Money Expert: This Wealth Setup Only Happens Once…And It JUST Happened Again! | Chris Camillo

I've been waiting for this trade for over a decade and there's eight figures between [music] the three. >> Eight figures? In one day I was up five and a half million. But how did you know when the rest of the market wasn't picking it up? I think investors are making some [music] of the most irrational, emotionally driven decisions that I've ever seen in my life. We're trying to like define the AI moment with what [music] we know. And that's the wrong way to look at it. What is going to be created over the next 20 years? What new industries will pop up? I can't even imagine. So how should the average person invest [music] in 2026? This is the last easy trade of the AI supercycle. Economies will change. Everything we know about business, about assets, all of that is going to radically change. And the moment is now to place your bets and be part of that or be left out of that. Chris Camillo, thank you for coming on the Ice Coffee Hour. Happy to be back. So what's interesting is that you were right about Amazon in our last podcast. It's since been up about 30 to 40%. You were right about Bloom Energy. You called it around $60. It hit $300. You doubled down on Robinhood at $38. I'm really curious how much money did you make from those trades? Um so they were probably three of the biggest trades in my life. And I mean I'll just I'll just It's eight figures between the three and it's been the best few months that I've had in 18 years. So it's been big, really big. >> Eight figures? Oh yeah, yeah, definitely eight figures um off the three trades. I think Amazon was an eight-figure trade alone. So I mean last time I was on I told you I was doing this, right? Like I've been waiting for this trade um for years. I've been waiting for this trade for over a decade and I always say having a prepared mind is one of the most important things an investor can do cuz it's usually during the years when there aren't any high conviction trades like that that you have to prepare yourself to make the move when one comes around. So, like I've been waiting for it. >> But how did you know when the rest of the market wasn't picking it up? Well, I like so I think the one thing that I'm really good at is independent thinking and not getting sucked into market noise and other people's opinions. So, when I develop a high conviction thesis like I did with Ballou, with Robinhood, especially with Amazon, I'll generally spend anywhere between 15 and 80 hours doing deep dive due diligence. So, my thesis is baked, I've seen the counter argument, um I know what the other side of that argument looks like and I obviously don't agree with people that are on the other side. And then when the market made their big move against Amazon, which was we don't believe that the 200 billion is a good idea, I thought that was patently wrong. So, I was like if that's the reason why they're going to take Amazon down is because they're spending 200 billion due to an opportunity that Amazon sees right in front of their face, I will take that the other side of that bet. And Amazon has a really long history of making prudent decisions when it comes to CapEx. Now, I think a lot of investors these days, I don't know if they don't remember 15 years ago or 20 years ago, right? Uh I don't quite understand what's happening with institutional and retail Wall Street. I I think investors are making some of the most irrational, emotionally driven decisions that I've ever seen in my life. And I think they're half baked and I love it as an investor because you really don't have an opportunity to make it big in the market unless there is another side of the trade where a significant portion of the market disagrees with you, and then you have to be right. So, a lot of people are probably asking, "Why are we bringing you back, back, back, back on?" Because I don't even know how many times it's been, but every single time we bring you on, you say something, it ends up coming true, usually in probably what we would all agree would be a shorter time period than we would have originally thought, right? You can't necessarily time the market, especially in the short term. But I made like I mean, I put in pennies relative to you, right? I made like 30 grand, and I was like, "Damn, like if I'm making $30,000, like Chris is probably raking it in." I'm just curious, what's the single biggest day you've had? I think in one day I was up 5 and 1/2 million. Uh over the past few months, and I don't know if it was Bloom Energy or Amazon or both, but that was I think my biggest up day. What do you do on a day like that? Do you go out to dinner? Do you celebrate? Or no? It doesn't impact me anymore. The ups and the downs no longer impact me emotionally. They just simply don't. Uh the big days up are like a nice little win, and the big days down, cuz I've had a few days where I've been down 3 million, and they don't really hurt. I I'm just completely immune to this, guys. I've been doing this since I was 13 years old. Um as I told you before, this is not about um making money for myself anymore. So, it it takes some of the pressure away. Like I'm building towards things that I think are noble and hopefully will be big for other people, my foundation, other things I want to do in life, but I'm not paying the bills with this money, so I don't let it impact me emotionally. What are you investing in now? So, um I'm probably more excited right now than I even was last time I was on the show, okay? So, I want you to think about the AI super cycle, which I have been preaching for what, 3 and 1/2 years? Like a broken record. Has three big waves to it. And I've been thinking about these three waves since day one. So, the first wave of the AI super cycle was like magic. AI could think, right? Like we had that wow moment. The second wave was who builds all of the chips and the infrastructure to make AI work. Well, the third wave that hasn't hit yet is less about the companies that are building the shovels and more about the companies that are using the shovels to leverage AI to do more with less. And this is the last easy trade of the AI super cycle. And it's a trade that I've been waiting for for 3 years. So, why is it easy? You don't need to like predict a future sci-fi world to get this trade right. All you need to be able to do is detect companies that have a very high cost structure that will benefit from the efficiencies that AI is going to bring to us over the next few years. So, companies that have a lot of customer service, that have a lot of admin, companies that have a lot of logistics, a lot of white-collar workers that maybe do repetitive task. These are the companies that are going to benefit most from what I'm calling the AI efficiency wave, which is the last big wave of the early AI super cycle. And I don't know when it starts. I think it starts pretty soon. I think it starts in the next year, but I could be off. It might not start for another 2 years. So then, in terms of your current portfolio, you ran a lot of these stocks up, right? Like Bloom Energy went up to 300. Now it's at like 250, 260. I'm curious, are you selling Bloom Energy like as it's going up? Are you reallocating funds now to these new companies that you think will benefit from replacing these higher cost, high repetitiveness, low creativity cost, you know, you could remove all of that and supplement it with cheaper AI solutions. Like what how are you moving your money around now? Yeah, so first of all, Bloom Energy is one of the biggest trades of my life. As you know, I doubled down and I told you guys when it hit 77 that day, right? And now it's at went up to 290 some something. I think it's like 260 today. >> [gasps] >> This is all over the course of a few months, right? At some point you have concentration risk. So, I did take some Bloom Energy off the table. It was painful because they were short-term gains. Now, my goal when I have a stock do what Bloom Energy did is to try to hold that stock for 12 months so I at least get long-term capital gains. You know, that saves me. I don't know, 12 or 13% tax hit. So, if I believe the stock will at least stay roughly the same, I prefer to hold it rather than sell it before it hits long-term capital gains. Now, with Bloom Energy, I have to have a source of funds, right? So, it's one of my biggest winners and I did decide to take some off the table. Um and I'm allocating even more to Amazon uh than I did before. I think that Amazon is the ultimate beneficiary of the AI efficiency wave because it wins with AI now four ways. So, Amazon obviously owns AWS, which is the infrastructure layer for artificial intelligence, one of the big four. It also owns Trainium, which is one one of the largest AI chip companies in the world now, and that actually makes AI compute cheaper for all of Amazon's customers and indirectly adds a level of stickiness to AWS. So, it really helps them there. But, with the AI efficiency wave, Amazon retail, which is all the products they sell, or is going to benefit massively due to Amazon's use of AI internally to bring efficiencies to logistics and to the entire shopping process. And fourth, most people don't understand this, but Amazon has now become the third largest digital advertising company in the world behind Google and Meta. And they'll be able to leverage this AI during this efficiency cycle to help target ads better, to enhance the creativity of advertising, and then also to personalize those ads, which I think is going to generate more revenue for Amazon, while also saving them and their customers money. So, with Amazon, it's not a single bet on AI. It's an entire company-wide efficiency flywheel that benefits Amazon more than any other company I've been able to identify in the world. So, I've still, to this date, I'm more excited about Amazon now than I was even a few months ago, because it's so obvious that this AI efficiency wave is going to hit them and hit them really hard in the near future. So, a lot of people are going to wonder then, is it too late to invest in Amazon? Because you were last talking about it, it was I think 197, and now it's 250 something, give or take, 260. Do you have a price target in terms of where you expect it to go? Or is it just as long as this continues, you think there's going to be opportunity? I I don't trade price, and I don't have price targets. Um I exit my positions when the market at large uh agrees with me. And the market at large definitely does not agree with me in its entirety as it relates to the way I think things will unfold with AI and specifically for Amazon. So, I still have a massive Amazon long position and I always tell people every day you're repurchasing every single stock in your portfolio every second of the day. So, by holding a stock that is exactly the same as choosing to repurchase that stock that day. So, yes, I repurchased my entire Amazon position today. So, it's no different than someone who's coming in for the first time, right? I'm basically making a conscious decision to rebuy my Amazon every day. So, I don't recommend what other people should do, but but that's what I'm doing for myself. But when you say you're really heavy into Amazon, what is really heavy mean? Like, are you taking out a levered position? Are you in margin? What does this look like? What percent of your portfolio is Amazon? If you if you were to look at what the options that I have in Amazon represent in Amazon stock, then Amazon would be roughly 70% of my portfolio. If you look at the options and and the stock that those options control, it's like 100 shares per contract. Yes, and Amazon has been roughly 70% of my portfolio now for months and months. So, that's like not a new thing. What are the top three companies you're bullish on besides Amazon? Look, real talk here, but if you've started to notice your hairline receding or more hair showing up in the shower than you'd like, that's not something you could just ignore and hope it goes away. The reality is hair loss is a lot more common than most people talk about, and the frustrating part is that the shelves are full of products that promise these results, and then they just don't deliver. And in the end, a lot of men unfortunately just end up giving up. Plus, a flight to Turkey can end up draining your bank account and leaving your hair looking worse than it did before. 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See website for full details, restrictions, and important safety information. Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and/or minoxidil and finasteride. What are the top three companies you're bullish on besides Amazon? I'm really all in on Amazon, uh, quite honestly. I do still have numerous bets across that that second wave of AI, which is the infrastructure layer, which is inclusive of energy companies like Bloom Energy, chip companies, data center companies, as well as some companies that are involved with, um, rare earths because this is all like part of the picture here. Um, I would say once you kind of move beyond a company like Amazon, which is a really concentrated position, the other companies in my portfolio generally tend to be more diversified. Now, uh, Robinhood would be the one exception to that. Robinhood is still a top three position for me, and it's a position that I've added to since it kind of fell back into the 70s, and I could see myself adding even more to Robinhood over the course of the next few months. What do you think is going on with Robinhood stock because I've gone in like heavy into a few companies. Every single one of them has been right just the wrong time. And Robin Hood is another one of those companies where like I went in super super heavy on around a hundred hundred and ten ish which obviously was a little bit rich but it's came down and now I'm thinking like if I bought it at 110 why am I not stockpiling at like 75? And I feel like I should be buying more of it and I'm curious like what is what what do you think has happened with Robin Hood? Why has it gone down? >> knows you bought and because of that it just is a bear signal that everyone's like Jack bought the stock. There's no other way to say it. >> if I short it then? You know what's so funny? Jack bought this bond fund that I'm invested in and it was the same one. And my bond fund had done really well and then Jack bought in his bond fund and treasury yields spiked like as soon as Jack bought in and now that bond fund is down. I've been up for like a year. >> you like three and a half percent or whatever and not change the price but the price actually changed of this. >> Yield spiked as soon as he bought. Tell me that's not just that it has to be more than just a coincidence. When you make an investment you should have a thesis that you have relatively high conviction in. So when the stock goes down as long as the information doesn't change, as long as there's not new data that changes your thesis, you should be you should have a higher conviction now at the current price rather than a lower conviction. I think the big mistake that most retail investors fall into is we always think that someone else knows more than us. We think that if we make an investment and the stock starts to move the other way, well, I must be wrong. Well, again, you shouldn't have made that investment unless you have a really strong thesis that you think is being under appreciated by the rest of the market. And if the market continues to under appreciate that, you should get excited. So like when Amazon fell, I got really excited. You remember when Bloom Energy fell, I was actually excited that day when I messaged the group. I said, "Guys, I'm doubling down because I know why Bloom Energy dropped. It was a thesis that someone had on Oracle and I know that that thesis is wrong." So, once I realized why people were selling Bloom, I got really excited to buy more Bloom because I knew the reason why they were selling Bloom was wrong, at least according to my thesis. So, I think investors are just way too willy-nilly these days trading in and out of stocks because they saw someone else did it and they don't develop their own thesis, their own conviction. And that's just really important. So, like I have a huge position Amazon and I actually want the stock to fall. Um because I'm so confident in the timeline I have for Amazon over the next year or two, I would actually be happy to lose a lot of money in the short run so that I can go even deeper and more levered into Amazon at a lower price. So, how much we we use the term dry powder do you have? Because if the stock price falls, you're going to want to buy more, but then how much cash do you have sitting on the sidelines if you're already taking out levered position, taking on margin? Yeah, so my my leverage currently sits uh not counting for stock options, just how much I'm borrowing on margin, my leverage is actually at like 40% borrowing, which is really low for me right now today. Um as you guys know, I will often drive that leverage up to 80 or 90% and at times 100% and I I have There have been times I've been margin called every day because of that, right? And I have to keep a close eye on it because I'm borrowing tens of millions of dollars in margin, like fully margined account when I have a high conviction thesis. So, I feel really comfortable that I'm only 40% margin because if the market falls because of Iran or some some person has a some, you know, knock on Amazon and Amazon falls, assuming that I think that information's bad, yeah, right? Uh I would love that cuz I would just go deeper into Amazon. I would borrow more money on on margin to do that. >> Why not just have Jack buy more Amazon stock and drive the price down? Well, that that that's an option as well. And by the way, even when I'm capped out on margin, and I don't I want to be very clear. >> [laughter] >> I'm a lunatic, okay? Like like nobody should mimic what I do unless it's inside of like a designated high-risk, high-reward, what I call a big money account with money that they can afford to lose entirely. But even when I'm capped out on margin, I do have one last option, which is, you know, if I start to lose that money and I'm getting margin called and I want to go in even deeper, I just start to sell the equity and I go all in on highly leveraged options. So, there's always like another layer of risk that I could tap into. Fortunately, I've never gotten so down that road and have been wrong so many times to where I tapped out that last layer of risk and I've gone broke. And I think I'm at a point in my life where I would never will never allow that to really happen at this point. Listen, guys, I like I don't make these decisions like quickly. Like as I said, like I spend dozens of hours, sometimes upwards of a hundred hours of research before I make these decisions on a single trade. What about Sweetgreen? So, you obviously saw my tweets today. Uh I missed a big trade that really pissed me off uh last month. >> [gasps] >> Um and this is a social arb trade that I pride myself on never missing, but there has been a big trend the last year uh towards uh health and health influencers and if you have anything that's healthy, it gets amplified by the world of health influencers on TikTok. So, there's been a movement towards healthy hydration. And what is the per- highest perceived healthy hydration that one can get? Coconut water, right? I was so consumed by all my AI trades the last few months that I wasn't paying attention to the fact that coconut water started to trend heavily on TikTok because coconut water's been around forever. So, I wasn't really tracking it. But, it did start to trend really hard with influencers. And the company, uh, I think it's Vita Coco, uh, had the biggest earnings they've ever had and popped like, I don't know, 35 or 40% on earnings day. And all of the data was right there for you to see. If you would have simply searched the word coconut water on Google Trends or Vita Coco, uh, or any of those keywords, you would have seen a hockey stick up the last three or four months. So, it's like it This is not hidden alpha. This is alpha that all you have to do is to be prudent and not lazy to to look for it and it's right there in front of you. I missed that trade and since then I've been really aggressive looking for social arb trades outside of like technology and AI where I've been so consumed for the last couple of years. Well, >> [sighs and gasps] >> one of the companies that I found and I always look for companies that are releasing new products or, in this case, a new menu item, right? >> [gasps] >> When a company releases a new item, uh, sometimes it has potential to radically change the entire perception of that company. Sweetgreen is a company that has been doing terrible the last couple of years. They've had a lot of issues with their menu being stale and the stock is down like 80 80 or 85%. So when I saw that they were coming out with wraps, I got really excited. Why? As you guys know, I own restaurants and something happened this last year where we started selling a chicken Caesar wrap at one of my restaurants. It's been around for 12 years. This has not only become the number one selling menu item in my restaurant Chelsea Corner in Dallas. It is the number one selling product that we've had in 12 years. So when I saw that Sweetgreen was going to start selling a chicken Caesar wrap one, I realized for the first time their menu was about to become portable. Two, I knew that it was already huge momentum around the chicken Caesar wrap trend. It's been going on now for a couple of years. Sometimes it's better when a company chooses not to try to invent a trend because that's really risky, but just ride to a trend that's already exist. So Sweetgreen came out with this four different wraps, okay, flavors of basically chicken Caesar wrap. And they had a massive influencer campaign. And today it's driving like a lot of controversy, which is actually really good. Some people are saying that the wraps they're getting are a little smaller than the ones that they're seeing in the influencer TikToks, but most people are saying they love it. And I've been interviewing uh Sweetgreen wraps at Sweetgreen stores and universally they're telling me that just within the last 10 days it's already 20% of their sales is this wrap. So it's still early on in the hype cycle in terms of content creators talking about this. Uh but there were some big ones that came out this weekend and I think we're in the early stages of potentially a game-changing moment for this dead company, Sweetgreen. So, if they even experience moderate success with these wraps, that could be a game-changer. Also, the company has a 23% short interest. So, this is a really exciting trade for me. I have a massive long position, leveraged, in Sweetgreen. It's still speculative because we're we're going to have to see how the next few weeks plays out. But, based on what I've seen so far in the first 10-ish days of this product launch, it's showing all the signs of a viral product that could be a game-changer for the company. Can you move the market? Because I saw Sweetgreen was up 7% today, which coincides with you tweeting about it. Yes, I did move the market today. And so, I think it's really >> [sighs] >> um from an ethical and moral standpoint, and I pride myself on this, I will never sell into a move that I created. So, I have a large position in Sweetgreen now. Uh I think the SEC requires you to hold it for 3 days after you kind of do something that could move the market. I will hold this position likely for many weeks to see it play out. Um so, I'm not selling into that move that happened today when I tweeted about Sweetgreen and the wraps. I'm actually pretty excited about this trade, and I feel that it's real and could turn into something special, but we'll have to see how it plays out. >> So, how much volume do you think got pushed to Sweetgreen because of your tweet? I think it were over double the volume today. The last time I checked, and that was before the market closed. So, at least double the volume. >> don't think it would take that much to move Sweetgreen. Cuz I think they're a billion-dollar market cap, but there there can't be that much volume every day in Sweetgreen. There's not that much volume. And, you know, over the last couple years, unless I'm talking about Amazon, who knows? I mean, I do have a few billionaires I know that kind of follow the show. I have I have a lot of big funds. Like I have funds that I know manage 40 billion that follow the show. I have another fund that's 25 billion that follows the show. So like, you know, we could theoretically but those guys don't move that quickly, right? They don't see a show and just buy something. >> Imagine a fund manager like, "Yo, guess what Chris Camillo just said? We're going all in." >> I have because because a ticker tags I spent 5 years on Wall Street kind of helping a lot of hedge funds understand conversational data sets. There are a lot of pods throughout funds that follow me, but they don't manage more than like 20 or 30 million each. We have started to move markets and I I like I said, I take that really seriously. Um I will never sell into a move that I created. Like that that is just something that I will never ever do. Like I First of all, it's illegal, but beyond it being illegal, it's not something I would ever do to other investors. Let's just say you did. How much money do you think you could make? An incredible amount of money, hundreds of millions if I did if I chose to do that. But then my reputation be ruined for life, people would hate me. Uh it it's even if I didn't have any sense of moral value, like I I that would be a horrible way to live. Terrible thing to do. I don't I can't imagine anything worse to do in the white collar world than to literally you're basically just skimming money. You're stealing money. >> You're stealing money. You're stealing money. >> say that he should. I'm I'm just it's a it's a joking question. >> listen, it happens every day. There are a lot of people that are finance creators. That that is their entire strategy. I see it. It disgusts me. It disgusts me that they're allowed to do it and not being aggressively pursued by authorities. Like I hate it and you know, I it's I'm the opposite of that. What What thoughts on SanDisk? Um, listen, I'm I'm long all the memory companies, right? So, I bought the South Korean index. So, like I'm technically, I think, invested in every single memory chip company. Uh, do you remember the last random company I talked about on your show? Um Yeah, yeah. >> Mhm. I mean, you know, that company's doubled since the show? Uh, and I think it was like the one of the first American investors to invest. I had to have Schwab add the ticker. Uh, you know, they scan uh, with 3D imagery a lot of these memory chips before they hit the hyperscaler racks. So, anything across the uh, infrastructure chain from artificial intelligence, I'm invested in in one way or another. So, even though I'm most excited about this AI efficiency wave that I think will hit in the next one to two years, and I think the market, once it realizes that that's going to hit, they will front-run it. So, it could happen any week, any month now. That doesn't mean that the second wave of the super cycle, which was infrastructure, won't continue to benefit and rally. So, I'm just invested, quite honestly, across all of artificial intelligence. This is the trade of my life. I think it's a the I think it's a trade of everyone's life. And that's why I've been so outspoken about it through every FOMO like every blip of like trying to scare us out of the AI trade, I'm doing everything I could to kind of educate people on the fact that you might only get one or two of these in your entire life. So, not to necessarily mirror my trades, but spend the time to do your own homework. If there was one time in your life to cancel other things and research and study and make big decisions, it's now. Because I don't know what happens after this. We might be in a prolonged period of time when it's very difficult to find alpha in the market after this big super cycle ends. And so like now's not the time to just be laissez-faire. Like now's the time to dig in deep and make our bets. So how should the average person invest in 2026? 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A co-host can manage the reservations, communicate with guests, and handle the on-site logistics so everything runs smoothly while you're traveling. If you have upcoming travel, you probably don't think twice about your home sitting empty, but you could bring in some extra cash while you're away. I kid you not, a couple years ago before I had all of the rooms in my house filled up with roommates, I actually listed a room on Airbnb and the entire process was genuinely so easy. The extra cash was amazing and I was genuinely just so surprised at the simplicity of the entire process. If you're trying to make some extra cash on the side, I couldn't recommend Airbnb more. If you're ready to host but need a little bit of help, find a co-host at airbnb.com/host. So how should the average person invest in 2026? I think we all have to come to terms uh with the fact that enterprise is going to continue to get bigger. We're going to redefine economies. Uh I think the most exciting thing about this next wave of the AI supercycle is that it's likely to be broad-based, meaning that I think unlike the last wave of the cycle where we had 15 or 20 companies that kind of benefited most and sucked up all of the energy from the stock market, so many companies will benefit from the AI efficiency wave. But part of the reason why they're benefiting is because they're lowering their cost. And a lot of workers are going to get laid off as part of the cycle and are going to have hard times. So, one of the ways to defray your risk against that is to be invested in the companies that are benefiting from that those efficiencies of not of having to have less labor, right? They become more efficient, their margins go up, they grow faster. In return, the market I think is likely to reprice multiples market-wide higher, meaning that we can see the entire market lift as a result of this if all the companies left in the market become more efficient. That's exactly what happened during the dot-com cycle, right? If you go back to the 1980s and 1990s, the average market PE was like single digits and then it was like low teens, then high teens, and then it grows into the 20s. Well, it's not because the market's becoming overvalued necessarily, it's because the companies that comprise the market are now better. Those companies are growing faster. They're tech companies. They have 85% software margins. So, the dynamics of what the stock market is is fundamentally changing over the course of time. And if you look at what AI has the potential to do, it's another full step up. So, I think there's never been a time in our life where it's more critical to be invested. Just to be invested. The degree that you want to take on active investment, that's a personal decision. But, it's insane not to be invested in the market. Like, my entire passion life is to have every human in the world part of the investor class for this exact reason. Because if you're not part of it, you're going to get left out. And it's a really scary thing. So, in terms of investing in the market, most people watching this, most people following the channel are very safe investors. They want to invest in like the total stock market, maybe some bonds, some treasuries, some it's a well-diversified portfolio. You will come on here and say people needed be invested in risk assets. What percent, generally speaking, and how do you know what qualifies as a risk asset and what technically does not? >> when you talk about like a risk portfolio or like a higher risk, higher return bucket of money that you have, either inside of your account or preferably separated into a separate account, I think it's money that you're not afraid to lose. I think a risk asset means more concentration. So, rather than being totally diversified, maybe you're making more concentrated bets. Maybe you're making bets in companies that have a higher risk-reward profile. So, you know, maybe when OpenAI gets on the stock market or Anthropic, will these be the next $20 companies? Maybe, or will they go away? We don't really know, right? Um and it might not make sense to invest from your normal portfolio into a company like that. But, if you have a bucket of money that's designated to be higher risk, higher reward, then you then you're willing to take those bets. So, concentration, using leverage, investing in, you know, higher beta companies, meaning companies that fluctuate more, right? They have higher upside but higher downside. Those would be risk assets. And you have to think about that money differently, otherwise you'll be afraid to invest and when you do invest and things start to go wrong, you'll make bad decisions. You'll pull your money out out of fear, which is always the wrong thing to do. When is the last time you've been wrong? 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Thank you so much. Now, let's get back to the episode. When is the last time you've been wrong? >> You know, I I I don't remember. Like, I I I make bad trades here and there. Uh sometimes I decide to press an existing trade, and then the market comes out and does something or says something about the company I'm invested in, whether it was Bloom or Amazon, that temporarily loses me a lot of money. So, there was a scary moment in the last year uh when I my portfolio was down 70%, I think, close to 70% total portfolio. Meaning, like, my total portfolio was down 70%, which was wild. Um and yet I disagreed with the reason it was down. I think it was shortly after one of our shows um when maybe during the tariff, right before the tariff stuff. And so, I vehemently disagreed with other investors that were taking the market down. And it was really difficult for me when my portfolio was down that much to press yet again, which is which is what I did. Fortunately, as we know, it worked out, right? Um you know, but from that moment, my account 10x'd. So, you know, when my account was down 70%, I I don't want to give out exact numbers, but I know the number in my head, my account is 10x'd since that show of yours, which is which is pretty wild. That was a low moment. And now I'm at a high place and pressing again. So, we'll see we'll see what happens. But again, the thing that gives me anxiety is is missing out on this mega wave that I think is about to hit because I don't know what comes after that, guys. Like I don't know if I'm going to get another opportunity to press this hard into something that I have so much conviction in. Like if I'm is on triples or doubles from here as part of the AI efficiency wave, like what's next? What's the next big driver for the market? I don't know. Maybe there will be something. But I'm telling you guys, these super cycles just don't hit that often. They don't happen every few years. They happen like every 10 to 15 years, maybe 20 years. Now, when it comes to valuations, though, I'm curious because we got a lot of bears in the market as well. We have Michael Burry who said the stock market is minutes away from a bloody crash. Stocks are still hitting record highs. We have a K-shaped economy. And people are comparing this to the 1999 dot-com bubble that we're in that final run-up phase before everything collapses. What is your argument against that? And why could they be right? Okay, so they're basically saying that the market is overvalued. I'm saying that the market is uneven. I'm saying, you know, they have a big issue, I think, with the fact that 15 or 20 stocks are carrying the entire market. I look at it differently. Maybe 15 or 20 stocks are the only companies that have earned the right to carry the market. Interest rates were basically nothing in 2021. Money was free. That created a really bad environment. When money was free, everybody won, right? Bad stocks, good stocks. If you were a company, you can borrow money for free, and even if you didn't generate outsize returns, you were winning with leverage. So, that was a really dangerous time. Now, interest rates are higher, which again, these guys think is a bad thing. I actually think it could be a really good thing that interest rates are higher and the borrowing cost is higher. Because when you have higher a higher rate environment, what it does is it punishes bad companies and it rewards great companies. So, let's say you have two companies, company A and B, and they're both generating 10% on their money through whatever it is that they sell. Interest rates are 4% for them to borrow money, right? Now, let's say that the cost of capital jumps from 4% to 8%, which for a lot of companies it has. >> [gasps and sighs] >> For company A, that's really bad because now instead of making a 6% margin on their money, right? They're borrowing at four, but they're generating 10% returns, they're only generating 2%. So, they're generating a third of what they were before. That's terrible. And that's how these guys look at the market, but how I look at the market is if we have something as big as this AI super cycle, and some companies are figuring out a way to increase their return on capital from 10% to let's say 20%, which has definitely happened for a lot of companies, then the company that is borrowing money now at 8%, but now generating a return on capital at 20, actually doubled what they're getting in the market. Because now they're generating 12% net. So, even though interest rates and the cost of borrowing has increased, because of the AI super cycle, they are now still benefiting. So, what this does is it really punishes the companies that are not able to grow quickly because of this new AI cycle that we're in and not able to expand their margins. And I love that because as long as you're willing to pick the winners, it's a winner-take-all market for now. But again, once the efficiency cycle starts to hit, meaning all of the companies, or maybe not all, but more than 20, will start to see the benefit of AI as they're able to operate more efficiently. So, even if they're not necessarily growing that fast, even if their growth rate is slow, they'll be able to generate meaningfully more profits. I think we'll see a broadening of the beneficiaries in the market from AI. And that could be the next leg up. That's my thesis at least. And we'll see who's right. It It might take a couple years for that to play out, but I will say this, in the interim, if the market drops, it doesn't necessarily mean that they were right. If the market pops back up, right? Because we We've seen the market drop now, what? Five times over the past 2 years, pretty significantly in terms of the quickness of the drop, due to one fear or another that ultimately resolved themselves and turned out to not be correct. And how could you then be wrong with your predictions? Like what is the strongest argument against what you just said? Yeah, so I think I think the thing that worries me the most is this gap between the AI efficiency wave when every company starts to lay off employees to operate more efficiently and the time when they realize that now they can start to grow again by expanding their company or when other people step into the market and create new companies and new industries and then employment gets redirected in newer, better, higher-paying, more creative jobs. I can't fully assess how large that window is going to be, that gap. And if the layoffs come in too big and too quickly, and CEOs and entrepreneurs and the government doesn't come in to kind of patch that gap or redirect uh employees to new industries and new companies and expansion, that could create a pretty meaningful recession that would hurt the market at large. That's the number one thing that would keep me up at night as an investor that's heavily levered long in the market. What about Treasury yields though, going up to the highest level since 2007? I think the 20-year or 10-year was as high as like 1998. I like it. I for this reason I already gave. I like it because it punishes losers and rewards winners. >> But what do you say for the investors that start to question, wait a second, if I could get theoretically, let's just say 6 and 1/2% on a 30-year Treasury, maybe I take some profits from the stock markets and put it in a Treasury instead. Like there becomes a point where it just disincentivizes investment in companies. Why would you take the risk because I've seen some where it says the risk-reward of the S&P 500 is now negative when you account for Treasuries paying 5 and 1/2%. Kramer, everything that you're saying is historically true. Um but what we're going through right now is not we've never seen it before, right? This sort of growth. So, yeah, that would be a real issue if we were just going to hop along and grow at normal rates and the market was going to be the market. But we have something that's about to hit and redefine what every economy on Earth looks like. We are about to see efficiencies that we have never seen in the history of mankind. Uh we are about to see every company on Earth become meaningfully more productive than they thought was humanly possible 5 years ago. I think that people are looking at this the wrong way and that AI is the is is like the main character in this story and interest rates are just like a sideshow character, right? And and and we're paying attention to the wrong thing. So, in a normal environment, you're correct. Historically, you're correct. Interest rates go up, you can you can generate more from your money in a safe environment, why would you want to take the risk to get an extra point or two? But I don't think you're taking the risk to get an extra point or two. I think you're taking that extra risk to be part of what is the most interesting, high-growth, efficient capital market that we've ever seen in our lifetime. And I think that's going to last for at least a few more years. I don't know where it goes after that. So, this is just not a normal environment, and I'm not treating this like the '90s or the 2000s or the 2010s. I'm treating this like something special because in my mind, that's where we are right now with artificial intelligence. How do you think Kevin Warsh is going to approach that situation? I don't really care because like he's not a king. Uh there are 12 board members that get the vote. He cannot do anything that is meaningful enough to scare me. Because ultimately, I don't care about a quarter of a point here, a half a point there when I'm looking at companies that are going to double their productivity, triple their productivity. Again, I think people have lost the narrative. I don't care about a quarter point. I care about a warehouse that for the first time in 60 years is going to operate 15% more efficiently. Because what that is going to do to that warehouse's bottom line is meaningfully more important than what a quarter or half point interest rate move is going to do. And again, I understand why people are so concerned about the Fed because it's all we cared about the last eight or nine years. But that's when the Fed was the story. Right? Yeah, when when you could lower interest rates and have every company on Earth just borrow free money. I get it. But that's not where we are now, guys. Like Dude, what's happening and it changes every week. I mean, you saw what um what the Citadel CEO, Ken Griffin, in not so many words, he realized that AI is basically now able to do everything that his company does, which is insane, by the way. He manages one of the most sophisticated financial institutions on Earth. And he's saying that AI, it's not just that it can do it, but it can do it in a fraction of the time better than his employees can do it. And he's shook because he's finally realizing what's about to happen. He's seen a lot. What blew my mind is that he wasn't shook 12 months ago when I was shook by this. Like, how is And this is what's so fascinating about this market. It's so inefficient. You know, I was on a plane ride here. They're having the commercial real estate annual convention in Vegas. And the entire plane was full with CRE bros. But they're older guys though, right? They're in their 50s, 60s. I'm looking around going, these guys control so [snorts] much wealth. The collective amount of companies that they control is insane and I bet outside of maybe using chat GPT here and there, they don't even have a clue what AI can do for their company. And it's like we we're still not seeing it yet. As a market, we're not seeing it. If Ken Griffin could come out and make a statement that he should have made a year ago if he was just properly paying attention, then like how about everyone that's underneath Ken Griffin? Again, guys, he he manages the most sophisticated, biggest fund in the world. And he's just realizing this like this month. >> But doesn't that also mean that the average person sitting in their living room could have the same capabilities as Ken Griffin? Yes. That's what's a game changer. And so like everyone's so concerned about the massive job loss that might or might not be coming. I'm concerned as well, but no one is equally hyped about the unlock of millions and millions of idea people around the world who for the first time in human history can execute their idea for pennies on the dollar. So anything that lives in your mind, any industry, any company, any solution to any problem on Earth. >> [gasps] >> We have lots of people that have ideas of how to solve problems. Historically, there's been so much friction to actually create a real, viable solution and deploy that solution into the real world from that idea that was in your head. And for the first time in history now, we're removing essentially all of the friction. What is going to be created over the next 20 years? What new industries will pop up? I can't even imagine. We're trying to like define the AI moment with what we know. And that's the wrong way to look at it. Because truthfully, we're going to look back at 20 years and think we were dinosaurs in 2026. Economies will change. Everything we know about business, about enterprise, about valuations, about assets, about growth rates, all of that is going to radically change. And the moment is now to place your bets and be part of that or be left out of that. And we're yet we're concerned about a quarter rate interest rate hike. Like like it I love it that you guys and everyone else is concerned about that because that's a tension that you're not putting towards figuring out what companies will benefit most once a sufficient efficiency wave hits in about a year. Because that's where I'm focused. And I like that other investors are not focused there because they are going to hit that game late. I'm hitting that game now. So, what opportunities do you think are available then for the average person outside of investing with the new efficiency wave, with a lot of layoffs potentially happening with these companies being able to operate at lower costs? What kind of opportunities should the average person be taking advantage of? And really quick, when Jack and I first started the Ice Coffee Hour, we were winging it. We had no idea what we were doing. Every day was a brand new challenge. That's why if you're starting or growing your own business, you know how valuable today's sponsor is because you get it. And that would be Shopify. If you've spent any time on the internet, chances are you already know what Shopify is. But in case you don't, Shopify is essentially an all-in-one business platform. They support millions of businesses worldwide from major brands like Mattel and Gymshark to entrepreneurs who are just getting started. And here's something that's crazy. You've probably actually already used Shopify, but maybe had no idea because if you've shopped online in the US, there's a really good chance it was on a Shopify store because they power about 10% of all e-commerce in America. 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And they're just starting I think over the next 12 months, they're going to come to terms with the fact that they can't avoid it anymore and they need to embrace it. If I was just a regular person, I would spend 6 months becoming a top 1% person in AI just just by self-learning. then I would go to where wealthy business owners hang out. I don't care if you're going to conferences like this one in Vegas right now and go to the hotel bar. And literally just start walking up to old guys that are likely business owners or C-level execs, introduce yourself and say, "I am so-and-so. I just spent 6 months becoming hyper-proficient at being able to utilize bleeding-edge AI tools to solve problems with AI. And over the next 3 years, your business is going to have so many issues, and I'll be able to solve those issues for you for pennies on the dollar. I don't know how many people you have in your company that are hyper-proficient right now in the AI world, but I am. Can we talk?" And I would have that conversation over and over until one of those guys goes, "I don't even know what I'm going to use you for, but we are hiring you next week." It's so funny because every single person that we ask this question says the exact same thing. It's not just you, it's Grant Cardone. Yeah, we had Grant Cardone and that went Did you see that tweet on X? Got over a million views of him saying, "If you want to make a million dollars a year, all you have to do is find 10 people that will pay you $8,000 a month to implement AI in their business. That's a million dollars a year." But but guys, I said the same thing on your show and got 4 million views in 2 days on X or the same statement. I said you you make >> That's maybe where Grant got it from. That's He stole it from me. I think he stole it from me because Yeah, because because what what I said was that you can make half a million dollars a year, okay? Uh basically doing exactly that. Just I said you go into a company and you say, "Give me one problem that you have." And the problem could be as simple as we're missing phone calls every night. And because we're missing those phone calls cuz we close at 5:00 or 6:00, they call one of our competitors. Create an AI widget to answer those calls, figure out what the issue is, immediately send responses out, inform the entire company, so the next morning you already have a lead sheet, you're already engaging with that customer, and you never lose that customer. You could potentially increase a company's revenue by 10 or 15%. Small businesses, HVAC companies, plumbing companies, doesn't matter what it is. You can just go company to company and say I'm going to fix simple problems like that for you, put them on a monthly retainer, and make half a million dollars a year just having 10 clients. Just having That's it. That thing went viral next cuz no one believed me. And everyone All the haters came out and said it's not that easy to create AI widgets. You This is a genetic AI. It's not that easy. You're lying to people. And it's You're You're And that's why it went viral. Give me an example of what you're talking about. >> I was in Hawaii uh doing this film shoot for the Alpha School, which is an AI school in Austin, with this guy Bill Perkins. Bill's crazy. He's >> I love Bill. Do you know Bill? >> Yeah, we had him on the podcast. >> No, I Okay. That guy is crazy. He is an energy trader, but he's kind of like a nerd, too, and he We're sitting on the edge of a cliff watching surfers after the shoot. And he's telling me he has these 12 AI agents that can do anything from his cell phone. And he's really proud of the fact that he created this system to basically uh look at any website or piece of writing in the world and synthesize it to be much better, to show you where you're miscommunicating, you're doing things the wrong way. He's like, "Give me the worst website that you know of." And I gave him a friend's website. He's like, he put it through his filter. He's like, "This website rates an F. Do you want me to show you what the website should look like, what it should say, how it should be structured. I said, "Sure." He put it through. He's like And I was like, "Wow, that is an insanely good website." And everything that he told me made absolute sense. The website actually is more functional now. It communicates more proficiently. He's like, "Do you want me to build you that website in the next 45 minutes using my agents?" It's like, "That's not possible." It was It was built on like uh Wick or Wiz What What's that like website company? >> He goes, "Get me a login. Just get me the login. 45 minutes, I'll have the entire website reconstructed." I got him the login. He starts speaking to his agents on his home computer back in you know, Austin, which is where he lives now. And he's just like, "Hey, I need you to rebuild this website to look like this now." And it wouldn't do it at first. It was like, "Well, I'm not going to hack into that person's website. That's That's immoral." He's like, "It's not immoral. I'm here with his friend right now. He just got like, you know," He has a little argument. That's That's the issue with where we are in the AI world right now. But he eventually convinced it to do it. 45 minutes later later, it read the entire manual for how to code in that website's coding for that that company. Wix It's called Wix, right? Wix. >> Um and it reconstruct the web website entirely from the ground up. And it works perfectly. So, in less than an hour, he took a terrible website, essentially redesigned it both in terms of its architecture and its communication layers, and then rebuilt it from scratch to be a fully working site in under 60 minutes from a mobile phone sitting on the edge of a cliff watching surfers speaking to his agentic agents on his home computer in Texas. Did he set that up himself or did he hire someone else to do it for him? >> me he set it up himself. >> Wow. And I kind of believe him because he was really sharp when it came to this stuff. But listen, he's just one guy, right? And he's like doing a lot of different things. He's not even He's not a developer, guys. He's just a regular guy. And so like anytime says someone says, "You're lying. You can't do that. It's not that easy." Well, you can go through your life skeptical, or you can figure out how to do it. And let me tell you something, we are about to like diverge into two sets of people. Those that are continuing to believe that this isn't real, or it's too hard, or it's not as good as people say it is, and those that are going to find a way. Those that are going to find a way to create businesses. Those that are going to find a way to do something special with AI in their career, to start a company, or as an investor once I realize it we might never get this opportunity ever again. Why do you think podcasting has a lot of legs? Because I feel like people would automatically think that you're going to have AI hosts, the information that you want is going to be easier to access on an LLM, or you know, ChatGPT, or whatever, as opposed to listening through a 3-hour podcast where maybe they talk about something you don't want to hear about, where you can dictate the conversation with an LLM. Why are you so bullish on podcasting? And you're investing a lot of money into podcasts as well. Well, I've invested the next 5 years of my life into this new project that's basically trying to incubate um the next great podcasters, right? Um and the reason why I'm doing it is I think the world's We we will have both, right? I think if you look at history, anytime we've had a jump in technology or innovation, the world has embraced it. At the same time, the world starts to really value what was left behind. >> [gasps] >> And I do think people will embrace AI, they will embrace technology. I think we will have digital relationships with AI. It will be a really big deal, whether we like it or not. >> Um, but I also think that being a differentiated human, a human that is actually able to differentiate themselves from this new AI world, uh, is going to be more valuable than ever before. Because we're going to want both. Okay? We're going to thirst for that true human connection in an AI world. Because we will be forced to use AI for numerous reasons, for almost everything that we do. Uh, but when it comes to real humans and that sense of connection and humanity, for the humans that are able to kind of break out of the matrix and to have a degree of creativity, to have a voice that is so bold and so unfiltered and so raw, that will become so special in an AI world. >> Who's to say AI just can't do that and be a little imperfect, be a little abrasive, stutter a little bit, misspeak? I think I think maybe AI will do that. But I think at least for a while, we will so appreciate that authenticity of human connection because we can only embrace so much change at a time as humans. Like our brains. Think about it, guys. Like have you not like look at where we are in terms of anxiety right now, depression? We're all on our phones all the time and we hate it, but we can't stop it, but we hate it. So we try to put our phones down. You see all these establishments now going no phone. So there's clubs and bars and all these places where you have to give your phone in. There's a place called Powder Room in Austin. I just went there a few weeks ago with a friend and you have to turn your phone in before you go there. It's amazing. Everyone has like heads up, looking at each other, talking to each other, connecting. Um I have absolute confidence that the value of differentiated humans and that human voice will go up over the next decade, not down. And so for me, like I live in an AI world. I study AI all the time. I thirst though for that human connection myself, right? And I do think there's huge opportunity for humans right now to be able to like create that brand, to create that narrative and to really develop themselves as humans outside of kind of the AI matrix that we're about to get caught up in. The hard part though is differentiating because if it's getting better and better and better, I watched a video today and it took me maybe 10 seconds for me to realize that the host was AI. Just because it was really, really, really good. And then I noticed the mouth movements were not like as perfect as they should be and it was an AI video. But I really want there to be like a like a PSA grading company that puts a stamp on everything that's not AI. And that way you could kind of filter the internet through like these are the real videos and these are AI. But Graham, you already know that there will be. We don't know what the company is. We don't know exactly what that process will look like or what the tech will look like, but that will happen. It's a guarantee that will happen. Um it has to happen. It has to happen for trust. And I'm willing to take a huge bet that we're not going to become 100% artificial 100% of the time. Like if that's the bet I have to take, I'll take that bet all day long because I know how humans are. We need that sense of humanity. We need that sense of human connection. It has to exist. And the further we dive into this AI world, the more special it will become. But it But by the way, it will become more difficult. If you're a creator 3 years from now, you can't just phone it in. Right? You actually have to have unique, bold, voice that's special. You have to have that interpersonal relationship with those that follow you. You have to go above and beyond. It's going to become a really difficult thing to pull off. But for those that are willing to put the time in and pull it off, I think the value on those humans will be exponentially higher than they are today. Well, maybe that's why live events or certain in-person places will do better. I think live is just part of it. But like live is just the validation that there's someone there beyond the digital. But when you're watching someone and you know they're human, like the mistakes that they might make, the things that they might do, it's just like it will always be different. I'm sorry, it will always be different, at least for our lifetime, I think, or for the next 10 or 15 years. I'm really comfortable making that bet. And And And it's something that humans should value because it means we we're not left out of this. And by the way, I am absolutely confident that while it might be painful, this whole transitional window that we're about to go through where a lot of people get laid off, maybe, um on the tail end of that, this will create more projects. It will create more opportunity to solve more problems, and we will have a supply-demand issue with humans, meaning that we are going to have, I think, the lowest unemployment rates that we've ever seen in 10 years because we will not have enough humans for the amount of industry and things that we want to do in an AI world. Speaking of unemployment rates, what do you think about these huge lines that have formed outside of the Swatch stores? Great question cuz I was on the plane holding the Swatch bag cuz I got one, okay? And the flight attendant was like, "Tell me about the whole experience." And she's like, "Why did so many people care?" And I said, "People cared because we have very few points of commonality and connection anymore. So when something happens and we're able to actually have that level of connectivity with each other and do something together, it's special and we value it. I mean, listen, it was on our text thread. I had five other text groups where that one viral. And it was so fun for us all to talk about something that And most of them are guys, right? We all going to watches, we talk about watches, right? It's so like we don't watch the same TV shows any We all listen to different music. We we're There's a billion creators and everyone follows their niche. It's so cool when we have these viral moments. And as dumb as it seems, people were going to show up at them all that day and know that there were a few thousand other people there with them and it was going to be an event. It was going to be a moment with other people and they didn't know how it was going to play out. But they just want to feel something. We all want to just feel something that's real. How much of that is scalping though? Because I imagine I mean, you got your hands on one, which I haven't seen yet. Did you bring it? Yeah, I have it here. >> Yeah, absolutely. Go get it. Okay. So this is the bag. I've not yet seen this, but I imagine, you know, you weren't waiting in the line. You probably paid off a scalper who was trying to get a cheap one. >> I tried to get a Task Rabbit person to wait in line. No one was willing to wait in line before 8:30. Have you opened this or no? I I opened it. You know I I brought this because every time I do your guys' show, am I the most frequented guest on your show? Am I like the >> You might be. You might be the equivalent of like the guy on the late-night show who comes on all the time. This might put you in the running. Okay. So, every time I run into an Ice Coffee Hour fan, they are so sweet and so kind to me that I wanted to like bring something fun for the I was hoping you guys can just give this away, maybe do a comment raffle or something. >> Oh, really? Um yeah, that's why I did this. I literally did this cuz I was coming on the show. I don't wear watches. I don't want it, but I was going to get one cuz I I figured your followers would probably appreciate this. And so, there weren't that many scalpers. I looked for them. That day of, I found one kid on Facebook Marketplace that was willing to sell this for $2,000. And I bought it. I met him at a Starbucks so I didn't get kidnapped. I don't know who he was going to be. And uh yeah, so it's like I guess the No, I want to give it to you guys. I wanted to give it to your guys' like followers. >> If you comment, "We need a round six with Chris." with Chris. With Chris. We need a round six with Chris. The text will be right here. No periods. No nothing. Just "We need a round six with Chris." Then this could be yours for the low price of free. I want to actually see this. This is actually really, really cool. It's lighter than I thought it was going to be, but it is still metal. It's not plastic, right? It's bioceramic. Okay. It's not limited production, too, right? Well, no hold on. Now, they said they're going to sell it for a few months. So, it sounds to me like it's still semi-limited. They're not just going to run this for the year. I mean, they Okay, so let me tell you the story behind this one. The kid showed up at North Park Mall in Dallas at 1:00 a.m. And he was number 44 in line. When he bought that, they only had five left, he said. So, they basically had 50. Imagine if you showed up online at 1:20 in the morning and still didn't get one of these. There were like a thousand people online. So, right after he bought that, they started the police started macing people online because people started realizing that they weren't going to get one and started shoving and stuff and they were trying to calm down. I mean, you saw what happened with the shootings and like >> Yeah. wild. Like nuts. How much would you pay for that right now, Graham, and you couldn't resell it? Uh, I'd pay I'd pay retail. Uh, I I wouldn't I wouldn't Yeah. I think these stay at 2,000-ish. Even I don't think they're going to make that many. I could be wrong. I bet they land at about 1,500 to 2,000. >> The hard part was that the MoonSwatch went up to about the same price, came down, settled in the 6 to 800 range for a while, and now they're selling at or below. But it took 3 years. And now you can get whatever one you want slightly below retail. >> like a quarter of a million of them, though? >> They sold a lot of them. >> I don't think they're going to sell that many, just reading between the lines of this collaboration. >> why wouldn't they? Why wouldn't they just say, "We're doing a few months, get the demand, sell them out, and then bring it back?" Yes, but I'm assuming that AP put a ceiling. This Listen, AP's a That's a pretty rare collaboration. So, I would imagine that AP said, "Let's do it, but we want to still be somewhat special." I don't know that AP would allow them to sell a quarter of a million. Um, I could be wrong. I'm assuming it's going to be a more limited release released than the the Moon watch. >> So, why aren't you investing in the stock? >> already. I The big move already happened. The the social art move on that collaboration was the second you found out it was going to happen and then exiting last week. There was a second wave that could have happened if this weekend went really well, but this weekend was chaos. They had to shut all the stores down. People were really upset with Swatch. It's potentially a bad brand moment. We don't really know if it's going to ultimately be beneficial or not for Swatch. So, I'm not sure there's really a big move left in the stock, but I got in it early. I tried all this stuff. >> What return did you get on it? It was not that much. I think it's maybe like 10%. But wouldn't you think that if this is a success, they'll repeat this with other brands? They could do an Hermes Swatch. They could do maybe like a AP Louboutin So, yeah, so so they could just keep repeating this process. >> They're following the playbook, the Crocs playbook, right? And it's it's genius. It's genius and I think that is the upside here. So, what I mean by the trades over, the trade for like this one release right now is probably over. But if Swatch proves this model out and we now have tons and tons of collaborations, I think it's could be a game-changer for the company. I don't care enough about it to like do the hard work and research to where I'm going to put an immense amount of money and leverage into that trade, but I think it's a worthy thing to look into if you're an investor and you have that thesis. What are you seeing right now with Pokémon prices? Cuz those had a huge run at these last few months and it seems like things might be stalling out a little bit. >> So, you know, I sold the Pokémon conference to Ari Emanuel, Collect-A-Con, last month. So, I was in the Pokémon world deep for like four and a half years and now I'm out. Uh my understanding of what happened to Pokémon is that about a year ago there were a handful of crypto traders that decided to go deep into the Pokémon world. And they basically over invested in Pokémon over short period of time and set off a chain of events that set Pokémon on fire. That's my understanding of where the money flow came into. What's interesting is it wasn't like they popped the market and it deflated. They set the market on fire and now it's just been rolling and rolling ever since. I don't know how that plays out for Pokémon over the short term, but I've always believed that Pokémon and and IP similar to Pokémon for a collector is where it's at. Because unlike other collectibles, it's not set in a period of time where you have a peak where the people that were really into that baseball player, right? Or football player hit peak wealth and drive the market up and then the next generation has less of an appreciation for like that player for like with sports cards. Um I think Pokémon's fascinating cuz they reinvent themselves for each generation. So, it's one of these real really rare collectibles that has cross-generational demand. So, you can make a case that the Pokémon market could stay healthy and continue to drive forward for a very long time. I'm not saying it will, but there's certainly a thesis there that has data to back that up. So, the Pokémon collectors might not be as crazy as you think they are. Cuz it's it's it's an interesting asset class because that IP can just get re invented for each generation. What other things aside from Pokémon do you think have that level of stickiness? I think manga is fascinating because if you think about it, like that's how comic books became a sector, right? Because like all the IP that we love in superheroes, right? Like the comic books are like the manga for all that IP. So, if you believe in Pokémon and you know, a lot of the related kind of IP in that world, there were only there's like there's a few years of that OG manga that for the first time is getting graded. So, that's the arbitrage window. The arbitrage window is the stuff wasn't graded before. When did they start grading it? About a year ago? Is that right? Yeah, I think it was fairly recent. >> So, once you start grading it, it becomes institutionalized and now you have a really trustworthy way to value that as an asset class. So, that's what I love. Like I'm not a collector, but if I was trying to trade a collectible, I would look for some shift to happen. Like some narrative shift and that's what happened to manga. It became it was uncollectible cuz it wasn't gradable. Then then it became gradable, so now it becomes collectible and it becomes an actual asset class that investors can say this is an 8.5 or 7.5 and we have data. I think that's the move. I don't know how much longer that goes on for. What I've seen like a tenfold increase in pricing over 6 months? 6 or 7 months? >> what the one I really want is a vinyl record, original, unopened of Thriller. I think that'd be so cool. >> That would be cool. >> I've noticed now, this might be another social arb to some degree, Michael Jackson is making like this Big time. comeback. Big time. Huge. Everyone is now obsessed of Michael Jackson. I'm getting Tik Toks of him, recordings. I think there's something there. >> But is it durable? I mean, I get it, but like what's the narrative that would lead you to believe that Michael Jackson will get more popular over the next 5 10 years? Nostalgia. I think The Beatles will beat Michael Jackson. >> But nostalgia nostalgia shifts, right? So like 80s are hot right now, 90s are hot. There will become a point in time when the 2000s and the 2010s become hot. >> And the people that are most interested in the 80s and 90s are people that experienced it first hand like me. I'm obsessed with it. Like this whole thing with the Pizza Hut guy that owns a bunch of Pizza Huts and he's converting them into 80s Pizza Huts. I'm obsessed with that. Like I think that's the coolest thing ever. Um we eventually go away. And nostalgia shifts over time. And that's my whole issue with collectibles. You have to be really careful ball or if you want to like trade collectibles, you have to catch them on the upswing as they hit their peak cuz you look at what happened to the car market, right? The old guys that like the muscle cars and then they came down. And now the cars that are like popping are the 80s and 90s cars, right? Eventually it'll be the 2000s like you're good. You got ahead of it like those early EVs at some point are going to crush it. >> hope so. That way any day I'm hoping that Tesla Roadster is The problem is if you sit on it for 20 years, your cost to cap that that's just like capital that's not being utilized and not growing in other areas. So you have to time it right. It's all about the time window. Eventually you'll hit, but if you have to wait 20 years, that's It's to suck unless you just get enjoyment out of looking at it. What is your most controversial investing opinion that people would disagree with? I think almost anything that comes out of my mouth seems to be controversial as it as it relates to investing. Um the fact that I don't ever look at stock price or try not to and I don't care what a stock is trading at. I don't care about fundamentals. I don't care about technicals. I don't care about anything other than one piece of information that I think is going to meaningfully impact that company that other people under appreciate. So, I basically buy a stock when I think I've come across something that other people haven't noticed yet or don't fully appreciate and I exit the position as soon as the world comes to appreciate what I did when I entered the position. So, I call it like the point of information parity when the rest of the world sees what you see. And when you invest in the stock is that an information imbalance, right? So, it's super unconventional. It's like I call it social arb. Some people call it attention arb. I just try to identify things a little bit quicker than other people. That's it. And really the best way to do that is by removing yourself from all of the noise, all of the Fed noise, all the macro noise, all the political noise, all the noise of what influencers are talking about and on the in the market every day. So, like people just don't believe that you can do that and not care about PE or revenue or fundamentals, not care about technicals, not care about anything and actually make money. What IPO are you most excited about? Anthropic. What do you think about the SpaceX IPO? I don't this is this is like such a raw topic for me because I invested in SpaceX at 33 billion. And the fund that I invested in claimed to have run out of money to pay their legal bills in California at 220 billion and forced us out of the stock. They sold the fund. And I think it's because they wanted to get their carry cuz they immediately said, "Well, there's another fund we're working on to re buy SpaceX, blah blah blah. It's more cost-efficient." I got I got pulled out of SpaceX at 220 billion and it really upsets me now watching this IPO cuz my plan was to always hold it through the IPO. Now, you did make like 8x. Yeah, but it would have made a lot more, right? And I was so upset at the time. I just like I was like, "I'm not I'm not reinvesting because I I had to pay all this carry. So, I would have had less money to re So, it's basically like I got screwed. And I like out of spite, I wanted nothing to do with SpaceX at that point. And here we are. But aren't you seeing right now a lot of secondary shares? They're saying that like, "Hey, maybe we're not going to honor that. This secondary share offering might not be real. Are you worried about >> I see that. I see that stuff. I don't I think that's just to dissuade people from doing more of it. I don't think that Sam Altman or Elon or Anthropic are actually going to go to investors who invested through an SPV that was maybe unauthorized and say, "We're taking your shares back." They don't want that PR hell. It's the wrong thing to do to the investor because it's not the investor's fault, right? Most of these investors didn't understand that. So, I I don't think they're going to actually do any of that. I'm invested in a few of those deals. I'm not concerned. >> [gasps] >> Um SpaceX, I don't know, guys. Like, I'm not going to buy the IPO. So, I'm not saying it's a bad investment. I'm just not interested in it. I I don't have any alpha on SpaceX that's special that the rest of the world doesn't already know. And I don't make investments unless I know something that I think is meaningful that other people under appreciate. What do you know about Anthropic that other people don't? We don't have that many models, first of all, right? If you look at what Anthropic has done over the past 9 months, the biggest issue with Anthropic is they had issues monetizing. They had a really good model, but OAI was monetizing really well. Now, Anthropic is monetizing unbelievably well. They've won the trust of enterprise. OAI is also going to be really big in enterprise, and so is Google. But, Anthropic is a company that been really prudent. They have a founder that is not as hated as as Sam Altman, right? Is not as controversial as Sam Altman. And I just think what they're doing in enterprise is disgustingly amazing. Like, the traction that they're getting across enterprise at a global level is wild, and it's really sticky. So, there's just not a lot of competition for what they do. They're going to end up being one of the three big players globally in in terms of models. And they're going to have a tremendous amount of leverage that comes with that. Do you have any opinion when it comes to Bitcoin? No opinion. I I the I had the same opinion on Bitcoin that I've had for the past 8 or 9 years. I have some of it. I think for the most part, as wealth transfers from old people to young people, Young people are more likely to have some of their investments in Bitcoin. So, there's this long tail of increased demand in Bitcoin that over the course of the next 20 years should be a massive tailwind. And Bitcoin would theoretically float up. I don't think about Bitcoin. I don't try to trade Bitcoin. I do think there are risk. There are risk with security, right? In a world where computing gets to a point where Bitcoin maybe is not secure anymore. That's a massive risk. I don't have enough Bitcoin that I care. I know you're you guys are big. You Dave is big in it, too. I don't My my YouTube partner. I I would never be in it that big. I don't understand having more than a point or two or three in Bitcoin. Last time we had you on the show, we asked you who are the best founders of our lifetime. And your answer went pretty viral a few different times. I think you said Jensen. Yeah. I think you said you said Vlad. Yeah. And you might have said Elon as well. Yeah. >> And I'm curious if anything has changed in the past couple of months with how how quickly stuff is also changed. I think you have to give Amazon and and and Jesse here, right in Amazon, a big nod to what he did. Uh they were late to AI. Which was scary for a company like Amazon. And they have now made the moves. The $200 billion of capex that they knew they were going to get crushed for that. And they did get crushed for that. The moves that they made with Trainium. Trainium now being one of the hottest AI chips in the world. As a business, I mean, did you see the numbers behind Trainium? What they're doing? It's like 50 billion, I think, and right I mean it it it's astonishing what Amazon has done in the last 12 to 18 months to catch up in the AI race not by having their own foundation model but by putting themselves front and center touching every single facet of everything that is AI from the infrastructure layer to advertising to chipsets with Trainium to making massive investments in Anthropic. I mean Amazon's investment in Anthropic could end up netting them 200 billion dollars easy when they IPO. Okay, so everyone was so worried that Amazon upped their capex this year to 200 billion. They might make 200 billion just on their Anthropic investment, okay? They now made a massive investment in OpenAI and I know OpenAI is a controversial company but listen, Sam just won the lawsuit today against Elon. That basically sets the runway for their IPO. Amazon just put 50 billion in to OpenAI. And with that also attaches OAI to the Amazon ecosystem now. So they have two of the big three Google being the third basically tied into Amazon infrastructure in perpetuity probably forever. I mean it's just a it was just a ballsy move. I saw Elon said the only reason he lost was because of a technicality of a calendar. That's not true. I I've been following the case and essentially many of the things that Elon said he did or the relationships or things that he did with OAI in the early days, the documents proved something different. Else I'm not going to get too into it. I just been following it for fun. The case was not nearly as strong in Elon's favor as I anticipated it would be. And I expected him to lose the case once I actually saw the docs. And what went down in the early days of OpenAI. It was very clear to me that he was going to lose the case. I didn't speak about it cuz I would have gotten trashed for it. I'm not anti-Elon at all. I want Elon to win. I mean, Elon is the guy that's going to change the world for the better by making big ballsy moves in robotics and everything else. So, like, I'm not anti-Elon. Just just objectively I may I thought a few weeks ago there's no way he's winning this case. And And sure enough, he lost. Um But anyway, it sets the stage for massive IPO window for OpenAI that will also benefit Amazon. So, I would add him to the list. I think you have to. And um you know, I I've I've I've said I've said it before, like, I think Amazon's going to double from here. I mean, I'm not I'm not a price guy, but I just think the runway's massive. No one's even trading the AI efficiency wave for Amazon yet. It hasn't even started yet. And how about robotics? Automation. 25 years of building global infrastructure. Do you see what Amazon just did uh with the last-mile delivery where basically any company now can use them as their as their delivery company, Amazon? Like, they're basically becoming a full-fledged UPS and FedEx. It's It's really astonishing. Um I just been I I've never been so excited about a big cap company. >> How How are you telling your kids to adapt here? Cuz you're coming at an age where they're looking at colleges and career. Yeah. How do they navigate all of this? Cuz anything they study today is going to be outdated in 4 years. My kids graduate in 2 years. They'll get to make their own decisions. But I mean, my kids are really into sports. My daughter wants to play volleyball in college, which is a conventional, you know, path. Uh my son, I don't know. I fully support taking a year off now. I fully support not going to college. Uh I think if you can get into a top 10, 15 school, you'll get enough of a network benefit that I would go to college. I would go to an Ivy. Just for the relationships, for those authentic relationships with people. If you can't get into one of those schools, I think the I idea of taking a year off and experiencing the world and culture and people and having that college experience, if you can afford it, would be a really cool substitute for the social experience you otherwise would have received at a four-year university. Then you start your real life 3 years earlier than everyone else with virtually no debt, no college debt, and you have a lot of optionality. You can now go work an internship for someone, right? You can go learn at real companies. You can go to a trade school. You can do what we discussed, which is becoming hyper-proficient in AI and maybe just going and starting a lifestyle business where you have a bunch of clients, or maybe you just work for one person, one company as an AI proficient person. Um I call them AI translators, right? I think every company in the world needs an AI translator. Someone just to be that medium between the world of AI and all of their problems. So, anytime you have a problem, that AI translator or team of AI translators can discern, can we fix that problem using AI at pennies on the dollar as opposed to how we were fixing that problem a few years ago. These aren't AI prompt engineers. These are people that can just properly assess the right tool sets and capabilities of artificial intelligence and degree to which it can be leveraged to solve problems inside of business and enterprise. I think that becomes one of the biggest careers going forward. I don't know what the world will call them, but that's what I call them. Um I would encourage my kids to slow down, not rush into anything. Take a year off again. Go go go travel, do that. Pennies on the dollar compared to what college costs, right? You're going to doing the whole Europe thing and I never did that. I think that would be fun. Uh meet people though cuz like at the end of the day the one resource that will become infinitely valuable going forward are human relationships. So go out and meet people all around the world your age because you'll end up potentially working with those people or for those people, right? And that's the one thing that's so special still. How do you get a job? Through relationships, authentic relationships. So go out and build a lot of authentic relationships. Then get training in the real world because no college is going to teach you what you need in the real world. I'm sorry. Like there's they they cannot recreate those curriculums fast enough because as soon as they like tweak the curriculum to be an AI friendly curriculum, AI has changed again. So just like the whole concept of going to a four-year university, no matter how >> [gasps] >> much they say they're keeping up with the times is BS. I would take an alternate path unless you get into a top 10 15 school. And that And again, it's all about the network and relationships. It's not for the schooling. Right. And of course there are paths where you still need to go to college, medical, and various things, right? But but that's the advice I have for my kids and would be really supportive of alternative unconventional pathways for them. And I think as parents, we all have to be open to unconventional pathways. And I know that's hard, especially for boomers or even Gen X, like me. Um because we're like, "What? You're not going to college?" You know? No. I think not going to college is going to be the new going to college, where it's like you were smart enough to know that you shouldn't go to college. Completely agree with you on that one. >> And you have the confidence in yourself that you are savvy enough. You know what I'm saying? Like that you are self-educated enough to know that college is not the right move. Yeah, it's weird to say that, but I think that's where we're headed. I agree with that. Sounds like Naval Ravikant. He says, "The way I test someone's intelligence is if they are living the life that they want to be living." Basically, not just being a sheep going to college because everyone else is going to college, but being able to see the playing field for what it truly is and navigate it to the best of their ability. And I'm kind of doing that with my own life right now. Like this whole next phase of my life is just cool stuff with close friends. And like I'll only do business stuff if it's really fun and enjoyable and it's what someone I'm really close with and trust, you know? And it's like So, part of the reason why I want to work with creators with this incubation podcast studio in Austin is because I enjoy working with creative people. I enjoy working with ambitious people. I enjoy how hard it is. Like it's probably one of the hardest things to do. It was like, how many podcasts are there? Like 20 million or something? Like how many top 20? What what what are this what's this statistical chance of incubating a top 20 podcast? Almost impossible. That to me, that challenge is what excites me. So, and to get to take that journey with creative ambitious people, I mean, I'm at a stage of my life where like and I by the way, I I'm constantly talking to like these guys who sold their companies who are worth like 50 million to 10 billion almost on the daily now. And this is the conversation I have with them. And I have this and they look at me and they're like, "Hmm." I had one guy tell me last week, he sold his company a couple years ago, "I think I'm going to go buy that bonsai shop that me and my daughter like so much." I was like, "Yeah, you're getting it now. Like, you love your daughter and you and her love bonsai's. Like, why don't you buy the shop? Why don't you create an It's been around for 30 years in Dallas. Like, why don't you create an e-commerce model with her? Why don't you figure out maybe you could bring some content creators in, have fun with it, have it be like a newer generation bring in like artificial and intelligence for marketing and business ops. You can make that shop more efficient, more productive, more profitable. She could learn life lessons and this is the thing that you and your daughter have been doing for years. How much joy would you get out of that? He's like And it's like, so every time I meet with one of these guys, usually I'm able to convince them to kind of do more of what I'm doing. Cuz like, we all get in our zone where we just do the same thing. By the way, almost everyone I know is just chasing a bigger number. They sold their company, they had success, so the number keeps going up and up and up. I'm like, "Dude, what the hell are you going to do with all that money? Like, I don't get it. I I I just don't understand it. Like, when at a certain point when you have enough friends that own yachts and vacation homes and fly private, you kind of don't need to spend any of your own money anymore anyway, cuz you're just doing their stuff. You know, like, I don't understand what the difference is between 20 million dollars and 200 million. I really don't. Like, I don't know how your life changes between 20 million and 200 million. I don't understand that. >> difference between 600 grand a year and 6 million a year. In terms of spending at 3%, which would be pretty substantial. But are you really going to be spending $500,000 a month? Like, how that sounds like a job. >> but but but I'm just saying it's like imagine living on 600 grand a year or 6 million a year. It's two totally different worlds. It's a literal job to spend that amount of money. Like, you want days where you just kind of hang out. More money More money, more things, more problems. That is so true. With every single person I know, one of my best friends, I love him to death, but I make fun of him all the time because he has so many things. He has people taking care of the things. He's always stressed out. And like taxes and this and that, like just keeping [snorts] track of all the things is a job at that point. So, I don't know, man. I'm about simplicity and relationships and like really trying to figure out what brings you true joy and cancel out everything else in life. And I don't get the whole chasing the number that gets bigger and bigger. But the number is significant to a certain extent. You would say $20 million is probably that critical mass. I think 20 million is a good number. By the way, the number's different for everyone. I mean, depending on who you are, the number could be 40 or 50 or could be five. So, let's just say you At what point do you say, "Okay, like that number is way too large?" I mean, I started hanging out with this billionaire who's just sold his company and he I think I think he's probably worth like six or seven billion. And I'm like, "What are you going to do?" He's like, "The same thing. I'm staying on as CEO." And I'm not going to even say what industry it is, but in my head it is a horrible industry to have to stay in. He's like, "I've been doing it for 15 years. I'm good with it good with it." Like, I dude, don't you want to like do something different, man? But like to each their own, right? To each their own. But I still like if you're doing it for the joy cuz you really like get off on like working in that industry sector, I think that's cool. But the whole I haven't met a single person that keeps raising the number that is happier when they hit that number. Not one in my entire life. It just seems like such a terrible thing to chase. Because you think that number is going to get you something else and that dopamine hit last for like 5 minutes and it's over. And then and then they're miserable again and chasing a new number to get God knows what. I don't even know. Again, I don't understand like after a few tens of millions, how the hell do you spend that much money? Even the nicest restaurants in the world, right? Like you can get a by $25,000 or so membership and like you can get into pretty much any restaurant. Like I Am I like am I crazy or like what what what I mean? >> you. >> [laughter] >> I agree with you. It's a lifestyle. That's all I I think. Yeah, but >> You know, flying private would be really like we're we're talking about like you know, doing a trip and like oh man, if we could fly private, that would solve a lot of issues. But that would be 50 grand and like spending 50,000 is would be irresponsible. But there's an amount of money that if we had, spending 50k would just be like, oh that's fun. The the more important thing though is the delta. Like what does it take to get from now to that point of being able to fly private and is it worth it to sacrifice another 10 years of your life to then be able to upgrade from first class to private once every 6 months. >> You can't travel that much even if you're flying private. You get it I got all these guys that got like a jet card or maybe they own a jet. It's a million a year, whatever it is. Like if If in the tens of mill you can do that too. That That's what I don't understand. Like Like what Wait, so how much money do you have to have to fly private three times a year within the United States? Dude, that's your >> You're probably spending two 200 grand a a year? Max 200,000 a year on the three flight round trips. Max. It's probably a lot closer to like 130 140,000 dollars a year. So like it's nothing if you have tens of millions, right? You don't need more tens of millions. You definitely don't need hundreds of millions to do that. I The The biggest thing I've seen is that people take ridiculous risk when they get a lot of money and then they go broke. They just go crazy or massive drug issues, depression, gambling, all the bad stuff. I'll just say all the bad stuff hits. So it's like I think you're almost better off keeping it to a reasonable number so that you can actually relate to normal people in your life. Like I I think once you get into the stratosphere where you become people become unrelatable to you, it actually causes a lot of anxiety and mental stress because you just can't connect. We talked about this earlier. Like Like I think that human connection is extraordinarily important and it's something that we don't think about. And with excess wealth you start to disconnect from from humanity. Even knowing you're worth that much money is a weird I think it messes with your head. I really do. I think it messes with your head. So that's why I say just give it away. I'll just give it away. Create a foundation. Give it away, man. Like I I By the way, like I talked about this recently like foundations are so good. No more trust funds. Just start a foundation, put the money in there. Your kids can take a nominal salary, right? They get health insurance. You don't have to have attorneys approving stuff. Dude, foundations are the greatest. It's most enjoyable thing I do. Every November I get to write the checks and send the wires out to like and I basically go out to my friend network. I don't I don't know if I've ever gone to you guys. Everyone who I think might be philanthropic, I'll do it this year for you guys. I I say give me the name all I need to know is just give me the name of a charity uh that you love, that you trust, that is relatively efficient with their capital, that's really making a meaningful difference. And I will wire the money out tomorrow. That's all I need. >> Society, something animal related. >> I do a bunch of So, well, you know, I am getting more closely aligned. I talked to you guys with with with uh Beast Philanthropy. I I went to Africa with Jimmy and I know he gets a lot of crap for like being too big. People don't think he's for real. Is he doing it for the wrong reasons? Dude, I never seen a guy in my life work so hard and be so locked in to changing the world. Doesn't seem to have a lot of fun. >> [laughter] >> He's not partying. He's just like working and he's so intense and he has this like master plan. >> what he finds fun though. I know he does, but like >> That's his version of fun is being able to work. Well, he has this master plan to like bring every kid in the world out of child labor and it's really sophisticated and it's so well thought out. I'm just like, dude, if the world saw what I saw when I was with him in Ghana, I was like, they would not be giving him so much crap. >> But but how come the world isn't seeing him like that? Because he has so many eyeballs on him and he could choose to show whatever he wants to. It's human nature that when you see someone get that big, you start to pick them apart because we always assume a billionaire, he's a billionaire now, right on paper. He's like a billionaire on paper, but man, does he not live like one. Okay, >> [laughter] >> like uh I I I can't say The stuff that I saw him do, I was like I I couldn't even believe it. Um Could you tell us anything that you saw him do? He didn't even come back to the hotel one night. He's like staying out in the jungle, dude. I'm like Dude, you couldn't pay me enough. >> Do you know what he was doing in the jungle? >> Yeah, I mean like he just he It was a whole thing where he got there There was plane issues. So, they got there He's not flying private, either, you know? That's the thing. It's crazy. Just on a regular flight. I think he's in coach, dude. It was wild. Um but he want to get more work done. He didn't want to have to like He want to get started earlier in the morning. I'm like it's a 3-hour drive from the from the city to the the jungle where they were building their school and all their stuff. He's like, "No, no, no, I need to get a good meal. I need to sleep in a real bed. You know, I'll I'll take the drive. I'll take the drive back, man." Uh But I But I love it. I I I think I think we don't ordinarily see people that get to that level that actually care that much still about doing the right thing. So, it's it's normal for us to to be cynical. And that's to I get it. I Listen, if I could say one thing, the guy is legit. He's legit. His heart is legitimately in the right place. Uh I spent almost a full day just talking to him about what he wants to build in the future, and it was all noble. Like it was all like noble for noble causes. So, like I'm going to be uh donating a bunch to to Beast Philanthropy. I have for a few years now. I just have a high degree of trust in where that money is going. >> If he IPOs, would you buy his IPO? This is what's so crazy, and I don't want to talk specifics, but I am invested in Beast uh because I invest I was one one first investors in the chocolate company. Really? >> Yeah. So, though I think those shares have been converted to Beast Industry. And when I saw the valuation of Beast Industry, it's 5 billion right now. I was like, there's no way this thing is worth 5 billion. Where How is he going to grow this? And then I spoke to him for like We spoke to him for 7 hours straight about like strategy and where he's going with this. Like, dude, this is going to be a $20 plus company. Guaranteed. Like I I don't I didn't want to say what he's doing, but what he's doing is so smart. You know how I talk about like you Why would you start your own company when you could throw money at psychotic people like Vlad and Elon and Steve Jobs back in the day that will literally not do anything else in life but be laser-focused and build like relentlessly towards that end goal? He's one of those people. He is miles ahead of everyone else in what he does, and I don't think anyone else in the content world is going to be able to keep up with him. So, I just think the endless possibilities for how big he can build that empire well beyond just his own brand of himself. And I don't even think he's really getting started yet. That's what's so crazy. That's what's so crazy. I think he's like 29, right? >> No, he's younger than that. >> 28? He's like 26? No. No, I think he's No, he's definitely 28. >> or 28. He's not younger than me. Tell me you're not I think he's younger than He cannot be younger than me, Grant. Yes, he is. I still have like 8 months to get to his level. So, yeah. I mean I mean May 7th, 1998. Okay. So, he is a little older than you, Jack. So, I still I still have 5 months. Okay. And much wiser. So, like I said, without even knowing the without even knowing the business model, cuz I don't know if I'm allowed to give any of that away, like invest in this in the psychopath who's going to put 100% of their life and energy into getting to their end goal. Like dude, I could not do what he's doing even for one week of my life. And I consider myself an exceptionally hard worker. I just can't I'm not built like that. I just can't. I got to have a more diversified life and a whole lot of other things. So yeah, man. I'm yeah, I would. I think I would. I I would invest in it. I am already in it. All right, Chris. So you're now reviewing our portfolios. I'll be handing my phone over to you right now. That's my individual account. I also have a I also have a Roth IRA and a SEP in there as well. And the goal is to rate it out of 10. 10 would be perfect and one would be awful. Dude, this is like you said on a scale of 0 to 10 I should rate it? >> Yeah. Eight. That's exactly what the money guy said, didn't they? No, they gave me a seven I think. Seven and a half. Yeah, yeah. I mean, listen, you're young so I want to see aggressiveness and I see it. Um I want to see concentration around AI, which is one of the only things that matters right now and I see it. Um you Oh, wait a second. Okay. I see some ETFs here with some big numbers in it. I just want to make sure Yeah. It's mostly VUG. Yeah. It's an eight. Solid eight. Cool. What do you think could be improved? You only leverage on that? I don't. What's the upside downside of applying a little bit of leverage? A little bit of margin. You're borrowing money. Okay, the the way the world works is smart people borrow money and do smart things with it to generate a bigger return than the return you're paying someone else. You're smart, smarter than most. So, why not borrow a little bit of money on margin? I don't know, 5% or they 5 6%? And assume that you're going to be able to beat that 5 or 6% right? Start with 5% margin, 10% 10% of your portfolio. What's it going to worry about the market going down 90%? You're going to get zeroed out. You're young. I actually kind of agree with you, if I'm being honest. That's just for me though. That's for >> You don't want him dealing with margin though. Here's the deal. I mean, I've outperformed the market >> Here's the deal. I'm I'm not No, I'm not >> for the past probably four. >> Jack, I'm not saying to go in with 40 to 90% like I do. Baby steps. Take a little bit of margin out. Just take a little bit. Yeah, maybe I You know what? Just because of you, I'm going to get a little bit of margin. A little bit. I don't care if you >> me up to a nine. And get more comfortable with it over time. >> Okay. And just know the the the the good days are going to be a little bit better and the bad days are going to be a little bit worse and that's okay. Mhm. Because you you you appear to have a margin of safety there that if you lose 10% more on the bad days, I don't think it's going to kill you. Yeah. I would agree. And and I do think I this might even be a little safe, honestly. It is. But it's way better than I thought it was going to be. >> my my job to be high-risk. And so when you would probably argue that it's not, I would say like the the fluctuations in income suggest that it could be high-risk, so I take a little bit more conservative >> high-risk. It's not. You're in control of your destiny. You're in a really stable sector in a mature show. Uh if you were working for someone else and had no control over your destiny, you could get terminated tomorrow and go from 100% of your income to zero, that's high-risk. I don't see you going from 100% of what you you now to zero. You might have to back off 20, 30% if you have a down year, sponsorships, viewership. I think you're in a really safe place professionally and you should I'll be a little bit more aggressive. >> Okay. All right, here you go. I don't even >> [laughter] >> know what that is. What? Wait, wait, what? Oh. Oh, it's Oh, that's just That's just the uh Okay, I take it back. Wait. How do I see the portfolio? I have to click on the different accounts. >> Okay. Um I was like, what is that? Some weird real estate thing that you were in? >> [laughter] >> I don't know I don't know what you're talking about. Uh all right. There's three There should be three accounts in there. >> Okay. I Well, I'm I'm looking at the big one. That's I think that'll tell me everything I need to know. You love diversity, don't you? Mhm. Damn. Like Like where are your individual stocks, Graham? Uh that's in the other account. So, I have to You'll like the stocks, but you're not going to like the amounts. >> Huge. Huge. You're not going to get a good grade No. for this. Okay, hold on. >> [laughter] >> I do like the stocks. It's like, what's the point of even What does he have in these stocks? It's just so minuscule relative to the crazy diversified stuff he has. See, I would be fine with just earning 6% a year. If I could just guarantee lock in 6% a year for like 50 years, I'd be thrilled. Oh God. Can I ask you a question before I grade you? >> What is your What's your in- investment objective? Preservation and slow growth. To me, I I like just locking it in. That's his investment goal, but his financial goal is completely different. >> me about your financial goal. I would like 50% more liquid. So, this account I want it to grow 50% and then I would also in addition to that, like a a nicer primary residence at some point. So, about that that amount of money is what he wants. Yeah, so if we could double that Basically double, yeah. >> Yeah, if you if if you double that, I hit both of those. >> He he achieves the next milestone to then push off because because your financial objective is so conservative I'll up it to a 6.5 because I think you will get there with with what you're doing. But you can get there so much quicker. Like you're smarter than that. You see things. Um and I would like to think that beyond your own financial goals you could be doing something way bigger. And you don't you're young still. Like in 10 years, you might come across something and be like, "Wow, if I had that much money, I could be part of this." Buying a sports team, who the hell knows what it is, right? Um so, you have to look out for the things that you don't know you're going to want today. And I know you could be doing better if you put like took 25% out of that diversified portfolio and invested in individual stocks, maybe the same ones you're in. I just think you have so much diversity in those ETFs. I think you'd be okay taking a quarter out and putting it in the individual stocks. I really do. >> I'm just not one for volatility. I can't stand it. When when it's up a lot, I see the purchasing power of what that is and I the my first thought is I got to trim. And I just see like when I buy an ETF, like the S&P 500, to me mentally, it's like, all right, I bank it away, I lock it away, it's there, it's separate. And so, mentally for me it's just like once it's there, I just kind of assume and I model 6% a year. >> I think if you want comfort in your life, you're doing the right thing. I think also for people that are anomalies, and you're one of those anomalies, I think you owe it to the world to be uncomfortable. To like to like push yourself a little harder, to make more money, to do bigger things, to give yourself more optionality to do things beyond your own comfort level. So So if you if you took the approach that I'm suggesting and took 25% and put it into the individual stocks that you're pretty darn good picking, I think you're going to have a larger pool wealth in 5 to 10 years, more optionality in your life, and I just knowing you as a person, I know you're going to do good things with that, and I would like to see you have more optionality. And I think you owe it to the world to be a little less comfortable personally with your finances in order to do something big for other people. That's how I think about it for myself. Like I there are sometimes where I'm a little nervous like, you know, year and a half whenever that was with the tariffs, I'm like, I don't deserve just to like sit on my money and just sit on that gravy train till I die. No, I like I'm I'm a special person and I could do big things and I need to make myself uncomfortable and take risk to make the money I know I'm capable of making to help other people. And I And listen, it's different for every person. I don't know what it's going to be for you guys, but I'd like to see you guys get a little more uncomfortable with your own finances. And by the way, I don't mean that for everyone. That's just for you two guys. For like the average person who just has a regular day job and loves their life and is being really productive and great for their family and all this stuff, that might not be the right path for them. But I do think it's the right path for both of you guys. I'm with you. Well, I I agree. Jack fair and square. There we go. One to one. Uh last one is we have the tier list. >> Yeah, so we have we have a tier list. What does that mean? What's a tier list? You're going to have these options of like S tier, A, B, C all the way down to F. >> Oh yeah, I've seen this. >> Yeah. Okay, so Amazon obviously S tier because it's the number one beneficiary of the AI efficiency wave. So you'll move it. You'll just you Oh, I I need to move it. You drag. >> Okay. Click and drag it to S tier. Okay. Apple I'll put C tier because they really have to prove themselves out over the next two to three years. They could end up miraculously figuring out a way to execute on AI and move up or they can completely fall apart and we might move beyond the mobile phone as our primary intermediary. In which case Apple could be in huge trouble the next 10 years. I'll sit in C for now. Bloom Energy has to be S tier. Uh it is the absolute quickest way for any data center to go live with energy. Uh it's been my number one pick for the last year more or less. Uh GameStop F tier. I don't understand GameStop at all. It annoys me. I I just don't understand it. They've underperformed the market for the last few years. They haven't really done anything. I don't think this eBay thing is going to work out for them. So, sorry guys. I know there's going to be a lot of meme people who'll hate me, but F tier. Bitcoin I'm going to put it in B tier because I do think as long as no one's able to crack Bitcoin and it remains this safe asset that you don't have to worry about losing. >> [sighs and gasps] >> We have a hundred trillion dollars of wealth transfer over the next 20 years. And for every one gold bug, there's like 10,000 kids that believe in Bitcoin. I say kids in their 20s now, right? And I think we have a massive tailwind of everyone wanting to have 1% or 2% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. Or Graham, you're probably like mid to upper single digits now, right? >> 12. Damn, that is a lot, dude. >> Tim, I have How can you sit here and tell me that you're that you're like you're conservative with this and diversified and have 12% >> because I have way more than that in uh tax-free muni bonds and treasuries. Yeah, but there's tail risk that Bitcoin theoretically could go down a lot in a theoretical situation with the security stuff. To have 12%? That's like having 12% in one stock that has a high beta to it. A very high beta to it. I think that's really risky, dude. I don't like that. I would have I didn't realize when I saw your portfolio. Can I downgrade you to like a 5 5? You're back down to a 5 5. >> double. Could, but I don't like it. 5 5. How much 8 5 5. >> How much would you trim it down to if it's a 12 right now? 5. 5%? I like what he says where it's like every single day you wake up you're choosing to buy this amount 12% of your portfolio of Bitcoin instead of other things that I don't think 12 is that much. Dude, let me tell you something. Like I hang out with some of the biggest crypto guys and they still have huge crypto positions, but they've all been diversifying diversifying into deep tech the last 18 months. Like some of the biggest crypto guys in the world are all diversifying into deep tech, AI, robotics. >> [sighs] >> That's a lot for a guy like you to have in Bitcoin. That just feels like a lot, man. I'm just being honest, but you do you do you. Um Nvidia, I know they're controversial, but I still think they're I still think they're going to be fine for a few years. And you know, Jensen's an animal. You got to put him S tier, all the way up. S tier. Hood, same I'm just I'm just going S tier now. Hood, come on. I think Hood will be the largest financial institution in the world at some point in the next 20 years. I think Vlad's one of the most ambitious CEOs in the world. I think he'll ask for forgiveness later. You know, Hood had a little bit of a dip here because crypto had a dip. But the fact that Robinhood did so well on earnings with that insane hit to the crypto part of their business tells you all you need to know. Even if crypto never really comes back, Robinhood's going to be okay. If crypto comes back at all, dude, I will be pouring into Robinhood with leverage. Like that's the first thing I will do if crypto comes back. Uh sweet Oh, you got Sweetgreen on here. Yep, just for you. >> Right now, I'm going to put them on B tier because it's still not convincing that this wrap is going to be a grand slam, but it's more likely than not that it will be a winner. I'm putting it A tier. Moving up to A tier. Uh that could change. Like I study the social media every day. So every night, I read every comment on every TikTok video of a Sweetgreen wrap. So if I start to see things flatten out or see the hype die or see it reverse, I will immediately exit my Sweetgreen position, just for the record. Oh, MicroStrategy F tier. These leveraged funds in something as volatile as Bitcoin, I'm not even going to get into it. I hate it. I hate it so much. Um F tier. Coinbase I D. I just don't have a lot of visibility into how crypto is going to play out over the next 10 years. I think Coinbase will do fine because they do a lot of institutional stuff and they are the institutional kind of partner for Wall Street when it comes to crypto. But I think they'll have a lot more competition uh the next 10 years if crypto hangs around. Uh Is TQQQ the triple leverage Yes. TQQQ? I love it. I love it. I really do. You know I spent a lot of time with Dave uh Hanson. I'm putting it God, this is seems crazy to put it A tier. I'm putting it A tier because we have this thesis that it is highly likely, highly likely to generate continue to generate two X returns to the QQQ over the next 20 plus years, 25 years. So it's a triple leverage, but with the premium cost it ends up generating about two X over the long term. And while it does have tremendous volatility, uh we've run so many scenarios and it's a really, really rare scenario where it gets hit and gets wiped out. Like I I don't even know if it's it's possible, but I'm willing to roll the dice. I have part of my retirement portfolios in that last four or five years. Kind of love it. >> [laughter] >> QQQ I love less than that, but hey, I'll put it B tier because you're still getting an aggressive diversified mix of technology and growth stocks, which which how can you hate that? Tesla right now I'm putting it C tier because they're at this pivotal moment when I think the entire future of Tesla depends upon Elon uh locking in and getting this Optimus robot right. And he hasn't yet. Uh I think the entire future of Tesla is in robotics. And I'm quite honestly disappointed with how quickly that project's been moving or how slowly it's been moving the last year. Uh it has not come as far as I thought it would. I think Elon is distracted and all over the place. If they execute on Optimus, I think Tesla could go to A tier, maybe maybe even S tier. If they don't it could move down to D tier pretty quick. Could theoretically be F tier with its valuation in the automotive business. I know it's a hot take. Uh Microsoft, uh listen they're they're hyper uh God, they're deep in the infrastructure layer. I got to give them a I got to give them B because um they're just going to get that spending. They're just in the right place at the right time, but their traditional business is going to get destroyed. So I I can't put them up above B tier because they're one of those SaaS companies that eventually they're going to get they're just going to get destroyed on the SaaS side. But uh on the uh cloud computing and all the AI stuff, it will save them. Lululemon, season to season, I just don't know yet. So I got to throw them in C tier. It's like that's a company I'm either going to be long, short, depending on what the trends are telling me that season. Did they get the right styles in? Are they making the right moves? Are they back in favor? Um you know, they got to continue to go down the right road with men and young people and right now they're just kind of you know, on the flux. Uh, Voo kind of same thing. I mean, it's just like I'll give them I'll give them B tier. Kind of what QQQ. SanDisk I mean, they're I mean, right place, right time, A tier. You're a memory company. I mean, you got tailwinds unlike I've ever seen. People think that home market is going to fall apart. They think there's going to be, you know, new tech. Not in the next 24 months. So, for now, they're A tier. Meta Mhm. I'm going to put them A tier for one reason and one reason only. Meta has so many expenses that they're going to erase the next 2 years as part of this AI efficiency wave. Not as many as Amazon, but Meta has I think 20 to 30,000 people who basically just read uh, post for safety and curation. I mean, they're gone. Uh, I think that's a few billion dollars a year in savings right there. But, Meta has massive efficiencies they will bring into the ad market as long as Instagram remains like one of the world's primary social um, uh, destinations. Meta it will make more a lot more money with a much lower cost structure over the next few years and that targeting with AI is going to get insanely good. >> [sighs] >> ExxonMobil, energy's where it's at right now. But, I don't know that much about Exxon. So, I'm just going to put them in B tier. But, if you're in the energy industry, you're in a really good place right now. Palantir, it's really hard I know. Palantir is one of the biggest trades I've had the last few years. I'm currently out of Palantir because I think the world finally has come to appreciate all the great things about Palantir. You know, I think the future will be good, but can they you know, is it good enough to satisfy the valuation? I I just don't know. I'm going to put them as a in B. Okay. Uh what is a Swatch Group? We'll do C. If if Swatch actually executes on the Crocs strategy, and I think they can cuz AP is like an insane brand. >> Yes. If they now take that collaboration and show the world that they can actually operate it cuz this weekend did not go well for them and get like a few dozen other collaborations over the next 3 to 5 years, they could move up. But if not, I think they die. So that's why they're dead in the middle at C. Well, thank you so much for coming on. Really appreciate it. And for anyone interested in that Swatch AP collab, uh do do the comment. Do the comment down below and we'll go through in the next uh few days. We'll pick a comment. How's that? And we'll reach out to you. On top of that, I will be going into margin. So everyone, if you're a bull, I'm sorry. Consider shorting the market cuz I'm bringing on some margin. Graham, I apologize. >> By the way, I'm not a financial advisor. No, I was just messing with you, but if you really want to do that, go ahead. I actually would I would I would I have beat the market year over year, so let's just see what happens. If I went into margin, guys, I would do it responsibly as we found out in the Money Guy episode as well as this episode. I'm actually a pretty conservative investor, so. I'm excited. >> All right. All right. We'll link to all your info down below in the description. And your Twitter, by the way, which I've really been enjoying. And you've been a part of this group. I'm just going to do a quick shout-out for the Index. It's a kind of mastermind for high-level entrepreneurs, business owners. There's a link down below in the description if you want to join. >> Dude, the guys are insanely awesome in the group. Insanely awesome. I I them. Love them. Such a good time. >> Well, >> thank you for joining that. Really appreciate it. Thank you for watching. Thank you to our channel members, by the way, for supporting the It's so funny. We're just going to keep going. All right. Thanks for watching, guys. Until next time. Until next time.