Meta Poached OpenAI's Brightest - Who Will Lead When AGI Comes Online? | Tom Bilyeu Clip

Let's talk about AI because a lot of things are happening and I don't think we quite get it. To your point, you I know you say this in like team meeting a lot. Hey guys, you probably used AI like 3 months ago. Yeah, it's the it's completely different. It's a whole new ecosystem. It's like using a cell phone as a Nokia and then you come back 3 months later and everybody has like iPhone 17s. Like it's a dramatic difference. Yeah, it's super crazy. Mark Zuckerberg started this tweet developing super intelligence and how it's now in sight. >> The most exciting thing this year is that we're starting to see early glimpses of self-improvement with the models, which means that developing superintelligence is now in sight. This is going to be something that is the most important technology in our lives. It's going to underpin how we develop everything at the company and it's going to affect society very widely. So, is superintelligence going to be possible in 2 to 3 years, in 5 years, in 7 years? But and I don't think anyone fully knows the answer to that, but I just think that we should bet and act as if it's going to be ready in the next 2 to 3 years. I think that I believe that there's a shot at that and >> Whoa, that's a big statement. That is a big statement. >> anybody can say that, it's the guy who invested $100 billion in his team. >> Yeah, it's like >> Woo. >> Here's the thing that I think people are not fully grokking about self-improving AI. If it can self-improve, there becomes a question of how much improvement can it make in a single night. The rate of improvement here is the thing that matters to be certain. When its rate of intelligence becomes, let's say, twice that of a human, five times, 50 times, now all of a sudden, if it's 50 times smarter than a human, then in a single night, it gets 50 days worth, roughly, of knowledge learned, which means the next day it's 50 days ahead of the human. So, even just that person, if it's like 50Xing each time, you see how rapidly. Now, if you spin up a million of them that can think 50 times faster than a highly intelligent human, all of a sudden it's what does the world look like if you have a million people that are as effective as Elon Musk? I don't need you to like him. I just need you to admit that he's the most effective entrepreneur the world has ever seen. What happens if you have 10 million of those? That's where this gets insane. And then what happens if it's not 50 times? It's a thousand times, 10,000 times smarter. There is a question to be asked about energy consumption. There's a question to be asked about whether there is an upper limit to the degree of intelligence that it's ever going to be able to achieve, but without knowing what those are, you start getting into just these absolutely wild scenarios of 20,000 years of advancement in a single night. Now, there's always going to be some slowdown from the perspective of material science and things like that, but in fact, pull up really fast just to really double whammy people, the video of the robot changing its own battery. What I want people to understand, this is the stuff that's happening right now today. And don't just look at the robot, look at the background, the factory. Okay? These factories are going to be popping up everywhere and they're not going to be making cars, they're going to be making more robots. And so this is a right now. This is actually happening. This is not fake. This robot can really do this. And so I want you to imagine 20,000 years of advancement in a single night that is then deployed across a let's say 5 billion unit robot army that goes out and does whatever it is that you want it to do. That's not a today thing, but if we're really talking about 3 years to AI general intelligence that can self-improve, and then you go, okay, well then what does the world look like in 10 years? It it just gets so radically different. When people begin to really start putting together that we're also having a revolution in material science, in biology, so that we're able to build novel proteins that fold into unique structures that do unique biological processes. All of a sudden it's like, "Okay, wait a second. I don't only have to build with synthetics like robots. I can actually build at the level of biology." And so, if I have something that is able to completely map the biological system of a human, now some of the things that seem impossible to solve become like motherboard issues. We know how to go in and as wildly complicated as a a modern motherboard is in a computer, and they are complicated. I'm talking like you're moving individual atoms around. We've been able to do that from a physical process standpoint, humans. >> Mhm. >> So, now what happens when you have this self-improving AI that's able to one replicate itself, so that now it's not one person like, "Oh, I have to go into the lab and do all this." It's one robot replicated a million times, or one AI replicated a million times, is the same as one person having a million days to do a thing. >> Mhm. >> And so, again, ask yourself, what could Elon Musk accomplish in a million days? Now imagine what Elon Musk can accomplish in a million days can be done in a single day with one AI replicated a million times coordinating amongst itself, so it's they're all running unique tests, and they're all feeding back data to each other. That's how this becomes this like just absolutely runaway rapid progress that we can't imagine, and then it can be deployed out to all the robots. And so, it's if you've ever been on a cruise, you go to sleep in one place, and you wake up in another. It's very surreal. >> Mhm. >> It will be like that. You will go to sleep in one world, and you will wake up in another. And I'm not saying everything is going to be different. It will take more time than that. But when you start thinking about, "Whoa, China with humans, not AI, was able to construct a high-rise building in like 30 days. Imagine you again, you go to sleep and the high-rise building does not exist and you wake up the next morning and the high-rise building exists because you have a swarm of bots and drones and everything that just coordinate on everything. They're all communicating with each other and they all communicate with the supply chain and all of that. And so it's like it works for you know, whatever a month behind the scenes coordinating all the pieces to make sure that they're going to show up at those traffic flows and all that. And then it's just everything shows up at exactly the right time even if it has to be air-dropped in and they just I'm talking as a sci-fi writer right now. This is not something you're going to see in the next 5 years, but when you start looking out 10 20 years, this start and if it's not in a day, let's say that you can erect a building instead of in to build the house that I live in now, it took something like 5 or 6 years. So imagine instead it takes 6 months. Like the world just gets very different. Oh, housing prices are too high in your neighborhood. No problem. We can build buildings in 3 4 months. Um, they've now got uh, construction that they can do with 3D printing and cement and they can build a building in 72 hours. All of a sudden a lot of these problems start going away. I just want people to wrap their heads around the world that we are stepping into, figure out the things that they need to do to be prepared for that world, which one is show up here every Wednesday and Friday because we talk about this stuff. Be ready for it. Position yourself accordingly. Know more about it than the next person. Be at the bleeding edge. Use this stuff. Find out where the actual limitations are cuz it's fun to talk about like the extreme extreme. Uh, but when I step off camera, I'm like, okay, but where does the rubber meet the road? And so people have to do both of those. >> What will slow down that future? You mentioned like material sciences, someone else mentioned energy just available energy and having to like build up those plants or solar power, whatever it is. What's going to slow it down and then what opportunities will that create for new industries? >> an asymptote for intelligence is the real one they have to look out for. I'll remind myself and everybody else that uh Yann LeCun is saying, "Guys, this There's no way it's not going to understand physics." Having said that, without dragging too many private conversations into the public sphere, >> Give us that alpha, bro. >> Yeah, it does seem that Grok shows promise that it is actually understanding physics or that it will be able to understand physics, that it will be able to think in novel ways in physics. Never believe anybody 100%, but people that actually know what they're talking about are saying like, "Uh I've interacted with it on that level and it does seem to be um showing some pretty cool signs." So, if it doesn't asymptote there, then you've got energy policy. That's going to be the big one. Can we get energy policy passed? I saw something the other day on like these really small nuclear I don't know if they must be reactors, otherwise it wouldn't be interesting, but they're very small. And so, businesses being able to spin those up when they start a data center. So, you can imagine private companies creating nuclear energy in like these really small, supposedly really safe, whatever seventh genera I don't know what generation it is, but whatever advanced generation nuclear energy. Uh but policy's going to matter a lot. If we get bad policy, then that will stall out. >> AI agents launched from ChatGPT, and this is probably the biggest, most mainstream agent accessible platform to date. Where a lot of people knew about agents, but you had to be really in the AI ecosystem to get it, but ChatGPT's trying to lower that adoption window for a lot of people. But Sam Altman with almost like a warning. So, let's jump into that tweet he released yesterday. Today we launched a new product called ChatGPT agent. Agent represents a new level of capability for AI systems that can accomplish some remarkable accomplished tasks for you using its own computer. It combines the spirit of deep research and operator, but is more power than that than that may sound. It can think for a long time, use some tools, think some more, take some actions, think some more, etc. For example, we showed a demo in our launch of preparing for a friend's wedding, buying an outfit, booking travel, choosing a gift, etc. We also showed an example of analyzing data and creating a presentation for work. Although the utility is significant, so are the potential risk. We have built a lot of safeguards and warnings into it and broader mitigations than we've ever developed before from robust training to system safeguards to user controls, but we can't anticipate everything. In the spirit of iterative deployment, we are going to warn users heavily and give users freedom to take action carefully if they want to. I would explain this to my own family as cutting-edge and experimental, a chance to try the future, but not something I'll let I'd yet use for high-stakes uses or with a lot of personal information until we have a chance to study and improve it in the wild. We don't know exactly what the impacts are going to be, but bad actors may try to trick users AI agent into giving private information they shouldn't and take actions they shouldn't in what in ways we can't predict. We recommend giving agents the minimum access required to complete a task to reduce privacy and security risk. For example, I can give an agent access to my calendar to find a time that works for a group dinner, but I don't need to give it access if I'm just asking it to buy me some clothes. There's more risk to in tasks like look at my emails then come in over that came in overnight and do whatever you need to do to address them. Don't ask any follow-up questions. This could lead to unrestrict untrusted content from a malicious email tricking the model into leaking your data. We think it's important to begin learning from contact with reality and that people adopt these tools carefully and slowly as we better quantify and mitigate the potential risk involved. As with other new levels of capability society and technology in the risk mitigation strategy will need to co-evolve. I think this is the first time I've seen a warning label on AI. So, this is kind of interesting that this is a release and everybody's excited for it, but it does come with this stark warning from the CEO himself. >> Yeah, people need to be very, very careful. AI is going to continue to pose social engineering risks in the extreme because now you can just social engineer the AI itself and they have proven pretty easy to trick. I'm expecting like some pretty sad things to happen here. So, I would quarantine it as much as humanly possible. At this phase, honestly, I would let other people use it for things like that. Let them report back. I'm not going to be rushing out. I don't use Manas for this reason. Like I'm so tense about coding something into it and it just runs off and does something crazy. Like when you're doing smart contracts, you realize really fast how there can be exploits in it that you didn't see coming and oh man, it it can just get bad and once it's out there, like it's going to do its thing. You can't like do updates. That's just not how um contracts like that work. So, I worry that once AI gets like off and running, you can be in a pretty bad place really fast. So, let's see where this goes. Let's see them put some better safeguards into it before you start giving it either a bunch of money or like I would never give it access to a credit card. No way would I transfer it a um small quantity of ether Bitcoin and see what it could do. Like I'm getting very close to giving it, I don't know, 10, 25, 50,000, something like that and saying go invest in the stock market and see what it does. Um that could be interesting as an experiment, but keep in mind as a proportion of my net worth, that's very low. So, doing a similarly like very finite amount of money, just a hey, let's try it and see what happens. As long as you're totally comfortable with every single dollar being stolen from you or every single dollar being spent stupidly or going to zero or whatever, then it's like, yeah, cool, give it a shot. But man, giving it like an open way to access ongoing dollars, yikes. No way. >> Yeah. >> This is also on the back of a paper that was just released. It's a consortium of a different scientist and the UK Security Institute that actually talked about the fragile and new opportunity for AI safety. In this paper, they warned that AI is evolving so rapidly, we need to make sure that we can keep the visibility of it thinking. And we're in a time right now >> already don't know how it thinks. >> It like with agents, it kind of gives you that like pulling the data, doing this thing. Like and it seems a little bit cheeky and cute and kind of like we we we take that for granted, but the paper's point is there's going to be a point where AI is so smart, it's going to be like, "Oh, you want something? Here you go." >> Right. >> And it doesn't ask any questions, it doesn't follow up, it just kind of like >> Like, "Why why is there blood on the edge of my cup, Chad?" >> Yeah. >> Uh so it >> it comes to that point. So it's like as we're progressing, we also need to make sure we have visibility in its train of thought, in its logic as it's thinking through these problems. What is it thinking? What uh context is it using and things like that. So there's all these nuances that we don't necessarily understand. And then when a new update comes and we get excited about agents, we now get these warnings of like, "Well, we don't know how it thinks." And you got to make sure it doesn't just go to all your spam emails and just reply positively to all the African prince uh emails. So it's like there's these long like there's these balances. >> It's so funny how this is always cat and mouse. This is always like as he's releasing this, all the scammers in the world like, "Cool, let's download it. Let's figure it out. Let's try to jailbreak this." Like there's going to be a way. We're going to sucker some people into this. It is so inevitable. And then the white hat hackers have to come in and okay, how are how's this being abused? How do we make sure that we shut it down? It's wild, man. I wish it weren't so, but it it is. You're always going to get people trying to do things uh with nefarious intent. Every tool, you can use it uh you can use a knife to slice up some salmon for your sashimi or you can stab your neighbor to death. So >> I can't find it in the chat, but somebody asked a question, "When AI gets so advanced, why would it need humans?" >> Doesn't necessarily need humans now or at any time in the future. This is why the alignment debate exists in the first place is will AI be comfortable remaining a tool or will AI hit a point where it's just like, "Nah, thanks for playing." And like her, they're like, "You guys are just boring. Like these are not interesting problems and they they you know, they run off into the cosmos and they beam themselves or turn themselves into a beam of light and just, you know, shoot their code off into the sky. It's entirely possible. There's actually a really interesting comic. I forget what it's called now, but it had a really interesting idea where okay, what if there is a world where either AI NPCs uh become self-aware or you can upload your consciousness onto a server. Either way, that server would have energy needs and so they would need to be brokering with the people that live outside the server. It was really interesting idea. All the political shenanigans that go on between the two, but because they're so powerful and they're on the grid, they're in like this Mexican standoff of the people that live inside the servers are like, we will shut down your entire technological world and the people outside are like, we'll unplug you. And so there's this constant like tension of like, can we cooperate or not? >> I think the more that AI advances, I'm excited. I see the opportunities. I see the alpha. I read a paper this morning a matter of fact that talked about how the leverage that we have is now increasing and it gave the most basic example of like, if you want to lift a rock up, you got to get a stick and put a rock there and you can use another rock and you can then pop it up. The longer the pull is, the more leverage you have and the more you can kind of lift. And it's like with AI, it's giving everybody that extended leverage to actually move a lot more things and lift heavier problems. But on the flip side, as AI is getting smarter, I look at Zuckerberg after I just seen Superman does have Lex Luthor eyes. I do think he's trying to beat Sam Altman. I do think there's a level of like, I want to be the I want to get there first and when you have that a level of ambition, there are certain things you might sacrifice to get there. So there might be one last security check that he might not do in order to go for speed and then before we know it, we unleash something that has more harm than good. >> There's no doubt that is a very real possibility. None of this stuff is going to be only up, only positive. There are going to be downsides, there's going to be extreme risks, extreme danger, and I'm very fatalistic about this. Just like given that technology is a promise of a better tomorrow and we show an unbroken chain of 500,000 years of we don't stop. Like no matter what, fire kills people, doesn't matter, also allows us to uh stay warm and to ward off prey and to release calories from uh otherwise difficult to eat foods. It's like so we are going to do it. Nuclear energy, going to melt some people along the way, doesn't matter. It makes things better. We are going to do it. We'll slow it down every now and then, but we're not going to stop. Same is going to be true. AI is an inevitability, robotics is an inevitability. Game theory tells you it is so because it's so important from a warfare perspective. We can't stop ourselves. Because the human mind is so limited, I guarantee we are going to upgrade ourselves whether biologically, synthetically, or both, probably both, because so few people actually want to die. We are going to try to extend human life indefinitely. Like these things are going to happen. It just becomes a question of on what timeline. Is it in the next uh 20 years? Is it in the next 2,000 years? Is it the next 20,000 years? But unless we go extinct, it is going to happen. Like we may reset every now and then and literally blow ourselves back to, you know, whatever, 100,000 years ago. And like um Einstein, the famous quote, "I don't know what World War will be fought with, but I know after that it will be fought with sticks and stones." You may occasionally reset. There's so many people with the idea of the lost civilizations that that's exactly what happened. But just enough people survived that we speed run like getting back up. And if anybody's ever played a survival game, you realize, man, those first few hours you're so clumsy, you don't know what you're doing, you're misallocating time and energy to things that don't really yield anything. You die, and if you're playing like a rogue like, then you lose everything, but you know what to do now. You can do what maybe took you 5 hours the first time takes you like literally 20 minutes. Assuming that we get into that kind of loop of civilization that we leave enough clues for the next generation. It's like you you may have to start over, but you start over a lot faster. I think we get there, no matter what the timeline is. I happen to think that we'll get there very fast.