Money Expert: A $37 Trillion Market Reset Is Coming - Do This Now! | Chris Camillo
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Chris Camillo argues that a massive market reset involving AI infrastructure and sentiment cycles is imminent, yet he maintains strong conviction in long-term investment strategies despite short-term volatility. He addresses recent fears regarding overleveraged AI companies and Michael Burry's warnings about the sector by explaining that these issues represent minor corrections within a much larger historical trend of increasing productivity. Camillo emphasizes that while specific chips or models may have shorter lifespans than anticipated, the overarching narrative of inventing intelligence will make industries significantly more efficient over the next 20 to 40 years. Consequently, he advises investors not to be paralyzed by fear but rather to focus on productive assets and maintain positions in companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Robinhood, and Bloom Energy, viewing market dips as opportunities to buy risk assets when sentiment is at extreme lows. The discussion highlights the critical importance of understanding information arbitrage and avoiding overthinking complex technological shifts. Camillo contrasts his approach with that of Michael Burry, suggesting that while Burry correctly identified issues in the insular mortgage sector, he may be overstating risks in the expansive AI super-cycle which is still in its early innings. He recounts how investors often miss out on massive gains because they sell too early due to noise or fear, citing his own experience with Apple and Robinhood as examples where ignoring short-term skepticism was key to success. For those looking to navigate this environment, Camillo recommends dedicating 15 minutes daily to follow AI developments through accessible sources like the TikTok creator Nate, ensuring one stays on the cutting edge without getting bogged down in excessive detail that leads to paralysis. Beyond investment mechanics, Camillo touches upon the societal implications of AI and wealth accumulation, warning against the "doomsday scenario" where democratized violence and deepfakes could destabilize society by making it impossible to distinguish truth from fiction. He also reflects on his personal philosophy regarding money, defining a "sweet spot" for net worth around $10 million beyond which life becomes more complicated with logistical problems rather than better. To manage the pressure of significant wealth, he established a charitable foundation instead of using traditional trust funds, allowing him to give back efficiently while avoiding legal restrictions against leverage and options trading within nonprofit entities. He shares that his children are largely indifferent to finance now, preferring gaming and sports, which reflects a cultural shift where financial literacy is becoming more accessible but interest varies among the younger generation. Camillo concludes by asserting that this is historically the best time for investors due to the unprecedented scale of opportunity in AI, urging individuals to aggressively invest whatever capital they can gather over the next five to ten years. He strongly advises against investing in restaurants as a primary wealth-building strategy, citing crushing inflation in insurance and operational costs alongside low profit margins after management fees are deducted. While he owns two successful passion projects like Chelsea Corner and Milo Butterfingers that provide tangible joy and community connection, he warns that for most people attempting to start businesses solely for financial gain today is an incredibly difficult time due to rising expenses and legal liabilities. Ultimately, his message is one of optimism tempered with caution: embrace the AI revolution, stay invested through emotional market swings, and focus on productive assets rather than speculative bubbles or fear-driven narratives.
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This is the biggest thing that we will
likely ever see in our lives.
>> The first documented case of an AI
orchestrated cyber attack. AI has
learned to bypass [music] commands when
asked to shut itself down.
>> There's so much doom around this concept
of AI and it just drives me [music]
absolutely bonkers. This is too big
uh to fail. I already
>> I feel like those are famous last words.
Too big to fail. But it was last time
[music] and look how it got saved.
>> You [music] probably saw the Michael Bur
stuff, right? People are freaking out
about the AI infrastructure being
overleveraged. This [music] is going to
be, I think, the biggest thing to ever
happen to humanity.
Chris, thank you so much for coming back
on the ice coffee hour. Really
appreciate it. What we found amazing is
that the last few times you've been on
the podcast, you've been 100% correct.
We had you on and you talked about
buying into the S&P 500. You predicted
the best time to buy and since then it's
been up 35%. You predicted the best time
to buy Robin Hood and since then it's
been up over 200%. You predicted it was
the best time to buy energy stocks
before they went up. Since then, those
are up 1 to 200%. And you predicted AI
and robotics over the last year and have
also been correct. It also seems like
every time we film with you, the
market's going down. You give us some
insights and then we look back six
months later and we're like, "Oh my
gosh, he was completely correct." It's a
lot of pressure for you. So, what's
going on today?
>> Yes. Uh same exact thing, just just
different slightly different storyline
each time. Right. So we we have this
boom bust uh sentiment cycle around AI.
I think primarily because people just
don't really understand AI like it's
just big huge scary thing and so many
people are talking about it being a
bubble right and for investors you know
the market's gone up quite a bit so it
doesn't take a lot to shake it. Um
remember back uh during Deepseek, you
know, Deepseek was going to completely
bust up the entire AI economics model,
right? Uh AI was over because of
Deepseek. I think we lost something like
a trillion dollars of value because of a
misunderstanding
of how models work. Um, deepseek ended
up being a reasoning model. And shortly
after people realized that reasoning
models take like 100 to a,000x
the amount of inference to actually use.
So you know even if you are able to come
up with an a model cheaper um the amount
of compute necessary to actually utilize
that model is massively more than
anything we've ever seen you know up to
that date. So, you know, the market just
didn't understand it. And I think I see
more of that happening today than ever
before in my entire life investing where
investors are just not willing to go
deep and and gain conviction, like
actually do the hard work it takes to
get conviction so that when things like
this happen, they don't get freaked out.
>> But do you think anything could be
different this time? because the market
was at an all-time high and then on the
fear and greed index it hit extreme fear
for the first time ever.
>> Yeah. You have two vastly different
scenarios like when we had you on
initially and that was the first like
tariff scare. I asked what should the
average person do and you said get a
second job [clears throat] do everything
you can to buy risk assets. You also
said this is the dream scenario for
every investor and again you couldn't
have been more correct this time.
However, the markets hit an all-time
high at the same time that the fear and
greed index hit extreme fear and you
have these two convergences that that
just we don't see the market doing well
at the same time that people are very
pessimistic.
>> Yeah. I mean like nobody can predict
what the market's going to do over a
short period of time and that's not what
we're really focused on, right? Like
when I made that comment, it it it was
like I feel that people should be doing
that for the next few years, you know,
not just the next few weeks. So like I
said,
>> they would have been pretty well off
though if they did it for the next few
years.
>> You just have to keep doing it. Like
guys, this is the biggest thing that we
will likely ever see in our life.
Period. End of story, right? Like
there's so much doom around this concept
of AI and it just drives me absolutely
bonkers. Let's just talk about like what
people are freaking out about right now.
Like like right now you probably saw the
Michael Bur stuff, right? So like right
now people are freaking out about the AI
infrastructure companies being
overleveraged and overbuilding and not
doing proper accounting because the
chips they're saying are going to last
and be and be valuable for five or 6
years when in reality people like
Michael Bur are saying they're only
going to be valuable for 2 or 3 years.
Right? So he's saying once the world
realizes that the economic models are
going to fall apart. they're
overspending on things that won't
generate enough value to generate a
return for their cost and that this will
be similar to the mortgage crisis,
>> right? That and that he's like seating
that in everyone's heads. So, I'll say
this, even if he's right, it doesn't
matter. So even if this one cycle that
we're in right now is maybe overspending
on compute that isn't going to last as
long as the companies say it's going to
last in terms of being valuable and
generating income. That doesn't matter
to me because that's just this one
little mini cycle in the AI story.
That's not changing the much more
important larger story which is we just
we're inventing intelligence and over
the next 20 to 40 years
we are going to make all of industry
meaningfully more productive
meaningfully more efficient and when
that happens everyone wins when that
happens all companies become more
profitable right I don't want to use the
word all right like industry generally
becomes more profitable. We're able to
climb out of this kind of cycle of
scarcity that we've been living in for
so long where more people will be able
to get more things that will start to
accelerate. And if that happens, you
have to be invested in productive
assets. Period. like end of story like
like if you have conviction in what I
just said these bumps along the road
whether it's deepseek or whether it's
AGI is going to take 15 years as opposed
to 2 years or you know this this current
generation of chips won't be as
productive as people think they're going
to be that stuff really doesn't matter.
>> Okay. So, you say that we're not able to
predict the short term and we can
predict the long term, but at the same
time, you're also posting screenshots of
your trading account on Schwab of like
call options and and like stuff that
isn't super far out in expiration date.
For those that don't know, a call option
is basically you're predicting a price
will go above a different price by a
certain date. And that is kind of like
predicting the short term. So, how do
you know when to like try to predict the
short term with your call options? or is
that kind of you just see that as a
gamble because I see you making millions
of dollars?
>> Well, they don't always work. The the
this is a cycle that repeats itself over
and over again. Like I said, it happened
with Deepseek. It happened with AGI
maybe being further away than we thought
it was. Now it's the compute. It's
always going to be something else. But
the cycles don't last that long. And I'm
making bets that over the course of the
next few months uh that it will be a
rinse and repeat. and these companies
will recover because the riskreward of
not being invested in these companies is
just it's asymmetric, right? So, could
there be some downside? Yes, absolutely.
But missing out on the upside of the
biggest uh technological cycle that
we've ever seen
in the history of the world, right? it
like like that's an asymmetric risk and
I firmly believe that both institutional
and retail investors will ultimately
decide that they have to be part of that
and and these stocks will recover.
>> So what happened to Michael Bur closing
down his fund? Why did he do that?
>> Well, listen, you know, Michael Bur
seems to have conviction that we're in a
bubble that things have gotten over
inflated and and and maybe maybe he's
partially right. you know, maybe he's
partially right. Um, but he's a weird
guy. First of all, let's just let's just
like take a step back. Remember, he
obsessed over the mortgage bubble for
years and years, and he was really
early. I think the difference between
his historic call on the mortgage
collapse and now is that the mortgage in
industry was somewhat insular. like he
found a problem that once exposed
theoretically there is no way to get out
of it. Whereas with this AI super cycle
that we're in and we're still in the
very early innings. I'm not even sure we
started the first inning. That's how
early we are. There's so many factors
and it's so large um that I think he's
he's in over his skis with this one.
Even if he's right about one piece of
it, this is very different from from the
mortgage sector, right? Like this is the
entire world innovating in a way that
we've never seen it innovate before.
Part of it reminds me of Isaac Newton,
his investing, did you see this chart
was early in on something and sold it
for a really big profit and his buddies
got in a little higher than him and it
went up even more and he says, "I'm not
touching that. That's uh that's too
high. it keeps going up and he says,
"No, I'm not I'm not doing that." It
keeps going up even more. He says, "You
know what? Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I
should be investing." And then he buys
and it goes up even more and he's like,
"Oh, wow. Yeah, I'm glad I didn't miss
out." And then the whole thing collapses
and it shows he sells at the bottom.
Like he lost his whole fortune doing
this. I think the core issue is people
overthink things. Um, all right. So,
like we're all we all have these phones
in front of us. I think I've talked to
you guys about this in the past. You
know, one of my biggest investments ever
was on Apple early days iPhone. When
this phone came out, there were a
million things to kind of talk the phone
down, right? To say Apple's getting over
inflated. When you experienced an iPhone
for the first time, and I've held an
iPhone one in my hand, I was like, "This
is maybe bigger than anything that's
ever happened in my life, and this might
will likely end up creating the biggest
company we've ever seen." So, it's like,
that's all you need to know. Game over.
Like, you don't need to worry about all
the little things. Did he do this thing
right? Is the connection good? Did he
get a good deal with AT&T? That stuff is
like nothing compared to the
overreaching story that this is the most
transformative piece of technology that
has ever been invented in my lifetime
and would completely restructure the way
that we live our lives and and that the
chokeold that Apple would have on all of
us, right? it it was just it's hard to
wrap your head around that and the
financial opportunity for that company.
So I think about AI right now and what's
happening. It's so much larger than this
moment like that. No, nothing worries
me. No blip in the system worries me. No
market correction worries me. They're
all opportunities to me. Every single
dip, every single market bump is just an
opportunity for me. When I checked my
portfolio this morning, today is what is
today? Thursday. Today's Thursday. It
was a horrible day in the market. You
guys can go back and probably see it
since we're posting this in a couple of
days. And I saw my portfolio down a
bunch. I'm like freaking out a little
bit. I'm like, "Oh, okay. How am I going
to make this up? Okay, I got to make
sure the podcast is good for this
Sunday. I got to make the money back."
Then you walk in
>> and you were saying, "Oh, yeah. This
morning, like, you know, I bought I
bought a little bit this morning, too."
And you bought some Bloom Energy. Graham
asks like, "Oh, how much did you buy?"
And you're like, "A million bucks.
casually and then I'm thinking okay
that's got to be okay margin is that
like no just million bucks
>> but it's on margin yes margin so you pay
for it on margin but it's not leveraged
bloom energy it's not options
>> I bought options too but yeah I bought a
million
>> in equity so let's talk about this
morning when you open up your portfolio
for the first time how much were you
down today
>> a few million dollars
>> and what what was the internal dialogue
so if you have people watching right now
where their portfolio is going up or
it's going down. What do you tell
yourself when you when you wake up and
you see you're down a few million
dollars?
>> Why? That's all I care about is the why.
I don't care that the market went down.
I care about why it went down. If
there's new information, if there's
something that I didn't know about
yesterday that I need to learn about
today that is a meaningful risk to my
assets, then I want to know about that
and I'll trade on that. And so I
immediately try to figure out what's
going on. It's it's the Michael Bur
stuff, you know, to some extent. It was
Soft Bank yesterday selling all their
Nvidia, although they're just selling it
because they have no cash and they need
to make a $22 billion investment in OI
before the end of the year. So that
didn't concern me. There's a few other
little things specifically on Bloom
Energy. I contacted my Bloom Energy
analyst who's a one of my best friends
and I said, "Hey, I I don't see anything
on Bloom Energy. Do you? I just want to
make sure I'm not missing anything."
He's like, "No, I don't either." So, I
just bought more. Again, if your thesis
doesn't change and the market takes a
downturn, that's an opportunity, right?
Like as long as your thesis doesn't
change, as long as the underlying
information doesn't meaningfully change,
it's just an opportunity.
>> But at what point do you get concerned?
Let's just say everything drops by 50%
for no real reason. It just drops.
Couldn't consumer sentiment be a reason
in itself that the market's going down
and that becomes self-fulfilling and
then more people start selling and more
people start selling and more.
>> I mean, it doesn't concern me. It
probably excites me more than anything
else if that happens. If if the reason
for it happening is what you just laid
out, which is sentiment and fear, that
excites me. If the reason is because we
found something out that totally
disrupts the thesis that I've been
working on for three and a half years
about AI, that's a problem. That's
something I want to know about. So,
guys, I've been through this. So, I was
a kid, but I lived through the 87 crash.
My family was in, you know, the finance
sector. I was living in New York at the
time. Like, I've been through it in in
2000, been through it in 2008. I mean,
this is to be expected. It's actually so
weird if we don't have days like today.
If we don't have days like today, that's
what concerns me. I'm like, wait a
second. Is like the information that I
know, does everybody already have they
already accepted that? meaning there's
no meaningful degree of uh arbitrage,
information arbitrage between me and the
rest of the world. Right? I like it when
people are coming out with concerns and
fear and you know the polar opposite
kind of uh thesis is mine as long as I
believe mine is stronger.
>> But that assumes that the market is
somewhat logical and the market can be
very irrational and very emotional.
Where does that play in? How long could
the market be trading on emotions for
before eventually logic comes in?
>> Logic will always win. Uh in
historically the market uh trades off of
emotions for very short periods of
times, days, weeks, maybe months. Look
at every market crash. Look at the
recoveries on every market crash pretty
much during our lifetime. It's very
quick. So is whenever it's a fear-based
drop or just confusion,
uh the market generally recovers very
quickly.
>> How do some of these companies justify
their valuations when they're trading at
crazy PE ratios that we haven't seen in
a super long time? Sure, you could say
the company is is good, but it seems
like there's a lot of emotions in there
driving that price up and it's
sustaining it, too.
>> Yeah. I mean, so company by company is
different. I'm I'm right now I'm talking
about the AI story. Could you make a
case that Palunteer is overvalued?
Absolutely. You can you can definitely
make a case. Listen, I exited almost all
my Palunteer, you know, over the course
of this summer on a case- by case basis.
You can make Yeah, they could be
overvalued, but the stocks that I'm
invested in, I don't think are
overvalued. So, I'm not concerned,
right? Like, you know what I'm focused
on? I'm focused on companies like
Amazon. I'm focused on companies like
Bloom Energy that I think are
beautifully positioned to be one of the
primary power suppliers for data centers
around the world and compute over the
next 5 to 8 years. I'm not super
concerned with the companies I'm
invested in.
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Who do you think are going to be the
biggest winners and losers in the AI
race?
>> Well, it's early and we don't fully know
that yet. So, I think one of the big
issues is as investors, we're always
trying to answer all the questions.
We're always trying to figure out
everything all the time at the same
time. And that's just we're just not
capable of doing that. To be a great
investor, you just have to figure out
one or two things. So if you can find
one or two companies that you have
conviction in, that's all that really
matters. You know, for most of the last
year, the companies I had conviction in
were companies like Robin Hood,
Palunteer, uh, and Nvidia, right? So, as
you know, I had levered positions in
Nvidia every week for like 14 weeks in a
row. uh during during the recovery after
the tariffs. You know, going forward, I
still have conviction in Nvidia. I
absolutely now have less conviction in
Palunteer because the world knows what I
knew about Palunteer a year ago. Uh the
world now finally knows what I knew
about Robin Hood a year ago, right? Uh I
do think Robin Hood still has legs uh to
continue to surprise people the next 2
to 5 years. So, I'm still on Robin Hood.
But when we think about this kind of
next phase of the cycle,
um there are 60 or 70 AI companies and I
don't have opinions on most of them.
Okay? Like there's no way for me to get
strong conviction around dozens and
dozens of companies. I feel really good
about Amazon. Okay? I feel really good
about Bloom Energy. I still feel really
good about Nvidia. Um you know, why do I
feel good about Amazon long term? It's
really simple.
Regardless of who the big winners are in
the early stages of AI, who are ultimate
who's ultimately one of the biggest
winners, right? Ultimately, it's hard to
make a case that Amazon isn't one of the
biggest winners long-term from this
massive cycle of intelligence and
automation and robotics. They spent
20 years building out an obscene amount
of infrastructure around the world,
making investments that no other company
would ever even consider making. That
didn't make any sense because you're
making these investments in a very low
margin business. Because everything that
Amazon does on the consumer side,
basically the world's largest retailer
of stuff to humans, is extremely low
margin. Why is it low margin? Because it
takes hundreds and hundreds of thousands
of expensive humans to basically move
these products from one place to
another. The systems are extremely
expensive, right? And so now that we've
developed this intelligence and you
know, you know, the other half of my
world is like this concept of us having
an infinite labor machine over the next
few decades once embodied AI comes to
fruition, which is robots, which is
inevitable. It's just we can debate the
timelines, but it's inevitable. Amazon's
the biggest winner. Yeah.
>> So, like
>> I don't care what happens in the next
few weeks to few months with Amazon. If
it drops, I'll just buy more.
>> Yeah. Amazon's been incredible. I went
to Home Depot the other night to find an
extension cord. I wanted to find a 15t
extension cord outdoors. And I went to
Home Depot and I looked at the prices
and then I went to Amazon and I realized
I could buy the same thing at Amazon for
half the price and it would arrive the
next morning between like 6 and 8:00
a.m. That's insane. So I just went and
bought it on Amazon instead. The other
thing that's interesting with Amazon is
their movies that you could watch and
their shows that you could watch on
Amazon which are incred like Beast Games
was through Amazon. And so them getting
in that media side too I think is
incredible. Not a lot of people think
about that.
>> It's fun but it's not what I really care
about. What I really care about is the
the the infrastructure play that Amazon
has invested in over the last couple
decades that once they're able to
properly,
you know, kind of
tweak the efficiencies in that
infrastructure with automation and
robotics, which is inevitable. I think
Amazon is going to be unstoppable.
meaning like I don't think you'll be
able to compete with Amazon in terms of
your ability to get a product from here
to there.
>> What about the growth possibility
though? Amazon is already such a massive
company that if they doubled they would
be the largest company and if they
doubled like you it would be hard I feel
like to make a substantial return on
Amazon.
>> Not when you use leverage, right? So if
you're [laughter]
if you're using leverage
>> if they go up 10% and you have like
weekly calls on it, then you can
>> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. Yeah. I mean it
doesn't have to be weekly calls, right?
I mean it could be monthly calls. Um it
could be just investing on leverage.
Like that's what I do. So I take big
swings when I have high conviction in in
in in a thesis.
>> So I'm curious, what does your portfolio
then look like right now? You had Dave,
the other host of Dumb Money Live, say
that your portfolio is just insanity.
And I'm curious, you know, like what are
the main stocks that you're super
bullish on and and the swings that you
see?
>> Listen, I I'm going to stay super
bullish on Robin Hood for a long time. I
don't see that position changing anytime
soon. Uh I'm still bullish on Nvidia,
but I'm not levered like I used to be.
That was insane. what I was doing with
Nvidia a few months ago
>> was actually what were you doing
actually kept me up at night. I mean I I
I had
>> I had 10%
of my portfolio
le uh invested in weekly Nvidia options
every single week. Sometimes 15% of my
entire liquid net worth in options that
if it just moves a dollar the wrong
direction it in the next few days it's
disappears. But I had pretty good
conviction that every week it was going
to move in the right direction. And
except for like I don't know maybe one
of those weeks, maybe two, I I hit it
every week.
>> How is that not gambling?
>> Gambling. It's not gambling. It's the
opposite of gambling. Every single one
of those trades was based on a thesis
that was deeply researched, right? So it
was the, "Hey, uh, I see who's flying
over to the UAE next week. I know they
have these meetings. I know exactly what
those meetings are going to be about.
Like it's not hard to like anticipate
what the news flow is going to be once
they arrive in the UAE, once they have
those conversations, once they talk
about the data centers, once the news
starts to put together the pieces about
who's going to be the biggest
beneficiary. Oh my gosh, now we have
this thing called sovereign AI and all
the stuff that Jensen was talking about
is actually becoming real. I mean, every
week there was a different story. So, I
wasn't just randomly throwing my money
in Nvidia calls that week. I had a
thesis related to a very specific piece
of of of information that I felt was
going to get dispersed right that week.
And for the most part, it did and it
worked. So the way that you kind of
balance out your finances is very
interesting. You have your trading
account that you try to build up to a
certain amount like low eight figures
and then from that point you take a
chunk out at the end of the year, put it
in the foundation. And so what would
happen then if your primary trading
account you were wrong on some of these
things? Like how would you build that
back up? Like do you because I don't
think you necessarily have like an
active source of income.
>> I do have active sources. I remember I
have a few restaurants.
>> True. Yeah.
>> Um volatile source of income.
>> But you were just you were you were
lamenting recently I think on X about
how hard it is to be successful in the
restaurant business.
>> It's the hardest. It's the worst. We we
are successful but we're an anomaly. Uh,
I do have another business as you guys
know, Collecton, which is the largest,
uh, you know, Pokemon trade show in the
world. And that's actually an obscene
cash flowing business, and I love it.
So, no, I I I do have income, but for
the most part, you're right. Like, I
generate as much as I can from my
trading account and then I take a big
chunk of it and put it in my foundation
every year. And I have gotten a little
Listen, Dave has known me since I was
13, right? and he's seen me go through
these cycles and I've gotten in some
very squirrely situations in the past
where he's had to lend me money.
[laughter] So, um,
>> he's had to lend you money.
>> Oh, yeah. Yeah.
>> How did that conversation go about?
>> I mean, we were we were younger and it
wasn't a lot of money, but yeah. I mean,
I
>> just a few hundred,000 last week. I I I
had listen I I don't know if I told you
guys this before, but you know, when I
post college, uh you know, I I had taken
cash advances off of every single credit
card that I had, like five or six credit
cards, cash advances. I use those cash
advances to buy options and one stock
that went bad and I I went broke. I lost
every dollar to my name and I was in
debt.
>> How old were you?
>> Early 20s.
>> And how did you get out of that? How
much debt did you have?
>> I didn't get out of it. It was horrible.
I I was I was had no money. My I was
living in LA. My apartment cost $525 a
month. My car was broke down. I was
selling cars at the time. Literally
selling cars at uh Santa Monica BMW I
believe at the time. And uh I was just
completely broke. And then unfortunately
I didn't have health insurance and I got
sick. I got something called Graves
disease which was a thyroid disorder.
And uh I had to move home to Texas. Uh
my parents took care of me and once I
got better, I just started building my
way. But it took a few years.
>> Took a few years.
>> Yeah, it took a few years
>> from one bad stock.
>> Yeah.
>> How much stock was it? How much debt did
you
>> um It was It was
>> It was It was the most incredibly bad
stock to ever be invested in. It was a
stock that ended up having some kind of
fraud and they delisted it while I had
my options. So they they didn't delist
it, excuse me. They froze the stock
while they were investigating
uh the whole thing, the SEC. And because
the stock was frozen while I was holding
my options, my options just expired
worthless.
>> What did you learn then from from that
experience?
>> Risk management is important. Yeah, it
it is important. I was a kid. I I always
tell people like that's when you want to
make mistakes. The only way you will
ever learn these lessons is losing real
money. So, I encourage everyone when
they're young just to actually do stuff,
to invest with their own money because
if you do blow up your account, you are
going to learn that lesson. You want to
learn that lesson when you're really
young and you're investing thousands of
dollars and not millions of dollars and
you don't have a family, right? And you
like that's when you want to do it. Uh
but yeah, I was in debt for many years.
My credit ruined. Um you know, when I
met my wife, uh I was deep in debt. had
no money. Like it was it was it was bad.
But you come out of it.
>> But how did you have the faith to then
go back into the market and do it again?
>> What else are you going to do? Right?
Like like I learned my lesson, but like
my lesson was I had too much
concentration
and I didn't really at the time I wasn't
investing properly. I wasn't investing
the right way. I was investing because a
guy I knew a guy that knew a guy that
said, "Hey, this is a sure thing." First
of all, as we know, there is no such
thing as a sure thing. But more
important than that is you have to do
your own homework. And that's what I
that's why now you know why I preach I I
don't just say that to say that. Like I
say it because I really mean it. When
people try to like copy my trades or
people ask me for my exact trades, I
generally don't release them anymore
because I truthfully do not want to
instill that type of behavior. steal my
ideas, but do your own research and
actually make your own decisions because
these are really important decisions.
You don't want like I don't want to blow
up your account, right? Like that's on
you, not on me. So, I'll share an idea
with you, but you got to go do your own.
>> I got to say when we met Vlad from Robin
Hood completely changed my opinion of
the company. Like I was a fan of Robin
Hood and I have been for a long time.
But meeting Vlad and seeing him face to
face and seeing his excitement about the
company and how passionate he is.
>> He was open to ideas which I thought is
the most important thing. You need to be
able to pivot and hear out other people
and listen to the right ideas and ignore
the bad ones. And we were like Graham
was feeding him some excellent ideas.
And he was like totally interested. He's
like yeah like we kind of working
towards that. And yeah, but it made me
really think that Robin Hood, I think,
has what it takes to compete with the
big people like Schwab, which I think a
lot of people tend to compare them to in
terms of account balance size and number
of accounts and average account, you
know, things like this. Seeing Vlad and
even going to Hood Summit in Las Vegas,
we got invited. Incredible. And you meet
the people there that like, you know,
you see Tesla super fans where they're
like all Elon. I I met those people but
for Robin Hood like a totally different
segment of the market where people are
so excited about Vlad and Robin Hood and
I think he's one of the few people where
after meeting him I was convinced on the
company and we've met other people uh
big investors where immediately after
meeting them like all right listen I I
lost all faith.
>> I will say Michael Sailor was pretty
convincing too. Yes, Michael Sailor was
the only other one that when Bitcoin was
uh 48 $50,000 when we filmed with him
afterwards, I'm like, "You know what,
Jack? What he says makes a lot of
sense."
>> No comment on Michael Sailor. But I will
say this, uh that was the best interview
Blood has ever done. I I I watch that
and he's come a long way. He used to be
terrible at giving interviews.
>> Oh, he was excellent. Yeah.
>> Yeah. I That that was great. Listen, the
the Robin Hood's my number one position.
It became my number one position this
last year. It grew into becoming my
number one position, Eclipse Amazon. And
my thesis has always been really simple.
We have a hundredish trillion dollars
that will get transferred over the next
30 35 years uh to the younger generation
through inheritance and other means. And
that a big chunk of that money is going
to Robin Hood. And and beyond that I
have a second thesis on Robin Hood which
is uh Vlad manages that company like a
startup. There are very few companies in
the world of that size where the founder
CEO is quite honestly has the balls to
to to still manage it like a startup and
to take big risk and to break through
walls and to ask for forgiveness as
opposed to asking for permission. And
Elon is one of those guys. He gets
credit for being one of those guys.
Velad does not get credit for also being
one of those guys. So, anytime I see a
company like that with the capability of
dominating a sector and literally like
like like killing a sector and stealing
all the business, you match that with a
CEO like that, [laughter]
like it's game over.
>> Here's the other thing is that he agreed
to come on our podcast, which a lot of
people don't do. And I think I think
it's dumb not to come on a podcast,
especially like a finance podcast. And
we've we reach out to a lot of people
and we either get a lot of nos or just
never hear back from people that should
be doing podcasts. And we would I think
we'd be doing him a favor by doing a
podcast. And Vlad was excited about
doing it. And walking into his office,
it's it's not like a corporate, you
know, headquart looked like a house.
>> It also was surprisingly not
extravagant.
>> No. I was expecting we were going to
walk into some sort of like crazy huge
headquarters, the classic Google thing
with the slides and, you know, free food
everywhere, buffets and this and that.
It really looked like they were running
relatively lean for how productive their
company is, which I also think is a a
positive indicator.
>> And this is going to be another big one,
their 2.5% crypto match right now. They
just brought it back. I don't know if
it's if it's targeted uh but they had a
2% match when Bitcoin was at $120.
Then they increased it which I thought
was really clever to 2 and a.5% but
Bitcoin is now $100,000. So technically
it's not costing them that much more but
it looks on paper that you're getting
2.5% on a lower amount though but it
looks like 2 and a half% for whatever
you bring into the platform. They're
going to bring in a lot of money to
Robin Hood. The thing that Vlad and
Robin Hood does is they play the long
game. They are playing the long game.
They are in this for the next 20 to 30
years to be the biggest financial
company on earth. I have absolute
confidence that they will be unless
something really crazy happens. Um,
listen, I opened up a Robin Hood
account. Uh, well, I've had an account
for a long time, but I I put meaningful
money into my Robin Hood account for the
first time this year, which was shocking
cuz like I'm just that's not something I
ever thought I would do. Um, I'm old
school, but it was because of the match.
>> Um,
it it was it was the extra little thing
that said, you know what, I'm going to
go ahead and do this because it was that
extra incentive that got me to pull the
trigger. And listen, once you're in that
ecosystem, they do a really good job. Uh
I I by the way, I love I mean the fact
that you can, you know, prediction
markets on your brokerage.
>> Oh man, don't get me startled on that.
>> It it it it's it's huge though because
you got to realize it's not about even
how big of a market that can be. Um it's
about the fact that you can do
everything through one app, right? That
prediction market is great and it's
awful because now every sports game I
watch or go to. I'm I don't want to say
I'm betting. I am placing a hedged
position on Robin Hood in real time
position.
>> That's what they they want. It's not
It's not gambling. How are you?
>> It's like you're hedging a position.
[laughter]
It's definitely gambling.
>> That is by That is not a hedge.
>> It's speculation. There we I'm
speculating on Robin Hood. But what's
funny is that I could watch like I went
to a hockey game the other day and I'm
watching the hockey game at the same
time as I'm watching my Robin Hood
account because I bet on the Las Vegas
Golden Knights and when one team scores
like you see the odds change within like
two seconds it's already priced in.
>> How much did you bet?
>> Uh $100 and I lost it all.
>> But you had fun. I had a great time and
I also bet on the uh Oh, this was bad. I
put money on Quomo in New York because I
thought it would be a closer race and he
was priced when I bought in at like 7
and I knew he was probably going to
lose, but I thought there's I thought
that was underpriced. I thought it
should be more of like he should be a 15
to 20 cent bet and that lost. I just
held the mature bet. that that was
that's a fair thesis that you know
that's my favorite type of investing is
when you see an asymmetric riskreward
um investors like the way our brains
work we're not really capable of
computing that and those opportunities
are out there all the time it's like
okay yeah it probably won't happen but
there's likely a 2x better chance of it
happening than how it's priced currently
so you have to take that even if you're
likely to lose you have to it size it
appropriately
But you do it enough and you will win.
>> But here's the one thing that I think is
worth looking out for with Robin Hood is
that their fees on the prediction
markets are so massive. It almost makes
it not worth it to go through Robin
Hood. But the thing is it's it's so
easy. Like it saves me from having to
drive down to Red Rock and place a bet
when I could just do it on my phone in
like 2 seconds. But the spread between
the bid and the ask and the the Robin
Hood fee you pay adds up to like 10 to
15% a buy and then 10 to 15% a sell if
you sell it before it matures.
>> Okay. So they're I think they're looking
at the long tail of customers who want
to engage in that type of prediction
market as opposed to the professional
gambler right that really cares that
much. For people like me, I don't care.
Like if I want to bet on a game, I I
don't care if I can get a 5% better
margin going to MGM, which I can't even
do in Texas anyway, right? But even if I
could, like I said, it's just easy and
they make it easy and fun. I can go on
there and place a bet like 5x quicker
than I could on a gambling app. It's
just easier. Um, and I think a lot of
people don't want to have a gambling
app. They don't want to have money
inside of a gambling app. that's just
not part of who they are. And I think
Robin Hood is going to end up with
millions and millions of people casually
betting on sports, casually betting on
various things, and that I think that's
fine for them.
>> So, in terms of the AI infrastructure
that's going in right now, what do you
think the impact is going to be on jobs?
Because I've heard a saying that says
that AI is not going to create more
jobs, it's simply going to redistribute
them to fewer people. Yeah, this this is
this is a topic that I love that I think
every most people get wrong. I think we
this will be massively positive long
term for jobs. Just massively. Just just
just play out the scenario. Okay. Like I
in in in what world do we end up
reducing the amount of scarcity and
increasing productivity globally? That
doesn't ultimately benefit uh humans uh
in in in a whole number of ways
including more opportunity and better
jobs and just better life. Will there be
hiccups in the short run? Yes. Um, can
we actually define what jobs look like
in 25 years? Absolutely not. But I want
you to envision a world where AI
continues to accelerate over the next 20
years. You will have a world where we're
going to have millions, if Elon is
correct, billions of robots. What they
look like, who knows? But there will be
billions and billions of robots all
around the world. uh there will be new
industries being formed because we now
have this intelligence that makes
everything so unbelievably easy and
cheap and productive to deliver value or
to start new things. Right? Essentially,
any human on earth can create
entertainment on the fly. Whatever is in
your head, you're able to actually
express without having the skill set of
being able to actually produce music
yourself, right? You have a helper
there. You don't have to be able to
produce a TV show or go raise funding to
produce a TV show. Envision that world
and just imagine how much demand we will
have for humans. How many more products
will we have? How many more machines
will we have that need to be serviced
and delivered and taken care of and
sold? Um, a world with more things
requires
more
work from humans, right? So like I am
100% convinced in this like this is not
even debatable to me. What a job is in
25 years might look very different from
what a job is today. But there will be
more and better jobs as a result of AI
and robotics in 20 to 30 years. Now
again between now and then will we have
hiccups? Yeah. The issue is we can't
foresee how that problem gets solved if
AI moves too quickly and disrupts too
many job positions. But we will fix that
problem. So like like humans, we
we don't fix big problems until the pain
of not fixing that problem becomes
bigger than the pain of taking action.
Okay. So, right now the pain of like
let's just say it was uh increasing
taxes. That's a huge pain. Like we're
not going to increase taxes unless we
absolutely have to for something, right?
If we have 50 million people that are
jobless in 8 years because of AI, do you
not think we're going to resolve that?
Of course, we're going to resolve that.
Because if we don't resolve that, the
pain of not resolving that will end up
be people overthrowing our government
and coming with, you know, picks and
shovels to actually kill us. Okay? So,
that problem will get solved when it
needs to get solved.
>> But don't you think that the government
would then just step in and subsidize
life if you had this massive unemployed
workforce that should be working? Then
that's kind of what we've seen in the
past is like the government steps in
like they've done with education and now
you know housing is becoming less
affordable. So now they've you know
they're thinking about introducing
50-year mortgages.
>> Okay. So the answer is maybe yes it will
get solved. Will the government solve
it? Maybe someone will solve it because
the alternative is so catastrophic
that we would never allow that to
happen. And by the way, not to mention
the fact if AI becomes that great to
displace tens and tens of millions of
workers, probably going to be pretty
great at helping us solve those
problems, too. I have always thought I
mean, not to get too into politics, I
always stay out of politics. You know, I
have some of my very closest friends on
the the furthest right as you can get
and some of my very closest friends are
literally as far left as you can get and
everything in between. And I've just
been this guy in the middle my whole
life. You know, I kind of call myself
like um uh like a radical centrist
because it's like it's I just like to
solve problems. So much of this is about
misunderstanding and miscommunication
and sentiment and and feelings and
people just not coming up with solutions
because we have all these obstacles to
coming up with solutions. AI doesn't
have that. I think AI is going to
actually play a really big role in
helping us solve all of these huge
problems that we have today when it
comes to how do we spend money as a
government because that's what most
people on the right have an issue with.
I don't think billionaires or
millionaires would have any issue paying
more taxes if they had confidence that
the money was being spent appropriately
to help humanity. I really don't. And to
help their neighbors and cuz that
benefits them, right? Cuz those people
are their friends, their family. Um, we
all want the same thing. Most of us want
the same outcome, right? We just don't
know how. We We argue over how to get
there. So, I think AI is going to do a
really good job helping not just
companies become because everyone's
talking about companies becoming more
productive and efficient. Like, it's
going to help governments in a really
big way and no one's talking about that.
And once AI gets into government, which
it it it will, and actually helps
government figure out how to be more
productive with our money, I I think
we're going to see such massive
efficiencies [clears throat] there and
what we can actually do with our tax
dollars to help people. It's one of the
things I'm actually most excited about
about this AI revolution. So,
yes, we'll have hiccups. [laughter]
uh it will not be a long-term problem
and I don't know exactly what the
solution will be or how it will play
out. I just know we'll figure out how to
like like like even out the bumps along
the way, but ultimately we will have
better and more jobs for humans as a
result of this. There's there's like no
doubt in my mind like I would bet
everything I have on that.
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>> China is
racing towards AI superiority. Okay. And
that more than anything else ensures
that the US government is going to
support and if needed backs stop our AI
uh ambitions. Okay. Nothing in the world
motivates
a country to backs stop something and to
support it more than its competing uh
enemy that that that that is pushing
forward on that frontier. So that's
something that I think people don't
fully appreciate. So when we're talking
about AI and all these big investments
like we don't have a choice. Our
government doesn't have a choice. like
even if there is some degree of unknowns
or like hey we're not exactly sure how
this is going to play out the government
is not going to allow the US to fall
meaningfully behind China in this AI
race. So whatever needs to happen,
whether they're government incentives on
AI data centers or energy, whatever
needs to happen, the government is
required
to ensure that happens because this is
the new arms race. Think about it. If
China becomes the country that's able to
produce products 5x cheaper than us,
right? They have intelligence on future
warfare and and weapons, right? and on
vaccines like you can't let China have
AGI you can't let China get super
intelligence like meaningfully before
you have it that's a national security
risk so there is an inferred backs stop
here on the sector which is the
government now the CEOs are not going to
talk about it because
>> Sam Alman kind of
>> he kind of did and it created quite a
stir
>> but it's there guys It's there. We all
know it's there. They all know it's
there. Sam knows it's there. Like all
the big tech CEOs, they all know it's
there. Jensen knows it's there. Um, this
is too big
>> uh to fail.
>> I feel like those are famous last words.
Too big to fail.
>> But it was last time and look how it got
saved. Okay.
uh this this now I say too big to fail
as a sector companies obviously
companies can obviously fail right but
when you look at the infrastructure
sitting behind it the infrastructure
really is too big to fail this
infrastructure might be the most
important thing that our country works
on the next 20 years and we need to
ensure that we are in lock step if not
ahead of China every step of the way you
can love it or hate it but that's just
the way it
Um, and that adds to my confidence level
because there will be moments that will
be really rough along the way. There
will be moments when like today, like
complete freakout moments,
>> maybe way, way worse than today. Um, the
government's going to be there. You
think they're going to let our AI
superpowers just completely fall apart
and let China move forward with AGI and
super intelligence and have access to
all the next generation uh weapons and
warfare.
>> But doesn't that then mean that it's
really going to be the taxpayer who ends
up funding AI
>> possibly?
>> And do you think this is the reason why
they're investing so much right now?
Because they know we can't go belly up
because the government wouldn't let us.
So we may as well take riskier bets
right now.
>> There are a lot of reasons to take those
big bets because again it's an
asymmetrical riskreward. If AI does what
everyone believes it will and again it's
not about us reaching AGI in like 2
years. It could be 10 years 15. It
doesn't really matter. We've already
seen enough. We know where it's headed.
You can't not be part of that. It's just
so so obvious. It's like saying you're
not going to be part of the internet
when it came out. like you know like
listen it didn't cost that much to be
web oriented as a company when that
happened.
>> This just happens to cost more but you
can't just not be part of it. Even look
at what Apple's doing right now right
behind the scenes. You know that like
Apple's trying to figure out a way to
leverage Google to leverage all the
stuff they're doing. You know Apple has
a lot of data for Google. I think this
is what you're going to see really soon.
Apple is going to lean on Google's
models for all their AI. uh the next few
years and I think they're going to get a
great deal for that because Apple has so
much crucial data for Google to share
back. Um I think that's going to be the
deal that plays out. But even Apple
who's behind on AI, they will catch up.
>> Does it worry you about the circular
financing nature?
>> No, not at all. Uh it's what has to
happen. uh the circular financing is a
huge problem if this doesn't work out.
>> So explain the circular financing to
>> so basically I if you're invidia and
you're essentially financing your
customers to buy your own chips
essentially there's a lot of different
ways that it's happening right now. If
your customers go belly up you're taking
the hit too, right? So that's where we
get into trouble. circular financing
could be not such a bad thing if
everything moves in the right direction.
If this whole thing falls apart and
we're not not able to monetize
artificial intelligence at the corporate
level, at the consumer level, if there's
no monetization that eventually comes in
over the next five to call it 8 n 10
years, that's a problem. And that that
Yeah. So, so thi think of uh the
circular financing as leverage. It's
just Nvidia and Jensen have a strong
thesis and they have a lot of conviction
the same way I do and they're willing to
place a little bit of leverage on it.
The way that they're doing that is
they're taking their cash and rather
than just giving their cash back to
shareholders, uh they're spending their
cash to allow their customers to do
bigger and better things with their
chips. That's it. It's nothing. It's not
that scary. I know it sounds scary
because it can. It's leverage.
>> It just looks scary.
>> Okay, so think about leverage. When
things don't when things go wrong, they
go really wrong.
>> But when things go right, they go really
right. And so everyone's making a bet
that they've seen enough. They know
enough. They know directionally where we
are headed, even if there are bumps in
the road, that it makes sense to apply
leverage. And that's where the circular
financing comes in. And I don't blame
them for doing it. Like I I like it.
What's so amazing to me is like you've
seen like what Nano Banana like like
you've seen some of this stuff right
banana the Photoshop
>> well Google and it's the new one's
coming out like literally any day now
you've seen what uh Open AI has done
right with with their with their their
social network right have you been on
there yet with the Sora
>> Sora
>> yeah all the Jake Paul memes are
hilarious
>> but guys this is like not even 1.0 And
oh, like they literally just showed us
the future. Like how do you see that?
How do you see that? See what this AI is
capable of doing today.
>> Okay, but I see that the first thing in
my mind is every actor, every movie,
every production company is going to be
obsolete in 20 years. Like they were
talking about doing a big movie studio
here in Las Vegas and bringing it in
from Hollywood and they wanted all these
subsidies and that got temporarily shut
down. And at first I was like, "Oh,
that's dumb." That think of all the jobs
it would bring here. And then I'm
thinking, you know what? In 20 years
from now, it's going to be a dude on his
computer sitting on a couch who could
create the next Michael Bay movie in 20
minutes for $10. All these movie
production companies are going to be
wiped out. Like, why get a real actor
when you could get the perfect AI? And
when you think about it, when you're
watching something, it's just pixels on
a screen. And when you think if the
pixel coloration is perfect and and the
the way they're laid out on the screen
is perfect, it's going to be identical
and you could create anything that you
want to like, why wouldn't that wipe out
entire industries? And then what you're
left with is all these people who have
trained their entire lives for one
specific thing and that gets wiped out.
What do they do when they're 50 and they
don't have savings and they have to
learn something all over again when
they're entering retirement and they
don't know what to do?
>> Okay. Okay. So, let's let's let's frame
that in a way that that I know you'll
appreciate.
>> Okay.
>> We used to have a media world where all
of the media, all of the marketing and
all the advertising got pushed through
agencies and then got pushed through old
media. And so, if you wanted to
advertise something, that's the the flow
of the money only went one way. And you
had newspapers and you had TV networks
and cable networks. You had radio
stations and they essentially controlled
all of those media dollars.
Now we democratize the world of media
globally through social networks and now
we have millions, tens of millions of
content creators around the world in
every little niche. Those content
creators are delivering messages on
behalf of companies around the world.
Right? So, a big part of that media
world has already been disrupted and has
already been torn apart, right? It's not
what it used to be. Newspapers,
>> they barely even exist. Radio barely
even exists anymore. Wait till you see
what's about to happen to the rest of
that world like TV and Hollywood, all of
it, right?
>> Um, but look at what we created. Do you
not think that what we created to
replace that is meaningfully bigger,
more efficient? And look at the way the
dollars are flowing. they're still
flowing to people. You have a real job,
Graham. Like you are a creator. Like
your job matters. Just because you don't
work at the newspaper that went out of
business 15 years ago doesn't mean
that's any valid less valid of a job. At
the time, we just didn't have the
foresight to understand what that job
was going to look like in the future.
So, in the same way, I agree. I think
Hollywood will change. I don't know if
it will like completely go away um or
how long that will take, but I think
what this is going to create is going to
be meaningfully larger than the system
that exists today.
>> And what's going to happen to the people
who don't adopt it?
>> Well, get left behind or just aren't as
ambitious to pursue these things.
>> I mean, I think you can say that about
any other innovation. If you don't
change with the times, you won't
benefit, right? So if you didn't adopt
computers or if you didn't adopt the
internet right when it came out, uh your
company was likely going out of
business. So yeah, you you you have to
adopt it. That's what I tell every kid.
I I constantly get asked by other
parents like what should I be telling my
kids what what job should they can go
into? I'm like I I don't know about
jobs, but like just get start using AI
every day like like start spending an
like learn all the tools like start
doing cuz this is not going away and
this is not a bad thing. It's generally
a good thing if it doesn't kill us and
it might kill us. I don't know about
that. There is a doomsday scenario
that's like very real, very legitimate
and and definitely something to be
concerned about. Uh as we start to not
only democratize the ability to make
entertainment, but to democratize the
ability to make weapons, to democratize
the ability to do damage in the world,
that does concern me. This doesn't
concern me at all. Like,
>> so what is the doomsday scenario for AI?
The doomsday scenario for AI is ex is
democratizing uh violence like
democratizing the ability to do bad
things because the same way that we can
now do amazing things so quickly so
cheaply and anybody in the world has
access to the information to do those
things you could use these tools to do
terrible things to I don't know create
viruses that we can't even imagine to
create weapons that we can't even
imagine I mean to just do damage through
hacking and various things like you've
seen some of the deep fakes, the deep
fakes alone are exceptionally dangerous
right now that are out there. Like there
was an investor who's very well known
who kind of exposed a you know a a deep
fake of Elon Musk this last week kind of
talking about some political issues and
in his you know this is Bill Aman right?
Bill Aman is known for doing deep deep
research. It it would take one of us
like 15 seconds to realize this was like
AI. He said, "It might be fake. It might
not be." I'm like, "What might?" Dude,
it literally says it's AI if you just
read it, but this is the issue, right?
Like, we don't even know what's real and
not real anymore. There are a lot of
dangerous things that are coming out of
this, but I don't think it's it's the
it's the job issue that everyone's so
concerned about.
>> So, you said it's extremely important to
stay on the cutting edge of AI and to
educate yourself with AI. What are the
best ways to do that? like how do you
apply AI in your own life to better it?
And how if a listener out there wants to
like learn more and adopt AI as deeply
as possible to be able to use that in
the markets, how would you recommend
they do that?
>> First, follow the right people. You
should be spending 15 minutes a day just
catching up on whatever happened in AI
that day. You should do that every day
for the next few years. There's a guy on
TikTok, I think he's on Instagram,
called Nate that mentioned us during our
last show. He's like the Mr. Rogers of
AI and in like 60 seconds he'll tell you
he'll spend 9 hours researching whatever
happened in AI that day and tell you in
60 seconds. So like anyone could
understand the way he communicates. So
that's like the one guy I tell everyone
to follow. I forget his last name. But
if you're younger, you have to use AI.
Like you have to use the tools for
everything that you do. Like there's so
many tools, creator tools. You should be
creating with AI. You should be using it
for your writing. You should be using it
to help you with every single aspect of
your life. Um, there are hundreds of AI
tools. You should be using the top 15 or
20 of them on a regular basis because
that's value. Like this is the new
world. This is whatever your new job is
going to be, it's going to be using AI
as a tool because whoever employs you in
whatever sector you go into is going to
want to get 5 to 10 employees out of
you. And you need to be able to show up
to that interview and say, I can produce
and I can produce 10 people of work
because I'm that good at utilizing AI to
make myself more productive in every
single facet of everything that I do.
And based on that job description, here
are the eight tools that I'm going to
use so that you're hiring 10 people
instead of hiring one person when you
hire me. Like that's what I would tell.
Like I I can't speak to the job, but
like no matter what the job is, I can
almost guarantee you that you can
utilize that approach. And what do you
tell your kids to make sure that they're
prepared to go into the workforce and
make their own living?
>> Pretty much don't tell them anything
because they don't listen to anything I
tell them. So, I don't even try anymore.
I try to get other people to tell my
kids. I don't know. But not me.
>> Why not? It's funny because this episode
will get a few hundred thousand views
and every person will be listening
intently at every word you say.
>> Except for my kids.
>> Your kids just like my kids are now at
an age they're 15. You have to put
Subway Surfer on the lower half of this
and make it like a vertical. Have you
seen those like the brain rots
where it's up?
>> Yeah. You have like some video playing
on the lower half and they can
>> I hope you guys get to experience this
for yourself someday. But but there is
nothing that you can do to win the
approval of your kid. There's just
nothing that you can do. At least not at
this age when they're in high school. So
like my kids bring friends over to the
house and their friends are starting to
come over to me like, "Mr. Camilo, we
saw your video. I love this. I love
this. I like like they're watching.
They're learning finance. They're
learning stuff and like my kids nothing.
Nothing. They won't they want nothing to
do with it. And I'm totally fine with
that. [gasps]
Um
>> that sounds like an act though, right?
Like if their buddies come over and
they're like, "Could we get an
autograph?" And the kids are like,
>> I am I am just a big I'm just a big
idiot for them.
>> Are your kids?
>> No, no, no. Their their friends are
legitimately watching. Like you know
what? You know what's shocking to me? I
was such a finance nerd when I was a
kid, but I was the only finance nerd
maybe in the whole world at that time.
This is going back to the late 80s, you
know, early 90s. Now, like, yeah, I told
you guys story. I used to like touch
tone trade options trading at college in
the basement of SMU on a on a pay phone
and it would take me 20 minutes to place
one trade. I mean, now these kids are
12, 13, 14. They're studying trading.
Like, dude, that is actually a good
piece of information right there. Like,
for Robin Hood. Yeah.
>> Like, if that doesn't get you psyched on
Robin Hood, I don't know what will
because being like this gritty having
like a like like a like a side gig, like
investing is part of the culture of
being young now, especially for young
males. And it's like a cool thing. If
you don't do it, it's almost like, wait,
you're not doing this. You're not
trading. You know, it's an interesting
concept. A lot of people talk about what
age to give their kid a phone. At what
age do you give your kid the access to
invest?
>> I wanted my kids investing when they
were way younger. They just wouldn't
they wouldn't take on to it. They just
they just wouldn't do it. So, I started
accounts for them. I'm I'm crushing it
in their accounts. [laughter]
>> They're doing great,
>> dude. They are up 5x in two years since
I started their accounts. Yeah.
>> But um
>> and they don't care. They don't check
it.
>> They don't want to know how much money
they have.
>> They don't even care about I mean my
daughter care. My son doesn't even care
about money. He's just he he he he plays
football. He plays Madden when he's not
playing football and he he plays guitar
and sings country music. He just doesn't
care about money.
>> You pay for him when he goes out with
his friends and he wants to go get a
lunch. Do you fund his life?
>> Kind of. because
>> with with with limits with reasonable
limits, right? So, and that's a parent
problem. You always you're always kind
of kind of arguing with yourself over
what's appropriate, what's not
appropriate. Uh especially if you live
in a wealthy neighborhood and you have
to have that balance of we chose to live
here and this is how people live. These
are the restaurants that the kids go to.
These are the things that they do. And
like you don't want your kid not to be
able to engage socially and culturally
in in the world that you move them into.
So you you have to make that choice as a
parent that hey like you have to have
balance like so yeah you kind of have to
to some extent like the thing that I've
talked against my whole life which is
trust funds. I think trust funds are
like the most evil terrible thing that
like you just can never do a trust fund
for a kid. But now the world is
changing. Our world is changing to the
point where no one used to talk about
trust funds. Now it's like you have a
hundred trillion dollars that are being
transferred. Will there become a point
in the next 10 years? I think there will
be where if you are a kid that is coming
into the world in their 20s with no
money and maybe just a bunch of debt
from college, you're not starting at the
same level as everyone else. You're
starting like 10 levels below everyone
else. So, does having some sort of
nominal starting point become just the
the absolute norm over the next 10
years? I know it sounds crazy, but but
like so the house next to me is for sale
right now in my neighborhood and I'm
friends with the real estate broker and
I'm like, "Hey, you sell it yet? Like,
tell me who's moving in? Like, who's
looking at it?" And then I'm like, "It's
so expensive." I'm like, "Who can afford
to buy these homes now?" cuz when I
bought my home, it was 4x cheaper, you
know, 12 years ago.
He's like, "Let me tell you something.
Every single person I've shown that
house to is getting money from their
parents. Every single one." He goes,
"There's not one person that's looking
at that house that's not getting help."
So, it's just like it's become like a
norm.
>> I sold my house recently, actually, in
LA. It was the same situation.
All multiple there were multiple offers
on it but all were receiving assistance
from their parents and their parents
wanted to give their kids either a leg
up or you know big milestone events the
kids are getting married something like
this and here's a house and I think
that's going to be a lot more common for
parents to pay for a house than
education like instead of going to
college let me help you out with the
down payment for a house and now you got
a place to live
>> I totally agree I think this is going to
get so much worse and it's going to
create a huge cultural issue with the
halves and have nots. Everyone's
complaining because they don't have the
money to do this. They can't buy a home.
They can't get ahead or you can if you
have help. And there are there's just
two people now in the world. That's just
what we've become. That's just how our
country has evolved. There's been so
much wealth accumulated that things are
becoming so expensive because of the
people that have it. So, if you're
starting out and you don't have that,
you're in trouble.
I hate it. Like, I I I don't have a
solution to that problem.
>> Yeah. How much money should you leave to
a child?
>> I think about this all the time now. So,
I'll tell you what I did. Uh as opposed
to starting a trust fund, I started a
foundation
and I want to grow the foundation to be
infinitely large, hopefully a billion
dollars someday. It's kind of like my
little goal in my head. What's so
amazing about a foundation is you can
run the foundation and you could take a
small salary. The government actually
regulates what you can take from a
nonprofit. So you can pull some expenses
for your health care. Uh you can pull
expenses for managing the the
foundation, but it has to be nominal. I
love that model because if you start a
foundation or maybe start two
foundations if you have two kids, you
could put them each as the administrator
for each of your foundations, you don't
have to have this trust where you have
an attorney that's approving things and
you're having to make all these hard
decisions. You know that they would
always in a worst case scenario be able
to take a nominal salary and get health
insurance from that foundation. And the
beautiful part is you tell them the goal
is to never take money out, but if you
need to, you can legally. And it just
lives on forever and it lives on for
generations hopefully. And it grows. And
the great thing about a foundation is it
grows taxfree. So once that foundation
starts to go, you have to distribute 5%
of the foundation every year to
charitable causes to 5013s. But the
foundation's always getting larger and
larger. So you it's kind of like having
a trust, but you're involving your kids
in something that's productive,
something that's giving back to the
world, and you know that they will
always be capped. So for your
foundation, is that where you get the
20,000 to 60 million thing in your bio?
>> No, foundation is separate. I started
the foundation like 3 years ago, so it's
it's relatively new.
>> So what's the 20,000 to 60 million?
>> That's just my brokerage account.
>> That's just your personal brokerage
account.
>> But then you transferred most of that
over to the
>> Yes. So, so I transfer basically excess
capital every year into my foundation
>> and then the money in the foundation you
also invest that.
>> Yes. Unfortunately, I legally I learned
this the hard way. I'm not allowed to
invest on margin or options in the
foundation.
>> How do you learn that the hard way? So,
I open the foundation and I get the
account and I'm really pumped cuz like
I'm going to like, you know, I'm going
to grow this account like I grow my
account, you know, like we're going to
have the biggest foundation ever. Um,
and how lucky is this foundation to have
me managing the money? And and we do we
we crush it. like I'm doing really well
and my CPA sends me my tax bill and
there's like I think a $20 and some odd
thousand penalty fee. I'm like what is
this for my foundation?
And he was like, "Oh, you can't trade on
leverage. You can't do that any of that
stuff in a foundation. If you do it, you
have to pay massive penalties." So like
I just didn't know. I think I made more
money off of doing that than the
penalties I paid, but
that Yeah. So would you then do it
anyways if you're super bullish on a
trade?
>> Yeah. What if your conviction is so high
that the fee is going to be so small
compared to what you could make?
>> I'm actually when it comes to like like
the law and ethics, I'm like super
conservative. So once I realized I'm not
allowed to do that, I haven't done it
since. Like one day I had like just like
few hundred over it was it tapped into
margin. I freaked out and like I covered
it. So no, I don't I don't want to mess
around with that. But yeah, they so I I
do manage the foundations account but
unfortunately no margin and it is
frustrating not to be able to use more
and it's frustrating not to be able to
use options. You know my style of
trading is you know a few times a year I
get really high conviction around a
piece of information and I I want to
make the most of it right and that's how
I make my year. You don't generate 70
some odd percent returns annually over
20 years which is where I'm headed right
now just investing without leverage. you
have to apply leverage.
>> So, what's the reason behind using
options trading instead of buying a
leveraged ETF for a stock like Robin
Hood?
>> Well, I mean, they're pretty much the
same thing if they offer that, right?
But I I can get more leverage.
>> The leveraged option though, it you
know, it's not technically expiring, so
it wouldn't go down to zero
for the for the leveraged ETF.
>> Yeah, but I want to maximize my leverage
around a thesis. And that's why you do
weeklys as opposed to But you still do
leaps like you do long.
>> I never do leaps. I Okay.
My trading methodology all revolves
around an information window. So it it
all depends on when I believe the
information that I'm trading on will
become widely disseminated to the to the
market. So if that's 3 days from now,
then I'm trading a weekly. If it's 3
weeks from now, I'm trading a monthly.
Yeah. If it was like 6 months from now,
I guess I would trade a leap, but that
rarely happens, right? So like I I I I
the trade is defined by the information
that I'm trading.
Like it all dep like when I traded the
Barbie movie, my thought was that going
into the release, all the hype would
happen and then Mattel would move up,
right? When they realized that Barbie
was going to be a successful movie that
was centered around their biggest toy.
So, I bought options that expired on the
Friday of the movie release and I
actually exited my position before the
movie actually came out based on all the
good reviews it was getting that week.
Right? So, you have to frame the trade
around when you think other people are
going to come across the information
that you came across early that will
cause that stock to directionally move
in the direction you you think it will.
>> Who would you say are the best CEOs that
are out there right now? Jensen for
sure. Vla at Robin Hood, Sam Alman
as a CEO, maybe not as a person, okay?
Like I know he's a controversial person.
Uh and by the way, I I I do think the
best CEOs are often kind of psychotic,
right? Like they're not normal people. I
would not be a great CEO at that level.
Like I like spending a tremendous amount
of time [sighs and gasps] with my kids,
with my dog, having coffee, with
friends. like I don't want to spend the
rest of my life continuing to level up
in that manner. Uh but Sam Alman is a
complete nutbag and like that's who I
want running OpenAI. Uh if I'm invested
in Open AI because he is a guy that's
going to do whatever it takes. He's
going to make sure that OI doesn't leave
any chips on the table, you know, like
he's going for it all.
>> Do you think Openai will ever go public?
>> Absolutely it will go public.
>> So why why Oh, it has to. Yeah, they
they need the money. They they need
liquidity. They need more capital.
They'll continue to need more capital.
They they'll go public as soon as they
determine that that's the next trunch of
capital that's required and they should
go public.
>> Yeah, it'll be a trillion dollars. More.
Do you think it'll go more than that?
>> The biggest IPO?
>> It'll be the biggest IPO of all. I've
been saying this for two years. People
thought I was nuts two years ago when I
said this. Uh two years ago I said it'll
be a trillion dollar IPO. And I still
think it will be, but I think it could.
I think on IPO day I it could be closer
to two trillion than one trillion with
the way it trades. We'll see if I'm
right about that. I know that sounds
insane.
>> Yeah. How soon until they have ads in
SHA GBT when it starts recommending like
oh this uh you go go to this local
McDonald's here if you want a good place
to it it has to have ads. Um
it just has to and it will he doesn't
like ads but it will have ads. They So
OI did a deal with Shopify. That's a
really big deal, right? Because like
doing that deal with Shopify means that
they will merge the worlds of commerce.
that listen as an Amazon investor my
biggest uh tail risk right now is OI and
Shopify because I if OI comes out and
actually has like a 60 to 70% consumer
market share of AI using that app and a
lot of that commerce ends up getting
pushed to a Shopify model that could be
a little bit of an issue for Amazon at
some point but I'm not worried about it
that's like years years out
>> we like Shopify a Shopify has been a
great sponsor of the channel. For the
record, we use Shopify. Thank you,
Shopify, for sponsoring this episode.
>> Yeah, I I didn't even Well, I did kind
of know that, but I wasn't thinking
that. [laughter]
Um, that's a big deal for Shopify,
though.
>> Didn't OpenAI also do a deal with
PayPal.
>> Yes. I don't know as much about that
deal.
>> They announced a deal and immediately
PayPal went down.
>> Did they?
>> I don't know much about that. Okay.
>> I think um listen, they have like a
billion people using ChatGpt. It's
incredible. By the way, I don't know the
degree to which you guys use AI, but
like I'm so addicted
>> all the time.
>> Like, and this is the thing. Like,
again, I'm going to go back to the
iPhone moment. There's no doubt in my
head. My conviction is 100% that AI is
as big or bigger than what 95% of the
people in the world think it is. I use
it. I see it. I can't get away from it.
I can't even imagine going back to a
world without it. Most of the world is
just living to survive. Okay? Like the
people concerned about job loss like in
the first world like most people are
just trying to survive every day. And
like when we talk about that like we do
not want these jobs for our future
generations. Like do you really want
someone doing physical labor for 45
years of their life? Do you know how
many people do not get to spend quality
time with their family during those
crucial years because they're working 60
70 hour weeks? That is not what we want
for humanity. Will we have disruption
that will happen the next decade?
Absolutely. Do we need to do everything
in our power to try to help those people
that are getting displaced temporarily?
Absolutely. We need to figure that out.
But that aside, this is going to be the
I think the biggest thing to ever happen
to humanity because I think 30 years
from now, a lot of the people in this
world will get to live a life similar to
mine, which is I never missed a soccer
game, never missed a basketball game or
a football game and my kids. Like when
I've been fortunate enough to be
financially independent because I've
been an investor my whole life. And when
I show up to the soccer field, there's
usually one other dad because it's a
4:00 game. It's so hard to get who gets
off of work at 4:00. It's impossible. So
you get a bunch of moms, not even all
moms cuz sometimes you have both people
work, right? And so like I'm at these
games. I'm like this is I'm so
fortunate. Like I've gotten to see every
single piece of my kids' life and almost
nobody gets to do that. We could be
entering an age of abundance and people
talk about age of abundance like we're
going to have all this nice stuff.
That's not what it's about. It's about
becoming a civilization to where people
get to engage deeply with their family
and friends and get to actually
experience all of life. Like we forget
that most people literally spend their
whole life in a cubicle or in a
warehouse, right? Like that's
>> we're in a warehouse,
>> you know, well by choice.
>> A really cool warehouse.
>> But no, like like that that is
meaningful. Okay, we're going to bridge
the entire rest of the world into like
this wonderful life hopefully when we
get rid of scarcity and we have food and
shelter and and things for everyone so
that you know what your job can actually
be somewhat creative. Wouldn't that be
cool if everybody could have somewhat of
and I don't mean like an actual creative
job, but to actually have do something
in your life that you actually enjoy. I
enjoy what I do. Most people don't.
Like, who's to say that we can't create
a civilization where most people get to
do something enjoyable for their life?
Why not? I think AI is going to help us
get there. You know that doctor's
appointment you were supposed to make a
while ago, the one that's been sitting
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Do you think that AI will have any
strong effects on the housing market or
have you not considered that too much?
>> Everything will get uh easier to produce
and cheaper to produce in time
>> which will decrease the price uh of
housing.
>> It will decrease the price in housing. I
think the thing that AI will also do
like right now, uh, do you ever watch
those home shows, you know, like they've
been going on HGTV for the last 20
years,
>> the renovation shows?
>> Yeah.
>> Or or like like just you you go in a lot
of homes, right?
>> Yeah.
>> Most people's homes
>> are designed like I would have designed
them when I was 13 years old, which by
the way is still how I would design a
home today cuz I don't know any better.
Most people cannot afford to hire
designers and all that stuff. Now look
what HGTV did it. Now people at least
have a visual into like, oh, I'm going
to try to replicate that on my own. AI
is going to help people live in better
places, right? Like it's going to help
them design their rooms. It's going to
help them to dress better. Most there's
so many things that AI will improve. AI
is helping people improve the way that
they speak and communicate via email.
Like I used to sit over an email for 45
minutes to frame one paragraph. Now I
just write it like junk and AI makes it
look beautiful in two seconds. Like
everyone's a great communicator now.
Like I if everyone has the capacity to
engage with the world in a professional
manner because of AI like you can just
take that with everything with homes
with fashion. Like everyone will have
the capability to like actually express
themselves their whatever their
creativity is in their head. If they
have a song in their head they'll be
able to make it. If they have a show
that they want to make, they can do it.
If they want to like they want to be
dressed better, but they don't really
know how,
>> uh, AI will help them. Uh, they want to
have a beautiful home, that stuff
matters, okay? Like they want to have a
beautiful home, but they can't hire a
designer and they don't know how to do
it. AI is going to help them do that. It
will also help them build homes cheaper
and better. By the way,
>> what about in the short term for helping
home affordability? They just floated
the 50-year mortgage. They also floated
mortgage portability to be able to take
it from one to another, which I I person
I never think that's going to be able to
happen. But what are your thoughts?
>> I mean, the 50-year mortgage, it's it's
dumb. I mean, it's optional. On paper, I
think the 50-year mortgage
can be good. I think I come from a
premise of we should borrow all the
money we can at a low interest rate and
reinvest it at a higher rate. And that's
been my life. I think that's like the
the financial pyramid of life. Uh is
people that give their money away and
then other people take their money and
make more money with it. So I like the
idea of people able of people being able
to actually just take out big loans at
low guaranteed interest rates by the
government. But the problem is most
people won't do that, right? They're not
going to reinvest that money. they're
just going to take out a bigger loan and
they're never going to get equity from
it because people
have bad habits. [gasps]
So, I think long-term it will be
detrimental and I I I would I hope it
doesn't happen.
>> It seems like people are getting very
fed up with the system. I think New York
was a prime example of this. Mammi got
elected that it's a it's a sign that a
lot of young people feel like they're
priced out of the market. They're priced
out of the housing market. incomes have
not kept up with expenses and so it
seems like they're looking for any sort
of solution that's out there. Do you
think there is a solution?
>> No, I don't think that's the solution.
The solution is to build more houses if
anything. We all know what the Everybody
knows the solution. Build more houses,
right? Like we know what the solution
is. We just got to actually do it.
>> But why do they make it so hard to build
more houses?
>> I mean, people don't want the houses
next to them sometimes, right? Like
nobody wants a forplex next to a single
family home. Also, you have all kinds
of, you know, safety thing. I mean,
look, look at all the stuff we build
into a house for safety that gets like
taken off right away, you know, like you
have to have a banister here and then
you take it off or you have to do this.
Like, we become overregulated. It's just
what happens in a mature society. We
become overregulated. Things become
overly expensive. And I'm not sure how
we back out of that. Honestly, I don't
have the answer for that other than uh
boomers have too many houses and maybe
we maybe we tax
having more than one house in a
different way.
>> You know, Las Vegas does it really
interesting. So, in Las Vegas, you could
have one property is a primary residence
and on that primary, you have to claim
it every year, the property taxes are
capped and they don't go up more than a
certain amount. But on an investment
property or a second or third home,
whatever it might be, if it's not your
primary, they could increase your
property taxes at a much higher rate. So
instead of it being a 2% increase, they
could increase it 6%. Let's just say it
seems like a a fair system overall.
>> I think the big issue with taxes again
is that we don't spend the money, right?
So no one wants to pay more taxes
because you don't feel like it's going
to be spent correctly to help people.
But if you have to have more taxes, I
can wrap my head around the luxury tax
thing. I really can. Whether it's a
second home or certain items, uh, or
beyond a certain degree, maybe that's
part of the solution. But again, what
are you going to do with that money?
>> Nothing.
>> Exactly. [laughter]
>> It's going to go No, it's going to go
into the abyss. My god, it's going to
get squandered.
>> I always thought it'd be cool. I I think
about taxes all the time and like I w if
I had like nine lives, I would
absolutely be a politician and try to be
a Mr. Smith goes to Washington for one
of them. I'd probably get crushed
immediately. I had this I had this idea
like what if you had like we call I have
this billionaire tax or millionaire tax,
right, that everybody hates and I hate
it too. But what if you had that tax at
whatever level it gets kicked in at and
you give control over how that money
gets spent by the consortium of those
that pay into it. So it's a government,
let's say for New York, New York puts
this tax into place. But if you're
paying into that tax, we're only going
to use that money to do something really
great that we can kind of all agree
would be a great thing, a problem that
we could solve. But we're going to allow
almost like you get votes with how much
you pay. You guys who are all pretty
smart because you're all billionaires,
millionaires, etc., right? You have
control over how that program works, how
it gets managed, how you deploy the
capital. So, let's do something great
for our city with your money, but we're
going to give you control because we
know that you guys will do a better job
with it than us. And instead of like
coming down on billionaires for being
billionaires, why don't we like give
them credit and be like, "Hey, we need
your help." Like, like we need your
help. That's a great idea. I know you
like that idea, but I feel like that
you're going to have billionaires that
just end up having political power that
are going to then put like homeless
shelters, you know, or like highdensity
housing way off in the boondog
>> or they're going to be like this area
here, our money is going to this park
and we're going to make this the nicest
park and we're going to put this nice
art piece in the center.
>> No, you have to you have to have you
have to have in a you have to have a
framework. You have to have parameters,
right? Uh you have to have objectives.
And I think if you did it like I think
public private partnerships are really
interesting like Bryant Park in New
York. I don't know if you remember
Bryant Park before it was a public
private partnership but what they've
done with that park is so outstanding.
It's a place that we go to every time we
go to New York. Do you know they have
like one of the cleanest bathrooms in
the city? It's safe. It's clean. It's
fun. The park generates income. Uh it's
this like beautiful display of a public
private partnership as opposed to other
parks that just kind of spiral down and
then there's no money to take care of
them, right? They were like, "How can we
make money from the park and then use
the money to make the park better?" I
think there's a solution. Now, it's not
an easy solution, but I bet you AI can
help us solve it, right? Like, it's
there's something there. And again, I
truly do believe we're all talking about
AI making all these companies more
productive and these we're going to have
new industry and one employee is 20
employees now with AI. [clears throat]
Is there a reason we couldn't do that
with government? Why couldn't we make
government way more productive, way more
efficient? Like, why can't we make
government great with AI and we can kind
of eliminate all the political banter
and all the fighting? like there's a
solution to government in AI somewhere
and I know it's coming for us and I'm
super excited about it. I hope we don't
resist it too much. And I don't think
that we can because other governments
will like
will take advantage of that opportunity
and then it becomes a thing like oh if
your government's not using that you're
going to get left out, right? You have
to have an AI assisted government.
They're tools, right? They're literally
just tools. Like our government, let's
be honest, operates a lot better today
with computers and the internet than it
used to. I have to say like there's some
like government payment methods with
like my driver's license and stuff that
for the first time ever.
>> It's like really easy to renew.
>> Oh, I just renewed my passport.
>> I for it was a pain in the ass to do
like 10 years ago. This took me 5
minutes to do online and I uploaded my
own photo.
>> Yeah, it took them like 15 years to
figure it out, but they finally figured
it out and it is better. It is helping.
AI is moving like a 100x faster than the
internet. So if we can start to bridge
those two worlds together, think how
amazing it would be if we had like a
really efficient, productive,
hyper inelligent government. How cool
would that be? Like how many problems
would that solve? I always thought it
would be interesting to have someone
campaign under the idea of I'm gonna let
like some sort of open-source AI large
language model or something decide on
policy for me.
>> Well, I think it would be interesting
>> with the amount of mistakes it makes.
>> Well, if it was The thing is it it's
better. We're early. [laughter]
>> I I may not mean right now, but at some
point in the future, that could be kind
of interesting because I feel like it
could prevent a lot of more catastrophic
things that have happened such as like
when, you know, Trump wheeled out like
the tariff board and he showed it and it
was like crazy tariff percentages. I
don't think that's something that AI
probably would have cooked up.
>> Maybe it did cook it up.
>> No, no. No, you're not wor.
First of all, better prompting will
solve most hallucinizations, right? I
feel like and and in an agentic world
and the ability to fact check itself and
to validate information, like we're
going to solve all the issues that we
have issues with today when it comes to
AI hallucinizations, not being able to
trust it. But you're right. I mean, AI,
even at the person level, the voter
level, it will that's coming. There's no
doubt that's definitely coming. Uh, but
I'm more interested in just at the
government level generally like like
let's let's have AI figure out how to
get these parties working together to
solve problems. You almost like you need
a mediator.
>> Mhm.
>> Right. Like there's no mediators in
government. You just people fighting.
Um, and that really sucks. Like that's
what really depresses me about politics
right now. I was on a Zoom a couple
years ago. Uh, one of my friends uh,
dads is like one of the big guys in the
Democratic party and he's very old and
he was telling stories of how it used to
be when they would have leadership of
the parties just fighting to death for
like days and days on end over policy.
And then he would host dinners at his
house and they'd come to dinner and
they'd have wine and they'd spend all
night talking and riffing with each
other. and then the next few days they
would somehow come to an agreement. And
he goes, "It's really sad because that
doesn't happen anymore at all." Like you
do not have Republicans and Democrats
having a dinner at somebody's house,
just hanging out, talking about kids,
talking about stuff other than that
policy so that when they get back into
the chamber, they're all of a sudden
they see each other as humans and
they're like, "Come on, let's figure
this out." Like that's that's sad. So
like it, you know, maybe we need AI to
kind of be that mediator.
>> What happened? Because that because that
always does help when you get face to
face with someone. It's different.
>> It always helps. I when someone leaves a
bad review at our restaurant, I always
say like, you know, back when I don't do
this anymore cuz it just drives me nuts.
But like if I could just talk to them,
just talk to them, right? and be like,
"Hey, you know, we have we have 65
employees, kitchen workers, people
working for next to nothing. Servers, we
come to work every day and just to make
you happy and we're trying our best.
We're getting we're getting cut a
million different ways every day. Like,
there's nothing but problems in the
restaurant industry." I was like, "We're
trying really hard. We're sorry, you
know, we screwed that up for you. Let
let us make it up. But like we don't
have to like go to war with each other
cuz you had a bad meal or something. Um
but over yell they could they just go
off, you know, cuz like they don't have
that they don't have that like person to
talk to on the other side.
>> What do you think is going to happen if
the Trump tariffs are declared
unconstitutional
or they're shut down by the Supreme
Court? Do you think there's a chance of
that happening?
>> Yeah, I think it's more likely than not
that it happens. And then what happens
to all the money that's been paid into
it already? How do you coordinate
refunds?
>> This is why I bought E.L.F. Cosmetics on
the dip hoping that that happens and you
know they get some of that tariff tariff
money back.
>> But how do they get it back? Who's going
to refund them? Who's going to
coordinate? Here's how much you paid, I
get it back. Is that just on like a tax
filing? That sounds more complicated to
give it back at this point than just to
say, "Hey, you know, we're going to stop
tariffs from this point onwards, but
what you paid in is going to go into a
fund." And
>> knowing how the government works, I
would imagine that the government will
put that onus on the taxpayer
to tell them what was paid in tariffs to
then show the proof that that was paid
and then they get to deduct it going
forward. They always put the onus on us.
So, I assume that's how it would happen.
um you know they're not going to
automatically pay back. They're going to
hope that you don't care or you forget,
right?
>> So you're saying if I ordered a couch
and I know I paid a higher price because
of the tariff, I could claim on the
couch that I paid an extra 10% and that
should be a write-off.
>> I don't know if they would do it at the
consumer level or at the company level.
>> Probably the company level.
>> Um but if they do it at the company
level, the company certainly would have
the ability to then refund you. So, but
I would imagine they would probably put
it on the company to say, "Hey, how much
was paid in tariffs? Let us know." It
becomes a big cluster for the company
then because they have to do a lot of
admin work to then reimburse you. Right.
>> So, do you think that's why Trump
promised the $2,000 stimulus checks from
tariffs in that it might place more
pressure that if the Supreme Court says,
"No, this is unconstitutional." Trump
could then say, "Guys, I promised you
the money. It's not my fault. as the
Supreme Court places maybe a little more
burden on them to vote in favor of it.
>> I think the two things are definitely
attached cuz he announced it right
after. I think part of it is like, hey,
we made all this money from tariffs. Now
we're going to give it back to you so
that the Supreme Court is like, oh,
there's no money left to refund so that
if they rule in that way, you're
essentially having to do a massive
stimulus, which would be terrible by the
way, very inflationary. That could be a
disaster. Like if he pays the $2,000 and
then on top of that they have to print
more cash to pay back all those tariffs.
I mean I can trade around it, but I I
think that's generally a bad thing in an
inflation. It's the exact thing that
we're trying to get ourselves out of.
We're trying to stop this inflation
cycle, right? Like I don't think we need
to just be handing money out in that
way. I think what we do need to think
about doing right now, and I hope
someone's thinking about this, if not,
maybe AI can think about it, is I think
we need to start some sort of a fund for
AI displaced workers. Like there needs
to be something there. We might need to
have some emergency procedures in place
to allow people to claim unemployment
for longer periods of time. If we do get
into this vicious cycle where we have a
period of time and people are displaced
and not able to get trained up for new
jobs quick enough,
>> what I think they should do is put money
into a fund that is used towards
education of AI so that if someone loses
their job to get unemployment for longer
than 6 weeks or 8 weeks or 10 weeks,
however long, they have to go through a
training program of AI to be able to
learn something new and that should be
free.
>> 100%. Absolutely. Do you know how many
people resisted computers back in the
day? How many people resisted the
internet? I I I remember back in the
late 90s, so many people uh that I was
around were like, I'm just not doing
that. I'm not going to get a job where I
have to deal with that. And they really
thought they could just stay away from
it. You can't. You event, I don't care
how old you are, you have to figure out
how to use the computer, how to use the
internet. You got to get on email. I
mean, do you know how many people were
like refused to get on email as
executives back then? It was wild.
They're like, "No, my assistant will do
it. I'm not getting an email account."
Like, think about how crazy that sounds
today. So, there's a lot of resistance
to AI. It's coming. Everyone has to
learn it. They will learn it. I think
everyone will learn it. Like I said, we
are not going to take major steps that
are uncomfortable to change the way that
we live and work unless we absolutely
have to. unless we're at a point of
catastrophe. And I think if we start
seeing uh you know schools in China and
we're hearing that you know 12 year olds
in China are are basically operating at
college levels of intelligence because
they've converted their system to AI. I
think we'll start to convert our
education system to AI. But that's what
it might take, right? We're not going to
just proactively start to say, "Hey, we
have AI learning in every single school
now. We already have evidence that it
works, right? like you learn 5x faster
>> in like what like 30% of the time.
>> But do you think that they're actually
learning or do you think that they're
just applying AI in in lie of their
brain?
>> No. Have you seen these studies? They're
freaking insane.
>> So basically,
>> if you're really into soccer, you are
into soccer, right?
>> I like soccer.
>> Yeah, you likes soccer.
>> Yeah, I do.
>> So if you're really into soccer, it will
teach you everything through the lens of
soccer. So whether it's math, whether
it's English, history, like like like it
will literally figure out what your
interests are and it will teach you hard
concepts in ways that you can relate to
personally. So it's still teaching you
the same concepts. It's teaching you how
to problem solve. It's just using
methods that are more geared to your DNA
and to like your personality and your
style of learning. So, where it works
exceptionally well right now is with
with autistic kids. Um, but it will work
really well with everybody else, too.
The reason why it works really well with
autistic kids or people that have
learning disabilities is that the school
system generally isn't set up to like
educate them in a way that they're
capable of learning. But the AI can do
that. But truthfully, even people that
don't have major learning disabilities
all kind of learn in slightly different
ways. And we could definitely enhance
that process through through like
personalization. What it really comes
down to is personalization. Not to
mention the fact that what is the chance
that you have the best teacher ever when
you're, you know, in a small town in
Kansas?
Like maybe, maybe not, right? So
everybody would have access to
best-in-class
models and education and approaches.
>> Is any bit of you, this is speculation,
but concerned about AI being used to
like feed bad ideas or with malicious
intent like we were talking earlier um
about if you're just having a
conversation, oh where, you know, where
should I go to eat? These are the things
that I like. You could have advertisers
or companies paying some sort of large
language model to to recommend their own
restaurant over other restaurants. And
obviously that's a pretty harmless
example, but that could also be taken to
a different degree where you have, you
know, covert advertisements being paid
or you have, you know, certain political
agenda,
>> a political agenda being shown as though
it's like the truth even though it's
more subjective. You see that a lot with
CHAGBT.
>> Yeah, AI alignment is super important
and it has to get solved. Um, on the
advertising front, my assumption is it
will be fairly transparent and noted out
similar to when, you know, I was around
working in search marketing when Google
was created. And I remember when they
started kind of, you know, putting those
ads in, you could definitely tell like
there was there was a lot of
conversation back then, a lot of
controversy around how they were
identifying the ads versus the organic
information. I assume the same sort of
conversations will happen now. If
necessary, I would imagine government
would get involved in regulation if they
needed to. But hopefully uh it will be
self-p policed. The good thing here is
that we have like a relatively small
number of very large models, model
companies, and they have a lot to lose
by not doing this the right way. And I
don't think they're overly concerned
about squeaking a little bit more
advertising revenue right now. Like I I
think I think that won't be a big issue.
I'm more I'm more concerned with like
you know someone using AI to create a
terrible virus. That's the thing that
keeps me up at night.
>> As someone who only really uses Chad
GBT, what are the main like differences
and arguments for and against the other
main AIS?
>> It changes every few weeks, right? So
it's like the models are all changing
all the time. You know, everybody's
really hyped right now for Gemini 3.0.
It's coming out like any day.
>> What do you use if you have something
come up and you just pop open your
phone?
>> I use chat GPT because it's what I used
in the beginning and that's just
>> how it is, right? Like we get used to
using something
>> and then now it has so much history on
me that I'm afraid to change because I'm
like but it knows so much. I don't want
to have to like I want my I want my
agent to have two and a half years of
data on me. Like it knows how I like to
speak. It knows like what words I don't
like to use. Like it it knows a lot.
Like I have a pro I use the pro model,
right? So it has more history, more
memory. Uh 200 bucks a month is like
nothing compared to what I get out of
it.
So, I actually think the market on the
consumer side is massive. Uh, when Sam
Alman puts out these numbers of how much
money they're going to generate and
everybody's like, there's no way you're
I'm like, oh yeah, he will. When AI can
do anything for you, you'll pay up for
it because it's like it's it's a drop in
the bucket compared to what you're used
to paying to get those things done,
right? Like
>> so for the people watching, what do you
think are the best opportunities today
for them to look into or potentially
invest into?
>> The stocks that I'm most heavily
invested in right now, Robin Hood's my
largest holding. I think Amazon will
ultimately be the biggest beneficiary of
AI and robotics long term. The shorter
term trade that I'm in right now is uh
Bloom Energy. So Nvidia came out a few
weeks ago and basically announced their
new architecture of their new chips. And
it's really interesting because they're
moving from like a 48vt
uh power consumption to an 800vt
DC platform. an 800 volt would mean that
you could have like bigger pipes going
to the the the chip system so that it's
way more energy efficient and you could
actually use like small like it's just
way more energy efficient, right? And so
it just happens to be that Bloom Energy
is a company that has like this direct
current type of energy platform that is
perfectly suited for an 800vt DC
connection. So I think Bloom Energy is
going to be probably the biggest
beneficiary the next one to five years
of data centers around the world wanting
to get a direct current uh uh kind of
fuel source uh to power their data
centers. So the stock is already up like
five or 6x in the last 6 7 months
because people are slowly starting to
learn this. But energy is a big part of
the story as you guys have probably
heard, right? Like there's a concept
that eventually the cost of AI will
basically just be the cost of energy.
The real story right now is is is time
time to compute. So how long does it
take for you to get your data center up
and running? And if you can get your
data center up a year earlier or six
months earlier because you have an
energy source that works now, the amount
of money that you can make in that six
months off the compute is so insane that
you would pay anything for it. You know,
Bloom Energy, I guess you can say that
would be my more uh
kind of like more of a short-term
speculative. I don't want to call it
speculative. I did a tremendous amount
of research. Uh uh one of my good
friends uh uh Shianu has done a report
on it. You guys can read it. It's on my
Twitter.
>> But that's like that's like my big
energy play right now. That and a
company out of Canada uh called uh the
symbols TAC.
>> Transatlantic.
>> Yeah, transatlantic. I I think that data
centers are going to move into Canada.
Uh Alberta and they're one of the
companies that's primed to benefit once
data centers finally move into Canada.
There was a big issue with nobody
wanting to be in Canada earlier this
year due to the Trump administration and
due the fact that Canada is a very
difficult place to do business. So if
you don't have to go to Canada, you're
not going to Canada. But now we're at a
point where you have to like you just
need to go where there's energy. And so
this company TAC, they have excessive
amounts of energy that they can power
data centers with in Alberta. Alberta is
kind of like the Texas of Canada. it's
the least uh regulatory burdened
environment in Canada. [clears throat]
So I think that's going to happen here
in the next few months. So that's
another kind of more speculative trade
of mine.
>> And for the average person out there,
what percent do you think they should
have in cash of their portfolio?
>> So I think that you know I'm not a
financial adviser to be clear. the only
people that I whose account I I uh
advise are my parents uh and and my
kids. Uh
>> I think I think a great way to think
about uh kind of portfolio positioning
again you've heard me talk about this is
is bucketing. So you have to bucket your
money and you know how much money do I
need in the safe bucket? uh how much
money uh do I want to grow, right? Uh in
the growth bucket and then you can call
it the get-rich slow bucket, right? And
then everybody needs to have a get-rich
quick bucket. That is the most important
thing that nobody has. You absolutely
must have a bucket of money where you're
going to get aggressive. You're going to
take big risk, maybe put on some
leverage, invest aggressively in things
that might or might not work out. uh you
must have risk assets
and every wealthy person has risk
assets. People that are not wealthy for
the most part don't. Uh you just have to
properly
bucket them. So I think for most people
don't put any money in the get-richqu
bucket unless it's coming from tradeoffs
you're making in your life that
you're not you're not worried about
losing. So to Graham who has what
percent cash do you have right now?
>> It's over 20%.
>> Over 20% cash. And then how big is your
risk asset
bucket?
>> 10 really to 15 bitcoin.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I just I just count I just
count Bitcoin ETF in that bucket and
that's and that's that. Other other than
that, no. Everything else is
>> growth. Just safe. safe. Yeah. So, like
you you save a lot of money on coffee,
right?
>> I think most people would prefer not to
save money on coffee because it's not
worth it cuz they're like, I'm just
saving like $3.
But if you think of that $3 is growing
to $300 and then every single day you're
saving $300. All of a sudden you're
taking Graham's approach towards saving
money on coffee. Cuz like for me, I
don't care about saving $3, but $300 a
day, that's starts to get interesting.
So like you have to think about every
dollar in your life as a hundred bucks
cuz you could definitely 100x your money
over your lifetime if you're investing
aggressively. And then all of a sudden
you're find you're clipping coupons, you
know, you're making your own coffee,
you're just doing all these different
things. I'll wash my own car, you know,
maybe I'll just like take the the the
later flight that gets in a slightly
less optimal time, but I'm saving a
hundred bucks, but that's like $10,000
when I retire. Is it worth getting an
extra $10,000 when I retire to like get
in 3 hours later? Yeah. Yeah. So, like
when you think about money as being a
hundred times more valuable than it is
today, and I know that sounds like an
insane number, but I did it and I'm kind
of just a big idiot. So, like like
anybody could do it. Um,
cash I have like very little cash, but
the reason why I have very little cash,
almost like a nominal amount of cash, is
because I know that I have enough
equity. It's not going to zero. So, in
my mind, I'm prepared for a 70% draw
down. at any point in time. Meaning, I'm
prepared for the market to go down 70%
or at least the things that I'm invested
in to go down 70%.
>> What would you do if the market went
down 70%.
>> Uh, that would be rough.
>> It's done it before. Like, it's
happened.
>> Would you like sell the restaurants and
then put that then into the stock
market?
>> No. I I I I
No, because it would come back. Like,
it's not going down 70% and just staying
there. It's like that would be insane,
>> right? to buy more. Oh, to buy more. But
>> Japan did that. Japan went down quite a
bit and stayed there for decades.
>> That was a different time. I do not see
our current capital market. The way that
it works and the way that how productive
we are with capital here and the growth
engines that we have, especially now,
that's just not everything is a tail
risk concern. I'm definitely not living
my life that way cuz like again, it
depends on what your goals are. So when
you ask how much cash do you have, I
think the better question is like what's
your ultimate objective? Because if your
ultimate objective is just to continue
living your life the way that you're
living it, then maybe you do want to
have like a decent amount of cash and a
lot of money that's invested
conservatively.
And you might not even need to have like
a high-risisk bucket. Like if you don't
if you wouldn't live any differently if
you came into $10 million, then what is
the point of putting your money at risk
to earn $10 million? There's no point in
doing it. So it always starts with what
your objective is. What is my objective
to build a billion dollar foundation?
The only way that I'm going to do that
is by taking big swings at things I have
high conviction in, hopefully making a
lot of money, getting it in the
foundation, right? So like my objective
is different than yours and probably
different than Grahams. So, like you
just got to know what the objective is.
>> You said that you really enjoyed our
talk with Sawill Bloom about wealth.
>> Yeah.
>> What's something that you've noticed
when it comes to that? What have you
found as you've made more money?
>> There's definitely a sweet spot for
wealth.
>> Um, you don't want to have too little
and you don't want to have too much, but
they're equally uncomfortable on both
sides. Probably the most depressing days
I've had in my life are the days that
I've shortly after I've made a
tremendous amount of money. Like a
tremendous amount of money. Money that I
never thought would I could ever make in
my lifetime. Whether it's due to an exit
in a company or an insane few months in
the stock market because you see your
account get inflated and you look at
that number and you're excited for like
a few hours to maybe a day and then it
hits you that you just achieved
something that you've been trying to
achieve for so long and you're just like
it's not what you thought it was. Right?
Like it's it's it's just really not what
you thought it was. And the reason why
I'm saying that is because I've already
hit the sweet spot, right? So like early
on,
it was that great. Like when you go to
becoming non-financially independent to
becoming financially independent, that
is the biggest high in the world. It
opens up your entire life to spend with
family, to spend with friends, to
travel, not to have to think about what
you want to order when you're at a
restaurant. Like that is that is like
living life at its very best. to
actually get to that point in life is is
so amazing. And that's what I want for
everyone in the world. But once you hit
that,
you go above it and it's like not what
you think. [laughter] Not only is it not
what you think, it's like the opposite
of what you think. I'll give you the
perfect example. Like the last few
years, we started traveling on spring
break to these resorts that are like
2,800 a night, you know, 3,000 a night,
stuff like that, right? with our kids
and stuff and they're so nice. It's like
the nicest resorts in the entire world.
And we get there and you have people
that are just like bowing to you and any
little thing that you need and
everything is so gorgeous and beautiful
and the food is everything's perfect and
after a few days you're like this kind
of sucks. It's like this is like if this
is what it's like it's not fun. It's
like you've gotten to a point where
there's there's no energy. And I told my
wife recently, I'm like, "I'm done with
that."
>> Like, but you know what really stinks is
that once you There are some good things
about that
>> that once you go back to the you're
like, "Oh man, this is fun, but man,
you've kind of experienced this ultra
luxury that once you've experienced it,
now you have an issue with just regular
good stuff." And so that's why I call it
the sweet spot. You want to get in there
and stay in there. Like I know everybody
wants to like do all this crazy stuff
with all this excess money, but like
when you're having like having
conversations,
if you're in a room of people that are
just ultra ultra wealthy, they kind of
suck, you know? Like I hate to say that,
but like for the most part, they kind of
suck. Um, I kind of pride myself as
spending all almost all of my time just
being normal, like with normal, regular,
real people, doing real things. Like
that's why I go to a coffee shop every
day and just hang out and talk to
strangers and just like you get in these
certain circles and it gets weird.
>> How do you know if you're in the sweet
spot?
>> That's a that's a great qu. First of
all, I think it's different for
everyone, right? Like, so my sweet spot
might be
I I know you're going to want a number,
right? Like, you're going to want a
number. So, the number for me used to be
it used to be 10 million. I thought like
nobody needs more than $10 million. Now,
we're in such an inflationary scary
environment that maybe you need to
rethink that number. I don't know. But
that's traditionally that was always the
number for me. I was like, I never want
more than that amount of money because I
just know what's going to happen over
that amount of money. People just your
life changes.
You just you you just [sighs and gasps]
you have to continue to like So like
that's where the that's where the
foundations are so awesome, right?
Because you can build towards something,
but it's not about you just getting a
nicer car, a nicer jet, right?
Like because I don't know what more you
need at a certain point and and life
really does get worse. There's way more
problems. Like I have I joke with my
buddy who has a you know he's in the
yaching world. He's just
>> always complaining. He's going to watch
his show by the way. He knows who he is.
He's always complaining when he does
these yaching trips. It's like he's
like, "Gosh, you know, my my my my AC
broke and they're charging me $30,000 to
fly to fix a button on my AC, you know,
or like a pump broke and that's $40,000
or we're stuck at this port for two days
cuz no one can get out here to fix this
or like he just spends so much time
logistically dealing with problems." So
like there is a lot of truth to the more
money, more problems. I would say more
stuff, more problems. Well, that that
seems like like a character trait of
that guy because I instantly relate to
that just if there's a little issue like
the other day I spent three hours trying
to fix an outlet and it's just a minor
thing. It shouldn't take me but I just
get fixated. It seems like that's more
it's it's less about the money and more
that that that's him. He'd be the same
way if he had $10,000 in his
>> account. Truthfully, he's in that world
because he loves he loves he loves the
world. So, it it makes sense for him. Uh
for me, I think the sweet spot is
getting to a place where you get to do
everything that you want to do in life.
Like for me, like uh I'm going to take
my kid to the Georgia UT game in Athens
like tomorrow, right? So, uh that's
awesome just to be able to do that. Like
tickets are super expensive, but I could
handle it, right? Like that's it's
awesome that I didn't need to worry
about the cost of those tickets. Um,
it's also really fun to be at a place
where you have friends that do crazy
cool things cuz like I can go on his
yacht, you know, like I can go on that
guy's jet, but I don't I don't have the
burden of all that. I think there is a
sweet spot and life becomes actually
almost more miserable above it than it
was below it. I I I think life is worse
above it than below. I I really do from
everything I've seen. And and not to get
too dark, but it's like when you have
literally everything
and then you're above that level and you
continue to look for dopamine hits, it
generally only takes you in one
direction. Drugs, affairs, you know,
like whatever. It's just dark places is
what I've seen. Depression, right? Like
it's you get to the top of the world and
it's kind of a scary place. So, I like
staying in the sweet spot like and I
think I think you have to kind of get to
the top of it to realize that you don't
like what's above it and then you real
then hopefully you have common sense to
come back under it.
>> Was there any other moment in your life
that you realized that you were at the
top of it and it was a scary lonely
place aside from this experience at this
resort?
>> Oh, yeah. I mean I mean
>> what was the first epiphany? I mean the
it was the year of the pandemic when I
just saw my account balloon that big and
I was like this is like you just you
almost feel like for me and maybe cuz I
grew up like maybe it's like Catholic
guilt from growing up but like when you
have that much I mean you see people
talking about there shouldn't be
billionaires right I don't believe that
by the way but for me you I question
myself every single day what do I
deserve and And and for me to be this
fortunate to be in this position right
now,
how accountable should I be to others to
be doing something with this that has
nothing to do with me? So I felt like a
really big weight on my shoulders like
like wow like I just I just came into
all this success.
What do I owe for it? like like and
maybe that's just me but I felt there
was even more pressure on me and that's
when I started the foundation and
starting the foundation just relieved me
of so much stress cuz now I had a new
mission a new objective that was not
about me that I felt was healthy and
positive and made me proud to be able to
to put more money in it and every time I
put more money in it makes me proud and
like I developed this awesome way cuz
I'm all about efficiency gency. So, like
I don't take any money out of the
foundation. And the way that I figure
out how to disperse checks at the end of
the year is I just go to my friend
network and anyone that I think is kind
of generous or like a generally good
person, I'm like, "Do you have one
charity that you work with who operates
efficiently and does really meaningful
things where you think a check that's
like $10 to $50,000 would actually be
meaningfully beneficial and that you
trust them and then all these people
like, "Yes, I actually do. this the most
amazing charity. And they tell me about
it and they're excited. And then I'm
like, I just need the name. Nothing
else. Just tell me where to wire the
money. And I just I wire the money. And
not only do I know that money is going
to a place that's going to do good with
it, but I just actually built a deeper
relationship with the person that
introduced me to them because that was
an important mission for them. So it
like it like like adds depth to my
friend network. Um, and like they might
not be in a position in life to cut that
check, but I am. But like I trust them
and they trust that charity. So like I
don't have anyone administering the like
I do it all myself.
>> I realized I should have reached out to
you to invest uh or donate I should say
in Ryan Trean's uh latest challenge.
>> Yeah. What what was that?
>> That was a whole great series. He was
staying in all 50 states the coolest
Airbnbs and every uh day it was like a
new sort of thing where you could what
was it? the wheel of doom and a $50,000
check would cause him to spin the wheel
of doom and he has to like take on a
challenge. That would have been a great
thing. And and and he reads off a little
message that you could say,
>> "Well, next time call me." Like this I I
think the most interesting charitable uh
entity in the world is actually Beast
Philanthropy. I don't know how much you
know about them. And I know he gets a
lot of crap, but they have this mission
behind the scenes that is way bigger
than just donating money. like they want
to change the world of philanthropy over
the next 20 30 years and like deeply
ingrain it into everyone's life and I
just think it is so cool. So that that's
been one of the big
>> Why does he get so much hate? I never
understood that. Like people want to
find a reason why what he's doing is
bad. Is that because people don't think
that it's possible to make a lot of
money and then do a lot of good?
>> Yeah. They they they think you you built
your empire on the shoulders of common
people. like it's it's I think it's a
misunderstanding. I deeply deeply
disagree with it,
but it exists and and I do think there
is just a complete misunderstanding that
a lot of wealthy people don't just want
to hoard their cash. I most of the
people I speak to don't they would love
to do good things with it. They just
don't trust anybody. They definitely
don't trust the government. So they
don't want to give it back to the
government and they're even skeptical
and and have a lot of cynicism around
philanthropy. So that's why and I do too
and that's why it's like if there's not
a relationship there and it's small to
medium size I'm not interested in it.
People love to build you up and tear you
down. I mean it's no one's immune to it.
Has anyone ever been immune to it? I
don't even know.
>> Mr. Rogers
[laughter]
>> is he? I think he's the only one I've
seen who's never been.
>> I honestly don't even know who Mr.
Rogers.
>> You don't know Mr. Jack's showing his
age here. Mr. Rogers?
>> I think Mr. Rogers neighborhood.
>> No, I'm sure if he was around today, he
would have gotten cancelled by now.
100%. [laughter]
>> Yeah, I I
>> Who is this adult hanging around
children all day? What is
>> that? There's There's There's always
something. But uh no th this is uh
listen this is the best time in history
to be an investor. Like there's no doubt
about it. I continue to be more excited
about the next few years than the last
few years. Even though like the first
little bit of this AI cycle is over.
Like it's just going to get so much
bigger. You can't even wrap your head
around how big this is going to get. How
much of the world is going to change.
And with change comes opportunity as
investors. So, uh, even if you're just
starting out right now, like you have to
find money to put into an investment
account. You just have to whatever it
takes. Drive an Uber while we still have
drivers and Ubers. What I I truly think
every dollar you can figure out how to
like
get through any means, you can turn into
50 or 100 bucks uh through aggressively
investing the next, you know, 5 to 10
years.
>> Is there any investment you won't make?
No
>> restaurants.
>> Oh well [laughter]
well no I have two but uh they are
passion projects of mine I I I've talked
about this restaurants are the worst use
of capital. What's really fascinating
about the restaurant industry and I have
two super successful restaurants that me
and my business partner fully own but
almost every restaurant in the world uh
is set up in a similar manner.
And
basically investors will invest in a
restaurant and you have an operating
group and that operating group will take
5% off the top before the investors get
any money back. Well, the problem is
most invest most restaurants will only
make 5%. So if you're investing in a
restaurant, likely you're never making
your money back. Uh the very best
restaurants make let's call it a 15%
profit margin. So, if it takes you $5
million to build out a restaurant,
because that's often what people will
take to build a restaurant out these
days, and that restaurant knocks it out
of the park, like really knocks it out
of the park, and is doing $10 million of
revenue, then that restaurant is making
$1.5 million of profit in like the best
of all best case scenarios. But the
management firm took 5% off the top. So
that's 500K just to them. They make
their money no matter what. Okay? So
that leaves a million. Now investors
will get their money back before the
management company takes any profit
share for themselves beyond the 5% they
already took. But it would take you 5
years just to get paid back. And then
once you get your paid back as an
investor, the management company takes
half of the profits after that in
addition to the 5%. So now you're
looking at only half a million dollars
of profit that goes to the investor
pool. You're basically making half a
million on a $5 million investment that
knocked it out of the park. So, you're
taking on one of the riskiest
investments in the entire world that is
almost definitely going to fail in the
hopes that it becomes one of the top
performing restaurants and you can make
10% on your money.
Who on earth would do that?
>> What was the restaurant we went to with
Joshua Weissman?
>> Jose Bazaar.
>> Yeah. And how much was that buildout?
>> I think their buildout was like close to
50 million, 60 million, 40 million,
something like that.
>> Yeah. So, we looked at this restaurant
and it is incredible. It is one of the
best places to go on the strip. If you
have time, maybe tomorrow, go and check
it out. Would highly recommend it. But
we were looking at the buildout and Josh
was saying this buildout costs over $10
million.
>> The oven alone was $1 million.
>> It was a million dollar. And I was
looking at this thinking, okay, it's got
to be like five or six. 10 might be like
pushing it. Yeah, it was more than $40
million on this buildout. Just on the
buildout. Vegas is a bit of an anomaly
place, right? So, like maybe it was a
vanity project, but if it wasn't, I you
know, Vegas,
it's a weird market, right? But even in
Vegas, like I'm telling you guys,
there's never been a worse time to start
a restaurant. There's never been a worse
time to invest in a restaurant. The cost
inflation is through the roof. the
insurance inflation. I pay almost
$300,000 every year for liability
insurance between my two restaurants.
That used to be under 100k just a few
years ago. So, it's tripled in a few
years. So, we pay more in liability
insurance than most restaurants make.
How profitable are your restaurants?
>> We're we're profitable. We're we're on
the top end of the spectrum. So, like
we're in that 15% profit. You know, one
of my restaurants makes almost almost
$10 million. I have 65 employees of that
restaurant, Chelsea Corner. And um you
know, I think I have like maybe 25 30 at
Milo Butterfingers uh in Dallas. But
these are both restaurants that I'm
super passionate about. I used to work
at Chelsea Corner in college. So, it was
me and my best friend going back, uh
Lynn, and we went back and bought the
restaurant that we both worked at in
college. and like we rebuilt it and it's
become a neighborhood institution and
it's a place for our neighbors, our
friends, our family to come and hang
out. Like we get a lot of joy from it
and it just happened to grow into like
one of the best performing restaurants
in Texas. So great, we knocked out of
the park. It's awesome. But that's not
why we did it. We did it cuz like we
really enjoy like I enjoy enjoy just
like walking into the restaurant and
seeing people I know and sitting down
with them. I spent my entire career in
intangibles, you know, investing in tech
companies and analyzing publicly traded
companies. It's nice to have something
tangible that people can enjoy. And so
that's the only reason I think to open a
restaurant is if you want to dedicate
your life to it. Cuz I'm there every
day. Like almost every day I stop by uh
both my places. If you're doing it for
money, you're absolutely
crazy. Uh, and people complain that
drinks cost $16, $18.
Dude, the restaurants are generally not
making any money even with the $18
drinks. We paid $35,000 to get our
napkins cleaned like and rolled and
brought back to us and to get like the
mats done and people's uniforms on an
annualized basis. The expenses invol
Okay. How much do you think it cost to
clean an ice machine? Oh gosh. My guess
is probably $1,500 to go through and
like clean out everything. No way.
>> I think it's like $6 to $800. Uh we have
three ice machines. They're supposed to
be cleaned every 3 months. So that's
call it 1,500 to $2,000 every 3 months.
So we're basically paying I don't know
upwards of $5 to $8,000 a year to clean
our ice machines at one restaurant. Now,
how many restaurants do you think
actually do that?
>> Oh, very few. very few. But um you know
I eat there right and so like I want it
to be clean and hygienic and my
neighbors eat there so that's a
commitment I have to them but it is so
expensive to operate a restaurant and
the lawsuits they never end right you
get slip and fall lawsuits you get um
there was a fight at our restaurant a
year ago a kid started a fight and then
these other three kids one of them hit
him in the face and so they're suing
each other and then they sued us just
for no reason and they're like, "Oh,
well, you should have had more security
or something." It's like you just what
can we do? Like we're we're getting
yelled at for serving food late and like
some kid quickly punches someone else.
Like that's my responsibility now. Well,
guess what? We're $120,000 into legal
bills a year later just trying to get
ourselves off the case. And that's
something that our insurance is paying
for, but believe me, we're going to end
up paying for it. So, it's like
this is why our insurance has gone from
like, you know, 80,000 combined to
300,000. It just keeps going up because
we live in this place where people just
feel comfortable doing stuff like that.
And nobody cares. No one cares that we
have, you know, almost 70 employees that
it's their livelihood. Uh that because
we have to pay this money, we have to
pay them less. Now, you know, it's like
it sucks. It's a bad business is all I'm
saying. Like, you do it if you really
want to love it and like if you want to
become your life, but you do not do it
for money, I'll tell you that.
>> Well, Chris, thank you so much for
coming out. Really appreciate it. You're
actually here uh because we're doing a
meetup for the index and really happy
you're able to join. Uh for those
unaware, by the way, we meet quarterly.
It's all for like business owners,
high-end uh entrepreneurs, investors,
things like this. Uh we meet up
quarterly monthly Zoom calls. If you're
interested in joining that, by the way,
you're our honorary member. Uh the link
is down below in the description. I'm
glad you're able to make it out to Vegas
for this.
>> It It's awesome. We had a Zoom and I
talked about robots for a few hours and
it I I thought it was awesome.
>> You got everybody very hyped.
>> I'm hyped on robots, man. The robots are
coming. They are definitely coming, just
not as quickly as people think they're
coming. Uh, but they're coming and and I
think that will be the biggest the
biggest thing to happen to our economy
in our lifetime.
>> Looking forward to it. Well, thank you
again.
>> Thank you so much for coming on the
podcast. Thank you guys for watching.
Also, you may notice it looks a little
bit different in here.
>> Yeah.
>> So, I don't know if we're going to
reveal quite yet why it looks different,
but it looks a little bit different. It
looks better.
>> The members already know. We did a
members video.
>> All right. Well, we moved the podcast
studio. There we go. I I shared it.
Thank you guys for watching. Till next
time. See you.