Mossad Chief and Syrian Foreign Minister meet in Jordan to 'defuse tensions'

All right, we are going to be turning now to Syria. Israel and Syria may be trying to pull back from the brink after tension spiked over an Israeli strike on a Syrian airbase. According to our sources, senior Israeli and Syrian officials met secretly in Jordan on Sunday, including Syria's Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaybani and Mossad chief Roman Goldman. Now, this is a meeting that reportedly focused on lowering tensions and preventing another escalation. Neither side is officially commenting, but the talks do suggest that behind the scenes both Israel and the new Syrian leadership may be looking for a way to keep this from spiraling. And joining us to break down what is actually happening behind the scenes, we have our security analyst Jonathan Regev with us. Jonathan, uh you know, obviously this is pretty big news hearing uh of course that there is contact now between Syrian leadership and Israeli leadership. What does it tell us about the state of affairs in this moment? >> I think it tells us that both sides, uh especially the Syrians here, uh want to see things settling down. Uh uh Syria is is of course in a problematic place because it is still a a weak country sitting in between Israel, which has its own interests on one hand, and Turkey, which has its own interests on the other. Uh so, I think Israel in this meeting is is trying to tell the Syrian Syrian regime, "We, Israel, are not against you, but there are certain red lines which we cannot accept, which would be the the the Turkish entrenchment into your into your area." For years, we've been speaking about the Iranian entrenchment in Syria. Now, we begin to speak of a Turkish entrenchment. And and Israel this time, uh through discussions, through negotiations, not through fire, is is trying to convey that message. Uh we've heard uh Prime Minister Netanyahu saying less than a week ago that Israel also conveyed the same message before the attack on that airbase near near Holland near Italy. It did not go through. Will it go through this time? We'll have to wait and see. I think that Syria would like to see both Israel and Turkey keep away as as much as possible, but of course these are two powerful nations which have their own interests. >> Right. I do want to talk about Syria's, you know, or the Syrian leadership's view towards Turkey right now, especially in comparison to Israel. You could say in many senses, you know, the Syrian government does not want to see the entrenchment of either of these powers. But is there perhaps a preferred partner? >> I would still think that the the Turks are their their preferred partner. Let's let's remember do not expect that the Syrian regime, the Syrian president, a former jihadist to join the Zionist movement anytime soon. It's not going to happen. Obviously there are there are much closer contacts and much much everything is much closer with Turkey than it is with Israel. Having said that, is Syria understands their their president understands President Assad understands that any Turkish involvement within Syria would bring Israel, as we've already seen exactly a week ago. Therefore, I think the Syrians would like to see everybody taking their hands away, but as we know in the Middle East there there's no such thing as a vacuum and if one power if one powerhouse is leaving, another one is is coming in. President Assad may have a lot of things that he wishes to see in Syria, but the reality dictates other things. And as as as as we've said about so many other issues, the answer to what what will really happen lies in Washington in the hands of President Trump who is trying to move things in Syria and have close relations with the president and at the same time is an ally both of Turkey and of Israel. >> All right, Jonathan. Thank you for joining us with that analysis. We're going to be turning now to Turkey. Israel and Turkey may be trying to keep a dangerous situation in Syria from boiling over on the other side of this. Israeli and Turkish officials have reportedly opened quiet back channel contacts. It's according to the Israeli news outlet Khan, which are allegedly aimed at preventing a direct confrontation as Ankara expands its military presence in Syria. Now, Israel says it does not want Turkey to become an enemy, but it also has drawn a clear red line. Turkish bases equipped with air defenses, drones or missiles that could challenge Israel's freedom of action are a big no-no. So, can these back channels keep the two regional powers from colliding? Well, joining us now is senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Soner Cagaptay. You know, first of all, how significant would you say it is that Israel and Turkey are talking through back channels right now, especially after that strike we saw from Israel on the Syrian base where Turkish diplomats or officials were believed to have visited? >> Good evening. Thanks for having me. Yeah, I think it's highly significant because obviously there is an interest to avoid direct armed conflict between the two states simply because, you know, in doing so, this would be catastrophic for both countries. Um but I think based on your analysis and your narrative prior to mine, I was watching, I think it's correct that the Israelis have established red lines. There was a deconfliction mechanism inside of Syria for the Turks. And the Turkish narrative seems to me, well, look, we are welcome here, so we're trying to essentially allow the Syrian military capability and its military capacity to be built up again. Um but many in Israel, as well as the wider Western Hemisphere, I think interpret that as an ability for Erdogan to use the Syrian military as a means to undermine and threaten the Israelis. Um the notion that Turkey is invited is accurate, whereas Israel is not. But that did not stop Turkey from entering Syria numerous occasions during its civil war without it being invited either. Um, we saw three major military incursions or invasions into Syria between 2016 and 2019. The Turkish military's occupation of Syria that existed today was never based on permission. So, let's just put that to one side, too. Um, but the the Turks have really been playing with fire. And now that they've realized that the Israelis aren't going to put up with it. And in which case, uh, I think their feathers have been rattled and they're now willing to talk to avoid further hostilities. >> Right. You know, Israel says that Turkish military entrenchment in Syria, of course, you know, air defenses, particularly and other advanced systems, is a red line, like you just mentioned. Ultimately, what exactly is Jerusalem worried that Turkey could build or do in Syria? Why is this the red line? >> I mean, that that that's a great question. Look, I would say that we should not look at this in isolation. What we should realize is Turkey's operating over 30 charities inside of Israel with direct ties to extremist Islamist entities that wish to carry out harm. Turkey's ongoing support of Hamas is no it is not in doubt. Turkey is the major base of operations for coordinating Hamas's activities both financially as well as terrorism planning inside of Israel. Um, Syria is a front line for Turkey to essentially amass conventional weapons and heavy weaponry into key critical bases which it wants to develop. With a means to further undermining Israel's security, uh, going forward as this geostrategic competition between the two countries, uh, Israel and Turkey escalate against the backdrop of continued Iranian decline in the region. >> Interesting. You know, looking ahead, can these back channels actually prevent a confrontation or do you think that Israel and Turkey are heading toward a difficult showdown over Syria? >> I hope so. I I I hope senior heads prevail. I hope the Erdogan government understands that the Israelis will not tolerate escalatory and threatening military build-up inside of Syria feigning sort of this notion of we're helping the Syrian military build capacity. The Israelis have been on essentially, you know, code red since October 7th, but we also have to understand Erdogan's disgust and and and vitriol toward Israel is not a new phenomenon. This has not been built up in the last 2 years. It's not been even in the last 5-10 years. Erdogan has been on a Messianic journey to essentially delegitimize and undermine Israel. I can trace back at least until since 2008. Every speech, every posture, every institutional measure to position Turkey against Israel he has not shied away from. And when the Israelis essentially demonstrate that they're not willing to put up with it by taking military action against the development of, you know, threatening military build-up in Syria, then Erdogan throws up his arms and says the Israelis have escalatory ambitions against us. They want to dominate the region. I think this narrative has to be challenged. I think you know, the Western Hemisphere, particularly Washington, should pay attention to the fact that Erdogan is the one who's escalating here and the Israelis are having to respond to it. >> All right. Well, I'd like to thank you so much for joining us, Dr. Jay D. Very interesting to hear your take on this. Our next story is very much related. A senior Trump envoy is contradicting the US president with his claims about Israel's position in the region. That's right. US Ambassador to Turkey and special presidential envoy for Syria and Iraq, Tom Barrack, says that Israel is occupying the Golan Heights, which goes directly against the US policy recognizing Israeli sovereignty there. And that's not all. In the same interview with the Lebanese Australian personality Mario Nawfal, he also says that Iran and Hezbollah would have to be part of any serious deal in Lebanon. And he suggests that Israel may have tried to provoke Turkey with its strike on a Syrian base. So, I think the question, of course, is what is actually behind these comments and how much weight should we put on them, especially given the influence that Tom Barrack has on American policy. To help us unpack this, we are joined by former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Danny Ayalon. Danny, let us start with the Golan Heights before we turn to the issue of Turkey. How significant would you say it is for a senior Trump envoy to say that Israel occupies the territory when US policy officially recognizes Israeli sovereignty there? >> Well, Natasha, it's very peculiar. It's very uncommon and unbecoming for any envoy who represents his government to go against his own government that he or she represents. So, this is totally ridiculous, outrageous, and I think reprimand is due from Washington, D.C. because he makes a mockery of the presidency of the very policy of the president of the United States, and he serves to his pleasure. >> That's right. Barrack also says that Iran and Hezbollah have to be part of any settlement in Lebanon. Do you think that that is realistic? And what does it tell you about the administration's approach to dealing with Hezbollah and Tehran? Obviously, you know, the acknowledgement that it essentially it seems like a US leader saying, "We're not going to be able to get rid of Iran in this scenario. >> Well, there's no lost love between the United States and Hezbollah. We have to remember Natasha, Hezbollah killed more American uh uh troops and soldiers since the uh early '80s. Uh in the hundreds of them and uh captured uh American officers and um Again, Hezbollah is an enemy. It's uh not only to Israel but also to the United States. It's considered as a uh on the terrorist of the United States. So, what Barak is saying is again very strange, I would say. And also, it is certainly against the United States interest that uh to expand the influence of Iran back to uh to Lebanon after it was really very much um curbed by uh Israel and also by the United States in the wars against uh uh Iran which are not over yet. And uh certainly, we do not want to see Iran back in Lebanon. And for Barak to says that is just uh shooting um the American policy um in its leg by by its own envoy. >> Which brings us, of course, to the issue of Turkey. He suggested that Israel may have been trying to bait Turkey into a confrontation with that strike that we saw uh you know, on a Syrian airbase that Israel believed uh Turkish uh officials were present at. How seriously should Israel take that accusation? And what does it say about the relationship between the United States, Israel, and Syria at this point? And of course, also Turkey. I mean, there are so many partners here and it seems to us uh you know, that Trump has been very much pushing for some type of peace deal between Israel and Syria. So, this type of commentary could perhaps undermine that. >> Well, Natasha, there as you mentioned, there are many moving parts. I think that the most important uh um let's say the element or axis is between Washington and Jerusalem. This is the basis for which we should continue and build our policies and conduct and also with close consultation with the United States. After all, we share common interests here, strategic interests, more so than the United States and Turkey for for instance, although there is a this I would say almost aberration of very intimate relationship between Erdogan and and Trump, which I cannot explain. But when it comes to the countries, Israel should be much closer to the United States, has always been much closer. When it comes to Syria, Syria right now is on the table. Unfortunately, Syria does not have its own gravitas to chart their future and destiny. And Turkey is right there trying to take over Syria, not only in terms of territory, and they have 10% of Syrian territory is occupied by by Turkey, the Iskenderun region. Not only that, there were excursions and forays of Turkish troops into Syria going after the Syrian Kurds and and others. So, and certainly Syria does not have this interest of being a puppet or a proxy of Turkey. Israel here is very adamant that Syria will be a neutral area. We do not want to see the Turks substitute the Iranians who had under Assad regime, who had Turkey under their control, and certainly we do not want to see in our northern border Turkish troops and uh we will make sure this does not happen and we are very capable to do it. I think diplomatic means are in order and I believe this can be resolved diplomatically because neither country nor Israel neither Turkey have any interest of clashing. >> All right Ambassador Danny Ayalon thank you so much for joining us for