Progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to Parliament

Hello, I'm Nigel Topping, chair of the Climate Change Committee. Welcome to this video about the CCC's 2026 progress report to Parliament. Each year since the Climate Change Act became law in 2008, we have assessed the UK's progress towards its legally binding emissions targets. The UK remains among a leading group of countries demonstrating sustained emissions reductions, and we can be proud of that. We were pleased to see that the government has proposed a level for the seventh carbon budget, a cap on greenhouse gas emissions from 2038 to 2042, in line with our advice. This is both an ambitious and an achievable target. However, this is a particularly crucial moment. We've just experienced a second global fossil fuel price shock in 4 years, driven by geopolitical tensions. And that's highlighted a fundamental issue. The UK is still too dependent on fossil fuels, and the government is still not moving fast enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That leaves households, businesses, and the country exposed to volatile fossil fuel prices. And the solution is clear. It's electrification. That means continuing to build clean electricity and to roll out technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps much faster, as well as electrifying industry. Accelerating electrification offers multiple benefits at once: reduced emissions, lower energy bills, improved air quality, and stronger energy security. By 2050, an electrified energy system would cut wasted energy by half compared to today's levels. That's a huge saving. The committee's number one recommendation in last year's progress report was to make electricity cheaper, and that still stands today. We've seen good progress on renewable power in the past year with record amounts of renewable capacity procured in the latest contracts for difference allocation round. And electric car sales are broadly on track. But progress elsewhere on electrification is lagging. Electric van uptake is falling behind. Growth in the heat pump market slowed last year, and there has been little progress on electrifying industry. The UK has committed to cut emissions by at least 68% by 2030 under its nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement. Achieving this target would put the UK on track to achieve its future carbon budgets and net zero by 2050. But right now, there's a gap between that target and what current policies will deliver. So, what needs to happen? The good news is we know what works, and while our report sets out a wide range of recommendations, four would make the biggest difference. First, make electricity cheaper so that when people switch to low-carbon options, they save money. Second, accelerate electric vehicle uptake, especially vans, and expand access to affordable charging. Third, dramatically scale up heat pump rollout, including better support for low-income households and fewer barriers to installation. And fourth, deliver a clear plan for industrial electrification. With such clear advantages for both the environment and economic growth, we must move beyond political divisions and focus on the evidence. To begin with, let's look at the UK's greenhouse gas emissions over time. Overall emissions in the UK have been falling steadily. They're now less than half the levels seen in 1990. So, the UK is more than halfway to to its 2015 net zero emissions target. As you can see, a system of carbon budgets sets caps on emissions over each 5-year period. The UK has already achieved the first three of those carbon budgets. Emissions are well on track to achieve the fourth carbon budget, which covers the period from 2023 to 2027. And in fact, emissions in 2025 were already lower than the annual average required over the remaining years of this carbon budget period. I mentioned that the UK has a target to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This is set through its nationally determined contribution, or NDC as it's named under the UN climate process. There's also a further NDC target for 2035. The 2030 NDC is the UK's first target aligned with achieving net zero by 2050, and meeting it would put the UK on track to deliver the sixth carbon budget. For this reason, much of our assessment focuses on the actions needed to reach that 2030 target. Last year, the government published its carbon budget and growth delivery plan, which sets out its policies and plans to meet upcoming carbon budgets. The emissions pathway set out in that plan is shown here in orange. This pathway meets the fourth, fifth, and sixth carbon budgets, but falls short of achieving the 2030 NDC. The government remains committed to delivering this target, so we'll need to bring forward further policies to do so. I'll now hand over to Dr. Owen Devine, the director of net zero at the Climate Change Committee, and he'll talk you through more detail on the analysis that underpins the report. >> Thank you, Nigel. The main driver of emissions reduction to date in the UK has been the electricity supply sector, where emissions are now 82% lower than in 2008. Emissions from gas-fired generation are now less than half 2008 levels, while emissions from coal are now zero. While there have been varying levels of emissions reduction in the high-emitting sectors of surface transport, buildings, and industry, these have been largely due to efficiency improvements and wider contextual changes, rather than sustained progress towards low-carbon technologies. In these areas, electrification offers significant potential to accelerate emissions reduction. Emissions from agriculture and land use, as well as from aviation, have not fallen significantly over the past two decades. As other sectors decarbonize, these sources are expected to become an increasingly large share of UK emissions. Provisional data show that emissions in 2025 were 407 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, 1.8% lower than in 2024. The main driver of this reduction was the closure of the blast furnaces at Port Talbot steelworks in the second half of 2024. Construction is now underway to replace them with an electric arc furnace. Emissions also fell in the fuel supply and building sectors, the latter despite colder winter months in 2025 than the year before. This could be from high energy prices continuing to reduce demand. The number of heat pumps currently being installed is not yet enough to have a significant effect on emissions. Surface transport is the UK's highest emitting sector, and its emissions increased slightly in 2025. Progress in the rollout of EVs from year to year is likely to have been offset by other factors, such as increased vehicle kilometers. However, the impact of EVs is apparent in longer-term trends. Despite car kilometers having almost returned to 2019 levels, car emissions are 12% lower than in 2019. Looking forward, the government's carbon budgets and growth delivery plan makes clear that action now needs [snorts] to broaden across a wider range of sectors than has been seen to date. Around half of the emissions reduction since 2008 has come from the electricity supply sector, shown in yellow in this chart. However, as this sector is now largely decarbonized, contributions from other sectors will need to grow quickly. At the same time, continued expansion of low carbon generation, electricity storage, flexibility, and supporting network infrastructure will remain critical to enable electrification of other sectors. Around half of the emissions reductions in the government's pathway to 2030 are in the surface transport, buildings, and industry sectors, shown in purple, orange, and blue. Uptake of EVs, heat pumps, and other electric technologies will be the key driver of this change. These sectors will continue to play a key role in achieving the sixth carbon budget. However, the government's pathway also places significant reliance on engineered removals in this period. As this sector is not yet deployed at scale, and with ongoing uncertainty around future policy and funding, this represents a key area of risk. As well as emissions data, we also look at a range of indicators that allow us to assess progress towards the changes that are required even before it translates into emissions reduction. This includes monitoring the pace at which markets for low carbon technologies are growing, how their costs are changing, and how households and businesses are adopting low carbon choices. A key finding from our assessment this year concerns the comparison between progress on electricity supply and electrification. There's been strong progress on the transition to a low-carbon electricity system. By contrast, progress to electrify technologies across surface transport, buildings, and industry is more mixed. More than half of our indicators for electrification are either off track, shown orange, or significantly off track, shown in red. And there is potential to go faster even amongst those that are progressing well. Let's focus first on the positive progress in electricity supply. Rollout of renewable generation continues to progress strongly. The UK now has 16.6 gigawatts of operational offshore wind capacity with a pipeline of contracted projects that will more than double this to 37 gigawatts by 2032. This includes a record 8.4 gigawatts contracted in this year's seventh allocation round. Further growth will still be needed to meet the government's ambitious offshore wind targets. Onshore wind capacity has increased gradually, reaching 16.4 gigawatts. While annual deployment will need to increase slightly above the historical peak, a strong pipeline of projects and relatively short delivery times mean there is a good potential to scale up in the years ahead. Solar is also accelerating. 2025 saw the highest annual solar PV deployment since 2015, marking a third consecutive year of strong growth. Operational capacity is now 21.7 gigawatts, which will need to double by 2030. The government's ambition to triple the number of homes with rooftop solar panels could make a significant contribution to this goal. Turning to electrification, the picture is more mixed. Let's begin with surface transport. EV sales are continuing to grow. In 2025, nearly one in four new car sales were electric, and the total number on UK roads surpassed 2 million for the first time this April. All manufacturers complied with the ZEV mandate in 2024, taking account of flexibilities, and we expect this to have been the case again for 2025. The cost gap is also closing. The average purchase price premium of a new EV relative to an equivalent petrol car has fallen from 24% in 2024 to 16% in 2025. This is on course to deliver price parity across all market segments within the next 2 years. Once this happens, EVs will be cheaper both to buy and to run, representing a key tipping point, after which an EV will be the natural choice for consumers. Evidence from countries such as Denmark shows that the pace of adoption could then grow more quickly than in the government's pathway. For vans, however, the story is less positive. While EV sales grew by more than 1/3 year-on-year to reach almost 1 in 10 new vans in 2025, this remains below the ZEV mandate target. Price reductions have also lagged behind those seen in the car market. However, there is still an opportunity to catch up as better, cheaper models come to market and as operational barriers are addressed. Next, let's consider the building sector. A quarter of all new homes built in 2025 included a heat pump. Recent changes to building regulations mean that all new homes should be built with low-carbon heating by the end of the decade. Heat pump installations at existing homes continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed significantly to 7% in 2025 compared to 56% the year before. Growth will need to accelerate rapidly to deliver on the ambition set out in the government's warm homes plan. Evidence from other European markets, as as as the UK's own progress between 2023 and 2024 suggest that higher installation rates are achievable. Despite some progress in removing some policy costs from electricity bills in last year's budget, the ratio of electricity to gas prices remains too high at around 4 to 1. This is a key barrier to heat pump adoption. The third key sector for electrification is industry. The share of electricity in industrial energy use fell slightly from 28% in 2023 to 27% in 2024. As industrial electrification is the key source of decarbonization in the government's plan, this share will need to increase significantly. Just as in the building sector, the ratio of industrial electricity to gas prices remains too high at around 4 to 1. The government's British industry supercharger scheme reduces this close to 2 to 1 for around 500 businesses, with broader reforms expected to reduce ratios to around 3 and 1/2 to 1 by 2027. But it is as yet unclear whether this will be sufficient to drive electrification at scale. We also monitor a wide range of indicators beyond electrification. The full set can be found in the report, but here are three key insights. There has been strong progress in peatland restoration with rates in 2025 up 26% on the previous year and roughly three times higher than in 2020. All UK nations currently have grant funding for peatland restoration in place until at least 2027. Progress on woodland creation is more mixed with planting rates falling by 25% last year following a significant increase the year before. This reduction was driven by funding cuts in Scotland, which continues to plant more than half of the UK's new woodlands. By 2030, UK-wide planting rates will need to reach rates last seen in the 1980s. The share of jet fuel provided by sustainable aviation fuel increased slightly to 2.5% in 2025, achieving the target in the SAF mandate. This will need to continue growing to reach the 10% target by 2030. Turning now to our assessment of the government's policies and plans. The UK is now halfway through the fourth carbon budget and is on track to meet it. There are also credible plans in place to achieve the fifth carbon budget. These budgets are shown by the black horizontal lines on the chart, and you can see that the green parts of our assessment meets these targets. But, they were set before the UK had a net zero target. They must be overachieved to set the country on the appropriate path. The black dots show the emissions reductions required in each period in the government's pathway, while the purple dots show what's needed to meet the 2030 NDC. Our assessment is that credible plans shown in green and plans with any some risks, shown in yellow, would deliver around 3/5 of the emissions reduction needed to meet the 2030 NDC. This would reduce emissions to 356 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. While this is a small improvement since our assessment last year, it still leaves a shortfall of 64 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent of further required emissions reduction. These further reductions are either covered by plans with significant risks, shown in orange, insufficient plans, shown in red, or not covered by the government's plan. Our assessment is similar for the sixth carbon budget. Unlike for the 2030 NDC, the government's pathway does achieve this budget. However, this is largely achieved through additional measures where we have assessed there to be significant risks or insufficient plans. This means that the proportion of red in this chart increases significantly to 17% over the sixth carbon budget period. Let's now look at what our assessment looks like in each key sector. Continued growth in the EV market and falling prices give us strong confidence in the delivery of the government's pathway for surface transport. The ZEV mandate remains central, supporting market momentum and investment in charging infrastructure. The majority of emissions reductions in this sector are therefore credible. There are risks associated with policies that may be enabling greater uptake of plug-in hybrids at the expense of EVs and with the rollout of electric vans. There has been some positive progress for buildings. The publication of the future home standard means that there is now a clear path to decarbonizing new buildings across most of the UK. While the policy in the warm homes plan should reduce household bills and emissions. However, there remain significant gaps, particularly in public and commercial buildings and in low-income homes following the closure of the energy company obligation scheme. And electricity prices remain too high. Plans are insufficient for the full extent of the scale-up of low-carbon heating installations in existing homes required over the next decade. Land use actions such as peatland restoration and woodland creation are starting to gain momentum. Further action will be needed to sustain delivery and close remaining gaps, building on the land use frameworks which now exist in England, Scotland and Wales. In agriculture, all nations of the UK now have future agri-environment schemes in place which are necessary for farmers to diversify their operations. But we assess that there continues to be at least some risk associated with all agricultural policies. The carbon budget and growth delivery plan contains a stronger focus on industrial electrification than the previous government's plan. This is sensible in line with growing evidence on the balance of industrial decarbonization technologies. But while work to electrify the Port Talbot steelworks is underway, the route to electrification remains unclear for large parts of the market and high electricity prices remain a key barrier. A plan is urgently needed. Without this, we assess there to be significant risks or insufficient plans for a large portion of the emission savings required. In aviation, policy development and the achievement of the SAF mandate in 2025 have strengthened our confidence in the uptake of sustainable aviation fuel. However, supply challenges, uncertainty around international carbon pricing, and the need for rapid efficiency improvements mean risks remain high. In the electricity supply sector, important steps have been taken to remove planning barriers and reform the grid connections process. The UK is firmly on a path to a very low carbon electricity system by the start of the sixth carbon budget period. The majority of emissions reductions in this sector are assessed as having credible plans. A range of policy risks remain though, including rolling out sufficient renewables capacity to meet the government's ambitions and addressing transmission network constraints. Finally, the government's pathway relies on a steep scale-up of engineered removals in the sixth carbon budget period. This is a high-risk approach, yet there is currently no delivery strategy. Key policies are delayed and long-term funding remains uncertain. As a result, we assess a large share of the removals required in the sixth carbon budget period to have insufficient plans. I'll now hand over to our chief executive, Emma Pinchbeck, to discuss the benefits that electrification can offer for households. >> Nigel and Owen have just taken you through the key findings from the analysis behind our progress report. What this means for households is becoming increasingly important as the cost of living continues to put pressure on people. That's why, for the first time, we have included a dedicated chapter on this in the report. The committee has been clear that electrification is not yet progressing fast enough across the UK. This puts our emissions targets at risk, and it represents a missed opportunity to enhance our energy security and protect households from volatile fossil fuel prices. We've seen the consequences of this over recent months. Since the start of the Iran war, energy bills have increased almost four times more for a typical household with a gas boiler and a petrol car compared to a household with a heat pump and an electric vehicle. For a rural household with an oil boiler and a diesel car, the increase is 10 times more. Electric vehicles and heat pumps can save households money today. Our evidence shows that this is true for prices both before and since the start of the Iran war. For a typical household, switching from a gas boiler and a petrol car to a heat pump and an EV would reduce overall household costs. This is because slightly higher upfront costs are offset by lower running costs. These savings increase further if the household also installs solar panels and switches to a time of use tariff. We estimate that a typical household could save around £1,200 a year at today's energy prices. However, these benefits are not yet available to everyone. Around 1/3 of households cannot charge an EV at home, and due to the current high public charging prices, they do not see savings in our analysis. Clearly, more needs to be done to make affordable public charging more widely available so that all households can realize these savings. For those who can charge at home, EVs already deliver significant benefits. Their much higher efficiency means EVs are far cheaper to run than petrol cars, with annual savings ranging from around £450 to £1,600 at today's prices. As a result, most households would now save on combined upfront and running costs over the lifetime of a car by switching from a fossil fuel car to an electric car. Rural households who are often more dependent on their car see the larger savings. While households without home charging do not see savings in our analysis, some may be able to make a saving if they minimize reliance on higher power chargers or make use of a subscription or charge sharing services. Savings could also be gained through low-carbon home heating. If switching to a heat pump alone, even after application of the £7,500 government grant, there are sometimes additional costs associated with one-off upgrades to homes. The high electricity to gas price ratio means that the greater efficiency of a heat pump does not yet translate into significant bill savings. Our analysis does show savings for low-income and rural households due to the larger support grants available and the high price of heating oil. All of the types of households we modeled in this report can make savings if heat pumps are combined with solar panels and time-of-use tariffs. Solar panels allow households to produce energy to meet some of their own demand, while time-of-use tariffs allow them to shift that consumption to cheaper times of day. That said, these options are not suitable for every home. And that's why further action to make electricity cheaper is so crucial to ensure the greater efficiency of heat pumps is reflected in lower energy bills for all households. Overall, this new analysis shows that electric technologies are already viable for widespread adoption today. The government needs a more ambitious plan for electrification to reduce both emissions and household costs. Making electricity cheaper must be at the heart of that new strategy. >> While the UK is making good progress in reducing emissions, the rate of global warming continues to rise and is at a record high. We're already experiencing the impacts. Heat waves have become hotter, longer, and more frequent. We recently saw the highest May temperature on record in the UK on top of last year's drought, which caused an estimated 800 million pounds loss in revenue for our farmers. Early 2026 was exceptionally wet in parts of the UK with long unbroken spells of rain leading to widespread flooding. The UK can both end its contribution to ongoing climate change by reaching net zero emissions and have a resilient transition that simultaneously considers actions to adapt to rising temperatures. We've been clear in this report that accelerating electric vehicle sales and heat pump installations and electrifying industry beyond government plans are crucial to help keep the 2030 NDC target within reach. But this is about more than hitting a target. It's about cleaner air. It's about easing inflationary pressures from fossil fuel shocks. And it's about reducing costs for consumers, giving them more spending power elsewhere in the economy. The prize is significant. By 2030, the UK could save up to 80 million barrels of oil and 1.5 billion therms of gas, which would cost almost 8 billion pounds a year at current prices. We stand ready to support Parliament in any way we can to hold government to account on behalf of us all. And I hope that when I stand here again next year, I'll be able to speak not just about plans, but about more tangible progress that has been made, particularly in reducing the cost of electricity. And finally, my thanks to all members of the committee for their guidance, and to the brilliant team in the CCC Secretariat for their work on this report. Thank you.