Video summary
Larry Pesavento opens the market update by highlighting a significant rally in the S&P 500 that began on Tuesday following Federal Reserve news, which has sustained momentum for three consecutive days to reach levels near 7739. He emphasizes a core trading philosophy where investors should focus on buying the strongest assets and selling the weakest ones, noting that while recent market patterns have repeated historical rallies, the current situation presents specific risks. The speaker warns that failing to capitalize on these trends or seeing an inability to sustain gains by Friday is not a positive sign for the broader market outlook.
The analysis then shifts to the Russell index, where Pesavento points out a precise technical formation involving a 61% retracement from July highs and a subsequent move down to complete an ABCD pattern to the downside. He illustrates how the market opened with a small rally that acted as a perfect 38.2% retracement of that same level before continuing its descent, demonstrating the index's adherence to specific Fibonacci levels. This structured movement suggests that the index is following a predictable path that traders should monitor closely for potential further declines.
A critical warning emerges regarding the proximity of current prices to previous lows, with the speaker noting that the market is only thirty points away from breaking out and taking out the established low. He describes this scenario as a very bad sign, especially given the expectation of a short-term rally that has not materialized by Friday in an up week. The inability to hold gains or push higher indicates underlying weakness that contradicts the earlier optimism generated by the Federal Reserve's announcements.
Finally, Pesavento revisits the S&P 500 chart to reinforce the importance of watching these specific retracement levels, particularly around the 61% mark which previously aligned with European market highs. He encourages viewers to remember these technical markers as they provide clear signals for market behavior, suggesting that missing these key levels could lead to unfavorable trading decisions. The segment concludes by urging traders to stay vigilant as the market approaches these critical support zones where further downside risk may materialize if the anticipated bounce fails to occur.
Read the full video transcript
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>> T F N N headline news update.
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>> Hey folks, Larry Pesavento for T F N N.
Well, we started a big rally here in the
S&P here
on Tuesday when the Fed came out and
we've rallied up here now for 3 days.
We've rallied up to 74, excuse me, 7739.
It was the same rallies that we had
before as you can see. They've repeated
them over and over again. But the real
beauty of this, folks, is we always talk
about if you're going to do something,
if you're going to buy the weakest
If you want to sell the Let's try it
again. If you want to go short, you want
to sell the weakest. If you want to buy
something, you want to buy the
strongest. So let's take a look at the
Russell because the Russell is This was
making an exact 61% retracement from the
high that we had way back here July. Go
back and take a look at the Russell,
you're going to be able to see it very,
very clearly. Here's where we were last
night. It's going to be very, very
simple to see.
There's the same thing. Now here's the
Russell last night making a perfect Are
you ready for this? Exactly 382 and it's
come down and it's now completed an A B
equals C D to the downside right there.
Done exactly what it's supposed to do
and then early in the morning, as you
can see, just as the market opened, the
market had a little bit of a rally. And
if we take this down to a smaller time
frame, I think you'll be able to see
that that was nothing more than a
beautiful 382 of that same level. Oh,
yeah, went to the
Well, you could see it was a fast move,
but went exactly to there and here's
where we are right now. Folks, we are
only 30 handles away from taking the low
out up here and that's a very, very bad
sign if it does happen. We've said that
before. We were looking for a little 3
to 4-day rally, but we can't even be up
on a Friday in an up week.
That's not a good sign, boys and girls.
It really isn't. Let's take a look at
that S&P here for just a second and
we'll get it right back up here cuz
there's where we were last night. Now,
what I was doing last night, I was
watching this on that 61% retracement.
So, what I did was I popped up and I had
the European market up and there was
right there. There's the European high
came in exactly where it should have
right there at the 61. There was your
382 retracement, boys and girls.
You got to remember these things. Well,
you don't have to, but be good if you
did. There's one right there. Okay, if
we missed that one,
how about taking this one? Let's [music]
take a look at this one.
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