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Russians are tired of the war and they are not protesting; voluntary recruitment is slowing

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Russia has endured approximately 1.4 million battlefield casualties since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with analysts projecting that monthly losses could average around 30,000 troops by 2026. Despite these staggering human costs and significant attrition in military equipment, particularly within the Black Sea Fleet, Moscow has yet to secure major operational victories during its recent spring and summer offensives. The disparity between Russian and Ukrainian personnel losses is estimated at roughly eight to one, yet this numerical advantage has not translated into decisive territorial gains or strategic breakthroughs, especially in the Donbas region where advances remain painfully slow and costly. Amidst rising casualties and a slowdown in voluntary recruitment, which had previously been bolstered by high pay and tax incentives, Russian authorities are reportedly considering a new wave of mobilization following the State Duma elections. While Vladimir Putin's last partial mobilization in September 2022 aimed to call up 300,000 reservists, the current strategy has increasingly relied on volunteers to fill manpower gaps. However, Western media reports indicate that voluntary enlistment is declining as war fatigue sets in across Russian society. Although polls suggest that a majority of Russians desire peace talks rather than continued hostilities, experts caution that this exhaustion does not necessarily equate to a willingness to protest the Kremlin or accept peace under any conditions. The potential for a new mobilization stems from the leadership's repeated insistence on seizing full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a goal pursued through what analysts describe as a "meat grinder" tactic of throwing massive numbers of men into battle. Experts like Andrew D'Anieri suggest that the Kremlin may view mobilization as a necessary advantage to increase troop levels and finally achieve these stated objectives, despite evidence indicating that sheer numbers alone are unlikely to guarantee a breakthrough on the front lines. This approach reflects a desperate attempt to overcome years of slow progress and high casualties, yet it raises questions about whether such measures can alter the fundamental trajectory of the conflict without addressing deeper strategic and logistical challenges. Ultimately, even if a new mobilization wave occurs, many analysts believe it is unlikely to significantly change the course of the war or lead to a rapid resolution. The combination of enormous losses, economic pressure from strikes on oil infrastructure, and the diminishing pool of willing volunteers creates a precarious situation for Moscow. While the Russian leadership continues to push forward with its territorial ambitions, the reality of sustained high casualties and slowing recruitment suggests that the conflict may become increasingly protracted and costly. The situation highlights a stark contrast between official goals of total regional control and the grim battlefield realities that suggest such objectives are becoming harder to achieve through attrition alone.

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Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million battlefield casualties since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and by 2026, Russian losses will average approximately 30,000 troops per month. Against this backdrop, Moscow may be preparing a new wave of mobilization after the fall State Duma elections, Forbes reports. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as of July 1st, Russia's total battlefield losses amounted to approximately 1.4 million service members. In 2026 alone, analysts estimate that the Russian army will lose approximately 30,000 troops monthly. Moreover, the ratio of losses between Russian and Ukrainian military personnel, according to the center's estimates, is approximately 8 to 1. At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War notes that despite enormous losses, Russia failed to achieve significant operational successes during the spring and summer offensive campaigns of 2026. The losses are not limited to personnel. Russia also lost a significant amount of military equipment and ships from the Black Sea Fleet, and Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure have created additional pressure on the Russian economy. Amid rising losses and problems with military recruitment, Russian authorities may consider a new wave of mobilization. Meduza previously reported that Russian officials are discussing the possibility of holding such a mobilization after the State Duma elections in the fall. The Institute for the Study of War also reported that the Kremlin is considering various options for supporting a potential mobilization. Vladimir Putin last announced a partial mobilization in September 2022. At that time, 300,000 reservists were planned to be called up. Since then, Moscow has primarily sought to fill its military needs with volunteers, >> [music] >> offering them high pay, salaries, and tax breaks. However, according to Western media reports, voluntary recruitment in Russia has slowed down recently. Experts note that Russian society is increasingly tired of the war, but this does not necessarily mean a readiness to protest against the Kremlin. A March poll by the Levada Center showed that 67% of Russians believe peace talks with Ukraine are necessary, while only 24% favored continuing hostilities. At the same time, experts say war fatigue does not automatically mean Russians are ready to demand [music] its end under any conditions. "Russians are generally war-weary and want it to end," said Dr. Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University. "They are well aware that a full-scale war against Ukraine, beginning in 2022, has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War against Nazi [music] Germany. However, this war weariness does not mean that Russians want peace at any price [music] or that they will protest the war." Analysts suggest that additional troops may be deployed primarily to continue the offensive in Donbas. The Russian leadership has repeatedly stated its intention to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the Russian army's advance in this direction remains slow and has resulted in significant losses. According to Andrew D'Anieri, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, "The Kremlin may be counting on mobilization to increase troop levels and ultimately achieve its stated goals." The expert says, "If Putin decides to mobilize, he will do so because he sees it as an advantage on the battlefield. >> [music] >> He has repeatedly stated that Moscow wants to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russian progress in these areas has been extremely slow and extremely costly for several years. So far, they have used a meat grinder tactic, [music] throwing as many men into battle as necessary to try to achieve these goals. Perhaps the Kremlin believes that mobilization will finally help them seize these territories, although evidence from the battlefield suggests this is unlikely. At the same time, experts believe that even a new wave of mobilization is unlikely to significantly change the course of the war, since an increase in the number of troops alone does not guarantee Russia a breakthrough on the front.