Video summary
Nvidia's stock recently experienced a decline of approximately four percent, dropping from near its recent high of 228 down to around 218, as the broader market faced significant volatility across the NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow. This downturn has caused Nvidia to fall back below the 220 mark, marking a temporary pullback in gains prior to its upcoming earnings report scheduled for next week. The speaker notes that while it is common for stocks to sell off before earnings based on historical patterns, a substantial drop could actually create a favorable setup for a potential price surge once the results are released. Currently, the stock is hovering near key support levels around 217 and 218, and if these levels hold, the downside risk appears limited, with the speaker not foreseeing a breach of the 200 level in the immediate future despite the recent market turbulence.
The core argument presented is that Nvidia remains fundamentally strong and is far from being overpriced, especially given the robust guidance and capital expenditure increases seen from hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google. Unlike previous scenarios where weak guidance might signal a slowdown in the AI sector, current data suggests the opposite, with companies in the AI ecosystem continuing to dominate and drive demand. The speaker emphasizes that the market is still in the early-to-middle innings of the AI trade, citing recent news such as SpaceX's decision to use solely Nvidia chips as positive indicators. Consequently, while short-term price action may be choppy, the long-term trajectory remains bullish, with a prediction that the stock could reach the high 200s within the next twelve months as it consolidates above its previous resistance levels.
Beyond Nvidia, the transcript briefly touches on other major AI-related stocks including AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC, which have also seen pullbacks but are viewed as potential buying opportunities if they find support at specific price points. For instance, AMD is considered to be in a range where it might bounce back above 500 after failing to break through earlier, while Broadcom requires a reversal above 400 and TSMC needs support near 370 to 390 before further investment is recommended. The speaker advises investors to focus on fundamentals rather than short-term noise, maintaining positions in companies with strong growth prospects even if they experience temporary cooling off after rapid rallies.
In conclusion, the speaker maintains a long-term bullish stance on Nvidia and refuses to sell into earnings, noting that the position already includes significant gains which provide a comfortable buffer against volatility. The analysis suggests that any further dip before the earnings print could be a healthy correction that sets the stage for a stronger performance once the report is issued, provided that the underlying demand from hyperscalers continues to grow. Ultimately, the video serves as a reminder to stay invested in high-quality AI leaders while ignoring market chatter, with the expectation that Nvidia will eventually resume its upward trend toward the mid-to-high 200s over the course of 2027.
Read the full video transcript
So, Nvidia stocks starting to slip as
the entire NASDAQ got nailed today,
guys. The small caps as well, the S&P,
the Dow, you name it. The volatility
index went up. Now, Nvidia's back under
220, and we have to break down the
charts, guys, as it is one of my biggest
stock holdings. And we have earnings
coming up in a week from tomorrow. So,
hit the like button, make sure to
subscribe, follow along for more, take a
sip of whatever you guys are drinking. I
got myself a orange cream ghost energy.
I don't even know why I'm drinking this
guys, but here we are. Cheers. I
appreciate you all uh for tuning in.
Let's dive into it. So, Nvidia went down
2 and a half% today as the entire
market, like I said, went down. And I'm
sure you guys saw my previous video
where we broke that down. The Q's went
down 1.7%.
Russell 1.3% down. S&P down about 3/4 of
a percent and the Dow went down not
much, only about a/4%. Now, Nvidia's
down from I think 227 a couple days ago
or maybe that was yesterday. Uh, was it
yesterday? Yeah, literally we hit two
almost 28 yesterday and we got all the
way down to 218 today. We lost about 4%.
So, there's no doubt heading into
earnings, we're already starting to give
back some gains, which you guys probably
remember I mentioned in a recent video.
I think Nvidia will sell off after
earnings like we've seen happen before
um throughout the last couple of
reports. But then again, if it sells off
big time into earnings, uh you know,
that might change my prediction a little
bit. And now, like I said, we're down
about 4% from yesterday. If this comes
down another um you know couple bucks if
it somehow gets down at 210 212 this
actually might be setting up for a pop
after earnings. Um it all kind of
depends on the sentiment in the market
come Tuesday Wednesday next week and of
course the chart setup here on Nvidia.
But as of now, looks like we might get
some more downside. Um, and the stock
before upside, especially if we take out
this support on the 10day 30 minute. Let
me show you guys this. We're right by
the lows now from last week and the week
before that, I believe. Yeah. Was that
the week before? Either way, 217 and 218
is a big support, guys, which if that
breaks in the short term, uh, you know,
we could be going down, I think, to 210,
208, 212, um, that ballpark. And I don't
see it going back under 200 right now.
Maybe it does after earnings, especially
if the Q's continue to slip, but I just
don't see it as of now. I mean, listen,
we all know they're going to crush
earnings. Is it fully priced into the
stock? I don't know. You know, the the
guidance is a bit unknown. If they
completely blow it out of the water, I
don't think that's fully priced in here.
Um so, if we do get more downside before
the print, it honestly could be setting
us up nicely. If we get a grand slam um
earnings report primarily from guidance
from Nvidia, uh that that'd be amazing.
And look, we know they're going to crush
it. We've seen Micron's earnings, their
guidance. We've seen AMD's earnings,
their guidance, SanDisk, you know, all
these companies in the AI ecosystem,
whether they're making memory, GPUs, the
picks and shovels, whatever it may be,
all these companies are still
dominating, right? Their guidance for
the most part is strong, which tells us
what the AI trade is still looking
strong. It's still going. We're not at
the end of the AI trade. We're not even
in the middle innings yet in my opinion.
We're still in the early middle innings
um of this AI trade. And now if they
were cutting guidance, if guidance came
in super soft for Nvidia or Micron or
SanDisk or an AMD, that would be that
would be a big alarm bell going off in
my head. That'd be 50 red flags going up
like this that oh, maybe things are
slowing down. Maybe capex is slowing
down, you know, maybe um the hypers
scalers aren't spending as much. And
once we see them slowly cut back on
capex, maybe, you know, severely
decrease it, right? That's going to be a
sign as well that, oh, maybe maybe the
AI trade is going to slow down a little
bit, demand's going to slow down, but
we're not getting that. we're getting
the opposite where we're seeing these
hyperscalers increase their capex and
you know it's it's only going to bring
more demand for um you know for Nvidia.
We got the SpaceX news that they're
going to be using um you know solely
Nvidia chips, right? I mean we're we're
getting all this good news and the stock
really hasn't done much um since May at
this point and I still think we're going
to the mid high 200s in due time. Um, I
don't know when, but it's a long-term
investment for me, guys. So, I'm
confident it gets there in due time. Uh,
you know, if I had to put a prediction
on it, I think within the next 12
months, there's a good chance we're in
the higher end of the 200s. Right. Right
now, we're in the lower uh the lower
half of the 200s. We have been for the
last couple of months. I think that
changes um, you know, over the course of
uh, 2027. And this is a bullish chart,
guys, on Nvidia. I mean, the reality is
we were chopping around earlier this
year, end of 2025 between 170 to about
190 195. You guys remember that? We
chopped around for months and then we
broke out to 240 back in the middle of
May. And since that point, we've been
chopping around for months again, but
above the old resistance, which we
struggled to break out of for months. So
essentially guys, we chopped around for
months earlier in 26, then we completely
broke out. Nvidia had an $80 run uh from
bottom to top 40 50%.
And now we're just chopping around
again, but at a higher level. This is
actually healthy price action for a
company that is worth, you know, north
of $5 trillion. And I have this itch on
my back here, guys. Holy smokes. I can't
even reach it. It's one of those that
you can't reach. I have this pen here
that I'm trying to scratch my back with.
Yeah, that's not going to work. We're
going to have to power through, guys. No
scratching the back right now. Uh but
the point is, man, the bulls are in
charge. The chart looks pretty good. You
know what I mean? And even if it pulled
down to 200, 210, it would still look
good and it would still be in that
chopping uh you know, range, if you
will, um above that old resistance. So,
I think Nvidia chartwise looks good.
Maybe it pulls back a little bit more
before earnings, but that would set it
up nicely into the print as opposed to
it running into earnings. Uh which I
would think would set us up for a
sell-off after the print like we've seen
uh before. So that's a quick breakdown
on Nvidia, guys. I'm long. I'm not
selling a share um into earnings. And if
it explodes, awesome. If it dumps, all
right, I'm still going to hold on like I
have been. and I'm still up a good chunk
of my position. It's not like I'm right
at break even and I need it to go up.
Um, I'm up a good chunk. So, I have a
lot of gains baked in. I'm fine. What
about you? Let me know in the comments.
I'm curious where you're at today, guys.
Let me run through some other uh big AI
names quickly before we wrap up. And by
the way, guys, hit the like button. Make
sure to subscribe here on YouTube, on
Facebook, on uh Tik Tok. Hit that follow
button depending on what platform uh
you're watching on. I appreciate you all
for tuning in as always. Cheers. You
guys are awesome. Without you, this
wouldn't be possible. So, AMD had a 4%
red day. Uh, pretty rough day for AMD.
It's been chopping for months. I mean,
the stock hasn't done anything really um
since early May. Same as Nvidia. You
know, it's been chopping around. We're
now under the moving averages. Not
looking so pretty on the charts here. We
tried breaking through 500. We failed.
Um, now we're back at 480, but keep your
eyes on it, man. I don't think AMD
honestly comes much lower than 450. So,
I think this could be a nice pullback
for a bounce back over 500. I think it's
I think it's totally possible. Stocks
like Broadcom today had a 3% pullback.
uh which I wouldn't rush into Broadcom
guys quite frankly until we see some
support at about 370 380 390 and
honestly a reversal back over 400 would
be ideal. Um so I'm watching that on
Broadcom. TSM today had a 4% pullback.
So all these stocks man are pulling back
a bit. Uh they're cooling off after the
crazy runs off the lows. I mean, TSM hit
370 and it went all the way to 430 in
the span of what, two weeks? So, we saw
a crazy run. And this itch on my back is
is driving me crazy, guys. I'm about to
get up and just uh itch it on the door
frame here. I'm about to end the video
and just itch my back. So, um yeah, I
mean that that's pretty much it, man. A
lot of these stocks, they're they're
still fine. follow the fundamentals,
focus on the fundamentals, block out the
noise, and if you believe in a company,
the growth, the fundamentals, the
guidance, um, you should be fine. And
that's where I'm at with Nvidia. Uh, so
what do you guys think? Again, let me
know in the comments and join my
Patreon. If you want to keep up with my
portfolio updates, trades, investments,
if you want to be a part of my private
Discord, it's all linked down below,
pinned in the comments, or go to
stocksurfest.com/patreon.
I'll see you guys in there. And with
that being said, cheers.