Progress in adapting to climate change: 2025 report to Parliament

Hello, welcome to this video about the climate change committee's progress report on preparing for climate change in the UK. I'm Baroness Brown, the chair of the adaptation committee. Our report fulfills the committee's statutory duty to assess the progress of the government's plan for preparing the UK for the growing impacts of climate change. And I don't think it'll surprise people that this is not good news. Our report comes at a time when the world's and the UK's climate is changing faster than ever. Warming caused by human activity has already driven average global temperatures to more than 1.3° C above pre-industrial levels. Ongoing global greenhouse gas emissions are currently warming our planet by around a quarter of a degree every decade. In 2024, boosted by natural climate cycles, the world experienced a whole calendar year of warming in excess of 1.5 degrees C, the hottest year on record. Locally, over a 100 countries faced their hottest year on record. This record global warmth is bringing widespread shocks around the world. India experienced its longest heat wave on record with areas reaching 50 degrees C during the six-w week general election. Imagine queuing for hours to vote in 50°ree heat. Closer to home, none of us will have forgotten the flooding in Valencia which caused over 200 deaths. That serves as a stark reminder that a warming planet can affect all aspects of our weather. In the UK, we continue to see the impacts of climate change, too. In July 2022, temperatures exceeded 40 degrees for the first time in the UK. A record level of around 3,000 heat related deaths in England were linked to this heat and other hot periods across that summer. One in five doctors reported cancellations of surgeries due to extreme heat, primarily due to staff and bed shortages and overheating in operating theaters. Earlier that summer, parts of the country saw a severe and widespread drought that was the worst since 1976. Water reduction measures impacted 20 million people and caused low crop and milk yields. The hot and dry conditions experienced contributed to a record number of large wildfires, a key emerging climate risk in the UK. Our fire and rescue services were put under significant pressure. There was a 500% spike in 999 calls. 500% in mid July. October 2022 to March 2024 saw the wetest 18-month period for England since records began. 50% more rain than normal fell in some regions. This and the associated flooding had huge effects on farmers across the UK. It was the second worst arable harvest in England since modern records began. The flooding caused by the rainfall over the winter of 2023 24 was made more severe by a sequence of storms hitting in rapid succession. This meant that rain fell on already saturated ground, increasing the likelihood and extent of flooding. Storm Babette, which hit the UK in October 2023, flooded over 2,000 properties and led to the evacuation of many more. Damage from this flooding and the storm's very strong winds caused at least 500 million in property damages. Sea levels are rising around the UK. The rate of rise has accelerated to almost half a centimeter a year at Newlin in Cornwall, the location of one of the longest available records around the UK. This is much higher than the long-term average of about 2 millimeters per year. Rising sea levels increase coastal flooding risks and speed up coastal erosion. Some coastal communities are already at risk. Recent years have seen homes lost in places such as Norfolk. Key coastal heritage sites like the iconic Berlin Gap on the South Coast are increasingly under threat. Further changes to our climate are inevitable. We need to plan for a warmer future alongside trying to stop climate change from getting worse. Projections of global emissions expected under current policies indicate that warming will exceed the lower end of the temperature goal agreed in the 2015 Paris agreement in the 2030s. This is 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. We are currently on track to reach two degrees of warming by the middle of the century and 2.5 to 3 degrees by the end of the century. But if climate change turns out worse than expected, the planet could warm faster and global temperatures could reach much higher levels, possibly as high as 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The committee is clear that the science says it is still possible to keep warming to 1.5 to two degrees above pre-industrial in the second half of the century. To do that, we need to see much more ambitious global emissions reductions. However, prudent adaptation planning must consider what might happen otherwise. So, what does this mean for the UK? We will experience warmer and wetter winters and shift towards drier and hotter summers with more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Sea levels around the UK will continue to rise for centuries to come. These changes will increase challenges to farmers. Over half of England's top quality agricultural land is at risk of flooding today with a further increase expected by 2050. Climate changes pose a major threat to UK biodiversity and nature more broadly at a time when it is already in a poor condition and degrading rapidly. It also threatens the ability of land to sequester carbon, a key part of how the country plans to reach its net zero target. Extreme weather will more frequently disrupt the functioning of our key infrastructure. Over a third of railway and road kilometers are currently at flood risk, predicted to rise to about half by 2050. Rising drought risk will increasingly put water supplies under pressure in the summer. An increasing number of properties will be at risk of flooding or overheating, or indeed both. Currently, 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea, and surface water. This is predicted to rise to around 8 million by 2050. That's one in four properties at risk of flooding. Heat related deaths already occur in the thousands each year, but could rise several times to exceed 10,000 a year by 2050. Climate change will challenge our economic prosperity. Unchecked climate change could cost around 7% of economic output by 2050, creating challenges for driving sustainable long-term growth across the country. It's a disappointment that we have not seen a step change in the country's approach to adapting to climate change following last year's change of government. We are also not seeing it prioritized in the devolved administrations. To date, no government in the UK has taken this risk seriously enough. I will now hand over to Dr. Richard Miller, the head of adaptation at the climate change committee. He will take you through the findings of our assessment of how the country is preparing for these changes. Thank you, Baroness Brown. The third national adaptation program, which is also referred to as NAP 3, is the government's strategy for preparing for climate change. It was published in July 2023 and covers devolve policy areas for England and reserve policy areas for the UK. To evaluate how well the country is preparing for climate change, our report sets out what a well- adapted UK could look like and compares where the country is against that. We evaluate adaptation outcomes needed for a well- adapted UK across five key areas threatened by climate change. We look at whether ecosystems across the country are healthy and resilient to climate impacts. We look for evidence that farming, forestry, and fisheries are impacted by extreme weather and are implementing key adaptation actions. We also consider how vulnerable the UK's food supplies, including those imported from abroad, are to extreme weather shocks. We look at whether key systems such as water, energy, telecoms, and transport, can continue to function during current and future weather extremes. We look at evidence on changing overheating and flood risk, and at preparations needed across towns, cities, and individual buildings for the hotter and wetter futures ahead. We also consider whether communities can prepare for extreme weather and respond to limit impacts when it occurs. We look at how climate change is impacting people's health and whether our health care system is safe and reliable even when under pressure from extreme weather. Finally, we look at whether businesses and financial institutions are able to manage their own climate risks and to invest in needed adaptation. In each of these areas, our assessment looks at two things. Firstly, evidence of delivery and implementation of adaptation. Secondly, whether there are highquality government policies and plans to support adaptation across society. In our assessment of adaptation delivery and implementation, our conclusion is clear that adaptation implementation remains inadequate in the UK. We do not find a single outcome across all areas with evidence of good delivery on adaptation. Progress is either too slow, has stalled, or is heading in the wrong direction. The committee considered 26% of outcomes to be insufficient. Our worst score, including all of those related to health. For 20% of outcomes, there aren't enough indicators to assess overall progress accurately, most critically for measuring overheating adaptation in buildings and urban areas. It is clear that NAT 3 has been ineffective in delivering on adaptation. The vast majority of our outcomes across all areas have received the same score as in 2023. We have seen progress only in a small number of areas. Most notably, more key organizations in infrastructure are identifying and reporting on how they exposed to the lack of climate resilience in other sectors. This is a key step towards better managing these interdependencies, but more work is required to tackle these challenges effectively. The two years since our previous report have also seen adaptation delivery challenges in other areas. For example, the water sector has failed to deliver the sustained rates of leakage reduction needed to stay on track for existing commitments. This is a key part of preparing for a drier future and demonstrates an ongoing challenge in converting planning into delivery. Critically, inadequate monitoring and evaluation remains a serious blocker to effective progress monitoring across all sectors. In many cases, we have to rely on proxy indicators as substitutes for direct measurements of adaptation or climate risk. And for nearly all outcomes, there is a lack of clarity from government on what it sees as key indicators and on what levels indicators need to reach. Moving on to our assessment of policies and planning for adaptation. Our overall conclusion is that the country is not prepared for the effects of climate extremes faced today or in the future. While some level of adaptation planning exists in most areas, highquality adaptation planning is lacking. Only three out of 46 outcomes achieve a good policy and planning score. These outcomes are planning for resilient national road and national rail networks and planning to ensure that financial institutions are adequately disclosing climate risks. In contrast, 60% of outcomes show limited or insufficient progress. This means the country has major gaps in adaptation efforts across policies and plans and across all areas of our assessment. The majority of policies and plan scores have also not changed since our previous 2023 progress report. This reflects that adaptation has not been a key priority for policy development across government. Where our assessment of policies and plans has changed, it has changed for both better and worse. 11 policies and plan scores have improved across water supply, telecommunications, transport, finance, and business. However, four others have worsened, including in water demand, water system performance, and protection from river and coastal flooding, whilst missed statutory deadlines have degraded the overall quality of policies and plans for marine environments. These reduced scores reflect an inability to keep plans updated and aligned with their stated goals despite demonstrated delivery failures. I will now pass you back to Baroness Brown who will present the committee's recommendations to address the policy gaps highlighted in our assessment. Our assessment has once again shown that the UK's current approach to policym adaptation is not working. Adaptation is not the crossgovernment priority that it needs to be and this is holding back delivery. A refreshed cross-government approach is urgently needed to streamline and simplify how adaptation is considered in all government departments as well as to make policy more joined up and effective. We recommend four key areas of action to prepare the ground for a much stronger approach that can drive real change. The first area is to improve objectives and targets. The government must have a clear vision for a well- adapted UK underpinned by a set of specific and measurable sectoral targets. This is vital to give focus to what adaptation policy is seeking to achieve and also to assess progress. The government has recently signaled its desire to strengthen objectives on adaptation. This must now be taken forward urgently with a clear set of overarching adaptation objectives in key areas developed in 2025. These objectives must describe what climate resilient means for government departments and their different areas of responsibility for climate risk. Guidance is needed for departments to formulate a set of quantitative sectoral targets consistent with national adaptation objectives. The second area is to improve coordination across government. Adaptation remains coordinated by DERA while wider resilience matters are largely coordinated by the Cabinet Office. In general, adaptation and climate risks are still only weakly integrated with wider government efforts. Stronger and more effective coordination is needed across different activities, spending decisions, sectors, and departments. The third area is to integrate adaptation within all relevant policies. The next spending review needs to ensure that climate adaptation, both planning and action, is supported with sufficient resources across government. Public assets and critical public services such as the NHS need to be resilient to current and future weather so they can operate effectively. In the case of new infrastructure, critical assets such as the lowcarbon electricity system should not be built without considering what is needed to be future fit to avoid costly retrofitting. Finally, implement monitoring, evaluation, and learning across sectors. Adequate monitoring and evaluation underpinned by regular data collection and reporting are essential to track climate impacts and the effect of adaptation measures at a national level. They are also critical to ensure future planning learns from what is effective. The long-standing gap of an effective monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation is creating economic risks the country cannot afford. The government's policy agenda can also help close key policy gaps identified only if climate resilience is adequately incorporated in forthcoming plans. Our report identifies key areas where planning or additional policy could make a big difference to the UK's readiness for climate change. For land, nature, and food, a vital action is integrating the need for adaptation measures in key strategies currently being developed in DERA. They will set the direction of the sector for years to come. This includes the land use framework, the environmental improvement plan, the 25-year farming roadmap, and the food strategy. All of these risk not meeting their objectives without consideration of the UK's changing climate. Farmers and land managers also need to have clarity on how they will be supported to adapt their land for production, nature, and wider resilience, including from the government's environmental land management schemes. In infrastructure, the development of a 10-year infrastructure strategy is a key opportunity to build in adaptation to delivery across sectors. This includes setting out clear, resilient standards for infrastructure systems. Infrastructure funding settlements due to be finalized in the coming year need to ensure that adaptation measures can be deployed at scale to avoid locking in future climate impacts. These include road transport and gas and power networks. Similarly, water sector governance reform is currently being considered by government. It needs to ensure that the next regulatory settlement can fund and encourage more ambitious options to get the sector back on track with its demand and leakage reduction targets. Spatial planning for the future zerocarbon power system is being developed by the national energy system operator. It is vital that this planning and its delivery considers climate change to ensure generation and network assets are resilient and cited to minimize the risk of systems level impact during future extreme weather in the built environment and communities. The next period of the environment ay's flood and coastal erosion risk management investment program is due to start aligned with the new government spending settlement. The new program needs to include clear long-term targets on net change in flood risk, which are supported with sufficient funding and a clearly aligned delivery plan. Adaptation efforts to combat urban overheating remain weak and poorly monitored. The government should address this by setting out a dedicated long-term cross- sector plan to manage future heat risk and drive joined up action across government and beyond. The government's plans to build 1.5 million new homes must be plans to build comfortable, climate resilient homes in well- adapted places. In the area of health and well-being, the UK Health Security AY's adverse weather and health plan is a useful step forward in improving the coordination of the health response to extreme weather. However, further development is needed to improve this plan. This includes covering all climate risks and setting out how health adaptation efforts can be monitored effectively. The government has set out a process to develop a 10-year plan to build an NHS fit for the future. As part of this, strengthened health systems adaptation frameworks are needed to ensure any new investments and assets can make the NHS more resilient to climate extremes today and in the future. In the economy, barriers remain to effective action by businesses, including provision of appropriate information and access to finance for adaptation measures. Government needs to deliver on its commitments to ensure that businesses can access information needed to manage their own risks. This is particularly important for small and medium-sized businesses, which often struggle the most today. To support effective disclosure of climate risks and adaptation actions by companies, the roll out of sustainable disclosure requirements needs to better integrate and streamline requirements for adaptation related disclosure. Financing for adaptation remains a barrier across the economy. The commitment for an adaptation finance action plan needs to be delivered to set out how the government intends to mobilize private investment into adaptation actions. Finally, NAP 3 included a welcome recognition of international climate change risks for the first time. The government should now go further, including by developing a crossgovernment strategy to address some of the most impactful global climate risks such as migration and conflict. This should consider working with others to help maximize the impact of the UK's private and third sectors in tackling climate change around the world. This progress report comes near to the halfway point of the NAP 3 lifetime. It must serve as the turning point for the government to take a fresh approach to improving the nation's resilience. It is clear that we are not prepared for the climate impacts we experience today and we know the risks are growing. But there is no indication that the implications of these growing risks are understood. Without these changes, the country won't be prepared for its future weather extremes. Without these changes, we are creating a bill for the next decade that we may not be able to afford. Without these changes, lives are being put at risk. It is now up to the government to rise to this challenge. We will be providing updated evidence on the risks from climate change to the UK as part of the independent assessment for the fourth climate change risk assessment. We will also be sharing evidence on what will be required to deliver a well- adapted UK alongside the risk assessment in 2026. But we can't be clear enough about the message today. Do not wait until our next report to act. There is not a day to lose. My committee stands ready to support the government to ensure that the UK is truly resilient to the coming risks. Thank you.