Putin's inner circle has been split over the war against Ukraine and dictator fears destabilization
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According to Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, a significant rift has emerged within Vladimir Putin's inner circle regarding the ongoing war against Ukraine. This division is not merely theoretical but is grounded in intercepted Russian documents and intelligence assessments that reveal deep fears of internal destabilization among the regime's leadership. While one faction advocates for continuing the military campaign, another group hopes to end the fighting through negotiations, creating a complex political dynamic that Kyiv's international partners must carefully navigate to understand the true balance of power within the Russian elite.
The primary driver of this internal conflict is the Russian leadership's anxiety over potential domestic collapse and the erosion of their political support base ahead of upcoming elections. Intelligence analysis indicates a noticeable decline in backing for pro-government forces, particularly United Russia, which serves as a clear warning signal to the regime. Furthermore, Putin appears increasingly wary of the growing influence of Russian oligarchs, drawing parallels to the fate of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, leading to specific policy shifts such as new mobilization laws, expanded powers for intelligence agencies, and media reports suggesting the re-privatization of state companies.
This tension has manifested as an open conflict between different power centers within Moscow, specifically between the presidential administration and the security services regarding the regime's survival strategy. On one side, figures like First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko are attempting to convince Putin that political maneuvering can stabilize the situation without drastic escalation. Conversely, the Federal Security Service (FSB), which guards the constitutional system and fights terrorism, insists that only harsh measures and tightening security controls can prevent chaos, creating competing teams with different stakes vying for the dictator's attention.
Ultimately, the split within Putin's circle highlights a critical vulnerability where the fear of internal instability is driving contradictory decisions and strategies. The Russian leadership is caught between the desire to maintain control through force and the need to manage political fallout that could lead to regime change. For Ukraine and its allies, recognizing these opposing viewpoints is essential, as it suggests that the war's trajectory may be influenced more by internal Russian power struggles than by external military pressures alone.
Read the full video transcript
Two groups have formed within Russian
dictator Vladimir Putin's inner circle,
holding opposing views on the war
against Ukraine. Some advocate for its
continuation, while others hope to end
the fighting through negotiations. This
was stated by Vadym Skibitsky, a
representative of the Main Intelligence
Directorate of the Ministry of Defense
of Ukraine, at the YES Annual Meeting
2026 conference, according to RBC
Ukraine. According to Skibitsky, the
conclusions of Ukrainian intelligence
are based not only on assessments of the
political situation, but also on an
analysis of actual intercepted Russian
documents. The GR representative also
stated that the Russian regime is
concerned about the possible
consequences of the war for the domestic
political situation in the country.
During potential negotiation procedures,
it becomes clear that the regime truly
fears internal collapse and
destabilization in the country,
Skibitsky said. Another alarming signal
for the Russian leadership was the
results of an analysis of domestic
political dynamics in Russia. Ukrainian
intelligence monitored the situation in
the country in preparation for the
election process, and these data showed
a noticeable decline in support for
pro-government political forces,
particularly United Russia, which is a
clear signal to the regime. The Main
Intelligence [music] Directorate noted
that Putin fears the growing influence
of Russian oligarchs, remembering the
experience of the Mikhail Khodorkovsky
case. The Russian leadership's concerns
are reflected in specific decisions
being made within the country. Among
these, the intelligence official cited
the adoption of new laws regarding
mobilization, the expansion of the
powers of Russian intelligence agencies
through more stringent security decrees,
and the appearance in Russian media of
reports about the possible
re-privatization of companies and
enterprises. According to Skibitsky,
Kyiv's international partners need to
more clearly understand the balance of
power within the Russian elite.
>> [music]
>> It's important to distinguish between
those members of the Russian leadership
and big business who are interested in
continuing the war and those who
advocate ending it. Previously,
Washington Post reported an open
conflict has arisen between the Russian
presidential administration and the
security forces over the regime's
survival strategy. First Deputy Chief of
Staff of the Presidential Administration
Sergey Kiriyenko and his team are trying
to convince Putin that he can control
the situation in the country through
political maneuvering. Meanwhile, the
country's most influential service for
the protection of the constitutional
system and the fight against terrorism
of the FSB insists that the situation
can only be stabilized through harsh
measures and a tightening of the screws.
These are different approaches,
different stakes, [music] and different
teams competing for Putin's attention.
>> [music]