RobArt Called the $126K Top — Bottom's Still Not In | 20 Hours to $200K

And we're back. And look at that. Just like that, Rob Art is with us. Rob, how you doing today? >> Hey there, Rob. I'm great. Thank you very much. All is well. How are you? >> I mean, we just thought about this, but yeah, we're doing good. Uh, unfortunately, Rob Art is, uh, he's calling in from Dubai from >> and it's 40 degrees Celsius. Hopefully, he's got his air conditioning unit on. But, uh, this will be good. This will be good. And, and if you if you're not following Rob, I'll put a link in the description. You can check this out. Here he is. This is how I found my ex. I found Rob because he was giving contrarian views as to the fact that there was not going to be a super cycle and perhaps it might be not a bad idea to maybe take some profits. And I looked at that and I'm like that does make a lot of sense. And then as time has gone on, Rob, you've been the same person every for as long as it's been over four years now. And also you've done some pretty good things as far as like telling people to wait and telling to accumulate and now here we are in the bare market going into potentially a bull market. What do you see? What's your thought process? >> Uh thank you for having me on Rob. You know it's a pleasure to be here. U yeah in regards to basically crypto what's going on. So the way I look at uh crypto is like I play market cycles right. I'm not a utility guy. I don't believe in utility. like I believe it's good to have coins that are utility driven to have basically communities uh having big communities back those coins but like I don't believe basically in utility in the sense that I don't believe like nothing is being used in a meaningful way right so uh the way I just look at math so we know that with every single passing cycle and you know uh I think of it more as like a macro market cycle not necessarily four years cycle right it's just it can be three and a half years it can be four and a half years it can be four years or roughly four years maybe it will be five or seven years in the future, right? So, uh the way I look at it is very simple. So, we know that with every single market cycle, the ROI is becoming smaller for Bitcoin and generally most old at least blue chips. Uh and we also know that the crash crashes are diminishing, right? >> So, we know that Bitcoin's crashes, they become smaller by roughly 10% every single market cycle. So at first like I'm going to like round up the numbers here like uh so at first it was roughly 95% then 85% then 75% well last time was 77% but I'm rounding right and then so this time it would make sense for the crash to be 65%. Roughly it can be 67 68 62 so far it's been 55%. But since you know crashes are diminishing the way I look at it there's such thing as an accumulation phase for me right like once again I don't believe in bare markets I I use like you know the terms so the people understand what I'm referring to but for me bare market is basically accumulation phase so for me the accumulation phase for bitcoin is once it crashed 50% to 65% this market cycle right so we're in there we're in there I start accumulating like uh I'm 50% in the market so like I've deployed 50% of my accumulation budget in crypto uh Now I'll be deploying another 10%. So I'll be 60% in the market and then with the remaining 40% I'll be waiting to see what happens in Q4 whether or not we get the remaining 10% which would take Bitcoin to that roughly 65% crash to see the bottom. So you know it's not something of course that needs to happen but this has happened every single time since like 2010 right so was in 2010 I mean like for for the past 14 years for sure for for it has happened every single time. So this time if it does not happen and we do not get a roughly 65% crash and 55% crash was indeed the bottom then it's an exception to the rule. It's a deviation from the norm and that'll be something new right. >> Yeah >> for sure. I also believe basically it's very important to stick more or less to percentages uh and rough time frames and therefore like you know I always say don't try to catch the bottom and sell the top simply buy low sell high and then preferably if you get the chance buy lower sell higher right so I think >> what buy low and sell high I've heard of that sounds familiar but I mean that's that's something you should be doing okay keep going >> yeah and so like uh I know that a lot of people are very excited about like you know catching this up bottom sound exact top but like nobody including me has ever been able to do that consistently. So this like nice fairy tale that we all like all like to hear right and uh but it's never happened in the past so I don't believe it's going to happen in the future. Like if that was the case someone like you know like me or you or someone else that'd be right now on the cover of Forbes you know that have 20 billion dollars you know [laughter] it doesn't happen. So like uh I like to keep it realistic and I like to tell people right just like always wait for major crashes. Once the major crashes are here, just start buying. Start dollar cost averaging at new lows, preferably with equal amounts of money if you can. I know some people like are unable to do that, but you know, okay, just cast dollar cost average at new lows. Uh, ignore the crashes. Don't get scared. Diversify. Uh, don't put all your money into any one coin. Have at least like five coins in your portfolio. Wait, you know, sit tight and then wait for the market to recover. And when we're several years into the market cycle, regardless of where the price is, just sell, right? So for the whatever the market gives you, that's pretty much [laughter] >> that was that's a great thesis and pretty run through. Let's break it down because like like the big thing was it was about taking profits and percentages and bare markets. So, when you're taking a look at it, what kind of like I'll be honest with you, Rob, I took a look at these uh it was uh uh glass node and it was all these different indicators and you take a look at the pull multiple pi cycle top, you take a look at the Bitcoin rainbow chart, yaba daba duda, whatever it was was out there, right? And it was like and they never seem to hit these indicators. However, I do remember seeing some posts from you going, "Hey, you know what? This might be like the top or this might be close to the top. you should. But it wasn't like perfect because no one's perfect. But you were talking a lot about I sp I remember October and November it was like hey >> I think this might be a good time to really get the heck out. So how'd you do that? >> So uh primarily the first way I did it. So it all started again with percentages. Right. So I I like the penultimate cycle crashed roughly 85%. So it made sense that we're going to crash roughly 75%. Right. >> Right. So I was saying let's see if the bottom comes in at 75%. If that happens uh that means we can start talking about the top. So what happened? Bitcoin crashed 77%. So pretty much did what was supposed to do. >> So once that happened I simply just looked at the diminishing crashes the percentages between the diminishing crashes used the roughly fouryear cycle theory and it just happened to come in at roughly $126,000 Bitcoin in October 2025. That's where we topped. Right. My point wasn't that we're going to top there exactly. it could be 130, 120, 115 and roughly in October, right? Um, so that's pretty much how I was able to do that, right? In addition to that, you have uh several things I was looking out out for. So stocks rampaging, uh, indexes hitting new highs, uh, metals uh, basically going like ballistic, you know, just skyrocketing, uh, Ethereum uh, failing to breach uh, its all-time high and failing. That was a big red flag for me because it's the number one altcoin out there with the biggest market cap, right? >> And when you know that back in the future whenever Ethereum broke it all and started pumping, many other coins joined, right? Or like uh some coins woke up that did nothing before that. But the fact that Ethereum was doing nothing was a red flag since we're roughly four years into the cycle and uh Bitcoin had already made several consecutive all-time highs, right? Uh so that was like a big red flag for me to get out. Uh and unfortunately I did not make the profits that I wanted to make. Uh I was looking for something much better but you know once again I sucked it up. I took the profits that the market gave me and I got out with 90%. The reason why I got got out with 90% is because the portfolio was in profit but the other 10% was and basically excuse my French coins right so there was no point really uh selling that 10% uh because you know they're very volatile. Like some of them did well some of them did not do well. So there was no point uh selling it. Uh and I always say for example if you're gonna my rule is if you're going to basically play around with these small caps right and even I would say midcaps don't use more than 10% of your portfolio. So for me this cycle I'm using like 50% in Bitcoin. The other 40% will be basically in between XRP, Ethereum and maybe a few other blue chips. And the other 10% I will once again see whether or not I will use that to buy some midcaps and uh yeah low caps. We'll see. >> Great. So let's break it down even further. So like when you talked about this and it was it was good points when we talk about crashes and we talk about the things actually reducing we can see for this was uh 2013 to 2015. I wasn't around during this time, but I wish I was because >> I would have sold early, too. But, you know, from highs to lows, I mean, you went from, you know, a couple hundred bucks, $10 somewhere around there to 10,127 November 2013. And then within about a year or so, you had an 85% drop. And then for the next one, 2017, 2018, this is where I got in. Rob, when did you get into the markets? Anyhow, >> so I've been in crypto since 2016, right? and but I haven't like it wasn't something I was doing full-time and I went full-time back basically in 2018 I would say right so basically when the crashes started happening like I was watching the market and seeing if I can predict it correctly because before that I was in penny stocks right I was in penny stocks stocks but many penny stocks so I could see I was uh trying to see whether or not I can guess the top I started sharing it publicly then it turned out that I'm guessing the top correctly so I guessed that right then I was like let's see if I can predict the crashes, right? So, I predicted the crashes correctly. And so, in 2018, I started making videos talking about it, talking about my expectations. And then another market cycle worked out, right? So, I was like, [laughter] okay, looks like uh I can do this, you know? Looks like I'm pretty good. So, I kind of stuck to it and I've been full-time crypto since then. Yeah. >> Awesome. Here's what I'm going to do. So, like we on on my website, there's this tool we use. It's called Price Profits. And I've got the most ridiculous and you know that Rob, we know this, right? Price pro I mean price predictions are worthless. They're not great, you know, and you get like the most ridiculous stuff out there. And we can take a look here. Like my favorite Samson Mau 1 million in 2026 >> and then Ralph Powell who unfortunately uh I have a wall of shame and uh he is on it. So nothing against Ral, a very smart guy, very nice guy, just a horrible price predictions. Anyhow, what what I got to do is I'm gonna add you in >> and uh that would be great. So, let's do this. >> This is and this is what I'm going to talk about on NFA Live. >> Uh when it's it's me, Guy, and Ben. We're going to talk about the four-year cycles. Are they broke? Do we still have a negative trajectory into Q4? That could be October 6. That could be in November. That could be December. And then, do we start to take off from there? So, how do you see it right now? Did we bottom on July 1st 2026 or do you see it differently? >> So uh right now for example one of the things we're talking about on my Patreon right is uh exactly why I'm 30 50% in the market and I'll be deploying another 10%. Right. So I always say uh don't listen to what the people say exactly look at what they're doing with their portfolio. Right. Right. >> Right. >> It's 5050. Right. Right now I'm not sure. I'm not sure. So, uh, there's this bottoming structure that has worked twice in the past and it just worked out again. So, in accordance with this bottoming structure that worked out in the previous two cycles, the bottom is in, right? >> Okay. >> But again, the only factor that's missing for me is the percentages. And I know that's the only thing that has been very consistent, right? So if you of of course if you have to ask me and I have to give you a reply I will say that the bottom is still not in and uh if Q4 comes and goes and there's no 65% crash the bottom is in. That's how I I will go with >> uh that's reasonable. That's reasonable. I So I'm the same thing. I have been uh I've been accumulating for six months now or so and what I've been trying to do is just as the price goes down I accumulate more. as the price goes up, I accumulate less. And I think that if I was so hard, staunch and say, "Okay, the four-year cycles have to be in because it's always the same way. October six, I'm gonna sell my kidney and I'm going to put everything in to Bitcoin. I only need one kidney for for Pete's sakes. I don't need two." So, I do that, right? And if I wait, what if I'm wrong? What if this time is different? Which is the most the, you know, damaging type of phrase you can say. But I can hedge my bet just like I think you're doing. You said 50% in 50% out. You probably accumulated a little bit but not being you know ballsy. >> We do something like that. What if it does go down? What if Trump sends out some tweet and says, "Hey, guess what? >> It's US versus China, World War II." >> One thing I want to say, Rob, is like basically if we look at a lot of like classic TA like all the technicals, right? Right. >> They are screaming that the bottom is in, right? So is the structure basically, right? I want to refer to like it is screaming that the bottom is in. But there's one thing I learned in crypto that literally all these uh like it's not applicable really with crypto right technical analysis it's not really applicable because it's always eventually wrong right and the only thing like I said the only thing and I I mean I do this from dust till dawn I like uh every single day you know I've been staring at the Bitcoin chart I know for like the past decade every single day practically it's like the only thing that's been consistent is the diminishing crashes and if we round them up it's roughly 10% less every single time. So let's see if this time once again I'm right it should be roughly 65% where the bottom should come in right and this is the thing also you know um people that believe in a four-year cycle right uh I keep saying that I believe in a roughly fouryear cycle not the four year cycle roughly four year cycle and it will keep working until it doesn't right eventually it will stop working like everything else like every single pattern everything stops working right >> but uh I do believe in it uh because it has been working very well so far it has helped uh to guess tops and bottoms well or accumulate properly. And so once again, if we are to use the roughly four-year cycle, somewhere in roughly Q4 or Q1 at the latest next year, we should see Bitcoin crash 65% from its all-time high of $126,000. Right? And if that happens, that would tell me that that is the bottom, right? That would definitely tell me like then I could come on come on here and say the bottom is [laughter] right now. I can't say it because the crash is not there but I can definitely say that with crash roughly 55% definitely good time to be 50% in the market accumulate and sit in your hands and then see what happens next [clears throat] >> and you know I would like to say there is no perfection in crypto definitely at least like perfection is a lie good enough is good enough that that's the way I look at it >> good enough is good well perfection is attainable if you make enough price predictions on X and there's a lot of people out there like you know what I do this and this this so yeah and you know what to to to speak to the last point which was you said I'm 50/50 in could be could be 65% something like that but as a reminder the last cycle when we went through in 2022 I mean we we bottomed out in November 2022 but we were there in that I mean we we're not going to hit the absolute lows 15,719 whatever it was and we're not going to sell out the absolute highs 125,000 October 6 but if we get pretty damn close and as I remember in 2022 going into December January February you had a lot of time to accumulate. Just like we had a lot of time to accumulate that 60k time frame and I think I think even if we missed it, we can still have time to accumulate. There's going to be dips. I think this is the time though to really start deploying a little bit of capital. >> Yeah. And and I think you know uh absolutely I fully agree with you and I and I also would like to add like it's okay to buy later on in the cycle. It's okay to buy even in a year, right? As long as you're realistic, you have realistic expectations in terms of ROI and price targets, right? So if you're going to be buying let's say uh once Bitcoin has breached 100K again and you expect something to like 300K I don't think it's happen in this market cycle. I don't believe in that. Right? So uh but if you're buying let's say at 100K and you're planning to take profits at like 150K and 180K that's fine you know that's fine. And uh so as long as people are realistic uh it's okay. And I also like to point out, you know, I've tweeted this several times uh on Twitter talking about why basically we don't need perfection, we just need to buy low. Like, you know, back in the day, for example, I remember when I was first buying Bitcoin, uh like heavily buying Bitcoin. I mean, Bitcoin crashed >> in and hold Rob real quick. In 2016, this is right when you're talking about, right? >> No, no, no. Not in 2016. I'm talking about buying heavily when I started buying heavily. This was back in uh 2018, 2019, something like that. >> When it was like $3,000, $5,000. Okay, keep going. This is nice. >> So, it crashed from 20K and I started buying like at 6K approximately approximately 6K. I started buying and I started saying so we use the same method dollar cost average new lows, right? Roughly equal amounts of money. So, >> was 6K a good buy longterm? Yeah, it was. It went to 126K and in that cycle went to 69K, you know. So, like 12 12 did like 10x roughly. Uh and >> uh but it did crash to $3,600, right? Yeah, I did. >> So, let's say if you bought like a 70K or something, you were down 50%. So, that's the thing about crypto, right? You you were down 50%. You'd be upset if you didn't have dry powder to buy more, but you wouldn't be upset if you had gone in with like 50% >> and then use another 50% to dollar cost average and bring down your general average, right? >> Yeah. >> This is it. This is and this is the thing like like you're always talking about. And again, if you're, you know, looking, you say like, well, that sounds pretty good. I can get behind that. I linked this in the description. You can follow Rob on X and he's got a lot of and it's also entertaining. This is like I I like to follow people who are entertaining and also have something to say and aren't paring everybody which is like okay you got to buy Bitcoin. You got to hold forever. You got to diamond hands bro. And that's the only way to do it. We're not me and Rob are not Michael Sail. Me and Rob are not Samson Mau. Me and Rob are not Tom Lee. We are just guys who like would like to gain a little bit, take care of our families, and just live a normal life. That's that's all we're asking for. >> Absolutely. Absolutely. I fully agree with you, Rob. What's your take by the way? Uh if you can give me like just a quick breakdown, can I please ask what you're thinking? Like what do you expect to happen? >> So, what I'm doing is besides following you and Ivan and a bunch of different other people is what I'm is I'm doing this, I'm using Ben's website and I'm stealing all his information from into the cryptoverse. [laughter] And and what I do is like it's very simple thing. I dynamically DCA and we talked about this many a time in the show. As the price starts to go up, the uh risk levels go up. So I decrease my buys. I buy every Monday on Cash App. The reason why I do that is because the recurring buys the spread is low and the fees are non-existent. And they set that up in a certain way because if you do that, then they want you to come back and you know, uh Jack Dorsey is really big into that. So if you do it one time, they kill you in the fees and the spread. That's no good. On Monday, this this hits at 6:30. I wake up every day at 4:30, walk my sweet dog, and uh I take a look at, okay, what's what's what's the risk levels? Bam, we're at 0.2. Okay, I start at 0.49999, right? Let's say I I spend 100 bucks. If it goes to 0.3999, I got to double up in 200. If it goes to 0.2999, I got to double up. Now I'm at 400. If it goes to 0.1 and so on and so forth, I'm doubling down. >> This last like 60k levels when we've been in like the 0.2s twos a little bit 0.3s it sometimes my bank my bank actually did contact me and says sir there's a lot of cash app transaction you shut your mouth I'm just buying bitcoin [laughter] so that's what I'm doing but I I I I believe like you that we are due for another pullback in Q4 but again I'm biased you have to understand I want that to happen >> but if it doesn't happen I'm okay because I'll still buy just not as But if we do see a pullback, I will have to again sell this worthless kidney and start. [laughter] >> Yeah, sounds [clears throat] good. Sounds good, Rob. >> So, so before we take off, two questions for you. First of all, I know you're in Dubai. You got your family over there. Any uh animals, any cats, dogs, anything like that? I know it's hot as hell over there. I don't know. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We We have a little dog, a Yorkie named >> The Yorks. >> Yeah. Yeah. We have little dog. >> Okay. First of all, who bought that? Was that you or your wife? And >> No, that was me. >> Okay, so these Yorks I I got a friend is the same same one, right? Loves this Yorkie. And you know what? It's like Velcro. It follows you everywhere. It's always happening when you're there. And guess what? Never rug pulls you. I mean, [laughter] as long as I've been. So, okay. So, the first question. So, Rob's got a dog. I got a dog. Ivan we just we just had on. He's got two golden retrievers. And then as a little reminder everybody, so if you guys, you know, could like I said before, you don't have to get the bank, but uh everybody who's watching again, we're going to probably do at least I always do 10 to 20k, you know, uh views. Everybody can whip out 20 40 bucks in crypto. There's a link in the description. You can scan it right there. Or you can go over here and donate Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Salon, XRP, Cardano. I know you don't want that anyhow. And then he got then he got stables in USDC and we can take those in and we can go there. We just need again 200k in 20 hours so we can rebuild the actual animal shelter. And I'll be uh updating video on that as I'm we're fabricating the uh containers and laying down the land and putting in pipes and all that stuff. So if you guys could that'd be great. Rob, >> absolutely. Yeah. Guys, please donate, you know. Uh and I'm going to donate, too. Uh how much did I donate? How much could you donate? You You're a baller, so you you you donate big money, Rob. But if you need Well, you're in Dubai, so you know, but if you need someone like tax form, just let me know and I'll I'll fill it out. But also to have you back on sometime just to do some follow-ups. I'd love to have you on. I really like your stuff. This would be great. >> Likewise, Rob. Thank you very much for having me on. And yeah, please guys donate. I'm going to share this, too. And uh it's a noble thing that you're doing. You know, I love dogs. I love pets, you know. So, cheers, Rob. Well done. >> Dogs the best. All right, Rob. We'll talk soon everybody. >> That's it for this one. >> See you, man. So, I gotta tell you, Rob is an entertaining guy. Links in the description. Go check him out. It's a weird thing because like when you see somebody who's like take profits, you're like, "What the hell is that?" That's weird. We do we do we do that? Diamond hands, bro. But, uh I think he was one of the first that I saw and I was like, "Huh?" Goes kind of against [music] the things that we've been talking about. Anyhow, that will conclude that for Rob Art. Now, as we come through, we actually have our next guest coming in, Matt Crosby, Looking at Bitcoin. He is the head analyst over Look into Bitcoin. I'd like to see what he has to say about four-year cycles [music] and the potential gap and uh potential pullback coming into Q4 or not.