Video summary
The video begins with a live market recap from TFNN on Good Friday afternoon, highlighting the choppy trading conditions as markets approach options expiration. The S&P 500 is noted to be up by one point at 7708, having recovered quickly from intraday lows, while the NASDAQ 100 rises slightly despite recent security concerns involving OpenAI. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its struggle, failing to reach new highs and remaining below previous peaks, a trend that has persisted through the week. The Russell 2000 also faces headwinds, dropping by about 0.7%, while the ten-year Treasury yield hovers near 5% and the US dollar maintains strength around the 100.20 level, reflecting ongoing volatility in the broader financial landscape.
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on interest rate expectations and their impact on investor portfolios, particularly for retirees. The host explains that while the market currently prices in a roughly 50/50 chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming October meeting, the cumulative effect of potential hikes over the next year is already largely reflected in current yields. Even if the Fed were to raise rates aggressively across multiple meetings through December and into early 2026, the total increase would be relatively modest in basis points compared to where yields currently stand. This suggests that while there is pressure for yields to rise further due to geopolitical factors like the war in Ukraine, a dramatic surge back to previous higher levels is not immediately expected, though volatility is anticipated over the next three to four months.
Crude oil prices are also featured as a bright spot in the weekly performance, showing a strong turnaround after rejecting key resistance levels near $100 with increased trading volume. The host advises viewers to regularly review their portfolios given these shifting market dynamics, noting that cash equivalents and fixed-income instruments have become increasingly attractive. Money market accounts are currently offering rates around 3.35%, while certificates of deposit (CDs) provide even better returns, with short-term options yielding over 4% and five-year ladders approaching 4.7%. For retirees who may be nearing or in retirement, these guaranteed returns offer a compelling alternative to remaining heavily invested in equities like the NASDAQ or S&P, allowing them to lock in significant annualized returns while preserving capital against inflation and market swings.
Read the full video transcript
in.
Shame on me. Did that whole intro and I
was muted somehow. Good Friday
afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming
to you live from TFN. just after 3 pm
Eastern time. It's options expiration
and we got markets right now chopping
around. Let's get right into it. We got
an S&P up by one point trading at 7708
right now. You accelerate to lows at
about 1215 and we're right back to where
we were on the open. NASDAQ 100 chip
stocks yet again even with open AI
getting hacked. We'll get into that in a
moment. NASDAQ 100 up by 3/10en% up 91
points 29,000 832. The Dow continuing to
struggle, right? Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday driving lower Tuesday and
Monday as well. All right, you got the
highs out there of 53,090. Right now,
we're catching a bit off the lows, but
the Dow off by 210%. 52,116 and the
Russell as well. Down 7/10% or 21
points. You, excuse me, you jump over
the 10ear. You talk about volatility. 5%
folks coming into the weekend. 5% is the
number on the 10-year. down by 11 ticks,
10526.
And with that higher yield, you did
catch a a bid this morning, but the
dollar gives it up, right? The dollar's
right back to where we were on
Wednesday.
And that's where yields are as well,
right? But you're talking about highs
there in the yields and the dollar's not
finishing at highs. Okay? Dollar's
finishing at 100.21. We're at highs this
morning. You jump over to gold continues
to hold out well. Okay, you get the
dollar at 100.20 and you got gold at
4421 up by half a percent. The equities
down by half a percent, 9543, but again,
you know, you're talking about 10 year
at 5%. You're talking about a dollar
above 100 and we got the GDX sitting at
95. And eventually, folks, all right,
think you're going to see these yields
already have a lot of hikes priced in.
Okay, the dollar's pricing that in as
well. The 10ear sitting right at 5%. Now
I keep talking about there's a very real
chance that we go higher from here.
Okay. The other side of that equation
though is there's a lot already priced
in. That's what you have to realize. For
yields to go higher, more have to get
priced in, right? And there's already a
lot priced in. More priced in in terms
of hikes than there were prior to
Wednesday. That's for sure. You take a
look in terms of what this market's
pricing in right now for the next
meeting October 28th.
Yeah, more likely than not that they
will hike. Okay, we're sitting at 3.75
to 4% right now. Market thinks pretty
close to 50/50 with a slight waiting to
a hike. You go out to December
and it's basically a 50/50 with a slight
waiting that they have one hike instead
of two over in the next
two meetings.
So the only way to get above that is to
go hike hike hike, right? And even if
you go hike, hike hike right now in
terms of we already went hike on the
last meeting. We go into
October 28th and then you go into
December 9th and you hike all the way,
that's only 12 basis points above where
we are right now. Now that would be on
your two-year. Okay, you go out to
January.
No, we're still talking about but now
the numbers three hikes over the next
four meetings and don't get too caught
up going into March. You know, stay a
little bit closer term because there's
going to be enough volatility, folks, in
the next 90 to 120 days. You don't have
to get caught up trying to go out 6
months into March. Very difficult with
how much volatility we're getting. But
that's quite a weekly, folks. No slowing
down just yet. The war, as in, man,
things were so good before the war. And
I'm not being it's it's a long time,
folks. We're bumping up now into
7 months and we have the 10-year just
not stopping. Pretty remarkable. 3.98
was the number. So, it's an adjustment
over 6 months, but guess what? Not
necessarily going back to that number
anytime soon. Doesn't mean we have to go
higher, but the forces right now lining
up. Pressure on yields to go higher and
the dollar at a critical level as in
this has been resistance for some time.
It's been support. Nice round number of
100 and we're back there. 100.20.
Jump over to crude.
Come on, Thinker Swim. Come on. There we
go. How's that for a weekly now? That's
that's what you like to see in terms of
a turnaround. Okay, that's encouraging,
folks.
Last week we had a short trading week,
but you reject this 100 area, right? You
take out the other, you do it with
volume. Crude, that's your weekly. You
take a look at the daily. Yeah, we're
going to get some volume today as well.
Crude already approaching 300,000
contracts
and on a weekly basis you reject some of
those highs and that's what has the
market accelerating a bit to end the
trading session so far. Yeah, part of
this acceleration right here is crude
245 as well.
you know, talking about yields, folks.
All right?
You know, never never too never too busy
in the day to do a little bit of just
looking over your portfolio, okay? And
this is not a stock a stock show that's
going to tell you to just go sell your
stocks and go buy fixed income, but we
should all be making sure that we're
aware aware of the yields that are out
there right now. And if you know people
that are in, you know, maybe they're
later on in their retirement, okay?
Maybe they were in equities and they've
had a heck of a run. Maybe they're later
on in their retirement, right? Maybe
somebody retires when they're 65 or 70
and now here we are five or 10 years
later and it's been a heck of a run. Now
they're 80 and they're still heavily
invested in maybe the NASDAQ or the S&P.
Okay? And depending on the need for some
of that money going forward,
you got five-year CD rates, folks,
pushing a ladder near almost 5% itself.
And that one is nice because you get to
roll them over. I'm going to pull it up
right now. But yeah, you're going to
start, you know, I always say if if you
have any money, folks, whether it's
sitting in
uh bank account as the Fed is hiking,
right? Those money market accounts,
they're all going up. Okay, that's the
way it works. That's the overnight
lending rate and that's what money
markets are based out of off of. And so,
yeah, it's going up. Let me see if I can
find.
So, what do we got? The Fidelity Money
Market right now is earning 3.35.
Okay, that's what the Fidelity money
market's earning. That's the overnight.
That's your just your cash sitting in
your account. 3.35.
Now, that's just if you need access 24
hours a day to that income, right? But
if you're talking about a CD, a 9-month
CD is getting four and a quarter. A 3mon
CD, folks, 90 days, 4.1%.
Okay? And then yeah, if you push out a
five-year ladder, you're pulling
somewhere near about 4.65 4.7%.
You know, you run a 5year ladder like
that, folks, that is a 25% return
guaranteed over your money over 5 years.
for retirees.