Power Hour Live Trading 8-19-26

Hey, [music] it's the end of the day. Almost time for the bell. How many options will you sell? [music] Fire up your platform. Get ready to enter. But first, let's get the mindset centered. Hey. Hey, let's go. [music] Uh, we're not here to gamble. We're here to trade. We follow the plan. That's how we get paid. Test [music] it, trade it, have success. Find what works for you and forget the rest. Stats and probabilities is [music] what we're about. Time to dismiss greed and doubt. Focus on the process, not the money and the profits. We'll flow like honey. [music] Power our lives. Let's start the show. Come on, trade hackers, get ready [music] to go. Zero day options. Time to make bank. Get locked and loaded, then be ready to play. Hey. [music] Hey everyone, welcome to Power Hour live. Today is Wednesday, August 19th. Hope everybody has having a fantastic Wednesday. We've got the S&P up 22. We've got the Nasdaq down 36. Russell is up 12 and the Dow is up 117. Gold is up about 3.2%. Silver's up almost four. Notes and bonds are green. 10-year yield down a little over 1%. Oil's up a third. Natural gas is flat. Soybeans, wheat, and corn all finished uh higher by at least one and a half percent. Uh euro and the pound are are up and bitcoin is up almost 6%. VIX contracting down about 5 and a half% back under 15 currently at 14.98. Biggest movers, Watson's favorite, MSTR is up almost 12%. Hims [snorts] is up 11%. Coinbase up eight. Uh, Target Head earnings, Moel took me down on that one. It's up 5%. He told me it was going to go down. Uber's up four and a half. Hood's up four. Tesla's up three and a half. Biggest red Nebius down almost 12%. ABGO's down four. SNDK is down three and a half. AMD down three and a half. SpaceX down three. SPX had a little push up to its expected move early and then has been kind of trailing off since. It's right at yesterday's high. As far as my trading today, uh my bicks were red earlier. I got I had one double stop. My very first tunch got doubled up, but it's making a comeback. I'm up about a thousand right now. I've got several tunches. One, two, three. Three. Three potential pins still available. Trump Daddy is on the mic right now talking to our tech leaders, tech and crypto leaders. Uh I did a hedged iron condor that I put on yesterday right before power hour started. I got that locked up to remove all the risk. Did quite a few adjustments today. Just kind of scaling out of different legs. uh starting with a five lot and just kind of scaling out with one lots at a time. So it looks like a lot of trades, but it's just partials a lot of them. But uh minimum profit 860, max profit 7,300 if we were to make a big move down, max profit to the upside um 5,800, but that would also be a pretty decent move about 30 points higher. Uh, so most likely uh 855 profit, but we'll see. Maybe Trump will say something cool. Send things moving. Uh, day trades had a few uh just keeping my position size small. I had a um a nice winner in SPY as we kind of broke this upper trend line and the uh cryptos started moving up and some of the other stocks once it broke that trend line and I got long got out basically right at the tippy top with my last contract. So that was a nice trade. Um, let's see. What were my other ones? Other one was my loser was PLTR and PLTR was I was trying to get long at previous day high. Got it. Hit one profit target and then it kind of fell apart. So, I just closed out. and then also took some puts on the Q's. That was a winner. And that was under previous day low. So I caught a little bit of that that down move down to the lows of day before it bounced. Still holding my time fly. Did a couple adjustments on that yesterday. It's fine. Kind of right right in the middle of the butterfly. I've got uh still got my my bu calendar on that needs a pretty decent bounce for that one to get green by Friday. I took a target calendar for earnings. Ike skewed a little bit bearish because told me to go bearish and that one's underwater. Thanks a lot, Moel. Appreciate that. Um Oh, and then I put on a I did something a little different. I recorded a a Loom video. I put on a a new DCTM, but I just initiated it with a single calendar. And that's 16 and uh 1620 DTEES with the intent of adding to it um adding another calendar to turn it into a double calendar and then punch uh potentially transforming it. So the DCs just aren't producing lately. So, just trying a little something further out, wider range. Definitely obviously holding planning to hold it for multiple days before I do anything. But that's the plan there. Trump's already done. It's digital assets. No, >> he's still talking >> because of the success. >> Where's my bar none? And so one of the things that I'm so thankful that you've done, >> Mr. President, thank you for um yeah, I had I I just got out of my last uh hedged iron condor, Kelvin, so I hadn't had a chance to post it yet. Let me let me post here. Copy all my orders. [music] All right. So, just posted that. Here's the link to the thread if anyone wants to check it out. I'm going to plan to uh I'm going to plan to do a little class um to share share a lot more detail about about that and kind of how I think about it. Um, probably here in September sometime S&P just kind of staying above that previous day high. Let's see what else is going on today. We had a uh we had a little little bit of a kind of a volatile little period here right at uh right when the FOMC minutes came out. That was right here. Had an initial push up of about I guess it was only 10 points and then it immediately dropped 15 and then hasn't really done much since. It's kind of inside that same range where it had that little pump and dump. VIX continuing to fall through lows of day. Let's see. Today is the 19th. So, yeah, we had Target before the market opened and then we have Weeble after the market. It's only an $8 stock, so nothing I'm going to do on that. Plus, it's only had three earnings announcements in its short little life. And then tomorrow before the open, we do have um Walmart and Alibaba. Can look at those. Walmart has exceeded the expected move about 47% of the time. So, pretty much a coin flip. Yeah, unfortunately not, Django. I I don't like that. Um because like on my Discord, it's always visible right under the transformer chat has like a little drop down out of the transformer chat. But I don't know why they hide it. I don't there's no setting that can make it visible. You just if you hover over the transformer chat, you'll see the threads or if you click the thread in the transformer chat at the top, it'll always be there. But yeah, it's just not I don't know. I even tried to use the at everyone or at here to tag everybody, but still a lot of people aren't seeing it. So, I won't be using threads going forward. And once once uh once I do the class, you know, I'll just I'll I'll start posting outside of that thread. But yeah, unfortunately, that's just a Discord issue. So with Walmart kind of being a coin flip of staying inside or outside the expected move, I'm not going to do anything neutral. If I did anything in Walmart, it would be directional. Moel, any opinion on Walmart? Walmart hit an all-time high of 135 back in May. It's currently at 114. Let's see. Did Walmart get a uh Well, Walmart Walmart opened up unchanged after the target earnings and pushed up above previous day high, but it's back below previous day low now. So, it doesn't look like it's really tracking with Tar. Dan 89 says Walmart's going up. I don't know if I should trust Dan 89. Never. I've never heard I don't know that I've ever heard from you, Dan 89. You got to give me You got to give me some more more details. Why Why is Walmart going up? Are you a Walmart insider? Do you live in Bentonville, Arkansas? Chris says Walmart's going down. Dan 89 doesn't want to talk about his Walmart prediction. He's a man of few words. Dan, if you live in Bentonville, Arkansas, I'm I'm doing what you say. While I'm waiting, let's see what Alibaba's up to. Exceeded it's exceeded the expected move over the last five years. Uh 40% of the time, 60% staying inside. All right. Dan's from California, not Arkansas. Dan says, "I think sales are better." So now you're saying Walmart's going down. S&P is getting a little bouncy. Uh Alibaba stays inside the expected move uh or exceeds it 40% of the time. Also not much better than a coin flip. Alibaba has some nice post earnings drift if it exceeds the expected move move either up or down. target gapped up but it was inside the expected move. So let's see on the post earnings. Yeah, I would really need to close exceeding the expected move to have much of a pattern there. Oh, the sales are better. Walmart sales are better. Okay, so you're still bullish. Got it. All right, Dan, I'm going to take a chance on you being that it's your first time coming out with something. See what we got here. All right. So, Walmart's got an expected move a little over five. Maybe too cheap to do a Let's see. do a bullish butterfly. Oh, we got dollar wide strikes. That should work. Peak of the butterfly right around the upper expected move. No risk to the upside. That's what I'm going with. Let's see what I can get filled at. No fill at 68. No fill at 70. Filled at 71. All right, Dan, I'm in. S&P's little bounce getting pushed back down right back down to previous day high. Let's see on my hedged iron condor. What do I need to make more than the minimum? I need below 95. That's 20 points away. I need over 20 points for that to really pay Joey bag of donuts. Are you in here? Do not see Joey bags. He had a similar. He had a similar hedged iron condor that he posted. I'm not sure what where he's at with it. All right, Dan, you're in, too. All right. I like it. Putting your money where your mouth is, unlike some people in here. Oh yeah, mRNA. That thing went bonkers today. Is that just cool? 165%. Apparently they are curing cancer. Do you end up jumping in any of that, Watson? The thing started bouncing at 5:45 a.m. Central was when it had its first push. Got up to $99. Opened around 116 today. Now it's at 167. Medfly, you got a call. Nice. Yeah, I bet those options just exploded. That is quite a move. Not even at all-time highs after that jump. I don't know if this is all-time highs, but it hit 217 back in December of 2022. It's just as far as I have my chart set to go back. Got the S&P below previous day high now. Down to 7712. Oh, it was near 500 during after CO. That makes sense. Oh boy. Lewis, did you at 80 cuz you you had a covered call on it, man. That thing's still pumping now. It's at 171. Where'd you get in, Watson? on that pullback to near pre-market highs, that kind of area maybe. Yeah. Nice. And then you you sold it two minutes later. Did you paperhand it? [laughter] Oh, medfly still holding. I like it. SPX looking a little heavy here. VIX back over 15. Let's see. We've got about seven minutes till MOC. Oh, I've got to put on my uh I have got to put on my hedge iron condor for tomorrow. So, give me just a minute. All right, it's on. It's on like Donkey Kong. Uh yeah. Yeah. I think I'm going to play a full-on Mahomes today. See what it's trading at. Getting some decent movement today. SPX is at 7710. Probably going to be a little bit cheap with Trump Daddy on the mic. Or is he done? That conference still going on? Yeah, the 10ens are only trading at a buck 20 or so. Um, Abos, I'm targeting just slapping it on by the end of the day. >> That's my criteria. >> For tomorrow's expiration. Yeah. Uh, daily jingo. It's the old slap-on criteria. Abos. Wow. Articulate. It's already been a year. That's awesome. Yeah. And you are welcome. spx down to 06. Six down to 05. This is the move I was looking for earlier. Or I could have locked in more on my hedged iron condor, but just kept chopping around that previous day high. So I went ahead and locked it up. Only 90 ash. That's That's small potatoes usually for you compared to what you usually need. We got MOC in two minutes. Looks like a report came out. Open AAI will be public in 2027 or sooner according to the CFO. I think that was pretty pretty much expected. >> [snorts] >> Yeah, I did hear I just opened one five minutes ago. One minute now until we get the markets on close imbalance. I've got some puts at uh O and 05 quite a few at O. So if we keep dropping those are going to get smoked. 10 seconds. Market on close imbalance. S&P 500 sellside 699 million. NASDAQ 100 sellside 365 million. Dow 30 sellside 71 million. MAG7 sellside 108 million. small sell side. S&P down to 03. The '05 butterfly looks like it's at about a$140 or so. Maybe. I'm going to work in '05 at two bucks. [snorts] Looks like it's trading for a$180ish. Maybe $1.70ish. SPX down to O2. back up to 04. The 05 butterfly looks like it's still around $180, dollar 90. Still have seven minutes to go. Now we're up to 06. Sitting on 05. We can sit here a little bit longer. should get filled. up to 07. Five minutes. Oh, quick little quick little dip at the five minute mark. filled on the 05s $2. Okay. See if the Mome's magic is here today. And we're down to 01. I like it. It's a good start. Four minutes to go. Right at the break even to the downside. Oh, you need 76.90. I thought you meant you needed 90 points. Abos 7690 is a little more a little more doable. S&P almost at lows of day. Hey Nor, did that so did that uh the P&L on flux did that match the settlement on that conglomeo trade you were that you pinned yesterday. Should have I I checked couple of my trades. SPX back up to 05 right in the middle. >> [snorts] >> Two-minute warning. S&P at 07. VIX back below 15. Okay, good deal. more. Yeah, cuz I pushed an update after the close yesterday because the the spot price of S&P was a little bit different than the the yellow line on the graph because of because the the yellow long story short, the yellow line was essentially getting priced off the price the option prices as opposed to the settlement price of S&P, but I got that fixed. Yeah, should be should [snorts] be dead on. All right, SPX at08. [snorts] A little bit more. There's 09. 30 seconds. Uh oh. Uhoh. Back down to 05. We've got 12 seconds. Not what I was looking for. Five and back up to 09. Come on. Oh, little mark of mark 7708. >> Back to the scratches. How many Mome scratches do we have to have this year? 7708.35. Small winner. >> Order cancelled. >> Lot of Mahome scratches. All right, all that's a wrap for the day. We'll be back tomorrow. Uh tomorrow we are streaming live in the morning for day trading, but no power hour live stream. uh as as posted in the live schedule channel. You can see the calendar there, but no power hour live tomorrow. Uh all right, all that's a wrap. Everybody have a good night. Talk to you soon.