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NFL Picks & Spreads - Week 1 2026

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The video begins by introducing a tool called Sharps for viewers who wish to make their own picks without cost, offering scores and performance tracking before diving into Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. The first matchup features the Rams and 49ers playing in Australia, where the San Francisco team gained a strategic advantage by flying out a week early to build a stronger home-field presence, while the Rams arrived just a day prior with Aaron Donald listed as inactive despite George Kittle's availability. Although the speaker believes the Rams should theoretically win, they are picking the 49ers to take the game based on their superior preparation and fan base momentum in Australia. The analysis continues across various Sunday afternoon games, starting with the Chicago Bears traveling to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers, where Ben Johnson aims to lead a historic high-scoring offense against an inconsistent Panthers unit, leading to a pick for the Bears. The Cincinnati Bengals are favored over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite expectations of a high-scoring affair, as the speaker views the Bengals as a 12-win team with an improved defense, though they warn fans to watch out for Ruben Bane. In a potential upset, the Saints are expected to defeat the Lions in a high-scoring game due to injuries to key defensive players like Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch, although the speaker still favors the Lions while acknowledging that Tyler Shook could throw close to 300 yards. The forecast shifts to lower-scoring games involving championship-caliber defenses, such as the Houston Texans hosting the Buffalo Bills, where the speaker predicts a close contest but picks the Bills to win due to lingering playoff bitterness against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens are favored over the Indianapolis Colts after improvements in their defense and the expected return of Trey Hendrickson, even though the Colts' offense may take time to recover from Daniel Jones' Achilles injury. Other notable predictions include the Jacksonville Jaguars as heavy favorites over the Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers winning at home against an inconsistent Atlanta Falcons team missing key edge rushers, and the New York Jets overcoming a struggling Tennessee Titans offense thanks to offseason additions. The final segment covers late afternoon and prime-time matchups, with the Los Angeles Chargers favored over the Arizona Cardinals despite a strong preseason showing for the Cardinals' offense, while the Las Vegas Raiders are picked to beat the Miami Dolphins due to their significant offseason investments in players like Quinyshad Davis and Nico Collins. The Minnesota Vikings, bolstered by Kyler Murray's acquisition, are expected to defeat the Green Bay Packers thanks to offensive stability and home-field advantage. The video concludes with the Philadelphia Eagles favored over the Washington Commanders despite identity issues for the latter, the Dallas Cowboys winning against the New York Giants due to Malik Nabors' injury timeline, and the Kansas City Chiefs taking the Monday Night Football game against the Denver Broncos at home, as the speaker believes both teams will split their season but favors the home team eager to prove last year's success was not a fluke.
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If you wanted to make picks yourself completely free, try out the Sharps. They'll give you a score and tell you how well you've been doing picking games. Click the link in the description. Week one is underway. The Rams and 49ers play in Australia. San Francisco adjusted their clock by flying out a week early, while the Rams, they're winging it and flew out just a day before. Things to note are Aaron Donald is inactive, while George KD, he'll be playing. I'm picking the 49ers to win this one. Ideally, the Rams, they should win, but the 49ers, they were able to build a fan base by traveling so early, so they'll have the home field advantage. Over to Sunday, the Chicago Bears travel to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers. Ben Johnson has his eyes set on making this the highest scoring offense ever. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense, fortunately, it's hit or miss. And because of that, giving the Bears to win this one on the road. There was some doubt on whether DeAndre Swift or Kyle Manungai would miss this game, but they both seem like they're going to be good to go. The Cincinnati Bengals versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You'd expect this to be a high-scoring game, but it's week one. The Bucks defense also will be much better than people think, but despite that, I'm taking the Bengals to win. They're a 12- win team in my eyes, and their defense has improved as well. But watch out for Ruben Bane this season. In what could be the upset of the week, the Saints could beat the Lions. That's what I had penciled in until Jordan Tyson got hurt. But I do expect this to be a high-scoring game. The Lions secondary will be missing Kirby Joseph, Brian Branch. They also released Tyion Arnold, so expect a lot of passing in this game. I'm still taking the Lions to win, but don't be surprised if Tyler Shuck is throwing close to 300 yards. From one high-powered game to a lowscoring one, the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills. Week one, as you saw with the Patriots and the Seahawks, is universally lower scoring. With the championship caliber defense, the Texans will keep this one close. However, I'm taking the Bills to win this week. There's still a bad taste in their mouths from the playoffs against the Broncos. One thing to note for the Texans, Kahan Booty is expected to be heavily involved. The two cities tied to the Colts franchise, Baltimore and Indianapolis. The good news for the Ravens fans is that the defense won't be nearly as bad as it was last season. Trey Hendrickson as a muchneeded boost, which is why I'm picking the Ravens to win. I believe the Colts offense can get to the point that they were at at the first half of 2025, but it might take a couple weeks to work Daniel Jones back in coming off that injured Achilles. The Cleveland Browns versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a game with a lot of unknowns. Interested to see how the Browns defense does without Miles Garrett. And also interested to see how the Jaguars deploy their wide receivers. Picking the Jaguars to win this one. Honestly, not really much to say here and hardly any debate here. I think a lot of people would agree that the Jaguars are the heavy favorites. The Atlanta Falcons versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. The overunder for Atlanta's win total is 7 and a half this season. To me, seven wins, that's their ceiling. We know how inconsistent this offense can be, and they're also missing their top two edge rushers and Jaylen Walker and James Pierce. That's why I'm picking the Steelers to win at home. Pittsburgh has improved with the addition of Michael Pitman, who I expect to be a reliable piece for the offense. Also know that Touaka Voa injured his oblique and the status is up in the air this weekend. The New York Jets versus the Tennessee Titans. Two teams that many aren't really high on. Although the Jets offense has improved, if Gino Smith can be decent at worst, they may make some noise. Those offseason offensive weapons that they added are why I'm rolling with the Jets. Cam Ward and Cardinal Tate's connection. It might improve throughout the season, but unfortunately, it's just not there yet. To the late afternoon slate, the Arizona Cardinals versus the Los Angeles Chargers. Mike McDaniel will make this one of the better offenses in the league. Got to give some love to the Cardinals offense as well. Their offense looked great this preseason, and this could be a high-scoring game, but I'm going to pick the Chargers to win this week. Side note, Jeremiah Love seems healthy enough to play after spraining his ankle. The Miami Dolphins versus the Las Vegas Raiders. Everyone expects the Dolphins offense to be lackluster, but it's not even that. The Raiders spent so much money on their offense and their defense this off season with guys like Quinny Pay and Nico Dean. Their defense is why I'm taking the Raiders to win this one. They'll be without Brock Bowers, but it looks like Ashen Genty is in line to play. However, Mike Washington could see an increase in snaps. The Green Bay Packers and the new look Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is hoping for some sense of normaly at quarterback after acquiring Kyler Murray. Their favorites to beat the Packers, and I'm gonna have to agree with that. The stability in the offense is going to rejuvenate the crowd and homefield advantage is going to be a thing. While the Packers might struggle with a lack of an established run game, let's keep the division matchups rolling with the Commanders and the Eagles. In their own ways, last year seemed like a disappointment for both teams. The Eagles were the better squad, so I'm picking them this week. Washington may take a couple weeks to find their identity with new offensive coordinator David Blau. Sunday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys versus the New York Giants. It looks like Malik Neighbors will be playing this week, but due to the complication of the injury, it'll take a few weeks to get back up to full speed. The Giants may have a tough time keeping up with Dallas and their offense. So, I'm picking the Cowboys to win this week. And finally, Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. Both quarterbacks suffered season ending injuries, but both are fully recovered and will start. As good as Denver was last season, people have forgotten the dominance of the Chiefs the last few years. With it being in Kansas City, I'm picking the Chiefs to win. I do believe that both teams are going to split this season. So, I'm siding with the home team in this one that is itching to show that last year was just a fluke.