PS60 Swing Trading Orientation Training!

Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. >> All right, guys. Uh, good morning everybody. As as all you guys know, um these webinars are are very laidback. There's no major presentation. I didn't spend up hours putting together a presentation. It's very interactive. I encourage people to ask questions. The last thing I want to do here is sit here for 2 hours talking about buy here, sell there. It's it's not exactly the most uh interesting topic in the world. Um so we make it very interactive. We'll try to cover as much as we can. uh you know about an hour and a half. Uh hour and a half should get it done. I could probably knock this out in 20 minutes. Um and then I have to and then I'm going to go see my son and I'm sure the rest of you guys the last thing you want to do is sit here for 3 hours uh listening to me talk about supply uh and demand. All right. So let's talk about right let's talk about it. So, you know, again, when you are um when you are a brand new a brand new trader or at least a brand new um participant in the stock market, you have to figure out what that you know, what kind of trader you are. And we've we've kind of spoke about this for for years. Um you know, based on your personality, based on your uh experience level, your account size, all that stuff that comes along with it, you got to figure out, you know, what type of trader do I do I want to be? You know, what do I want to trade? you know, long trade futures, uh, options, equities, you know, Bitcoin and so forth and so on. Again, no judgment. Uh, but again, just like, you know, BaskinRobins, there's 31 flavors and 31 flavors you can all try. And I always encourage everybody to try everything before uh you find your your favorite pistachio, peanut butter, strawberry mix, right? Not in that order, but you get my point. So, there's a major difference, right? There's a major difference uh when people finally get to that crossroad and say to yourself, well, do I want to be a day trader or do I want to be a swing trader or do I want to be an investor or what why is an investor different than a swing trader? Well, we'll explain to you very very quickly. So, let's use the day trading aspect out of the way for a second, right? It's a you know, it's kind of what we do here uh pretty much every day. Uh we have control of risk, we have control of our intervals, and you are leading with your shield, not with your chin. Swing trading or what we'll we'll define as overnight position trading is the complete opposite. Okay? You are leading with your chin, not your shield. And the reason why I say that is because intraday when I'm putting on a bounce and it's heavy, right, and I see that level compromise, I'll get out and I'll lose 3040 cents. The problem is when you're longing the stock overnight and Donald Trump decides to, you know, to tax um, you know, Indonesia by 275% for tariffs, your stock might get might lose 5% at the open, right? And then you are not in control. you are now in panic mode because well technically your stock is broken what do I do next right we'll get know we'll get to that uh in a second uh swing trading is completely different than investing right investing is I like Apple do you like Apple I like Apple I think Apple is going to be a 500 in the next 5 years great let's buy Apple doesn't matter if the stock goes down 30 points I love Apple that's an investor a swing trader is a dynamic by definition it's a dynamic day trader that is proactive in their shortterm decisionmaking and what do I mean by that okay number one what the hell is a swing trader a swing trader is is defined and again everybody has a little bit diff different definitions but I have mine a swing trader is anybody who is willing to take risk overnight that's it that's all it is as long as you are you're at the close and you're in your position That is defined as a dynamic swing because you're swinging the ability to presume that the stock keeps on moving in that direction because technical analysis is giving you a green light. Investors, like I said a few minutes ago, is I like Apple. Okay, that's fantastic. Here's what we know about swing trading, right? Here's what I know about swing trading for many, many years. Number one, compared to day trading, right? Compared to day trading, when I'm putting on a position, I know 80% of the time it's going to end in two ways. I'm either going to make money off the off the trade or it's going to be break even. I'm going to make money and break even. I think make money and break even are the same category, right? Because again, you're still your your money's intact. So, we're going to use break even for this discussion. You know, obviously you could break it down in a million ways, but you're going to use break even, right? Or potential profits 80% of the time. You control the risk, right? I control the risk. You control the risk. Swing trading, and I know this for fact, okay? If you are a good swing trader, you're going to make money somewhere between 35 and 42 43% of the time. Now, before you start freaking out and oh my god, how could I how how can I get involved with something that's uh 3540% and that's if you're a good swing trader. Well, I'm going to explain. So, here's where we start the webinar. And again, I could literally knock this sucker out in 20 minutes. But again, let's get freaky up in here because it's Sunday, right? Cheers. I got my coffee. So, let me explain. There's difference of losing money 35, excuse me. There's there's there's a big difference between losing money 65% of the time recklessly versus losing 65% of the time really, really well. Now, you're going to turn around and say, "Well, what the hell are you saying, Dan? If I lose money 65% of the time, that's terrible." It sounds terrible, but it's actually not. And here's kind of where we begin the webinar. Okay, number one, you don't randomly just buy something and go, "Yo, I think this thing looks good." We all know that, right? Anybody who's been here, and again, all you guys know me, so I don't have to kind of reiterate what the PS60 theory is all about. We know there is a dynamic for a stock to go higher, and we know for there's a dynamic for a stock to go lower, right? We all know this. So, I don't have to break down exactly why a stock is going to go higher. You guys know above supply it's good, below supply is bad. Here is where the 35 to 40% success rate comes into really really big play. Okay. And guys, start kind of start jotting notes and I'm sure I I don't know how it works. Maybe Kenyon will translate everything into AI. I'm sure everything will be uh translated and there'll be notes and all that good stuff. But just from from like you know from the point of just kind of writing important things down. Here's the difference between uh a high value 35% success rate versus a very low value 3540% success rate. Okay. Number one, and this is the way we do it. I do it. You know, my guys do it. We do it. Right? When we're putting on a swing, we're using the power mentality approach. Now, what is that approach? I've been talking about this for years and years and years. You know, trading and Warren Buffett does have a little bit of a correlation. And you're saying, "What the hell are you saying? Warren Buffett has nothing to do with trading." Well, it kind of does. Warren Buffett, right, when he's investing, and we're going to use the word investing now, okay, he's just not waking up every day and turning around and going, I'm going to buy CocaCola. And then the next day goes, you know what looks really, really good? McDonald's looks hot here. You know what looks great the next day? Lows. Wow. Look at the lows chart, bro. Hat backwards. Warren Buffett, right? He's very methodical at what he does. Whatever his fundamental approach is, that's his fundamental approach. The way I do it, right? The way the way my let's just use the word I. I'm not going to be going through it. The way I do it, I kind of use the Warren Buffett approach of I'm not investing every day. There's no possible way you could put on a swing trade every single day. I think if you're doing it correctly off intervals that we're about to talk about, I think in a solid market, you're probably putting on about five swings a month. Okay? I'm talking about a solid market, trending, low volatility, solid. In a euphoric market, which again, we've we've already witnessed, right? maybe that number doubles just because it's an outlier event. So when you have an outlier event, you're going to go a little bit more dynamic in that outlier event. And then we're going to talk about there's ways that you will never put on a swing trade, right? You should under any circumstances again we're we're that for the point of this discussion we're speaking on the long side and the short side are completely different, right? So we all know this. So my approach is from a mental aspect of it, think Warren Buffett, right? Think Warren Buffett in the very methodical approach into your entries, but act as a worldclass day trader mentality of protecting and identifying your risk. Everybody understand what I'm saying by that? So when we talk about that is the highest value setups. The last thing you want to do is take that 35 40% success rate and just put random entries in. And this is why I say if you can get one good swing entry a week, that's good, guys. That's good. I mean, that's really, really good. So, here is kind of where we develop our game plan for being a dynamic, right? A dynamic money manager with the patience and thoroughess of Warren Buffett. Okay? My favorite setup, and you guys know this because you guys have been with me, some of you guys have been with me for 17 years. My favorite setup, whether it's swing, day trading, flipping bottle caps, I don't care what it is, right? is anything that reclaims the 50-day moving average. Okay, anything I, you know, it could be AMC, okay? Other than AMC, anything that reclaims the 50-day moving average is going to give you the highest probability of success. Here's the downside, right? What's the downside? You just don't get 50-day rebounds every single day. Correct? If you are a really dynamic, disciplined trader, swing trader, whatever the hell you want to label yourself, if you just stick to the 50-day breaks, you are going to make a lot of money, okay? Because that is the the conception, right? The conception of a trend. I just have I just have the Q's on here just strictly by accident. So, we're going to use the Q's as an example, right? We're going to use the Q's as an example. So, the 50-day moving average, right? Everybody knows, very, very important. What happens when you get the 50-day moving average? The the seas open up, food tastes better, you get taller, right? You get stronger, you get more intelligent, get more handsome, you get more beautiful. World is good. Above the 50-day moving average is good. When a stock closes above the 50-day, and that's the most important part, folks. That is the most important part of being a dynamic swing trader. You need to see the close, right? You might want to enter at the open, right? You might want to enter, oh, Dan, look, look, look, Tesla's about to reclaim the 50-day moving average. I GOT LONG AND IT went up $3 and now it closed down eight. Because that's what Tesla does, son. Right? So, write this down, guys. The highest probability on any swing is the 50-day moving average. There is no debate, right? There is no debate. If you're reclaiming back the 200 day moving average, that means you are probably in a nasty dynamic sell cycle probably for about 6 months to a year. So, we're not going to use the the 200 day moving average as any type of barometer because that means the market has sucked really really bad for swing traders for about a year. So, we're going to use that out of the out of the way. Okay, so write this down. The highest probability entry for a swing position is the 50-day moving average. Right? That's it. That's literally it. If you want to be a dynamic, successful investor slashtrader slwing trader slash anything you want to call yourself, that 50-day break is massive. Okay, the Q's closed. And that's the most important part, folks. That's why I tell, you know, we we used to take non-traditional swings in the webinar. I used to tell guys, guys, you don't need to panic into the trade. It just has to close, right? So, if the 50-day moving average on a stock is $50 and it closes 4870, no, no, the next day it has to confirm. It has to close above. That's why you never have to panic into a trade, right? It's a swing. If you plan on being in the stock for 1 to two to 3 days to 4 weeks, for 4 months, for a year, it has to close. So why are you panicking into the trade, right? If the 50-day is 50, god darn it, let it close at 50, not 4930, not 49.80, let it close at 50. Believe me, you're you're not going to miss the trade. There's no way. If you plan on being in the stock for multiple days, weeks, months, it's impossible to miss it, right? Eventually, it has to close, right? Doesn't it have to close above the 50 eventually? So, write that down. Any swing trade that is officially consummated. Great word, right? And it's ready to go and it's a green light, it has to close above the 50-day. Okay, that's check mark number one. That's your first check mark. It's undebatable. You don't have to discuss it with anybody. That is the golden goose, right? That is the golden goose. Number two, when do you not put on that trade that closed above the 50-day moving average? Here is where it gets tricky, but this is where when your odds of success becomes better. So, we've been in this teeter totter stupid market, right? Teeter totter stupid market. We've lost the 50-day. We've reclaimed the 50-day. We've lost the 50-day. We reclaimed the 50-day. Right now, if somebody told me ahead of time, hey, the market's going to reclaim a month ago, but don't worry, your position is going to be fine a month later because it's going to reclaim it. I'd say, yo, no problem. Let me just keep my positions because, well, we have a fortune teller on on our hands, and we all know them. The market's going to reclaim back the 50-day moving average in two weeks. Don't worry, everything is all good. The problem is we don't have that, right? We don't have that. So, when do you pass up a really good trade, right? And it sucks, right, guys? It sucks. Dan, look how good it looks. It looks great. It looks fantastic. Yo. Yo, that [ __ ] does look good, son. Yo, that looks so good, right? Look how good it looks. Ah, guys, the cues are below the 50-day moving average. I I can't do it. I can't do it. But, Dan, it looks so good. I can't, guys. I can't do it. I I want to do it. I can't do it. If there's no money involved, I'll do it, right? I can't do it. I can't do it. We're below the 50-day moving, but it looks so good, Dan. Okay, so here's here's my answer to Right. Here's my answer to you. Is it possible this stock is an outlier and it works? Of course, YOU GOT A 50/50 SHOT. THINK about that. You got a 50/50 shot of any stock going up or down the next day. If a stock closes above the 50-day moving average, sure, the probability does go higher that the stock is going to go higher. But what happens again if we are below the 50-day moving average and and and again we'll we'll we'll tackle this in a second. It does matter what group your stock belows to. So for example, if Microsoft is above the 50-day moving average, but the Q's are a second close building below the 50-day moving average, guys, there's a really really strong probability, right, that the Q's gap down 1%. You think Microsoft is not going to lose the 50-day moving average overnight? Right? Think think about it's it's common sense, right? It's common sense. So, you're sitting there and you say to yourself, "But oh, damn. But look at all the option flow. They're romantic. Look, they're romantic. $30 out of the money WITH TWO DAYS LEFT. THEY'RE ROMANTIC." YEAH. Ask the Tesla guys about romance. They love romance, right? They watch the Hallmark Network, Life Life Life Network. They're romantic. Betting as soon as there's an uptick, betting $70 out of the money with two days left, right? They love it. They can't get enough of it until well until it clos until the market closes below the 50-day moving average and you turn around and speaking of Tesla, right? You turn around looking at Tesla, you're like, "Oh, wait a minute. How can the stock dripped 30 points off the 50-day moving average in three days?" Yeah, that's the whole point, right? That's the whole point. everything, folks, for for your swing, right? For your swing to actively give you a higher probability success, everything needs to align. Um, the ETF or the index or the benchmark that your swing because remember swing trading is everything, right? You could be looking at retail. Retail has great stocks to swing, right? As you can see, retail has great, not Walmart, but retail in general has been having some pretty good moves. So, if you are long retail, you turn around and say, "Well, what's the index? What's the barometer? What's the What is the trail?" I think it's the RTH's, correct? I'm pretty sure it's the RTH's, right? It's the RTH's, right? I'm pretty sure it's the RTH, guys, can somebody confirm? I'm I'm pretty sure retail is the RTH's. I'm I'm pretty sure. Right. So, you look at the stock, you look at the stock and you turn around, you go, "Wow, target looks so good, but the RTHs are below the 50-day moving average." I'm just using, you know, just using an example. How can I possibly be long target, right? How can I possibly long target? And there's an answer to that, right? There's an answer to that. If you like a stock and it looks really, really good, right? and it [clears throat] looks really really good and you just say I just Dan I I can't take it. I'm getting the option flow of the stock. The stock just reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Right. Thank you, sir. The stock just reclaimed the 50-day moving average, but the trailing benchmark looks like crap. There's an answer to that. And what you can do and this is where we talk about power investing or power swing trading or whatever you want to call it, make cool words out of it, right? This is where again you are putting on your Warren Buffett hat of being particular in your entries, but you're using your day trading mentality and day trading risk on to guide you through the trade. So if I wanted to be long target, right? If I wanted to be long target and the RTH's are above the 50-day and they're mirroring target, I have no problem, right? I have no problem. I have zero issue in the trade. If the 50-day moving average is 140 bucks and it closes above 140 bucks and the RTH is already above the 50-day moving average, I'm good, right? I'm good. I have a clear head. The trend is going with the whole group. My stock just reclaimed the moving average. We're getting call buying. I am in with the stock. I'm long, right? I'm long. I got no issues, right? That's the easiest part, right? That's the easiest part about putting on a swing trade when everything aligns. The other aspect is, well, target looks great, the RTH's look like [ __ ] Excuse my French, right? What do I do? I really like the trade. And there's a very easy answer to that as well. Okay. So, you can go long target as long as it closes above the 50-day moving average. And what you can do is you can short the you can short the trailing benchmark, which is the RTH's, right? So, if the market gets pulled, right? If the market gets pulled, then you are protected, right? You are protected. And as long as target continues to close above the 50-day moving average, you are keeping right, you're keeping your hedge, right? You're keeping your hedge. The problem is if target loses, right? If target, excuse me, I said it backwards. If target continues to be long over the 50-day moving average and it keeps on building, you you continue to keep that hedge just overnight, not throughout the day, but overnight. As soon as target starts losing the 50-day moving average, but but it doesn't take out the previous day's low, then you have to put on your hedge, right? And every single wash out, every single wash out, you keep on covering your hedge until target loses the previous day's low. If it loses the previous day's low, you don't want to be in the trade anyway. You follow what I'm saying, guys? So if the trade goes wrong, you're you have very very limited damage because two things happen. You are hedged with your position, right? You're hedged with your position and your stock has not taken out the previous day's low. If it takes out the previous day's low, the trade is over. Okay, the trade is over. So, if Target reclaimed $154 on the 50-day moving average, and the previous day it went from 154 to 158, but the but the benchmark looks like complete ass and the target loses the 50-day on the close. You have to get rid of your position. You have to until the stock reclaims it back and it could reclaim it back the next day, right? It's over. It's it's the thesis is dead, right? We we see countless times, right? just just to use the RTHs. You see countless times they reclaim back the 50-day moving average, they run and then they lose it again, right? And then they lose it again only to reclaim it back to run only to lose it again, right? So it happens all the time. Okay? It happens all the time. So the way you want to do it, okay? And again, I'm a big consumer cyclical guy. Um there's a big difference between swing trading, consumer cyclicals, retail versus, you know, versus uh technology, right? Technology is a lot more aggressive. Um there's many more factors that move uh technology stocks that other, you know, that other groups are probably not um affected as much. These days everything moves technology. Uh intraday headlines moves technology. Oil moves uh technology. Go uh go gold moves technology. Uh the yields are moving up and down moves technology. Like literally great question. I'll answer that in a second. Right. So the most important part is again let's kind of re review really really quickly. The highest probability trade that you will ever put on on a swing is the first close above the 50-day. You see, first close above the 50-day, right? First close above the 50-day moving average. Next day gaps up, right? Next day gaps up, never gives it back, right? Never gives back the 50-day and it keeps on going. So, the first close above the 50-day moving average on the RTH's at 257 gave you a move, you know, to 274 in 5 days because it never gave it back. You see, guys, guys, everybody see it? It never gave it back. Once it gets back above the 50-day moving average, as long as it doesn't give it back, your trade is solid, right? Your trade is solid. the the easiest exit, the e the absolute easiest exit is wait for your stock to close below the 50-day. As long as it keeps on building above the 50-day moving average, the trade is active. Uh the thesis is intact and you're probably going to get a move. Now, if it closes back on the 50-day moving average and you want to feel a little bit of insurance, short against your equity. Okay, now FJ has a great question. Well, Dana, how do you short, right? Like, how do you short the proper way? Um, after No, the first close, Randy. The first close. So, if the 50-day is 256 and it closes 257, you you're you're you're you're putting you're long overnight on that first close. It doesn't have you're not looking for that first big gap. You're looking for the first close. You're looking you're literally looking for the first close. Usually, usually the a stock closes usually a stock closes on the 50-day moving average relatively within 50 cents to a dollar uh within the 50-day moving average once they're reclaimed. It's not going to be like 7 8 $9 above the 50-day. That first close above the 50-day is literally going to be above the 50-day. So, you don't have to worry about you don't have to worry about uh No, no, no. you're you're entering you're you're and that's that's another thing I I'll I'll answer that in a second. I just want to uh tackle uh Ry's issues first. Um so you're literally close you're literally entering the position the first close. So So Randy, I'll give you a perfect example, right? Let's just say in this lifetime or the next. It'll never happen. But let's just for for shits and giggles, you see Tesla, you see Tesla, right? Got rejected off the 50-day moving average. It got rejected off the 50-day moving average right now is 360. You see that, Randy? 360. Let's say Tesla closes 361, right? 361 and reclaims a 50-day moving average. That would be your long overnight, right? That would be a long overnight because the next your next probability is 366, 370, 372, 378, so forth and so on. So, it physically needs to close above the 50-day moving average. Randy, you see how it got rejected here two weeks ago, right? You see how this is why the 50-day is so important. You see how it rejected here the 50-day and just died. Okay, so a stock need like Tesla would physically need the stock to close above 36061. Like look at Google, right? Look at Google as well, right? Look at Google as well. You see you see what h you see what you see what happens here, right? You see how Google got rejected off the 50-day moving average on August the 24th, right? Rejected, right? Rejected it. It physically needs to close above the 50-day moving average. So, the 50-day moving average right now on Google, let's just call it 350, right? Let's just call it 350. The first close, we don't care. That's the whole point. We don't care. I mean, look, if you want to go if you want to take a deeper dial, Neil, if you want to take a deeper dial, right, like a deeper dial and say, I want to enter it above the 50-day above the the entire high of the range, then yes, then you would turn around and go, well, you know what? Let me let me wait for 35160. You see what I'm saying? But you just need the physical close above the 50-day moving average. Now, again, you might not want to put on your whole position, right? You you might like what Neil just asked. You say to yourself, "Well, Dan, the stock still hasn't taken out the top of the range. Maybe the more prudent way to do it is maybe put on 25% of your position above the 50-day on the initial close and then add the rest when it takes out the top of the range. You could do that as well." Guys, remember swing trading is not day trading. I don't need all my liquidity on one price, right? Remember, you're just your your job is to make sure that the trend of the stock has been confirmed. So, if you're looking to buy 500 shares of Google, right? You might say, "All right, it closed 350, right? Closed 350 first close. You know, let me buy 100 shares, right? Let me buy 100 shares." The next day, right? The next day, the stock takes out 350160, right? 35160. You say, "All right, we know that's a natural pivot. Your day trading hat just went on." You turn around and say, "Look, that's a natural pivot. Let me add another 100 shares." Right? Let me see another 100 shares. Now, the stock starts rising 353, 352, right? And you say to yourself, "All right, let me add my last piece, right? Let me add my last piece into dips, right? Into 60-minute dips." And as long as it closes above continues to close above that 350 350 351 you could build the position, right? You can you can literally build the position because the whole point is if you catch the entire move, right? Your first you measure potential is now 358, right? So you don't need every you don't you don't need one print. It's like when I'm day trading, yeah, I'm trying to get the liquidity, right? I'm trying to get like if I'm trading like CRM, which would be very rare, but if I'm trading CRM and I go, well, wait a minute. CRM the 50-day moving average is 190, okay? But there's 200 shares at 190. Well, yeah, there's no there's no reason for me, you know, there's no reason for me to turn around and go, if I want to swing this, just start sitting there 190 accumulating stock. I'll see how the stock trades. You know, if the whole day the stock is trading 190, 191, 192, 190 and a half and say, "All right, at some point maybe start buying some, right? If my idea is it's confirming the thesis, uh, it's starting a swing trade, it's giving me the green light, there's option flow in the stock, all right, let's start accumulating, right? And by 2:00, if it continues to build, right, continues to build uh over that level, you know, maybe start getting a little bit aggressively." Uh, yeah, absolutely. Again, especially with with especially with thinner names, right, with thinner name, like I I give an example, right? Appaloosa. Appaloosa, I don't know how much money they have under management. David Ter, if he's accumulating CRM, how the hell is this guy and if he wants to buy a million shares, how the hell is he going to buy a million shares in one day of CRM? That damn thing trades a 100 share lots. Think about it, Ryan. If I if I'm if I'm an analyst for Appalooa and I turn to David Sepher, I go I go, "David, I love CRM. It needs to close above $150, right? It needs to close $150." And I go, "How many how many?" He and he's saying to himself, he talks to his uh risk guys and blah blah blah. He goes, "All right, I want to be long 1.5 million shares of the stock." Right? How is he going to get filled on 1.5 million shares of the stock in one day? Keeping the parameters, keeping this in mind, guys. keeping the parameters that the stock has to close above that 150. Right? Think about that, Ryan. The stock has to close above 150 and he has to buy 1.5 million shares of the stock. How do you think that's going to happen in one day? It's not. So, he has to buy some. He has to make sure that the stock is reacting over the 50-day moving average. He stock is getting better. He adds more and he'll probably get his position off within probably four days, right? Within four days. Okay. With with with guys, let's we'll we'll stick to individual questions uh after because it's it's kind of dis I don't want to I don't want to use the word disrupting. I don't want to be asked it because it's kind of it's kind of throw throwing me off my my my thought. Um I I promise I'll answer all the questions. So, when you're dealing with a thinner name, right? A thinner name like a Boeing right? Like a Boeing or, you know, a CRM or, you know, something that, you know, an ARM, right? An ARM, which is a really, really thin stock, right? It's not like you're going to sit there and be like, yo, I'm going to buy my whole position on one shot. It's impossible. You want to buy some, but you definitely want to make sure that the stock closes above the 50-day. It has to because if it doesn't close above the 50-day moving average, you if if you are if you are um a very proactive swing trader, a dynamic power swing trader, you have to do what the mark what the price action is telling you. If it closes above, you say, "All right, great. Next day, I have to accumulate more." If it closes below, you got to get out of the position. You have to that that's the problem with swing trading. You want to get your position in the stock as this a as the stock continues to build over that magic number. Now, does the trade have to happen over the 50-day moving average? Absolutely not. Right? Absolutely not. Do I enter swings above the 50-day? Generally, I don't generally, right? But there are instances that you can enter a trade above the 50-day moving average that warrants a swing trade. Okay, the problem is the further you go away above the 50-day moving average, you're opening yourself up to volatility, right? Because remember, a stock can always retest back the 50-day, right? Keep this in mind, guys. We see this all the time. You just saw an example of of a random symbol on the RTH's how they they closed above the 50, rallied 13 points, and tested back the 50, right? So, if you're buying a position here or here or here or here or here or here, these are terrible entries, right? These are terrible entries because the further they are above the 50-day moving average, the higher probability it will test retest back the 50-day. Now, luckily, if you're a position right here, it did bounce, right? It did bounce back three days. But again, if you're entering here or here or here or here, it's an awful position, right? It's an absolutely awful position. And here's kind of where we talk about the difference between a good 3540% success rate versus a bad 3540% success rate. So, if you're long here, right, Ryan? Guys, everybody see it? Randy, everybody see it? If you're long here, your risk is the 50-day moving average. So, if you're long at 57 and the damn thing closes at 56, you lose a dollar. Correct? If you're long here or here or here or here or here or here, right? Isn't the whole thing? Isn't the whole thing you want to give it some time to play out? Right? That's the whole point of a swing trade, right? you want to have time to play out as long as it doesn't lose the 50-day but damn it if you're long at 272 and it goes to 261 like what what's your thought process right generally what what's your thought process say oh no because if it loses 257 right I just lost 16 points 35 40% success rate but I just lost 16 points versus losing one point you see what I'm saying guys everybody see what I'm There's a massive difference between a 3540% success rate losing a dollar on your swing trade versus losing $17 on your swing trade because to for you to to get back to even your next trade considering it's maybe it's different size, same size, you have to make that back, right? You have there's a massive right there's a massive difference. So, for example, if you're trading if you're trading Google, right? Let's just go back to Google. If you're trading Google, okay, and you're long at 350, let's just use the higher of the channel, right? You're long at 35160. There's a big difference between if it loses the 50 day, you lose maybe a couple of bucks versus if you're long up here and it loses the 50, right? You're long you're down 1012 on Google. Hell, raise your hand if you want to be down 1012 on Google. That's my point. There's a big difference between a 35 and 40% success rate entering symbols and entering positions at your highest probability levels of success versus entering, yo bro, the stock looks great. It's going to 200. Uh, okay. I've said Tesla's going to 500 probably 10,000 times in the last two years and it can't get above the 50-day moving average. Right? So, always guys, always write this down. The further, right, the further a stock is above the 50-day moving average, the higher probability, right? The higher probability you will get pulled and at some point retest the 50-day moving average. Now, here's here is your curve ball, right? Here's your curve ball. The market's acting great. The stock is consolidating really really well. It's putting in a $5 channel, right? $5 a fiveday uh cycle. It's distributing, distributing, consolidating, consolidating. Dan, I want to be long. I I understand I missed the initial entry above the 50-day moving average, but I want to be long. I want to be long. How do I do it? There's an answer to that as well, right? So, here is Google. Again, might as well might as well rock with Google here for a while, right? So, Google, right? Got above the 50-day moving average, right? Got above the 50-day moving average on the close and never gave it back. But you haven't entered the trade yet, right? you just for whatever reason you haven't entered the trade yet, but you see it's just building, right? It's just building. It's just building. It's just building. And you say to yourself, "All right, just like day trading, right? If I looked at this as a setup on the day trading side, well, now that you are a power swing trader mentality, you've identified again that it's above the 50-day moving average. You've identified that the stock is building above the 50-day. You probably with Google, and again, we're just going to use Google as an example. You probably now have figured out that, hey man, they're coming for, you know, they're coming for the 330 weeklys. They're coming for the 330 weeklys. The top of the range here is 322. Well, you can enter it like a day trade, right? You could enter it just like a day trade because now it's not as advantageous as it was maybe five days ago, but at least now you have a channel developing, a micro channel develop developing in a macro cycle that you can still take advantage of. Now, here's the difference, right? You're not going to you're not going to use the 50-day moving average as you're out. You might, right? If that if if that is your drug of choice, who am I to tell you not to, right? But here's where it gets a little tricky. Okay, this is where you combine the previous day's low and your next rising support as your potential of risk. So, you see how you see how Google the previous day's low uh was 315, right? You see how it's the 315, but you see the rising support is 312, 313, right? You have to say to yourself, it's above the 50-day. It's still above the rising support. I can use two aspects to get out of the trade if I don't want to be in the trade. Okay, let's just pretend again just got above this whole channel. I can use the previous day's low, right? As long as it doesn't close below the previous day's low, the trade is active. or if I want to give it a little bit more risk, as we all know, tech stocks are active. They're they're aggressive. They're super unpredictable. Trump says he loves Google and hates Micron. Micron dies, Google goes up. Vice versa. So, I don't care how good your stock is. Guys, we saw last Friday the cues go from 7:15 to 724, back to 716 in 1 hour. You're telling me your swing position will not be affected? Not even a little pikito, right? Not even a little. So you got to keep that in mind. So you turn around and say to yourself, I could use the previous day's low as my max pain or or I can see because of all these factors of stocks trading in aggressive news cycle, Trump is going crazy, Iran, this yields, blah blah blah, oil. And I want to give it to see how it reacts on the next rising support. And if you see here, it hit its next rising support and it bounced and it and it reclaimed back the previous day's low. You see what I'm saying, guys? And then it never got back on a closing basis below the previous day's low. Everybody seen this example? It just it never closed below the previous day's low. Here it bounced, got above here. It never got back below this cycle. Here it again. It took out the previous day's low for a second, but here is your rising support. And that's kind of my point. Here is your rising support, which which eventually got it through. And then slowly but surely, right, slowly but surely, the trades start to develop, right? Trade starts to develop. And then here you are, right? Here's your dynamic run. And obviously, again, trailing your stock, trailing your your trailing your position. It's basically the same thing. You can use the previous day's low, right? You can use the previous day's low or you can use uh the pre the previous rising uh support. Now, here is where you want to be a little bit more proactive. Even though again, you're swinging your position and you say to yourself, I want to give it some time. You run into a day that there is liquidation, right? Friday in Friday, Friday was a perfect example of that. We ran into a day that the Ched Ched Fairman, the Fed chairman, Jesus, I'm getting old. The Fed chairman, right, decided to do a little bit of a jookie pooky dance and said, "I don't care about your trade. I don't care about your position. I don't care about how strong the stock is. I'm blowing this whole thing up within one hour." Blowing this thing up in one hour. Right? And let's use an example of Nvidia, right? You're long Nvidia and you say to yourself, "Well, wait a minute. This damn thing just had great earnings, right? This damn thing, hey, I'm just I'm just using Nvidia as an example of, you know, nobody's going to be entering the stock here for a swing trade, but I'm just using Nvidia as an example." And you say to yourself, "Well, wait a minute. Nvidia just had great earnings, right? I'm going to enter, you know, I'm going to enter next to the 50, you know, next to its previous day low. He's not going to shake me out." And next thing you know, this dude is talking about reckless stuff and then and then NASDAQ completely implodes and Nvidia goes down $5 below the previous day's low. Right? The one thing I'll always tell you, I don't care how good a stock looks, if you see an outlier behavior session in the market, especially on the sell side, you can't take that trade. You just can't. You could, excuse me, you can take the trade, but I wouldn't I wouldn't sit there, you know, watching everything get liquidated thinking my stock will hold up. You're going to lose money. You're going to absolutely lose money. And then what's going to wind up happening is the stock will close below the previous days because again, everything got liquidated on Friday. It's going to close below the previous day's low. And now you're trapped. And now you're going into the weekend hoping, right? hoping your stock comes back. Hoping, praying your stock comes back. And maybe it will, right? Maybe it will. Maybe the comments were just like so knee-jerk reaction, right? Knee-jerk reaction that hey, it was over, you know, overly emphasized. There was nobody there to protect capital. This there's nobody protect their positions because everybody's on vacation to Labor Day. Maybe it does snap back, but what happens if there's a follow-through, right? There's a follow through and now you're down $4 in your position to begin with, and now the stock gaps down another four. And so now what do you do then? Now you're down $8 in the position. So then automatically you go into panic mode, and you say to yourself, well, now it has to hold above the 50-day, right? You know what the problem is? being long Nvidia 221, the 50-day is 208. [laughter] Right? That's my whole point about when you're entering positions, the further it is above the 50-day moving average, the higher probability you're going to have a an aggressively disgusting pull, right? at some point because again the the the market and the government and and Trump and this they just love throwing out PRs in the middle of the day to put you in the most compromising positions and putting your mental ability to crack at any given point. So now you're saying to yourself, well now I'm down $7 in the position, but damn it, there's another $5 to test this 50-day. So, there's a potential of you being down 15 bucks in the trade and now you hope it bounces off the 50-day, right? And maybe it does and maybe a month goes by and you go back and you two weeks go by and you now you're green on the trade. But why would you want to put yourself through all this situation? You follow what I'm saying, guys? Like why would you put yourself in a situation mentally that you're in a position that you're hoping and praying versus entering a position? Maybe you'll have less swings throughout the month, but you're entering your position with very small risk. It might still turn out to be a 35 40% success rate if it loses back to the 50-day moving average. But if you're on the right tape and the wind is is at your back and the market is going well and you're starting to tip in the point of euphoria, you have a very very small risk versus a tremendous opportunity to catch a move for you know 10 15 20 30% upside as the market continues to build. So the most important part and you'll start seeing all our examples in the future, right? In the future. And Kenyon, what I'm thinking about doing is I I I don't want to talk about from the leg legality aspect. There's other things going on you guys don't know about. Um I I think what we should do is we should make another private Twitter feed, right? um and a private Twitter feed and all active swings will be discussed in that private Twitter feed. Okay. So, we'll call it whatever PS swing. I don't know whatever whatever you guys want to call it. I don't care. Um so, we'll put that Yeah, we'll put that into we'll put that into a different um private Twitter feed. Uh because again, one I I don't want to confuse day trading and swing trading on one on on one thing. I I just don't want to because it gets this there this there's it's like putting sardines and peanut butter in the same in the same dish. You just don't want to do it. You might like sardines. You might love peanut butter, but I sure as hell don't want peanut butter on top of sardines. It just it mixes really really poorly. So yeah, we'll probably I think that's probably the smart thing to do. All active swings will be discussed uh on that private uh private Twitter feed. And just like everything else, everybody will have access to me on that feed. So if you're in a position that's compromised, whatever the case may be, we'll start talking about hedging, right? We'll talk about active hedging. Uh we'll start talk about ratio on active hedging. Um we'll start talking about overall macro environment for potential of that trade to go haywire. Because yes, the easy conversation is you buy it over the 50-day, the damn thing's going to go up 20% in three months. Everybody's happy. You we we talk about risk. When we talk about day trading, we talk about reward versus risk. When you're talking about swing trading or power investing or anything else you want to label it, you are always looking at the dynamics of risk versus reward because you're constantly overnight with your position. Everybody understand what I'm saying, guys? It's not like it's intraday. I don't need a risk. I'm buying this thing with a 30-cent risk. I don't need a hedge. Right? If you're overnight, it just doesn't feel right. Right. It just doesn't feel right, guys. You You want to make sure you have that conversation of, "Hey, by the way, hey, Dan, what are we doing for the risk side?" And that's when we have that conversation, right? That's when we really have that conversation. So, the most important part about swing trading versus day trading, uh, again, that's like I said, I could have knocked out this conversation within 20 minutes. I know I know I've been talking about for 15 minutes right now, but the most important the biggest difference between day trading and swing trading is all your risk in day trading is in front of you. So, you might get chopped up one day, right? And you might lose 30 cents here, 50 cents here. It's not the end of the world. The problem is if you're on the wrong side of sentiment and you're on the wrong side of technical analysis, well, damn it, your position might go down 10% overnight. Not pretty, right? I've had that a lot. That's not exactly pretty. So, what we'll do is for any active swings, right? for any active swings, we will set up a private uh another like the like the PS60 feed, we'll just do a a private swing feed uh in there and everything will be monitored. Uh usually you're not going to have more than two, three swings on it once. If the market is really good, you can have obviously more swings because the momentum is pushing that direction. But if the market is like this, you know, how actively how active of how active do you really want to put on risk, right? The market if the cues are going up up and down $10 within an hour of each other, how aggressive do you want to pursue a swing a swing position? Um, and now you have to figure out, well, wait a minute, not every single stock is the same, right? I'm obviously going to have a a decision of what type of swing trader do I want to be, right? That's a big that's a very very important question, guys. Keep that in mind. It's a very important question. Not everybody can handle swings on Micron. Not everybody can handle swings on SanDisk, right? Some of us can't even [ __ ] day trade that thing without, you know, stooping a a load of our feet, right? It's very scary. It's true. Hey, I'm doing this for a long time. It's very, very scary. So, sometimes you want to pass on a trade on SanDisk. Hey, Dan, it's just not for me. I don't blame you. But you know what? There's a lot of names that are slower, right? that are slower that will give you the exactly the same type of momentum boost potential that are not SanDisk that are not Tesla that are not Micron right you can sleep at night will they give you the same performance probably not right probably not but you can handle yourself right it's a much easier to go on UPS, right? Again, UPS here, first close above the 50-day was 2917. I wouldn't trade this with your money, but you can see it never closed above below the 50-day again and just kept on grinding and grinding. But the problem is in the three days that it's grinding, you're [ __ ] up 10 cents. Damn, this [ __ ] sucks. It doesn't want to go. Yeah. Yeah. Welcome to the nonBA world, right? And then eventually it does wake up. Day four it wakes up and then next thing you know 3 days later you do have a pretty nice move from 29 to 33. So this could be more your style, right? This could be more your style. This could be more your heart rate. This could be more your experience level. The 50day is the 50-day. I don't care what symbol you attach to it, but just realize UPS when the other, you know, when your other positions might be up $17 and this one's up 17 cents, you're like, "Yo, bro, I can't believe I'm in this thing." You got to let it play out, right? Um, you can you can share whatever you want in the webinar. Um, you can share whatever you want on the webinar. Um I'm I'm just trying to figure out from my point of view I I I this is a very delicate thing. This is a very very delicate thing. So yes, you in in the regular webinar you can share whatever you want uh in in in Discord in the webinar whatever whatever you guys want to talk about it's it's it's that's fine right that's fine. Um and as you can see here again just just like just like UPSC first clos 50-day you're out of the trade. And the funny thing is this actually resulted in a flat trade if it lost the 50-day moving average. So the the moral of the story is guys, you have to know when to enter with confidence, right? The higher probability setups are always going to be reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. Um, your highest probability are always going to be when the indexes above the 50-day moving average. Your highest probability will always be when there is no political uh headlines. There's no uh you know financial headlines. We're not in the middle of a mortgage crisis. I mean I mean sometimes just like common sense. Obviously you're you're in the webinar. You're going to turn around and say well Dan I mean who the [ __ ] is going to put on a position while while we're talking about student loan you know student loans are uh are going to default at record high. I mean, you got to use common sense. You know what I'm saying? You got to use common sense. So, again, swing trading, everybody finds, "All right, Monday, let's put on swing." That's not the way it works, folks. Yes. Do I have some ideas that I like? Absolutely. And they're almost imminent. 100%. I like them. Of course, I like them, right? Anything above the 50-day moving average, I like. But again, I if you are trading, for example, if you're trading, for example, Boeing, right? Boeing. I'm just using Boeing as an example, right? Boeing as an example. You don't care where the NASDAQ is. The keys have nothing to do with Boeing. In the same way, if you're trading Tesla, right? You don't care where, you know, the homebuilders are, right? You don't care where the homebuilders are, right? You don't care where the homebuilders are, correct? You don't care. Like, what why do you care where the homebuilders are if you're trading Boeing? Why do you care where Toll Brother, if you're trading Toll Brothers, why do you care where Micron is, right? So your your indexes, right, your indexes have to match your idea, right? Because if they don't match your idea, it's going to be a very very tough struggle. It just is, guys. It just is. And this is why if you meet a successful swing trader like again I think all of us have one really really aggressive swing trader in common is as far as you know at least knowing it and that's Christian right Christian's probably the best swing trader in our lifetime at least that at least I have the ability to speak to right he's the best swing trader he'll tell you 3540% is a pretty good ratio right it's a pretty good ratio but it all depends where you're it all depends where you're entering on that swing trade, your 35% can give you a$1 or2 riskreward with a $30 potential versus a $15 risk with a $5 potential. You see what I'm saying? So, we're in in this very weird dynamic right now, right? That the market number one is going down the path of people are on vacation, right? Labor Day is next next weekend, correct guys? Labor Day is next weekend. So when we're at next weekend into Labor Day, after Labor Day, you'll start seeing more aggressive, right? Aggressive swings start to emerge just because people are going to be fourth quarter usually traditionally is very good for for price action, for price runs because it's the end of the year. uh you you're heading into uh a very very um advantageous time for equities which is uh Thanksgiving, right? The turkey stock, the turkey rally going into uh the Santa Claus rally and then if the market is really really good sweeping into the January effect which everything starts to go. So when people start coming on coming back from vacation after Labor Day, you're probably going to find yourself a little bit more of active swing trades versus like July or May when when you know when summer vacation's starting and you're going to have less market participants on an average day-to-day basis. So we are going into the fourth quarter. Again, very very advantageous for stock prices. As long as the QQQ's are staying above the 50-day moving average, you are fine. So for example, I'll give you I give you another example of of a trade that you can potentially take, right? Potentially take. So, the 50-day and and again, it's going to change on it's going to change tomorrow, but as of right now, the 50-day moving average is 712. Everybody see that, guys? As of right now, it's 7:12. Let's say, right, let's say you want to start a a position in the Q's. Kind of everything that we talked about, right? Just everything we talked about. Obviously, you're not going to put it on here, right? This, right? There's no advantage here. You're like here and not here and not here, right? You want to put it on as close as possible to the 50-day moving average. The one thing we do know about the Q's, sometimes it'll get below the 50-day moving average and just look like it's about to fall off a cliff and then you look up like two hours later and you're like, "Wait a minute. How's it $3 above the 50-day moving average?" You know, welcome welcome to technies welcome to the technology stocks versus everything else. Right? So, what you could do, right? Let's just say we gap down on Monday. Okay, again, I'm just, you know, speculating. Let's just pretend we gap down on Monday, right? And you say to yourself, okay, Dan says above the 50-day green light, below the 50-day red light, right? We all know this. This is basically the the most basic principles of technical analysis. Nothing to do with the key 60 theory. So, let's just say on Monday, you the the Q's, you know, the Q's test 712, right? they test 712 and um and re and and close above. Let's just say it closed 714. What you can do is you can enter it, right? Just like a day trade, you know, again, it doesn't have to be your whole position, but you could enter it at 712 on the rem on the on the reclaim, right? And if it closes, say 7:14, 7:15, you could add some size, right? You add some size to your position. And you know, as long as it doesn't close below 712, there's a really, really good opportunity that you know what, if we do go on this fourth quarter run, and this is traditionally a seasonality advantageous area of market participation, hey, there's a shot I could get 733 last week's highs. So, you're looking at a very, very small risk, right? entering at the 50-day moving average versus entering up here and going, "Well, I'm long at 7:30." Dan says it's above the 50-day moving average. Yeah. Do you realize the 50-day is 712? You're risking like 18 points on the trade. Um Oh, yeah. Yeah, I forgot that part. Yeah. So, yes, above the 50-day is good, but entering above the 50-day matters, right? So, you always want to enter as close as possible. You see how many examples right here, guys? Right? You see how many going back to June, how many times it tested the 50-day, right? And it kept on holding, held, held, held, held. Even here, even here, right? Even Oh, no, excuse me. This is the first close below the 50-day, right? So, it it it it has to close. And the the problem with technology is one day it could be above the 50-day and it could next day could be below. This is not this is not nothing new. This is why my book and again I don't think I've ever uh you know told you guys anything different. Our book is not technology. It's it's just too it's too too big of swings. I I just can't take it. It just can't take it. I'm a consumer cyclical guy. You know, we like retail consumer cycl. I I don't like technology swings. I I think they're scary, right? I I think they're very very scary. Um you know, one day the cues could be, you know, $10 above, next day they could be $10 below. I I don't like that risk, right? I don't like that risk. But your probability, right, and this is kind of what we talk about, your probability of minimizing or shrinking your risk is entering above the 50-day moving average literally, right? Literally, whether it's intraday, right? whether it's intraday or on the close and the the the the the closest it is to the 50-day moving average, the higher probability that your risk diminishes and your wart reward starts to expand in the next couple of weeks, right? So, that's kind of the the swing trading aspect of uh of kind of what we do. Um, a lot of people will try to convince you in the idea that swing trading is more complicated than it is. It's the most it's the most basic thing you can do. As long as the stock is putting in higher lows and higher highs, you're good, right? You're good. That's you're literally what you're good. Your price targets are always your previous upper range, right? So, if you're entering at 712 on the Q's, right? What's your first price target? What's your first target? Your target is the previous week's highs, right? 733. And that correlates, right? Correlates with the 60-minute supply. So, your price target, your price target is recent highs. That's literally that's it's literally all it is, guys. I I I I see people, you know, you talk about swing trading online like they're they're splitting the atom. You your profit target is your recent highs, right? Your recent highs and your out is below the 50-day moving average. That's literally it. Or again, if you're entering at shitty prices, your out is below the previous day's low, which again, I wouldn't recommend starting a swing in the middle of in the middle of a cycle. If you if you if you have to enter a swing in the middle of the cycle, let the stock go sideways for like four, five, six, seven days at least. If you are having a four, five, six, seven days, just like we've seen like in Google, right? This example on Google, right? What was it? Where was it with the where the hell was it? I don't even remember where it was anymore. Oh, right here. So, even even if you missed the initial initial move on Google, yeah, you you need at least a range of at least at least a week, right? At least a week for it to get back above, right? And even though you're not getting into the most advantageous prices because again the 50-day versus the top of the range could be $12 away, but at least you have the validity of a gap, a consolidation rest, and now a full go. Okay? Uh and then obviously all you want to see is the stock to never close below the previous days low. Now, keep this in mind, guys. You guys all know me, right? It's not like we're meeting each other for the very first time. Some of you guys, I know you're you've been with me as long as my daughter's been alive, right? So, it's not like we're we're you know, we we're rediscovering each other. We already know what this is. We're just trying to add a longer term horizon for people who cannot be in the room actively every single day. Right? I get it. You want to day trade. You want to do this. You want to keep your risk low. I get it. But if you are, you know, hey, you know, I got to go to work, right? I got to go to work. I can't I just got to I can't be in the webinar. But you know what? I really like this setup. Well, there you go. There is your active sequence. You already know where you're in and and every guys, keep this in mind. Every active swing the next day on the new feed, right? On the new Twitter feed, I will put in notes just like I would put in notes everywhere else. the stock is above the, you know, above above the previous day's high. This is the area. Make sure it doesn't close. Here's your still your profit target. Have a great day. That's it. There's nothing more to it. Swing trading the most basic thing you could possibly do. There's nothing more to it. So, you'll never be left alone on an island, right? if there are more dynamic notes to be taken to be taken into consideration. Hey guys, I love this setup, but yo, the Fed chairman is speaking today, right? Keep this in mind. You might not let's just see how the stock closes. You might not want to get the intraday risk just for, you know, just for because the guy is speaking, right? So, you have variables that are playing out, right? variables that are playing out in real time that sometimes you might have to wait till you put on your swing, maybe until the next day, right? But all these things, yeah, all these things will be updated throughout the day. They'll be updated on separate emails for the night. So you'll never be by yourself. You'll never just like here, right? You you'll never be by yourself here. You'll never be by yourself in an active trade, right? This is again, you know, this is, you know, I take this very very seriously. So if I take this very very seriously and again I've committed to you guys many many years ago I will never abandon you in on a trade and I'll never abandon you in in in in the generality the totality of what we do in making you a a trader that you see yourself 5 10 years down the line. So we got about 15 20 minutes left and then I have to I have to go to I have to go to Lehi. Um, yeah. Like, like again, Ed, I would, like, look, and you guys know this in the webinar, we we all know we're taking Google. Come on, guys. We all know we're taking Google. [laughter] We we we all know we're going to be in the Google trade. We all know we're going to be in the Tesla trade. You know what I'm saying, Ed? You You all know we all know Fivear above the 50-day moving average. You know, five star is is is a sizable position. We all know this, right? We all know this. But the point is we need to see the stock not just trade like put for this way. If I get long, let's let's just say for example, Monday's high is yesterday's high was 58.880, right? Let's just say tomorrow, right? Let's just say tomorrow, and again, if the market gods are listening, God forbid she give it to us, but let's just say tomorrow the 50-day moving average is 59. It won't. It'll probably be closer to 60, right? But let's just say tomorrow the 50-day moving average is at 59, right? It's kind, you know, it's for the for the week. Granted, it's $10 off, but let's just say it just starts grinding and grinding, right, Ed? Tomorrow closes at 52, the next day closes at 55. The next day is closing 57, and then finally it reclaims 59 and claims back to 50-day moving average. I'm going in strength, dude, with size, right? I'm going strength and size. If I'm wrong, right? If I'm wrong, I'm going to lose a dollar. If I'm right, we're going to capture this whole move. Trader. No, no, no, no, no. That's the whole point. I don't because that's the whole point. The the stocks that we the stocks that I that the stocks that that that I'm trying to use, not use words. The stocks that we right, you can't trade them. That's the whole point. They're they're too thin, right? If you're if you're putting on a position on Kimberly Clark or Proctor and G, you can't day trade them. you can't day trade them. That that's the whole point. You you can't uh majority of stocks you can't day trade. That's why technology is for day trading and everything else is for position trading, right? Um so no, I I don't if there is an issue with the overall environment. We'll either hedge, right? We'll either hedge on the benchmark that it's uh tied into or we'll get out of the trade, right? And we might not be able to get out of the trade that day, but we'll get out of the trade. You know what I mean? We will we will I will never trade around a broken position. It's it's the mindset of averaging down. If your position is not working, whether it's day trading, well, why would you be in a position swing trading that's not working, right? Think about that. I'm not a There is no possible way if a stock is broken, I'm going to be trading around it for what? I can make 10 times more day trading on different symbol and make back that money, right? Well, long term that position is going to make me more because again, if it continues to trend and it gives me a two threemonth move, it's going to be a pretty big move. Um, so I will never I will and again it's it's like it's the equivalent of averaging down. I will never average down. If the trade is broken, it's broken. You can always get back into the trade once it reclaims back a major level. scaling out of swing trades. Um, if you look at the daily chart, if it looks at if you look at the day, now guys, can I tell you something? I've been in swing trades that turned into day trades. Let that be your worst problem. Let if there were guys that were in NBIS. There were guys who were in NBIS, friends of mine, right? And this is kind of how the whole this whole thing kind of started. They got long above that 231 that day and exited that day and it was supposed to be a swing, right? It was supposed to be a swing. They exited that day. [laughter] So it just it just once in a while once in a while you'll turn around and be like, "Yo, wait a minute. How am I in Target? This damn thing is up $7 today." Wait, what? Right. you'll $7 for a move on target you'll take for like a month and a half. So sometimes swings turn into you know turn into day trade. It just happens guys. It just again I I would I wish every every swing turned into a day trade would be amazing. But what you would what you generally would do right we we generally would do so for example like we like you would you would look at the top of the range right you identify the linear regression line and say okay this is my next supply or actually it would be right here it would have been actually right here the the so you say to yourself okay here is uh 237 right 237 you got long here at 231 all right I'm making sales at 237 cuz you know there's a chance it hits 237 then dies Guys, so you hit 237. What's my next supply? Right, my next supply is 256. I go, wow, that's a little extreme. So, you kind of, it depends what you're trading, but you want to see you want to go to your next daily supply. That's ideally you you want to you want to take out maybe 25. If it's like a really big range, like if you have like 15 points in a range, you say to yourself, let me get out a third every five points up. five points up or where the next supply is depending how big the range is. The range is like five dollars, right? The range is like five dollars. You turn around, you go, well, let me sell half up to or you might want to sell even like 15% up a dollar. You know what I mean? Again, you got to see how big the range is. You you want to leave a runner till measured potential or, you know, or till it loses the previous day's low. Honestly, I that's the that's the key. You want to use the previous day's low, man. As long as it doesn't take Kenyon, if you buy a stock at 100 and the [ __ ] thing is at 160, right? Two months later, the damn thing's at 160. You say to yourself, well, I mean, there's no point to obviously hold it till break even. You could turn around and say, "Look, I I could use the previous day's low. I could use the previous week's low. Hell, I could use the previous two weeks low, right?" And that's again, it's a really really good problem to have, right? It's an excellent excellent problem to have. Uh but generally is if you if you're doing it proactively, you just want to make sure the stock does not close below the previous day's low. Here's the thing with options. Okay, here's the thing with options. I am an equity guy. I can tell you where the stock is going to go. I can't tell you where it's going to go in a timely fashion. Right? That's the problem with options. I'm guessing if I had to guess, guys, if I had to guess, you want to give yourself, you want to go out at least a month, right? At least a month. At least a month. Um, I think for all you guys who I'm I'm just saying at least, Fenari, I'm just think I'm I'm thinking at least. You know, you know what I'm saying? At least. Um because again, you could be in a trade and it's just does just doesn't want to do anything, right? It just doesn't want to do anything, but it's still above the range, but it just doesn't want to do anything. And then next thing you know, you come in one day, it gets upgraded, the stock, you know, starts making its run. So that's the problem with options. I'm an equity trader. I'm fighting price. You're an options trader. You're fighting price and time, right? You're fighting time, man. And that's what sucks. You just don't know, right? You just don't know. That's the That's the only But that's the only That's the only issue. You just don't know. I I would give it at least a month or two. Yeah. Uh what was your question, Randy? If we are waiting for the candle to close, how are we entering the trade entering trades after the Oh, no. you're just as the put uh Randy as the the the the market's about to close and you see the stock firmly above the 50-day moving average, you could just start you could just start scaling into the trade and just put on the whole position on the close. You're not waiting for the close like you know what like say for example if if if Tesla if if if the if the 50day is Tesla right is 360 right and the stock is 361 and a half 362 you know it's closing you know it's like 5 minutes left to the close you know it's closing above the 50-day you could just you just wait till you know literally wait till uh wait wait wait till the close to put it on or if you're you know if you're like like me Randy if I'm going to be in Tesla on the 50-day I already know the damn thing has to be it it it should be already by the time he gets to the close we already should be up 7 $8 in the trade. So it's you know what I mean? So it's not so we we we we would never have an issue of waiting to see if Tesla would close at the 50-day. We would already be in the stock for hours. So we would we would already know. You know what I'm saying? Like we would already know. Yeah, we would already know. Um no no we we would never buy after hours. No, Lely. We would you you would see the stock closing. You would see the stock above the 50-day. You would see the stock above the 50-day well prior to the close. Well prior to the close. Or even better, if Tesla's putting in like a $10 candle into the close and you this [ __ ] closes right at it, you know, you you're going to take it long overnight because you know it's going to it's going to go because you know if it's going to if it reclaims 50day on the close, that's super bullish. That's that's all the momentum pushing up the stock. That's super duper bullish. But yeah, guys, I would let you know. I would let you know, you know, again, on on the Twitter feed, hey, this is what's happening. Again, you don't have to guess. You know what I'm saying, guys? Like, you don't you don't have to guess. What percentage of the swing do you recommend an aggressive trader to use on a single trade? Percent. What do you mean by percentage? Percentage of your account. It's a great question. Um, it's a great question. P on your account. I never actually thought about that. I I I think it all depends on the quality the quality of the 50-day rebound. So So Chris, if you know, right, if you know if the stock has to close at 50 and it close at 51, I think it's like a personal decision. You say, "Well, I'm risking a dollar. How much should I should I should I allocate the risk?" Right. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't go crazy, Chris. Yeah. 2% maximum, you know what I mean? Like 2% maximum. Like, I wouldn't go crazy cuz remember, Chris, it's not your only position. A lot of people, and this is what the problem with day trading as well, a lot of people believe that once you enter a trade, hella high water. You got to see that [ __ ] play out. No. If I'm in a trade and it's heavy, Chris, you know me. If I'm in a trade and it's heavy, I'm going to get out. I'll I can always re-enter it, right? Against the whole theory of sometimes you got to break some eggs to make an omelette. So I I'll you know, if that the trade is heavy, I'll lose 20, 30, 40 cents in the trade. I'll get back into it. So, you know, I'll get back into it. So, yeah, I I I that's a great question. I I would I would agree with Sean and um I I I would agree with these guys. I I think I think two if it's a if you have like a dollar risk, Chris, if you have a dollar risk, I would risk 2%. If you have like a three two $3 risk, I would risk 1%. Because remember again, you don't guys, you do not need to be your in your full position overnight, right? You do not need to be in your full position. That's the that's the most important part I can tell you. You might just enter the position with, hey, let me see how this acts tomorrow. 10%. So if you lose, right, if you lose money on 10% size, who gives a [ __ ] right? Think about it, Chris. If if you enter the position and you lose a dollar on 10% of your position, okay, again, the the key is for the stock to continue to build, the longer it builds, the higher probability it's going to go. Dollar value. Um, well, let's just say, okay, let's just say you have a you have a $100,000 account. Okay, let's make it easier. you have a $10,000 account. It's a great question. Um, it's a good question. If you have a $10,000 account, 2% is what? 200 bucks. Doesn't seem like a lot, does it? Um, it's a good question. I think dollar I I think do I think dollar-wise you have to take into account you have to take into account the price of the stock right your max pain is still going to be your max pain so if you're trading a $10 stock right so if you're trading a $10 stock you know you're going to have less volatility if you're trading a $200 stock you know you're going to have more volatility and obviously the $200 stock is going to eat into your equity much more than the $10 stock. It's a great question. It's a it's a very very good question. I I I think the answer the generic answer is individually of of a trader's account because if you have a million-doll account, right, if you have a million dollar account, I don't think you're worrying about that because again, you still have so much equity. You could day trade freely, right? The last thing you want to also do, by the way, and I just want to I want to reiterate this. The last thing you want to do is get into a position that's trading at a 10-cent range, tying up all your equity while your day trading aspect is giving you two, three, $4 a day. [laughter and gasps] If we're in a runaway market and you're in a swing trade, you're up 10 cents while Tesla's up five, um, that's a little discouraging. You know what I'm saying? That's you know what I'm saying? So, I always want to reiterate the point. You always want to keep enough that the the swing is going to be beneficial, but you want to keep enough equity that you can day trade. You know what I'm saying, Chris? The last thing you want to do is be long, you know, AMC. And let's just say AMC. Funny thing is AMC actually looks good. Like, look, look at AMC. AMC is a perfect example. And this is the septic tank, guys. You see the septic tank? This is the septic tank, right? This is the first close above the 50-day. It never loses, right? Never loses the 50-day. And then the stock is moving up. You see what I'm saying, guys? Entering at the 50-day, it never loses the 50-day, guys. Everybody see it? You're entering on the first close above the 50-day moving average. Here, your risk been would have been probably like 10 cents. It never loses the 50-day, right? You're sitting there for four days because so the last thing I want you to do, Chris, the last thing I want you to do is being long AMC at a$1 at a $1.92 and the [ __ ] thing is trading 1921 1961 1921 196 for 4 days as Tesla's up $17 and you don't have any more buying power. [laughter] You know what I'm saying? like you don't have any more buying power and then finally the damn thing wakes up, you know, three weeks later. Yeah, I would use my whole buying power. Chris, let let me risk that's my whole point because I would use my whole buying power because the reason why I would use my whole buying power is you know you know that your max pain is only a dollar. So even if you if even if your max pain is 500 bucks, keep keep this in mind. You're not tying up your whole buying power for the rest of your life. if you're just tying it up on your entry. So, if the entry works, you make $10, right? What's the difference? You know, what's the difference? How much money you're tying up? So, yeah, on a five-star play, I would [ __ ] use everything. Think of it, Chris. I would use the whole the damn thing because if it goes, it's going to go super aggressively. If it's if it fails, you're going to lose a dollar, right? Well, no, no, no. You don't want to you don't want to hedge as a stock is is exploding above the 50-day. You just want to you want to hedge in case the rest of the market is is is looking like crap, right? If the rest of the market looks like crap, then you have to start thinking about a hedge, right? Maybe buy some maybe buy some puts, uh you know, outdated puts, something like that. That that that's when you get But again, we'll discuss that. When I'm when I'm entering on a 50-day break, all I'm thinking is this damn thing is it it it better it needs to explode right here. I'm not even thinking about it failing because if it fails, I'm going to lose a dollar. Now, I'm going to lose a dollar on full size. So, it's not pretty, but I'm going to lose a dollar, right? That's me and my max pain. So, yes, I would go aggressively. That's why it's a fivestar That's why it's a fivestar play, right? That's why there's only one fivestar play. Um, that's why it's only one one fivestar play. Not everything's a fivestar play. So, yeah, I would aggressively go into into a 50-day break. Sure. Definitely. Definitely. Especially with option flow. Chris, think about it. If Tesla if we're entering Tesla 360 and a buyer is coming in for same day expiration for a million for 370 calls. Yo, close your eyes. Click that button. Hopefully, it works. It's just it's just the truth. That's that's the way it works, you know? That's the way it works. Again, you're not getting every single day. You're not getting a 50-day rate a 50-day reclaim. You know what I mean? You're just not getting a 50-day reclaim. So, whenever you're getting that opportunity Yeah. I mean, that Yeah. A whole different Yeah. Yeah. Listen, that's a complete different conversation. Balances and rejections, that's that's a whole different thing. But the the quality of setup matters. So, if I had a choice, Chris, if I had a choice of doing ARM on a 50-day reound, right, or doing Tesla on a 50-day reound, I would do Tesla, right? I would do Tesla. Same chart, right? Same chart. One of them is thin, one of them is Tesla, right? So, the quality and historical value of your participation in the in this future project matters on the symbol, right? So, it's it's very very important. But yeah, anything to do with uh anything to do with hedging or curve balls in the market and all that stuff, you know, will be covered, you know, will be absolutely covered um throughout the day on the swing feed 100%. You're not going to be you're not going to be you're you're not going to be guessing, right? You're not going to be guessing. Yes, you're entering the swing. You're Yeah. And guys, that's another thing. That's a great Yeah. Always always know where you're like I I'm I'm Unless I'm up like 10 15 points on on a swing on a multi-month move, there's no way in hell we're we're taking anything into into uh into earnings. There's no way. That's that's a pure gamble. Um, yeah, Lely, if it's a if it's a technology stock, if you want to start if you want to if you want to start your swing intraday, then treat it like a day trade. So, it has, you know what I mean? So, if I'm buying if the 50-day moving average break on Tesla, then I'm buying it intraday, right? And if it turns into something massive, it turns into something massive. But everything else, you you should really wait for the close because everything else is not tradable. You should really wait for the close. So for so if um so if Lowe's right if lows 50day is 150 and it closes 151 you know it's good. So as like you know you could put on the clo you could put on the trade 5 minutes into the close. Everything else I would wait for the close. Yeah. Any other questions guys? Because I'm starting to lose my voice. [clears throat] Guys again everything else will be handled right. everything else will be handled. Um, you know, everything else will be handled. Again, you're never going to be by yourself, right? You're always every every trade is going to be every trade is going to be in a weird way. It's there's going to be handholding because, you know, you need to know what's happening in the macro environment.