Access A Trader - PS60 Process | Day Trading Info.

$NVDA Earnings And This Choppity, Chop, Chop Market!

Duration: 11:54 2153 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

The recent trading sessions have been characterized by extreme volatility and a lack of clear direction, often described as "choppy" due to tight price ranges that prevent significant market movement during regular hours. This stagnation is largely attributed to reduced participation from institutional investors who are on vacation following Labor Day, leading to a disconnect between market data and visual price action. While major earnings reports like Nvidia's have delivered exceptional fundamental results with every metric smashed, the market reaction has been muted, causing the stock to initially dip before rebounding slightly. The broader market sentiment remains non-committal, with stocks dying when they are strong and rallying when weak, suggesting that a true expansion cycle is needed for sustained profitability rather than isolated winning trades. Key technical levels are currently serving as critical decision points for traders navigating this uncertain environment. For Nvidia, the immediate focus is on reclaiming the 21360 level to reignite aggressive buying interest, while the broader market hinges on whether the QQQ ETF can stay above its 50-day moving average at 713 and ideally break back above yesterday's channel high of 714. A failure to hold these levels could signal a bearish trend, whereas a successful breakout might spark a rally across all sectors. Similarly, other major names like Microsoft are approaching their own key moving averages, with the potential to reclaim the 500 level and target higher prices, indicating that the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of its current consolidation phase. Several specific stocks present unique setups based on option flow and technical patterns as the market awaits the return of full liquidity. SpaceX is showing signs of life with deep repeat option flow in out-of-the-money calls, positioning it just an inch away from reclaiming its 50-day moving average and potentially targeting last week's highs near 150. Tesla offers a two-sided opportunity where history suggests multiple bounces off the 10-day moving average, but traders are advised to wait for confirmation above today's channel before going long or short below the 10-day if that support finally fails. Additionally, Palantir is attracting attention with new weekly option flow and needs only to surpass last Friday's highs to wake up, while Apple appears to be shaking off weakness after taking out a three-day range, requiring just a move above its linear regression line to resume upward momentum. Ultimately, the current market interval requires patience and a methodical approach rather than throwing strategies against the wall in hopes of finding success. The speaker emphasizes that this period of indecision is temporary and will eventually resolve into either a significant expansion or a sharp decline once full market participation returns. Traders are advised to avoid placing large sizes on trades until the lack of enthusiasm subsides and clear directional bias emerges, likely after the Labor Day break when institutions return. By waiting for the expansion cycle to end and focusing on high-probability setups like those in the tech sector, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the next major move without risking capital during this unique and frustrating interim period.

Read the full video transcript

Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. >> Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the axisoftrade.com nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Take a second out. Click that like button, support the channel. Hopefully, I will do my best to point you in the right direction. So, if if you've been an active participant in the market in the last 2 days, and you find it much more pleasing of putting knives in your testicles, you're probably not alone, right? The last 2 days of the tape have been the most choppiest two sessions I can remember in a very long time. I can't get ish going the last 2 days. The ranges are tight. The biggest moves are happening either pre-market or right at the open, which you can't even get anything going. We talked about in the last several days that people are just on vacation, right? They're on vacation. They're coming back after Labor Day. So, if you find you know, if you find there's just no correlation of what's happening to what your eyeballs are seeing, trust me, you're not alone. The good news is well, we're literally a few days away from the market participants coming back after Labor Day, and we should start getting expansion cycles. Again, you cannot make money. You can have a winning trade. You cannot make money unless you have an expansion cycle. It doesn't make a difference to the upside or to the downside. Two big notes today. You had the PCE came out this morning slightly above forecast. Year-over-year was also a touch hotter than expectation. I'm literally reading this. If you think I know this stuff off the top of my head, you're out of your mind. Core PCE matched common expectations, and inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve 2% target. My next lifetime I will break down every single thing that I said. I have no idea what the hell that means, but the most important part is who cares, okay? Pushing that along, okay? What you're seeing in front of you is a really, really good earnings report coming out of Nvidia. As you see, every single metric was absolutely smashed. Everything is smashed. Uh but we also know on earnings it doesn't make a difference of what the market uh believes is good or bad is how the market, well, acts after that news. Uh the first inclination of this really great report, uh they sold the stock off at lost the 207 level which was last week's low, which is also the 50-day moving average, and now in the process as more headlines are coming across the screen, you can see Nvidia is rebounding. As of right now, it's about 50 cents away from even right? From even on the day, right? Even on the day or least even from the closing price. I'm going to give you guys the channels for tomorrow, especially in the regular session, okay? 207 is going to be the 50-day moving average in the regular session. That is also last week's lows. So, the the stock needs to stay above the 50-day moving average for the stock to still be deemed well, okay? Uh the stock also needs to get back above, and as we're speaking, it's about to go red green on the day. The stock also needs to get back above 1360. If it could get back above 1360, we saw a lot of really aggressive call buyers come into the name this morning uh to the 15 to the 220 uh short-term expiration, especially for the weeklies. That 21360s, 21370s is going to be important to the upside. So, 21360s, 70s to the upside, 207 to the downside. That is all you need to know. Other than that, Qs uh after the close are trying to get back above the 50-day moving average. That is super duper important because the 713 is the 50-day. Again, above the 50-day bullish, below the 50-day is bearish, and you can see here on the Qs after hours, they're right above the 713 level uh after the close. So, as long as the close can Excuse me, as long as the Qs can stay above 713 and Nvidia could get back above uh its channel from the previous session, I think there's a chance we do rally. That's very, very important. Uh I think if the market fails again at this level, the 713 level, especially in the regular session, that's not going to be good cuz again, we'll be building a base. But as of right now, bulls are doing their job. They are reclaiming back the 713 level. A key metric for tomorrow's session is if we can get back above 714, 714 is the previous day's channel. This could spark up a rally in every single sector. The one stock that is actually doing really well uh tonight is CRM. Great numbers. Uh and unlike Nvidia, right? Unlike Nvidia, it actually went higher on good numbers. Is this going to be a good catalyst for a lot of the stocks Nasdaq 100 names? Sure, why not, right? You got the You got the software names should be uh you know, going as sympathy, right? Microsoft had a really, really good day sitting there above this channel here. Microsoft is very, very close uh to reclaiming back the 500 level, which is the 5-day moving average for a potential move back to 513. So, you have pretty I mean, you have pretty you know, pretty stellar news on Nvidia. It just has to perform after hours. Again, it needs to get back above the 21360s level to really, really get this market going. Qs need to stay above 713, right? Get above 714, which is yesterday's channel. And the most important part is we have to kind of buy our time. In my opinion, again, maybe I'm looking at a market that nobody else is looking, but the last 24 hours has been probably the most non-committal commitment type of action I've seen probably, I would say probably the last 5-7 years. I think that's not even an exaggeration. We are seeing lack of enthusiasm, right? When stock is strong in the morning, it dies. When a stock is about to die in the morning, it starts to rally. So again, if you are chopping your own fingers one by one, well, you're not alone. I'm telling you I've been doing this for nearly 27 years. I can't get ish going the last 2 days, but I know the big picture and that's okay. When you're constantly getting a 2-7 offsuit, like get your hands off the mouse. That's it. It's as easy as that. I know you want to trade. You're dying. You're still in the romantic phase. You're still in the honeymoon phase. Is it Monday yet? Is it Tuesday yet? Guys, get your hands off the mouse. Eventually, we are going to have two things happen. We're going to either reclaim back that 714 previous days range in the Qs and everything is going to explode or Nvidia is going to disappoint, lose 207 and drag everything down with it. Again, it's pretty basic stuff going into tomorrow's session, but there are some really good setups for tomorrow. Let's talk about them. I want to start off with SpaceX. It's usually not a name I would turn around and say, "Yo, this thing looks absolutely good." But guys, two things are happening, right? If you are any type of, you know, follower of the PS60 theory, you know that the setup is very basic. It is a daily setup that needs to reclaim. It is option flow. It is repeat option flow. It is deep repeat option flow out of the money calls with short-term expiration, and that's what we're starting to see on SpaceX now for the last couple days. Folks, this thing is an inch away from reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. Just like the Qs, the importance of the Qs reclaiming, it's very, very important that SpaceX reclaims. All day yesterday, all day today, and this was into weakness, right? This was people betting five, six, seven, eight dollars out of the money with this Friday's expiration. They are coming very aggressively for the 143 and the 145 weeklies. All this damn thing needs to do, right? All it needs to do is get back above the 50-day moving average. If it can get back above the 50-day moving average, folks, look how much room we have. I mean, last week's highs was nearly 150. So, massive, massive setup. The only question is, is it going to follow through? Speaking of its counterpart of Tesla, right? We're still seeing aggressive call buying as well. The problem is, if you guys remember, last week it, you know, got rejected off the 50-day moving average, and now we are back to the 10-day. You see how many times it has held the 10-day? It held it once. It held it twice. It held it three times. It held it four times. It held it five times. It held it six times, and it held it again today, okay? So, we have a two-sided setup going into tomorrow's session on Tesla. You can't just assume it's going to bounce again off the 10-day moving average like it did on the previous previous five times. However, right? However, history is showing us that is showing us that it's did it done so or did so already. So, I want to watch it either above today's channel to go long, but if it finally loses the 10-day moving average six times a try, right? If six time is uh uh is is uh What was it What was it What is this What is this called? Six times the try? No, I forgot what it's called. I forgot what this I forgot what the um what the expression is, but uh I'd like to get long above the 5-day and I'd like to get short below the 10-day. Again, it's giving us a pretty good tight setup for what we believe is happening. Uh let me give you guys some other ideas. With SpaceX, you you got to watch SpaceX for tomorrow. Again, you got the option flow, uh you got short-term expiration, and then you have a very, very tight uh setup. PLTR, we're starting to see again uh 8250 weeklies come in. Uh last couple of days, we started seeing September 190s. Um I think it just needs to get back above last Friday's highs. If it does get back above last Friday's highs, this thing could actually wake up. Uh Apple is starting to, you know, starting to shake off, you know, starting to shake off weakness. You can see here, it took out a 3-day range, stopped at the linear regression line. All it needs to do is get back above the linear regression line, and this thing can wake up as well. So, we're kind of set up. You don't want to you do not want to put yourself in a position that you're watching 200 stocks. This is not the market uh at least in the last 24 hours. This is not the market to go, you know, throw, you know, throw things against the wall and hope something sticks. It's a very, very methodical market. Moves are coming out of nowhere. It feels like there's not enough fear, despite the Qs the last several days have been below the 50-day. It doesn't feel like there's enough fear to take down the market in the regular session, and it definitely doesn't feel like there's enough juice to make it go higher. It's a very unique interval. You're going to be faced with this type of the interval numerous times the longer you trade, uh but again, it's going to end. The key is figure out what it is, right? Like I figured out 2 days ago what this is, and I'm not going to start, you know, throwing any type of size on these trades. The point is, you have to wait till the expansion cycle ends. If we can get back above, especially 714 on the Qs, which is the previous day's highs, I think there is a shot that everything does expand. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless. Just chill out, right? Chill out, relax, breathe. I know, I know the kids the 14-year-olds on Tik Tok they're crushing every day. I know, I know, I know. I wish I was them. Guys, God bless. Hope everybody's doing well. And with God's help I'll see you guys on the field tomorrow.