Video summary
Mike Baker analyzes Tucker Carlson's interview with Vladimir Putin, concluding that while it was a ratings success for its potential 160 million views and dramatic premise of two evil minds meeting, it ultimately revealed little new about Putin's mindset. Baker argues that Putin is an extremely calculating individual who has survived Russian politics by carefully controlling his image and speech, meaning he likely knew exactly how to act during the interview rather than engaging in a spontaneous exchange. Consequently, Baker feels unimpressed by the encounter, noting that Tucker Carlson was also competent but perhaps not aggressive enough on critical issues like Evan Gershkovich's detention or Paul Whelan's case, as those topics were outside the agreed-upon parameters of the meeting. The discussion shifts to public fatigue regarding international conflicts, specifically comparing the rapid decline in Western support for Ukraine with the swift shift in narrative following Hamas attacks in southern Israel. Baker highlights that while civilians die in both scenarios, the speed at which global attention moved from one crisis to another underscores a human desire for novelty and new stories rather than sustained engagement with long-term struggles. He points out that Hamas has spent decades embedding itself within populations knowing civilian casualties would drive their narrative, suggesting that public reaction is often driven by immediate brutality rather than strategic geopolitical analysis. A significant portion of the conversation focuses on Alexei Navalny's death and his background as a critic of corruption in Chechnya who eventually ran for mayor of Moscow before being targeted by the regime. Baker explains how Putin initially used business corruption charges to silence him, but after Navalny was poisoned with Novichok nerve agent while abroad, he returned to Russia only to be arrested immediately upon landing. The transcript details allegations that Navalny's team flew drones over Vladimir Putin's billion-dollar compound in Sochi, capturing footage of lavish spending and pole dancers, which deeply irked the leader who prioritizes maintaining power above all else by suppressing social unrest. Baker concludes that Navalny likely made a calculated decision to return to Russia despite knowing his fate was probably inevitable within five years, aiming for maximum impact inside the country rather than remaining an exile abroad. He notes that while Putin and Xi Jinping operate with long-term views on maintaining control over their populations, they fear social instability above all else. The summary ends by reflecting on how Navalny's death in a forced labor camp near the Arctic Circle was not surprising given his status as a threat to the regime, regardless of whether he died from blunt force trauma or poisoning after going for a walk and collapsing.
Read the full video transcript
What do you think we learned from the
Putin Tucker interview, speaking of
Russia?
Um well, Putin's a douchebag. I think
that I took that away, but I see I had a
preconceived notion.
Putin, those are your priors.
Yeah, that was I was something I walked
into the interview with.
Um
Like I I don't I don't know. I I think I
understand why Tucker wanted to do it
aside from just 160 million views or
however many he got, right? I mean, that
was sure to be a a winner. Um in in just
the ratings.
Uh I don't think it revealed anything
clever or new about Putin's mindset.
He's a smart cat, right? So, he knew
what he was going to say, how he was
going to act, what he was going to look
like, you know, every I mean,
he's a very calculating individual,
right? He's survived Russian politics,
right? For this long and at the top,
right? Um you don't do that by being a
[ __ ] right? Or or or stumbling into an
interview with Tucker Carlson, right?
Who's not exactly Lex Luthor, right? I
mean, so
that
you know, again, that's and that's not
but I'm listening to Tucker. He's a
smart guy. I'm just saying that it's not
like it was it was not like some Marvel,
you know, movie where the the two evil
minds got together. Putin's a very
calculating, clever individual. So, I
don't think we I I mean, from my
perspective, I didn't learn anything new
about him.
Yeah.
Um
Look, this idea that
somehow we have no interest in Ukraine
and we should just, you know, close the
curtains on it. Um yeah, Ukraine, great
courage for 2 years. We all loved it.
You know, I'll keep my bumper sticker on
the car
um for Ukraine. And now we walk away
because we don't care anymore, because
we're tired of it and we want to, you
know, do something and we spend that
money back. We course we should spend
the [ __ ] money at home, right? We got
a lot of infrastructure problems and
resource we should do.
But we also have concerns over there.
And
so I think the you know, I'm I'm amazed
at the speed with which it happened. But
you could argue that about a lot of
things.
Yeah.
The speed at which the support fell off?
Yes, the speed at which it fell I mean
look again, I I don't mean to jump all
over the place, but Hamas rolls into
southern Israel, slaughters 1,200 people
in probably the most medieval display of
brutality that we've seen in our
lifetimes, right?
Uh which everybody agreed was was
incredibly brutal.
And in record time, it's Israel's fault,
right? Because they've gone into Gaza to
try to destroy the Hamas which has been
doing this which has always been in
existence to destroy Israel. And
so yeah, and of course you don't want
civilians to die. But Hamas has spent
you know, going on a couple decades now
embedding themselves inside that
population knowing that every time that
there is a conflict civilians are going
to die knowing that that's going to
drive the narrative. That's what they
do. So
the speed with which that happened, the
speed with which we've gotten fatigued
in Ukraine, you know, it all kind of
comes back around again to this this
whole idea.
Novelty, desire for something new. Yeah,
I am you know, I I knew that the Putin
Tucker interview was going to be a big
deal and I sort of prepared myself for
yeah, this like cataclysmic meeting of
you know, like west and and and and
Soviet and I
and then I I don't know. I came away
from it kind of just being like oh.
Uh uh just the very
Yeah.
unenlightened, kind of unimpressed, I
think. You know, you have this
30-minute
treatise, monologue, soliloquy at the
start about this is the history and this
is why we feel this way and so on and so
forth. And you know, Tucker is a he's a
very competent interviewer.
Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Usually. And I you know, I I don't know
how difficult it must have been and this
is something that people are never
really going to see the
intermediary of a translator between the
two adds a degree of complexity that can
really it's like fighting a southpaw or
something. It's you know it throws you
off your step a little bit. And
that sounds silly but you know
No no
they use that to I mean that's always
been the case. You always use a
translator to your advantage right?
It gives him more chance to say
something back to do whatever right?
Yeah very interesting. But no I just it
was a
but and now Navalny's dead.
Yeah and that's the next and that
happens what a week maybe
10 days after he sits down with Tucker.
Yeah no it it
and it's he doesn't care right? I mean
we we imagine that that Russia cares
what we think about them and how they're
portrayed and we imagine that Xi worries
about how China
You mean like they've got a a brand
equity dashboard somewhere and they're
like what's our current rating? Oh we're
at 4.4 stars on Tripadvisor.
What is that the old Q rating or the Q
factor and how popular are we?
Uh
they they really don't care. In part not
so much Russia but more China because
they've got the longer view right?
They've they they look way down the road
compared to how the the West tends to do
it but um
I think the the parameters of what they
were allowed to do
Carlson and his crew when they went in
were pretty hard and fast right? As
you can imagine there's a lot of back
and forth that goes into that.
cuz he was well for it.
Yeah.
He was two hours late which is
apparently like par for the course with
him.
he was riding a tiger. He was doing
something. He was he was
fighting a bear.
Yeah yeah.
So a couple of them.
But yeah if if Carlson had like born in
on
born in on Gershkovich right? Evan
Gershkovich who's sitting in in jail or
Paul Whelan or you know um
and and and
in in a more aggressive fashion. Said
okay well where is your evidence?
With with Evan that he's been engaged in
espionage. How about that? You know,
when are you actually going to do
something about an actual, you know,
open, transparent effort to discuss his
case?
You know, if you'd if you'd if he had
gone in on that more. But that wouldn't
have been allowed to happen, right? That
wasn't that was wasn't part of the the
agreed-upon, you know, playing field. So
I just I didn't think we're going to get
anything new and I I didn't feel like we
we did. Again, I understand why he did
it, had the interview.
But
anyway, but the Navalny situation
um
sudden death syndrome.
You're in a forced labor camp. Like just
Yeah, above the Arctic Circle.
Being alive being alive is a surprise.
Like the death isn't the surprise thing.
It's like, "God, he lasted 2 and 1/2
years."
Yeah, he went for a walk.
And then he didn't feel well. That was
their original comment.
You know, he went for a walk and then he
didn't feel well. You cuz cuz that's
what you do above the Arctic Circle.
Go for a walk.
Go for a walk. And
and then,
you know, there was some comment he had
bruising around his head and his chest.
And their their response was, "Well, he
hit his head
when he fell
on his chest.
repeatedly. And then the chest was when
they were trying to revive him.
It's So, from a Russian perspective, it
was it was exactly what you would
expect. And whether he was poisoned or
whether they, you know, they they you
know, it was blunt force trauma or
whatever.
The outcome was probably always
inevitable with Navalny because he was
always a threat. And
What's the give the 30,000-ft view for
the people who who don't know his
background, Navalny? Who was he?
He's a
I'm trying to remember the year that he
kind of really first surfaced.
Um
And I'm I'm I'm drawing a blank, but he
um
he
most not most recently, but he became
sort of a critic of uh of Chechnya. He
became a critic of some of the
governance in Chechnya and then the
corruption. He started
um
being more vocal about primarily about
corruption issues, right? And then he
fed off of that. I'm I'm really
oversimplifying it. But he had to be
careful about how he was doing that
obviously because you get you get
sideways with the Russian regime pretty
quickly.
But he started to gain a following
because he was one of the few people who
was actually getting out and talking
about things that people, you know, I
suppose in the back of their minds were
thinking, yeah, there's probably some
corruption going on here in the Russian
government and and around the region.
And eventually he he went to run for
mayor.
And
that didn't end well, right? He didn't
he got convicted or charged with
business corruption. Now it was kind of
the first
salvo that Putin fired at him, I think
in in in effort to say, hey look, just
shut up because I think, you know,
you're going to find this is not going
to go well for you. So, it was business
corruption. You see that in China, too.
Anytime somebody gets sideways with she,
usually it's a corruption charge. It's a
it's a some type of malfeasance on the
business side, yeah. So, um and then
they disappear. So, Navalny
made a bid for for mayor of Moscow
feeling like that's where you could make
a change, right? I think his his real
mindset was if you if if he could get
that post, then
he really could
perhaps longer term
influence change in Russia. I mean, he
was he's a proponent of democracy. Then
then then disinformation started to get
in there. There was a lot of movement
from the Putin regime
uh painting him in, you know, a lot of
different ways, right? Saying, okay,
you're you're you're far right, you're
an extremist, you're all sorts of things
started to come
through.
Um
and then it kind of all went sideways.
He eventually ended up I think it was 20
19 2020.
Um
he was uh on a flight, got sick. You
know, Novichok was the nerve agent that
they used.
Which is serious [ __ ]
Serious [ __ ] invented by the Soviets.
Um and uh so he almost died from that.
He was out of the country.
And then to his credit, after he
recovered
Okay, I'm going to come back straight
back.
Yeah. Yeah, so he flew back, he got
arrested before even really got anywhere
near, you know, passport control. They
just picked him up. And and that was
pretty much it.
But during during this period he had
started to do YouTube.
Mhm.
And he was flying drones, not him, his
team were flying drones over the top of
Putin's
billion-dollar compound
Yeah.
and releasing stories that he's just got
like an army of hookers and
pole dancers and stuff just cycling
their way through this place and looking
at all of the money and this is where
it's being spent. But they're, you know,
full on like what in order to be able to
go as far as they did, it looks like
pretty high-grade technology to be able
to capture this sort of stuff.
Yeah, I mean you can it's, you know,
again, drones being what they are
nowadays.
Yes.
I don't know. I like that. I like that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
real character. I know, I
um
So, yeah, the the drone technology has
changed everything, right? And it's so
accessible.
Right.
Uh you don't need much. A few bucks will
get you a drone with a camera that you
can, you know, get some really good
footage of. So,
but you're right. You know, talking
about his his his uh
his lavish lifestyle and his spending
that irked Putin on a on a personal
level, right? And Putin only cares about
one thing, right? Right? Which is
maintaining power. Same with Xi. And you
maintain power by keeping the people
under control, right? So,
social unrest is the one thing that
these guys all fear the most, right?
Including the mullahs in Iran and and
and you know, Kim Jong-un, although he
lives in kind of a fantasy world of uh
North Korea, but
So, Navalny
um
you know, at at at a certain point he
you know, it was it for him it was
inevitable, I think, that this is where
it was going.
I remember watching it unfold at the
time after this guy's been popped with
nerve agent and then it slowly recovers
and then starts doing his YouTube stuff
again and this is getting in days tens
of millions of plays and it's not even
it's only in Russian, right? There's
maybe you can maybe translate it into
British subtitles or English subtitles
or whatever.
And uh and then he's like,
"I'm not scared of you." Like, you
should be.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
You should be scared. And I as soon as
he got on that plane, right? To go back
to the motherland, that was
at some point within the next 5 years
you're probably going to be dead.
Yeah, and I think that
I can see the calculation that he and
his his, you know, his wife, I'm sure,
and and probably his close
cadre made that the most impact he can
have will be in country, right? I mean,
it's one thing to be a dissident outside
the country.
You know, China's got a number of those,
even though the Xi regime tries to track
them down and
change their minds. Um but
um
I think Navalny probably
spent a fair amount of time, who knows,
but it's speculation, but I suspect he
spent a lot of time
uh on that calculation. Can I have more
impact
outside the country or inside the
country? And
uh to his credit, he you know, he flew
back knowing, I think, exactly what was
going to happen.
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