Kanal13

Putin replaces Gerasimov: dictator does not forgive the general for his Ukrainian failures

Duration: 3:24 441 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

The American think tank CNA, which collaborates with the Pentagon, has identified three potential successors for Valery Gerasimov as the head of Russia's General Staff, citing his upcoming 71st birthday as a significant factor in rumors of his imminent replacement. The report highlights Andrey Mordvichev, commander-in-chief of the ground forces, as the most likely candidate due to his unusually rapid career progression, having advanced from Major General at age 37 to Colonel General by 47 and leading the ground forces by 49. Other contenders include Sergey Kuzovlev, who currently commands the Moscow Military District where the Central Military Apparatus is located, and Alexander Chaiko, commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces, whose candidacy was noted despite a recent assassination attempt on him in August that resulted in the death of his son-in-law. The analysts' conclusions are grounded in a study of Russian officer career trajectories, revealing that since 1997, every new chief of the General Staff has held a senior position within a military district prior to their appointment and possessed relevant experience within the General Staff or Ministry of Defense. The typical age for such an appointment falls between 55 and 62, usually at the rank of Colonel General, followed by a swift promotion to General of the Army. While Mordvichev stands out for his accelerated rise and leadership roles across all four military districts formed in 2010, Chaiko is seen as following Gerasimov's traditional path more closely, having served twice as deputy chief and commanded key units like the 20th Guards Army and the Eastern Military District. Sergei Kuzovlev represents another possibility despite being 58, an age considered older for this role, though his extensive background commanding troops in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine, along with his service in three different military districts, keeps him in contention. The report emphasizes that the ongoing war against Ukraine has drastically accelerated personnel turbulence within the Russian Army, causing the average tenure in senior command positions to plummet from 4.1 years between 2011 and 2021 to just 1.4 years between 2022 and 2025. This frequent turnover of commanders is a direct consequence of the conflict's intensity and the need for rapid adjustments in leadership structures. Ultimately, the CNA analysis suggests that while the current chief of the General Staff may step down within the next year or two due to age and performance pressures related to Ukrainian failures, the transition could impact military effectiveness. The study warns that such frequent changes in high-level command may reduce the overall efficiency of troop command and control, a critical concern given the already strained resources and operational challenges faced by the Russian military. As the institution navigates this period of instability, the selection of a new leader will likely depend on balancing traditional career paths with the urgent demands of the current geopolitical landscape.

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The American think tank CNA, which works with the Pentagon, has named three possible candidates to replace Valery Gerasimov as chief of the General Staff of Russia. The report notes that the current chief of the General Staff will turn 71 this year, an unusually old age for such a position. This fuels rumors that he could be replaced within the next year or two. CNA names the most likely candidates as commander-in-chief of the ground forces Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, commander of the Moscow Military District Sergey Kuzovlev, and commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces Alexander Chaiko. Notably, on August 1st, an assassination attempt was made on Chaiko in central Moscow, resulting in the death of his son-in-law. The analysts based their conclusions on a study of the career trajectories of Russian officers and previous chiefs of the General Staff. Since 1997, each new chief of the General Staff held a senior position in a military district before their appointment and had experience within the General Staff or the Ministry of Defense. The typical age for appointment is between 55 and 62, usually at the rank of Colonel General, followed by rapid promotion to General of the Army. CNA considers 50-year-old Andrey Mordvichev the most likely candidate. His career has developed unusually rapidly. He was promoted to Major General at 37, Colonel General at 47, and commanded the ground forces at 49. Mordvichev also held leadership positions in all four military districts formed in 2010, including commanding the Central Military District. According to CNA, Alexander Chaiko largely follows Gerasimov's career path prior to his appointment as chief of the General Staff. He served twice as deputy chief of the general staff and commanded the 20th Guards Army and the Eastern Military District. At 55, [music] Cheko is at the ideal age for appointment within the next two to three years. Sergei Kuzovlev currently commands the Moscow Military District, where the Central Military Apparatus is located. As CNA notes, this district has historically served as a springboard to senior positions in the general staff. Kuzovlev rose through the ranks of the 58th Guards Army and the 20th Guards Army, served in three military districts, and commanded troops in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine. At 58, he is considered an older candidate, but his appointment remains a possibility. CNA also emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has dramatically accelerated personnel turbulence in the Russian Army. The average tenure in senior command positions has decreased from 4.1 years in 2011 to 2021 to 1.4 years in 2022 to 2025. Analysts estimate that such frequent commander turnover may reduce the effectiveness of troop command and control.