Video summary
Political strategist Abbas Gallyamov warns that Vladimir Putin faces an urgent need to secure his legacy by finding a successor and retiring before he suffers the same violent fate as Nicholas II or Slobodan Milošević. In an interview with Yevgeny Kiselev, Gallyamov suggests that while it is difficult to imagine Putin listening to public demands for change, there remains a possibility of a controlled transition of power if orchestrated correctly. This exit strategy would likely involve framing the departure as part of a serious national mobilization aimed at ending the war and loosening restrictive measures such as internet blocks, potentially opening doors for sanctions relief from figures like Donald Trump or attracting new investments to stabilize Russia's economy.
To facilitate this difficult transition without direct resignation, Gallyamov proposes that Putin could leverage constitutional reforms to transform Russia into a parliamentary republic where he retains the title of president but shifts to a ceremonial role similar to the Queen of England or presidents in Israel and Germany. However, regarding specific demands like an immediate air ceasefire, the expert argues it is highly unlikely for Putin to agree even under pressure because doing so would contradict his core identity as what he describes mentally and behaviorally rather than just by occupation—a gangster leading an organized crime group. For such a figure, compromising or showing weakness is viewed not as sanity but as fatal defeatism that results in the loss of social status, akin to a shepherd being reduced to cattle.
Gallyamov further explains Putin's stubbornness through his unique mentality, noting that while ordinary politicians might adapt under pressure, gangster logic dictates that one must always push, bully, and coerce rather than yield. He points out that Lavrov's inclusion on the United Russia list serves as a deliberate display of this intransigence to both domestic audiences and the world, intended to create an image of unbreakable patriotism so strong that opponents feel forced to concede territory like Donbas simply because they cannot break his resolve. Ultimately, Gallyamov concludes that unless Putin can overcome these deep-seated behavioral traits associated with organized crime leadership, he risks a dramatic downfall where giving in is perceived as the end of one's existence within their own social hierarchy.
Read the full video transcript
Putin urgently needs to find a
successor, introduce him to the Russian
people, and retire, as this is his way
to save himself, said Abbas Gallyamov.
If the Kremlin leader fails to do so,
there's a risk he'll suffer the same
fate as Nicholas II or Milosevic. The
political strategist expressed his view
on Putin's remaining prospects for
salvation in an interview with Yevgeny
Kiselev on YouTube. I find it hard to
imagine Putin listening to the people.
Let's see. Maybe he's not his own enemy
after all, because it's better to leave
quietly than to leave the way Nicholas
II did, for example. He could still try
to organize a controlled transition of
power. That's still possible. A
successor needs to be brought to power,
but it needs to be done under the guise
of a very serious mobilization. That is,
ending the war, loosening the screws,
>> [music]
>> ending the internet block, and so on,
explained Putin's former speechwriter.
In exchange for this, we could negotiate
with Trump for sanctions relief, get
money, and maybe even attract some
investment. In exchange, we could try to
arrange a way out of this situation, if
not through direct resignation, then,
for example, through a new
constitutional reform, where Russia
would transform, so to speak, into a
parliamentary republic. And he would
remain president, but the president of a
parliamentary republic, like the Queen
of England, who reigns but does not
rule, like the president of Israel or
Germany, Gallyamov added. The expert
also responded to the question of why
Lavrov is at the top of the United
Russia list. I think this is Putin's way
of demonstrating his intransigence to
the country and the world. So, do you
think I'll just squeal and start
adapting to this public demand of yours?
No, I won't. That's Lavrov for you.
That's patriotism [music] for you. He
needs to achieve such an effect that
everyone will throw up their hands in
disappointment and say, "It's [music] no
use. He's so stubborn. We'd rather give
him Donbas." Abbas Gallyamov explained
why he believes Putin won't agree to an
air ceasefire. "I find it hard to
imagine Putin agreeing to it after he's
already publicly commented on it a
couple of times for the entire country
and the entire world to see. He said we
won't agree to it because it's not for
us, but it's beneficial for Ukraine
because their strikes are weaker. By
proposing such a ceasefire, they're
begging us for mercy, but there will be
no mercy. Let them surrender." The
political scientist explained Putin's
true nature. "It will be perceived as if
he's making this decision under pressure
and making decisions under pressure
isn't Putin's style. I just released a
video on my YouTube channel explaining
that Putin is a politician only in form
and by occupation, but mentally and
behaviorally, he's a gangster, the head
of an organized crime group. In the late
1990s, when he returned to the USSR, he
adopted this gangster style and has been
replicating it ever since. For an
ordinary politician, compromising under
pressure is normal, a sign of sanity,
but for a gangster, it's weakness. You
can't be sane within the confines of
gangster logic. You have to pressure,
shove, bully, and coerce. And if you
can't do that, you're a sucken. That's
the Putin mentality," Gallyamov added.
The expert also noted, "Theoretically,
of course, a person can overcome their
composure. If a person is even slightly
sane, they can change their behavior
under pressure, but for bandits, this is
unthinkable. They'd rather die than give
in. Their whole world hinges on the idea
that you can't give in. Once you give
in, that's it. You're a sufferer. After
that, you lose your social status. It's
like a shepherd becoming a cow. I'd be
surprised if that happens.