Putin "secretly asked" Ukraine to stop striking the oil refineries, promising something in return
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Expert and journalist Ivan Yakovina analyzes President Vladimir Putin's recent televised address, arguing that what appeared to be an interview was actually a strategic message disguised for domestic consumption. Yakovina suggests that the format was designed to avoid alarming Russian citizens while delivering a dual-purpose warning: on one hand, threatening Ukraine with intensified missile attacks and economic destruction if they continue their strikes, and on the other, implicitly pleading for Moscow to halt long-range attacks on Russian industry. He posits that the core of this message was not intended for the Russian public but rather as a direct signal to Ukrainian leadership, urging them to stop targeting oil refineries in exchange for potential relief regarding grain exports.
The journalist contends that Putin has identified Ukraine's economic vulnerability to fuel shortages and is leveraging this weakness to force a change in behavior. While Yakovina acknowledges Putin's claim that halting grain exports would cause Ukraine's economy to collapse, he views this as a gross exaggeration intended to pressure Kyiv into compliance. Instead, the real danger lies within Russia itself; the expert warns that the ongoing destruction of oil refineries is creating a severe fuel shortage in Moscow that cannot be permanently solved by temporary imports from the shadow fleet. As these imports are insufficient to meet demand, queues for gasoline are growing rapidly, signaling an impending crisis that could destabilize the entire Russian economy.
Yakovina predicts that this rising inflation, driven by constant increases in gasoline prices due to fuel scarcity, will eventually become a fatal blow to Putin's regime. He describes inflation as a "black swan" event that will inevitably finish off the current government if the oil industry continues to suffer from Ukrainian strikes. Currently, the momentum of inflation is already gaining speed in Russia, and without the full resumption of normal refinery operations, this economic pressure will mount relentlessly. The expert concludes that while the immediate queues may not be as long as during the peak of the gasoline crisis, they are expanding quickly, and the situation will deteriorate into a serious threat to political stability if the attacks on Russian infrastructure persist.
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Expert and journalist Ivan Yakovina
shared his impressions of Putin's latest
interview. I don't think this is a real
interview. I think it's a televised
address to the nation disguised as an
interview to avoid appearing alarmist.
Because when the president steps up to
the podium and begins saying, "Dear
compatriots, I am addressing you on this
matter." It seems a little scary. To
make it less scary, they put Zarubin on
camera, but Putin actually read the text
of the address to the nation. It only
briefly touched on the Duma elections,
but the bulk of the address was devoted
to Ukraine. In fact, I even believe that
this particular address was addressed
not to the Russian people, but to the
Ukrainian people. On the one hand, Putin
was intimidating the Ukrainian people
saying that hundreds of thousands of
missiles will be flying now, that things
will be much worse for you, that we will
destroy your economy. And on the other
hand, he was hinting and asking that we
stop long-range strikes against our
industry because we are feeling the
consequences and it is unpleasant for
us. Yakovina expressed her opinion.
After this, the journalist added, "He
wanted [music] to send a signal to
Ukraine, as it seems to me, stop these
attacks,
>> [music]
>> give me a break, and then maybe I'll
also consider allowing you to export
grain because he decided that without
grain [music] exports, Ukraine will
perish." He talked about this at length
in this interview saying that if Ukraine
can't export grain, its economy will
collapse. In fact, I think this is a
gross exaggeration. Ukraine's economy
won't collapse as a result, but Putin
believes he's found Ukraine's weak point
and will attack it. Let us recall that
Yakovina named what would destroy Putin
and his regime hinting at the imminent
end. The Russian economy will sooner or
later succumb to the mounting pressure
amid the war, sanctions, and the blows
to the oil industry, said Ivan
Yakovenko.
All of this will lead to inflation,
which will become a black swan for Putin
and his regime. To be honest, the queues
aren't as long now as they were at the
height of the gasoline crisis,
>> [music]
>> but they're growing quickly. And I think
if the hits to refineries continue, the
queues will become very serious again.
For a while, the Russian gasoline market
was saved by massive fuel imports,
[music]
but this is only a temporary measure, as
Russia is unable to import the required
amount of gasoline. To do so, Russia's
entire shadow fleet would have to be
redirected from oil exports to gasoline
imports, Yakovenko said, expressing his
view on the situation in Russia. The
political commentator also predicted an
event that would be fateful for Russia
and Putin. Without the full resumption
of oil refineries, the fuel shortage in
Russia will persist and will thus harm
the Russian economy. Because the
constant rise in gasoline prices caused
by the shortage means a constant rise in
inflation, and inflation, I am
absolutely certain, will one day finish
off Putin's regime. Right now, the
flywheel of inflation is starting to
[music] spin up in Russia, and it seems
impossible to stop it.