Video summary
On this first day of September, Basil Chapman delivers a market update highlighting significant declines across major indices as the session closes with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 442 points at 52,745. The S&P 500 has also suffered an 8% drop, currently trading around 7625 after breaching its previous support level in the 7580s, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) remains slightly above its left-side low but is down 10 points at 706.56. The Russell 2000 (IWM) shows particular weakness with a sharp downward movement that forms part of an arching pattern known as the H pattern, which signals potential further downside risk for investors watching these key benchmarks.
Sector-specific performance reveals mixed but generally negative trends, with the semiconductor ETF SMH falling 13% to 543 after barely holding its left-side low, though its weekly chart remains relatively stable. Precious metals and digital assets are also under pressure, with gold dropping sharply by 103 points below its 200-period moving average at 4377, indicating poor market action. Bitcoin has pulled back to 77,365, down 1830 from recent highs; while it is currently outperforming gold in terms of resilience, the speaker notes that the day is still young and further developments could alter this dynamic.
The bond market presents a contrasting yet concerning picture, as ultra-short-term Treasury yields are rising, evidenced by the inverted ETF EBT moving higher. This rise in yields contradicts the prevailing expectation that rates would remain stable or fall over the coming months and years, creating uncertainty for fixed-income investors. The speaker emphasizes that this divergence between actual yield movements and long-term expectations could pose significant problems if not addressed soon, adding another layer of complexity to the current market environment.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to how these arching patterns and broken support levels will influence trading strategies in the coming hours. The formation of the H pattern on multiple charts suggests that short positions may be justified as moving averages turn negative, reinforcing bearish sentiment across equities and commodities. As Basil Chapman prepares to take over for Tom O'Brien later in the show, he promises to provide deeper analysis on monthly and weekly charts once the immediate volatility settles, offering clarity on whether these declines represent a temporary correction or the beginning of a broader market downturn.
Read the full video transcript
This is TFN N, the Tiger Financial News
Network.
>> [groaning]
[music]
>> TFN N headline news update.
>> Good afternoon everyone. Basil Chapman
here on this very first day of
September.
Tuesday, we're
looking at the Dow down 442 at this 3:00
p.m. market update. 52,745
it went underneath the left side low
that was the peak a trough day.
And that means we've made this arch
pattern that we call the H pattern. I'll
talk about it when we get back. It's
going to be quite important. Let's go to
the S&P. The S&P right now,
so the Dow's down 84%, S&P's down 8%.
E-mini S&P got 7624
down 61. It took out its left side
low the next key support level will be
down here at in the 7580s
and we're at 7625.
QQQ
hasn't taken out that left side low yet,
but it doesn't look too great and it's
down 10 at 706.56. I'll talk about the
monthly and weekly charts when we return
from the Tom O'Brien show. I'll be
sitting in for Tommy. Let's go to the
IWM the Russell 2000. That's a lot
weaker. That's down look at that sharp
move in that H pattern coming in down
very sharply.
One of the reasons we've been short is
looking at this arching over and then
the 9-period moving average went
negative.
Same with the Dow. Let's go to the SMH
as quickly as we can. SMH down 13.
Actually, holding well took out just
barely taking out the left side low.
It's at 543, but it is arching over.
Weekly chart is still holding okay.
Let's go to gold. Gold is down. This is
sharp down 103. Look below the 200
period moving average at 4377.
Not good action at all. We're looking at
the Bitcoin also pulling back. It was
holding very well. It's still only down
1830 at 77,365.
I think it's I said earlier in my show
this morning that I think it's going to
hold better than gold. But we'll see. At
this point it is, but we'll
the day is young. Let's go on to bonds.
EBT, that's the inverted that's the
ultra short term 20 year Treasury bond
ETF running up. So the yields are
actually moving higher. But as I've said
for for a month and a year or two now
it's not higher. That's going to be a
problem. We'll talk about that too when
I get back. This is Basil Chapman
sitting in for Tom O'Brien for the Tom
O'Brien show coming up in a few moments.
I'll be back. Looking forward to seeing
you. Let's see where the Dow is going to
be in the S&P
at the close today.
>> [music]