Video summary
Good afternoon everyone, as we kick off this turnaround Thursday on TFNN, the market has staged a dramatic recovery with major indices surging significantly higher. The S&P 500 is currently up by 1.1%, having climbed 86 points to settle at 7709, effectively reclaiming levels seen earlier in the morning session after reaching a high of 7722 in premarket trading. The Nasdaq 100 has been an even stronger performer today, gaining 1.7% or 481 points to close at 29,738, while tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon have all posted substantial gains ranging from 2.2% to 12.2%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lagged behind its peers, rising only 0.6%, a trend that mirrors its underperformance from the previous day as growth stocks continue to lead the rally.
Despite the equity market's strength, fixed income markets are showing signs of volatility and a partial reversal of recent trends, particularly regarding yields which have pulled back slightly but remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently sitting at 4.94%, down from yesterday's high volume close near 5.06%, yet mortgage rates are persisting near the 7% mark after rising for a fourth consecutive week. This shift indicates that we are in a new economic environment where yields have remained high for over six months, moving away from the lower rate era of just a few years ago, though there is hope that refinancing opportunities may return if rates eventually drop back toward 4.5%. While the yield curve has seen a one-day bounce on decent volume, the persistence of higher rates suggests we are not entirely out of the woods yet.
Commodities and precious metals have experienced a mixed session, with gold giving back some of its overnight gains after hitting highs near $2,420, currently trading just six dollars higher at roughly $2,360. Silver has shown more resilience, rallying 1.5% to reach $31.75, while platinum has remained essentially flat around $1,087. Copper continues its upward trajectory with a 1.6% gain, driving up major miners like Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan by over 3%. The precious metals sector, represented by the GDX ETF, has recovered significantly to match yesterday's opening levels, reflecting investor sentiment that is shifting back toward risk assets despite the slight retreat in gold prices.
Finally, market sentiment appears notably less fearful compared to the previous day's escalation, as evidenced by the VIX volatility index dropping sharply to 15.50. This decline signals a reduction in the "insurance premium" investors are paying for downside protection, suggesting that the selling pressure has largely subsided following yesterday's turbulence. With trading volume on the 10-year Treasury remaining robust at around 1.8 million contracts, the market is digesting these moves before facing a short trading week ahead. Overall, the session highlights a clear divergence where technology and growth stocks are pushing higher while yields remain sticky near 7%, creating a complex but generally bullish landscape for equities as we move forward.
Read the full video transcript
in.
>> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien
coming to you live from T F N N, quite a
turnaround Thursday. We got markets
dramatically higher, and you look at
that S & P right now, up by 1.1%
and we're right back to where we were
almost this morning, pushing the upper
echelons of the intraday action. You
were as high as 7722 premarket, and
right now we're up by 1 1.1% up 86
points at 7709.
Nasdaq 100, we're up by 1.7% right now,
up 481 points, 29,738.
We got a Dow right now, little bit of a
laggard. Dow, quite the underperformer
yesterday, and underperforming today as
well as is the Dow, up by 6/10% but as I
just mentioned, right? Russell up by uh
excuse me, Nasdaq up by 1.6%
but the Russell and the Dow
underperforming compared to the Nasdaq
leading the way and that S & P up by 86
points.
All right. We talk about what else we
got going on.
All right, sorry about that, folks.
We jump over to yields right now. You
got that 10-year
up by 14 ticks, pretty remarkable. We
get back everything that we're talking
about yesterday, right? We got 10-year
right now sitting at about 4.95.
Let's pull it up to be exact as we're up
14 ticks.
And yeah, 4.94 actually as I come to
you. 4.94 is the number on the 10-year.
You jump over the dollar right now,
dollar at 100.22
after almost hitting 100 earlier in the
session.
And gold's giving back some of the
gains. Had been as high as 4420 but
quite a clawback in gold as well. So,
reversal of almost everything.
Right? Gold down 100 bucks, up 100 bucks
in the overnight. Gold up 6 bucks right
now and you get the GDX. How about it,
man? Up by 3.3% right back to where we
were on the open yesterday. Silver right
now up 1.5% up a dollar. How about that
rally? From 6275 yesterday.
Early in the session, we make it as high
as 6667.
Jump over to platinum right now.
Basically flat on the session at 1787.
Jump over to copper up by 1.6%. How's
that for a run on copper? Some of these
copper stocks, yeah, Southern Copper up
by 3.2% right now. Freeport up by 2.3.
We jump over the VIX.
No selling premium in this market. No
insurance premium, I should say. 1550 on
the volatility index. Quite a drop-off
from the escalation yesterday. And yeah,
you're talking about quite a number. But
yields are in focus, folks. We have
yields pulling back a bit, but right
near. Now, you take a look at the
10-year.
Okay, and yeah, it's quite a reversal.
We take back everything that happened
yesterday.
But we're not out of the woods just yet,
folks. Okay? It's been quite a run for
the last 6 and 1/2 months to lower price
and higher yield. We got a one-day
bounce going. You take a look at the
volume on the 10-year right now. We're
bouncing on about 1.8 million contracts.
We're coming in at 2.7 yesterday.
Okay, and you put this thing on a
weekly.
And yeah, we have a little bit of a
bounce and you have it on volume. You
make it all the way down to 10521.
But even on a weekly, you go positive.
Last week, you close things out at
10605. We're a couple ticks above that
price point.
Now,
you're coming into a short trading week
last week. So, that was a tremendous
amount of volume.
We've basically hit that volume on four
trading days again, right? We had four
trading days last week, four trading
days this week. We bounce on volume. We
got one more trading day. The 10-year
though, 4.94 is the number on that
tenure right now.
And yeah, when we're talking about
yields, let's throw on Oh, that's not
it. Yeah, there it is.
Approaching 7%.
6.95 is the number they have. Now, I've
seen this numbers as high as 7.22. 7.22
the number out there, but mortgage rates
rising for a fourth week, bumping up
against 7%. 6.95 is the number from 6.76
a week earlier. And what I keep saying,
folks, is
you know,
if you thought 6.76 was rough, right?
How's 6.95?
Okay, we are in a new environment right
now in terms of yields, and don't think
we're going back to the time when
mortgages were pumping out at 4.5%, and
guess what? If we do, you can refinance.
Right?
Yeah, but right now, yields persisting,
mortgages pushing about 7% right now.
Markets, tech stocks pushing higher.
Nvidia up 2.7%.
How about these numbers? Microsoft up
12.2, Amazon up 2.2. We're coming back,
taking a look at some equities, folks.
We'll be right back.