Power Hour Live Trading 8-26-26

Hey, it's the end of the day, almost time for the bell. How many options will you sell? Fire up your platform. Get ready to enter. But first, let's get the mindset centered. Hey. Hey, let's go. Uh, we're not here to gamble. We're here to trade. We follow the plan. That's how we get paid. Test it, trade it, have success. Find what works for you and forget the rest. Stacks and probabilities is what we're about. Time to dismiss greed and doubt. Focus on the process, not the money and the profits. We'll flow like honey. Power our life. Let's start the show. Come on, trade hackers, get ready to go. Zero day options. Time to make bank. Get locked and loaded, then be ready to blank. Hey. Hey everyone, welcome to Power Hour Live. Today is August 26th. Today's Wednesday. We've got the S&P up 10, NASDAQ up 69, Russell is down two, and the Dow is down 82. Gold down 1%, silver down almost 1%, notes and bonds a little bit red, tenure yield up about a quarter percent, oil down a half percent, natural gas up three and a third. Uh, grains on the move today. Soybeans up 2%, wheat up 6 and a half, corn up a little over 2%. Euro and the pound are lower by about a quarter to a half percent and Bitcoin is down just under 1%. VIX contracting down almost 1% currently at 15.31 as far as my trading today. My bicks have gotten slapped around a little bit. Two double stops and the rest one-sided. So, those will end up a little bit red today. Uh, as far as other trades, um, as far as closed trades today, so I closed my time fly, ended up booking a little over 5%. I'm always trying to my my target is 10% on those, but um, decided just to take that off with Nvidia earnings. Not too big of a move, especially to the downside. Would have put that in the red. So, I just took that off. I plan to put another one on either tomorrow or Friday. Uh these others are day trades. Uh so took a loss on the Q's on a uh long call at pre-market high. Uh had a winner in Meta at previous day high. Also calls uh IWM. That was a little scalp. I just kind of decided I didn't want to be in it. I didn't even post that one. I was just a $41 winner. And then S&P had a nice trade. I was actually up over 3K on this one. gave gave a little bit back. Uh tried to add one last time and it continued ripping higher but still 1,700. So plus 2942 on those. As far as open trades, I've got two DC time machines that expire tomorrow. This one is number 209 that was put on as a 67 last Friday. It's in nice range. Hopefully we can keep it that way. My 34 from Monday also transformed. It's a little bit outside the range, so need a little bit of a down move on that one. I've still got uh number 208 that hasn't really given much profit. This is the one I started off with a put calendar. Added a uh a second put calendar to turn it into a double and it's just been kind of chopping around between one and 3% profit for a couple days now. So, I've been thinking about if I want to keep this on through Nvidia earnings. It has a pretty decent range. The expected move in S&P between now and tomorrow's close is only 50 points. You know, 50 point move either direction's no big deal. Obviously, an outsized move outside the expected range is the is the risk, but um I'll decide here shortly. So, those are my current positions. Currently got the S&P pushing new highs of day as we speak. Biggest individual movers PLTR up 3%, Oracle's up three, Apple's up one and a half. Biggest red MRNA down almost eight. HIMS down six and a half. Roblox down four. Nebia's down three. Crypto's down. Coinbase Hood MSTR all down 2% or more. famous circle. NASDAQ also ticking new highs of day. Russell closer to mid-range. Oh, I did transform a uh so I had to be away uh from my computer yesterday. Uh so we didn't have power hour. Um and I forgot to put on my hedge iron condor before the end of the day before I left yesterday. So I ended up putting it on right at the open. Was able to transform that into a risk-free Rick. If this market wants to keep pushing above 7715 would give me 6K. Anything above 7705 would give me more than minimum profit of right at a thousand. And then speaking of hedged iron condors, I'm going to put one on for tomorrow. Diddier, are you on here? There's Diddier. So, have you set one of these up yet? You know how to do it or were you just Were you asking if I was going to do one for tomorrow? Was that because you needed help or you were just wondering if I was going to put one on? Okay. Yeah, I do these. I'm I'm doing I've been doing these every day. So, the hedges are definitely more expensive than normal. some I'm usually getting those for around $4 and change. They're about they're a little over five and that's certainly because of Nvidia earnings. So, go ahead and throw this on. Got filled on the iron condor at 1160 on the Rick at 5:15. Well, can you hear me? Oops. That's what I was trying to post. Well, no mic. No. Anybody else? Everybody hear me? Okay. All good. Okay. Well, well, he he forgot how to work his speakers. You know, sometimes he just forgets. So, Nvidia, let's talk Nvidia. If you caught the navigation trading show yesterday, me and Mr. McNeel, there's Mr. McNeel. He's here in the flesh. Uh, Nvidia has an expected move. Uh oh. Why are we fetching? There we go. Nvidia has an expected move of 5.9% or 12.41. Tends to stay inside of its expected move 74% of the time. Over the last 5 years, it's only exceeded its expected move 26% of the time. One thing to watch for tomorrow, if we gap up inside the expected move, it actually has a tendency to sell off. And and when it's when it's gapped up inside the expected move, it's averaged minus 4.7%. That's the day after earnings. Nvidia definitely has a lower expected move than it has any any time over the last five years really. You can just visually see these yellow lines have gotten a little bit more narrow than they've been over the last five years. Couple times it's been pretty close, but uh certainly much bigger expected moves in Nvidia compared to this one. As far as the 7 days and 30 days after earnings, really the biggest biggest tendencies if it exceeds the expected move to the upside, it'll continue higher. If it exceeds the expected move, oh wait, no, that's within. If it closes up exceeding the expected move, it has a tendency to drift higher. If it closes down within the expected move, it has a tendency to move lower, but there hasn't been any exceeding the expected moves to the downside. So, that's a that's not a data point. So, what am I going to do? I am going to do a I'm going to do a a calendar, a delta neutral calendar for the inside the move, but gave me some inside information and he said it's going up. So, I'm going to skew a little bit to the upside because he would never he would never do me wrong. He can't hear me right now. But so what I'm going to do is go to the two-day options. I'm going to use the 220 strike on the call side. Buy a calendar. I'm going to go out to the se 18 for my longs. So, that's what I'm going to do. See how See if I what I can get filled out here. No fill at 260. filled at 263. All right, I'm in. Little little bump out of Nvidia, but not too much. That's what we're looking for. Uh, Crowd Strike also announces after the bell. It's got about a $16 expected move on $190 stock, which is 8.3%. Crowd Strike also has a tendency to stay within the expected move. It has 78% of the time over the last five years. It's only had 18 earnings announcements. So instead of 20 in the last five years, it's only had 18 because it's a little bit newer. If Crowd Strike gaps down the day after earnings, that has a tendency to to bounce on an average of 3.1 or 3.9% depending on if it's inside or outside the expected move. And if it gaps up inside the expected move, it has a tendency to bounce. So, there's been one occurrence where it gapped up beyond the expected move and it dropped 10%. And then on the 7 and 30-day lookout, it definitely has a tendency to go in the direction of the earnings move. Whether it gap, whether it closes up within, exceeding, goes down within or exceeding, it tends to follow that pretty heavily. I'm not going to do uh let's see, let me look at the options. I stopped day trading it because it was a little spready. Only 15 cents wide at the money on the call side, about 30 cents wide on the put side. Looks pretty liquidity looks good. Well, still can't hear. Uh, I'm going to do a quick restart of the uh of the live stream, guys. Sometimes there's random one or two people who can't hear. So, give me a minute. I'm going to restart. Noel, can you hear me. Oh, it was AirPods. Moel, you made me restart the live stream for everyone and it was your AirPods. Oh my goodness gracious. Uh, let's see. Yeah. Okay. So, I was looking at Crowd Strike. Nothing. Moel. Okay. Uh, let's see. Set 18. Don't Elliot, don't don't give him encouragement. It's It's on him. Let's be honest. Lando, can you help the poor guy out? Do you have anything? You have anything to help him out with? He can hear it. He can hear it. He's just acting like he can't. All right, I'm going to go neutral in uh Crowd Strike. Try to get filled at 425. Filled at 425 in crowd. We also have Salesforce about a $14.5 expected move on a $200 $25 stock. So about 7%. It also has a nice tendency to stay within its expected move. Um, let's see. How are the options in CRM? Not bad. 40 cents on the puts. Uh, call side, 30 cents on the puts. Good volume. All right, I guess I'm going to do three. I'm going to do three today, kids. Try to get filled at 318 on CRM. Filled at 318. Somebody said Marll. What is that? Tomorrow. See, I must I don't know. I must not have that on my list. Let me double check. Uh, let's see. M RVL 8:27 after the market. Okay, so tomorrow after the market. Okay, I'll get that one added to flux. All right. So, the indices dipping a little bit. S&P back below previous day high. Yeah, I'm in Mahomes today. Nor Maybe we'll get a little Nvidia earnings leak right before the bell. Mary D, I consider myself a newbie. I've completed the Transformer lessons. Where do I find the training on Flex? I think you mean Flux, but um yeah, what I would do is Okay, if you're looking at my screen up top here, uh there's a there's a how-to guide. That's the help button. You can click on that. You can search there. It gives you a uh for each tab. It kind of breaks it down and and goes through the details of what all the features are in each tab. Uh, the other thing you can do is go to the what's new button and anytime I've added or or done something new, I've done a little video uh plus listed kind of what what's just been added. So, um, it's not terribly long. I mean each each one of these if you go down to the very first date when we started this April 10th um you know there's a little five six minute video each time so you can kind of see you can if you're really interested you can see how it's progressed from the very beginning or you can just kind of click through these and look uh at the list of things that were done on that update and then decide if you want to you know watch the video and and learn a little bit more about it. But, um, both of those are good ways to kind of start to get to know it. Got about eight minutes until Mary D. Have you ever seen Back to the Future? Michael J. Fox. That's where Flux came from because it started out as a software for the DC time machine. So we we're using the flux capacitor to guide our time machines. Joseph T come came up with the name flux. Joseph T, are you on here? Guess not. All right. He's not on here, so I'm going to take credit. I gave it the name Flux. Okay. So, I mean, we haven't we didn't make it to either expected move today, but We've had some decent range. I think I'll go full Mahomes. Uh oh. Everybody be quiet. Moel is back on. SPX is trading at 85. 85 butterfly is trading for about a buck 60, buck 50. Yeah, BB, I'm going to do a class on the hedged iron condor. I've just been posting the uh I've just kind of been posting my thoughts and my trades and kind of what I'm doing on the uh in that in that thread. until I kind of work through all the nuances. So, you're kind of just watching me kind of work through the strategy right now. But, um, but yeah, I just want to make sure I've traded it for long enough and kind of work through all the nuances before I before I put out a class. But yeah, I'm definitely going to do that. Moel, did what did you do for Nvidia? Did you do an upside calendar 220 strike? Did you take any others? Little less than five minutes till MOC. I'm gonna go ahead and leave on my number um what is that number 208 which is that double calendar that I started with a single and added to a double Um, let's see. We had preliminary GDP tomorrow. There's some Oh, yeah. Jackson Hole Symposium starts tomorrow. So, you never know. You could hear some random speech or some kind of comments trigger some market movement market moving stuff out of that. But Friday is the big day where Worsh speaks at the at Jackson Hole and that's at 9:00 a.m. Central. So 30 minutes after the market opens. Nope. No rate decision. Just worse chatting it up. That's on Friday. Tomorrow it doesn't it doesn't say anything really scheduled for Jackson. It just says Jackson Hole Symposium. All right, a little over two minutes till MC 85 butterfly still around a $150 or so. Pushing up to 87. looked like Mahomes yesterday was kind of a scratch. I was just I was reading through the chats later after the close. >> One minute. 1 minute now to begin the marker and close the minus data. Nor you're you're referring to yourself in the third person as Poppy now. Champagne Poppy. From now on, everybody has to call Nor Poppy if they want to address him. 10 seconds. Mark and closing balance. S&P 500 by side 1 billion. NASDAQ 100 by side 231 million. Dow 30 buy side 240 million. Maximum buy side 275 million. >> 1 billion by side. Back down to 87. Right in between strikes. We need to pick one. 90 butterfly looks like it's up to $1.70 maybe. down to 86. All right, I'm going to I'm going to put in an order at two bucks on the 85. And on the 90 got it surrounded. 85 is getting close. down to 83. Uh oh. Train's leaving the station without us. No fill at 85. There we go. filled partial. Half my lots got filled. You only going to give me half today. Down to 81. Still have six minutes. Lando's on the 80s. Ben Brown's on the 85s with me. Oh, there's a little dip. All right, I'm going to cancel my uh rest. I guess I get five today. down to 77. Let's get 75. Let everybody be a winner. Nor's on the 80s. Lando's on the 80s. Ben's on the 85s. Annette's on the 85s. Moell's on the 85s. Tony's on the 85s. Med flies on the 85. Back to 79. sitting on 80. So, for those of you who if you just went through the the Mahomes course recently, I talked about two different versions. One is just selling the butterfly and letting it letting it go, which is what I've been really doing for the last year and a half probably. the uh the transformer version where you're uh using a using a vertical to to remove the risk. I haven't been doing that. I did a comparison between the two for months and they ended up coming out about the same. So, either one is fine, but I've just kind of gravitated just to just to the ride or die fly. All right, sitting at 81. Two and a half minutes. Yeah, definitely Troy. If Nvidia drops in the whole the whole market's going to crash. We become part of China basically is what happens. There's 78. S&P barely green on the day. Got 90 seconds or 77. So the 80s are right at break even. The 85s are feeling good about themselves right now. It's unfortunate I only got filled on half mine. Some of you guys took my other orders, I think. Okay, we got one minute. There's 76. Let's make everybody a winner. Why not? Why not us? 76. It's touching the 75 handle. S&P dipping into the red for the day. 30 seconds. There's 74. getting a little dirty into the close. Mark Market's expecting a Nvidia drop 15. All right, 7 seconds. Uhoh, that was a nasty bounce. But back down. It's getting a little getting a little girrationy. Is that a word? It's girating. 7675 83. So, the 80s didn't quite get max profit, but we're all a winner. You guys are all winners in my book anyway. I don't care what Mahomes did to you today. >> Order cancelled. >> All right, all that's a wrap. Uh, I think Nvidia, it's usually a little bit after the bell, like 30 minutes or something like that, but we'll see what happens. All right, all take care. Have a good night. We'll talk to you soon. Day trading live in the morning at the open and then power hour back again tomorrow. Cheers.