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Putin has postponed deadline for seizing Donbas 15 times since war began; world laughs at his army

Duration: 3:43 492 transcript words EN summary

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Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued fifteen different deadlines for the complete capture of the Donbas region, yet the General Staff has failed to meet a single one of them. Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), relying on Western intelligence and Ukrainian data, highlight that initial promises made in August of last year predicted the collapse of the Ukrainian front by late 2024 and the full seizure of Donetsk by mid-2025. However, these timelines have been repeatedly pushed back; sources from the Financial Times and Bloomberg indicate that deadlines were extended to fall 2026 and winter respectively, while current assessments suggest the Kremlin's military goals remain disconnected from reality as the war drags on. The discrepancy between promised objectives and actual progress is stark, with Russian forces currently controlling only about 79.89% of the Donetsk region, amounting to approximately 21,170 square kilometers according to ISW estimates. While the army managed to capture a small fraction of Ukrainian territory in previous years, the pace of the offensive has drastically slowed this year after briefly reaching record speeds of 15 to 70 meters per day. Recent data shows that Russian troops increased their controlled territory by only 88 square kilometers compared to the previous month and even suffered a net loss of 11 square kilometers by the end of May, despite launching a record number of assaults that increased by 60% during the winter and early spring. Military insiders within the General Staff have begun to acknowledge that Putin's goals are unrealistic, with some believing the conflict for Donbas will extend into 2027 rather than concluding by the end of 2026. Despite Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure such as refineries and ports, the situation on the front lines has not fully shifted in Kyiv's favor, according to experts like Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Center. While Ukrainian troops actively defend most areas, Russian forces are compensating by concentrating combined arms units in priority sectors like Donetsk, yet their ground assault tactics have remained virtually unchanged, relying heavily on infantry infiltration where groups sometimes consist of only one or two individuals. The battlefield has become increasingly dangerous for all parties involved as the kill zones where drones destroy infantry continue to expand, making movement and supply lines perilous. This stagnation in offensive capabilities, coupled with the inability to achieve strategic breakthroughs despite increased assault frequency, suggests that the Russian military is struggling to adapt its tactics to modern warfare conditions. As the war enters a prolonged phase, the gap between the high-level political deadlines set by the Kremlin and the grim reality on the ground continues to widen, casting doubt on the feasibility of capturing the entire Donbas region in the foreseeable future.

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Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the military 15 deadlines for the complete capture of Donbas, but the General Staff generals have failed to meet each of them. This is according to analysts at the US-based Institute for the study of war, citing Western intelligence data and Ukraine's main intelligence directorate. According to Reuters sources, back in August of last year, the army command promised Putin that the Ukrainian front would collapse by October-November, and the Donetsk region would finally be completely captured by the middle of the fourth year of the war. In the spring of 2026, according to Financial Times sources, the deadline was pushed back to the fall of this year. In the summer, according to Bloomberg, the military promised that Donbas [music] would be completely under Russian control by winter. However, the Russian army currently controls only 79.89% of the Donetsk region's territory, >> [music] >> 21,170 square kilometers, according to ISW estimates. The Kremlin's military goals continue to remain out of touch with reality, the Institute's analysts believe. Last year, the Russian army managed to capture only 0.8% of Ukraine's territory, and by 2024, [music] only 0.6%. Moreover, in certain areas, the pace of the Russian advance has set new records in more than 100 years of modern warfare, 15 to 70 meters per day. This year, the offensive has practically stalled, according to Deep State. Russian troops increased the territory under their control by only 88 square kilometers, >> [music] >> compared to 57 square kilometers the previous month, and ended May with a net loss of 11 square kilometers, despite a record number of meat assaults, which increased by 60% compared to the winter and early spring. >> [music] >> Given the current pace of the offensive, Russian troops will likely fail to capture Donbas by the end of 2026 and possibly never, according to SW. Some General Staff military personnel also consider Putin's goals unrealistic and believe the war for Donbas will continue into 20 27. Sources close to the Ministry of Defense told Bloomberg. Despite a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that have hit refineries, ports, and marketplace warehouses, it's premature to say that Kyiv has managed to turn the situation on the front lines to its advantage, says Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia in Berlin. Ukrainian troops are actively defending in most areas, while Russian forces are compensating for this by increasing the number of combined arms units against priority sectors, >> [music] >> primarily Donetsk, notes Massicot. Meanwhile, Russian ground assault tactics in 2026 have remained virtually unchanged, [music] she emphasizes. Infantry infiltration remains the primary method and assault groups sometimes consist of only one or two people. >> [music] >> Meanwhile, the kill zone, where drones destroy infantry, is expanding for both sides, making movement and supply dangerous for everyone. >> [music]