September 15th Trade What You See with Larry Pesavento on TFNN - 2026
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
In this episode of TFNN, Larry Pesavento delves into technical analysis across a diverse range of assets, emphasizing the identification of ABCD chart patterns and specific Fibonacci retracement levels to guide trading decisions. He highlights a successful wheat trade that has already generated $400 in profit after moving the stop-loss to break-even, attributing this success to higher lows and structural symmetry. Conversely, he points out bearish momentum in crude oil, where multiple ABCD patterns converge near the $107.35 mark, aligning closely with a 78.6% Fibonacci level at $107.74. The analysis extends to global markets, noting downtrends in Japanese and Korean indices alongside mixed performance in Europe, while short positions in the British Pound and Euro are yielding profits as these currencies decline. Gold is also viewed negatively with potential for further drops, and corn presents a significant Gartley sell signal based on a four-year-old 38.2% retracement, whereas soybeans show weekly chart indicators suggesting a high probability of an upcoming downturn.
The discussion shifts to equities and broader market indices, where Larry examines the technical setups of major technology companies like Intel and Meta. Intel displays an ABCD pattern near the 38.2% level but lacks the necessary bullish confirmation to justify a long position, while Meta demonstrates clear patterns that historically preceded significant upward gaps. On a macro level, he analyzes a price-weighted Dow Jones component dropping from 961 to the 920–910 range, identifying support near the 61.8 Fibonacci level and warning that closing below the day's low of 51,085 would be unfavorable given rising interest rates. Bonds are also discussed as being in a downtrend with new lows, contrasting sharply with past predictions of negative interest rates, reinforcing the theme of adapting to current market realities rather than relying on historical precedents.
Throughout the analysis, Larry underscores the importance of seeking asymmetric bets where potential rewards significantly outweigh limited risks, drawing inspiration from Andrew Lo's *The Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street* to explain how symmetry and dollar-based patterns can exist even when gaps appear in charts. He uses the metaphor of historical racehorse losses to illustrate the unpredictable nature of markets, cautioning traders against overconfidence despite apparent technical setups. The segment concludes with a focus on pattern recognition as a primary tool for navigating volatility, suggesting that fundamental news often plays a secondary role compared to structural chart formations when identifying high-probability opportunities.
Finally, the video wraps up with promotional highlights for various educational resources available through TFN, including Tommy O'Brien's Rocket Equities and Options Report, Larry Pesavento's own Fibonacci 247 newsletter, Steve Rhodess's Mastering Probability course, and the affordable Tigers End Discord community. These offerings are presented as tools to help traders deepen their understanding of probability, technical structures, and market dynamics. Larry signs off by expressing gratitude to his audience, reiterating the core message that successful trading requires patience, disciplined risk management, and a keen eye for the asymmetric opportunities that emerge from complex market interactions.
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Trade what you see
with Larry Pavvento.
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Call now toll-free at 1877-927-6648
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Now, Larry Pimento.
Okay, looking good, Billy Ray. Feeling
good, Lewis. Let's take a look at crude
oil. Going back to September the 4th,
we've had a 25% increase in crude oil.
Since that time, we were trading down
there at roughly uh $89 a barrel. We're
now trading at 106 and rising. You can
see the 382 retracement into the eighth.
Okay? You see another three retracements
into the 10th. You see another one in
here to the 11th. And now we're forming
this pattern right up in here. Look at
the ABCD, folks. If you like ABCDs, look
from there. They came down. you dropped
uh $6 a barrel into that. Now we're
making this pattern right here. Let's do
this together. Have some fun. Do it a
little different. Let's see if we can
pick a top in this thing. Okay, here's
where we are now. This is just a this is
this lasts from the 10th uh to the 15th.
So, this is a 5-day pattern that we're
looking at right here. You're going to
see ABCDs all through here. So, we're
going to move it around so we can blow
it up and take a look at it right here.
So, there's what we want to find out.
First thing we want to do is we're going
to resort to our solid pattern that we
have is AB equals CD. And that means we
got one of them coming in right about
there. 107 and change. Okay. But we got
a big one right back here that we have
to realize. There's a one right there.
There's your low. And there's your high.
And there's your high right there.
Uh-oh. We got something coming here.
This one's 10744.
And then we've got we put this one in
correctly. Now we got another one that
came down here. So we have to mark that
one off. There's your low right here.
There's your AB. There's your CD. And oh
my goodness. Open the package. That's uh
we're sitting there 107 and 34. That's
the winning number. Now, will this work?
Heck, I don't know. All I know is that
when it gets there, you got one, two,
three ABCD patterns lining up. Let's put
the order in here. Just those of you
that are non-believers,
107.35.35.
Okay, there it is right there. 107.35.
Now, let's look at it again. All right,
you have one like [laughter]
I'm trying to think of the old laughin
joke, but I forgotten it. Anyway,
there's your first ABCD pattern. Oh,
that's the second one right there.
That's a bigger one here. There's your
first ABCD pattern is right. Let's
hopefully I get it right. Yeah, it's
right there. Okay, that comes in. That
number is 10724.
The second one comes in here at 10722.
And the last one comes in at 107. Hold
on right there. That's at 10737. So,
we're a dollar a barrel away uh from the
high. But that's there's three of them
coming together at that time. So,
whether that means very much or not, you
know, I don't know. But that's a whole
bunch of ABCD patterns. Let's switch
over and go into reality and we'll look
at the daily chart cuz this thing is,
you know, elf. Oh my goodness, look what
we got here. Right near 107. We got a
78% level. Mathematics precedes
geometry. So within about 70 cents of
the exact 786 on this, folks, so let's
pay attention. Now you see some of these
ABCDs in Kudall have been, you know,
pretty much spot on. Look at that.
That's a pretty much spot on there on
the upside. Here's one spot on on the
downside. Okay. And we had some on the
way down, of course. And here's where we
started the bullish part of it. And now
we're really close to that level. We're
not very far away. I think we just made
new highs just a second ago. Yeah, we're
still making new highs. 10735 is a
number we're looking at. The number for
the 786 is 10774.
But look at that. If you're looking at
that, you can see here that you got, you
know, three things that are telling you
got something in your in your favor that
you know that you're looking at. Okay,
that's all I'm looking at. All right. We
had one yesterday that everybody said,
"Oh, we're going to get killed on this
one." And that was the wheat. Let's get
our wheat up here. We want to get the
daily up because that's what we were
watching last night early in the
morning. And we said we're going to buy
the wheat at uh 07, excuse me, at 19
with a stop at 7:07. There was a 19.
It's now uh in the in the in the favor
by $400. So what you want to do is you
want to put your stop at break even at
719 so you don't risk anything at all.
The reason why I was doing the trade you
can see we have higher bottoms. This
makes this a 135 pattern. Very very
beautiful symmetry. If you count the
number of days down in this number of
days down in this you can see that the
corrections were almost exactly equal
right out of Andrew Low's book. Look for
repetition. There it is right there. AB
equals CD. A real mysterious peri uh
pattern that you don't hear much about.
Anyway, here's where we are now. We're
that's up 400 bucks now. It's still
rising. So, that's what you're looking
for. You're looking for pattern
recognition where you can put things
together. But, I'll tell you one thing,
folks. This the thing that we're looking
at over here. Let's get back to where we
were when we started the show. But
there's where we are. We're down 400 and
some points now. Uh if we break below
this, then that's telling you to hit
that exact number. And we've been here
since uh early this morning. We've been
trading for 2 hours and a half and it's
not taken out that low as of yet. I
don't know if I can do a 1 hour on that.
Yeah, there's the 1 hour. Okay, you can
see it here. There's your number right
there. There's your 85 number. And you
can see we had a little tiny rally and
boy, I mean, that's really tiny rally.
So, that really doesn't mean much. the
close is what will be so very very close
today because that's where the that's
where the pedal meets the metal as they
say looking at some of these others
you're seeing we're starting to see uh
Bitcoin now th this is very important
folks from my perspective because see
the 382 on the whole move that's the
whole move from way back at $122
am I saying that right $122,000
we went down to 57 uh 50 575 there was
your 382 retracement misses it by a
couple thousand points, but when you're
looking at a number that's 83,000,
couple thousand is not very far away.
So, looks like we're starting down now
uh in the crude oil. Uh here's your New
York Stock Exchange index. It's still
going lower. And then this is your
German DAX. Uh it's it was down, but now
it's it's basically up on the day. It's
still completed some patterns up in
here. Uh if we look at the Japanese
stock market, it's uh basically uh up
very slightly 2 cent uh 27% so far
today. Uh the nifty50, this thing's in
big trouble. You know, you can see here
that it's having some trouble over there
in India. And then of course there's
your semiconductor is very very mild
considering the news out there. It's all
over the place and in Japan it's got s
excuse me this is Korea. Japan actually
looks better than Korea. I'll just bring
that. You can see Japan is still got
some higher bottoms. Korea's got lower
bottoms and lower tops. You can see
that's what you've got. So, it's a lot
weaker than the other side of this. So,
those are the ones that we're watching
here today. When we come back uh from
our first break, we want to look at some
of the other trades. Well, we can do
that right now as we're talking here. We
also have some a British pound that
we've been short for a while. It's
working uh not great, but it's still
nicely. We sold it right up here at the
382. It's got a little more than a, you
know, a profit in it here about uh $600.
And if we look at the euro, get that up
here. You'll see here it's still moving
to the downside. I believe it was
earlier. And we'll get this up and
you'll see here. There we are in the
euro moving down quite nicely, too. So,
this is what we're watching here, boys
and girls. So, let's pay attention.
We'll be right back. [music]
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>> Okay folks, this is the uh you can see
here we've completing we're completing
an ABCD pattern here. Uh this level here
on the daily we were looking at it on
the 60 minute. So we have just a we
might [clears throat] even be there but
a little bit lower down here at 11510
might be the bottom that we're looking
at here uh for the euro. All right. So
that's a big thing too. So we need to
watch that very very closely. We're
there. where we've made the 50% level,
but the ABCD, as you know, uh, goes
lower. So, if you'll put your level
right there, you see you're going to get
it down just a little bit lower to the
61% retracement. That's [snorts] what I
would be assuming. We're going to get
that uh in the euro. Whether that'll
mean a big thing or not, no one knows
that, but that's not what we're doing
here. All right, we'll get this this out
of the way. We got the uh British pound
out of the way. We got the Oh, we're
Look at this. We got the uh wheats.
We're working up pretty good here. Let's
just see where we're looking at here.
There we go. There was our move. Oh,
look at this. Strong trending markets,
boys and girls. Do you like those? Watch
this. God, I love this stuff. Spoke to
Tom Boogard today. You want Well, there
you go. There's your beautiful Look at
that beautiful ABCD right there on the
opening and easy 400 bucks. So, that's a
nice one that we were looking at. Okay,
now let's look at over here at the stop
and beat. Here's where we are. I put the
AI in on this cuz sometimes it works
better than it does. But this is what
we're looking at. There's your low. We
had the rally right here from your high
right back here. Just just come back.
And this market's getting more bearish,
folks. And you'll see why in just a
second. There's your 382 retracement
almost to the exact tick. We're still
moving down. Now, we shorted this. You
know, remember I was long and then we
went out of the long and went back in
short at 7680 on the video that I sent
last night. I used a 20 point stop on
that. Didn't get hit. We bought the
wheat. That worked okay. So, the other
one we're watching here was the gold
market having all kinds of nice little
patterns on a smaller time. Still very
bearish. You can see there was your 382
right here. There's your You can see it
just Well, let's just draw it in because
it's been a while since I've been on the
air. Wasn't until what? Last Thursday, I
believe. There's your 382. There's your
move down. There's your another 382
coming in here on the gold. There it is
again. There it is again. Now, you're
still still going lower. A little contra
trend. Let's look at this on the AI just
for kicks and giggles to say we still
haven't even looked at Oh my golly, what
do we got here? Looks like we're getting
ready to head lower in the gold. Shut
the front door and raise a rent go. This
might be a good one. So, trade with uh
Well, that's pretty good. There's your
low. There's your low right here. And
the high should have been right there.
So, that might be it. I don't know.
You don't know. You just never know.
Let's get back and look at on a smaller
time frame. And there's a ABCD there and
just about the same ABCD right here. So,
there should be strong resistance at
that level. And from the last high we
made back here on uh Sunday night, it's
right at the 61.8% retracement. So, that
may or may not work. Okay, let's move on
here and talk about some of the other
things. We have some crude oil on uh
let's try that again, Larry. Soybean
oil. Here's where we are in soybean oil.
You can see here there was your ABCD
pattern right here. All right, we sold
it there, came down. It was still short.
Still held this level right now, but we
still sold it here at 7020. And now it's
uh it's got 50 cents in it. At one time
had a little bit more. Had $600. Now it
only has $300, but the wheat made up for
it because the wheat is uh moving pretty
good right now. Now, let's take a look
here at the NASDAQ because it had been
doing pretty good and now it's getting
hammered pretty good. Folks, we're in a
really bad bare market in some of this
stuff, folks. And you've got to look at
the big rally that you had,
you know, Monday and Monday night. And
then look what happened here Monday
night. Look at this rally that they had.
Things goes from 91. It rallies 500
points, $10,000 straight up. Let's look
at this on the hourly chart. And so we
can see it just a little better. Okay,
there it is right there. Perfect. ABCD.
Look at that right there. I sent this
out uh early in the morning uh this
morning. It was fact it already hit that
and we were down here and then we
rallied back uh early this morning. You
can see the early morning rally also.
The the market's really bearish, folks.
And let me here's where here's where I'm
going to try to tell you why it's
bearish. You can see it yourself. But
look at some of these things like the
Russell. The Russell can't rally
at all. Look at this. It just uh it just
keeps going lower and lower and lower
and lower and lower and that that that's
the problem. And the problem with that
is right over here. And we talked about
this many times and we're going to do it
again. We're going to come up here and
talk about the old bondies and we're
going to talk about the old notoies.
Here's the notes. First of all, there's
the notes.
Tell me if you see something bullish on
this chart, folks. I don't see it. Now
look, here's where we took our stance
right there.
All right. At 107 and we were out at 10.
See, we bought it there at 107. We were
out there at 116. I didn't go short. Had
I would have made up all of our loss.
But look, it just keeps going down and
down and down. Now, if you look at this
on the long-term chart, look at the
weekly, you can see we're still going
down. If you look at on the monthly,
look at that. We breaking down.
Something's wrong, folks. This was this
was negative interest rates six years
ago. right now. Look, they're telling us
this is a good bottom. We're taking out
this bottom. Show me something that's
bullish about this and yeah, I'll take a
look at it. But I don't see it. I really
don't. Now, let's take a look at the the
Treasury bonds.
Bonds had something nice this morning.
Really? They really did. Hold on. I'll
show it to you this morning on the
hourly chart. I believe it was uh I
don't I think it was third. Yeah, let's
just put it up here. I think we'll see
it here. No, this wasn't. No, that's the
old bond. That's June. Stop it, Larry.
That thing's off the board. Let's get
the chart up that really counts. And
that's the one on top of it right there.
And we'll see where we are. Ah,
[clears throat] there it is. See, I did
have something this morning. Didn't
worry. Now, look, it's still going down.
We made new lows today. But that new low
today, let's just let's just look at Get
out of the way there, cowboy. Okay,
[clears throat] here's the bonds. This
what Mark used to love to trade and uh
is very good at it, by the way. Okay.
Now, on early this morning on the bonds,
we had AB
equals CD right on the Monday right
there. There it is. That rallied from
106. It rallied $600. It stopped right
here. All right. Now, when you're
trading at you're looking at lower tops
and lower bottoms, that's known as a
downtrend. So, you want to see what the
retracement was from the high that you
made right back here. Remember this is
when Bread was made his comment. And
look at the high the last
few hours here. Doesn't go any higher
than the 382. There's nothing bullish
about this at all, folks. And looking at
this on the really big long term, okay,
this is the one. You've got to remember
this one, folks. You're going to tell
your grandkids about this. Back here,
2006,
the bond kings were telling us, "Oh,
we're going to have negative interest
rates."
Negative interest rates means we're
going to take your money and we're going
to charge you for holding your money.
We're not going to hold this money for
yourself. We're going to charge you a
fee for holding it because interest
rates are negative. You no longer get
interest. Oh, and by the way, we're not
going to be able to, you know, guarantee
that you're going to get your money back
either. Oh, very interesting. What's
interesting to me and look, look where
we are now. We're breaking down below
all these lows, folks. Look at that.
We're breaking down below all those
lows. This is not a there was your you
know well anyway I'm just bearish. I
don't know where it's going to happen to
them but how how is stocks how are
[music] stocks going to go up if we got
notes and bonds going higher or lower
with means higher interest rate. I don't
understand it. Hey, let's take a break.
We'll be right back. Lots to cover. Lots
to cover. [music]
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[music]
Okay, this hourly chart of the Dow
Jones, folks, you can see the high we
made here uh on yesterday was uh just a
point off of the exact 382. And now you
can see we're starting to come back down
again. This uh number is equivalent to
that 51,865
that we're watching uh in the Dow Jones.
If the Dow Jones gets down more than
600, I don't know how much is down right
now. That'll be the sign that we're
probably breaking through to the
downside on this is my opinion, of
course. And uh [snorts] okay, move that
out of the way. We're still looking for
107. I got the limit minder set in here.
So if we get to that 107 level, we'll
know where we are. So just keep an eye
on it. See if it works. That's all I'm
doing. Trying to give you a little idea
of that. To me, that's an asymmetrical
bet right there cuz you got one, two,
three major things up here. You got to
risk it,000 bucks, but boy, it's got a
lot of money in if it's going to be
right. Okay. All right. Let's move on
here to the S&P. We were watching that
jump around quite a bit. There's where
we were. Now, this says it has a
possibility of going lower. Now, we've
got to start making new lows here pretty
quickly cuz we already made the 382. So,
keep your mind off of that. And then
we'll also looked at the Russell. We've
already done that on the downside also.
So, let's move over and talk a little
bit about the wheat. Now, what I'm doing
now, I'm looking at wheat. So, what I'm
going to do is I'm going to This is the
December contract. I'm going to switch
over to the one that is uh continuation
because this is why I think it's
important. We're going to look at this
on the daily chart. In fact, we've done
this before. Now, you can see we made
some major highs up here and all this
stuff. Okay, see that major highs. Now,
if we're looking at this, you know, on
the long-term weekly, you can see that
we made the 382, folks, when remember we
was remember there was going to be no
more cookies and pasta available ever
here. They couldn't even sell cookies
and pasta. Nobody wanted it. All right.
Now, we're at the 382 of the high from
four years ago. You want to be getting
ready to short this stuff. and I'm long
here from $ 719,
but that's it. I'm trading a shorter
term pattern. So, if you bought that at
$119, you made $500 American dollars.
Your risk was $500 when you put it on.
So, that's a make an asymmetric bet.
You've made $500 and that's where you
want to be taking it off. All I'm going
to do now is put the AI up here and tell
me whether that's what I should be
doing. Well, you can see this is an
inverted pattern because you can see
it's making higher than lower. So, I've
got to change that. Move that over like
this. Just the vibration has turned to a
mirror image. That's all it means. And
as you can see here, it's still there
was your low. Now you can see we're
still going high. So up in this area,
but if you bought that and if you bought
that 382, then this is your profit
objective. Take your $500 and go home.
Now I can't tell this to people right
now cuz I have to do a video and send it
out. But if you're listening to the
show, that gives you something to work
on. But it that's exactly what you're
looking for is something that you know
works in your favor. And believe me
folks, you don't know which ones are
going to work and which ones don't.
That's the real key. And that's why this
stuff works cuz you don't know which
ones are going to work and which ones
don't. All right, let's move on here and
talk about a couple of stocks that
people have asked me about. One, of
course, you'll never guess what it is.
It's Mr. Abel who's down by the well.
Let's see how we're doing lately. Okay.
Oh, it's doing okay. Now, we went up and
we made the uh 78% retracement. As you
can see here, we made the ABCD. Right
there was your 78%. Now, you backed off
just a little bit here today. Not very
much, but that should have been your
high right up in that area right here.
Okay. Now, I've also been asked to take
a look at Nvidia. There's several stocks
that people are asking about today. So,
we want to get those uh out of the way
if we can. Nvidia starts with an end,
most expensive stock in the world. also
a Dow stock and it starts with an end.
And there it is right there. Nvidia. I
don't know if it got above 126 or not.
With all the news, it should have. No.
Yeah. Yeah, we did. We did. We make a
new high. Did we make a No, we just made
a double top. We made that nice little
ABCD pattern. Oh, there's a nice little
ABCD there. Clean that out. See, if you
like ABCDs, they're around, you know,
just uh try to find them. Okay, there's
your ABCD right here. I mean, why would
anybody sell this so close to uh new
all-time highs yet? It had a lot of
money in it. It goes from uh
oh, see, it doesn't make the ABCD. You
would not have gotten filled on that one
because it's too far away. 34. Got the
38. You wouldn't have got that. And it
has the move big move down like that.
Let's see. We have this big move down.
And I don't see a 382 anywhere in sight.
So, let's just look and see if we find
one here after the Well, this is not a
good uh
Well, let me just move this over. No,
there's not even going to be a 382 here.
Uh, anyway, I don't believe, but we'll
double check it here from this high down
to there. No, it doesn't give you 382.
Just keeps keeps falling off. So, I
don't see anything to do with this. U
you know, this thing's made so much
money for people. You know, look at
this. We're still at this level right
here. So, you know, I don't know. This
was the buy of the century right here at
the 382. If you like 382s, there it was
right there. And then we have gone up
and made new highs. But the stock market
is not acting uh not acting very good,
boys and girls. It really isn't. So,
let's uh keep an eye on that as we go
through and look at some of these other
things. But, I would be getting out of
the wheat now uh for two reasons. One,
it's major profit objective and the
longer term could be to the downside.
Now, let's take a look at a couple other
things that I think are important. I
covered these in the newsletter over the
weekend, but I want to cover them again.
This is the corn. I'm going to bring the
corn up. You can see corn's still as
high as an elephant's high. But look
[snorts] where we are in corn. We're
making an ABCD. And look at this on the
weekly chart. Same like we'd had in the
wheat. Look what corn's doing. Corn's
making a 382 from the high where? Four
years ago. Right up there. ABCD. It's a
major Gartly sell signal. You have ABC
CD in a downtrend. Okay? And you haven't
had an ABCD in a downtrend until just
now. None of these gave you that. This
one does. And that started in J
February. And here's where we are right
now. So, you want to get ready to short
the corn. All right. Now, let's take a
look at the next one. We're going to
look at soybeans. There's Oh, I've got
to do one other two. I missed something
really big today. 222 in cattle. Okay.
Soybeans starts with an S. Correct. All
right. That would be right there. This
[snorts] is the November beads and
they're having a little rally today.
Let's look and see where they are. All
right, that's the daily chart. Now, what
we're going to do now is go down to the
60 minute and we're coming back. All
right, we're uh let's see today's
action. We went through the 382 like it
didn't even exist here. So, if you sold
the 382, your stop has got to be above
that level right there. We don't have an
ABC, just a 382 uh coming in. But let's
look at this on the long-term weekly.
Look where we are. Almost exactly 50% of
the high from way back here. All right.
And you can see there's some other
patterns lining up probably that uh I
missed in here somewhere. There's one
right here, a big one. And that takes
you up to that level. There's probably
another one right here that I might have
missed too. And that could take you up
even higher. So my assu assumption is
because we're up here on the weekly here
and we've been here for one two weeks
now. This is a pretty good chance here
that we got it ready for the market to
go down. That's why we're short the
soybean oil, folks, is because of that.
And it's working okay, but nothing
nothing dramatic. But 300 bucks is 300
bucks. We'll take a break.
>> [music]
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>> [music]
>> All right, folks. We're going to take a
look at the Japanese yen. Now, you can
see we're in the midst of a rally here.
1 2 3 4 5. Let's double check that.
6 1 2 3 4 5 6 day rally. As you can see,
now what we're going to do now is we're
going to go down to the hourly chart.
So, we're going to be looking for the
old guess what? 382. There's your first
382. There's your second 382. There's
next 382. Next 382. Now look, we're
starting to go higher, aren't we? So,
the first thing we got to do is figure
out, you can see we're way above the 382
of that one. You can see we have an ABCD
pattern here, just like we were doing
crude oil. All right, there's your
pullback. All right, now let's just see
where it came down to after the market
made its bottom. It pulled back to the
50% level just exactly. So, we know
that's correct. So, all we have to do is
put the next pattern in right here.
There's your ABC CD leg right here.
That's going to take us up to this level
here, which is 15570. That's about 50
pips from where we are right now. All
right. So, we're just going to move this
over just a little bit. 15570 is what
we're looking for. Now, if the trading
gods are with us, that'll be 382 of that
high way back here. Now remember the
high was 164. All we've done since the
8th of uh September, eight days, eight
trading days. All we've been able to
rally is three points. Okay, we've
dropped down eight and all we've been
able to rally back is three. Whoa. Eight
and three. Those numbers mean something.
Let's see if it's a 382. You go from
your high right back here and put that
in right back there and shut the front
door and raise the rent. It's payday
coming in right there. You can see the
Dline. Look at that Dline is setting
right on the subline. Let's get this out
of the way cuz it doesn't count anymore.
We're looking at a larger firm. This one
doesn't count anymore. Get it out of the
way. And there's where we go. This is a
asymmetric bet, boys and girls. You
can't ask for any better than this. I
mean, you really can't. Well, you can,
but you won't get it. Anyway, look,
there's an ABCD at the 382 and no doubt
that there's a trend line because the
high was 164.
We want to remind ourselves of that.
Okay, there's where the cell was. What
did it do? It made 8,000. We end up only
making four. We made another thousand in
here before the big crack. But now we
got the promised land is coming to us.
15560
155. Well, it's actually the number is
155 uh70. So, we're going to put in
15560 is where we're going to sell it.
Hold on just a second here. We'll draw
that in and put it in at 155
60. And we're going to have to put a
stop in. Put it here at 1 11 uh 6 02.
So, we have to risk about uh 400 bucks
02. Boy, if it's right, it's going to be
a good one. So that's what we're paying
attention to here with this. We're going
to keep this looking at it for the rest
of this week or however long it takes to
get there. But there's your if actually
it's three drives. You can see there's
drive one, there's drive two, there's
drive three. You could also draw that in
if you wanted to to to see it. And I
think we should since we're making a a
recommendation in here. And there it is
right there. So there's where we're
looking to to get short up in here. If
the trading gods are with us, we'll
still get there. Now, it's still up uh
pretty good today. So, we're going to
find out if it's going to make it or
not. But that's that's the kind of thing
that you're uh that you're looking at.
Okay. All right. Let's move on here.
What are we watching? Some of this other
stuff. Anything else? Crude oil hasn't
got up there. High has been 67. We're
trading 10633. This will be one to look
at tomorrow, folks, because we would be
rough into that ballpark of where we
want to be as far as uh
well, you know, that's the number right
up there. So, we'll keep that uh keep
that working. And that's uh basically
it. Okay, let's get back to a couple of
stocks that we've been asking about. All
right, let's go to Intel. Remember, we
were a little little uh negative to
Intel a little while ago. Let's starts
with an I.N.T.C. is Intel. Get this up.
Uh it's not done anything. By golly,
it's just In fact, it's up today. Well,
up, but slightly. It's uh was up a
little bit more. We just went to the 382
again here folks these last few days and
a little pullback here really means very
much now you can see let's go to
60-minute I see something that you know
you could trade this on there's your
ABCD all right there's your 382 I
believe that's 382 off the high
certainly looks like it. So let's take a
quick look at that. There's your high
right here 382 comes in uh it's halfway
between the two but that doesn't look uh
that bullish to me. And if you look at
this on an ABCD format, you can see here
from the low you made back here the 14th
and then today the 15th and there's your
number just about exactly spot on there
at par. Oh, see the high was par uh a
bore par 048 and the number measured to
37. So that would have been a nice ABCD
if you're trading it on a stock basis.
Of course, it's a lot slower than in the
futures and in the forex, but it still
does the same type of thing. Now, we
want to take a look at something we
haven't seen in a long time, which is
Meta. It's still back in the news here.
Just had some good news recently. And
then you can see, move this over here
today.
Here's where we are right here. Folks, I
when people ask me a question about the
the AI and stuff, I [laughter] I mean, I
know artificial intelligence is really
great thing, just like cryptocurrencies
and blockchains and all that other
stuff, but I look at patterns. I I
really I don't I've never found
anything, but I'm just an old country
boy. If I see something that works, I'm
going to stick with it. And, you know,
it doesn't work all the time, but
nothing else does either. So, that's all
I'm trying to, you know, look at is
this. Now, this one's pretty hard for
ABCDs. You see a nice one right here.
You see a couple of them in here.
There's a nice ABCD here in meta right
here. Let's just clean this out so we
can look at it without anybody being
confused. There's your first big ABCD is
right here. Let's get this up here.
There's your A leg right here. There's
your B leg. Remember the CD goes up a
little higher because of this of this
big gap, right? So, you got to put that
in. And if you put that in, the CD leg's
going to be 1.27 27 of AB.
Okay. And you look at that and bada
bing, bada boom, there it is. Then you
have the ABCD. Yep. Now, this one really
takes off. Look at this. Got an ABCD
right here. Hold on. There's AB equals
CD right up in here.
And look, you're waiting to sell it
here. You miss it. Then, of course, it
has the big gap up. And away it went. It
went way above the 127 of the number.
We'll put that in. And you can see and
this is when they don't work. You got to
stand out, you know, got to get out of
dodge. And uh see, it went even higher
than that. So, lots of gaps in here,
too. So, I I don't know where it's going
to go. These are very similar uh in
size, though. You can see that swing
right here is almost ident Well, it is
identical pretty much. Look, that swing
right here is almost identical. Well,
within a dollar or so. That's that tells
you that symmetry is still alive and
well with that. But uh move that over
just a little bit. You'll see that that
is exactly what Andrew Lo talks about in
his book, The Non-Random Walk Down Wall
Street. So, and here's where we are
right now. So, that's Meta and we've
covered Apple, we've covered Intel, we
need to cover Goldman Sachs. We've had
an in one of our friends is Goldman
Sachs here. Where's [snorts] GS at?
Right here. Hold on one second. Uh
[groaning]
it's back in under the G's.
A B CDE EFG. We'll be right back soon as
I get the alphabet straight. Goldman
Sachs coming up.
[music]
>> [music]
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[music]
Okay, folks. This is one of the reasons
why the Dow Jones is getting hammered is
because this is the largest stock in the
Dow and it's price weighted. You can see
961. Wow. It's down $200 a share, folks.
1161
961. That's 200 handles. 200 bucks.
That's a lot. And let's see where next
support would be. Let's just measure
here for kicks and giggles. There's your
ABCD right there. So, we're going to go
down about another $50. And if we drew
that over, uhoh, you know what that's
going to be, folks? That's going to be
the 618. Oh, take a look at her. How
close it is. Yeah, there it is. That
would be a guardly. There's your three
drive to a top pattern. There's your
guardly right here. Right around 920 to
910 down about 40 bucks from where we
are right now. So, looks like we got
some more to go to the downside. Now,
let me quickly uh well, we only got a
couple seconds left. Hopefully, I can
get this uh my trend view went out of
business here for a second while we were
on the break, and I wanted to see how
well we're doing. Uh yeah, we're still
in business here. Oh, this chart's all
screwed up now. Just a second. I have to
fix this. We still have not made a new
low on the day. As you can see, we're
trading around 52,000. The low was
51,085.
Closing below that number, folks, is not
good. And when you add all the stuff
together with the interest rates going
higher and uh you know it doesn't look
very good. Crude oil at 107 hey that
might be the top in crude oil but you
know that's a long way away too. Well
not very far away at all but it might go
through there like Milton better. Just
because there's three patterns up there
doesn't mean it's going to work. It just
means it's an asymmetric bet. Sometimes
they win, sometimes they lose. You know
even Secretariat lost. Even man of war
lost. Uh and you know no man of war man
of war only lost one time and that was
because they cheated him. They wouldn't
let him out of the gate. He was beaten
by a horse that was 99 to1 in Saratoga
racetrack back in the hey we'll see you
on the flip side tomorrow. I live every
day in an attitude of gratitude. And may
God bless.
[music]
>> [music]