Power Hour Live Trading 8-3-26

Hey, it's the end of the [music] day. Almost time for the bell. How many options will you sell? Fire up your platform. Get ready to enter. But first, let's get [music] the mindset center. Hey. Hey, let's go. Uh, we're not [music] here to gamble. We're here to trade. We follow the plan. That's how we get paid. Test it, trade it, have success. Find what works for you [music] and forget the rest. Stats and probabilities is what we're about. Time to dismiss greed and doubt. Focus on the process, not the money and the profits. [music] We'll flow like honey. Power our life. Let's start the show. Come on, trade hackers, [music] get ready to go. Zero day options. Time to make bank. Get locked and loaded, then be ready to blank. Hey. [music] Hey everyone, welcome to Power Hour Live. Today's Monday, August 3rd. Welcome to August, my friends. Welcome to August with a three standard deviation move in one day. S&P is up 116 points. That's about 1 and a.5%. NASDAQ was the weakest this morning. It is now the strongest, up 1.8%, up a cool 512 points. Russell's up 50. Dow's up 687. Uh, gold is basically flat. Silver's up about 3/4 of a percent. Notes and bonds are green. continue yield down almost 1%. Oil's down over five. Natural gas up one. Soybeans, wheat, and corn are all green. Wheat and corn are up almost 2%. Euro and the pound both down uh small. Bitcoin up over 1 and a.5% and the VIX [snorts] only down 1.3% on this big move up. Started to actually move higher as we're pushing into new highs of day. Uh but VIX is currently at 15.78 with just over 16 near the open. Uh as far as my trading today, had a couple good day trades in the uh in the live stream. I was good for about 1,400. Had long calls in Tesla and long calls in MSTR. I just closed out a double calendar. [clears throat] Good news is I did half size because I was thinking about potentially just tunching in and adding. Never did. So, took a loss on that one, closed it out, but smaller size, so that helped a little bit. I'm also in a 1DTE iron condor that is getting throttled. Unfortunate part about that was the VIX almost opened lower, which would have disqualified it from entry, but it kind of popped up right before the open, which qualified it, but that one's getting hammered. Uh, my bottle just closed that out. Near end of day. What else? Oh, time fly. I posted in the option trade option selling trade channel. my you know I was considering potentially adjusting that uh which I'm I'm glad I didn't now because any adjustment would have kind of added risk to it but um but uh you know obviously with this huge runup now it's to the point where it's almost at its upper upper loss amount and so like even if S&P goes up another 50 points tomorrow um I would only lose lose another like couple hundred bucks. Uh but if we do happen to reverse and go lower, then could be back on the dance floor. So really no point in cutting it at this point. My plan was to kind of cut it at the end of the day, but that's when we were uh 60 70 points lower. [snorts] So that's my plan on that one. Still have four days to expiration on those front options. They expire this Friday. Uh so we'll see what happens there. And what else? Oh, bicks. My bicks are actually green. Most call sides stopped. Uh, a couple of put sides stopped on my 113 and 125 tunch. Uh, I've still got two unstopped and so even still a couple possible pins if we don't do anything wild into the close. But up small green on those right now. Uh, so I think that's it as far as my trades today. Just doing a lot of clotting. got something in the pipeline for you all that I think you're going to like coming to a flux near you. Not ready to give a sneak peek yet, but maybe tomorrow. What about you guys? Anything good? Anything good today? Anybody just hold some longs all day that are printing for you? Ben Brown, I saw you get you caught a good piece of that Tesla move. Nice. Elliot caught some long calls. Good. Good blind PLTR. Oh, are you talking about earnings? Let's see. PLTR after the close. Yeah, we'll take a look at that here in a second. Trader boy, you caught the post earnings move on Microsoft. Nice. I didn't I didn't take any of those post earnings trades as I was traveling and just didn't want the uh exposure while I was while I wasn't really paying attention too. Good. So, that's good though. I'm glad you caught that. >> [laughter] >> Naughty Dog's playing his 401k long. It's good. Hey, that's nothing wrong with that. S&P a stones throw away from all-time highs, my friends. Looks like S&P hit a alltime high of about 67621ish back on June 2nd. We are almost there. What a rally from FOM from the FOMC dip. That's what we call a short squeeze, my friends. That is what we call a short squeeze. By the way, Naughty Dog, I was looking at these the other day, or today, I mean, I was making a comment a while back about these big software companies like Service Now, um, CRM, and Adobe. Those are kind of the main three that I that I watch. But my comment, I think it was during a power hour and it was right around it was right around this like June 1, June, end of May, early June. I was saying that I thought these things were bottoming. Naughty Dog, I got to give credit where credit's due. Naughty Dog says, "No, I think there's another 10% down before before we rally." And that's kind of what happened. Naughty Dog got another big dip. I don't know what percent. Actually, more than 10%. Looks more like 30%. Another Now they're bouncing again. See, I I don't just rub it in your face when you're wrong, Naughty Dog. I give you credit when you're right as well. Unfortunately, you didn't even take the trade that you talked about, so it doesn't count. [laughter] Naughty Dog's just he's like an economist. He he just says a bunch of stuff. Sometimes it comes right, sometimes it doesn't, you know, just highlights the stuff that that he gets right. Anyway, what's Bitcoin doing? Bitcoin's up a little bit. Gapped down a little bit, but rallied. Been chopping around previous day high all day. Bitcoin's due. Bitcoin's due for a run. Haven't started really dipping my toe back in any Bitcoin. >> [laughter] >> No, but I've seen our rookie wide receiver making catches like you've never seen. Can't remember his name now off the top of my head. Lando, what's our rookie receivers's name? Cyrus Allen. Yes, he looks like a good one. [laughter] rifling balls off our O line helmets. I have I haven't seen those highlights. I must be my my feed must be all positive. Mahomes highlights. [laughter] [snorts] Apple's been a little weaker all day. Apple's down a little over 1%. Biggest movers, we've got Nebus up 14.8%. Lemonade up 10. Oracle up nine. Boeing up seven. Meta's up six and a half. Yeah, Meta's been strong all day, too. Actually, most of its strength was in the first 30 to 45 minutes and it's just been sideways. I did buy some SpaceX shares last week and I and SpaceX announces is that tomorrow? Yeah, tomorrow after the close. So, tomorrow I'm going to sell some more puts. and either collect the premium if it bounces or try to get assigned some more stock if it dips for earnings. [laughter] Yeah, that's not really the the headline you want. That could be taken in a lot of different directions. Let's all watch it together. >> [music] >> That's good. Who's your team, Naughty Dog? Let me guess. Whoever's winning that year. All right. As far as earnings, PLTR PLTR has exceeded its expected move 55% of the time over the last five years. has a current expected move this earning cycle of 11.9% or $14.98. If it gaps up beyond the expected move, it has a tendency to continue intraday, the day after earnings. Pretty solid stats on that. If it gaps down within the expected move, it has a tendency to really run lower the day after earnings. The gaps up and down are pretty even over the last 20 cycles. 10 and 10. Odds are a little have been a little worse than 50/50 trying to play for an inside the move. Although it has well two cycles ago it gapped outside the expected move but kind of came back in. So call it one, two, three, four. last five cycles have stayed within the expected move post earnings. We've got some nice drift in the direction of the earnings move. So if it if it closes the the day after earnings within the expected move has a tendency to move about 10% over the next seven days. If it closes up exceeding the expected move, it's moved on average almost 30% over the next seven days, 40% over the next 30. And then pretty similar on the downside. If it if it closes down after earnings, the day after earnings had has a nice tendency to drift lower whether it's within or exceeding the expected move to the downside. So, I like the post earrings. I don't I don't think I'm going to do anything the actual earnings announcement. If I did, I'd probably go directional. It's been beaten up pretty good. All-time highs of around 207 and it's down at 126. Noel's going bull. You doing a broken wing fly? [snorts] Yeah, I might do that. I might jump on that with you. Do a little something like this. Little something something. See if I can get filled at 118. No fill. Looks more like 122, I think. No fill at 122. Fill at 123. All right, let's see what old Alex Karp has to say. I'm sure uh Watson's going bearish on Mr. Karp. Am I right, Watson? Well, S&P stopped going up at least. Not coming down, but stopped going up. Hit a high of 76104 for the day so far. 100 points down by the end of the day. Yeah, why not? It's just one Trump tweet away. It's got a two-point down move. That's one of the bigger moves down we've seen today. Let's see what are these Mahomes trading at. They may they may be ready a little early today. 05 butterfly. Looks like they're priced at around a$120 maybe. Still some time left. As far as other earnings this week, tomorrow before the open, we've got Fizer, McDonald's, and Caterpillar. After the close tomorrow, SpaceX, Open Door, Alab, and AMD before the open Wednesday, Shopify, Uber, Circle, Disney after the close Wednesday, Oio andQ, SNDK, Apploven, Soundhound, Fastley, Expedia, and Fig. for the open Thursday. QBTS, Celsius, DD Dog. After the closed Thursday, Airbnb, Briatoni, Donkey Kong before the open Friday, Okalo. Yeah, I haven't been transforming a Naughty Dog. I've just been going ride or die fly. I did a uh I don't remember how long, like a couple years ago, I did a comparison live for about I want to say like three or four months where I had a bot open up a fly and I just let that ride and then I manually did my Mahomes with the transformer and [snorts] I compared them for quite a while and they were they were relative atively similar performance during that period. Um, and so I just kind of ended up sticking with the fly. Less commission, less management. So that's what I've been doing. I don't remember the last time I I transformed one actually. Obviously, the benefit is if you transform it and it hits your minimum profit, you make less, but you've also remove the risk in case it bounces back. And then and then if you transform and it has a big reversal, you've got an opportunity for even more profit, which obviously rarely happens because it would need to make a pretty significant move the other way. But yeah, I've just kind of kind of like the uh put on the fly and let it ride. Hope you get a five-point move. Got about nine minutes till Watson, if we get a uh 18 billion cell number, you might get your 100 points. It's got to be at least 18 billion, though. Yeah, we have had quite a few kind of three, four, five, 10point moves in the last seconds lately. about six points off of highs of day. Don't look now, but we've got a little down move going. That's right. 59 bugeye. Let Naughty Dog know about that. >> [snorts] >> As far as the economic calendar, we had ISM manufacturing and prices, ISM manufacturing, PMI and manufacturing prices 30 minutes after the market opened today. That didn't really do anything. We've got Jolt tomorrow, 30 minutes after the open. We've got ADP non-farm employment change pre-market Wednesday. ISM services PMI 30 minutes after the market opens Wednesday. Unemployment claims pre-market Thursday. And then NFP and other employment data pre-market Friday. By the way, if you're maybe a little bit of a newer trader or even an experienced trader and you had some trades on today and you were like, "Oh man, like you're kicking yourself like why didn't I cut that? Why didn't I manage that differently?" Keep in mind like this is literally a three standard deviation move we're seeing. Like this doesn't happen very often. And so, you know, I could look at like my time fly, for example, and be like, I should have cut that earlier. But, you know, I was looking to potentially adjust it, but it it like price never really even I mean, it got a little pause there for a minute. you know, maybe I could have done something, but you know, this is just one of those moves that you can't you can't plan for, right? You you can't depending on what type of trader you are, how you trade, any type of delta neutral type situation. I mean, this is just a this is just a day that you have to be like, "Yep, the market won. The market got me." And the and the you know the way that you combat that is position size. So if you're really struggling about a loss you took because you know this got away from you, it's probably most likely because of position size. You know, I was joking earlier looking at Flux. Um, looking at the zero DTE dashboard, you know, we within the first 10 minutes, we smashed through the one standard deviation level. And then by 11:00 a.m. Central, we had hit the two standard deviation move. Well, I don't I don't have a three standard deviation move level on here because it just never happens. >> [laughter] >> Right? So, you got to kind of take that into context. MOC in about 3 minutes. Never fade a superstar, Bosch. Remember that. Never fade a superstar. Looks like the 05 butterfly is still only trading around a$120 or so. >> [laughter] >> I was just reading through the juice comments. Trump, one of the Trump lines, it says, "Trump, I want to give Iran every last chance before decapitation." [gasps] Interesting choice of words. 1 minute now until we get the market on close imbalance. One minute. Yeah, we've had a pretty tight little range here, which wouldn't necessarily be the best thing for Momes. If it continues, obviously, I'm still going to play it just based on the range we've had today. We'll see what the MOC is, too. I'm going to I'm going to play normal size, but really if we have a range outside of the expected move, I >> 10 seconds >> typically going to play regular size. Don't like that we've come to a screeching halt, but market one close imbalance S&P 500 buy side one spot 2 billion. NASDAQ 100 buy side 890 million. Dow 30 buyside 727 million. Mag 7 buyside 270 million. Butterfly is still around 12130. They're still keeping They're still keeping the flies a little bit cheap for the lack of movement here the last two hours. He said 1.2 billion by side. It printed 1.4 billion on the text on financial juice. SPX back up to 07. up to 08. Still haven't seen any prints above a$150. back to 05. All right, I'm going to put an order in at 05 at two bucks. And I'm going to put one at O. Got a O and 05 working. Coming up on five minutes to go. If it gets closer to one of the strikes >> in 10 minutes time now at 5 minutes past 400 p.m. Eastern time, we are expecting earnings from Palanteer second quarter 2026. My O looks like it could be filling soon. It's dancing all over my order at two bucks. man. Still no fill. Sitting there. Sitting there. It wants it. Cancel my05. H surprised that's not filling. Three minutes to go. All right, I'm going to put my05 back in. I guess it's getting close. Coming up on the two-minute mark. I would have liked to get filled in the OOS's. There we go. Filled on the O's. All right, let's get a move away. Got 90 seconds to move away from O. sitting at 02. Bug eye, you're on the 05s. I'm on the O's right now. I I like the05s better. We We've got 20 seconds. There's 99. 10 seconds. Got to move. It likes that. Oo. Uhoh. >> Order [bell] cancel. >> And that looks like pretty close to an O pin. >> 76.49. Order cancelled. Mahomes sacked in the back field. All right, all that's a wrap for the first day of August. We'll be back at it for the second day of August tomorrow, which is August 4th. Live streaming in the morning for day trading. Back for power hour. Everybody have a good night. Hopefully we don't get another three standard deviation move tomorrow. Everybody have a good night. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers.