September 17th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] Welcome back, folks. We got the markets in positive territory today. And right now, as we do each and every Tuesday at 30 and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time, folks, we talk to our man Tim Orard, author of the Orid Oracle. You can check out Tim's website, folks. Oracle.com. You see Tim right there. And don't forget, if you head on over to the front page of TFN, you hit that services banner, you'll see Tim's got two great webinars, folks. Six secret ratios every trader should know. We talk about many of those ratios here with Tim and the secret science of market tops and how to identify them. They reach only 149 bucks. You sign up, you get on your members page forever, folks. You can watch as many times as you like. Tim Ward, good afternoon. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Got a little bit of surprise here. Um, >> right. Yeah, >> if I talked [laughter] to you I was I was just not to jump in, but I say if I talked to you yesterday or almost anybody yesterday at about 4 p.m. say where are we going to be? Quite a turnaround, but please let's get into it. Tim, quite a market for sure, man. >> Yeah, we actually u this uh oh this this is the uh daily spy. Uh this is the u June high. This is July high that comes in around give or take uh uh 756 area. Um, anyhow, what's important, we had a trend close yesterday of 1.17. We had a downtick reading of 789. And I always keep saying to my subscribers, if you get panic in the market, you're going into a low or get near a low. And we had panic uh trend, anything above trend close of 1.2 shows panic. And any tick below minus 200 shows panic. So, we got uh readings, you know, much higher than those. So um anyhow we had panic and we got >> there was some panic in the market yesterday. So right I mean there was man yesterday afternoon that market ripped 120 points on the S&Ps like it was nothing man. So that's pretty cool when you put it over to the trend and the tick. Yeah. >> Yeah. So we got so they raised the race yesterday a quarter of a point and probably caused the panic but normally you can actually tell where a support area is. Normally you get down to a sport uh ideally you want to see panic at that sport. If it does then obviously panic is a bottom area and um so any we had panic at the exact right spot which is where the previous highs was. So that support so now we got to have u a sign of strength off this low and I did this earlier today. This volume is not uh you know obviously way down there but um volume's not ideal here. We could still be in a topping pattern. Not sure yet. uh as long as this uh 755 area holds and actually if we even come back down to it and we start getting these trend readings and tick readings up in this vicinity again that would imply this is be strong sport maybe we get a rally going here I don't know uh but on a bigger time frame uh this is the bottom window is the is the VIX next window higher is the SP SPIX VIX ratio and the top window is the weekly the uh S&P and um so I kind of combine indicators here. I combine the S&P VIX ratio, the weekly SPX VIX ratio along with the weekly S&P. And the reason why I'm doing a weekly, not a daily, daily gets spun around quite a bit. Uh so I kind of flipped the weekly and weekly kind of smooths everything out. And the reason why I got green, yellow, and pink are because if the uh where's my pointer? Okay, there it is. All right. When it's yellow um or actually when it's green like here, that that is when both the weekly S&P is above mid Ballinger band and the weekly S&P uh VIX ratio is above its Ballinger band. That's a definite uptrend. When you get into the yellow part, that means the S&P weekly S&P is above the mid Ballinger band and the weekly S&P is below the Ballinger band. Now, it's not a sell signal. This is a warning signal that could develop into a sell signal. And it didn't. Uh the S&P uh VIX ratio went above and smooth Ballinger band. So, it turned back to green. And we got another yellow uh yellow area here back in February of this year. uh cuz the S&P 500X fell below it mid Ballinger band right there and the S&P still above it. Well, finally the S&P fell below it Ballinger band along with the S&P fix ratio still below it Ballinger band. That's where you get your decline. And right now we did have uh yesterday this was below uh the S&P VIX ratio was below his mid Ballinger band and but the S&P was not uh you can kind of see it over here but we were actually below it yesterday and today uh we're back above it. >> So you're back into the green area again. And a lot of times this S the VIX leads the S&P. So, if if the VIX is not showing any um bearish setup here, I I think we're okay so far. I thought we might get a sell signal here and so far not. And actually, I did check the American Association individual investors uh report uh came out yesterday and it showed 53% bears and that's a big jump up. Previous reading was I think it was around 38% bears. So just yesterday's reading put the bears over 50%. And a lot of times majority are are wrong. And so if you get 50% of the public bearish or the traders bearish on the market, chances are that market's going to keep rallying. So we'll have to wait see if that turns out to be true this time. But there's a lot of bears all of a sudden because of a quarter point raise yesterday. So I thought that was interesting. So I'm a little bit nervous. Uh but I'm not seeing anything uh real serious here. Here's kind of a a more kind of shorter term. You can kind of see the a sell signal. Uh we had a sign of strength through the previous highs which is the highs of June July right there. You're back on it. Now you had uh panics in the Dixon trend suggesting this area still may be support. And so now we're going to look for a rally. Um, and the things I'm kind of watching, uh, the old wag breast thrust indicator. We did hit 41, um, I don't know, a few days ago or a couple of days ago or below 04 hits like I think 38 and needs to go from 04 to 6 in 10 days uh to show a sign of strength and that kind of leads the way for a a market rally that could last several weeks if not several months. So it depends on this next rally what happens from here. If we get a if we get the swag breast thrust indicator to jump up to 6 in the next 10 days. Uh I say we're all clear. Um here's another indic uh indicator. This is the um kind of a momentum indicator. Keep bringing them up. Normally tops the RSI. The top one is a 14 RSI. But the next RSI, you see how bad these rallies are? Uh they just don't come off, you know, you get kind of a uh you don't really get a rally off the lows. And so if yesterday's low Well, we're done already. We'll come back to it. >> We're halfway there. We're done with that segment, but we got one more, folks. We'll finish up with this and then we'll get into some metals as we got this markets. Market's continuing. We got NASDAQ 100 up by 500 points right now, folks. S&P's up by 88 and yeah the VIX 1546 Tim 1546 coming right back with Tim folks >> welcome back folks we're talking with Tim or of the or Oracle and yeah that VIX Tim yesterday we hit 1894 and here we are sitting at 1550 quite a number but please uh jump into it I see you got the spy still up there >> yeah okay so this next rally has to show a sign of strength to get off this low. And so again, you know, the Zwag breast trust indicator has to go from 04 to 6 in 10 in 10 business days. And so that's one area to look for sign of strength. This is kind of a a price momentum type thing, which is another type of sign of strength. And it has to get up uh you know, preferably up around uh you know 70 uh or better uh somewhere in that vicinity. The last highway 67. Um so that would be another clue but if it fails to get above you know 50 be a a sign. So this rally have to have some oomph behind it over the next several days uh for this market to keep it in an uptrend. So if we don't get a sign of strength I may be exing my position. So it all depends on the next rally. So anyhow that's one pointed out. RSI ideally you like to see it up around 70. Uh, and the wag breast thrust indicator. You you like to see some strength off those lows. So, let's get to the the gold market. I'm still long S&P. Gold market. Uh, uh, it's actually looking okay. A couple of days ago, this is the u uh the uh premium discount for the uh Sprout uh gold fund trust. So, uh, anything below, uh, minus 2 and a half, 2 and a/4%. Normally, the GDX is at a a short-term low. Uh, we're coming around 2.24 right now. A couple of days ago, I think it was 2.82. And, uh, so I'm think we're making a low in here. I marked all the times when the, uh, premium uh, for this Sprout Physical Gold Trust was below uh, uh, yeah, minus 2.25. And that's all these lines. in here. So, um, so it's kind of a sentiment indicator. So, it's ideally this is probably some sort of a low in this vicinity. And also, GDXG ratio. I do a lot with this ratio. I look on the weeklies, uh, the monthlies, the dailies, and I look for divergences. And, um, anyhow, when GDX is outperforming GLD, this ratio is rising. And when GLD is outperforming GDX, this ratio is declining. In bull markets this ratio rises and if you can see here um let's see which one window do okay this is the uh this is a GDXG rate no that's GDX so this is a GDXG ratio here if you notice as market rallies this ratio rallies and you see a divergence back in uh it looks like last September you got the ratio going down with the S&Ps going up that predicted that low or that pullback and over the last Um this is the last March high, February high. If you notice, the ratio is making higher highs here. Uh this high here is higher than the last high. And the GDX has not made a higher high yet. Uh so what that implies, if the ratio leaves GDX, uh then we're going to at least go back to the March highs. So I think this is just a a minor consolidation what's going on here, uh in an uptrend. Uh there are some other reasons too but on a bigger time frame um this is the um keep talking about this but this is uh the ratio going back 2013 in other words this ratio has bounced around uh which one is this? This is yeah xu to GLD ratio and it's been bouncing around between 04 uh 0.04 04 to 0.08 give or take and we're we're we're just holding above or holding at the highs even though uh the XAU in this case is pulled back the ratio really kind of just stayed close to its highs. So I'm thinking this ratio is breaking out and this is [clears throat] kind of a little bit smaller window here at the ratio but you can see the ratio is actually higher than the U XU the ratio made higher highs where the XAU has not made the higher highs and so I'm thinking this ratio is breaking out and so we're the next upside resistance is basically at approximately 2.17 area which is up here is basically the 2010 2011 highs and I think that's where we're going to go. If that ratio goes to.17 we're at 0.9 so it's close to a double give or take a double.09 09 you get 0.18. So we're in that vicinity that that means that X AU say is 400 we're 399 um 399. So this so XAU would go to 800 and that's without gold moving gold will move with it. So I think there's extreme good opportunity over the next several months or actually over the next several years that uh this if this ratio goes to point.17 uh these gold stocks are going to roar. So um it'd be it'd be interesting. But anyhow, that's why I'm kind of I also got the X AU to the S&P ratio and I did the ratio and to get it upside to get it to the next upside resistance that ratio would would basically triple. What that would mean is that gold stocks will outperform the S&P stocks by 300%. But this is over a longer period of time. This is not over like next 12 months or something. But I think the the door is open for the next several years. That gold stock is probably where it's going to be. And things may change. And if they do change, these charts will change with it. And right now, the charts are saying this this market's going to go much higher over the over the uh even on the short term, intermediate term, and actually long term. I don't see a top of any consequence forming here even on an air term. So it could be exciting times. Uh, so it be watch be worth watching. So >> it, you know, the the GDX it is pretty remarkable how strong it's been. Um, and and we're sitting right now at 95 off the lows of 70 and it's it's, you know, I feel like I just agree a lot of what you're saying and the ratios say it, which is so cool. But boy, that GDX, man, even as gold pulls back, you know, it just keeps shaking it off, man. We're trading at 95 from 70. Um, and meanwhile, you got gold at 43.84. So, the equities, they just won't give it up right now, which is pretty cool. >> Yeah, I know it. Here, here's another thing here. It's kind of hard to see, but if you can kind of look at this count right here, this is probably a five count up. Uh, you got one, two, three, uh, three be there. Then we're going into an ABC down. Right now, I'm not an expert an Elliot wave, but this is probably a wave two down going on. Just an ABC. Looks like another wedge type pattern. And so what that means is this this wedge type down from the um recent what was it? August highs, whatever it is. Uh that's probably the halfway point of the next move up. And if you do the numbers on that, it comes out around 130 on that. If that works out to be the halfway point, well 130 is actually above the previous highs of 117 of the March highs. So, um, so I don't know. Um, I just there's a lot of stuff here. I I thought, uh, we may have a bigger consolidation, but I think that's I thought the consolidation would started around 117. And I don't think that's going to be the case. Looks like to me we're just going to blow through 117 and probably get up to around 130 before they start the next consolidation. So, we'll see how that develops. But we did come off the last low and Elliot wave five count to the upside. So that means the current thing down right now is probably a wave two. So [music] we'll see how that works out. We'll watch that going forward though. And you know the one day it would make sense as in either it's a consolidation, a little pullback. We just traded from 70 to 105 50%. So you pull back to 95 man and now we're getting quite a little bounce. Tim, appreciate the updates as always man. Appreciate the analysis. We look forward to talking to you on Tuesday. Have a great week. Great weekend, man. Okay. Look forward to talking to you then. Thank you.