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Russian army suffered a major defeat in Donbas; occupiers are effectively surrounded

Duration: 4:35 628 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

Russian armed forces in the Donetsk region have been compelled to retreat from over 200 square kilometers of territory along their primary offensive line, marking a significant strategic setback. This withdrawal includes the loss of a crucial foothold near Lyman, which Moscow had intended to use as a launchpad for attacks against the fortified city belt in Donbas from the north. Multiple independent sources, including analysts from Austin and reports from Rochan Consulting and the American Institute for the Study of War, have confirmed these losses. Following four months of continuous offensive operations and several mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces successfully liberated Novoy, reached Kalynivske by mid-August, and subsequently launched a new assault between Katerynivka and Novomykhailivka. These coordinated actions effectively severed the supply lines to advancing Russian units, resulting in the complete erasure of Moscow's territorial gains achieved since early March. The Ukrainian operation has not only halted the northern advance but also disrupted Russian attempts to encircle the fortified cities from the south by penetrating deep into the rear areas of Russian troop groups operating near Lyman. Military expert Valeriy Shiryaev describes this situation as a tight operational encirclement where Russian fighters remain stationed in numerous settlements within the Shandryholove area, now relying solely on air supply due to their cut-off status. The Ukrainian advance was methodical, moving village by village into the gray zone where Russian troops previously felt secure, thereby thwarting Moscow's plans to isolate the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. This tactical success has forced the Russian command to withdraw reserves from other sectors within the Zapad Group's area of responsibility, creating defensive gaps that enemy forces are expected to exploit further. The current crisis near Lyman mirrors the disastrous events in the Kupiansk sector, where similar systemic issues regarding inaccurate reporting and unprepared assaults led to severe losses for Russian forces. Just as Commander Kuzovlev initially reported successes in Kupiansk before receiving the title Hero of Russia, only to face a complete reversal that was later acknowledged by political leadership, the situation near Lyman is now unfolding with even greater severity than previously experienced. While military analysts caution against declaring an immediate turning point on the front, there is broad agreement that Ukrainian counteroffensives will significantly delay Russian operations in northern Donbas. This reality stands in stark contrast to expectations from Kremlin-aligned sources, which claim President Vladimir Putin anticipates the complete seizure of the Donetsk region within six months, a timeline that has already been pushed back at least fifteen times since the war began. As the disastrous summer for the Russian army concludes, autumn is beginning with a major scandal surrounding Sviatohirsk, where Moscow failed to capture the city and instead faced a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive that liberated critical territory. Although military analyst Jan Matveev characterizes this crisis as primarily local in nature rather than a total collapse, he insists it remains a serious problem that cannot be denied. Despite the scale of these setbacks, prospects for Ukrainian troops continue to open up along the entire Slavic front, suggesting a shift in momentum that challenges Moscow's strategic objectives. The combination of territorial losses, supply disruptions, and the inability to achieve encirclement goals indicates that the Russian military is struggling to maintain its offensive posture, forcing a reevaluation of their operational plans in the region.

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Russian armed forces in Ukraine were forced to abandon more than 200 square kilometers of territory along the main offensive line in the Donetsk region, losing a key foothold near Lyman, from which they planned to attack the Donbas belt of fortress cities from the north. This was reported by Austin analyst Clement Mullen and later confirmed by Rochan Consulting and the American Institute for the study of war. Following a 4-month offensive and several mechanized assaults, the Ukrainian armed forces successfully liberated Novoy, reached Kalynivske by mid-August, and then launched another assault between Katerynivka and Novomykhailivka, effectively cutting off the advancing Russian force. As a result, the Russian army lost 240 square kilometers and failed to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north, estimates Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting. The Ukrainian operation has resulted in the complete erasure of Russia's territorial gains since early March, ISW reports. In addition to the northern direction, Russian troops are attempting to encircle the belt of fortified cities from [music] the south. Ukrainian forces managed to break through a very old defensive line, effectively penetrating deep into the rear of the Russian troop group operating in Lyman, notes military expert Valeriy Shiryaev. Russian troops in this zone found themselves effectively encircled, he believes. This is largely an operational encirclement, but a tight one. Russian fighters are still stationed in many settlements in the Shandryholove area, and they are supplied only by air. We can confirm the Russian army's retreat, Shiryaev continues. The Ukrainian armed forces advance was gradual, with village after village moving into the gray zone where Russian troops had previously felt confident. By cutting off the salient at Lyman, Ukrainian forces thwarted the Russian command's plans to encircle the fortress cities, ISW writes. Z channels acknowledge a worsening tactical situation near Lyman. Rybar attributes this to systemic lies and reports to the higher-ups and consequently an inaccurate assessment of the situation. Based on the experience of the Kupiansk sector, where similar problems were resolved through unprepared assaults, this will lead to further losses. The withdrawal of reserves from other areas of the Zapad Group's area of responsibility to cover the gaps near Lyman will create gaps in the defense that the enemy will inevitably exploit, the channel writes. Shiriyev believes that the story of Kupiansk is essentially repeating itself now in exactly the same way. The same commander of the Zapad Group, Kuzovlev, reported on successes in Kupiansk, after which he even received the title Hero of Russia. Then everything turned around and the command and senior political leadership have already announced this to the entire world. Now things are much worse than they were in Kupiansk. Military analysts agree, however, that it's premature to talk about a turning point on the front. However, a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will delay the offensive on northern Donbas, Mullan notes, and Shiriyev agrees. Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin claim that Vladimir Putin expects the military to completely seize the Donetsk region within the next 6 months. The Kremlin had previously set the end of the year as the deadline and since the beginning of the war, Putin has pushed back deadlines on Donbas at least 15 [music] times, ISW reported. The disastrous summer for the Russian army has ended >> [music] >> and autumn is beginning with a huge scandal surrounding Sviatohirsk, military analyst Jan Matveev notes. Instead of capturing the city, Putin received a large-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, liberating critical territory. For Russian troops, this crisis is more of a local one, but it's still a crisis. It would be foolish to deny it. [music] Meanwhile, important prospects are opening up for Ukrainian troops along the entire Slavic front, Matveev believes. >> [music]