Video summary
The market update for September 14th highlights a significant shift in momentum following a major ABCD chart pattern identified in the Dow Jones Industrial Average earlier in the week. Although crude oil prices initially surged by three dollars per barrel, causing a sharp decline in futures markets overnight, the index has since recovered and entered a sustained rally mode. This recovery is particularly notable given that the market recently tested key resistance levels, with December futures hitting a high of 53,100 before settling slightly below that mark. The current action reflects a bifurcated market environment where indices are reacting differently to recent volatility, yet the overall trend for the Dow Jones has turned bullish after days of bearish pressure.
A crucial aspect of this analysis involves distinguishing between different market components and contract months, as the September contracts are rolling over into December futures which drive current trading signals. The speaker emphasizes that while the broader market sentiment remains technically bearish based on recent lows, the immediate price action shows a strong upward correction. This rally is occurring despite earlier fears triggered by energy prices, demonstrating the resilience of the index as it navigates through these short-term fluctuations. Understanding which specific stocks and sectors are driving each index is essential for interpreting these signals correctly, especially given the dominance of AI and technology stocks in the NASDAQ versus the broader composition of the S&P 500 and Russell indices.
Beyond equities, the transcript also addresses a dramatic reversal in precious metals markets after weeks of intense bearishness against gold and silver. The speaker points out that gold recently experienced a massive drop of approximately $100 per ounce, which coincided with a perfect ABCD pattern at the 32 level, leading to a steep decline before the current rally began. This volatility in commodities mirrors the equity market's recent behavior, where sharp drops were followed by rapid recoveries. The analysis suggests that investors should pay close attention to these metal prices as they often lead or confirm broader market trends, with the current setup indicating a potential continuation of the upward momentum seen in other asset classes.
In conclusion, the video presents a nuanced view of the current market landscape where technical patterns like ABCD formations are being used to predict short-term reversals from bearish to bullish states. The speaker advises viewers to focus on December futures rather than expiring September contracts to get an accurate read on future market direction. While energy prices remain a source of volatility, the overarching theme is one of recovery and rally across major indices like the Dow Jones, provided that traders correctly interpret the interplay between different market sectors and contract months. The final takeaway is that despite the confusing mix of bearish indicators and sharp price drops, the market structure currently supports a positive outlook for the coming sessions.
Read the full video transcript
TFN
Headline news [music] update.
Okay folks, Larry Pestoveno for TFN. If
you remember last Thursday, we were
seeing a major ABCD pattern here in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index that
we have posted here this morning. That
number came in at 51,875.
The actual low was 60 points away from
that. And now, as you can see from these
last several days, we have been in a
rally mode. Even though the market was
sharply lower this morning, you know,
based on the fact that crude oil had
gapped up $3 a barrel and is now lower
on the day, as is heating oil and in
gasoline. We'll cover those at the top
of the hour, of course, because those
were the big things that were making the
markets jump up so far. Now, if we
switch over and just take a look here
this morning, you can see this is the
Dow Jones December futures. You can see
the big gap down we had last night that
stopped exactly at 61% retracement. The
high was exactly 382. As you can see, we
just hit it again just now, exactly at
the number 53,100
and it's now 70 points below that. But
that's still a very small amount. But
that's what we're doing, folks. We have
a bifurcated market as Basil Chapman
always talks about. You know, the Dow
Jones is basically only 30 stocks, 20 of
which are triple digits. The Russell is
2,000 stocks of small caps. Then we have
the NASDAQ that is, you know, primarily
20 to 25 stocks of the AI and computer
variety. And then we have the S&P 500.
So those are the ones that we're
watching as we go through. So the
different signals that you see depends
upon which which index you're watching.
But so far we are still in a bearish
mode. But we we are rallying. This is
the third day of the rally folks because
you have to use the index because that
we're now December futures. You see the
futures is December futures are
different than September. September
rolling over now. So they're using
December as the thing. So that's why you
want to be watching it. Now we've been
very very bearish on the gold as you
know for and silver for the past five or
six weeks. And as you can see here, uh,
today we were down $100 a barrel, folks.
I show I sent this out last night, uh,
real early in the evening because, uh,
you can see it was just about midnight
and there was a perfect ABCD exactly at
the 32, folks. It dropped $10,000
straight down. As you can see here,
we're having a nice rally and you'll see
the rally as we bring it up. You won't
believe it, but here it is.
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