Nigeria 2027: Can Nigerians Trust the 2027 Election? | Into Africa

What does it take for citizens to believe that democracy can deliver? Nigeria's 2027 elections will be among the most consequential political events on the African continent. But this conversation is about more than who wins or loses. It's about trust. Trust in institutions, trust in leaders, and trust that citizens' voices and votes matter. As Africa's most populous country, Nigeria's democratic journey is closely watched across the continent. As preparations for 2027 begin, important questions are emerging. What lessons have been learned from recent elections? How strong are Nigeria's democratic institutions? What reforms are working? And where do vulnerabilities remain? These questions extend beyond Nigeria. Across Africa, citizens are demanding greater accountability. Confidence in public institutions is being tested, and international support for democratic processes is evolving. From Zambia's recent elections to Kenya's upcoming vote in 2027, the lessons from these electoral cycles will help shape the future of democracy on the continent. >> [music] >> Welcome to Into Africa. I'm Oge Onubogu. Today, we're discussing Nigeria's road to the 2027 elections and what it tells us about democracy, governance, and citizen trust. Joining me today is Samson Itodo, executive director of Yaga Africa. Samson, thank you for joining me in the studio today, and welcome to the podcast. >> Thank you very much, Oge. Always a delight. >> Well, Samson, before we dive into uh Nigeria's 2027 elections, tell us a bit about Yaga Africa, especially for some of our listeners that might not be familiar with your institution. >> Once again, thanks for having me, Oke. Um so, Yaga Africa is a civic organization that operates to advance democracy um across Africa. Um next year will be our 20th year of of work. >> That long? >> Yeah, you know, [laughter] just like yesterday cuz you were there. >> I know. I was there 20 years >> Um like we say, we call you Mama Yaga [laughter] Africa cuz cuz Oke did give us our first grant um about 19 years ago. >> [laughter] >> Um so so we work you know, around elections. We work to also advance democratic leadership on the continent. And for Yaga Africa, um we see democracy um as citizens reclaiming their sovereignty as a people. So, it's pretty much how do we get citizens into the heart of public policy um making. So, that's what Yaga Africa is. And we have worked in the last um close to two decades just to advance democratic practice, mobilize citizens, give them the skills and the knowledge that they need to make democracy deliver for them. And at the heart of what we do is to give citizens the opportunity to demand or negotiate a new social compact with those who seek to lead them. >> Mhm. Oh, wonderful. So, let's uh you know, move to sort of the conversation on Nigeria's 2027 elections. As I said, many are already describing them as one of the most consequential political events that will take place on the continent in 2027. So, why are these elections important and what's at stake here? >> There's so much at stake. The Nigerian elections, like you mentioned in your opening remark, it's the cynosure of of the world because of Nigeria's strategic importance not just to Africa but but to the world. It's the most populous, it's got huge natural and and human resources. Nigeria has got so much to offer the world. And so this election is critical. Is it consequential one? Um because you have, you know, the incumbent party and the president who is seeking re-election. But there are several defining issues that are shaping the character of the 2027 elections that makes it very crucial. This is a country, you know, who is really grappling with what is insecurity, is grappling with economic hardship. But at the heart of the 2027 elections, it's really a test of Nigeria's democratic journey. And some will say yes, Nigeria is not a democracy. Some will say, "Oh yes, it is an authoritarian government." But as far as we are concerned, the the 2027 elections will test not just our democracy, it will test our institutions, it will also test the resilient of of the Nigerian people coming against the background of the harsh economic conditions that they experience. >> So let's explore further that point of if Nigeria is a democracy or not. So the national elections are in January of next year and the state elections are in February. These elections are coming a little earlier than we've seen in previous electoral cycles. So you've spent many years working on the intersection of elections and citizen participation. From your vantage point, how would you describe the health of democracy in Nigeria today? >> Well, I would say that Nigeria's democracy can be summarized in three words. Resilient but fragile. And when I say resilient, if you look at our democratic journey, you see where we have actually demonstrated resilience. We've had cycles of elections, even though elections don't equate to democracy. We've seen alternation of power. We've seen media and civil society playing instrumental roles in ensuring that democracy and governance delivers, you know, for for its people. But that is the resilient part. And resilience does not equate democratic consolidation. Cuz it's one thing to stay resilient, but it's another, you know, to consolidate. So, if you look at the different challenges, whether issues relating to declining public trust, a shrinking civic and and political space, you see insecurity. All of these challenges exist. But you know what, Oge, and maybe to actually go to one of this this this slides that that we have. And what Afrobarometer tells us, that 64% of Nigerians prefer democracy, you know, as the best form of government. So, a lot of Nigerians reject, you know, military dictatorship or authoritarian rule. They still prefer democracy. And that's what Afrobarometer really tells us. And so, when you think about Nigeria's democracy, I'll say, yes, it's got its own challenges, but it is resilient, but yet fragile. And this is why the next elections are very critical. It would really test, you know, our resilience as a people. And it's whether against the background of distrust, against this quality defection driven consolidation that we see, these elections are very critical. And we our expectation is that Nigeria will stand the test, you know, at the end of the day. >> Mhm. So, I think just uh driving on that point where you described Nigeria as resilient but fragile. And as you look at the country today, do you think the bigger challenge facing um democracy is the credibility of elections or the level of trust Nigerian citizens actually have in the democratic institutions to oversee these elections or just governance in general? >> So, I I I want to separate credibility from trust because um credibility produces trust. And the more you have uh processes that are not credible, the more you have distrust. But, let's look at what data even tells us. Um first, when you look at what Afrobarometer also says about the levels of trust. >> Mhm. >> Um the trust levels in the electoral commission are very low. Uh you have only 23% uh of of Nigerians trust, you know, the electoral process. This was in 2023. When you look at it, um compared, you know, to 20 um 2017, there's been that net decline, about 12. um decline. And all this is just driven by one, is it that inconsistency, you know, in the application of electoral rules by the electoral commission? >> Mhm. >> Or is this undue political interference with the electoral commission? Because I say this consistently that Nigeria's electoral commission does not have a technical problem. >> Mhm. >> It has a political problem. Because the INEC, Nigeria's INEC can conduct the best of elections. It's got the technical proficiencies to do that. The bigger question is whether the ruling political elite will allow the electoral commission conduct um um credible polls. And whether the electoral commission itself, you know, has the courage to withstand political pressure. And that's the bigger question, you know, for for 2027. So, so in terms of trust, there are low levels of of of distrust. But you know what, Oge? The when you think about what actually drives this, I I I I say that there are three big challenges and threats to this 2027 um elections. The first one is money. Um, we at YIAGA Africa say the 2027 elections might be the most commercialized and most expensive elections. First, the electoral commission is already has already budgeted close to a trillion um naira. Um, and that's close to um plus or minus close to a billion dollars um for um the election. If you check the amount of money political actors used to buy votes, to procure votes on the elections. In the recent state level elections, votes sold for as high as 5,000 uh 50,000 naira. And it will be somewhere around plus plus or minus say between 15 to um to 20 to 20 dollars. >> are the recent state elections that just happened this year. >> state elections. So, think about it against the background where you have huge economic hardship, the purchasing power of citizens declining, you have poverty on the rise, and people are going to willfully sell um their their votes. So, money is one big threat. And so, when you see the outcome in next election, the big question is, are citizens making, you know, expressing their free choice? >> Mhm. >> Or that choice is being incentivized or is being compromised by this commodification of the voting process. The second big threat is what I call guns and basically violence. You see the levels of insecurity actually multi-dimensional insecurity coupled with this proliferation of small and light arms. Whether they are bandits or they are insurgents, whatever we call them, all of these can produce suppression. We are unsure whether in some of these places, whether they are called ungoverned spaces or whatever they are called, whether voting, you know, can occur in those places. If the electoral commission feels that it cannot deploy materials to certain locations, then elections won't hold. And what's the implication of that for meeting the required threshold, you know, to be declared a winner? The third one actually relates to the political class. And this is where political selfishness actually comes in. The inability of whether it's the opposition, you know, to build consensus around a particular candidate or the fact that you have political actors who continue to subjugate public institutions just on the altar of their own personal political interest. This selfishness coupled with guns, coupled with money, pose a huge threat, you know, to the credibility of the 2027 elections. And this is why it is critical that friends of Nigeria and Nigerians need to call these, you know, to send a strong message to the political class and the actors that Nigeria is too important for Nigerians and the world to experience any political instability driven by this sort of constellation of forces that are determined to undermine the democratic process for selfish reasons. >> And how many political parties are involved in this in the elections for next year? >> So, so there are 22 political parties. >> Quite a crowded space. >> Yeah, very crowded space. But you know, there was a time, [laughter] exactly, there was a time we had 91 political parties before they were deregistered because they didn't meet the threshold. So, the I I neck, the electoral commission, has indicated that 22 parties are fielding candidates for the presidential elections, the national assembly elections, the state governorship elections, as well as the state legislature. Those are the elections taking place. The first round on the 16th of January, that's the presidential and national assembly elections. And then on the 6th of February, you have state governorship elections in only 28 states. Um and then you have um state house of assembly um elections. So, those are the elections happening um in in January and February. >> Yeah, and in only 28 states because they've already conducted some off-cycle >> Exactly. >> off-cycle elections. >> um disrup- disruptions in the calendar for those um for those states um as a result of court's pronouncements. >> Mhm. So, I want to go back to something that you said about Nigeria's um electoral commission, where you said it doesn't have a technical problem, what it has is a political problem. So, as we sit here today, what is your assessment of Nigeria's preparedness for the 2027 elections? What lessons from the 2023 elections and recent off-cycle state elections should Nigerians keep in mind as the country heads towards next year? >> So, with respect to preparedness, let's look at what data tells us. >> Mhm. >> So, first, Yaga Africa conducts what we call the national national voter intention survey, >> Mhm. >> where due to this crisis of distrust, we're asking citizens if they intend, you know, to cast their vote because one of the things that have been keeping us awake at night post 2023, and I'll come to the issues about the lessons, was this levels of distrust. >> Mhm. >> A lot of Nigerians, like the data tells us, do not trust that their votes will count. >> Mhm. And so, we are asking Nigerians to tell us if they intend to vote. In the first iteration, it was clear that 77% of Nigerians are interested in voting in the 2027 elections. They They want to vote. But, the big question is whether, you know, they believe that their votes will count. And if you check what data also tells us is that 76% of them actually believe that their votes can make a difference. It can influence the outcome. However, based on the national voting intention survey, only 45% express interest that INEC is able to conduct, you know, a credible >> [laughter] >> election. And this is just the first iteration. But, you know what it was really staggering and not necessarily shocking was that 42% of those respondent actually fear that violence might be a major barrier to their participation. So, the question for Nigerians is not whether they are interested in voting. They're interested in voting. However, they are concerned and worried whether the institutions that are constitutionally mandated with the responsibility to protect their votes will be able to do that. And so, when you think about the issue regarding preparedness, yes, Nigeria is preparing for the elections. One, the legal framework is set. We have a new legal framework, the 2026 electoral act, which I will say it's not better than the 2022 one, but again, the National Assembly gave this law. The second is the technology. We've also seen advancement in the technologies deployed for elections what we call the voter accreditation device called the Bivas as well as the electronic the portal for the publication of results with other words what is called the IRev. So these two technologies Bivas and the IRev were considered the game-changers in 2023 elections. Now they've been upgraded. And so when you think about what lessons that we've learned you know from the 2023 elections is do not over promise and under deliver because one of the lessons from 2023 was that the electoral commission over promised but then under delivered when it came to the issue around managing the transmission of of results. The other lesson is that you can have the best of technologies. You can have the best of logistics but if the personal integrity of those who are managing these processes are not guaranteed all of these will be brought to their knees. That is why the personal integrity of those who are managing elections is very very very critical and is non-negotiable. I think the other lesson you know from 20 23 um general elections is that technology is not a silver bullet that is a means to an end but it's not a silver bullet. So we have to regulate you know the trust and hope that we put on on on technology. And I'll say one of the striking things that we learned you know from the 2023 elections is that institutions matter more than handling logistics and elections. What do we mean? The courts have a critical role to play. If the courts and the judiciary does not rise up to the occasion when instrumentalizing the power it has for judicial review, if it doesn't do so dispassionately with a high levels of integrity, it can undermine public confidence. And as of today, when you talk about the trust levels for INEC, it's the same thing with the judiciary. Where you have conflicting judgments, where you have judicial misconduct, or you have forum shopping, all of these issues and practices undermine public trust, you know, in the judiciary. You know, back in the days in the university, we were told that the judiciary is the backbone of hope for the common man. But in today's world, and particularly in Nigeria, if you ask the average Nigerian, do they trust that they can obtain justice in the courts? I think you're going to get very mixed responses. And that does not portend well. And you know what, Oge? Few days ago, I was privileged to moderate a debate with presidential candidates in the 2027 elections at the Nigerian Bar Association conference somewhere in Port Harcourt. And I asked the last question in that debate, and Peter Obi, uh Amaechi, one of the prominent guys, if they would accept the outcome of the election if they lose. >> I'm I'm sure you got some interesting responses. >> In fact, majority of them said they were not going to go to court. And for me, it was a reminder of the damage, you know, the Nigerian state and its institutions have done to the trust and confidence. And as someone who has a law background and a lawyer, I felt really broken that people have really lost faith that they can get justice. >> Mhm. >> You know, from the court. And it was a wake-up call. And I hope that the Nigerian judiciary will rise to the occasion. You know, and resist any form of external pressure wherever it comes from >> Mhm. >> to deliver justice. >> Mhm. >> And if your presidential candidates are telling you to your face that they would not go to the court because they don't see the court as institutions of justice, it then tells you what portends. >> Mhm. >> If we're not careful, they might exploit extrajudicial uh means, you know, for settling electoral disputes. And that's not where Nigeria should be at this point. >> Mhm. And so, how receptive has INEC and the judiciary and some other democratic institutions, how receptive have they been to some of these lessons that you've shared? Because most of this is really public. People are talking about it. You could really see uh that citizens are really concerned about this. How receptive have they been to some of this? >> I I I think with respect to uh well, let's look at INEC. INEC has adopted some of the recommendations. >> Mhm. >> Whether from international observers or from civil society groups, um INEC continues to engage with stakeholders >> Mhm. >> and take um and try to address some of those concerns. So, they're quite receptive. >> Mhm. >> Um for the judiciary, maybe because of the nature, you know, of the judiciary. But I know that prior to elections, >> Um >> organizations conduct trainings for the judiciary to understand um the rules. But you know, okay, in in in law, there are certain principles that have to be upheld. For instance, when you see judicial precedents, because you have a hierarchy of course, especially when you have a Supreme Court, which is also a practice in the in the US. Um you have to comply or obey or adopt precedents that have been set by the apex court. But one of the troubling trends in Nigeria and in a recent matter was that a lower court judge ignored the directive of a court of appeal. And I'm so excited with how the court of appeal actually responded. Um aside calling out the judge, we were expecting to see more punitive sanctions against the judge who ignored you know, a precedent and a directive set by, you know, um a superior court. This levels of misconduct is is being perpetrated by certain judges because of their proximity to the politicians and the political class. And because when politics was allowed to enter the courtrooms, you saw judges who went rogue. Uh and they had no respect, you know, for laid down judicial rules and precedent. And that is really troubling. And I've heard this Chief Justice of the Federation talk about sanctioning judges. A few judges, you know, have been sanctioned. But Nigerians and the world wants to see more of those actions taken against um those judges who have been, you know, not just investigated, but have been convicted of judicial misconduct. >> Mhm. Oh, and Samson, I love the fact that you always go back to your legal background because I know when you all started Yaga, you guys were were law students at the University of [laughter] Jos. So, I'm sure your professors are very proud very PROUD OF THAT. >> UM BUT LET'S UH SORT of move forward little bit because we know that yes, elections matter, but uh, you know, making a democracy, it's more than elections. And so, many Nigerians experience democracy through two lenses, security and governance. And you highlighted the high levels of insecurity that we see across Nigeria. If citizens do not feel safe, can elections alone strengthen trust in democratic institutions? And you know, a second part to this question, how concerned should we be about insecurity affecting voter participation or the legitimacy of the electoral process? >> I think we should be very concerned. Let's again, you know, okay, let's look at what data tells us. So, this is the turnout um, trends um, in Nigeria's um, um, elections. Um, maybe before we come to this, let's let's let's look at this. So, from 1999 till 2027, when you check from 1999, there has been a decline. In fact, the the lowest was in 2023 with just 27%. Um, we don't know what the turnout will be. And if we are to predict, and one of the concerns that we have was that we're predicting perhaps the turnout for the 2027 elections might be somewhere between 18% and 20%. Uh, and that's even lower than 2023 um, because of these levels of distrust. And there isn't any sort of confidence um, building measures taken by all all the actors. You see some of them, but really citizens are really checking out when it comes to the levels of trust. We don't know what will be the number of registered voters, but we're estimated the the number of registered voters to be somewhere around 104 million. >> When do you think we will hear the the number >> Perhaps in the next 2 weeks INEC, the electoral commission, will release the final figures for voter registration. The continuous voter registration just ended, so they're in the process of cleaning up. So, they will share what that information is, but you can see from the graph that there's been a decline. And when you talk about security part of the reason why people are also not showing up it's because they don't feel secured. In the recent elections data puts the number of fatalities before the day of election to about 29. And these are election [clears throat] related killings. And so if the state isn't performing its responsibility to provide security for people, there's no way Nigerians are going to feel safe that their votes actually matter. In fact, when we asked Nigerians to tell us, you know, what are those three things that would influence the way they actually show up to vote, majority of them said insecurity. So, if the security is of the whether the polling units or the security of lives and property is guaranteed, you're going to experience higher levels of of turnout. But the bigger question is this election is being held against the background of multi-dimensional insecurity. Whether it's banditry, whether it's insurgency, the bigger question is how is the state responding to this? Yes, there've been all sorts of bilateral or trilateral partnerships around tackling this issue. But the situation of complete continues to get worse. In fact, ACLED actually puts it that there've been a 30% surge in the number of killings just in the last couple of months. Even fact even in the first quarter of 20 of 2026. Some people argue that it's because we are in an election season and there's a politicization of this. But forget elections. We've before elections we've had this insecurity. We we prior to the 2023 elections even after the 2023 elections. So the question is is the state really performing its function of securing the Nigerian people? I think it's not done a fair job in doing that and this is why people are also saying that security is also going to be on the ballot for 2027. How well have whether it's the federal government or the state government managed the issue of insecurity? One of the topical discussion is state police for for those who don't know what state police is about decentralization, you know, of of policing. The the federal government has been very active in trying to mobilize support for it. One of the concerns that people have is if you give the component the the states and state governors wouldn't they operationalize or exploit state police to advance political goals and objective? The other concern is why are we discussing state police just five months to an election? Why are we not waiting until after the election? Why didn't we address this long time ago? Why now? So there have been debates about this. But quite frankly, the Nigerian states needs to do more in protecting the lives of Nigerians because some Nigerians are concerned that they don't feel safe in their country. >> And so I I I think on this I I really want to stay on this question of of insecurity in the country for for a bit now because really as I hear you speak, thinking about the legitimacy of the outcome of these elections at the end of the day, how citizens will perceive this. What actions are the electoral commission taking now in terms of its coordination with security actors just to ensure that it can help build citizen trust in a process in in this upcoming process. And also Nigeria's political class too as well because politicians here are really at the core of a lot of these issues that we see. What actions, concrete actions, be it in the debates or the campaigning period that has kicked off now, what are we seeing on the ground? >> So when you look at this point about security, yes, there is a framework for managing election security which is the inter-agency committee on election security. And that committee, you know, is chaired, is co-chaired by the INEC chairman, the chair of the electoral commission, and the national security advisor. They work together to ensure that there's effective or efficient management of election security. The Nigerian police force is the lead agency when it comes to managing election security. Over the last couple of months and with the last two elections, we've seen an improvement in the level of cooperation and coordination with security agencies. We've seen massive deployment of security agencies to those elections. And from a YIAGA Africa standpoint, the Nigerian police did perform creditably well in the Ekiti and the Osun elections. These were recent elections. But okay, as you know Nigeria very well, these are just small elections. They're of just one state. We're now going into a general election where in the entire country, you know, you have this elections conducted in 176,000 polling units. Does our Does our security outfit and institutions have what it takes in terms of manpower to deploy, you know, across the entire country? The other issue relates to the neutrality of security agencies. And there have been concerns. For instance, in the recent election, citizens expressed concerns about the neutrality of the Commissioner of Police. Um yes, the Inspector General of Police took action by deploying another commissioner and asked that commissioner to step aside. But the Nigerian security architecture would need to inspire trust and confidence on the part of stakeholders that they are non- aligned and they work to advance, you know, the oath that they swear in the constitution, which is secure provide security for all. A situation where opposition candidates or supporters don't feel safe to come in. You cannot say that you've created a level playing field for all. A situation where political actors have made incendiary and and infuriating and comments about the electoral process does not inspire confidence. I'll give a classic example. In a recent election, a member of the Nigerian Senate, a senator in the election, made some comments about encouraging supporters to kill voters who were not voting his own party of choice. >> Mhm. >> And all that happened was he was invited and he was warned. Few days ago, >> Mhm. >> a local government chairman threatened people in his local government that if they don't vote for his party, >> Mhm. >> they should vacate their residence and leave the local government. >> Mhm. >> When you have these kinds of hate speech, these kinds of incendiary statements, and there's no repercussion or consequence for it, you're not just shrinking the political space, but you're actually encroaching on the freedom of expression. And these kinds of statements is what heats up the polity that would later snowball into violence and political stability. And Nigeria cannot descend into that. We're already dealing with different forms of insecurity. Another implosion, I doubt if the country can actually handle it. It's not even good, not just for Nigeria, but for the region and for friends and allies like the United States because you do have and the US does have interest in in Nigeria. And if things continue the way they are going and you don't have security agencies, you know, reprimanding, you know, political actors who encourage violence, >> Mhm. >> then we are actually heading for a disaster. And these are the issues um because we're now in the campaign season and there was a peace accord, you know, that was signed by some of the actors. Although, the two main candidates Well, not Let me Let me say the two main candidates. Two one of two of them two amongst the main candidates didn't show up. Um the ADC candidates, they didn't show up. The APC candidate, which is the current president, didn't show up to sign um the national the peace accord. >> Mhm. >> And that peace accord was just geared towards ensuring that they do not engage in character assassination, that the campaign season is devoid of hate speech, devoid of false and disinformation, and when political actors, you know, refrain from making these public commitments, it just tells you where their heart is. >> Mhm. So, you know, it may not necessarily inspire a lot of confidence if as you mentioned with the peace accord that some of the major candidates did not were not involved in the signing of that accord, but I think it's also encouraging to hear that there are these meetings that are happening between the chair of the INEC and the national security adviser to ensure security leading up to the elections. And as you all know, the Nigeria's national security adviser was just in the US a few a few weeks ago >> Mhm. >> because there is the US-Nigeria security working group. So, really hoping that attention is put on these levels of insecurity moving into the elections next year. >> Yeah. >> Um, so let me talk about young people in Nigeria because this is a core constituency of the work of your work at YIAGA. We see young Nigerians have become increasingly engaged in in the political process and increasingly engaged politically in general. So, how do you assess the impact of young people going into these elections? >> Yeah, I I I think that a lot of young people are mobilizing actively for for the elections. Um, you you see that whether it's online and offline, they're engaging. But, you know what, Oge, when we looked at the national voting intention survey, >> Mhm. >> majority of young people said they weren't going to cast their vote. >> Ouch. That's >> And the reason is simple that one, their material conditions have not improved since they voted at the last time. >> Mhm. >> And two, they don't trust that their votes will count. >> Mhm. >> Now, what you see on the part of a a lot of young Nigerians is this conditional disengagement, you know, from um the political uh process. Now, it doesn't mean that they do not clamor for democracy. They don't want democracy. No. All they are saying is that this democracy that is being practiced, it's not meeting their expectations. And therefore, staying away might be an an option because it's a waste of time. >> Mhm. >> And we've called on young people to actually flip that. That staying away from voting at elections actually makes it worse. >> Mhm. >> Because what the political actors, especially those ones who are unpopular, they don't want you to show up because they know when you show up in your large numbers, >> Mhm. >> you will tilt the balance of power. You will influence the outcome. But they don't want you to show up. So, young people need to make their voices and their numbers count, you know, in the next um in the 2027 >> Mhm. >> elections. Some will say, "Yes, the parties are presenting the same candidates. So, there's nothing new." And we say, "Yes, even if there's nothing new, scrutinize >> Mhm. >> the the the the their manifestos. Check, have they shifted in their position? But if you look across the candidates, believe me, you might find one of those candidates because showing up is really critical. >> Mhm. >> And the message for 2027 is to protect your vote. That is what the people in Osun did. >> Mhm. >> By showing up, you know, to vote for a candidate of their choice, and they protected their votes. That is why they got the outcome that they got. >> Mhm. >> So, to stay away, it means that you're going to leave these bad politicians to continue to to rule and govern. Actually, they rule, they don't govern. They rule over you. >> Mhm. >> So, one way to get them out is to show up, make informed voting choices, stay there to protect, you know, the ballot, but note that that's just the beginning. Because the real work of making democracy deliver starts after elections. It's about tracking campaign promises. It's about checking budgets and ensuring that governments deliver. >> [laughter] >> It's about performing your role as a citizen to pay your taxes. It's about you know, engaging in political party organizing where you can. Run for elective office within your political party structure. It's about volunteering to fix one social problem within your community because government is not going to do all. You as a citizen have a role to play. That is how democracies thrive. That's how societies are built. That's how a nation, you know, rises up, you know, from its lowest moment to its highest moment. It's the state and citizens working together. So, we must not always think that everything has to be done by the state. Yes, the state has its own responsibility. Where it fails, it behooves on citizens to call out the state and say, "You're failing in this responsibility." And showing up to vote terrible and bad leaders out of office is part of the role and the duty that you have to save your democracy. >> Mhm. Wonderful points that you've made across the board and, you know, this definitely applies beyond youth population, but also to civil society in general in Nigeria. In Nigeria, typically, it's always had a very vibrant civil society. Would you still say that's the case going into 2027? And sort of as you uh uh good point that you made there was, you know, looking beyond election day itself. Um how should civil society organizations really engage proactively after elections, regardless of whatever the outcome is? >> I I >> And you said the state of Nigeria and civil society. Yes, you still have a very active, you know, civil society. But I think we can do better with better and effective coordination. >> Mhm. >> Um yes, the entire civil the entire civil society ecosystem, you know, have been disrupted due to um the shrinking um donor space. Um in fact, in certain climes to be called a civil society actor um is one title and and label that a lot of people refrain from because you have a lot of government-sponsored um civil society organizations. You have some civil society organizations, you know, being used as instruments, you know, of uh of subversion. Um but then, you have credible organizations who are doing great work. And I think these groups require more support. One of the things that I think we have to learn is that our civil society, when we say we speak for the people, we must not eliminate the people from the conversation. That we exist as interlocutors between the state and citizens. And that's our role. We cannot be the voice, you know, of citizens. And citizens on their part must also not abdicate their responsibility of vigilance to civil society organizations. And because you have a role, you know, as a citizen to play. >> [snorts] >> I think the second is often we we just focus political mobilization prior to the elections. It's election season. A lot of groups are going to show up that they want to do work on elections. And after elections, they go to sleep. The real work of making democracy deliver starts the day the results have been declared. And it's from day one, you have to put the fire on the foot of people you've recruited. And I've said this, on elections, election is like an interview. It's a job interview. You interview the candidate prior. On that day. Once you cast your vote, you have selected a candidate whom you've employed to take decisions on your behalf and serve you. So, anyone who emerges out of an election is the employee, you know, of the voters who are the employers. Therefore, you can't employ someone and just let them rule and govern. No, you have to ask them questions because democracy is about asking questions. But, you must ask the right question at the right time, directed at the right individual or the institution. And this is where civil society play a critical role in political education. We have to enlighten people to understand the implication of the choices that they make and how whatever comes out of an election, that they have a role to play in ensuring that that leadership delivers, you know, for the people. The other role that civil society has to play is you you providing data to facilitate policy making. Often, we think public institutions have the information and the data they require to make policies. Our work at YIAGA Africa in the last two decades has really shown that there are times that public institutions are seeking for information, seeking for new knowledge, seeking for new data, but they can't access it. And this is where civil society organizations play a critical role. Over the last three decades, we've seen, you know, that transition where civil society organizations are custodian of very important data that the state does not have. While civil society cannot take the place of the state, but we can support policy makers to make right decisions and also try to evaluate those decisions, which brings me to the third point. For instance, when you look at government when you look at laws, legislations, and policies, it behooves on civil society to scrutinize those laws from one, a citizen's lens to ensure that it advances inclusion, transparency, and accountability. And because there's the expertise that civil society groups have. And often people think that civil society groups just comprise of NGOs. No, they are professionals. They are subject matter experts, you know, in civil society organizations that can actually advance the work of government. And look across the world, governments that have succeeded, you would find that there has been strategic engagement with that particular um sector. >> [snorts] >> And and lastly to say that civil society, yes, needs to reinvent itself. And look at what new ways of of whether revenue generation or funding streams, so we don't continually depend, you know, where on donors for the work that we do. >> So, let's zoom out a little bit because a lot of the points that you've highlighted on civil society also apply to several countries across the continent too as well. So, Zambia recently completed its own election cycle and Kenya is preparing for elections also in 2027. What are the lessons that are emerging across the continent now and from your vantage point on where you sit in Nigeria? >> So, let me begin by one lesson that Kenya should not learn from Nigeria. [laughter] And maybe to look at So, when you look at the defining issues, I wanted to pull these up. When you look at the defining issues for the 2027 elections, the first one is actually this sort of defection driven sort of consolidation. What do I mean? Okay, let's begin here. So, this is the electoral map. >> Mhm. >> If you look at pre-the 2023 elections, if you look at post, and then here we are prior to 2027. You look at the map. In 2023, before 2023, the APC, that's the ruling party, had 21 states. And then PDP controlled 14, and then Abga had one. After the 2023 elections, this was what happened. The APC got 19, PDP 12. And then you have Abga. Look at the map in June. Actually, maybe actually in August and even September. This is what the map actually says. We've gradually we've transitioned from being, you know, a well well since we're still a politically plural state, but look at where we are. You see, the APC controls 31 31 states. Most of the reds have now become blue. So, you have only four states of the 36 states, you know, governed by by other political parties. And even all these other political parties are also tacitly supporting the the APC. When you look at the Nigerian Senate, cuz we have a bicameral legislature. >> Yeah, similar to the US. >> Similar to the US. In June, this was the distribution of seats. The APC had 59, the EPD B had 36. As of today, this is where we stand. You've also seen that the APC has simple majority in the Senate with 88 seats. And then it's the same thing in the House of Reps. If there's one thing that Kenya must learn from um Nigeria, please do not become a one-party dominated state. >> Mhm. >> Because when you take competition out of democracy, it loses its vitality. >> Yeah. >> And most of this defection, aside the fact that they are induced, >> Mhm. >> some of them it's either they were blackmailed due to control of um funding streams from the federal government or the use of anti-corruption agencies to intimidate opposition um um governors. The other thing they must also learn is this fragmented opposition. >> Mhm. >> A- and that's what you see um within within Nigeria. Uh these are so- some of the sort of lessons. But I'll say one thing, preparation is key. >> Yeah. >> You've got to plan ahead. You're dealing with elections, you're dealing with a very complex human um technical, financial, social, and even economic um exercise. Therefore, you need to plan way ahead. It's good that Kenya has issued its own timetable and I same with with um with Nigeria. So, preparation is very key. The second point is that election does not end on election day. >> Yeah. >> You've got to plan for post-election. And one lesson from Zambia, and which is highly condemnable, >> Mhm. >> is this attempt to clamp down on the opposition forces um by either shutting down the courts and preventing the opposition from filing its petition on the day that's the deadline for filing, >> Mhm. >> you know, um um what's was to close. And then this arrest, you know, when you do that, you not only undermine democracy, >> Yeah. >> you you institutionalize authoritarian rule. >> Yeah. >> And we must say this and we will not stop saying this, that a compromised process >> cannot produce a credible outcome. When the political environment is compromised, when you don't create a level playing field, when there's this entrenched exercise of incumbency power, you cannot attest to the legitimacy of of the outcome. And that's one of the challenges. And this is one thing Nigeria also, you know, needs to learn going into the elections, that the legitimacy of the outcome is very important. Because you can choose to get the votes whichever way you procure it, but if the people don't feel and see you as a legitimate outcome or winner of an election, there's no way they're going to believe or trust um you. And that can snowball, you know, into political crisis, which is well something we must avoid. And and I keep saying that the the the the peaceful conduct of the next of the Nigerian election is too important, not just for Nigeria, but for the rest of the world. I think the other lesson is technology. And I say this, again, do not over promise and under deliver. >> We should make a bumper sticker with that. >> I [laughter] Yeah. So, we have we must know that technologies have their vulnerabilities and they are not a silver bullet. They might have the best of technology, if the person managing that entire process is compromised, it will produce, you know, a compromised outcome. So, we have to really keep an eye. And this is why electoral commissions will need to test their systems before they deploy them. There's need for penetration test. There's need for stress tests, so you don't have issues, so you can resolve those issues before the day of an election. The courts are also critical. And so, the independence of the judiciary, >> Mhm. >> the courage of the judiciary to limit the exercise of executive powers is also critical in ensuring that elections deliver outcomes that are a reflection of the will and aspiration of the people. >> Mhm. >> And lastly, this whole attempt, you know, as we see it across Africa, where laws are applied >> Mhm. >> in a way that they disqualify um key opposition candidates from from running, either through the courts or the use of courts, you know, to um to to disrupt leadership structures within political parties, >> Mhm. >> that can actually serve as electoral coups. >> Yeah. >> And we have to be careful about using these kinds of tactics in this playbook of election riggers, because the people are watching. >> Yeah. >> And they are watching, and they are watching, and we must know that we're at a point where citizens are determined to take their destinies in their hands and rising up to reclaim democracy. And they are doing so not violently, but through peaceful means. That is what the GenZ's did >> Mhm. >> with the GenZ Masar protest in Madagascar. >> Mhm. >> That was the statement on the streets in Morocco when the GenZ 212 movement. It was the same message the GenZ's in Kenya were also passing to the political class. The same message that the young people in Nigeria and the EndSARS protest. These efforts are geared towards not just challenging political structure, traditional political structures, but citizens are saying democracy has to deliver better, >> Mhm. >> and that this current crop of leaders are failing in meeting the expectations of Nigerians and and and Africans. >> Well, hopefully the political class is listening and in some cases it seems they're not listening well enough. Um but let me also as we zoom out and we look at sort of the um the continent more broadly and just the state of democracy and governance support programming um more globally. You know, for decades um election support from partners such as the United States has played a role in strengthening democratic processes across Africa. And obviously as you've referenced in some of the remarks that you've made, we've seen a significant significant decline in in um support for democracy governance uh programs funding for these types of programs. As these priorities are shifting, what does this mean for election support on the continent, elections on the continent? And what role uh should domestic election observers be playing now to fill those gaps? And what role are they already playing here? >> Well, I think that's a very um topical discussion within the uh election ecosystem. And yes, it's really challenging. You the funding for democracy work and election support has declined dramatically um across across the world. It's not just the US saying including um the UK um even um the EU. There there's a a redistribution, a realignment, you know, um of of um of interest. Someone calls it um pragmatic realism. Um where um nations are are beginning to think about, you know, what's the topical issue. And first is about their their interest. >> Yeah. >> Now, when you think about that, yes, it's affected the ecosystem, but domestic or citizens observers group need to see this as an opportunity of reinventing, you you ourselves and looking at, you know, um, ways of of mobilizing citizens to exercise agency. And I say that, you know, gone are those days when, um, civil society or citizen or election observation groups engage in mass mobilization, you know, of citizens. We have to go back to those days. We have to go back to the days where citizens are volunteering, you know, to do this work. But the point that you make actually reveals, uh, no, it reinforces >> Yeah. >> a more structural structural issue with respect to this. And the question is, you're not going to solve this by replacing um, another donor, replacing >> One donor >> one donor with with with another donor. That's not how you're going to solve solve this at all. Um, the the question is, this moment calls for greater international solidarity. >> Mhm. >> And this is where domestic and international, you know, um, observers and donors actually play a critical role standing in solidarity with each other and reinforcing, you know, some of these issues. I think we're at a time when it's not fashionable to talk about democracy. We're at a time when democracy, yes, it does need the crafting of a new narrative, undoubtedly. >> Yeah. >> But this time also calls for courage. That it's not a time for us to shift, um, because of certain nations that have taken decisions about whether they're going to support democracy or not. No, this time actually calls for more, you know, profound, more strategic, and more assertive, you know, language about democracy because we have seen how democracy has delivered progress, you know, in certain communities. So, this is not a time, you know, to be shy, um, about, um, democracy and and its future. But the other part is that when you think about this, there's so much that the US can learn from Africa. >> Yeah. There's so much that the EU can learn from Africa. And that when you think about democracy and the knowledge produced, that it's not always democratic knowledge from the West that should apply and that we will continue to be recipients, you know, of democratic knowledge and resources. No, I think this time actually calls for the reverse because in Nigeria we've seen new election observation methodologies developed by citizens groups like like Yaga Africa. We've seen whether it's Senegal or in Kenya citizens designing and developing tools for tracking public expenditure, for advancing democratic practice. So, I think this is actually a time where countries like the US can actually learn, you know, from from from from Nigeria. So, I see this more as an opportunity and and I know that I have friends in this space who are on the US side who are seeking, you know, for organizations on the African side to learn from how we are able, you know, to to to be resilient given our long years of our own democratic journey. So, that that's where I see this actually going. >> see any of that innovative exchange happening now? >> No, I think we need to see more of that. Again, it's still at an incubation stage, but but conversations are on. I've been part of several conversations about how do we import some of those knowledge from the global south or from Africa to the global north, or particularly in the US. Well, we need more of that. And I think this time the global north needs to be humble to learn from the global south because I tell you there are lots of things there. Lots of problems that you deal with in the global north that we in the global south have actually dealt with and there's so much that you can learn, whether it's in democracy or in other spheres of human endeavor. >> Yeah, and I think, you know, to the point that you make, for so long the the narrative around democracy strengthening, and this has been unintentional, has always been crafted as, you know, sort of support from the west coming to to the rest. And I I think, as you rightly pointed out, there is an opportunity now for partnership, for learning, and exchange of of knowledge. So, I want to go into a quick round of questions here with you, Samson. And as a lawyer, I will see if you can keep your responses very brief and short and straight to the point here. So, in one word, how would you describe Nigeria's democracy today? >> I'll say resilient. >> Resilient, very good. So, what worries you the most about Nigeria's democratic future? >> Hm. I'll say the sort of selfishness of Nigeria's political class. >> Hm. And so, what do you think, well, in your own words, what's the most underestimated threat facing the 2027 elections? >> Hm. The distrust, the levels of distrust. I I I I think we we have not come to terms with how Nigerians don't really trust >> Mhm. >> that they don't trust the electoral process. I think we're still romanticizing the conversation, because if we do, I bet you all the institutions >> Mhm. >> will be awake at night seeking to inspire trust and uh confidence on the part of the Nigerian people. >> Hm. So, if given the opportunity from where you sit, Samson, what is one reform you would implement today to get things right towards strengthening the 2027 elections. >> If there's one thing I will do is I will strengthen the results management process. >> Mhm. >> Um because currently there are certain ambiguities that needs to be addressed. Um I'll strengthen the results management um um process. >> Mhm. And so what's the most encouraging trend or most encouraging democratic trend you see in Africa today? >> The most um inspiring democratic trend I see on the continent is just citizens not not giving up. >> Mhm. >> Despite all these challenges citizens have not given up. >> Mhm. >> Uh you've just seen the data from Nigeria that despite all these challenges you still have Nigerians saying they want to vote. >> Mhm. >> Afrobarometer tells us that 60-something percent of Nigerians still clamor for democracy. So, even in the face of this malgovernance, the face of um this dysfunctionality >> Mhm. >> people still believe that democracy still matters and it counts. So, for me, it's the most it is the most inspiring trend, not giving up. >> Mhm. So, what would you say is the one thing um Americans or you know, global folks who do not live in Nigeria or on the continent, what is the one thing um consistently misunderstood about African elections? >> I think they underestimate um the knowledge and understanding that Africans have about their own elections. >> Mhm. >> And that's why like you referenced they think that we have to be taught democracy. We we have to know how to manage elections. No. Um Africans know very much about their democracy, about how to govern their societies. So, because you see people just show up on the continent and say, "Oh, you've got to do things this way. You've got to do things this way." And they assume that we don't know. And I think that that needs to change. It's the same way you see you know, I don't want to say more in that, but but I'll leave it at that point. I think that one thing they get wrong, that there are Africans who know how to govern their societies, it's just that you have a predatory political class that has stopped them from achieving that potential. >> Thank you so much for your responses to to those questions. So, you know, when we look back at this period, when historians are out there analyzing this period a few [laughter] years from now, this this interesting place that we find ourselves from the elections in Nigeria, upcoming elections in Kenya, and just elections across the the continent, and just the decline that we also see in funding to democracy and governance programs, what do you hope they will say about the resilience and state of democracy on the continent? >> One other thing I I hope they will say is that when Senegal was facing its challenge with constitutional was constitutionalism, that people rose and stopped Macky Sall from acquiring a third term or extending his term. When they look back, they will say young Kenyans engaged their president against the introduction of the finance bill, even though it found its way back. Mhm. But I will say that young people and citizens, you know, are so determined to reclaim their society from their political leaders. And that despite these challenges that in this moment that they they they were defiant. >> Mhm. >> Uh and that's what I I hope that historians will see in this but and say about this particular moment. Because it's really an inspiring moment. I'm not Uh there's so much despair, no doubt. And I can understand. But you know, democracy is a struggle. >> Yes, it is. >> You [laughter] would win some, you would lose some, but you have to keep up the struggle. >> Mhm. >> And every day I see young people struggling online. I see them struggling offline. And I see whether it's women or persons with disability reclaiming their rights. >> Mhm. >> That gives me a lot of hope. And I hope that when historians write about this moment, they will say there lied a generation that never gave up even when the circumstances were enough to let them check out. >> Mhm. Well, thank you so much, Samson. And you have, you know, sort of highlighted what gives you hope. And you have spent many years working on this issue. You just mentioned Yaga is coming up on 20 years. I can't believe that. And you know, you've spoken about what gives you hope. And we always end our cast on a personal note. >> Mhm. >> And so, is there a book by a Nigerian author or music or a song by a Nigerian musician that captures the hope you feel, the hope you have for Nigeria's democratic journey and the future of the country? >> If I say a song, it will be Timi Dakolo's Great Nation. >> Mhm. I love that song. >> Yeah, that's that's an anthem because it evokes you know, that spirit of nationalism and that anything is possible >> Yeah. >> if we as a people are determined you know, to do that. So, that for me that that that would be the song. Um, Great Nation by Timi Dakolo. >> Mhm. Well, thank you so much, Samson, for joining us on the podcast today. And really as Nigeria prepares for the 2027 elections many eyes will focus, as you rightfully said, on the outcome of the elections. But perhaps the most enduring question here is what those elections will reveal about the relationship between citizens and the state. >> Mhm. >> As we've discussed today, the biggest story is about trust. >> Mhm. >> Trust in institutions, trust in leadership, and trust that citizens can shape their country's future. The questions facing Nigeria are not unique. >> Mhm. >> Across Africa, countries are grappling with issues of governance, security, participation, and public confidence. And as you've rightfully pointed out, there is also reason for optimism. And despite the many, many challenges, many Africans remain committed to the idea that government should be accountable to the people. So, we'll certainly be following Nigeria's 2027 elections closely as well as other important elections um, across the continent in the coming years. It'll be fascinating to see how these elections unfold and what they reveal about um, the democratic process not only in Nigeria, but across the the continent. And that's why these conversations are are important. So, thank you so much again, Samson, for joining us today. >> And I'll never forget saying thank you for taking a chance with Yaga Africa cuz that's why we're here today because [laughter] of people like you. >> Yeah, thank you so much, Samson. And to our listeners, thank you as well for listening to Into Africa. >> [music]