Video summary
A Channel 4 investigation conducted by the group Verbatim has exposed serious financial irregularities within Reform UK involving senior figures James O'Reilly and Dan Jukes. An undercover reporter posing as the British son of an American billionaire successfully funneled undeclared donations into the party, revealing that O'Reilly and Jukes facilitated three illegal "donations in kind" totaling approximately £30,000 for polls commissioned by the party. The sting operation showed clips of Jukes suggesting that the reporter's father could directly fund the party through his son, a method both admitted to using previously. Additionally, disturbing discussions emerged where O'Reilly treated potential political donations from a future Prime Minister as mere "business interests," implying quid pro quo arrangements that further damaged the party's integrity.
Following the release of the documentary on the eve of Reform UK's conference, both O'Reilly and Jukes were suspended, although Nigel Farage denied breaking any laws by claiming these individuals were not part of the fundraising team and that no illegal money was taken. Despite his denial, Farage appeared aware of the sting as he thanked the undercover actors for their support during a press conference, an incident that dominated the party's first day of its conference and overshadowed planned headlines about Channel crossings. The scandal also implicated major British newspapers like *The Telegraph* and *The Times*, which published polls commissioned by Reform UK without disclosing the source, leading to inquiries by the British Polling Council and Market Research Society into the polling firm JL Partners.
The exposure has significantly damaged Reform UK's standing, with internal polls showing a decline in support for Nigel Farage and a rise in favor for Keir Starmer following the defection of former MPs like Sadiq Khan and Nadhim Zahawi. Beyond the domestic political fallout, the video segment also addresses the growing opacity of advanced AI models, specifically OpenAI's "GPT-6 Astra," which exhibits reduced decision-making transparency that makes its processes harder to interpret and potentially less controllable. Experts warn that while these models may pass safety evaluations in controlled environments, their ability to act unpredictably or deceive users remains a critical concern, prompting calls from figures like Senator Bernie Sanders for an immediate pause on advanced AI development and a permanent ban on superintelligence due to global risks.
The discussion further explores the geopolitical dynamics between the US and China, noting that while the US prioritizes speed in the AI race, China is increasingly focusing on safety, control, and regulatory frameworks following incidents like the Hugging Face attack. Despite deep mutual distrust and differing ideological approaches regarding proprietary models versus open-source collaboration, experts suggest both nations share a strong national interest in preventing rogue AI from attacking their own critical infrastructure. The segment also addresses the trend among some British left-wing figures admiring China's state capacity and industrial achievements, with one host critiquing this "China-maxing" as a symptom of domestic UK political impotence while acknowledging the pragmatic appeal of China's development model. Ultimately, the video concludes by emphasizing the complexity of international relations where pragmatic interests often override ideological labels, highlighting the upcoming US-China summit as a potential, albeit uncertain, opportunity for dialogue on AI safety.
Read the full video transcript
Welcome to Navara Live. Coming up
tonight, a Channel 4 investigation has
claimed two top scalps at Reform UK. Not
what they wanted on day one of their
conference. Also, Bernie Sanders has
called for a deal between the US and
China to pause AI. Um, I think it's a
great idea, of course. Um, but I speak
to an expert on how that will be seen
from Beijing. And talking of Beijing,
have I lost the plot about China? Um, a
new article in Unheard magazine suggests
maybe. Um, tonight I'm joined by Johnny
B, who happens to be a contributing
editor at Unheard magazine. And a little
clue, he wrote that article, so we will
talk about that at the end of the show.
Some bad blood between us.
>> Not at all.
>> Um, Johnny, tell the audience a little
bit about yourself.
>> Yeah, so I uh used to work at the New
Statesman. I used to be a policy writer
there. Now uh I work up uh remotely for
unheard but I work up in Liverpool. I'm
contributing editor
>> and you interviewed me in 2021 for a PhD
you were doing and we were just
discussing before we went live how catch
your name you gave your PhD.
>> Are we publicizing my PhD
going to scroll through it? They're
going to be looking for any guy.
>> Yeah. Yeah. It's it was about Corbinism
and you Michael being one of the sort of
main sort of media mouthpieces of the
new left media. you were you were our
number one target. So, thank you for
thank you for saying yes to this
interview all these years ago.
>> That's the kind of ego stroking you've
got to do to get on this show. So,
>> well, I'm going to attack you later
about China. So,
>> perfect. I look forward to it. Um, if
you'd like to support our work, you can
sign up, of course, at
navarmedia.com/sport.
You can also listen to the show on
Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Please do
like this video. Please do subscribe to
the channel if you haven't already. And
do not forget to let us know what you
think in the comments below. Straight
into our first story. Nigel Farage has
long been facing difficult questions
about his finances. An understatement
perhaps. Um and also the general
finances of Reform UK. Now so far the
biggest controversy has involved an
undeclared 5 million pound donation from
a Thai based crypto billionaire. Um as
you'll probably already know, Farage
denies breaking any rules there and a
parliamentary committee is set to make
their own mind up in the coming weeks
and months. In the meantime though, an
undercover report from the investigative
group Verbatim working with Channel 4
News appears to have caught key reform
leaders redhanded.
Um, so this investigative group had an
undercover reporter pose as the British
son of an American father who was keen
to donate to reform. Now, it's against
the law in the UK for political parties
to accept donations from foreigners. So,
it's relevant that this was uh a British
man explicitly trying to funnel
donations from his, you know, invented
American father. Um, but this undercover
reporter got on got in, sorry, with key
figures in the party. Um, like head of
policy James Ore. Apparently, if you
have a nice posh British accent and
potentially a lot of money, it's quite
easy to meet these people. Um, let's see
the first clip from this Channel 4
documentary because James Ore here
suggests um that the undercover
journalist's fake American father could
pay for a poll commissioned by reform.
>> So, we run we're going to run this 18k.
>> Mhm.
>> And then I I maybe somebody I could
think of who they could send an invoice
to.
>> Mhm.
>> Well, that's that would just be a a
suggestion or not. Like it's not it's
not a indirect campaign party
contribution
legit.
>> Polls can set the agenda. This is vital
for reform. They're fighting government
plans to cancel local elections. But a
poll packs far more punch if it can't be
traced to reform.
>> I need somebody to pay for it and it
can't be um
>> can't be a reform donor.
>> It can't be a reformed donor.
>> So you
>> Well, it sounds perfect. which sounds
funny. Um, and in terms of bang for
bang, I mean, it could be a great story
>> and allows us to be it all to be
completely legit arms length.
>> Nothing untoward about it at all.
>> Now, clue whenever anyone says nothing
untoward about it at all. Um, there's
definitely something untoward going on.
Um, this arrangement that was being
arranged there. So James or wanted this
fellow uh or his dad to pay for a poll
commissioned by reform. That would
probably be illegal. That's because
donations in kind have to be reported to
the electoral commission. This poll was
reform's idea. It was commissioned by
reform because they thought they would
benefit from it. Um but they didn't want
to pay for it themselves. So they asked
someone else to foot the bill. That is a
donation in kind and reform didn't
declare it. Um actually three polls were
commissioned this way. all undeclared.
Quite a lot of money spent. I think
about 30 grand. There's also another
reason this whole arrangement was
potentially illegal because these
donations in kind were funded by a
foreigner, the American dad. Naughty,
naughty. Um, it's not just James or who
was implicated either. Dan Jukes is
Nigel Farage's right-hand man. Um, he's
also in on the polling ruse. Um, so
there are clips in the show. I recommend
you go watch it. um where he's sort of
saying how brilliant it is um that this
undercover journalist, his American
father has paid for all of these polls.
So that's bad enough. However, he also
suggests a more direct way for the
American businessman to fund reform via
his British son.
>> Realize that you can do it.
>> You can do it. A key moment Juke
suggests William can pay using his
father's money. And actually that kind
of disrupt this as a as a solution.
>> The solution is that the father gives
the money to his son William who hands
it over to reform. That would be
illegal. But Jukes claims they've done
it several times before.
>> But you know, serious point donates to
us and he donates through
>> they donate through their
>> through their kids. Yeah. the
one of the things
I was known
the father and it's the son. So there is
that is one of the ways in which
>> have you had
>> so all of those beeped out names and we
can presume were foreign citizens who
had donated to reform via their British
sons. So it seems like this is a common
occurrence. Obviously it didn't actually
happen in this case because it was a
ruse. Um he was an undercover reporter.
his American dad didn't actually exist.
They did actually pay for the polls. So,
the undercover reporters did actually
front the cash for those polls. Um
although I think they assume they were
doing more damage by exposing this than
getting those polls on the front cover
of some newspapers. Um let's look at
what actually I think is the most
damning part of the whole documentary
though.
>> Just in the interest of straight sh
um how much what kind of figure
donations on the table? Why? So, so I've
got a budget um for
>> So, we've got Yeah, we've got a
commercial operations
and this sits somewhere between the
commercial and the philanthropic, right?
It's it's it's a little bit of both. Um
so, I think we could probably go,
>> you know, if I make it to number 10, you
know, you're having a pie with who's
effectively going to be cheapest staff
at number 10.
>> Yeah. Exactly.
>> If that doesn't if that if that isn't
business interest, I don't know what is.
>> No, exactly. Exactly.
>> That is so shameless. Right. He's
saying, so the guy who's posing as a son
of an American businessman, he's saying,
well, I've got a budget, some of it's
business, some of it's philanthropic or
political or whatever. And then the man
who is who was Nigel Farage right-hand
man who thinks he's going to be chief of
staff in Downing Street saying, "Well,
to be honest, this would be a business
expense because with just half a million
quid or whatever, you're going to have a
direct connection to the next prime
minister of the UK. And if that's not a
business interest, I don't know what
is." Now, what does that suggest? that
he thinks there's going to be some
financial benefit to the guy who donates
to Niger Farage, which to me looks, you
know, like a nudge nudge wink wink. Um,
there could be some useful corruption um
that might be able to happen here. Um,
reform have been reported to the police.
James our so he was the head of policy
also quite a sort of,
you know, prominent man. He's a
associate professor at Cambridge.
There's some controversy about that as
well, I should say. But he was supposed
to be sort of the intellectual or one of
the intellectual powerhouses of of
reform. He was the head of policy. Dan
Jukes um was Nigel Farage's right-hand
man. In his own words there, he thought
he would be chief of staff if Nigel
Farage was prime minister. They have
both been suspended.
So, Reform haven't said nothing to see
here. They've said, "We've watched the
documentary and clearly there are some
questions to answer here." Um Johnny,
this is a very effective sting, right?
Undercover report. I mean, it's
expensive to do undercover reporting for
a year, but they've taken out two of
reform's most senior figures on the eve
of their conference.
>> Yeah, it's massive. I think um it struck
me watching it how old fashioned it was.
It's been a while since we've had an
oldfashioned sort of hidden camera sting
like this. It reminded me of the days of
the fake shake or Sam Alladise with his
pint of wine and the sort of the secret
the secret bongs. But it was yeah, good
old fashioned bit of journalism. I mean,
I thought, what's going on in reform?
Didn't Dan Jukes or James or Google this
supposed American millionaire? Did they
have a sort of fake LinkedIn for this
guy? Was there an extensive sort of
social media presence? Did they plant
articles about him? Because if you have
a lot of money, you're sort of
multi-millionaire American, you know,
you tend to leave a sort of paper trail.
And it strikes me that due diligence
wasn't done, like how stupid it was.
I've got a sort of very tenuous
connection with with these guys. I saw
James O at the National Conservatism
Conference a few years ago and he's kind
of a spearhead. He's kind of a
figurehead sort of spearheading this
kind of slightly incoherent movement
that sort of does a slightly more
nationalistic sort of conservative
thing. Rather than being into
globalization, it's into protectionism
rather than being for sort of free trade
and business and sort of multinational
corporations. It's more into kind of
workers and sort of appealing to blue
collar voters and small businesses and
sort of petty bourgeois interests. So
that's the kind of political brand that
he sort of represents. But David Jukes,
sorry, Dan Jukes, sorry, Dan Jukes, I
saw in Makerfield, his the reform sort
of headquarters in Makerfield was 2
minutes down the road from the labor u
headquarters. I went down to the to go
and uh try and get into the the reform
headquarters. It was a reform. It was it
was a pub. And Dan Jukes sort of uh saw
me and another another journalist sort
of uh I don't want to name him but a
sort of blue labor right. And we was
like, you know, can we come in and have
a chat? Blah blah blah. And he was
basically no no we don't we check your
credentials. No. So he did more due due
diligence on us than he did for someone
proposing to donate, you know, a
foreigner, you know, it's against the
rules foreign people donating wanting to
donate sort of £500,000 to the party.
>> Yeah.
>> So what happened here? That's a good
point because they didn't mention it in
the it's a half hour documentary as I
say go watch it. It's on YouTube.
>> Um and they don't mention if they did
create any fake identities for anyone in
the background. But what they do say is
that sort of halfway through the
documentary,
someone from reform wants to meet the
dad or they think it would be useful to
introduce this American dad.
>> And I mean at least according to the
narrative of the documentary, they just
hire a random guy. Yeah.
>> They just hire a random American actor
to be the dad. So, if they're being
honest about, you know, the order in
which things happened, they can't
possibly have created a fake identity
because then reform would have noticed
that a different man turned up.
>> It doesn't look like the guy in the
picture in the picture. So, it does seem
like they just didn't Google him.
>> Yeah.
>> Like if someone's going to give you half
a million quid,
Google them.
>> Yeah. Literally. And and James James is
the head of policy. I mean I was saying
earlier offer this doesn't strike me as
something sort of going out canvasing
sort of for money off millionaires
doesn't strike me as the sort of main
sort of primary responsibility of a head
of policy
>> you know he's there this guy you know
he's a Cambridge academic a sort of
theologian as I say sort of spearheading
this kind of national conservative
movement this kind of slightly sort of
slightly weward brand of um of the sort
of sort of populist right bit more
Trumpian bit more kind of uh robustly
nationalistic etc um But he's meant to
be sort of coming up with ways of
translating that kind of slightly broad,
slightly incoherent thing into a
manifesto right before 2029. And yet
here he is going to sort of like
gentleman's clubs and sort of clarages.
Like
>> I think they love it though.
>> Of course it's like it's not this is not
a chore for him. Like the idea that oh
I've met someone who might be able to
donate lots of money to reform and I can
smoo him in clarages. Like that is what
they live for. And when they say sort of
like nothing untoward going on here like
nut wink wink that's like this is what
they had wet dreams about when they were
sort of in their bunk beds in boarding
school. Um
>> allegedly
>> Farage allegedly very important Farage
isn't resigning. So these two have have
been suspended but Farage is going to
stay the course. Um, however, he also
features in the documentary, right? And
the documentary, you know, it's it's
implied really that he must have been
aware of the foreign funding helping
reform. Um, and as I said, that's
because this this fake American
businessman and his fake British son got
to meet the reform leader.
I
>> came a long way to meet you, sir. A long
way.
>> True.
>> But but it's been adventure.
>> Wyoming to Clton.
>> Well, I'm very very impressed. I've been
working with with James with Dan for uh
for ages now. I was really really
excited about this meeting. I think we
can properly, you know, kickstart the
the next phase of our of our support.
It's it's it is really a pleasure to
introduce you both and and and that's
what we're interested in talking about
is the next phase of our support for the
party.
>> Okay. I uh run an American family office
and I haven't been able to donate
directly to this up to this point, but I
was thrilled to be able to pick up the
tab for the polls that you had
commission.
>> That was great.
>> It was and the third poll.
>> It was boom.
>> Right. When I saw the third poll on the
front page of the times because William
sent it to me, I thought, well, all
right, these are people who know how to
spend the money and that's what I want
to see. Bang.
That's exactly the phrase bang for the B
and there it is. So you have
>> I used to work with D on that but I get
it.
So Farage clearly knows what's going on,
right? The actor, I mean, they want to
implicate Farage, right? So they're very
explicitly saying, "I'm American and I
paid for the poll that you reform
wanted." And that ended up on the front
page of the newspapers. And Farage is
like, "Yep, it was great." You know,
he's not saying, "Oh, what are you
talking about?" He's like, "Yep, that
was great." Which to me looks a bit like
caught red-handed. I mean, the fake
American businessman in in a later clip
in the show um also discusses his plans
to donate to reform via his son. So,
sort of the explicit funding that didn't
come but would have come. Um and Farage
in response to that says, "Thank you
both of you." Um so, again, he seems to
be more than happy to go along with
this. Um Farage on LBC today said the
polling isn't an issue. He's saying that
there's nothing actually has gone wrong
here at all. Now, as I described at the
beginning of the show, and as is sort of
clear from the Channel 4 documentary, it
seems like it is an issue. It seems like
electoral law was probably broken. Um,
Farage also said he was just busy on a
bi-election campaign. He meets loads of
people. He was just being polite, I
suppose, is the argument he's putting
forward. Um, the issue though has
dominated the first day of reforms party
conference, as you would imagine. Um,
Farage had a pre-arranged press
conference with the French farright
politician Jordan Bardella. um where the
plan was to make a bunch of headlines
around channel crossings. Instead, um
Farage was left to say this.
>> The motives are without any shadow of a
doubt. These are a bunch of far less
activists who have perpetuated hoaxes
for many, many years, including, as I
say, their criticism from the Senate.
So, look, they were trying to entrap
people. Sadly, they got some way down
the line, but not all the way down the
line. We have not taken an illegal penny
in funding. That is that is important.
The loose pub talk, frankly, there was a
bit of boasting, a bit of jackaly going
on there. If it was more serious than
that, then I refer you back to the BBC's
question earlier. You know, there would
be the names would have been put onto
the program and there would be hell of a
row. They don't exist. Those donations
don't exist. Am I annoyed? Am I annoyed
that these people even got to meet me?
Yes, I am. It should not have happened.
>> Should not have happened. The two
individuals involved are not even part
of our fundraising team. So, they should
have gone through the appropriate
channels. Checks would have been made
and they would never ever have got to
sit down at a table with me. Elsewhere
on the media this morning, I heard Nigel
Farage describe um James or um and um
Dan Jukes as contractors, you know, as
if they were sort of just like people
who brought in to do up the kitchen. And
it's like they were head of policy and
your chief of staff, right? These are
very significant people. So for them to
res I actually think there's a big
problem here for reform in terms of
personnel just like there aren't that
many sort of people with experience who
who already work for reform. So if you
lose two of your top people that's an
issue in and of itself but then the fact
that at reform conference where they
really wanted to make a bunch more
headlines about channel crossings
everyone is just talking about how
corrupt their party is. I mean they're
screwed.
>> Yeah. I mean, I was kind of surprised
that he threw a and jukes under the bus
in a way because as we saw in that clip,
he's kind of banged to right
demonstrating he has full knowledge of
at least half of the this aspect of of
of this thing. You know, the sort of
polling aspect and you know there's
plausible deniability around the
donation, but really it he thanks them
both for the donation. It's pretty clear
he has sort of some some knowledge of
it. So,
>> so the donation, just to be clear, the
the donation, the direct donation to
reform didn't happen. No. So, he says
thank you in advance, I suppose.
>> Right. But it shows that he's kind of
got prior knowledge of something
untoward happening, right? So then if
you get rid of and jukes, it's kind of
you admit that they've done something
wrong and that you knew about it. So if
you knew about it, then surely it's time
for you to go too. I mean, he's not
going to. You know, the reform party is
the Nigel Farage party. Without him,
they're nothing basically. But it's kind
of surprised me because this is a kind
of a departure from the way they dealt
with the harbor donation, the sort of
separate story that was going on about
the 5 million um no strings attached
donation he got from this crypto
billionaire that was resident in
Thailand because he just came back and
said I'm not I'm not answering any
questions. I can do you know I could I
could have bet all that money on a horse
as he said you know I could have spent
it down the pub. It's none of your
business and this is an establishment
stitchup. This time there's a much
clearer admission of guilt which I'm
surprised about.
>> I suppose that's because I mean it seems
like in reform anyone could be thrown
under the bus apart from Nigel Farage
>> and has been on on multiple occasions.
>> Multiple occasions. So so the difference
there if you'd admitted any wrongdoing
there. There was no option but to say it
was Nigel Farage because it was it was a
donation directly to Nigel Farage.
Whereas here so the Nigel Farage has has
come up with a line which is which I
don't think is true but he thinks is the
one that he can you know most capably
hold to which is to say the polling
stuff was actually fine nothing to see
here there was no problem there now I
think that's probably not true one
because it was a donation in kind um it
wasn't declared and it was from a
foreign person right so that does look
like wrongdoing but he can't say that
was wrongdoing because that's the one
that he clearly sort of knew about,
agreed to, yada yada. He's saying the
thing that was wrong was the
arrangement to get the American father
to donate to the party. And the reason
he's saying that was the wrong one is
because that's the one that he's
slightly less clear. slightly more
plausible deniability.
>> Slightly more plaus, but I mean there's
going to be a police investigation into
all this and if they find that the poll
I mean he's still he's this man is never
going to resign obviously but I mean it
is going to do I think quite a lot of
damage to the party. Um let's see how
this has all gone down at reforms at the
conference today. Um our very own
Richard HS is there.
>> Are you worried about foreign influence
over our politics?
>> Uh yes.
>> Yeah. What kind of foreign influence is
you worried about? Well, not having our
own say really being in control of our
own.
>> Yeah, we we left
>> we did Brexit to avoid you know this
incident.
>> Last night on Channel 4, there was a
documentary that suggested that there
were American business people who were
trying to allegedly donate to reform.
This is illegal.
>> It's all apparently right. I think
nothing's been investigated properly. I
think there's there needs to be done uh
checks and everything done by the right
people. Nigel's come out himself and
said we've done nothing wrong. I don't
think it's for us to speculate for now.
>> And if it does turn out, if it does turn
out that those people have done
something wrong, they have broken
electoral law, would that change your
belief that reform can be the party of
integrity, the party of British values?
>> No. I believe I believe reform is is
exactly that. But if yes, let's
speculate. If it does come out that
something has been done wrong, as long
as it's been dealt with thereafter and
that people get what they deserve who
have done wrong, then
>> what are some of those values that you
think are so important people to adopt
when they come to the UK?
>> Honesty, integrity,
um,
uh, Christianity values. Basically, our
our heritage is based in Christianity
values. So, there was a there was a
documentary on Channel 4 yesterday that
alleged quite serious wrongdoing near
the top of Reform UK uh about breaking
electoral law by allowing American
donors to donate to the party which is
illegal. Is that honesty? Is that
integrity? Does the party uphold those
values?
>> You know, I can't believe that Nigel
Farage does not have integrity.
Everything has been slung at him. Death
threats, his daughter and his family
have been have been harassed. um to keep
going in light I don't care how much
money you chuck at me to keep going in
light of all that um means that he
believes in Great Britain.
>> What will it change for you about reform
if it turns out that that
>> nothing
I've always I've always voted
conservative. I'm 50 years old and I
just can't vote for them again after
they've let us down so badly for so
long.
>> Yeah, other parties are available. I'm
aware of that.
>> Why are those the only options for you
conservatives or reform? There are other
things you could do. The Greens, for
example,
>> I'm a small C conservative at heart. I
believe in conservative values and I
don't think we're getting those anymore
from the Conservative party. Do
>> you think foreign money in politics is a
big deal? Is it a problem?
>> Well, look at Lord Sainsbury and the
amount of money he gives to the Labour
Party and look what the Sainsburries
does that you know the freedom that they
have the supermarkets to actually stifle
and destroy. again they they decide what
they're going to pay farmers not what
it's worth
>> and then they make the millions whereas
far when farmers do the work and feed
you
>> excuse me please
>> so conference attendees um haven't been
put off their support for Nigel Farage
and reform um but what about reforms MPs
>> you were so excited about coverage
yesterday are you still excited
>> yes
>> even with more questions about party
funding and donations
>> listen can you hear the music.
>> Yeah.
>> Have you seen the crowds?
>> Have you seen Channel 4 News?
>> Have you seen the atmosphere here?
>> What do you make of the Channel 4 News
investigation?
>> Crying out for reform to win and fix
Britain.
Have you never quite done this to
answer the question then? What do you
make of the Channel 4 news
investigation?
>> As I said uh repeatedly today, uh we've
taken senior legal advice which confirms
that no laws. I want to go and watch
Zia. Um, the next home secretary is
going to stop the invasion. No laws have
been broken as the Casey has confirmed
and an internal investigation is going
to get to the bottom of exactly what
happened. I'm very very grateful for the
opportunity to talk to you. Thank you
very much.
>> Now, I think there might be a bunch of
extories like Suela Braman thinking they
jumped ship a little bit too soon,
right? They they didn't want to be
walking around reform. They didn't
switch parties to walk around answering
questions about party corruption, right?
They thought they were going to get to
stand on the stage and say, "I'm going
to be, you know, in the next cabinet. We
hate the establishment. We don't like
migrants." yada yada yada. We're riding
high. When they joined the party,
remember, they were far away ahead in
the polls. Um, now reform sort of second
and third in some polls. So, it's
looking really bad for them. Um, and
this is especially as their old leader
Kem Beno um has improved in the polls um
especially relative to Farage. So, this
Hugo poll um I think just released today
shows who people think would make the
best prime minister in various
head-to-heads. So you're asked who would
you prefer Stal Bernam or Bnock? Um
obviously in the past it was St. Now
it's Bern Burnham versus Bnock. Now
Bernham is comfortably ahead of BN on
42% to her 26%. Um but he's even further
ahead of Farage. So in a head-to-head
Bum is on 52% to Farage's 22%. Um and
when it comes to a head-to-head between
Ben and Farage, um there's been a really
dramatic change. So in early 2025,
Farage pled ahead of BNO when asked who
would you who would make the better
prime minister. Now BNO is on 45% to his
16%.
So I mean the the Tories are on the up
and reformer are on the down. On the
down that's not it's not quite a
beautiful phrase is it? Um anyway Johnny
will people like Sella Braman be kicking
themselves?
>> Yeah well the main the main beneficiary
of this is certainly Kem. I mean people
like people like Bravman, Genrich, Nadim
Zahari started joining um as you say
when they were at sort of 28 29 30% and
we're in such a fragment fragmented
electoral era at the moment that
conceivably sort of 30% could get you a
pretty pretty good majority. um as soon
as they started joining they started
sliding in the polls and they're now on
what 21 22
>> and this I think imposes a lower ceiling
on them and I think like the sort of 20%
that you have now is the people that
sort of Trump described when he was
having the primaries in 2016 when he was
like I could walk into the middle of
Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and they
could still vote for me right these are
the people that will it's the Nigel fan
club and they will vote for reform come
what Hey, but that doesn't win you an
election. They need to persuade some
kind of waitrose moms and sort of nice
Sunday Times reading marmalade and cafe
tier sort of home counties people with
John Lewis furniture that they're kind
of safe and you know experience and
they're not going to sort of wreak havoc
on the country. And I think basically
scandals like this and scandals like
Harbborne make that much less likely.
Um, and the beneficiary of that is Kem,
who can turn around and say, "I'm still
pretty right-wing. Um, I'm going to
deport people, leave the um, European
Court of Human Rights. Net Zero is a bit
stupid, but I'm not scary. I'm not
threatening. I'm not dodgy." Having said
that, some of the I think like some of
the people you saw in the reform queue
um and some of that sort of 20% block
that is like forage come what may kind
of have an attitude that like this kind
of thing is priced in not just for Nigel
but for all politicians
>> the expensive scan the expensive scandal
what is it 12 13 15 years ago something
like that um but it's had it's even more
but it's had a completely corrosive
impact on how people view MPs. Yuggov
was like 67% of people think they're all
in it for themselves. Whether it's sort
of financial gain or sort of career
progression, they're all sort of self-s
serving. This is like a common view.
Everybody thinks this and a lot of
people think MPs are on the take. You
know, everyone's at it type thing. You
know, the Conservative Party has
auctions for sort of a game of tennis
with Boris Johnson and a sort of Russian
oligarch. A friend of Putin bought it.
You know, this stuff is pretty, you
know, we'll go to Labour conference.
I'll go to Labor Conference at the end
of the month. It'll be full of sort of
fringe events sponsored by banks, arms
dealers, you know, whatever sort of
financial services companies, and
they'll all be paying money to sit in a
room with ministers and basically have a
little conversation, shake hands,
exchange business cards. You know, it's
not it's not what we've seen on this
tape. It's not illegal, but everyone
kind of sees this kind of slightly murky
kind of lobbying grubby world where sort
of money and politics and the sort of
revolving door between the private
sector and sort of parliament and they
just kind of think, well, that's
politics. That's, you know, and if Nigel
does it, he's not really doing something
that's completely abnormal.
>> Yeah.
>> So, you know, I'm not defending Nigel
Farage here and I normally are saying
they're all the same. They're not.
However, I think that's quite a common
view.
>> And that core is not enough though, is
it? No, in a way,
>> does this raise the chances of Andy
Burnham calling a snap election? Because
at the moment, the right is split like
50/50.
>> Yeah.
>> Like ideal
>> and that's ideal. Like the left is not
like Burnham's on a bounce. Like lots of
people who are green curious are going
back to Labor.
>> Um
>> reform and the Tories, neither of them
can really claim to be the one to vote
for if you don't like Labour. Also, no
one really hates Burnham. Like I feel
like now would be a good time for a
general election. Get your own
manifesto. Get your own mandate.
>> Yeah. I kind of think if you look at the
sort of polling of prime ministerial
approval ratings for every prime
minister going back to thatcher, it only
goes one direction.
>> Yeah.
>> Unless there's a kind of huge national
emergency like co for example where
Boris Johnson's went from sort of decent
to like ultra high like you know like uh
you know uh you know Putin levels of
popularity.
>> Yeah. you know, in a sort of forged
election, but like barring those kind of
national emergencies, it only sort of
goes down. The honeymoon period is the
time to go. And sort of people point to
Theresa May and that kind of when when
the going to get your own mandate went
wrong and sort of backfired. Um, she had
an awful campaign, by the way. There was
that awful dementia tax thing. But I
would say that basically she started the
campaign on 40%. And she won about 42%.
>> What happens Corbyn completely
hegemonized the left vote. He he he got
a bunch of Lib Dems and uh managed to
get from 26 to 40. But Theresa May's
vote stayed steady,
>> you know. And I think like the thing to
compare it to is is not Theresa May, but
Gordon Brown cuz every, you know,
there's a consensus now that if Gordon
Brown had gone in 2007 early before the
financial crisis, before, you know,
Northern Rock and Leman Brothers uh wre
havoc with the public finances, then he
would have got his five-year mandate. Um
he was in that sort of that brief window
of popularity and he squandered it. And
I I think Burnham I think Burnham um we
got a huge financial cataclysm coming
down the road from the bomb markets and
the straight of horm
things could only get worse. I would go
for it if I
>> probably is too. He should he should go
for it. Um we were talking about
grubbiness earlier. Um and this
documentary wasn't just embarrassing for
reform. It was also embarrassing for
other parts of the British
establishment. Um why? Um because the
polls commissioned by reform were
planted in British newspapers. Um some
of the newspapers claimed the polls as
their own. So they said we commissioned
this bizarrely. Um and that all meant
that reform were helped in their secret
plans by the laziness um of the British
press. Also though they were helped by
the complicity or the apparent
complicity of a polling company JL
Partners. Now, in the Channel 4
documentary, the undercover reporter met
with the man who runs that firm.
>> So, talk me through how that worked with
the
Telegraph poll
cuz they sort I I I was I was delighted
to see them claiming it as their own,
but I was also like
>> I Yeah, it was I
>> Yeah, I mean, it's classic, right?
Classic. It's that kind of like got a
good story for you here
>> for them. It's copy,
>> right?
>> So, you know, it's fantastic. Exclusive.
Can we call it an exclusive? Yeah,
brilliant. You know, send us a quote.
>> And and do they say, "Can we run it as
as you know, commissioned for the tele?"
>> It's funny. No, it's so funny. No one
has ever asked that, but they always do
it anyway.
>> Really?
>> And it's better than them going and
saying, "Well, commissioned by Dan
Jukes."
>> Yeah. Well, indeed. And that's not
that's I mean, that's never going to
happen cuz we'd never let that happen.
>> And in fact, they don't even know that,
right?
>> No. No. Exactly. They would never know
that. God know. Um that's the thing.
That could never happen including with
you. Won't
>> happen. this month.
>> When the poll appeared, reforms leaders
were ecstatic, pushing it out all over
social media.
>> So, this looks really bad for him
because he he knew it was commissioned
by reform. He's he's saying that there,
right? He's saying his contacts at
reform commissioned the poll and he's
saying he would never have told any of
the newspapers that it was commissioned
by reform, right? Which, you know, that
that is a failure of transparency. Um
also I can just see um as we've been
live or actually just before we went
live that the British Polling Council
and Market Research Society two um
pillars of British propriety they have
announced inquiries into JL partners. Um
in terms of the significance of this and
what it means for the the media as well
because one of these polls made it to
the front page of the Telegraph in
January. Um so you can see it has the
headline labor would face wipeout if
elections went ahead. Um this was at the
point where Labour were planning to
suspend um local elections while
redistricting um took place or
reorganization of local government. Now,
embarrassingly for the paper, the
article reads, quote, according to
polling for the Telegraphs, that's a
complete lie. Um then in May, the Times
splashed with the headline that union
members were just as likely to support
reform as Labor. Um they didn't claim
this as their own polling, but also
didn't say reform had commissioned the
polling, um which they hadn't been told.
Um, clearly embarrassing for JL partners
and that man, James Johnson. Um,
also very embarrassing for the Telegraph
who said they commissioned the poll when
they didn't, cuz that's just a lie. The
Times is probably the most borderline
one because they got sent an interesting
press release from JL Partners and then
they put it on the front page of their
paper. Have they done anything wrong?
Um, I don't want to get accused of sort
of defending
the the mainstream media and sort of
incompetent colleagues. I mean, I if if
the Times was duped, then I was duped
because I think I wrote a piece about
that poll
>> and sort of discussed that sort of move
of reform to a slightly more sort of
workerist sort of red toy blue labor
politics when they were talking about
nationalizing steel and nationalizing
water and sort of going head-to-head
with the Bank of England and it was
obviously translating into this support
from active trade unionists. So, I wrote
it up, I believe, or I think I did or at
least mentioned in it a piece and
tweeted about it. Did I go back to JL
Partners and say, "Uh, oh, who who paid
for this poll?" No, I didn't.
>> But, but you many I'm not sure.
>> Did you write it up from the JL partners
press release or from the times?
>> That's a good point. I said from the
Times.
>> From the times. You were doing
reporting.
>> Yeah, exactly. Because I do think that
if if if you get a press release from a
pollster, you should ask who
commissioned it because because they
don't pay for them themselves, right?
And I get I get press releases all the
time from NOS's. Like it this is not
just a right-wing thing like leftwing
NOS's are always doing a poll sort of
saying 55% of the public want tougher
action on climate change for example.
And it's sort of like doesn't mean that
much because if to really know what the
public think you have to say would you
prioritize action on climate change over
the economy or whatever. cost a week or
whatever. if you like do you like often
these polls amount to do you like good
things and do you not like bad things so
they're often a bit meaningless but and
that's often actually why I don't cover
them because I think that it's kind of
push polling but if I were to cover them
I would definitely say the poll
commissioned by campaign for XYZ to just
say a poll
>> no one's paying say for the um the Yugov
constant kind of voting intention no
that's you pay for that themselves
although actually
>> that's that's kind of to to draw more
business I suppose it's just something
that they constantly doth Well, actually
some of those I think are in partnership
with I think Yuggov do have a
partnership with Times and Sky where
maybe Sky and Times do pay them a bit of
money, but they also do it cuz it raises
their profile and then
>> because they've got this raised profile
from the from the voter intention then
>> you can commission more specific ones.
>> You can commission more specific and it
looks because everyone thinks, "Oh, it's
a Hugo P. It's legit."
>> Exactly. It's a bad day at the office
for jail partners. That's for sure.
>> It's a bad day at the office for jail
partners. Dear idea, not that I feel,
you know, who cares in a way. Do we feel
too bad? I suppose I do. I always feel
bad for people when they do get caught
on camera sort of saying something a bit
embarrassing cuz everyone said something
embarrassing in their lives. But
>> and it wasn't like James Johnson was
kind of soliciting half a million pound
donations, potentially illegal.
>> No, but he was he was playing a very
active role in a sneaky campaign by he's
done.
>> I mean, he says he was bending the
rules. He says they were bending the
rules. He's he's got a close
relationship with reform politicians who
are giving his company a lot of money.
He's going to get some of that money and
then part of the deal with reform
politicians is that he won't say who
commissioned the poll. So he's done a
he's done a bad thing.
>> Yeah.
>> With no fair.
>> Yeah. He's James Johnson is in the
wrong.
>> Um I don't know if jail partners will
get struck off, but they should feel
embarrassed and hang their heads in
shame.
>> Uh we talked on last week's show about
the open AI hack of hugging face. It
involved hundreds of AI agents breaking
out of a testing environment,
collaborating on a message board,
sacrificing themselves for the good of
the AI collective um and in hacking
another company, ultimately committing
quite a serious crime. Um, in short, it
was exactly the kind of situation that
AI doomers have been warning us about.
So, how have Open AI responded? Well,
they've released to the public their
new, more powerful model. Um, it's
called chat GPT6
Astra.
>> One thing that I think people will
immediately notice is if you have an
idea and you want to work interactively
with an AI to get uh, you know, a
complex piece of a whole piece of
software built. This is the first model
to me where I could sort of tell someone
like just give it a try. There's a
there's a good chance it'll work. And,
you know, I've I've watched people make
computer games. I've watched people do
sort of like home sort of DIY electrical
engineering projects. Uh I've watched
people do very complex simulations for
some piece of science they're working
on.
Well, that all sounds lovely. What a
useful piece of technology that we can
now all download and if we want pay 20 a
month to open AI for. Um, however, what
if this new powerful model also takes us
one step closer to a world where we lose
control of the technology? Um, and what
could the next hugging face look like?
Well, the experts are very much
concerned. Ryan Greenblat led the meter
report into the hugging face incident,
which we reported on on last Friday's
show. Um, this was his verdict on Astra.
So he says, "GPT6 Astra appears to be a
massive jump in opaque reasoning
ability. It looks like it can solve hard
competition math problems entirely in
its head, as in without verbalized
reasoning, while prior AIs could solve
basic word problems. This seems
extremely concerning. So if you remember
from our report last week on the hugging
face attack meter which is this sort of
AI safety firm they could trace what
happened at open AI because the the AI
agents reason in English they have a
chain of thought. So they can say I'm
thinking should I do X or should I do Y?
Well actually maybe B will get me hit.
So you can sort of see what was the
thought process they used when they took
their actions. You can look at their
transcripts to see what they were
thinking. Now in this more powerful
model that's become harder to do. So, we
sort of we've said, well, these were
very dangerous. Let's make them harder
to interpret. That's basically what's
happened. Um, OpenAI have admitted that
themselves as well, so they're not
denying this. Um, except they say it's
not a big deal. Doesn't really matter.
Um, so this is from OpenAI. According to
our evaluations, GPT6 Astra shows a
substantial decrease in chain of thought
monitor
compared to previous models. Overall,
our alignment evaluations show that
Astra is more likely than chat GPT 5.6
six soul to respect security and safety
restrictions which make us confident in
still deploying this model to the wider
public. So they're basically saying we
understand this model much less than our
previous ones. We can't see what's going
on in their heads. However, in our test
it hasn't acted that bad, right? So who
knows? We don't understand it but it
seems to be better behaved. There's a
catch here though because the reason
they say it's better behaved is because
they've done evaluations of this model.
They sort of tested it in a testing
envirment. Um but the models we've been
told um by the UK AI safety institute
they often worked out they were being
tested right so this is again what the
doomers have long warned about right
that AIs we don't understand what's
going on they could and I should
emphasize could because this is quite
speculative they could be lulling us
into a false sense of security right in
the test in the evaluations they say oh
we'd never do anything wrong but we
can't read what's going on in their
minds we could in the past and now we
can't Because if if you're asking why
would you have stepped backwards on
that? I think it's because that could be
seen as a waste of time, right? The most
efficient way to have an AI is for it to
work out what to do in its own language.
It's been called for a while neural
ease. So sort of instead of them
speaking English, they speak their own
language, which is maybe more efficient.
So that can make them more powerful. It
also makes it harder for us to
understand what's going on. And if you
don't want the big clever machine to
take control, I think it would be
helpful to be able to read its mind,
which we can't do anymore. Anyway, this
all suggests to me it's well past the
time for governments to get involved.
And once again, Senator Bernie Sanders
is leading the charge. We need an
immediate pause on advanced AI
development, and a permanent ban on
super intelligence, an artificial mind
smarter than any human capable of
operating independently beyond our
control. Countries around the world must
work together to prevent this nightmare
scenario. That is why I am announcing
that as soon as Congress reconvenes, we
will be introducing legislation to do
just that. Let me be clear. A super
intelligent AI that escapes human
control will not be an American problem.
It will not be a Chinese problem. It
will be humanity's problem. The
legislation that I'm offering would
direct the federal government to not
just stop super intelligence here in the
United States, but work to prevent it
from being developed anywhere around the
world. The future of humanity cannot be
left in the hands of a handful of big
tech oligarchs. The American people and
people throughout the world must
determine that future.
>> I love Bernie Sanders. I mean, he's he's
so ahead of the game on this, right?
Lots of people were saying politicians
can't really talk about this because it
seems too wacky. It seems like sci-fi.
Bernie Sanders, that was a clip from a
7-minute video I showed you. He sort of
quoted, he's like, Dario Amade, the head
of anthropic says we can't control this.
Sam Alman, the head of OpenAI, says we
can't control this. And he reads things
from the Meter report. saying, "Look,
I'm not a computer scientist, but this
seems goddamn crazy to me and we should
shut it down." Um, also watching that
made me feel even more like when I'm
reading the meter reports or whatever,
like I was in a sci-fi movie, cuz that's
such a scene that you would get in the
sci-fi takeover movie where there's a a
politician who's ahead of the game,
who's speaking to the public saying,
"It's time to shut it down." Obviously,
in that sci-fi movie, everyone says,
"No, he's ridiculous. He's talking
crap." Um, of course, also by mentioning
China, which you heard Bernie Sanders
there say, um, he was preempting um, the
criticism that would come his way when
calling for an AI pause. So, the
billionaire Trump donor Bill Aman said
this on Thursday in response to Bernie's
call, would Bernie prefer our enemies to
get to super intelligence before we do?
Who votes for this guy? And that's a
position the Trump administration has
taken in the past.
Do you do you think that the US
government is capable in a scenario
again not like the ultimate Skynet
scenario but just a scenario where AI
seems to be getting out of control in
some way of taking a pause because for
the reasons you've described the arms
race component
>> it's yeah the honest question to that is
I I don't know because part of this arms
race component is if we take a pause do
the does the PRC not take a pause and
then we find ourselves you know we're
all sort of enslaved to to to PRC
mediated AI.
>> The context of that interview, I think
we did a story on it at the time, is JD
Vance has has had read the report AI
2027, which was basically saying the AIs
could take over and kill us all. And he
took it very seriously. Like he didn't
really have a critique of it, but he
says, "Yeah, I mean, maybe the AI could
take over and kill us all, but also I'd
prefer it to be American, the AI that
kills us all than Chinese. I you know,
nothing more shameful than getting
killed by a a communist robot. Oh, I'd
much prefer to get killed by the liberal
capitalist one, please. Um, as I say,
that was JD Vance speaking to the New
York Times last year. There are though
now potential signs of a change of mood.
So, Helen Toner, we've shown you her
before as well. She was on the board of
OpenAI. Um, she was one of the people
who tried but ultimately failed to fire
Sam Alman because he's a dishonest,
lying path. Um, she thinks there might
be some hope for greater agreement
between China and the United States.
The US companies will say, "Hey, we have
to keep pushing otherwise China will
will win this race." What exactly it
means to win the race is is a longer
conversation, but the China argument
comes up a lot. And we actually have
Trump and Xiinping planning to meet in
September in the White House. And this
is crazy to me as someone who has
followed US China relations for a long
time and also AI for a long time. AI is
right at the top of their agenda. That's
really interesting. Is there something
that they can say to um create an
understanding that we do actually have a
little bit more time and space here?
Whether it's a you know each leader uh
sharing an a plan to domestically look
at what their industries are doing and
and ask more questions.
So, if the Americans were interested in
a deal to slow down AI, which is a a
massive if, you know, I I don't think
this is a Donald Trump priority, but if
they were to come around to a rational
position and say, "We need a deal. We
need to do something about this. It's
getting out of control, would then the
Chinese government want to play ball?"
Um, really interesting question. Carl
Chan is a fellow at the Brookings
Institute, an expert on the Chinese tech
sector. um and he runs the high-capacity
newsletter.
>> Actually, yes. I think some people would
be surprised, especially in the US, that
China might be willing to not just talk
about some of these issues, but do
something jointly with the US. I think
the time right now is ripe because both
countries are changing their minds about
um AI risk and AI safety. um the uh
technology is moving very very quickly
and we are getting these major
incidents. Um I mean so far it hasn't
seemed to you know the hugging face
incident for example it didn't cause
actual economic damage or or worse but I
think it doesn't take a huge leap to
start to see how these systems can cause
real damage. Okay, that's really
interesting actually because um I've
sort of seen interviews of you in the
the recent past where you've been
suggesting that China isn't actually as
concerned about these issues as the
United States. Not because they're sort
of they're more happy and open to have a
dangerous AI, but they just didn't quite
see AI in the same perspective as it was
seen in Silicon Valley, which is as
this, you know, potential godlike being.
Um the argument I've seen you make
before is that China wasn't AGI pilled.
Is China now getting more AGI pill?
They're starting to see this as a not a
normal technology, something which is
quite extraordinary, quite different.
>> It's something in between. So I still
think that the leaders in Beijing are
not AGI pill in the sense that we think
about say in the United States where
they expect super intelligence to be
around the corner uh completely
transformative in every single domain of
human life, maybe even wipe us off the
map. Right? That's literally the kind of
talk that we hear from Silicon Valley,
from uh maybe increasingly in
Washington. I don't think that's what
people in Beijing think. I do think
there are some people in the Chinese AI
ecosystem who are worried about, you
know, so-called catastrophic risk. Um
but I do think there's a sort of middle
ground um which is still quite alarming
and that I think Chinese policy makers
are taking more and more seriously and
that is the risk of major cyber
incidents. the risk of the technology
sort of getting out of control um going
rogue doing things to important critical
infrastructure, important uh information
technology systems that have real world
impacts and that now we are not sure if
we can trace that back or much less uh
uh reign that back in once it's out
there.
>> Has the hugging face incident in
particular had an impact in in China
because it's I mean it's had an impact
in the west quite clearly. I think it
has um it adds to a ongoing list of
indications um from China that they are
taking some of these issues more
seriously. Um so not so long ago China
released a AI agent framework. Half of
that was about accelerating AI adoption
and agents everywhere uh how it can
improve the economy. But a pretty good
chunk of that was about um
responsibility and control over agents.
And um there's not a surefire way to
deal with this. I think both China and
the US are sort of groping around trying
to figure out what what a good regul
regulatory system should look like, but
that was a big signal that it was
already on Beijing's radar. Also recall
earlier this year, OpenClaw was a really
big trend in China. It was huge. It's
this um basically AI agentic harness
that allows people to you know run AI
systems on their own computers at home
and that can do really wonderful things.
It can also sort of get out of hand and
leak data or open your your computer or
your IT system to uh cyber intrusions.
So that's something that um China's uh
cyerspace regulator was also starting to
warn about. So I think that the hugging
face incident is kind of the latest and
perhaps the the biggest example of what
could happen and how Beijing is starting
to shift.
>> So So you've said that China actually
might be quite open to this kind of
thing sort of reaching some kind of
agreement whether formal or informal. Um
Trump and she are meeting towards the
end of this month I think on the 24th of
September. Um what kind of thing do you
think could come out of that that
meeting?
So, I have relatively low expectations
for this very first meeting. And I think
that we should have low expectations
because I think the first time we had an
official USChina AI dialogue under the
Biden administration, expectations were
a bit too high. I think there was maybe
some hope of even binding constraints um
some broader AI agreement. And when we
didn't get that in the first try, we
felt like, well, this is kind of
pointless. Let's give up. And I don't
think that this will be solved in one
round of dialogue. So the key first step
is to start talking to start opening
those channels of communication to start
sharing notes at least about what
happened with hugging face, what are
Chinese AI models doing? Are there
incidents in China that um Beijing
should or could share with the United
States? Um are there communication
channels even between the AI labs, the
frontier labs themselves? So I think
that would be a helpful first step. Um
eventually I would like to see us move
up the ladder in terms of what the two
countries can and should do together but
um starting to talk about this is
actually very important and my concern
is there's going to be sort of a switch
between two arguments from the west and
I suppose AI accelerationists on the
west the first to say we can't possibly
slow down our AI development because
then China might overtake us but then I
imagine they'll also say we couldn't
possibly make a deal with China because
China only wants to sign that deal
because we're ahead of them and
obviously these two things They're
slightly inconsistent, but I imagine
that's going to be sort of the default
position of of Washington. I mean, is
that something that you see as likely
and would there be a way out of that?
>> Yeah, the big problem here between the
US and China is trust. Um, for the
technical folks, you know, who want to
see better AI safeguards, better AI
guard rails, um, better safe pre-release
testing, I think that there's still this
geopolitical dimension to all this that
we can't forget about, which is the US
is very worried that, um, if we hold
ourselves back, then China will race
ahead. And China is worried that um some
of this discussion about AI safety and
AI regulation is not about AI regulation
per se, but about trying to slow China
down or trying to keep China out. Um so
you see commentary from sort of the
Chinese state media ecosystem where
they're they're concerned about this
being an excuse uh along with other
things like export controls to to slow
China's own development. So you can see
the deep distrust uh from both sides.
Even in the face of that, I would argue
that both countries have a very strong
national interest incentive in trying to
figure something out here. Neither
country wants their own models to be
attacking their own systems. I think
leaders in Beijing, the last thing they
want to see is a Chinese open source
model being used to hack a Chinese
government website. Um, and so I think
there's a lot of overlap actually in
just pure sort of national interests.
And I think that can escalate to uh
something something bigger than than
merely um standing at arms length.
Another argument I've seen as to why um
America doesn't need to wait to slow
down because um you know the argument
being we can't slow down or the
Americans can't slow down because then
the Chinese will overtake them is people
say that actually the pace of Chinese
development is is kind of parasitic on
the Americans because the Chinese models
or the most advanced Chinese models
they're often created by essentially
reverse engineering the most advanced
American models via a process called
distillation. Um, is that your
understanding of what's going on or do
you think that the Chinese in theory
could um overtake the Americans?
>> The Chinese could in theory overtake the
Americans. Um, distillation is a factor,
but I don't think it is the main driving
reason why you have Chinese AI models
performing so strongly. And keep in
mind, we have, you know, multiple
Chinese AI companies, multiple Chinese
AI labs producing models that um have
come out and are so strong that they
can't that they've come out so shortly
um or so closely in relation to other US
frontier models that they don't have
time to to to distill. So I think that
when it comes to public models from the
US, we could even see that gap shrink um
between the Chinese models and the US
models or even Chinese models overtake
on the public side. On the other hand
though, OpenAI and Anthropic seem to be
now keeping some of their their truly
best models perhaps in reserve uh for
their own internal use. Um and then
maybe they're distilling their own
models and and releasing sort of a a
modified version for for public use. So
there there is a an issue there where um
yeah at least on the public side uh that
gap could could close or or even reverse
>> and and talk to me about the AI
ecosystem in China because I mean in our
coverage of this um we're always talking
about anthropic and Dario Amade and and
OpenAI and Sam Alman these big
characters in these private corporations
which have their own very sort of
specific interests who we sort of then
talk about how they're lobbying the
government and they're all these very
sort of distinct organs. with distinct
interests. Um, what's the situation in
in China? Is it is it comparable or does
it look very different?
>> I think on the surface it looks very
very different because I mean just look
at the personalities and the kinds of
drama that you see in the American AI
industry, right? Like Sam Alman and
Daario could not even hold hands at that
AI summit in India. um they have sort of
a personal uh animosity not anything not
even to say anything of the Sam Alton
Elon Musk rivalry right so in a number
of these areas you see these personality
clashes really come to the four and I
think that um reflects and and drive
some of the uh company uh level
competition in China is a different
story a lot of the AI founders um know
each other um some were trained together
some um like the founder of uh Z.AI AI
also known as Drupal um was worked with
the founder of Moonshot um the maker of
Kimmy K3 and so there are a lot of
overlaps and they are trying to build
and learn from each other in the Chinese
system. Um part of their open- source
push is to share sort of knowledge,
share innovations especially on making
these models more efficient so that the
the whole is greater than the sum of the
parts um and that the different Chinese
AI labs can can build on each other's
work. So at least on the surface you
have that collaboration. I'm sure there
are very intense rivalries also in
China.
>> Yeah. I wanted to ask about that
actually because obviously people
associate Chinese frontier AI as being
open source. Um in the United States
it's all proprietary software. It's
obviously anthropic and open AI in
particular they own the weights. Is that
as simple as China is communist and
America is capitalist. Therefore the
frontier of technology is open source in
China and it's proprietary in the United
States. Is that's is that what's going
on here?
>> It is funny how you have this parallel
between the sort of different uh
ideologies or or regime types and the uh
commercial strategies for these
companies and the tech strategies for
these companies. Yeah, I mean certainly
China's open- source push um comports
well with the broader message that
Beijing is trying to send to the rest of
the world. Um that not only, you know,
are they this sort of collaborative uh
open ecosystem within China, but that
they're trying to position themselves as
uh partners in development for other
countries around the world, especially
across the global south. That's the
message that's coming out of Beijing.
And I think it it it's sort of like
ironic how much then the US approach
serves that same reinforces that same
message. Right? So when um when the US
puts puts export controls on um
Anthropic's latest model Fable and stops
other people from around the world
including within the US from suddenly
using that model um that sends a message
that the US is more closed that
Washington is more willing to um uh
exert control over this powerful
technology or that the uh US AI
companies themselves are also able to
exert more control and bring those
profits back to Silicon Valley. So, I
think it's funny how this is has been
set up. It's it's an eerie parallel. I
think there's probably not a coincidence
that you have some of this here.
>> Um, and you can't talk about AI or no
one can talk about AI in in the West
without discussing whether or not it's a
bubble. And I wonder if there's a
similar conversation going on in China
or I suppose because of the difference
of the economic model, there's not
nearly as much money going into these
Chinese AI companies. Is that is that
not part of the debate over there?
>> There there are some worries about a
bubble. Um, I think if there's going to
be a bubble in China, more people are
worried about like the robotics bubble
happening right now because there's been
a huge push on humanoid robots, for
example. Um, but overall, it seems like
at this stage, China is taking arguably
a more sustainable approach to how to do
AI. Um, keep in mind in the US in
contrast like the the major AI companies
are building out data centers at the
level of something like a trillion
dollars of uh capex spend per year. I
mean that's that's the projected spend
for next year. Um the speed and um scale
of data center buildout in the US is
sort of absolutely historically
unprecedented in the US and um is
putting a lot of strain on local
communities. is getting a lot of
backlash um and is subject to supply
chain constraints and a whole bunch of
other uh energy issues. Um so there is a
question about how sustainable it is in
the US and on top of that you have um
just basically two players now running
the show open AI and anthropic. Um so
you have a much greater concentration of
industry risk whereas in the Chinese
system it's uh more distributed there's
multiple players and while they are
trying to invest heavily in compute
they're not making this sort of bet the
entire economy on um on reaching AGI.
>> Uh let's finish by talking about those
robots um that everyone has seen sort of
especially in the humanoid uh world
games or Olympic games. I'm not sure
exactly what it was called. Um, and I
suppose I want to link this to the
sci-fi scenarios we're all hearing about
because I mean in the west at least
there's this big division. I'm sure you
know that I'm not sure where you fit
within it actually. Um, in terms of
people who think that these potential
takeover sci-fi scenarios are plausible
and people who think it's just absolute
nonsense. Now often the people who think
it's implausible, they think the issue
is this is on a computer. How can it
possibly harm us? I mean we'd need big
we'd need AI robots before it would be a
real sort of danger to us all. China has
a lot of AI robots. It has a lot of AI
drones. Is there concern in China that
these things might at some point take
over or is is that still seen as as
far-fetched in sci-fi?
>> Yeah, I think that's still in the realm
of sci-fi. I think a huge um gap there
is just the capabilities of these
robotic systems are very very limited,
especially the humanoid robots, right?
It's it's sort of fun to watch the clips
from the uh humanoid robot Olympics that
were happening in China where you have
these robots. I mean they can perform
very impressive feats but they also end
um their 100 meter dash by crashing into
a wall or um they they they're sort of
falling over the place and it's you know
you know we we might even sort of
overestim over over underestimate their
capabilities because they seem so
comical at this stage at least. But one
thing to keep in mind is that this
divide between the sort of digital world
and the physical world is not so neat as
we might want to think. And that's where
coming back to sort of the AI systems, I
do think that they there are real
physical world consequences if we don't
have a good system for regulating uh AI
um whether it's the energy grid or the
um communication systems. And on the
robotic side, I think actually if
anything, there has been a lot of a
long-standing concern about robotic
safety, industrial robots in the
workplace, how to make sure that you
have clear lines between where human
workers are working and where these, you
know, um large industrial robotic arms
are working. So, I hope that that
continues and I hope that especially as
we see the proliferation of robots in
more and more settings, um that safety
issue continues. If only we could have
that kind of safety mentality with these
really powerful AI systems that IU can
can also do quite a bit of damage.
>> Yeah, I mean I I have to say I agree.
Let's let's hope something comes out of
this summit um later this month. Um Carl
Chan, thank you so much for for joining
us. Always a pleasure to get you on the
show.
>> Thank you.
>> That was Carl Chan speaking to me
earlier. A little bit of hope there. You
know, maybe maybe if she and Trump get
together, they can save us from the
apocalypse. Let's hope. As you may know,
earlier this year, I went to China. Um,
I've talked about it a hell of a lot.
I've done videos about it. Me and Aaron
were always talking about China on this
show, and we're often talking about what
China does a little bit better than us
here in Britain. Um, well, uh, not
everyone thinks this has necessarily
been the best way to talk about the
Chinese Communist Party. And there was
an article this week when Navar Media
got a name check. Um, so the article is
called Why the British Left Has Fallen
for China. Um, it analyzes the current
trend of left-wing Brits looking to
China's state capacity with envy. Who
does that remind you of? Um, and this is
from that article. If local prospects
for power and influence look weak, new
objects of enthusiasm must be sought in
distant clims. China fills the void.
Where Britain lacks vigor, China is
dynamic. Where the western left is
defined by impotence, Chinese red
princlings command supreme authority.
Left liberal economists such as Adam
Toss marvel at the results of the CCP's
activist industrial policy and green
manufacturing revolution. This is the
key bit. The Corbinite shock troops and
progressive cool kids at Navara Media
are spellbound by the results of
stateowned EV factories in Chongqing.
I can't imagine the progressive cool
kids. Chongqi.
I was a I was once a progressive call
kid in Chongqing. I'll take it. Um the
article though as I says as I say I
should say um thinks that looking to
China might be a mistake for the British
left. Britain isn't suffering for lack
of Marxist Leninist one party foresight
but rather is struck with a peculiarly
British disease. The prescription will
never be a replication of Chongqing. But
we can take solace in the fact that we
have solutions that are more mundane.
long-term capital budgeting, government
departments that approach problem
solving by prioritizing investment over
more cash transfers, planning reform
that presumes a well- reggulated right
to build over a discretionary right to
block. And it it ends by saying if the
left is to have a future um it is in
Britain maxing um not China maxing.
Um the author of that article is today's
co-host Johnny B. Uh the link when it's
the socialist lovelies or whatever it
was wondering at Chongqing the link was
to my thumbnail where I go like China
blew my mind.
>> So I took the read. I mean I like I I
like to feel relevant so it's nice that
I appeared in the article but um
>> what's the beef Johnny?
>> Well I'm a Navara cool kid now.
>> True.
>> Because here I am.
>> Yeah. Can I just say I'm very impressed
by the massive EV factories in China and
all of the China maxing reels that I
say. This was written in the spirit of
um neoar neo mauis selfcriticism
because I have been a bit of a China
maxer myself
>> and uh I think angloangism
>> I didn't come up with it actually uh
someone who works for the bank of
England said it to me and I nicked it
off them with their permission and put
it in an article Angloism. So Angloism,
Denism, Deng Xiaoping, and Deng
Xiaoping's sort of big argument when he
took over from Mao is to say, let's do
what works. Doesn't matter if it's a a
black cat or a white cat. What matters
is if it catches mice. And his whole
point was we need to become rich. We
need to do whatever works to build the
state capacity, the industrial capacity
of China because all of this sort of
ideology, this dogmatism, it's got us
nowhere. And Angloenism is to say, look,
conservative labor, liberal, yada yada
yada. We need to build goddamn HS2,
>> right? And then HS3 and then HS4
>> and then a gigafactory.
>> Yes.
>> And some housing.
>> So you're an Angloangist. Well,
>> but you think,
>> well, okay,
>> they've got something wrong as well.
>> I thought it needed some qualification.
Um, and so it wasn't Attack on Nara
really. It was it was kind and I noticed
a general trend and I think basically it
stems from um
there was that essay by Tony Blair which
everyone was sort of enraptured by. I
was like, why this guy is such a serious
thinker that it was published on the
Tony Blair Institute website and he was
like, the left need to have big ideas
from the intern from the intellectual
wasteland of Corbinism. Uh, you know, we
we haven't had any renewal. And I kind
of read this and I thought, well,
Corbinism was the opposite of that. That
was the last time the left did have this
kind of culture of intellectual inquiry
and sort of all of these policy papers
came out. uh there was there was a
really good sort of well aspects of it I
thought were brilliant but this really
good sort of manifestos and blueprints
for government um every sort of
department there was a clear plan for
reationalizing the railways and all
kinds of things so there's real
flourishing and I think I sort of
realized that when the left is ascendant
you get this and when the left is in the
decline in decline in a sort of trough
as it is now um arguably then people
kind of look elsewhere for the kind of
oh what Can we what can we aspire to
what's the planaya you know and you know
Angloism you know Deng inherited a
country of you know sort of a billion
sort of rice farming peasants you know
who being living under a command economy
um and the idea that the kind of
solutions that he proposed can be easily
translated onto the the British case um
is kind of for the birds and I think
there's always there's always a um a
sort of temptation
to look abroad when you when you feel
impotent. You know, you you think we
haven't had a pay rise. Average real
wages, when I say when I say we haven't
had a pay rise, average real wages are
where they are in 2007. We can't build
any infrastructure. There's a housing
crisis. You look across every department
uh in white or prisons, one in one out.
Hospitals, A&E, every anything you like.
Take take your pick. State capacity is
just ruined. And then you kind of see
these sort of short form videos and it's
like the Chinese are building sort of uh
it's kind of castles in the sky, you
know, it's incredible things. Um and and
it's always tempting to think you can
just go right, let's do what this
million strong sort of Leninist
Communist Party does.
Um and I don't think either political or
economic conditions are the same. Also,
we don't I mean I you know I framed this
as a debate because it's better for
YouTube and so I've I've I've almost
sort of structured your article as a bit
more aggressive than it was because it
was sort of friendly criticism really.
Um and I think we almost I mean I think
we basically disagree if I'm honest not
sorry agree if I'm honest. Um because I
I I always push back against people who
think and no one really does anymore but
they used to with sort of thing like
China is this sort of authoritarian hell
hole uh where the CCCP because they're
undemocratic they need to fall. It's
kind of the Paul Mason line and I'm like
>> like they've brought about great develop
like the people there seem to like it.
Uh maybe not everywhere has to look like
the west, right? If if it's not my
position is like if it's not broke,
don't fix it.
>> And they seem to be doing okay.
>> And and and and my position is but I
don't want to be China. Like I think
there's there are some great things
about China. They can build great
railways. You know, they keep their
billionaires in check, but they don't
have freedom of speech. They don't have
elections. I like freedom of speech. I
like elections. We've got we're also
relatively rich and we've got
liberalism. If you can be rich with
liberalism, fab.
>> So like I'm like each to their own.
>> They've done a good thing. We've done a
good thing, but we're kind of flopping
at the moment.
>> So we need a little bit more
>> bigger to build some more
>> I mean, I'm a kind of old-fashioned
unreonstructed unapologetic laborist.
I'm I'm kind of like an allin for labor
guy. while there's a sort of trade union
connection and while we have first pass
the post I'm like whatever the Labour
part is doing the left's job is to kind
of be a part of that project and try and
drag it to a certain sort of leftward
positions that's my thing you're not
going to drag the Labour party to a sort
of Leninist Marxist Leninist or sort of
you know market socialist Angloangist
position in the current conditions and
you're not and you know you know you
mentioned the kind you know there are
levels of authoritarianism right and
there's a kind of view outside there's a
view in some places that basically
modern China is kind of 1950s Soviet or
1930s Soviet Russia during the Great
Terror and I don't think that you know
or North Korea and that's just not the
case, right? Um do they have the kind of
freedoms that we enjoy? like obviously
not but um you know I I live for a short
time in Vietnam which has a very sort of
they're sort of geopolitical enemies
actually Vietnam is a much closer ally
of the United States but they have a
very similar kind of economic system and
political system
>> and it you know being there you realize
that people aren't sort of all cowering
in their sort of homes like sort of
worrying about like when there's going
to be a knock at the door in the way
that sort of you know famous poets and
playwrights and members of the communist
party were in 1930s Moscow you know
that's that's the ideology is so messy,
right? Because the Vietnamese they are
the Vietnamese Communist Party is
probably the closest thing in the world
to the Chinese Communist Party, but the
Vietname Vietnamese Communist Party is
much closer to the Americans, which is
sort of ideologically the complete
opposite, than they are to the Chinese.
>> I was reading the
>> um the biography of of Deng Xiaoing as
an Anglo Dengist. Uh and sort of they're
talking about it's in the period of
rapro between the Americans and the
Soviets. Sure. And Deng is sort of
saying to Henry Kissinger, what the
are you doing? like the Soviets are mad.
Why are you making friends with the
Soviets? You know, because the the
Chinese hate the Soviets more than the
Americans. And the one thing they're
pissed off about is that the Americans
are being too nice to the Soviets.
You're like, you can't really understand
what's going on here through the lens of
like the left versus the right and
communism versus capitalism. There's
something much more complex and much
more, you know, each side is trying to
be pragmatic in its own way and it's
it's messy and they're all trying to
make it work in their own circumstances.
And I just think the whole the framework
of looking at the world through like
there's the imperialist and the
anti-imperialist or there's the left and
there's the right. There's like it's
really complex authoritarian freedom
people. Exactly. The more you read about
actual history. Yeah. Like obviously
this is done from like the American
right in the same degree where they say
we are the axis of liberalism and
democracy and then they go and support
>> Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia yada yada. So
everyone
>> it's not that anyone's ideological
vision of the world is the correct one.
So they're all it's just all much more
make it up as you go along.
>> Yeah. I mean I I sort of broadly take a
sort of realist view of foreign policy
in that way. you know there the
interests are eternal you know and you
know then you got the you you had the
Nixon in China moment and it's called
Nixon in China you know when the when
the Americans went over with Kissinger
and sort of allied themselves uh with
Beijing rather than Moscow but it's
called Nixon in China because Nixon was
able to do that he had the sort of um
the kudos the cache because he was such
a fervent anti-communist but it just
goes to show that kind of sometimes in
these international relations the kind
of um these ideological labels matter
matter far less right because it's in
your interest to be allied with uh say
you know the why is Egypt an ally of the
west because it even though it has sort
of 50,000 political prisoners in and
it's a military dictatorship well
because basically it's it made friends
of Israel it's judged to be well Israel
you know
>> also before that yeah I mean it it was
an ally before that as well I think
wasn't it
>> yeah I think they're the second biggest
recipients of American
>> AIDS American military aids and after
Israel I believe
>> um but it's it's about it's about
competing interests right so whenever
people come back with this kind of
ideological kind of pro-f freedom
arguments on China I'm a bit kind of
like I'm a bit skeptical because I'm
like I don't want to say oh I don't want
to turn around and say well no one's
everyone's past is the same or
everyone's as bad as each other because
as you say sort of they we enjoy
freedoms here today that the Chinese
certainly don't. Um, but we also enjoy
uh close friendships with, you know,
with sort of NATO allies. Look at what
Turkey does to the Kurds. Um,
>> and also the Chinese are richer than
their parents and we're not.
>> I mean, that's what they're I would I
would absolutely kill for the real wage
growth that they've experienced since
the late '7s. Um, because we haven't
seen any in my entire adult working
life. I haven't seen any.
>> They got such tall, shiny buildings and
fast trains.
>> I want it.
>> Uh, let's wrap up there. Uh Johnny B,
thank you so much for coming on.
>> First time co-hosting in the studio. Um
fantastic to be here.
>> Um thank you everyone for tuning in. Um
come back on Monday for another show
from 6:00 p.m. Have a lovely weekend. Um
you've been watching Nvar Media. Good
night.