September 16th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. Let's go to Mike in Southern California. Hey Mike, what's going on? >> Hey Tom, nice to talk to you again. And I have to start out and first tell you I love this trading room. This thing is [music] great. This app, it works great and uh getting all your information. You're like instantly there. No delay, nothing. >> I know. I listen I appreciate your growling problem with us. >> Your channel is in my pocket all day long. It's wonderful. [laughter] >> Thank you, man. Thank you. >> Now, Tom O'Brien [music] Oh, thank you, Mr. Producer. How'd that happen? Welcome, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN. It's Fed Day and we get a 25 basis point hike. Yes, Chairman Wars. So, he just finished up his press conference. We got a 10-year yield pushing 5% right now. It's a unanimous decision. So, they hike 25 basis points and we'll see where we go from there. But right now you have markets with an S&P that just dropped about 70 points from where we came into that decision. We're negative by about half a percent right now. Tech stocks carrying this market to a degree. We were dramatically higher. You give up all those gains. We're flat right now on the NASDAQ 100. 29,241. The Dow gives it up down by 1.2%. 51,924 and the small caps as well. Down by 9/10% of 25 points trading at 2868. I mentioned the 10-year and there it is. So, we get a hike and we get yields higher on the 10-year right now. Right at 5%, the yield on the 10 year, we're negative by five ticks. 10525. The dollar catches a bid. How's that? Above 100. And we'll see if this can be a decisive move. Now, we've bumped up against this 100 price point before. We're just above 100 right now. Up 61 pennies at 100.22 on the dollar. But yeah, you're catching a bid today. Now, metals, that's weighing on metals. Gold just gave up a 100 bucks from where we were coming into that number. You got a brief spike actually to 4,400 right out of the gate at 2:00 and then you give it up. So, we got stronger dollar, you got higher yields, and you get gold down by $38 on the session. Gold was higher by 50 or 60 bucks. So, you give up basically $100 on that move. We're trading at 4294 right now on gold down by 9/10%. Silver down by about 6/10%. All the metals were in the green coming into this. You got platinum right now down 1.5% 1751. We check in on copper trading at 644 right now. We take a look at the gold equities. GDX 6196 and we'll see in terms of if WSH has the conviction, if the Fed has the conviction, right, to do what's necessary, but they do the first hike and that would be the first step. They raised by a quarter point and as I mentioned unanimous decision there have been denters recently. So now the overnight rate 375 to 4%. Okay. And the median forecast you're looking for an additional hike coming this year. Timelier return that was that was getting a lot of attention. Okay. As that statement comes out that this rate hike will support a timelier return to 2% inflation. a sober decision, a serious decision, responsible decision, one we've been preparing for and thinking about in my 110 or 120 days here. And yeah, he finishes up that press conference and one of the things at that press conference actually was no follow-up questions allowed. Less is more in the Asia wash. So, no follow-up questions. a tighter press conference wraps up in under a half hour. Under a half hour, no more 45 minutes like was the case with Powell. They wrap it up and boy, since he wrapped it up, things accelerating. S&P's continuing to drop. Gold continuing to drop right now. We check back in on yields and yeah, we got the 10-year right now just above 5%. You go up and down the curve. Okay, you got your 2-year up about seven basis points, 473. Now remember, the 2-year is at 473. And even after they hike, they're now at 375 to 4%. Okay, there's a huge difference from where the Fed is to where the 2-year is. They have one more hike priced in by the year end. There's only two more meetings by the year end. So maybe they go hike, skip a meeting, hike. But nonetheless, you're talking about two out of three hikes to end the year for their final three meetings. And there's your tenure sitting at now 5.01. But on the 30 year, you get a little easing market saying maybe they will get inflation under control. But you got higher yields and even that tenure sitting right at 5% right now on the 10ear. Yeah, you're talking about the dollar rising and markets giving it up, man. The day we got we got 49 minutes left to go in the trading day as markets accelerate. Now crude, you back off from the overnight highs at 10675. We're trading at 10254 right now. You take a look at the heat map, okay? You're talking about financials. Look at these financials. Bank of America off 3.2%. Wells Fargo, similar action. Some of the consumer staples, Coke, Costco, we got Boeing down 5% right now. And then a little bit of a mixed bag in technology. Nvidia up by nearly 1% right now. Intel with some good news with SKHENX this morning. It was up by 5% at one point, but some of the big dogs out there as in Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom down by 610%. Let's jump around to some of those equities. Kick it off with Nvidia shares. Yeah, they give it up. Take a look at Nvidia right now. 2134. You were all the way up today trading at 217 almost. You give up that action. Yeah, you got a lot of strength up here. Volume. Nvidia's one of the strongest equities, even as you get some volatility in the chip sector. Jump around to Amazon. Look how quickly you make a run to the bottom of that channel, man. All right, look at this channel. Well-defined since 2022. Okay, they come out with gang buster earnings in July. You hit 287. And remember where the air got sucked out of the room? That was actually Bezos. He had a planned sell. That was the first day. And just like that, here's Amazon $42 off of the highs made last month. Challenging the bottom of that channel. Amazon off 1.3% right now. Google off about 9/10% right now. Look at the volume drying up even on a weekly basis recently. That was a holiday week last week. This week so far, 42.6 million. Jump off to Microsoft. Yeah, Microsoft off 1.5%. Oh boy, folks. got quite a little acceleration going on in these markets. Look at this. They're getting their bets in order right after even Wars finished. Things accelerating with an S&P now down 100 points from where we came into that number. 100 points from where we came into that number. We hit 7694 just after 2:00 and we're at 7591. We check in on gold trading about 42.83. Let's take a look at gold. So gold's had some volume in the last few weeks. the metals, the equities have not, but yeah, we got some and we're going to get some action this week as well. 4,000's hanging out there. The way the metals are working right now as in you got gold off 47 bucks and you got a GDX off about 2.6%. You know, the equities though, folks, look at the run we've still had. Equities are still up nearly 30% from that $70 price point. 30% from that price point, but you're trading lower today. All right, folks. Stay tuned. We're coming back. We have a great guest, Elliot Wallen, senior vice president, institutional ETF strategist with direction. We'll be talking some ETFs. We'll be talking some metals, some mining ETFs in terms of gold miners, and we'll be talking, of course, some treasury ETFs on Fed Day. We're coming back with Elliot, folks. Stay tuned. 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We got an S&P right now right at session lows down 9/10% right now. Dow off about 800 points as markets accelerate in the south and great day folks. We're going to talk to our man Elliot Wallen. Elliot's a senior vice president folks institutional ETF strategist with direction. If you head on over to the front page of tfn.com folks you'll see those direction banners or you can just head to direction.com you can check out their products folks. They have a number of great leveraged and inverse ETFs and we're going to talk to Elliot about some of them right now. Elliot Wellenbach, welcome back to TFN. Good afternoon. >> Hey, Tommy. How you doing? Thanks for having me again. Excited to be here. >> Always a pleasure, man. You know, we talk to you usually on Wednesdays, Elliot. And that means uh every month or six weeks or so, we get you on a Fed day. And uh interesting one today. We got the first hike in three years. I know we're talking a little bit getting ready for this interview. I'm saying maybe we'll talk a little bit about treasuries. And boy, we got some movement today everywhere. But if we could kick it off with treasuries as we got yields right now 5% but we got some volatility everywhere. But for those traders, please talk to me about the ETFs that you guys have at direction and what you're seeing in treasuries right now. If we could kick it off there, Elliot. >> Yeah. No, absolutely. Uh I mean uh not not a surprise for 25 basis points hike today. Um and really it's a question of uh you know how high for how long. Um and it looks like another um you know hike is pencled in probably for uh 2026. And there's a few ways um you know to trade the treasuries. So longer duration treasuries are particularly sensitive to uh interest rate uh expectations. So we do have our 20 plus year uh triple leverage bull and bare uh ETFs. Uh that's TMF and TMV. And then if you're looking for uh the shorter end of the curve, we also do have the 7 to 10year Treasury Bull and Bear ETF, TYYD and TYO. And you know, these are short-term tactical trading tools. They're leveraged. Um so these are really meant for short-term tactical trading. And what's pretty cool, folks, over at direction.com, I always say it, but head on over. They got a great education center. And it's so cool you guys put out so much great information, Elliot, because just like you talk about, they're short-term trading vehicles, folks. and to understand, you know, how they move with these. If you hold them longer term, they're not necessarily going to match the underlying uh but a shorter term basis. Boy, we got some moves today. And you know, you look at treasuries and boy, everything's moving today. I just mentioned we got the Dow down almost 800 points right now. But the Russell as well in terms of small caps, Elliot down 1.3% right now. Higher yields a problem for some of these small caps. I know we got Tigers and Tigers in the den talking about the small caps. Talk to me about some of the small caps, please. >> Yeah. I know like you mentioned uh small capsu tend to be more rates or vulnerable to uh interest rates uh especially when uh they're higher for longer and um Russell 2000 uh a a great way to uh to trade off of that. We uh have a triple leverage ETF. Um you know bull and bare product again. Uh TNA uh that's the triple leverage bull product off of the Russell 2000. And then we have TZA that's the uh triple inverse. Uh so if you're uh you know if you're you know have the expectation looking to trade an inverse view on small caps um TZA is a great way to express that. >> You're seeing some action today man. TZA up by 4% right now. with a volume of 5 million shares on the day. Folks, you got some action over there. Uh, if we could talk semiconductors. So, of course, chips in focus, man. They're going nowhere anytime soon. The AI, I mean, we got all the AI companies now talking about potentially regulation, but semis holding up pretty well and NASDAQ today holding up very well compared to the other markets. But talk to me about semis, please. >> Yeah, definitely. I mean semis and uh just the AI trade has you know really been holding this market up for this year and uh the news out last week about uh with open AI and anthropic uh leaders um you know uh making a suggestion to uh slow down development and uh put some safety guard rails on. um you know has really made the uh the semiconductors pull back and se semiconductors kind of remain the highest beta way to express view on um you know the AI trade. So we do have um you know a bull and bear product 3x again on that. SOXL is the the uh NY semiconductor 300% bull product and then the inverse font is S O XS um and that's inverse 3X. And one thing interesting about the uh semis is the dynamic we've seen and more interesting the inverse relationship between semiconductors and software. Um so uh there has been some opportunity in the uh you know the the leaders in the software space. Um and we do have some uh leverage inverse single stock ETFs off of that. We have Palunteer um you know all these are going to be a 2x long on the bull side and single inverse on the bare side. PLTU that's 2x long. >> Oh you still there? I got you. Yes. Lost you for a second. I got you. >> Yep. Yep. And then uh we also Palo Alto Networks uh 2x long PL AU and then inverse P A uh P A L D as well as uh Adobe just a leverage long on that uh ADBU. Uh so some ways to trade uh the software stocks as well. Um and that you know that inverse relationship to the semiconductors. >> And then we got to talk about gold today, Elliot. We got gold moving with everything of course. Now, gold has been on a heck of a run, but not today, man. As the dollar explodes higher, we got yields. You got GDX down about 2.8%, but still quite a pop from those recent lows we've had. Uh for the gold bolts and and the gold haters out there, what do you got for gold, Todd? You got some great gold ETFs, man. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, definitely. uh like you mentioned uh you know it's kind of struggling of near uh term uh headwinds with uh rates higher for you know longer um gold not being um you know an interesting asset. Um, so we do have uh a 2x long ETF on uh gold on spot gold. That's UGLD. And then we have the gold miners um a way to uh you as a proxy trade to gold. And uh we do have the uh gold miners uh 2x bull uh nug 2x bear dust. And then if you're looking for the smaller the more junior gold miners, we also do have exposure there. We have a 2x long product. uh uh Jun NG and then a 2x bear product uh JDST. So, a lot of ways to trade uh gold, the gold miners. Um you know, a great proxy trade to gold with the gold miners if you're not looking to uh take a you know, leverage position on spot gold itself. >> And then I know that you guys are always coming out with great new products of course with all of the it's pretty amazing in terms of the companies. You got SpaceX, right? You got OpenAI, Anthropic, um SKH Highix, one of the other ones. Um but I wanted to talk about SpaceX real quickly because boy, you guys have quite an ETF here with Liftoff now today. It's lifting off today. SpaceX having quite a day today as they had news coming into this liftoff. Um but for when you guys are sitting around the direction office, I know you have so many great players there, but it's quite an interesting time in the ETF sector in terms of the demand right now. um the innovation that you guys are putting together with these products that are coming to market literally the day that you get the IPOs and talk to me a little bit about when you're putting these together. Is this something that you're you're you're you know the team and not to talk for the team but it's pretty exciting how these ETFs are all coming to market so quickly and the demand you know SpaceX liftoff's a great example. I mean the shares that this one's doing are tremendous. Um if you could just a little bit about just how you guys are really moving forward. It's pretty cool. >> Yeah. No, absolutely. Um, like you mentioned, you know, we're a leader in the the leverage inverse space. Um, and also in the single stock leverage inverse space. Um, like you mentioned um some of our uh more recent launches uh this summer were with SpaceX um ticker uh LF uh 2x bull product. And then we also actually do have the uh the inverse 2x uh the bare side of that LFD. Um and so some exciting stuff coming up as well. Um, but uh, you know, I really appreciate you having me on today. Oh, great. >> I appreciate it, Elliot, man. And those single stock ETFs, I think they're taking over. I tell people for active traders out there, they're just phenomenal, man. So, I appreciate the work you're doing. The team at Direction, man. Keep it up and we look forward to talking to you next month, Elliot. Thank you so much as always. >> Thank you, Tommy. Pleasure being on. See you next month. >> My pleasure. Take care, folks. Check it out. Direction.com and check out that education center. Great stuff out there. We'll come right back. Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. 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From the moment the market opens [music] until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert [music] hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor [music] you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions. Daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. [music] Welcome back, folks. And yeah, we got yield sire, dollar stronger, gold pulling back. We'll see if it holds now. We'll see what Treasury has to say about this. Uh we talk about treasuries and yeah, as I was talking to Elliot, folks, always a quick segment. Appreciate him coming on. Always great insight. And if you head on over to direction, folks, there's your education, okay? Hit that education banner. You start there. And I always bring this up because understanding, right? Understanding in terms of why they're daily investment vehicles, folks. This walks you through, okay? It walks you through the hypothetical examples of what happens, okay? And what happens to the underlying and then it walks you through the hypothetical examples, okay? When you're talking about either a market rising steadily, okay? Okay, so like a momentum market on the way up, a momentum market on the way up, a three times index, right? A three times bull index is actually going to overachieve the the projected three times performance of the index itself. In this example, you had the index of 25%. If your index ETF return of three times, that'd be 75, but no, the actual was 89. It's because of the way leverage is used in these three times funds. And it happens though in different ways. If you get a decline, well, if it declines steadily, you're actually going to lose less than three times. Okay? And the toughest part though is that if you get a flat but volatile, choppy market, then yeah, you can actually lose money when the index goes flat on a longer term basis. And that's because if the way you think about it is right, market goes up, you add leverage, it pulls back, right? That's that's an easy way. So you end up in the same spot, but meanwhile, you added leverage to a gain. You use your equity in that gain to add leverage so that when you pull back, you lost more than you made on the way up. Okay, but check out that education center. Great stuff. And yeah, ETFs. All right, markets seem to have found a bid right at last Thursday's low so far. You got an S&P sitting at 7,600 on the DOT, down by 7/10. NASDAQ off by nearly 3/10%. Same thing right down to that last Thursday low. Dow taking it on the chin, well below Thursday's low, 51,784. And the Russell as well as Elliot was saying, those small caps, folks, what happens is the small caps, they have a lot more sensitivity to the yields because they cannot get the same type of yields. And in terms of the longer duration, okay, they're shorter. They're shorter on the yield. They have more sensitivity to changes in yields. And so that's why you see them get hit today. Down by 1%. Jump over the dollar right now up to 100.27. And I mentioned let's see what Treasury is going to do, right? Cuz what do we have? We have a stronger dollar and we have higher yields. Well, may maybe Treasury is going to use some of those dollars to suppress the yields. Well, gold's certainly not seeing that today. you know, uh, you traded $42.99 right now. You're down 100 bucks from where we came into that number. Longer term, I think gold's going to be just fine. But yeah, that was that was a pretty hawkish unanimous decision to hike for the first time in 3 years. Okay. He was not going to talk about prejudging the forward meetings which is not surprising if you're listening to war what wars has been saying for any period of time but key takeaways and as I've been mentioning okay if you got money sitting in the bank anywhere folks go buy a CD or something make sure it's in a money market okay cuz those money markets are going up you got cash in a money market fund you're making more money with that money market fund Okay. And yeah, the dot plot 16 of the 18 officials expect to raise interest rates at least one more time by the end of this year. Two additional hikes in the median forecast drifting up to 4.1% from 3.75 in June. They see rates remaining at 4.1 next year, though eight officials saw them about 25 basis points higher. And that was the line. We'll support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal. Timelier. Time just keeps marching, man. What's the point of having a 2% goal if we're going to go a decade without having 2%. Imagine that. A decade, folks. Yeah. They now see core inflation at 3.4% at the end of this year. Up from 3.3% was their number in June. GDP growth of 2.3% compared to 2.2. Okay, not exactly great. If we got GDP at 2.3 and we got inflation at 3.4 and that is core folks and they're not worried about jobs. They're worried about inflation. They said it. He said it multiple times at that press conference. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. And yeah, no follow-up questions today. They weren't allowed. They weren't allowed. Bloomberg reporting prior that Michael McKe was told. So that press conference under a half hour. Chairman Powell lasts about 45 to 50 minutes at times. So it was tighter. He didn't want to have to deal with the back and forth. He gave his answer and that's the answer. And yeah, there's multiple things at play in terms of geopolitics, right? Corporate supply and good growth. Talking about that tenure at 5%. And folks, as I was talking about today, okay, don't think that somehow we take a look at the home builders, right? DHI, Dr. Horton down 1.6% today. Lara down 2 and a4% today. KB Homes down 2.6% today. But what I will say, folks, if you know somebody out there in the market looking for a starter home, okay, very difficult at the rates we're at right now, right? We got this recency bias that we were all optimistic that you're going to get a new Fed chair. We're going to get lower rates, right? Inflation's going to subside. You had no war going on. You had crude, okay, under $3 a barrel at that time. And I'm going back to this time right here. Okay. Crude at 54 bucks coming into the end of the year. Crude at 63 to $67 before the start of the war. Now, somebody knew it was happening. as crude goes from 55 almost to 70 before Iran begins and not necessarily mischievous but yeah market positioning itself ahead of that move okay but you bring all that back and yeah you're talking about a yield folks okay that is at 5% you're breaking away from these levels but don't think that we can't go higher we got a strong economy okay and we do have inflation and they don't think they're going to get inflation back until 2029 N. So, you know, War said it as well. The people who get hurt the most are the people who hold no assets. So, when I look at a young couple, right, say a young couple, cuz that's the easiest when you got two incomes, right? Cuz man, single person paying for a median income, median house, which is what, 350, 400 grand easy, depending on where you are, and that's the lower echelon. Add a 7.2% mortgage right now on one income. Very difficult. There's a lot of people out there with two week homes where it's still very difficult. All right? I'd encourage those people to try and get into a home if they can cash flow with a payment. Okay? Because don't wait and tell people that you know, folks, don't wait for rates to come crashing down. Number one, they may not. Not even crashing down. And number two, when they do come back down, okay, what's going to happen is you're going to see the housing prices go up to meet the payment, right? Right? You're going to have all these buyers come back in the market with lower rates and you're going to see housing prices potentially appreciate. We had 10 year at 5%. We'll come right back, folks. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. tfnN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction for up-to-date pricing and performance. Go to direction.com. [music] Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of [music] leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. The reality is that navigating financial [music] markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest [music] market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At [music] TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. [music] That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving [music] to find an edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters cover every aspect [music] of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front [music] page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. TFN has launched the Tiger Zen hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, [music] the Tigers Day, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. [music] There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm O'Brien. [music] >> Welcome back, folks. S&P is off by 56 right now. Markets bounce a little bit from that low yet again. S&P up about 25 points from that low after drifting lower though by the tune of what 120 points on the S&Ps. NASDAQ holding up relatively well. We're down just a quarter% right now. Dow taking it on the chin 51,750 and the Russell down by about 1% but we got a little bounce going on the Russell as well. 17 points to the upside there. We jump back to the 10-year and yeah, lower price, higher yield coming at you on a 10ear right now. 5% on the dot. Jump over that dollar. Catches a bid. DXY 100.25. Jump over the dollar yen. They're worried in Japan. Again, folks, this is remarkable, right? So, imagine you have Treasury working with Japan to strengthen the yen. Talking about the systematic problems that a weekend will have on global economies. And then you have a Fed hiking rates, strengthening the dollar, and weakening the yen. But what Treasury can do is they have a lot at their disposal. And don't get confused with when you're talking about Treasury and the Fed. They often work together, right? But they're two completely different positions from a political standpoint in terms of and [snorts] they're two different they don't have to be on the same page. They may have a fundamental difference in opinions and I'm not saying they do but we're going to get to see what plays out when you look at what Treasury is going to do as they're buying back our longerdated securities, right? They're willing to use the dollar to do that. And meanwhile, we have Treasury, excuse me, the Fed hike in rates, strengthening the dollar, weakening the yen. So, what's going to happen is Treasury going to work with Japan again? Are they going to come back in again? Right? So war hikes, dollar strengthens, yields go up on the 10ear and we have a weaker dollar uh excuse me a weaker yen. So then Treasury is going to then use those stronger dollars to support the yen again and suppress our yield. And that's going to be a battle. It is. And yeah, you look at this move. Okay, we're just back to where we were yesterday in gold and Monday on gold. You're sitting at 4,300 right now. We chopped around at 4,000 for a period of about 6 weeks from late June to that breakout in August. And it was a breakout, folks. Now, we're going to get some volume today, though. Look at this. You came into that number higher. You gave it all up. You take a look at the weekly. Yeah, we're not going to have the weekly volume yet, but we're going to do some volume, folks. Okay. Okay, but gold's point is gold's up 300 bucks trading from the 4,000 price point area. What is that? 7 1/2% basically. Okay, so gold's up 7 12% from that consolidation that we're in end of June through July. The equities is still up 30% folks. Okay, this thing chopping around at 70. Even if we call it 75, what? You're up 17 bucks from there. That's again what 22 23%. So you got the metal [clears throat] up 7%. And you got the medals up between 22 to 30%. Okay? And and you know, part of me wants to say, and don't be surprised if this is not the hiking agenda that he wants to represent it as, as the whole Fed wants to, right? They wanted to bring the strongest case they could, and they did with a unanimous rate hike. Unanimous. Okay, we've had a lot of dissenters. Not a single person was thinking about that in terms of talking about a dent. Okay. And you're talking about that and you are. And when you're talking about the denters, there's none. They all wanted to hike. You want to say hello? I got to finish. Okay. Go down there. Yeah. Go ahead. You can go out there. It's open. I got my man hanging out one more day. Yeah. Go ahead. Talk to me. It's all right. Yeah, I know. Oh, buddy. You're hanging in there. You're being so good. All right, hang out. All right, we take a look at this heat map. And yeah, you take a look at this heat map, baby. Sorry, I lost you there for a sec. And yeah, you no matter where you go folks, besides the tech, you know, look at this. Dow off 740 right now. Walmart down 410. Financials taking on the chin, man. Energy as crude pulls back today. Look at this NASDAQ 100 making a run. for positive prices. And this is kind of what it points to. You know, you don't think a market can handle higher yield right now, right? It's kind of what I talk about in the housing. Okay? These stocks are getting clobbered. Doesn't mean the housing stocks are a good buy. Okay? But when I'm talking about I'm talking about they can't make money cuz they're going to have to subsidize it. But same deal. I mean, this inflation even talking about they're not going to get it to 2% until 2029. 29. This going to be 10 years. 10 years. It's only 2026, folks. Okay. And so for the people that do hold no assets, it is a problem. And that is putting it lightly. All right. We jump around to some other equities. So Boeing, yeah, not what you want to hear. going into a Fed decision where markets rip lower. You got Boeing out there saying that yeah, their production and let me pull it up. I had it up and it jumped away. Let's pull it up here. So yeah, you got plenty of headlines right now from Boeing. So they got a Morgan Stanley conference says engine delays still hampering plans to raise the 787 production. Okay, engine delays still waiting on an engine seal fix from GE Aerospace for the 777X. Wait, not a lot of good news there. Down by 4% right now for Boeing. We take a look at this thing. Hey, I like that volume at the end of July on the earnings. I do. Now, that's an area of resistance. 240, man. You know, you're looking for a buy here, maybe the bottom of this bar from December. You're talking about 186 on Boeing. You're at 2011 right now. And that would kind of be just below where we were. Yeah, 187 is the low in March. and 186 is the low back here in December, but they're going to face some pressure. I mean, some of these headlines, folks, here, I'll pull them over in terms of they're they're not good headlines, right? Boeing CEO says wing production is current supply chain constraint, stabilizing the 737 output at 47 cents a month, taking longer than expected. So, that's the 737, right? And then you go still waiting on engine seal fix for the 777. And then it goes engine delay still hampering the 787 production rate as they want to raise it from 8 to 10. Can't do that yet. And he downplays the expectations of a China jet order at the coming Trump G summit in which you're going to have the Nvidia CEO Mr. Wang sitting there with them as well. Nvidia up by 8/10% right now and a VIX at 1766. One more segment folks, we come right back. [music] Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. 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Go to tfn.com, then hit watch tiger TV. That's tfn.com then hit watch tiger TV. [music] Welcome back folks. GDX. Yeah, a little bit of a bid coming into the closing bell as you bounce from 9119. We're at 9257. You're down by 1.6% for the equities right now. You jump over the metals, you got the gold contract down just half a percent. You're only down 20 bucks from where you were yesterday. Taking a look at this run. Yeah, that run started about 10:00 last night. You pushed to a high of 4,400 right on that news and then you gave it up to the tune of 125 bucks. But yeah, you're bouncing a bit. It's going to be interesting as to we navigate next Fed meeting, folks. October 28th. Okay. And for right now, the writing's on the wall. Okay. I see it hard for the GDX to begin accelerating again in the way it had following the last Fed meeting that they had. Okay. I think it was the 29th, maybe. I think it was July 29th. We'll have to pull it up because the narrative has changed a bit. We have a unanimous hike. Okay. There's a unanimous hike. There's no denying it. I mean, if you what would be going on and I love the post, Mike, in the den talking about Powell, man. Get in that tiger's den, folks. If you're not in that den, we got so many great posters. Tigers and tigers is in there. Um, and yeah, how happy is Powell right now that he didn't have to be the guy that told the president that inflation's out of control, sir, and I needed to hike. And I'm summizing, but yeah, quite a time as Worsh comes in and within a few months he's hiking for the first hike in three years. Welcome to the frying pan, Mr. Warish. But hey, they got a problem, folks. They got core inflation. And yeah, we got a problem. And that's core. Remember that's core. That's not even talking about everything going on with crude as you got crude right now sitting near 102 bucks and you got a dollar right at 100. This one's going to be an important one, folks. The dollar. Look how important that 100 area has been for some time. We're bumping up against it again 100.26 as the Nasdaq down just 13 points making a run for positive territory to end the session. Folks, thanks for tuning in, spending your time with me. Time, the one thing we'll never get back. Spend it wisely, folks. Have a great night. We'll see you tomorrow morning. Have a great one, folks. building.