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Russia is afraid to send submarines to sea: Kalibr missiles are launched from Novorossiysk

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The Russian Black Sea Fleet faces significant operational challenges as its remaining submarines are kept in a semi-submerged state within Novorossiysk harbor rather than patrolling the open sea. Ukrainian Navy press secretary Dmitro Pleenchuk revealed that these vessels, including Project 636 Varshavyanka and Project 877V Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, remain camouflaged with only their bridges above water to avoid detection by Ukrainian armed forces. This defensive posture stems from a critical assessment that the risk of collision with Ukrainian drones or other weapons at sea is now considered more dangerous than the threat of an unplanned missile launch directly from the base itself. The decision to keep these submarines hidden was heavily influenced by recent attacks using Kalibr cruise missiles launched directly from Novorossiysk, which Pleenchuk noted occurred multiple times in August and last month. These strikes demonstrated that the Russian base is a viable target for long-range precision weapons, forcing the fleet into a virtual survival mode where they cannot safely execute their intended missions. Consequently, the enemy has become hesitant to deploy these assets for active patrol duties, as the probability of being hit while submerged or operating near the coast outweighs the strategic benefits of launching sea-based cruise missiles from this location. Beyond the submarine crisis, civilian shipping in the Black Sea remains severely disrupted due to Russia's blockade and ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, particularly affecting the ports of Greater Odessa. Pleenchuk explained that the Ukrainian military is actively working to counter these threats, noting that while crisis situations in the waters are not unprecedented given previous events during the full-scale invasion, they require continuous adaptation. In response to evolving Russian tactics, such as the mid-July shift toward using jet-propelled loitering munitions like the Banderol and Shahid 238 drones, Ukrainian forces are deploying air, naval, and army aviation assets in the Odessa region to neutralize these attacks and protect commercial vessels. Despite the current difficulties, Pleenchuk expressed confidence that the Ukrainian military will find solutions to mitigate the consequences of this ongoing crisis in the Black Sea. He emphasized that the Navy has successfully navigated similar situations before and is committed to restoring safety for civilian shipping while continuing to pressure Russian forces. As the conflict evolves, both sides are adjusting their strategies; Russia maintains its blockade and harbor-based missile capabilities, while Ukraine focuses on air superiority and drone defense to reopen the sea corridor and ensure the survival of its remaining naval assets.
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The submarines of the Russian Black Sea fleet that remain in service are in Navaras, semi-submerged and camouflaged to protect themselves from potential Ukrainian armed forces strikes. Ukrainian Navy press secretary Dmitri Pleenchuk announced this during a teleathon broadcast. According to him, the enemy used caliber missiles once in August launched directly from Navarasi's harbor, which poses a significant risk to the Russians themselves. Last month, there were three such attacks, but all of them also took place directly from the base. That is, the risk of colliding with Ukrainian drones or other weapons at sea is assessed as more dangerous than the possibility of an unplanned missile launch at the base, Pleenchuk said. [music] He added that the submarines that Russia previously used to patrol the area also currently not at sea. The Russian Black Sea fleet currently maintains at least two project 636 variass submarines which carry caliber sea launched cruise missiles as well as the project 877V Alrosa diesel electric submarine peltus. The two vari submarines that remain in service are currently operating in a virtual survival mode. They are semi-submerged. This means only the bridge remains above water and they are therefore camouflaged as the risk of being hit still exists. The enemy is hesitant to use them for their intended purpose at this time. Pleenchuk emphasized as reported civilian shipping in the Black Sea is currently blocked by Russia with navigation impossible particularly from the ports of greater Odessa. Ukrainian Navy press secretary Dimmitro Pleenchuk explained that the sea corridor has been suspended due to enemy attacks on port infrastructure and commercial civilian vessels traveling to and from ports. He added that the Ukrainian military will work on countering Russia in the Black Sea, noting that crisis situations in the waters had occurred earlier during the war. In the Odessa region, you can see and hear Ukrainian aviation operating, the air force, naval aviation, and army aviation as well. At some point around mid July, the Russians changed their drone tactics. They began periodically using loitering munitions like the Banderol or Shahid 238 drones powered by jet propulsion. Of course, we are doing everything in our power to neutralize these attacks as much as possible, Pleenchuk emphasized. He emphasized that the Ukrainian military will continue to work on countering Russia in the Black Sea, noting that crisis situations in the waters have been observed previously during a full-scale invasion. Unfortunately, this isn't the first or even the second such situation. The Navy has found solutions to similar situations in its time. Now, of course, we're working to mitigate the consequences in this situation as well, and I'm confident we'll find a solution," Fleet and Chuck said.