Video summary
Melissa Armas opens her market review by noting another disappointing sell-off in the QQQs following yet another failed gap-up opening, similar to what occurred the previous day. Although she initially dismissed this morning's excitement as insignificant and predicted it would be nothing more than a "nothingburger," the market did rally into the numbers with an impressive ten-dollar gain after opening at 727 compared to yesterday's close of roughly 718. Despite these technical gains, Armas remained cautious about entering long positions because she believes the underlying momentum is weak; while the QQQs have been attempting to move higher, they consistently fail to sustain that upward trajectory, leading her to conclude that a true bullish breakout has not yet materialized despite the sector's temporary lift from Nvidia's earnings.
The core of Armas' argument centers on skepticism regarding recent economic data and its implications for interest rates. She asserts that today's positive news did not fundamentally change market sentiment or convince skeptics that rate hikes are off the table, noting that those who believe rates should remain high will likely maintain their views regardless of this specific report. With significant data releases scheduled for Thursday morning and consumer sentiment figures arriving later in the week after the open, she emphasizes that September is still too distant to make definitive predictions given all the upcoming variables. Consequently, her current stance remains non-bullish as the market continues to sell off within these gap-up structures rather than confirming a sustained trend higher.
Armas concludes by reiterating her disciplined trading philosophy regarding gaps and why this specific rally does not warrant going long despite appearing bullish on the surface. She explains that simply being in an upward gap is insufficient for entry because the price action immediately after opening shows signs of falling, which signals weakness rather than strength to a professional trader. Her approach involves strictly buying only confirmed bullish gaps and shorting bearish ones, requiring traders to analyze specific market details before committing capital. For those interested in mastering how to correctly identify and trade these gap patterns without getting caught on the wrong side of false breakouts, she invites viewers to enroll in her monthly "Golden Gap" course or contact her directly for more information.
Read the full video transcript
Hello there, everyone, and welcome. This
is Melissa Armas the Stock Watch
reviewing the QQQ's. Again, a nice
uh
sell-off in play here in the market and
another failed gap up just like
yesterday. We dated this morning that I
personally did not think was anything at
all. I thought that this is a
nothingburger, but of course everybody
get excited, do do do do do. This means
they're not going to raise rates, and
the market rallied into the number. Was
it a It was it a real rally? I mean,
it did rally. I mean, we closed it was a
real gap. We technically could have
moved higher. I mean, we closed
yesterday at 718 and change and opened
up at 727 and change. We were up 10
bucks. I didn't go long it. I didn't
believe in it, but we could have gone
higher. Yes, we could have. We could
have continued up. The Q's have been
trying to move up, and they can't seem
to do it. And then there was this whole
other sector that was up today cuz SMCI
had earnings last night, and that was up
in the earnings. So, we didn't do that
either long.
Um there's not much I like long right
now. I'll tell you that much. And the
Q's just look lower. So, we'll see what
happens here really cuz we have a lot of
data Thursday morning, and then one drop
of data, consumer sentiment [snorts]
Friday, but that's after the open. All
the stuff tomorrow's before the open.
So, I have not been bullish on this
market. I really haven't. But I'm
open-minded here. I could decide to go
long any second. I just every time I see
the gap ups, I don't I'm not crazy about
it. I just wasn't crazy about it
yesterday, wasn't crazy about it today.
And when you look at the data, and when
I hear the data, I don't think today
meant anything. I don't think today's
data would change anyone's mind and
anything saying, "Oh, we shouldn't raise
rates."
Really? Then the people that don't think
we should are still going to think that
after today. So, that's my take on that.
So,
September's too far away. There's too
much data and things going on between
now and then. But for now, the market's
selling off. It's selling off in the gap
up. And again, I am not long this, and I
only go long bullish gaps, and only
short bearish gaps, just FYI. So, we'll
see where we go. Big next two days of
data. Good luck everybody. And if you're
interested in learning how to read gaps,
rank gaps, and trade gaps in the correct
direction, you can take my class. It's
called the Golden Gap course. I only
teach it once a month. And again, you
can't go long every bullish gap. Like
this is a bullish gap today. We're up
almost $10 in this. It's not a good
long. How do I know? We're falling. You
want to long this here, you're down. So,
you know what I mean?
So, you you got to look at the
specifics. And that's what I teach in
the class.
If you're interested in more
information, email me at
melissa@thestockswoosh.com.
Have a good day.