Power Hour Live Trading 8-5-26

Hey, [music] it's the end of the day, almost time for the bell. How many options [music] will you sell? Fire up your platform. Get ready to enter. But first, [music] let's get the mindset centered. Hey. Hey, let's go. Uh, we're not here [music] to gamble. We're here to trade. We follow the plan. That's how we get paid. [music] Test it, trade it, have success. Find what works for you and forget the rest. Stats and probabilities is what we're about. Time to dismiss [music] greed and doubt. Focus on the process, not the money [music] and the profits. We'll flow like honey. Power live. Let's start the show. Come on, trade hackers, get ready to go. Zero day [music] options. Time to make bank. Get locked and loaded, then be ready to play. Hey. Hey everyone, welcome to Power Hour Live. Today's Wednesday, August 5th. Hope everybody's having a good Wednesday. The market's not going straight up today, so that's interesting. The S&P is only up four points. NASDAQ is down 90. Russell is down 10. And the Dow is up 355. Gold is up 4%. Silver's up over three and a half. Notes and bonds pretty flat. 10-year yield down about 4%. Oil down 69. Natural gas down about a half percent. Soybeans pretty flat. Wheat up almost 1%, corn down 1%, euro and the pound slightly green and Bitcoin up 1%. VIX contracting down 6% back to 15.50 currently. As far as my trades today, BIX so far so good. I did have one double stop early, but I've got quite a few open here. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven that have not been touched yet. So, we'll see what happens with those before the end of the by the end of the day. Uh, day trading, not too hot. Uh, minus 2500 on my day trades. AVGO, I took two trades. uh one was uh at previous day high right here kind of within the first 15 minutes caught two profit targets and then kind of fell apart. So I ended up that was still a little bit red minus 258 on that one and then when it tried to reclaim previous day high I got long again and let that one go too far. minus 2380 on that one, which is beyond my $2,000 max loss that I like to take on those. Uh, and then I took a previous day high trade in the Q's that was a loser as well. So when the market started to kind of fall apart and then I did have a nice trade in IWM um, right around here. Yeah, when it when it bounced back up to around the previous low of day, I got short and caught that move down for about plus 1500. So, that's my day trading. Uh I still have the number 203 double calendar or half of it from yesterday. Uh it's basically in the same spot as it was around the close yesterday. Still down. Hasn't really moved. So, we'll see. I may just I may just close that out by the end of the day. A move back up would definitely hurt it. [snorts] Um, what else? Oh, I've got a time the time fly I put on yesterday. And I'm still holding the the other one I have too. It's just there's no real point taking it off quite yet just in case we get lucky with a down move. But most likely it'll just take it off for a loss. I will take that off. So today's Wednesday, expires Friday. I don't want to wait till expiration day because those those deep in the money calendars can get a little funky to get out of. So I will close it tomorrow. Uh let's see what else. Oh, I put on a uh I posted in the hedged iron condor thread. transformed a hedged iron condor that I put on yesterday into a risk-free Rick. So, if we do get an end of day move, a big move, I can make up to about almost 5,500 on the wings. Uh one DTE iron condor has gone slightly green basically break even. If we keep bouncing that one will get green. Had some really good decay today but the uh move down was a little bit too much for it so far. And I think that's about it. Oh, my AMD calendar spread, the earnings calendar I did yesterday is down a little bit. I think that is Yeah, it's slightly out of range here. Looks like it's down about 170 bucks maybe. And I think that's about it. Biggest movers today. SpaceX had earnings. It's down 12%. Trading just off lows of day. DraftKings down eight, Uber down six, AMD down six, Google down four. Biggest green, Shopify had earnings up over 18%, Nvidia's up over four and a half. MU's up three. We do have some earnings to play with after the bell today. We've got NQ, SNDK, A SU N, Fastly, Expedia, FIG. None of these are great as far as liquidity, but tradable. A couple of them are tradable. SNDK is a $1,400 stock. Yeah, the options are only two bucks wide. $1,400 stock. Good volume. So, that one's definitely tradable. It's going to be expensive. A little out of my price range for the amount of risk I like to do on these, but let's see what the stats say. Well, I mean, SNDK's only had five earning cycles anyway, so it's not going to show you too much. But for some reason, this data is not populating. O andQ's new also hasn't had 20 cycles. I guess it has. No, it's had 19. H. Yeah, for some reason the uh some of this data is not loading. A The expected move is loading. Let's look at a apploven. $425 stock and the options are about 50 cents wide. Volume in the hundreds per strike. Definitely tradable. Wait, did app 11 already announce? No. Yeah, it's tonight. Okay. Uh, let's see what else. Fastly, Expedia, fig, I wouldn't trade. Sound, I wouldn't trade. So, A or SNDK really And then as far as post earnings trades, yeah, Joseph T, the uh part of it's not loading like the the day after info post earnings day trading edge. And then the expected move that that yellow line here, it's not showing up. Yeah, something's up. Something's a little fishy. Oh, and then it doesn't show the post earnings info on AMD. Huh. All right. We'll have to dig into that. Uh I know AMD, which is down. AMD is down within its expected move. So, I'm not going to do a post earnings trade on that. But, it does have a tendency to move to uh drift over the next seven or 30 days. More so if it was beyond its expected move, which is pretty close. It's kind of right on the bubble. So, I could do a short post earnings trade in AMD. What I will do based on that info is I'm going to I'm going to just close my calendar instead of trying to play for a bounce. Oh, good idea. We'll go to staging here. Thank you. Um, okay. So, AMD post earnings info if it gaps down within the expected move. Oh, yeah. That's not H. In that case, I'm going to keep my calendar for now. Even even closing down exceeding the expected move is kind of mixed. I must have been thinking of a different one. Okay. Um, let's look at a $48 expected move exceeds the expected move 60% of the time. Oh yeah, big difference. And a lot of times these are pretty close to 5050. But yeah, you're right, Moel. It gaps up over the last five years, of the last 20 cycles, it's gapped up 16 out of 20 times. That's a little interesting. I'll go with that flow. What' I say? 48 expected move. I'm going do this in a no risk to the upside. side peak of the butterfly right around the expected move. filled at 691 priced at 420 to 490. Oh boy. Yeah, I went a little too bullish, didn't I? Yeah, you're right. I thought that I thought that delta that I was choosing for the short was a little bit low. My math isn't very good today. Joseph T, I was thinking we're trading at 445. That's what I was Yeah. But my long strikes at 445. Yeah. So the the midpoint should really be more like where we at 420. Yeah. So 470. Yeah. Good call. Good call. I'm going to leave mine. I'm going bullish. I'm a I'm a bull. I like the stats on the bull here. So I'm going to go overly bullish by accident. Disney had earnings this morning. What's Dizzy Dizzy Dizzy Disney doing? Gap up. still within its expected move though. So with Disney gap up within its expected move kind of mixed over the next seven and 30 days. So I'm not I wouldn't do a post earnings trade in that. Uber UBA is gapped up within its expected move or gap down within its expected move. It's a little bit lower but still within its expected move. So it gap down within Yeah, a little positive drift lower but not too much. All right. Yeah. So, I'm just going to do just [clears throat] going to do the A trade. Speaking of Flux, Daddy's been in the workshop making new toys for his children. After the bell today, I've got a big announcement for Flux. I think you guys are going to like it. [snorts] Uh, is that a? Yeah, it kind of it well it kind of looked like that, but I got I got filled way better than mid price. So, I mean the volume and the bid ask are pretty tight for a 400 $425 stock. Two bucks wide. I mean, not not super great, but some of the some of the strikes even have thousands of contracts traded today. Yeah, mine looks a little goofy like that too, Kelvin. That's why I'm not going to wait till expiration day. Probably going to have to pay up on some bid asks to get out as it is. Russell hitting new lows of day. NASDAQ pretty much there as well. Let's see what the old M homes are looking like today. Okay, still got a lot of time, but 7740s. We're trading for a dollar 255ish. Uh, let me see here. I got to do something real quick. Give me just a minute. Okay. Market's feeling a little heavy coming into the end of the day. Oh, nice Lando. I never uh I never came close to having a chance to do that. Did you put yours on? You must have put yours on later. Not at the open. Uh Joseph T. So, Thinker Swim um treats rut calendars as naked options. I I I went to do one a couple months ago and or maybe I was trying to do a t a DC time machine or something. Anyway, it kept showing crazy buying power and so I messaged I messaged toss. Although you're on tasty, I think, right? So, you might be able to do it. It's a it's a Schwab thing. I believe. Is that what you're seeing when you tried to do a wreck calendar? It's untradeable, right? Oh, you're on both. You said what about on tasty? Okay. See you can do tasty. Obviously rut is way less liquid than spx, but I used to trade rut quite a bit. Haven't traded much rut in a while. S&P just barely above unchanged on the day. About a about a eight or nine point range here for the last few hours. Uh, nor it's probably if you have a bunch of like theoretical positions in your analyze tab that definitely gets tossed to grinding. In general, mine doesn't get slower, but the analyze does if I have a bunch of trades in there. But guess what guys? I have a solution for you. Going to share it with you after the bell today. Not going to have to worry about that anymore. Got about six and a half minutes till the ultimate flux capacitor. Watson I'm not getting into the brokerage business. I will say that yet. NASDAQ and S&P kind of broke this little flaggy down little bare flag. NASDAQ's getting a little heavier. No real momentum though. Just kind of chop slop. Meta debuted its first AI coding agent called Muse Code today. Just kind of scanning the financial juice headlines. Meta, it's been going down all day just until that's probably probably when that news came out and got a little bounce. Yeah, Amazon. I was just a day early. I'm never wrong on my trades, Watson. I'm just sometimes I'm just early. [laughter] Or like in ABGO's case, I was just a day late. Yesterday was the day to go long, not today. Just a little late or a little early. What are you going to do? My Bicks are definitely liking this afternoon lack of movement. See what else we got here today. Microsoft's AI sales mostly come from OpenAI. Okay. Iran says no recent talks with the US have been held in recent days. Google's chief scientist leaving to start his own AI company. Google didn't like that news. Oil back down around $75 a barrel. Just a couple weeks ago was up towards 94ish. MOC in less than two minutes. 40 butterfly trading for about a dollar 30-ish I'm going to go ahead and leave my 203 on. It's kind of in the same spot it was yesterday. I did not get the one minute warning from Financial Juice. >> 10 seconds. >> Oh, there we go. 10 seconds. Marked on close imbalance. S&P 500 buyside 849 million. NASDAQ 100 buyside 778 million. Dow 30 buyside 215 million. Mag 7 by side 427 million. >> Small buy side 800 million. >> Meta CEO Zuckerberg says Meta is releasing the Muse code in beta today. We're also seeing voice news disconnected. Not great price action these last few hours for my homes as far as very little movement but and a small MOC. I'm still going to trade it though. beta. I didn't I don't What was he talking about? Are you saying beta like if something's in software is in beta? Yeah. Okay. Oh, when he was talking about meta. Got it. Didn't Did not catch that. I didn't realize the British said beta. [laughter] I got a question I've been meaning to ask you, Elliot. How come some British people can't pronounce their Rs? How come they use W for Rs? Is that like a certain area of the UK? What is that all about? like you don't a lot of British people don't but there's a certain portion of British people who cannot pron cannot pronounce their Rs like like have you heard um what's the guy's name that does the trading podcast Riz I think uh yeah words of wisdom that dude cannot pronounce his Rs >> [laughter] >> Is it is it just him? But I but I've heard other other British people like I think it's a certain area or something. You haven't noticed that? Huh? I'm gonna go halfsize Mahomes today. It's like my my my youngest son when he was like three and he couldn't pronounce his Rs. And he used to always say little will we little will we [laughter] instead of little little I can't even say it now. 40 butterfly trading for a buck 80. I'll go ahead and put in an order at two bucks on the 40s. Half size. Almost five minutes to go. SPX at 38. Right in between strikes. Yeah, it's like Elmer Fed. Exactly. It's like the British Elmer Fed. [laughter] My [snorts] one DTE just closed minus 106 bucks. My Mahomes just filled the two bucks. Definitely early compared to yesterday. You guys, who got filled yesterday? Was that like 30 seconds to go? I think I bailed with I mean it was under a minute when I bailed. SPX down to 37. There's 35 handle under 35. S&P dipping into the red. Bouncing between 35 and 36. under 35 about two and a half minutes. There's 34 33 Let's see where my closest bit puts are. Don't think they're too close. 7705 7720 I think is my closest. 77 25. Yeah. So 7725. So that's another 10 points lower. Less than two minutes below 33. Nothing too crazy here. Let's just simmer into the close right about here. One minute. All you got to do is stay down for one minute. SPX. There's 30 VIX back above yesterday's lows. There's 29 28 27. Okay, that's enough. That's enough. Got 20 seconds. Don't need to be a hero with 20 seconds left. SP Oh my goodness. 22. Hold on a bit. No, I just got stopped. >> Order partially filled. >> Darn it. >> Order filled. >> Order partially filled. >> Set to have a pretty stellar day on the just crushed it. But Mahomes was a wee easy winner. A wheezy winner. All right, all that is a wrap for the day. Hope everybody had a great day. I'm going to jump off here and record a little video of my new toy for you guys. All right, all have a great night. We'll chat with you soon. Cheers.