September 14th The Tiger Technicians Hour on TFNN - 2026
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
On September 14th, host Basel Chapman analyzed a mixed market environment where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 100 points to settle at 52,473, while the S&P 500 declined roughly 33 points in cash. Despite this broader weakness, major technology and consumer staples stocks like Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Procter & Gamble managed to gain ground, whereas Amazon experienced a sharp decline. Chapman identified a specific technical pattern resembling an "H" formation as the market broke down from a rectangle consolidation, tested the halfway marker of that structure, and subsequently rallied back to test the base before potentially breaking lower again. While daily charts displayed clear signs of weakness, monthly and weekly charts suggested that the market would likely continue its sideways, choppy action within higher ranges for several months.
The analysis delved into specific sector performances and individual stock setups, highlighting significant movements in semiconductors, energy, and technology. The semiconductor sector (SMH) dropped nearly 23% to trade at 545.83, with Chapman predicting a breakdown below the 503 level referencing the July 31st low, noting that support was held only by data from September 14th. Nvidia formed a double top around 234.76 and was pulling back toward its 200-period moving average at 198.76, signaling potential acceleration lower for the sector. In contrast, Archer Daniels Midland showed strong bullish momentum with a cup formation targeting previous highs near 98, while Frontier Limited Shipping hit a new all-time high above 50. Defensive stocks like Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson were noted for their stability, and Bitcoin was observed holding near its 200-period moving average but requiring a move between 78,700 and 84,000 to demonstrate significant statistical strength.
Crude oil prices rallied to a recovery high near 104.95 but remained below all-time highs, with Chapman expressing skepticism about a sudden resolution to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Houthis, suggesting that oil would likely continue rising into the hundreds if it sustained above 110. Attention also shifted to rare earth elements and bonds, where MP Materials pulled back after looking strong three weeks prior, similar to PD, while the GDX ETF declined by 3.51% due to weekly consolidation. The speaker warned that gold needed a rally to avoid entering a corrective phase and highlighted that Treasury yields had reached leg C daily and leg E weekly, approaching the 4% level, which was unfavorable for ultra-short limit 20-year bond ETFs like TBT. Consequently, Chapman advised caution, recommending that investors raise cash positions, avoid over-leverage on underperforming assets, and prioritize capital preservation with the sentiment that being out of the market wishing to be back is preferable to being in wishing to get out.
Chapman concluded that the current market environment was predominantly negative, favoring short positions until clear confirmation of a trend change appeared. He emphasized monitoring round numbers in stock prices as significant targets for highs and lows, citing examples like Cadence Design Systems and Synaptics. The segment included standard promotions for TFN newsletters, educational services, and leveraged ETFs, while noting that it was only an hour and a half into the first trading day of the week with further analysis expected by market close. Overall, the technical outlook remained cautious, urging traders to respect support levels and wait for definitive signals before committing to long positions in a volatile landscape.
Read the full video transcript
The following is a presentation of TFN
the Tiger [music]
Technician Hour with your host Azel
Chapman. Call now toll-free at
1877-927-6648. [music]
Now, [music] Basel Cap.
>> Good morning, everyone. Basel Cap here
on this Monday, Monday the 14th of
September. We're looking at the Dow uh
down 100 at 52,473
there. Just enough Dow stocks kind of
make it a mixed market. Um it hasn't
broken down, but it did definitely do
that pattern that we talk about. I
showed my subscribers over the past
weeks that we're anticipating that there
should be an H pattern and if it
rallies, there should be an a lowerase H
that goes to a lowerase M and then a
breakdown. What very often happens in
this particular pattern, [clears throat]
the price goes back to test. Oh, let me
show you right here. Gosh, I I love to
do this in real time. Look at this here.
Well, let me get it back. I'll show you.
Look at this. There it is. Look. market
gaps down went into a u a spike went
into a rectangle high level
consolidation it was 9:00
on Friday you pop up and you just hold
steady steady steady and you break down
from the long narrow rectangle formation
and what do you do 6:00 last night push
to the downside and look this bar the
gap down bar that became your rectangle
so what happens very often you go out of
[clears throat] the rectangle, in this
case to the upside because it's on the
downside that the rectangle's unfolding
and you come down, you take out the
halfway marker of the rectangle
formation that says be careful. You
should be testing the the base and you
did. And then you went under it. And
what does it say? It says whoops, be
careful because you're going to go back.
And if you cross the halfway marker
point, you can go even higher. So there
it is. So this is the pattern where it
breaks down, it comes back up. So then
we go back to this. We're looking at the
Dow. It comes sideways action and now
it's come down and then it tried to get
back into the rectangle. So, this is
going to be very important. Couple of
things are going on. Um,
oh, I have to do it again. That's why I
just did the update. Let me just do it.
So, the Dow is now down uh only $60. $50
$54. That means that the mix and I'm
just having a look here. So, Google is
up. Uh, Apple is up, PG Proctor and
Gamble's up, Microsoft's up. Uh,
[clears throat]
oh, a lot actually up. Amazon's down
quite sharply.
American Express, JP Morgan, I got to
watch that. Okay. So, what we're looking
at here, there's a mixed market going on
because the Dow is coming back quite
nicely. I don't think it's going to come
back and hold. I think it's going to
over the period of the next couple of
days, it's going to be pulling back
again. But look at this. the S&P
which is down over 50 something points
now down 33. Yeah, that was in the
futures. Now down 33 in the cash at
7623.
Uh didn't take out Thursday's low. So
we're watching that very closely. Look
at the weekly chart still holding very
nicely. Monthly chart leg D with good
technicals even with this pullback. the
onbalance volumes pull back of the
stochcastic set 93% but the pattern does
suggest this lot look I'm pointing to
this monthly chart daily weekly monthly
and that monthly chart says you can hold
in the '9s for quite a while you did
that through 2024 all the way through
December of 2025 then you started to
pull back well we've held this again
since July of last year that was last
year then July of this year uh we went
all the way stand holding from July of
2025 through 2026 and this at some point
going into the next gosh I I just have
to think that going that there's going
to be so much viciousness going into it
would be
October
into about the just really intensify
well how it how it happens to affect the
market we just don't know my suspicion
is it it isn't going to be good for the
market but who knows. Okay, so let's
just go through this and say that the
monthly chart there's every reason to
think that 7816.70
the high of the 13th of August is not
going to be touched
as we go into each week just consistent
choppy choppy choppy and therefore we
could be making a PD in a monthly chart
pd in the sh wave methodology says uhoh
watch out yellow light doesn't mean to
say you're going to turn down but this
is where you have to be ready for some
kind of a turndown. But look at this.
The Dow is only in B. Unbelievable.
Look, leg B, we have to call it leg B
until the end of the month. Uh the QQQ
is in legs legs is peak C. So it still
has to go to a new leg D because in a
buy mode. The IWM and the QQQs are down
seven at 707. Look, the daily chart is
looking it's looking kind of weak.
Monthly chart says a weekly chart says
hey nothing to see here. This is just
chop chop chop sideways at the higher
range. And the monthly chart says ah
three months of just sideways action.
Nothing to see here at the moment. Now
look at this. The IWM monthly chart leg
see probably a PC without going over
305.18.
Uh the weekly chart peak starting to
have quite a few bars underneath the 14
period moving average. that says be
careful because there could be a sell
signal. We haven't even got a sell
signal in any of the weekly charts yet.
And look at the uh daily chart sell mode
and it went exactly to the arching over
to test the left side low of uh the 31st
was the 31st of July at 28783.
We're at 288.78 right now having bounced
off the low of 28736
uh which was above the low of Thursday
which is at 28718.
Okay, let's go on to the SMHS.
SMH is coming back off a very sharp
pullback into the CH wave inside track
propellant zone. Uh trading right now at
545.83
down 22 almost 23 caps down 9 moving
average to actually flip back from a
green. It went pink then green and now
it's back to pink. The day is young.
We'll see what happens. I think it'll
stay pink, but we're watching this very
closely because here is the pattern
we've been talking about. We saw it in
the Dell, the lowerase H
doesn't break the left side low. So, it
goes to an Mshaped pattern. I suspect
that we will be breaking under 500.
503.0
63 was the low of the week of the 31st
of July. This pattern suggests based on
the technicals of the U MACD retro
strength stochastic at 34% and the
onbalance volume that it's only the 914
that's holding it up and when the 914
goes pink we will test that level that
503 level a close under 499
any day let alone any week any day
between now and the next week or two
says oh you've got to be real careful
that's the vanic semiconductor. So I
just wanted to do this. Look here is
here the components. So I wanted to show
you something fascinating. I've done
this uh for quite a while now. Sent a
paper to the stocks and commodities
magazine. Just an outline to say hey how
about this? I've never seen you have a
round number uh discussion in the 20 30
years or whatever I've been getting the
magazine. Um and she was very
interested. She said but we are actually
doing one this next month. That was
September. it came out and really what
it is, it's the S&P futures and what
happens at the various round numbers on
the as if it's a Fibonacci extension or
or a contraction and it's not the round
numbers that you see, it's the round
numbers that you aim for. So that's just
so completely different. Oh man, we
out of my round numbers in the
semiconductor index, I'll go through
just a few of them in when I get back.
out of the public that have
a number. I think it's about 30
something like 30. I've already got 18
that either the day of the day after
they had round numbers at the all-time
highs. I'll be back.
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[music]
Unbelievable. I just went through this
and I forgot all about cadence design
systems. So I thought okay let's have a
look. [music] The cadence design systems
on the first of June has a round number
393 open right there. Right there um 393
open the all-time high was the very next
date on the 2nd of June 416.69.
no round number at all that day, but the
very next day it opens with a 410.00
round number and that's it. It's trading
right now 281. And look at this. I
didn't even see that. Gosh. Um, if I was
to do uh well, I I won't do it. I was
going to do left side right side price
time to that candle right there. It will
take us somewhere over here. Doesn't
matter. But let me just see the next
one. Synapsis. I didn't even see that.
SNPS. SNPS.
[clears throat] All right, there it is.
That's just before June.
And the alltime high is 539.48.
The day before 510 open round number
open uh alltime high uh 53948. And the
next day now around numbers that was the
day before 500 same 510 open on the um
on the 28th. So unbelievable right? So
the day before it has a round number
open makes an alltime high no round
number and then the second day it has
second day after the alltime high. So uh
yeah so let me just put in my notes
here. SNPS
it's just incredible. S NPS
S NPS
I I won't all the details right and I'll
just put the name there so I don't
forget it. Um yeah we can just go
through Pterodine I mean just I don't
want to do them all. I've done them
before. Okay. Pterodine has an alltime
high of 487.61
on the 30th of June. Remember it's not
always in sequence. Tops are made uh
incre tops are made
not sequentially. Bottoms are made
almost always sequentially. All right.
487.61
alltime high on the 30th of June.
460 round number open. Goodbye. It's
down to 342 right now. It had hit the
300 level. 300 what? Uh 296. I would say
487 to 296.
You could say that there was definitely
a round number significant decline in
that particular end. All right, enough
with that. I've made my point many
times. Okay, let's just do this. What
did I What did I just do? Was it STM?
What am I looking at now? I'm looking at
terror. I won't look at SDM. We go on
because there's just so much to look at.
So, I believe that we're making a a a
series of highs. We were waiting for the
semiconductors to really take a dive and
today they're down 24 down 4 and a half%
at 543. This is what I've been waiting
for as confirmation that this is a
sector that is not just taking a couple
of weeks but it's going to be a couple
of months of digestive action. Okay. So
now let's go on. Let's get this out the
way. We're done with you for the day and
we're going to go a so busy talking.
Never got a chance to get that short in.
Oh no. Let me just have a look here.
Okay, there it is. Daily chart goes to
higher high A C goes to peak C1
C2. Okay, that's fine. Oh no, it doesn't
goes to a G. All right, very good. G.
And now we get back to the 200 period
moving average. Ah, be careful out
there. We've for subscribers, we've
raised a lot of cash. We we um we're
being very selective in anything that's
a buy and in fact the buys are probably
the short side. Um as I say, we've got
our short positions. I'm really upset
about two things. One is we had the UCO
and I've been talking about this all the
time. I've been saying everything I look
at is suggesting that crude oil is going
to go to higher highs. It's going to go
into the hundreds. How it holds, if it
goes over 110, that's going to be a
major thing. It hasn't got there, but
how it holds in the low 100s is going to
be very important. Look, today it popped
up, went to a new recovery high, not
alltime high, just a recovery high. Um,
went to 10495
and here it is. Uh, this is not this is
overnight, but we're talking about 10:30
in the morning and it's still holding up
$410. There is nothing that I'm looking
at on the fundamental level that says
um Iran should just say, "Okay, this is
it, folks. We we're done. We're going to
seed to everything that America wants.
We're just going to give in." They just
don't do that. 47 years they've never
done anything like that. So, it just
seems to me that we're looking at
something that is
a predominantly negative. I don't see a
plus side to this. is this you remember
we were just look we were there we were
down just the low of the the most recent
low was July the week of the 3rd of July
um crude oil was at 65.61 61 on the
continuous contract. It is now at 104
$40 more. That's
I mean we won't expect anything like
that. We've been there. We thought that
was it. No. Nope. The 9 period moving
average for back to green. And look
where we are. I've got a left side right
side price time match that says that by
next week we should be tagging the
10800. Oops. Don't get carried away
here. 107.65
high. This is a continuous contract. the
prices change of uh April the 10, the
week of the 10th and then the high that
was made at peak D was um the week of
the 13th of March and that was at 108.82
82. This is continuous contract.
Remember the best thing you could look
at is really the UCO which is three
times short and it is ex just today. It
went exactly to man and we had this and
we I just didn't get back in. Why?
Because it kind of gaps up and then you
know what's going to happen. But it was
my ideal pick. Didn't hold it. We did
have it. We didn't hold it. Made some
money and then we got out. So look at
this. The high that was made in UCO back
on the May the 22nd. see it has slightly
different
uh date dates than the other. Uh it was
52.94
today high today's high was 52.80
we were within pennies away from testing
to see whether it can go to a leg E in
the daily and that leg C could be an
alternate count but I'm calling it a C
in the weekly and that will be a leg C
in the monthly chart with a high that
we're looking at of 55.60 60 back in
June of 2022.
All right, this is not a great scenario.
Now the Dow's down 237, S&P is down 56
and um
man. Oh, but look at this.
Um
okay, we know we did not get back into
our RBK. This is nice move. This is obby
rubric cyber security cloud data
management ransom recovery very good
move up eight today you just can't tell
with these things they act so poorly
then suddenly pop they have a good
upside action so this is acting very
nicely today I'm going to emphasize
today all right next question came in
let's see basil uh as we assess the
short side in traders coin that's my
daily news there the the the the channel
the the chart that as my all the
positions trader corner. It sure would
be a lot more comforting if the diamond
weekly wasn't only in PB. [music]
Seems like we could get a big upside at
any time for Yeah, that's that's a good
question. I'm going to go through that.
But at this particular point, um
negative is the way. Look at this. Look
at that. We went into the rectangle to
the top [music] and now we went right to
the bottom.
This is not good. I'll be back in a
moment. Basel chap this is our a
negative basel chapman I'm sorry
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we're back and we're looking at the D
down 227. But the question came in about
just using the D. The question was for
the D. I'll go to the D. Now, you made a
PC in the weekly chart. Excuse me.
And you see the nine period moving
average above the 14 right there. Um I'm
going to move that away there. You can
see a little better. Let me just check
in on my charts. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, you
can see it nicely. So that's the green
line above the 14 period moving average
black line. Um that could take a while.
It could actually happen very quickly.
But the 9 period moving average on a
weekly basis going below the black line
to go pink. You'd have to see the Dow
somewhere in the 51
500 area. That's my thinking right now.
So it's another maybe thousand points
800 points down. So these things do
happen quickly. But most importantly
what we're looking at is uh the monthly
chart. Well first of all to negate this
PC
you'd have to see a low below the 45,057
low that started off in April. All
right. Yes. If it came down to the
50,000 level, I say, "Oh, man, that
looks like it's going to avoid." And
then what we might get is a peak A B C D
under that peak C and that'll be a
prioritization of the waveform. But I
don't want to go there. Look, it's this
is this is a very slow roll. Look, even
the Dow um which should have been very
negative. Look, I just read to you
Google up. Um even Disney is up. So,
it's just a couple of stocks that are
dragging it down. Um, and that's the way
it's been. It's been real good and then
real poor. So, as I see it at this
particular point, um, I'm not going to I
being short, I think, is the pro is the
is the right position to be in. We get
stopped out. We get stopped out. Big
deal. We can always jump back in. But
and I did not get stopped out because we
got out of our long position up there
and I said, "Oh man, this looks like
it's going to break down. Um I should be
short, but because I expected the
choppiness, it was really hard." But the
fact is it's worked out so far and
that's the way it is. The um question
came in also about um
Yeah. So your your question about we
could get a big upside at any time. The
way I'm looking at it, I've said this
before and it hasn't been accurate. I've
said, "How many times can the
administration pull something out of the
hat and have the market spike up because
they thought a deal was close?" I I at
this point it really you've extended.
You've got the hooties. You've got the
Houthies Houthies. Uh you're you're it's
much wider than it was. All right. So
that just says to me, keep crude oil in
your mind because that is holding very
well. It is not an all-time high, a
recovery high. They're very close to the
high that was made back in March. And
all I can say is I don't see anything on
the chart. Look at the flat stochcastic.
When the stochastic goes up over 80% and
then comes down, be careful. And that's
exactly what happened. And you see that
peak? See how weak it was? You see that
chart there? Keep your eye on this part
of the chart. Have a look at this chart.
This chart right here.
You remember I spoke about it. I said
this is weak. This is not a good this is
not good action in gold. I don't know
why it's not much higher. So a charge is
a charge. So all I can say is as it
stands right now, a lot of things could
happen. But as long as we've got this
rotation that at some point other some
areas are weak, other areas are making
out. Look at this. All of a sudden,
you've got PN A W
P. Oh, I shouldn't have said anything
still. I remember P A N W.
What am I? I'm looking for the
W. Is that not right? Yeah, there it is.
P AW. Palter Networks. A huge leg up in
the weekly. Look at this. The monthly.
The weekly is holding beautifully. And
look at this big spike we got today. So
this is that whole cyber security thing.
So maybe that
>> [clears throat]
>> uh
stock be had did so nicely uh rubric is
back in play again because this is the
cyber part of AI everything involved. So
you see the rotation that I'm talking
about. It didn't look like that on
Friday. Didn't it look like on Friday?
That was lousy. Look at that. Uh for pal
pala networks and all of a sudden look
what happens today. Look at hack. This
is the it
look horrible. I I was looking at this
over the weekend. I just show my
subscribers because we were looking at
other things. But that looked lousy. I
didn't show it because it looked lousy.
Suddenly today it moves. So that's is
amplify cyber security ETF. All right.
So, let's go back. So, the question came
in. Could I look at Yes, I did look at
crude oil. Oh, you want CLSK? CLSK.
CLSK. Yes, I should know this by now.
Uh,
Clear Park, Inc. Clear Park Inc. Am I Am
I going to Oh, Clean Park. Okay, this is
Energy. Nice move today, but it's just
stuck. So, this is what I'm talking
about. They look great and then they
just stall. See how strong that nine
that 200 period moving average is? It's
like a magnet. It just keeps being drawn
right back to that. So until it can get
is it 12 138 down 30 c 38 cents today.
But that doesn't look right. Oh. Oh, cuz
it had a good Friday. And until it can
trade in the 14.80 to 15.10 area for two
out of three sessions, I think this is
just kind of stuck. It's looking quite
good right now. Um, and the weekly chart
still doesn't look good because the
night moving average hasn't turned
positive. Yeah, I'm going to stay with
that. So, parameters to watch 14.80 to
15.10. That would be the best sign
because it'll say it's starting to move
up even more. But if it breaks down and
closes down to $1245,
stuck. It's just not going anywhere.
Hope that helps you. And next question
came in and that is uh yeah so um
so I consider the the semis to be always
to be the most important sector of the
of the market for forever where they go
the general market is going to go at
some point not always at the same time
but it's just a directional indicator
okay so I was showing you Nvidia so
Nvidia [clears throat] that's the one
that didn't
a round number at the all-time high.
That's the one I expected to be right
there. Um, and that was at 236.54
back in May. Let's see if I can just
swing this over here.
Yeah, 230. So, what does it do the very
So, it makes that high. Um, and then the
very next day, nothing. But then what
happens? The second day it has
Where is that round number?
Didn't Wait, where's the 230 come from?
230. Uh, I must have put it in, but Oh,
there it is. 230 on the 18th. So, that's
2 days later. It has a 230 high and then
it comes tumbling down. But look at
this. It's already back. So, it did the
inside. Uh, this is the falling
acclamation. Now what I can do is I can
say um
oh and I love this. Look what happened.
It went all the way to two 234.76
[music] a double top 23476 on the uh 4th
of September and now it's pulling back.
I'll be back in a moment.
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So, I'm going to keep usually I get rid
of anything that I think is just plain
old redundant, but I'm [music] going to
keep this jab inside uh track repellent
propellant zone in place because it's
already done the cup formation with a
double top and ready 23654 back in uh
14th of May. It tumbles down to 189.
Then it comes back and goes to 234.76.
I can't tell you how many double tops I'
I've noticed. So, the two techniques
that are really talking about tops for
quite a while now. Have I written it
down yet? Double top. Double top. Let me
just I don't want to move away too
quickly from what we're talking about.
Um,
okay.
Uh, yeah. Okay. I'll get to it. But
look, this says that Nvidia, look, that
monthly chart is still fantastic, but
this is the daily and it says it should
come back into this inside track.
Now it's the prop palen zone, but 198.76
is the 200 point moving average, 200
period moving average. So that should be
rising a little bit. So this is the
area. In fact, I'll circle it and at
some point I think we'll be going there.
And when we get there, that will be
where we start to I think start to
accelerate lower in the semiconductors.
They're already down 27, but they've
been counted down 27 all day. So, all
sessions just over an hour and a
quarter. So, okay. And now look at the
weekly chart. Weekly chart. Yeah, double
top made a peak B. Uh that made a an E
slash. I'm still calling an E/ A because
I could give you a justification for
calling it an A and I can give you
justification for calling it an E. But
my my instinct is to tell me that
there's going to be a big consolidation
here. Here I do not want this is just
irritating my eye. So I'm going to get
rid of it. It served its purpose. Did
the job. And now we're looking at more
this cup formation left side, right side
to the to the left to the right.
[snorts] So Nvidia, keep it in mind. one
of the great stocks uh that we've had at
some now does is this saying it's all
over all the yakity yak about Nvidia?
No, I think there's still enough room. I
could give alternate counts. I don't see
any reason why I should. I think that is
a peak B in the monthly chart and we
should go to a CD in 2026. Nvidia
semiconductors GP accelerated computing
blah blah blah. But in the meantime, I
think it's taking a bit of a breather.
Okay, now I wanted to show you Oh, ADM.
That was the one. So this is not AMD but
ADF. This is Archer Daniels Midlands.
Did I do something wrong? Did something
looked wrong there? I spelled it
incorrectly.
Get rid of that. Boom. Okay. So, uh, Dan
Eels. Dan Eels. I missed the E on the
wrong side. There it is. Okay. What
we're looking at here is that this is
Let me see if I can just do this. I want
to get this correct. I don't want to
just guess it. So, oh, there's my I'll
get rid of that. So, what we're looking
at is Archer
Daniels
does
[clears throat]
um a global leader in human and animal
nutrition. H I wouldn't have guessed
that. I completely for I knew it was in
something to do with
kind of biosciences. Human and animal
nutrition. Human
and [clears throat]
animal [music]
nutrition.
Okay. I didn't know that we went
together, but it looks like we do go
together. Um and processing or
agricultural or ah it's the agree part
of it that I was really thinking of. I
would say that's why I would have missed
this part. Angry. Okay. Um, yeah, look
at that. A very nice move to the upside.
Look at this. This is the monthly chart.
98. There's the double top. 98.88 back
in April of 2022. It takes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
months. Retested at 98.28
cup. It goes right down to the 39 level.
38 39. And then it comes back again in a
cup formation. It's taken out this left
side high. So it says that the 98 should
be a target even though it's in a leg D.
Look at the MACD. Everything's very very
positive. So I just wanted to mention
that someone has said um what are you
looking at? That looks good. All I can
say is that Archie Daniels is looking
very good right now. That's the monthly
chart. So that means the shorter term is
the weekly and leg D right now.
[clears throat] Not a peak D because it
made a higher high uh this month uh this
week. Um, and it went from last week's
high of 90 80875
to this week of 80
8873.
So, this could become a peak D. We'll
see. All right. So, it's a leg D in the
weekly chart. It's a peak E in the uh
daily chart. Uh, but once again, double
topish because it made a high on the
23rd of July of 88.48.
So, isn't that interesting? Uh, I didn't
do a left side, right? I would have had
to use that do tiny dogee over there as
the midpoint. I think I would have
missed it. Yeah. Would have missed it by
one bar. Okay. So, left side, right side
probably bar symmetry. Okay. So, you
have things that are working and then
you come across a mo. Look at this
mosaic. You think come on mosaic. This
is Did I not put it in? Yeah. Mosaic
Company, chemicals, phosphates, potach
fertilizer. Surely this should be in the
area that's really doing well. H the
weekly chart did go to leg C then a PC.
The um daily chart just went to a PG. Um
and yet it said 24 just uh in July it
was up in the 37 36s and the high was
79.03 back in April of 2022. You see
this is what I mean about the
selectivity of this particular um phase.
It just something works something
doesn't work. Something in the same c
look at proctor and gamble. Proctor and
gamble today. Nice move up um up 95
cents at 14622. Lousy [clears throat]
rectangle charts already gone to a PD
under the 200 per moving average. Uh
Johnson and Johnson defensive as well,
but it's got the healthcare part of it
going to a Pak D.
>> [clears throat]
>> uh oh it had the round number that was
back in July before it pulled back
sharply but then it went to another high
that was high of 281.07 07 on the uh
92nd of September. I don't see any round
numbers. Nope, no round numbers. Very
nice. So, it's uh up today 315 is a red
candle, but it did gap up, but this is a
much better chart, but they kind of be
in the same same sectors. All right.
Now, what about
NAT Nordic American tankers? Well, it's
in a leg D, a leg F in the weekly chart
of that instant restart and a leg D in
the monthly chart. So, I think it's
going to give us good clues. That and
Frontier are the ones in the energy
sector. Um, that are going to just be
very important. Look at this. Frontier,
a new alltime high at 49.90 today, hit
50.42. Leg C in the daily chart, leg E
in the weekly chart, and leg in the
monthly chart. Frontier limited
shipping. All right. So, I've done a
bunch. I've got I haven't gone around
the world. I've forgotten about Bitcoin.
Look, Bitcoin is holding. Okay. It's up
1305. That's why we still have it for
subscribers in the opening call because
it seemed to be between that and the
gold sector that it seemed to be kind of
a little contrary to what's going on in
the general market, but [clears throat]
it's holding the 200. It's like glued to
the 200
in the daytime. It is glued to the 200
pip moving average in the weekly chart.
Uh something needs to happen here for it
to to really show some stats. It needs
to get to 84,000
um [music] to 78,700.
I don't know if it can, but that'll be
the the most important thing if it can
do that. I'll be back in a moment. Bas
down to
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>> Got a question about MP materials. MP is
the symbol [music] trading at 50.89 up
38. Um, so yeah, this is the same thing.
You think [music] that the rare Yeah, US
US
uh US I think it is US rare. Yep, there
it is. Same thing. Look at that. PD also
pulling back. So, this is what I mean.
They were looking great just 3 weeks
ago. All of a sudden, they're not
looking so great. So, I just be careful
here. It's very selective. And uh even
more important than just saying it's
selective, it's within the groups
themselves. Each one is doing something
a little different. So just real
quickly, the GDX. Oh, did I do that? I
didn't. So GDX is down 3.51. It's done
the dreaded AC has pulled back. I think
it's more consolidation right now based
on the weekly chart, but it should have
had a better by the end of the day. It
needs to have some kind of a rally. Gold
needs to have some kind of rally
otherwise this is also going to be in a
digestive phase. Uh, what did I also
want to look at? Did that did that? Oh,
TBT. This is the yields. So, the yields
right now, you've gone to a leg C in the
daily, a leg E in the weekly chart.
We're getting so close to the 40s. Wow.
That means the 4% uh in the ultra short
limit 20 Tbond ETF. Yeah. Yeah. That's
not so good. Um, so yeah. So, I'm just
saying you're going to be going to Steve
Rose right now. Um, and uh couple of
things. Number one is be careful. Raise
cash. We've raised cash. I think it's
really important to have cash. Don't be
overleveraged on anything that's not
working. If it's not working, say, you
know what, I'll sacrifice some upside. I
don't want What was Dave Weiss's
beautiful expression? Better to be out
wishing you were in than in wishing you
were out. I I I think that that holds
right now. So, just be very careful.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch. The day is
young. We're an hour and a half into
this first first trading day of the
week.
We'll see what happens by the close and
u check out opening Paul D [music]
newsletter and I will see Oh my good.
Yeah, that's we still I guess that was a
question. Yeah. Yeah, we still I All
right, folks. Have a wonderful day and I
will see you tomorrow. [music]