Science Seminar: Using spectral landscape ecology to infer patterns of intraspecific variation
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Dr. Megan Cely presented a seminar on utilizing spectral landscape ecology to understand intraspecific variation within Fremont cottonwood forests across the US Southwest, leveraging high-resolution data from the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform. While field observations provide detailed insights at the individual level, remote sensing is crucial for scaling these findings to broader landscapes. The presentation detailed how different spectral regions capture distinct plant traits, with visible wavelengths reflecting pigments like chlorophyll, near-infrared indicating canopy structure, and shortwave infrared revealing biochemical properties such as water content. A significant finding was that large-scale species classifications often fail not merely due to observation conditions or spatial autocorrelation, but because of biological variation driven by genotype-by-environment interactions, where different ecotypes respond uniquely to thermal stress and precipitation patterns.
Research demonstrated that shortwave infrared bands offer superior transferability for species classification compared to visible or red-edge bands because they capture conserved biochemical signals less affected by environmental fluctuations. Furthermore, the study found that intraspecific spectral diversity is lowest in thermally stressful environments, suggesting that future climate change may select for narrower phenotypic ranges. Phenological analysis revealed that the Sonoran Desert ecotype exhibits greater plasticity and accelerated spring greenup compared to the Utah High Plateau ecotype, a divergence expected to amplify under future warming scenarios. The study concludes that anthropogenic disruptions to riparian connectivity combined with climate change could constrain the adaptive capacity of these populations, potentially leading to cascading ecological consequences.
Regarding technical data quality, Dr. Cely confirmed that data saturation was not an issue in their specific study, though they applied brightness normalization to standardize differences across sites and observation angles. While acknowledging that technical NEON procedures handle calibration rigorously, she noted that saturation remains a general technical concern for the network rather than a personal experience in this project. Addressing questions about image spectroscopy limitations, she explained that current imagery primarily captures top-canopy reflectance, occasionally offering glimpses of the understory if the canopy is not fully closed. Although LiDAR data can penetrate the canopy to reveal structural information of both overstory and understory, it lacks the full spectral detail required for chemical composition analysis, making deep understory spectroscopy a current limitation.
The presentation was identified as an NSF-funded NEON Research Support Services project where an external team contracted NEON for data collection. The session concluded with praise for the talk, an announcement of the next seminar in October featuring Microsoft's AI for Good Lab on biodiversity solutions, and confirmation that a recording would be posted shortly. Overall, the seminar effectively bridged remote sensing technology with ecological theory to highlight how spectral diversity serves as a vital indicator of population resilience against changing environmental conditions.
Read the full video transcript
I'm really excited to welcome uh Dr.
Megan Cely Megs who is a post-doal
research scholar at Arizona State
University and a forest ecologist
specializing in remote sensing and
imaging spectroscopy.
Her research seeks to understand how
ecological processes operating across
biological and spatial scales shape
forest resilience. She integrates field
ecology with earth earth observations to
study biodiversity adaptation and
ecosystem function across landscapes
with work spanning riparian cottonwood
forests in the southwestern United
States and native and invasive forests
in Hawaii.
Outside of her research, Megs is an avid
outrigger paddler and is currently
training for a race from Ma Machai to
Wahu. She re recently accepted a
post-docctoral fellowship at the
University of Utah where she will
continue her work on cottonwood forests
and investigate how hybridization may
contribute to forest resilience in the
face of rapid environmental change. So
direct from Hawaii,
let's welcome uh Meg Celely. Welcome
Meg.
>> Thank you.
Okay, welcome everyone. Thank you all
for attending today. Today I will be
talking to you about spectral landscape
ecology as a tool for inferring the
spatial organization of inject specific
variation and I'll be using neon imaging
spectroscopy to do so. And so
essentially I'll be looking at and using
remote sensing as a tool for scaling up
ecological inference. We can measure
ecological processes in incredible
detail at the individual and site level.
But how do we scale those observations
across landscapes?
And so I wanted to first start by
introducing NEON, the National
Ecological Observatory Network, which
many of you are probably familiar with.
They collect long-term open access
ecological data and that standardized uh
those standardized observations are
collected across diverse ecosystems and
you can see uh their sites represented
here in this figure. And so uh neon is
essentially creating a means of
understanding ecological processes by
integrating observations across spatial
and temporal scales. And so the type of
data neon collects includes uh leaf
level information at which we can
directly measure functional traits that
tell us about how plants acquire and use
resources. We can then scale up from the
leaf to the individual tree to
characterize canopy structure and
function. And then we can continuous to
scale up to the site level or to a
common garden to characterize variation
within and among populations. And so
this is a type of multis-cale
observation framework that NEON employs
to monitor long long-term ecological
change.
But since field observations are
spatially limited, if we want to
continue to scale eological inference,
we need observations that are spatially
continuous. And this is where remote
sensing becomes particularly powerful.
So NEON's airborne observation platform
or AOP provides high resolution imaging
spectroscopy and LAR data which allows
us to extend our ecological observations
from the individual sites to the
landscape landscape scale.
And so for this talk I'll be focusing on
imaging spectroscopy which is a means of
image formation from narrow wavelength
intervals. And so here we can see a
typical vegetation spectrum from 400 nm
to 2500 nmters. And we can separate the
electromagnetic spectrum into the
visible from 400 to about 700 nmters,
the near infrared, and then the red
edge, which is the transition between
the two, and lastly, the shortwave
infrared, which goes um to 2500 nmters
from about 1400 to 2500 nm.
And so by measuring the light reflected
off vegetation, we can capture
information about biochemical and
structural traits. Different molecules
interact with light differently across
the spectrum which produces distinct
spectral signatures. And so because
individuals differ in their biochemical
and structural composition, each
individual can have a unique unique
spectral signature. And so a classic
example of this is chlorophyll.
So referring to the the visible
wavelengths, chlorophyll absorbs more
light in the red and the blue
wavelengths and reflects more light in
the green, which is this little hump
that we see right here. These are the
green wavelengths and this is why we see
vegetation as green. And so it's similar
for uh numerous other molecules and
organels in the plants where different
regions of the spectrum provide
information about different aspects of
vegetation. And so the visible
wavelengths are strongly influenced by
pigments. The near infrared is
particularly sensitive to leaf and
canopy structure. And lastly, the
shortwave infrared or swur contains
information related to leaf water and
other biochemical properties. I would
like to note though that uh these
relationships are not onetoone. Spectral
regions contain overlapping information
and multiple traits can influence
reflectance influence reflectance across
the spectrum.
So now that we are introduced to these
data, what can we do with them and what
ecological questions can we ask and
conservation tools can we develop with
imaging spectroscopy data and the
scaling framework more broadly.
So first we can um conduct we can create
landscape scale species classifications.
Um say we want to identify where
cottonwoods exist across the landscape.
We can use these data to understand
their their uh spatial arrangement on
the landscape.
We can then uh build on this to
understand biological variation because
imaging spectroscopy is considered an
integrated measure of plant phenotypes.
We can use these data to characterize
variation among vegetation communities
or even within populations uh between
populations within a species
and then we can continue to build on
this to predict change and resilience in
these communities. And so for this talk
I want to talk about a case study where
we applied this framework to a
foundation tree species Fremont
cottonwood. It is a riparian species
found in the US southwest. And because
these trees drive ecosystem processes
and influence biodiversity across
multiple trophic levels. Understanding
how these trees vary across the
landscape is important for understanding
ecosystem function and resilience. And
while this case study was not conducted
at NEON sites, we employed a similar
framework by combining common garden and
field observations with remote sensing
data, specifically NEON's AOP data to
scale ecological inference to the
landscape level. And so here is the the
range of Fremont Continent in the US
Southwest. We can see populations in
California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado,
Mexico.
But across its range, Fremont Cottonwood
is not a monolith. There is sub
substantial genetic variation among
populations and in particular we see
evidence for geographically structured
ecotypes associated with distinct
climactic environments. This figure from
both at all shows um the three different
cottonwood ecotypes distributed across
the US southwest. We can see in yellow
the central California ecotype which we
will not be talking about for this talk.
um instead we'll be focusing on the Utah
high plateau ecotype represented in
green and the Soran desert ecotype
represented in blue and these ecotypes
exhibit distinct characteristics even
when grown under the same environmental
conditions and we know this from common
garden experiments which help reinforce
a central theme of this work which is
genotype environment and genotype by
environment interactions.
And so we can think about uh genotype
effects. Um at its simplest it refers to
the genetic background of the
environment. Um so we can ask questions
like do differences among ecotypes
persist under the same environmental
conditions.
The environmental effects describe the
conditions in which the individual grows
and so changes in traits or performance
are associated with the environmental
conditions.
And lastly, the genotype by environment
interactions occurs when different
genotypes respond differently to those
environmental conditions. And so
essentially the effect of environment
depends on genotype.
So now that we have some of the vocab
out of the way, I want to talk about uh
first talk about landscape scale species
classifications.
So we have uh we collected data using uh
NEO's AOP. We collected imaging for
trust and lighter data across two
watersheds in the US southwest. We
collected data in central Arizona which
represents the snoring desert ecotype.
These data were collected in 2021 and we
collected some more data in Utah and
Colorado and that represents Utah high
plateau ecoype and those data were
collected in 2022. And so this type of
study design where the data were
collected um at different times um in
different regions is not unique to this
case study. Logistical constraints often
limit our ability to collect airborne
imaging spectroscopy data resulting in
temporarily distinct collection times.
And I'll touch on how this affects our
classifications uh in a bit. I also want
to note that these data I separated
these data into 17 distinct sites. Each
site is 6 km by 6 km. And I did this to
um uh make the analyses a little bit
easier um and and have uh geographically
constrained regions. So when we classify
a species using remote sensing data, the
rationale behind why it works is that
species differ in their leaf and canopy
structure as well as their chemical
composition. And this results in unique
canopy reflectance for each species. Um
and so we often refer to this as a
unique spectral fingerprint. And so we
feed our machine learning algorithms uh
examples of canopy reflectance from the
different species represented in our
data set. So it learns the the unique
spectral fingerprints of each species.
Once that we trained our machine
learning algorithm of choice, we apply
it back to our data and we get our
species classifications.
Now, this tends to work really well in
small geographic regions, but when we
start to try to scale up our species
classifications to larger areas, we
often get mclassifications.
And these mclassifications um could
result in errors in our biological
inference. And it can also result in
lost time when it comes to conservation
effort. So, if we're trying to identify
where an invasive species is on the
landscape and we identify an area where
we think it exists, but it doesn't
actually exist, we might waste a lot of
time going into the field and and
checking that.
And so, I wanted to ask why do these
large species classifications fail? And
there may be a number of reasons. One
being differences in observation
conditions. There are differences in
atmospheric conditions, sun angle,
viewing geometry. As we mentioned
earlier, we have uh data from two
different time points and so as a result
the observation conditions um are very
likely different between the the two
different years. We have biological
variation. So coming back to that
genotype environment and genotype by
environment interactions because we have
differences in the environment and in
the the genotypes on our landscape and
this results in differences in
physiology, canopy chemicals, phenology,
canopy structure.
And lastly, we have the geographers's
favorite spatial autocorrelation which
follows Tobler's first law of geography
where everything is related to
everything else but near things are more
related than distant things. So when
we're thinking about um species
classifications, this indicates that
models can learn the location or the
local context of a region rather than
generalizable species characteristics.
So in order to test why these large
scale species classific class
classifications failed, we used our um
neon data or neon imaging spectroscopy
data at our different sites. And we
first classified we used um two regional
classifiers to identify where Fremont
cottonwood exists on the landscape at
our sites. And the reason why we use
this method instead of using the the
training data set that I collected in
order to create these classifiers is
that the training data set was spatially
biased to where we could access which
regions where we could access um the
trees and in order to identify them. And
I wanted to create a spatially robust
spectral library. And so in order to
create this map, I went through an
iterative process to get a more
conservative estimate of where these
trees exist on the landscape. And if you
want to read more about that, I'll refer
you to um Cely at all in 2026.
But for now, I'll just uh skip over that
to say that we created the species
classifier and we created a to I to
gather a spectral library of our
cottonwood trees and all the other
species represented on these landscapes.
And so this figure shows the average cot
can cottonwood reflectance at the canopy
level for our Arizona data set which is
in pink and then our Utah Colorado data
set which is in green.
And so in order to look at how these
classifications vary across the
landscape,
I separated the data into uh 70%
training and 30% testing within each
site. And then I trained a classifier on
the data from each site on that 70%
training data set. And then I tested
that classifier across every single site
using the 30% testing data set. And I
did this for every single one of the
sites. And then I looked at how class
how the classification varied across
environmental gradients. So I used a
linear mixed effects regression model
and looked at how the classification
changed across environmental gradients
and I iterated through this a 100 times
and I got um these figures which are
partial dependence plots and you can see
there are a number of environmental
variables that I threw into these models
including geographic distance which gets
out that spatial autocorrelation but
most of these were not very important
and so I want to just focus on winter
precipitation, spring precipitation,
mean annual temperature, and ecoype,
which are our four most important
variables. And so on the on the x- axis
is environmental distance. It's a
standardized environmental distance. And
the y-axis is classification accuracy.
And um uh one of the the major results
that I found was that it's environmental
distance increases, classification
accuracy decreases.
But what's the biological rationale for
these variables in particular? Why were
these variables um the most important
when um determining classification
accuracy across space? So I'll start
with our fourth most important variable
ecotype because the easiest to explain
where we included our Arizona data set
versus our Utah Colorado data set. So we
had differences genetic differences.
There were two different ecotypes but we
also had differences in um the time of
collection. And so we weren't able to
entirely parse apart those u different
sources of variation. And so that that
variable includes both. And then for the
other variables uh we can turn to our
field and common garden studies to help
explain them. So starting with our
seasonal precipitation metrics,
uh it's the the the seasonal
precipitation metrics that we found
being very important for classification
accuracy across the landscape was uh
where the same uh were the same
variables that were predicted to to
determine uh genetic connectivity across
the landscape for Fremont Cottonwood. So
this figure is from Kushment at all in
2014 where they went out and sampled
Fremont on the landscape and they
developed a resistance to gene flow
surface layer which is the figure that
you see and they found that overall
stream conductivity plus seasonal
precipitation were u the the major var
the the best variables for for
developing this resistance to gene flow
layer. And so if our classifications are
capturing genetic differences within
Fremont Cotmwood across space, it makes
sense that our classification accuracies
would be related to the same
environmental factors that structure
gene flow.
So then next we looked at the mean or
mean annual temperature variable and in
order to understand what's going on
here, we referred to some of our common
garden studies. So there were uh three
common gardens that were established
across an a thermal gradient. So up here
in Utah, in southern Utah, we have our
Canyon Lands common garden. It's our
coldest common garden. We have Aquafria
in central Arizona. And then Yuma, which
is our our warmest common garden down in
southern Arizona. And populating these
common gardens were Fremont Kwood from
numerous source populations that spanned
a thermal gradient.
And so at these common gardens, uh,
Cooper at all in 2019 measured
survivorship and they looked at
survivorship versus budset day of year.
And well, we'll talk about uh, phenology
in at the end. I want to focus instead
on the source population temperature. So
the colors of the points and we can see
that overall the trees that had the
highest survivorship were the trees that
um, match the common garden in terms of
their mean annual temperature. So the w
the trees that survived at Yuma, warmest
common garden were the trees that were
from regions with warmer meanial
temperatures and vice versa for canyon
lands. And so uh this work and others
has found that Fremont Cottonwood has
adapted to different thermal regimes.
And so at these common gardens, it has
resulted in higher survivorship for
trees from areas that are more similar
thermally to the common garden. And
while there's a wide body of literature
of ongoing work looking into why this
is, I wanted to highlight a study by
Moran at all that provides a
particularly nice example of genotype by
environment interactions showing that
cottonwood populations differ in their
physiological responses to thermal
stress. So here this figure we have on
the left to model conductance. So how
much water are the are the plant is a
plant pumping through its leaves? And
then we have leaf temperature on the
right. The x-axis is transfer distance.
So the difference in um in mean annual
temperature between the source
population and our common garden. And
here the all the data was collected at
Yuma, our warmest common garden.
And uh the data were collected in May
which is a relatively cool month. The
trees are are relatively happy. and then
in August when it's really warm and the
trees are thermally stressed. And so
what Moran Adall found was that in May
there wasn't a really a relationship
between either stormal conductance or
leaf temperature and transfer distance.
But in August uh when it was nice and
hot there there was a relationship where
trees that were more similar to from
regions that were um more similar
thermally to our yumo garden were had
higher stomatal conductance which
resulted in in lower leaf temperature.
And so from this they concluded that
trees from warmer populations regulate
their leaf temperature via
transpiration. And so here we see a an
example of these genotype by environment
interactions where trees from different
areas are responding to the environment
differently.
And in our classification accuracy, we
found that accuracy declines as mean
annual temperature becomes increasingly
dissimilar from that of the populations
we used to train the classifier. And so
Matt appears to structure mean annual
temperature appears to structure how
well we can distinguish those
populations spectrally. And the same
environmental gradient temperature helps
explain differences in the physiological
responses among populations which then
suggests that the spectral distance
differences that we are detecting may
reflect adaptations to different thermal
regimes.
Okay. So why do landscapes large scale
uh species classifications fail?
We found largely due to biological that
it's largely due to biological variation
of our target species on the landscape.
And we found some evidence for
differences in observation conditions
affecting our our species
classifications. And lastly, we didn't
really find much evidence for spatial
autocorrelation.
So then how can we improve our land our
large scale species classifications
understanding uh what's limiting our are
the the transferability of
classifications across space. And so for
this we turn to again our common garden
experiments where we collected uh leaf
level reflectance data of our of our
trees uh existing at the common gardens.
Um and so here you can see the
reflectance of leaf level reflectance
and the the lines are colored by common
garden. So Yuma is red, Canyon Lands is
blue and Aubra Fria is gray. And so one
of the things that pops out is that we
see that there's a a very obvious
difference in our visible wavelengths um
at Yuma. And then when we visualize
these data in principal component
principal component space, we can see
that Yuma is separating from aua and and
canuly land.and. So we're seeing this
this uh environmental effect in our
spectra regardless of of the source
population and where these trees are
from. And so to kind of dig into this a
little bit more, we wanted to look at
where what uh regions of the spectra are
more heritable. And so we use uh
variance partitioning to look at the
different sources of variation. And I
apologize the the bar is covering up
some of the bottom of the of this graph
in the citation. But um the in this
figure we have our mean reflectance uh
for reference in in the dotted line. We
have heritability which is our solid
black line. And then lastly we have the
different sources of variation um as
different colors. And so here we can see
our the variation coming from our common
garden in purple. And we see a large
effect of common garden in visible in
the visible and the reddish wavelengths.
And then um we have different sources of
variation that rel relate to genotype in
the other colors. Blue is residual but
everything else other than purple and
blue is related to genotype.
And so we can see from here um both in
the heritability line and our variance
partitioning that um heritability is
much lower in the visible wavelengths
but it's a lot higher if we look in the
near infrared and the shortwave
infrared. And so we use this information
then to essentially cut apart the the
electromagnetic spectrum and use
different regions of the spectrum to
test the transferability of our species
classification from Arizona to Utah
Colorado and vice versa. And essentially
we confirmed our hypothesis and that
species classification transferability
was highest when we use the shortwave
infrared. So that region of the spectra
that represents biochemical variables um
and it was most uh conserved across our
our three different common gardens was
also the the region of the spectra that
helped improve the transferability of
our species classifications. And this is
really important when we're considering
the types of remote sensing data that
we're collecting. There are relatively
uh few sensors that collect imaging
spectroscopy data. NEON is one of them.
But a lot of our remote sensing data
comes in the form of uh drones and
satellites that collect data primarily
in the visible in the red edge which is
the most responsive to environment um as
our data showed. And that's great if you
want to track physiological responses or
stress over time. But if you're trying
to do for example species
classifications it's much more
challenging. And that's not to say that
uh multisspectral satellites don't uh
collect data in the shortwave infrared,
but there it's it's relatively
understampled.
Okay. So, putting aside our uh species
classifications now that we have them,
we're then going to use these data to
understand the biological variation of
cottonwoods across the landscape and
then try to predict change and
resilience. So coming back to that idea
of of reflectance spectra as an
integrated measure of the phenotype,
there are a number of different
hypotheses that suggest this. Uh there's
a spectral variation hypothesis which
assumes that vegetation or reflectance
spectra serve as a proxy for taxonomic
information because spectra can capture
variation in leaf chemistry, structure,
and physiology.
And so we we build on those on those
hypotheses to estimate um functional
variation and functional and diversity
across the landscape. And so I use
methods developed by Ozner at all in
2014 where they took the the canopy
reflectance data and they applied a
cayman's clustering and then they used
that uh those clusters as a uh they
termed it spectral species. But
essentially what they did is they
applied the Shannon diversity
calculation and the Bray Curtis
dissimilarity index to estimate alpha
and beta diversity. And when they did
this across uh Peru, they found that
they were able to estimate um alpha and
beta diversity rather well. And so I
adapted these methods and instead of
using them across um uh multiecies
communities, I applied them just to our
cottonwood species to get at or
inspecific variation or within species
variation. And so starting with our our
results from our alpha diver or within
species uh functional variation as
calculated using the Shannon index, we
looked at the inpecific spectral
variation across our environmental
gradients um using a linear mix effects
regression model. And these are our
partial dependence plots. And so again
we tested in numerous environmental
variables but here the most important
variable was maximum temperature. And
what was interesting was that with
maximum temperature the relationship was
not linear. We had um lower intpecific
spectral variation in areas that were
more in more thermally stressful
environments. And so our intpecific
spectral variation peaked at um
intermediate maximum temperatures.
So now when we think about uh what the
future has in store and what's already
happening in the southwest where the
southwest is uh warming rapidly,
what does this mean for cottonwood
trees? Um if we're if we have lower
intpacific spectral variation in areas
that are warmer and these w warmer areas
are becoming more um prevalent. And so I
wanted to to come back to this figure
where we looked at survivorship and
especially where we looked at
survivorship in Yuma, which is our our
hottest common garden. And survivorship
is is highest in populations that are
that are adapted to warmer areas. And
those and according to to our results,
those trees that are more likely to
survive in these future heat waves have
lower intpecific spectral variation
suggesting that future climate change
may select for a narrower narrower range
of phenotypes. So then shifting topics
just a little bit, we then looked at our
between sight spectral variation and so
we use the break Curtis dissimilarity
index to to look at the spectral
dissimilarity between our sites. And so
this is the correlation matrix um where
the yellow represents regions that are
more dissimilar and teal represents
regions that are more similar.
Unsurprisingly our Arizona sites are
fairly dissimilar from our Utah Colorado
sites. And then we used this this uh
similarity matrix and compared it
against um uh environmental distance
matrices across our landscape. And for
this one, we uh added back we added in
that resistance to gene flow surface
layer that we referenced earlier. And we
found that um this resistance to gene
flow was the actually the best predictor
of of our our of our beta spectral
diversity uh dissimilarity. So this
first of all underscores our earlier
hypothesis that um our classification
accurate our classifications were
capturing underlying genetic variation
because spectral beta diversity between
sites was higher where resistance to
gene flow was higher and this suggests
that reduced gene flow is associated
with greater differentiation and
spectral composition among populations.
Interestingly, it also emphasizes the
results found by Kushman at all in that
human modified stream flow and future
drought may have reduced genetic
connectivity between our populations
between our cottonwood populations.
Okay. And then I lastly wanted to uh go
from looking at our within or
intrapecific spectral variation and turn
to a slightly different um ecological
focus which is phenology.
And for this we asked uh does a phen
phenological sensitivity of Fremont
cotwood differ among ecotypes? And so
phenological sensitivity refers to how
responsive a tree is to interanual
variation.
And the the inspiration for this work
came again from those common garden
experiments where Cooper at all in 2022
looked at budet and bud flush across a
common garden. So first they found that
uh buds set and bud flush differed
between the different populations even
with a common garden within even within
a common garden. So we have these
different genotype effects within a
common garden.
But then they also looked at plasticity
of bud set and bud flush. And they found
that overall the trees from warmer
source populations were more plastic,
more responsive to differences in in
common garden temperature and they they
changed their their bud set and bud
flesh the most. And so I wanted to see
how this played out on the landscape
scale and see if we these patterns were
detectable in situ. And not only that,
but what does this mean? Uh when we're
looking across the landscape and we're
looking at these populations, how are
they changing in response to to climate
climate change?
So in order to do so, uh we turn to our
landscape scale species classifications
of Fremont cottonwood that we created
using our NEON data across our sites. We
downscaled these uh data to 30 by 30
meters to match LANCSAT and we collected
25 years of LANCSAT data. This is the
normalized difference vegetation index
which is essentially a measure of
greenness and we looked at greenness uh
over time for each of our our cottonwood
pixels um at all of our sites.
And for every year and every pixel, we
fit a double logistic regression curve
to to look at the change in greenness
over time. So you can see winter and
then spring green up right here or
summertime the NDVI stays relatively
high and then we can see the fall
scinessence at the end. And so we use
this curve to identify the point um at
which uh the 30% of this this amplitude
which is how we defined spring green up.
And so using this, we then looked at um
change uh simp change over time of our
Utah high plateau populations versus our
sonor and desert populations. And we
found that overall the sonor and desert
Fremont cottonwoods accelerated in the
spring greenup in the past 25 years
whereas the Utah high plateau didn't
really change over time.
And now the question is is this uh is
this change related to the fact that um
the sonor and desert ecoype has formed
faster than the Utah and Colorado or is
it a result of um more higher
phenological sensitivity or is it a
combination of the two and so we found
that it's likely a combination of the
two because and I apologize again I
don't know how to make this bottom part
go away but we looked at u minimum
temperature growing degree days total
precipitation
This is uh maximum vapor pressure
deficit. And lastly uh chilling degree
days for the winter and spring uh before
that year. And we found that overall the
snow and desert populations had a
greater phenological sensitivity. They
were more responsive to our inner annual
variation as you can see from the slopes
of the red lines u which represent the
snor desert versus the blue lines. And
then we threw uh this into a model to
just confirm these results. And we found
that the most uh the variable that was
the most important for predicting spring
greenup timing was our our thermal
variable, our brewing degree day. And
not only was it important for predicting
spring greenup timing, but it differed
between the two populations, the slope
was much stronger for a sonor and desert
population. And so next we wanted to
look at what this means for the future.
And so we applied these this model to
two different climate scenarios from
2030 to 2100. Um we have uh less
aggressive warning warming on the left
and more aggressive warming on the
right. And we found that regardless of
the the climate scenario, the spring
greenup timing of Fremont populations,
Fremont cottonwood populations will
continue to diverge over time.
Okay, that was a lot of information and
uh thank you all for for sitting with me
through that and I just wanted to
quickly go through the the overall
conclusions uh to to summarize
everything that that has been discussed
thus far. So landscape scale species
classifications are limited by the
spatial structuring of of tree
phenotypes. And if we use only spectral
phenotype or spectral features conserved
across environmental conditions um this
will improve our our classification
transferability.
Fremont cottonwood intpecific spectral
diversity as a proxy for functional
diversity was lowest in our thermally
stressed stressful environments and our
functional beta spectral diversity was
best explained by resistance to gene
flow surface. Again that integrated uh
seasonal precipitation and uh stream
connectivity and spring greenup timing
of the warm adapted sonor and desert
ecotype was more sensitive to interanual
climate variation. So then what does
this possibly mean for the future? It
the implications are that anthropogenic
activities that disrupt riparian
connectivity alongside climate change,
higher temperature, more drought uh may
constrain the adaptive adaptive capacity
of these populations.
We also found that continued warming is
likely to amplify phenological diver
divergence among Fremont cottonwood
ecotypes with potential cascading
consequences across multiple trophic
levels.
And with that, I'd like to thank
everyone here um on this slide. They
without them, this work would not have
been possible. They were all very
important uh contributors to to all of
the work shown here. I'd also like to
thank Neon for for hosting me and
allowing me to share this research with
you. And then lastly, thank all of you
for for coming and showing up and
listening to this talk. And with that, I
think we have some time for questions.
>> Awesome, Megs. That was great, man.
There's a ton of uh ton of really
interesting research backed in there.
Just a reminder to everybody, please uh
type your questions in the Q&A box.
Looks like there is time for many
questions
and so actually I have uh one question
to kick us all off from Shashi Kunduri.
Uh hey Megs great talk. I have a
question regarding the cottonwood
classification map you showed from Celi
at all 2026 paper. Did you use any
topographic variables for the
classification besides the spectral
signatures?
>> That's a good question. So, I didn't use
topography for these classifications,
but I did use the LAR data collected u
by the NEON AOP to look at uh canopy
height. And so, I removed all vegetation
that was below 2 m so that we didn't
have to include grasses or low shrubs,
but I didn't include elevation or aspect
or anything like that in the
classifications themselves.
>> Okay, great. [clears throat]
I've got one additional question to kick
us off.
The you you were mentioning something
about the the sphere bands tend to show
a lot more information and
discrimination
among the ecotyp ecotype
characteristics of of the cottonwoods.
How well do you think that approach will
apply to other species, other plant
species that perhaps are less studied
kind of across large regional scales?
>> Yeah. Um, so that so I can answer that
by talking a little bit about u my work
in Hawaii. So I'm also doing
classifications in Hawaii to look at
invasive versus native species. And
since uh doing this work on cottonwoods,
I have started testing out um just using
the the swear bands to for our
classifications and I found that overall
it works a lot better. Um for my
dissertation, I mapped out OIa lea
across Big Island and I had there were a
lot of challenges associated with that
since it spans numerous environmental
gradients etc. Um and it's a very
plastic species. But since switching to
using kind of this swore only method, I
found that there have been numerous
advantages. One one is that I see fewer
flight line artifacts. Um so when you
collect uh your imaging spectroscopy
data, right, the plane uh flies in a
line and it and then it can circle back
and then fly in the next line. And so
when you do so uh you have differences
uh sometimes in between uh the different
lines that's a result of or observ
differences in observation conditions.
Um and so sometimes we can we can see
that perpetuated uh through our species
classifications. And I found that when I
use just the swur I see fewer of those
but then I also see less of you know
random species that are considered that
aren't even related to OIa. So, I've
been finding that it works better is
kind of the short story in in my study
system in Hawaii, but I haven't tested
on other species.
>> Cool. Thank you.
Another question from John Mickelson.
How about looking at any soil or
geological parent material gradients?
>> So, I didn't do that for this project.
Um because the Fremont cottonwoods they
exist along riparian corridors and
usually those corridors are really
narrow and so the
the data sets that we often have are
don't quite match in terms of um spatial
resolution in order to capture to
capture that um information. Um,
also the in the riparian corridors, it
tends to be just rather silty and and
it's there's less variation than if we
were to like look more at the highlands.
And yeah, so I I didn't include it um
because for this uh specific study area
just because we were looking at the
those relatively narrow corridors where
they're usually rather silty and um
quite changeable. So
>> great
from San Sharma. Do you find
>> um John John, can we give Claire a
chance? Claire has her hand raised to
ask a question over audio.
>> Oh, absolutely. I'm sorry, Claire. Go
ahead.
>> Yeah, thanks. Hi, Megan. This is a
really interesting work. Thank you. Um
I'm curious, you had in the common
garden experiment uh an estimate of
heritability of reflectance at different
wavelengths and I wondered if you could
just talk in a little bit more detail
about uh how that heritability estimate
was developed.
Um yeah so this is taking me back a
couple years so uh forgive my uh my me
for not remembering everything but we
use variance partitioning to look at the
relative contributions of common garden
versus
a number of of of variables that related
to the genotype because at these common
gardens we had different ecotypes we had
different populations represented um and
then we also had some some clones as
well. And so we put all of that um those
those information and put that th and so
when we v partitioned the variance for
those we we kind of lumped all of those
uh variables and then we separated it
from the environmental the common garden
and the residual and then I don't
remember the exact calculation that we
used actually one of my my collaborators
was kind of the one who who primarily uh
came up with with those formulas. Um
if you want we can refer I can also
refer you to the the paper where we uh
actually have all the methods for that.
But um
it was Celi at all. It was in Oohia was
uh one of the papers but um yeah so
essentially we partitioned the variance
and then we looked at the uh
heritability was a calculation of the
relative influence of our genotypes
versus our common gardens and residuals
was kind of the the bottom line of it
but I I'm sorry I can't tell you the
exact the exact math off the top of my
head.
>> That's great. I'll I'll check out the
paper. Thank you. from Sancha Sharma. Do
you find the geographic distance acts
primarily as a proxy for unmeasured
microclimatic variables or is local
adaptation playing the dominant role?
>> Can you repeat that again? Sorry.
>> Do you find that geographic distance
acts primarily as a proxy for unmeasured
microclimatic variables or is local
adaptation playing the dominant role? So
yes, likely um our geographic distance
is capturing
variables that we that we haven't
measured um and didn't or didn't
include. There are a number of those
including stream flow for example since
we are working with pairing systems. Um
or is it a measure of local adaptation?
I'm sorry. I don't quite understand how
those are entirely different and kind of
what the question is trying to get at
because the we know from our common
garden experiments that there are
different local adaptations of these
species to different regions uh usually
across a thermal gradient.
And we are able to capture that in our
data and we've shown it kind of numerous
times in numerous different ways that
our our remote sensing data is capturing
those different local adaptations.
Yeah, I'm not sure quite sure I answered
that question, but I I don't know if I
quite understand the the question
itself.
>> Okay. Um I'm just going to read out a
comment from Courtney Meyer. Not so
[clears throat] much a question, but it
is fascinating to me how the spectral
data reveal the limitations of the
concepts of species when it comes to
predicting how ecosystems may respond to
change.
>> Oh, thank you. Um yeah, I I think that
I think that like using these remote
sensing data and trying to under and
think of of spectroscopy as a means of
understanding these trees beyond just
you know what we can go on the ground
and measure because we can predict a lot
of those different measurements um uh
using spectroscopy data. There are a
number of papers that have come out in
recent years showing that and I think
that uh as we as we start to accept it
as as a form of understanding biological
variation, it opens up a lot of
different avenues for exploration and
understanding our our landscapes because
it's a much easier to to go and and
capture imaging spectroscopy data than
to measure like the actual, you know,
physiology of of these trees or the
canopy chemicals or all these different
um components and so I'm really excited
about what it kind of holds for the
future and what we can do with it. So,
thank you for the comment.
>> Yeah. And a comment from uh Michelle
Ptorius
or a question. Did you run into
saturation issues? I know tassled cap
parameters for example brightness etc
can saturate at high values. If not an
issue in your area, should this be a
consideration for applying these methods
to other regions?
like saturation for the reflectance
data. No, we didn't. Um yeah, that
wasn't an issue. I've never actually
come across issues with saturation
for data. I will say uh that for all the
data that I present uh we applied a
brightness normalization to all the data
to kind of standardize brightness uh
differences across different sites or as
a result of of different observation
angles and conditions. Um but yeah, no
brightness issues, although that's
probably more on the the technical neon
side as they they had issues with that.
they probably um you guys uh and Ian
probably uh corrected for it and and
fixed it and I know you guys have
rigorous um um calibration u procedures
and standards that that you guys do. But
that's a yeah I I've not personally had
to to encounter that. But I I think that
that's more of the technical side of the
the neiop that I don't always get into.
>> Right.
Okay. Uh question from Sophia Gman. Have
you thought about how image spectroscopy
perhaps only captures the reflectance at
the top of canopy levels? And if imagery
spectroscopy could be used to somehow
look beyond just the top of canopy of
ecosystems.
Can it be used to look beyond the canopy
itself?
>> Like into the understory. Yeah. So I get
this one quite a bit because oftentimes
what we're interested in is the future
of the canopy, right? What's growing
underneath? Is it an invasive species
layer or is it is it native
regeneration? Unfortunately, based on
the nature of the data, we can only look
at that that top canopy layer. We can't
really look underneath. Sometimes we get
u glimpses into the understory if the
the canopy isn't fully closed. Um and
but it's just essentially what the the
sun bounces off of is what we get. This
is where the LAR data can um uh can be
useful because the wavelengths of light
that uh is used in LAR data can
penetrate through the canopy. And so
then we can start to get the structure
of the overstory and the understory. But
then you're just looking at structure
and that has its own complications
because you don't get the full vour
spectra that gives you um chemistry
composition and whatnot. So
unfortunately no we cannot go past the
the canopy layer as much as I would like
to but that is a limitation of the data
set.
>> Okay. Great. Just as a kind of a
addendum to this great presentation and
question answer uh session. This project
was a a neon research support services
project I believe funded by national
science foundation. This is people
probably noticed it was not conducted at
NEON sites. This is an example of a an
external research team applying for
funding and then contracting NEON to
perform data collection for their
specific project. So shout out to the
team that uh put this whole thing
together and it was great working with
you guys. I'm going to uh close out
questions and turn it over to Samantha.
Thank you mix.
>> Thank you.
What a wonderful talk. Thank you so much
for all that thoughtprovoking content
and those interesting environment
genetic interactions. Really excellent.
If folks are interested, our next
science seminar is going to come up um
one month from now in October. I put the
link in the chat, but the talk will be
about from field the lab a full AI
solution for biodiversity for uh a
scientist will be presenting from
Microsoft's AI for good lab. So it
should be interesting. We hope to see
you. And if you'd like to refer back to
this talk, there should be a recording
posted within the week. So, thanks
everyone so much for joining. Thanks,
Maggs again for a great talk and have a
great rest of your day. Bye all.