Open Comments: S3 Ep.6 - The Architect’s Pivot - From Static Blueprints to Dynamic Ecosystems wit...

Welcome back to open comments with me Ash. In this episode, we'll be talking to Stuart McGregor. Stuart McGregor is the CEO of Real IRM and The Open Group South Africa. Through his personal achievements, he has gained the reputation of an enterprise architecture and IT governance specialist both in South Africa and internationally. [music] While participating in the development of the TOGAF standard, Stuart drove the adoption of TOGAF in South Africa and continues to evangelize of enterprise architecture and the open group standards across Africa through speaking opportunities, advisory engagements, and EA masterclass, >> [music] >> TOGAF, and Zachman framework training. Now based in Plettenberg Bay, all Stuart's engagements are carefully scheduled around the tide tables and walks on the beach with his beagle, Roxy. In this episode, we'll be taking [music] things back to his 1999 proto EA case study, ecosystem architecture, and real-world application and beyond. >> [music] >> Let's dive in, shall we? Thank you, Stuart, for joining us today on open comments. To start with, in your 1999 proto EA case study, what were the earliest warning signs that static tools like ARIS were insufficient for modeling business dynamics? >> Well, thank you, Ash. It resulted in as you said 1999 was a McKinsey proposal to South African beer division. I was at South African beer division division as the information resource manager at the time. It was really a a request for architecture work to then look at the McKinsey proposal and you know, how it would work in the beer division context. But turn around or inside South African beer division at the time, we had a number of of modeling tools, you know, you know, ARIS as well as some some financial simulation tools. Um why McKinsey suggested Vinson Brels to address complex systems dynamics, you know, where the focus was on changing the path of behavior, what would that mean to volumes? And the existing tool set simply couldn't you know, handle you know, that type of problem. Complexity and you know, the need for simulations and Monte Carlo simulations in across the really complex environment. So, um you know, unfortunately, the you know, the proposal uh um was not accepted, which was quite a bit of frustration. In essence, you know, there were quite a few exceeded that analytic tools, you know, unlimited size, game theory simulations, etc. Um and you know, through that uh you know, kind of moved on you know, into [clears throat] the SAB PLC global IT strategy project, which is my my next focus. >> Thank you. Um what mindset shift is hardest for experienced enterprise architects when moving from control-based design to adaptive ecosystem thinking? >> That's a that's a rather complex question. You know, it's it's it's really to to start thinking you know, what does our architecture look like? And start asking the question really, what does our architecture do? You know, what are the feedback loops that drive its behavior? Yeah, in other words, it's really it's a it's a a significant shift. Yeah, it means you're drawing new types of models, you know, like causal loop diagrams, not to simply you know, you automate users which we typically do. You know, it also entails identifying reinforcing and balancing loops in the in your business environment. And and you know, the the dark dynamics are you know, amplified so so it's I'm seeing a difference between stocks and flows and and how simulation is done, etc. Um which it's you know, currently not done commonly yeah, across enterprise architecture teams because it's more of a a part of the architecture for strategy development, I suppose. Yeah, I think it's a good point. It's really to pick it. Yeah, a problem that your organization is facing. Yeah, yeah, ideally the way you know, things like this interventions haven't haven't really worked. >> And moving on to ecosystem architecture and real-world application, in the South African scrap metal ecosystem case, what surprised you most when modeling it as an ecosystem rather than as an industry value chain? >> I kind of fell down a rabbit hole. It was a rabbit hole. It was really reading a a paper that you know, it suggested certain intervention in the in the scrap metal industry and I read through the through the documents. It kind of was really linear thinking. And you know, because of that, I I kind of fell down the rabbit hole as it were and started exploring the systems dynamics. Yeah, with our M, yeah, yeah, together with the members of the Open Group, we put together the first industry reference model which is in the Open Group focusing specifically on exploration of iron metals and minerals. And in that particular piece of work which has been widely used, thousands of dollars worth of the Open Group site. The you know, the process views were the capability map was produced for environment we don't tackle the complexities and the dynamics of a complex system. It was pretty opposed view on a capability view. Typical targets type of deliverables for an industry reference model. So, you know, what was missing and what isn't missing is the ability to bring in systems thinking you know, into ecosystems ecosystems. So, so the tooling has has changed. You know, the ability to you know, use AI, things you know, crude code and and so on and so forth. Certainly has changed the way architects can can add value into the into the organization specifically most complex ecosystem. >> Thank you. And how did reframing silos as ecosystem nodes change stakeholder conversations? >> Um really you know, dramatically. You know, when you show regulators in Southern China instead of you know, the receiving revenues from Samsung or China Eastern which is you know, all the different you know, government departments etc. You know, and you know, and you know, the organizations is known as because you know, it really shifts. You know, they stop being the center of their own universe and start seeing how their decisions ripple through actors that they've never sat in the room with. They understand the IT decision makes export permit decisions you know, without visibility of the of the peace force of the SAPS registration data. And you know, another government corporate person is export duties without real time or links into other information. So it's in other words, everybody seems to view you know, the world from their perspective while from an ecosystem's perspective when you break that silo mentality you know, where we have your client and according agencies you optimize their own nodes you know, while the system decays. So everyone is trying to do what's right. >> Mhm. >> You know, with with the best intention but the net effect is is that the you know, system kind of it floats. You know, so in other words, it's it and and also it's looking at the first entire ecosystem you know, a node you know, such as the you know, the waste pickers. The the they you know, it's a different way of kind of thinking you know, that they really are you know, key logistic providers into the into the recycling um you know sector. >> Thanks. >> So so your your conversation can change about but but waste pickers themselves, you know. So you when you start thinking of the waste pickers as the key aspect you know one of the primary modes of of collection into a subsystem, it changes your of your thinking into the actual model itself. There's almost getting back into your target Yeah, the understanding of your stakeholders are and you know but it's a it's a it's a wider spectrum of of of stakeholders, you know, of course government departments and the entire you know spectrum. >> Mhm. Moving on to probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo in EA. How do you ensure that probabilistic outputs are trusted rather than dismissed as too theoretical? >> I think I I think it's going to become a a core EA EA com- competence. And also like you know kind of looking into you know the people need to not see it as as being too theoretical. So you know the you know the way to tackle this is to gather the evidence that that your stakeholders already know to be true. And that's one of the points coming out of scrap metal that you know the open was was equated you know it opened up with the information that was already in the public domain and that was coming from you know a lot of research that went into putting sources from government departments into people that are working on around from from the you know sector specifically. And then that you know you know that it's pretty obvious because of the fact that cables have been stolen and the infrastructure has has gone gone backwards. But you know so all of those there is a clear understanding from a from a mental model perspective because people actually see where it's going wrong. And then, you know, to show show the you know, the correlation between export bans and theft production, and that came out of this research as well. And you know, what actually drove the you know, change in understanding. So, it's you know, the sequence of the trust, you know, the the aligning of the public facts, you know, show what what why the kind of model is is failing. And and then map the feedback loop and then introduce simulation itself. And then coupling that with you know, hard numbers, you know, dollar proof. You know, showing that you know, you know, the linkage between export bans at and the correlation to to theft production. And in the in the latter presentation, you know, one of the slides is that is a discussion between a the yeah, two personas, two AI personas that that I've created. Yeah, systems dynamics specialist and enterprise architecture team with systems dynamic specialist sending a note to the EA team kind of highlighting you know, as to you know, why you know, the conventional thought was was not working. Yeah, the way to tackle the problem. You know, they're showing for example, a very low correlation, you know, between theft production and export bans, you know, while uh in in in increasing security and physical security, you know, you know, it comes to fit you know, dramatically. Um And and then the also I think one one of the key aspects coming out of out of the ecosystem work is the is the by product score which we already should talk about as well. Um you know, where you know, the a system is is quite clearly you you on the on a the scrap metal system is is clearly on a on a on a decline. And so, um yeah, hard hard to you know, dismiss things that have been too theoretical is to ground it in in in in real facts, you know, real stuff that people can see, touch, and feel, and experience. What it brings adds to to the picture is is the the the causal loops and the the interdependencies between the factors that actually drive the change in system because you're merely thinking that you're you're influencing or requiring an export ban is going to fix the system was totally flawed. It had exactly the the opposite effect that was was required. >> Mhm. And do you see probabilistic modeling becoming a core EA competency in the next decade? >> Uh I think I think I think so. I think it I definitely will. Uh um You you know, it's it's it's it's the ability to support boards who make you know, the right decisions. Um and you know, there's there's a lot of research that's been done on around what makes a high-performance board, you McKinsey and BCG released a number of papers over the years addressing that specifically. And by adopting this type of approach, you know, I think there's there's a clear way forward in in that um you know, we can then answer questions which which weren't easily answered answered before. And you know, supporting the board to reduce decision biases, you know, as an as an example. You know, we're coming out of Monte Carlo simulations. You know, you can say, you know, probabilistically, you know, there's a 30% you know, probability that this is going to work, yeah. So, let me go. It's kind of it it repositions the enterprise architecture capability to provide information through systems thinking, systems knowledge, business knowledge, so we can directly reduce decision biases and you can also start supporting the the evaluation of resource allocation. Okay. You're assessing value drivers and so on and so forth. You know, that really positions the enterprise architecture practice to provide services which can drive positive change within the organization. So, definitely in theory, I I see it becoming more and more important. I I think I think also what what I really want to say to you is is that you know, the enterprise architecture team or practice are uniquely positioned to work through their modeling. They are converting personal tacit knowledge into organizational knowledge and the ability those who know and those those who need to know together. So, you know, they're almost positioned as as custodians of the intellectual capital of the organization. And then through applying engineering disciplines, you know, the metamodel definitions and and the way that things work, databases are used, etc. It uniquely positions the enterprise architecture team as a as a way of of of guiding effective change in the in the in the organization. So, that's you know, it's it's a change of focus. It's it's the the management of intellectual capital as a as a as a resource. >> Mhm. >> When it comes to the future of enterprise architecture, have you been Yeah. Yeah, I think it's we definitely require you know, that pivot. You know, moving from from static blueprints to dynamic ecosystems that that really adapt and evolve. >> Yeah. >> Whereas is core of that is the ability to manage intellectual capital as a resource and by doing that being able to you know, guide that effective changes in the organization in in a far more agile living and dynamic session. And that's a direct change from from coming forward with three to five year you know, strategic road map road maps and all that. That's a great to have but is it living dynamic? Probably not. You know, where you can cast let's say well from a probabilistic perspective you know, there's a 20% or 22% or 25% uh probabilities you know, that this is going to happen and you know, and here are uh uh various alternative scenarios you know, >> [clears throat] >> be able to simulate them do comparisons etc. And that provides the enterprise architecture team with the ability to support alternative policy discussions. You know, where should we evaluate resource allocation in the organization? Where is it making the most sense from a business value perspective? How do we tackle decision biases because everybody has their own mental model. And I think through this approach we're you know, we we're kind of breaking it down you know, we can get people on the the same page literally by reducing deliverables printed out on A0 posters where people can take a red pen to but then couple coupling that with the work coming out of the system simulation you know, being able to do system dynamics and business dynamics simulations and you know, that far exceeds current levels of capability. >> Looking back at your 1999 proto EA work, what would you tell your younger self? >> It's it's don't give up. Pretty much one of the one of the key answers. >> Okay, I like that. >> Yeah, so to the younger you so much. It's the >> Don't doubt yourself. >> Yeah, it's it's also it's around to be when I teach a toga toga course that right at the beginning I say here, I I must warn you that that this particular course comes with a health warning. >> Ah, interesting. >> Once you once you've internalized all enterprise architecture is about then you're looking at organizations. You know, it's going to be very very difficult to get another surprise out of me. >> Is it a type of thing as well that you you know when they saying when they're like you live and breathe something? Would you say it's a bit similar to that as well? >> I I absolutely. You know, in my case I'm people tease me and I say what? I'm actually obsessed about enterprise architecture. Actually though >> That's good then. Yeah. >> It helps the business and then it's something that I feel can really make you such an incredible difference in life. I think it's all of them one of the value propositions coming out of the strategic ecosystem work which is you know, something which is quite new because of the fact that it combines TOGAF, systems thinking, systems dynamics, business dynamics, uses TOGAF as a as a structuring frame frame. So it's so everything builds on work that spans 35 years in looking at the Zachman framework and work on it as part of the SAP knowledge coordination council and you know, presentations on using the Zachman framework to implement ERP systems and the work that we did on exploration mining metals and minerals and work that was done on the COBIT standard which kind of aligned COBIT from an IT governance perspective with enterprise architecture through you know, the work that was done in the in COBIT version 5 and how that's been adapted by by government in in Africa where it's it's mandated by law, you know, using a uh TOGAF 5 and TOGAF as as as part of part of government requirement. You know, that's certainly driven the understanding as to what enterprise architectures and the value it can can bring. >> Okay. >> Um I think we're moving into a phase now like a couple with AI and you know, this ecosystems, you know, thinking with value proposition, the ability to add value quickly into organizations is becoming more obvious. Um >> And at such a rapid pace as well, right? >> It's It is such a rapid pace, but again, you know, organizations need to to to not to toss the baby with the bathwater in some instances. You know, where you know, the engineering disciplines, you know, the focus on meta models and you know, the way and you know, you can you know, systems thinking and >> Yes. >> systems analysis, business dynamics tool, requires that that intellectual rigor through the you know, the meta models and you know, that type of stuff. You know, the you know, consistent modeling approaches and the use of standards and so on and so forth, but quite frankly, you know, that's the type of stuff that you can put behind the brick wall. And you know, you know, your typical stakeholders in fact don't really care. They're all they want is is is is you know, meaningful uh um information that helps them you know, make the right decisions and drive effective change into into their their organizations. >> Mhm. >> Uh um you know, one of you know, the key messages which I'd kind of like to make obvious to to um enterprise architecture practitioners is is you know, this is really it's it's a a field that that you can grow and it's a continual learning. And I think that's one of the key values coming out of the open group itself is the the ability to participate and to guide the standard and to work with people who are are very knowledgeable and in any past architect and and a whole number of fields. You know, some disciplines have kind of kind of kind of lead into it. >> Mhm. >> You know, like for example, you have to find the thing back. Getting to to the question that you asked around there, what what would I tell my my younger self? Yeah, I I wish you know, that I had actually read what coming into the middle middle of this, you know, that that that leverage hierarchy, you know, as to when it comes to system, you know, what are your high leverage points and what what are are the highest leverage points and what are the highest leverage you know, you know, since you know, all factors and typically organizations tend to focus on the on the on the low leverage ones, you know, and this was really obvious coming out of the scrap metal ecosystem as well. You know, where you know, the stuff or the action that's required in in order to drive positive and sustained organizational transformation or organization societal change here is a more interesting thing than looking within the within organization itself. They're requiring a new way of thinking. Yes, almost at a at a at a different level. And it it picking it from other other disciplines, you know, what's coming out of the economist level systems thinking, people like Jay Forrester. So, I you know, I I find it looking back I I certainly do not regret the path. I I've certainly made so many mistakes over the years and it's it's kind of I think it's it's a one of the key ways of learning is is is to pick yourself up and continue and you know, some things you need to unlearn. >> Yes. >> And you know, and on I I really passionate about the other focus on on systems dynamics and systems dynamics and and business dynamics because of the fact that it explains the complexity. You know, it's it's we have that that shift from linear thinking. Coupling with it with AI, you know, the ability to to to make it you know, follow or adapt it because of the fact that you can feed it those various information sources and construct it in such a way that you can you know, almost identify the gaps in in the in the system and in other words, you know, what is not known you know, using new forms of tooling etc. >> Mhm. >> So, it's really it's it's been a very very exciting pulse. I certainly don't don't don't really still I'm I'm very encouraged you that you know, we're you know, using TOGAF as as as the absolute you know, core foundation and then also coming back to you know, the work that Donald Zackman has done done over the years and you know, being able to do things using AI that weren't that easy before. You know, for example, you know, where it's um it's in Zackman speak, you know, that you know, detail is a is a function of depth within cell not a not a change of perspective. You know, those things have been easy to say, very difficult for for people to internalize still. Sometimes more difficult to to implement. But as you know, with the the rapid developments which we're beginning to see at the moment, I can see a a clear way forward to pull a lot of these concepts together and make it really practical. So, the world has certainly changed and it's a very exciting time for for enterprise architects and as we open with itself, so the other value proposition for membership and participation is really clear. And so, I you know, specifically, you know, into Africa, I'm looking forward to having, you know, more and more organizations join and and collaborate on the part of the the inter positive ecosystem thinking. It needs to be the way we drive, you know, transformation. What's organizations will be across the continent. >> Mhm. >> Well, I think I think you know, that organizations that that that embrace ecosystem thinking, you know, will be running their their strategies as a simulation where it's adopted. >> Mhm. Okay. >> Yeah. Yeah, they they are future positive. You know, it will be you know, more alive you know, to be fed by AI agents. >> Yes. >> Continuity updating as the environment changes. >> Adapting, yes. >> Mhm. >> Yeah, so it's adaptive. Um, it's dynamic. It's a living. >> Mhm. And ever growing as well, like it's because it's always changing and it's always adapting, it's very moldable in that sense that it's not uh restricted, it's not confined, it's ever moving with, you know, as it changes, we change with it type of thing as well. >> And it's, you know, managing to managing intellectual capital as a key resource within within the organization. Yeah, but it So, in other words, you know, the way intellectual capital is structured into into repositories, >> Mhm. >> uh it's made accessible. >> Yes. >> Uh you run simulations against it, you know, alternative >> Yes. >> Yeah. policies. [music] And and then, you're being able to look across across discipline, you know, into the into finance world, you're being able to, for example, getting back to the SAB work, you know, you're doing your sensitivity analysis and doing things like uh economic value add calculations and you know, updating on the bottom line what what was done. You know, really make it uh you know, value adding. Well, you know, and also, you know, not only into into into strategic planning and >> [music] >> yeah financial but but also into risk management and also the probability analysis of scenario analysis and making organizations far more resilient and adaptive in the world that's changing so quickly. >> Perfect. Well, thank you Stuart for joining us on the Open Comments podcast and giving us a fascinating glimpse back in time to your 1999 proto EA case study ecosystem architecture and real-world application. >> Thank you very much. >> Thank you Stuart. And to our listeners Open Comments community, we hope you enjoyed this inspiring episode as much as we have. Until next time, stay safe and happy listening.