September 10th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] >> Welcome back, folks. We've got an S&P down by 50 points right now. Yields rising, and we got metals pulling back. To talk about some of the action right now, folks, we're going to jump over to our man Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. To check out Tim, you can visit his website, folks. There you see it, ord-oracle.com. And don't forget, if you head on over to TFN and folks, right under the services tab, Tim's got two great webinars, the six secret ratios every trader should know, as well as the secret science of market tops and how to identify those market tops tops. Check check those out as well. I'll get it out. Tim Ord, good afternoon. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Uh I got some interesting stuff starting to go on here. Uh this is kind of Where did my indicator go? Here it is. Anyhow, this is the June kind of same thing we talked about uh on Tuesday, but this is a June high, uh the July high comes right around uh 755 area. And we had a sign of strength. Uh can't quite there, but this is or this green area sign of strength SOS through that high. And a lot of times you go back and test it. Uh we tested there on lower volume, had a rally, now we're back down into that uh gap area, which is the um Yeah, it's the August 4th gap. Had 6.9 million shares. Um when I made this chart So, in other words, you test this gap, you want to be 10% less. So, it comes in around 72 or 62 million shares. So, anything 62 million shares or less, this gap should hold. And this gap's also, again, the high of June and July. Uh so, this is an important area. If it doesn't hold, um then we could possibly have made a top. Uh my opinion, uh I think it probably will hold. We had a trend close here a couple of days ago, 1.34 a couple of days ago. Um a day later, we had 902 down tick readings. That's bullish combination. She just low should form as earliest as the day of those readings to the latest two days later. Um that actually be today. Some it could be tomorrow, but it's normally latest usually two days. I have extended out to three days, but usually panic really kind of shows up right before the next next rally. So, I'm thinking this is going to this 40 area is going to hold. So, we're still bullish. We're in a support area. We got a little bit of panic especially in the text, but a little bit of panic in the trend on the weekly time frame. Um Yeah, this is the bottom window is the weekly Vix. We're actually above 17 right now. When I made this chart, it's 17.52. And the next window up is the weekly um weekly Sfixx ratio. And when both of them are above the mid Bollinger Band, um that's all the green area here. Um when both are above the mid Bollinger Band. This is a weekly chart now. The uptrend's intact. When when one of them falls below the mid Bollinger Band, which is the yellow here, we got actually yellow today. If you notice here's kind of a blow up window. You can see when I made that chart. >> It's a thing, yeah. >> Um the weekly Sfixx ratio is below the mid Bollinger Band. So, that turned to yellow. Um here's the Sfixx. We're still above the mid Bollinger Band. So, both of them have to go below the Bollinger Band to get the sell signal. So, right now um we're in the you know, yeah, the red area's here are when both are below the mid Bollinger Band. So, we're not in a actually the pink area. Pink area right here. That's when both are below the mid Bollinger Bands. >> And I think I see the Bollinger Band right here. >> I think it will. >> I was just going to say the Bollinger Band, where's it around at? Like 7550, 7560, something like that? If it was the S and the spy, the SPX. >> Uh yeah, it's uh It's a little bit uh >> right? Yeah. >> Yeah, you can see I can't quite uh >> Not far from where we are right now. I'm just looking at those Those are 50-point jumps in between each one, right? So, you're talking about, I think, right? 7525, 7540, something like that? >> Yeah. >> Not far from where we are right now. I Yeah, and not often that you have a change Not a change of trend, but that the last time we talked to you it was green, right? And then we got a little yellow, so something to watch. And the Vix almost I think we just hit 18. We're at 17.93 right now on the Vix, Tim. And we So, yeah, quite a number. >> Yeah. So, yeah, so it's kind of a interesting what's going to go on here. So, we got to get below this line. Then that'll be actually below the previous highs here, too. >> Right. >> June and July. So, you you break the below the previous high, so but you know, next week's expiration week, which normally has a bullish bias, so we're kind of saying Here's here's a blown-up chart. You can see a little actually a little better what's going on. Here's support. Here's that Bollinger Band. Uh the Bollinger Band that 7521. >> Awesome. Okay. >> So, that's where that line is, and you see here we're below the Bollinger Band on that. So, you can see what's going on. >> But you you actually compare volume. See this sign of strength right here through the previous highs. That's what you have to have. You have to have a sign of strength through the previous highs, and previous highs become support. And you measure the up volume or you measure when it's rallying, you measure how that volume pulls back. And if it starts pulling back higher, that can be a worrisome sign. And this is earlier in the trading day today, but volume it gets higher than it did last week uh on the down day that would be kind of worrisome. So, we'll see what plays out, but I think this area is going to hold. Uh but we yeah, we're in a kind of a a blue area or a a yellow area because the uh SPX fixed ratio is below its mid Bollinger band. So, yeah, it's kind of a worrisome and usually September's not usually the first the first half of September September's up seasonally wise, and the second half of September's down. And again, next week's expiration week which normally in September is a bullish bias. So, if the market rallies I'll get back to this chart here. I don't know why that jumped up, but anyway if this market rallies and it rallies next week uh kind of light volume rally and we don't go above the previous highs, uh we could be setting up for some sort of a top. How big a top? Don't know, but you know, the next uh area we uh support comes in around 7,000 which is basically this high. So, could it pull back to 7,000? Uh maybe. So, but I'm still long. It's too It's too soon to say you know you jump out of the long side right now. I just don't I don't think we're we're set up for it. At least not yet. So, >> Can I ask you because people in the Tiger's Den of course and I know you live by the ratios and the charts and and I do to a certain degree as well, but they're just asking I want to get your feel. Like crude, right? Crude at 103. Does that Do you think about that at all coming in? And then the yields conversation, I'll throw that in as well. What do you Does that give you, you know, do you think about that stuff or you just living by because crude Yeah. >> No. Well, the market kind of interprets all that stuff. So, all the smart money, you know, the the old traders and the the day traders and all that stuff, they they already made their bets or they're making their bets right now. They're making them right now today, exactly. They're making them right now. So, it's now the market's already interpreted and the smart money of the oil and and the debt people are making their bets and >> I don't know if you heard me before you were coming on, but maybe, you know, if we're going to get a hike, it's already almost priced in. Even even over the last week, it's almost priced in. It keeps getting They keep pricing in hikes every single week. Now, I All right, folks, we're going to come back and talk some metal with Tim. We'll come back. We'll be right back. >> [music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got the S&P down by 42 points right now, trading right at about 7,600. We're talking with Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. Don't forget, folks, he's got two great webinars under the services tab at tfnn.com and his website ord-oracle.com. And I see you still got one chart on on the markets, Tim. Go for it. Didn't mean to jump in, please. >> Wyckoff breadth thrust indicator. We're below 0.4 right now. And this rally comes off this market pretty strongly, it pushes this Wyckoff breadth thrust indicator up around 0.6, you're not going to see a top of any consequence anyhow. So, so the next rally has to have a sign of strength. If it doesn't, and it just kind of wattles up, I guess you might say, here's another indicator. This indicator, RSI, has to get above uh 60. Uh somewhere in there. You know, ideally, it gets above, you know, 70, even 80. So, that'd be kind of a sign of strength. So, yeah, I'm watching how this next rally performs. I do think since this next week's expiration week and we're at a support area, I think that we'll still get the bounce. If we don't, uh and the SPX closes below the mid Bollinger band on a weekly timeframe, I'm out of my long position. So, it's kind of simple >> rules. Uh let's get back to the gold Let's get to the gold market. Um okay, it's a different animal here. After July low uh this is the 18-day average up down volume show this decline last any any care last time. On August 26th, we get almost 42. And all I have to do is hit 40. That's initiation of an uptrend starting on a smaller timeframe. It's only an 18-day average, which is basically through about a little over 3 weeks of data. Anyhow, works pretty well. Um This is These are the last ones. This chart goes back to 2014. It's a pretty rare uh it's a pretty rare signal. You get maybe one a year, if that. Uh last time we got one was 2025. Uh that was coming off That's actually even an uptrend and it blasted up and we got one now. So, we got a minor consolidation going around. Uh but the bottom window is the GDX GLD ratio. It's on a daily timeframe. And if you notice, we're making higher highs on that ratio. This ratio leads the SPX. And the And the SPX has not made a new high yet. We're in a consolidation phase here. It's just a minor one. It's uh around 98 99 somewhere. I I'm not sure. Uh I don't have the price right in front of me. But the next rally I bet keeps going. And how high I don't know. The reason why cuz this ratio's already hitting higher highs. >> [snorts] [cough] >> Excuse me. Well, go through Anyhow, there was one failure uh right here. We picked out a high, but the other uh I think there's six times here. So, there's a 3% chance this rally is going to continue. Uh so, not really too scared about what's going on right now. Uh All right, here's another blown up ratio. You can see it there a lot better. Um Here the ratio made a lower high, while the SP or GDX made higher highs. You got the little minor pullback. Uh here you got uh higher lows and G A if you got lower lows, that's a bullish divergence. Got the rally. It hit a new high on GD or GDXJ ratio breaking above that high. GDX has not break above the high yet. Uh, even on a short-term scale, this scale this little box right here is this box right here. So, over the last couple of weeks this ratio even hit higher highs where the Yeah, we're about right looks like about 96. And so, anyway, everything looks bullish momentum wise. These are momentum indicators. Uh, the bottom window is the cumulative advanced decline. Next window up is the cumulative up down volume. Both are above their mid Bollinger band. So, you got advanced decline and up down volume for GDX in an uptrend. So, I don't see a top of any consequence there. You you can kind of see it a little bit better here. We're in the green area right now. I did this a couple hours ago. So, no sign of a top. Um, I did some We're going to skip Yeah, we we got time to do this. This is the um This is gold going back to 2000. Uh, goes all the way back to 2000. And And it's a 4-year which is or is a 8-year cycle which is the red part. And a 16-year cycle which is the blue blue side here semi-circle. And in a nutshell, it works pretty well. Um, the picked out the lows of 2008 and 2016 and 2000 or it was a low but not the low low in 2023. The next highs I These are all the highs. That's mid-cycle of of the four of the 8-year cycle. And picked out the 2012 high, picked out the 2000 20 high. Uh, next high is due in September of 2027, which is a year from now. Uh so, I'm thinking this cycle is going to work fairly well. So, I'm thinking a year from now we may see a cycle high. I'm not sure where that cycle high is going to be, but I think it could be up in the two or I don't know where gold's going to be, but I think GDX will be double from here. And here's something else that's really going on. And this is uh the HUI to S SPX VIX ratio or the HUI SPX VIX ratio. It's a monthly timeframe. And this is a monthly HUI going back to Looks like a 90 6. >> Uh >> Yeah. >> goes back as far as I could go. Anyhow, I put an RSI to it. Excuse me. And what's important about this RSI, so when this ratio is rising, uh that means uh gold stocks are outperforming the SPX. When it's declining, then the SPX is outperforming the HUI. So, when this ratio is rising, which it has been, uh coming off lows, it has to be coming off lows and that mid-cycle has to come off a low. The RSI has to hit up in the plus 80s. And I keep talking about initiation of an uptrend. And we we hit almost 90 on this last one. This last one over here was 80 something. I have I have to go back and look what it was, but this is even higher. So, that's coming off of the first really uh low. It wasn't rallying for It was rallying for about a year, but this is the monthly timeframe. So, it's a big big timeframe to look at. And as long as this RSI holds above 50, that says the gold stocks will continue outperforming the SPX. If you notice, we hit 50 here. Probably this is probably the July low, and it turned right back up. So, we may find some resistance up around 70 area again, but probably we're going to bang around in this trading range between 50 to 70. I bet over the next several years. This cycle went from basically 2011 to 2000 or 2000 1 approximately to 2012. So, it went basically 10 years. I think there's something, but what's important if this never made it to 70 or just hit 70 barely and turned back down, then that would have changed the whole scenario or the whole picture for the gold stocks, but it did not do that. We went almost went to 90. And if you're looking at textbooks, that's an initiation of uptrend that has to have coming off of the bottom. That's so when you have a bear market, that first rally off that major low has to be extreme and we do have that here. So, this is still in the early stages of bull market and I bet this bull market gold stocks will outperform the SPX. Could be for the next 10 years just because of the cycle work. So, this is important. I like it. So, >> I like it, man. We'll We'll see as we move forward, but I agree with a lot of the analysis, man. I mean, the setup and you know, pretty remarkable. The gold contracts, folks, you know, you go from basically 4,000 recently 10 to 4362. So, we're up like 9% in the gold contract and the GDX trades from $70 and we're sitting at 96. You're up almost 40% just in terms of those equities leading the metal. Pretty cool. Tim, appreciate it, man, as always. We look forward to talking to you next week, next Tuesday. All right, talk to you then. Thanks so much. Talk to you then. Folks, come right back.