Video summary
The video begins by highlighting a significant week ahead for the stock market, driven by key economic data releases and corporate earnings reports. The speaker notes that major indices like the S&P 500, Russell, and Dow are approaching all-time highs, with the NASDAQ (QQQ) poised to break through its resistance channel around the 7:25 or 7:30 level following a recent breakout attempt. This momentum is supported by softer-than-expected labor market data from July, which showed a loss of jobs rather than gains, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider interest rate hikes and thus keeping markets optimistic heading into Wednesday's CPI release on inflation metrics.
The core focus shifts to seven specific stocks that are being closely watched due to their potential for significant movement or strong growth prospects. The first two companies discussed are Nebius (NBIS) and CoreWeave, both of which have experienced severe volatility but show signs of stabilization with impressive revenue growth; Nebius saw its revenue jump by over 400% year-over-year despite negative earnings per share, while CoreWeave is breaking through moving averages after a similar inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The analysis suggests that investors should monitor these stocks for potential breakouts above key resistance levels around $210 and $95 respectively, though caution is advised until technical confirmations are met ahead of their upcoming earnings dates in mid-week.
A major theme driving several other picks on the list is geopolitical tension regarding a potential US ban on Chinese AI equipment, which has created massive demand for domestic alternatives like Coherent and Lumentum. These semiconductor companies have surged dramatically recently, with Coherent gaining over 85% and Lumentum climbing significantly as investors anticipate strong earnings growth fueled by this supply-side shift away from China. Additionally, the video covers Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which remains highly volatile due to management trust issues but shows a promising chart setup near its support zone, Cisco Systems displaying a classic bull flag pattern before Wednesday's earnings, and Cerebras, an IPO stock that is attempting to break out of multi-month resistance levels with potential upside if it can clear the $230 barrier.
In conclusion, while many of these stocks exhibit bullish technical patterns such as cup-and-handle formations or golden crosses, the speaker emphasizes a cautious approach given varying degrees of trust in management teams and how much gains are already priced into current valuations. The overarching strategy involves waiting for confirmed breakouts above specific price targets rather than chasing momentum prematurely, especially around earnings announcements that could introduce high volatility. Ultimately, the video serves as a guide to navigating this busy week by focusing on companies with strong revenue trajectories in sectors like AI infrastructure and semiconductors, urging viewers to stay informed through upcoming economic data releases while managing risk carefully until technical signals fully validate upward trends.
Read the full video transcript
I hope you guys had a great weekend,
man, because we have so much coming up
this week in the market. CPI, we have
earnings from a lot of companies. And
guys, although a lot of the big
companies reported already, these
companies are very important. So, we
might as well dive into it. Hit the like
button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my
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And now, let's dive into it. Oh, by the
way, cheers. I appreciate you all for
tuning in as always, and happy Sunday.
Let's dive into it. So, you all know at
this point, the S&P, the Russell, the
Dow, all these indices except for the
NASDAQ are hitting all-time highs and
the Q's are right there. We're very
close. As you all can see, we're trying
to break through this channel. We have a
cup and handle potentially forming here.
Really, the breakout spot on the cues is
right around 7:25, 7:30. We're there.
We're probably going to test that this
upcoming week. And we have CPI coming
out on Wednesday. Let me show you guys
this very quickly. Bear with me. And you
know, we just got a pretty weak labor
labor market report or a jobs report
rather. Um the labor market's looking a
bit weak. We lost 23,000 jobs in July.
We were expecting a gain of 80 to
85,000. So that's going to lead the Fed
to scratch their head a bit and think,
okay, should we hike rates? Should we
push that back a little bit? And that's
why the market ended up running on
Friday. And that might that might
continue into this week. We have CPI
coming out on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
Core CPI is projected at point2%
[clears throat]
for the month which you guys know this
is the change in the price of goods and
services purchased by consumers
excluding food and energy. So when you
see core think excluding food and
energy. So for the monthly number we are
increasing from last month. Last month
it was at zero. Right now it's coming in
at 0.2%. That's the forecast for the
core CPI on a monthly basis. Now on a
yearly basis it's going to drop. That's
the forecast. Last month it was at 2.6%.
Now we're looking at 2.5%
for the forecast for core. uh for the
yearly number and for the headline
overall number CPI the monthly numbers
projected at 0.1%
it was at minus.4
last month so that's going to be um an
increase from where uh from where it was
last month and on the yearly number it's
going to drop just like core uh for the
CPI yearly number we're looking at 3.4%
4% that's the forecast and last month it
was 3.5%.
So the monthly numbers are going to
spike up uh for you know core and the
headline number but the yearly numbers
are projected to drop from last month.
Not too bad. And again here on the cues
guys the only indicy that hasn't hit
all-time highs yet. The only index uh
index this is on the verge of breaking
out. I'm watching 630 625 for the
breakout. And if that does take out, if
we take that out, 748, 750, maybe higher
is where we could be going. So, QQQ,
keep your eyes on it. Obviously, I am
all these um indices and all these
stocks that we're about to get into
right now, guys. These are all
mustwatches. So number one is Nebus,
ticker NBIS, which you guys know LEO
pulled situational awareness that fund.
Nebias is one of the stocks they went
heavy in, right? And this stock
completely blew up from 300 all the way
down to 140 in the span of 40 days.
We're talking 55%. Now it's finally
starting um to chill out a bit,
stabilize. Although it is it is still
very all over the place. We hit 168, we
went to 230. Multiple times we've seen
Nebius do this over the last couple of
days, weeks, right? So analysts have
them doing negative86 of EPS versus the
$245
profit from last year. So they're
obviously investing deeply into the
business. They're not focused on EPS. So
EPS is not looking great year-over-year,
but revenue looks phenomenal. They're
expecting on average $575 million of
revenue versus $105 million from last
year. That's growth of 446%
year-over-year. Phenomenal growth. Talk
about growth uh for Nebius, right? And
right now, I'm noticing a clear inverse
head and shoulders
on the 4hour chart. You guys might be
able to see it. Do you guys see it? Left
shoulder, head, got the right shoulder
right here. Let's see if Nebius can take
out. Honestly, I think the breakout
would be around uh 205 210. You could
hop in now, maybe try and frontr run the
move. Not saying that you should do
that. Uh but if you want to try and get
in before this right shoulder, you know,
starts to play out, you could now. But
it is it's not confirming the breakout.
So getting in is a little premature, you
could argue. Uh but we'll see. Earnings
are coming up here on the 12th, which is
what um that's on Wednesday, guys. So,
watch out for Nebius. NBIS for me. I'm
waiting for that break, preferably above
200, and that would be a spot uh to hop
in for a trade in my opinion. Coreweave
is another one, guys, which looks very
interesting here. The stock hit 140
couple months ago. We got all the way
down to $58 as um a lot of these AI
stocks got nailed. This thing went down
almost 60% 60% drop for coreweave and
now it's starting to break through these
moving averages for the first time in a
couple of weeks couple of months really
two months uh coreweave starting to
break through these moving averages and
we're noticing kind of a similar inverse
head and shoulder setup uh similar to
what we saw with NBIS. So, I'm curious
to see if if um Coreweave can take out
right around 9495.
That's the breakout spot. If you guys
take a look here, you'll notice that's
where we've struggled over the last
couple of weeks. We arguably have a cup
and handle right here as well. 95 needs
to break. Um, so analysts have them
doing EPS of negative$145
on average versus a loss of 60 from last
year on revenue of 2.5 billion. 2.56
versus 1.21 billion from last year. That
would be up 111%
year-over-year. So Nebius is growing way
more than Coreweave. Uh, but honestly,
Cororeweave's chart looks uh looks a
little better than Nebius is right now.
I think Nebius is still trading under
the moving averages. Yeah, it is on the
4 hour whereas Coreweave is starting um
to break out. You're noticing it, but I
still want to see it take out 95. Not
bad numbers. Not bad numbers projected
out of Cororeweave. Coherent is another
mustwatch stock for this week. And by
the way, Coree's earnings are on the
11th. So that's on Tuesday. Coherent is
on um their earnings are on the the 12th
which is on Wednesday. And this stock
guys, oh my goodness, this thing went up
13.5% on Friday. It is up from 215 to
380 over the last couple of days. 85%
move. And a lot of this, I don't know
about how much percentage came after
this news, but a good amount of this has
to do with the fact that the US Trump
administration is drafting a ban right
now um to ban Chinese AI equipment. What
does that mean? Well, a lot more demand
for the products. Coherent produces,
right? Lumenum, uh you know, uh Corning,
which these stocks went berserk the last
couple of days. Um, look at Lmentum,
which we'll talk about here next.
Lmentum is trading at $890 when it was
just at $580 10 days ago. So, Coherent
is is through the roof. Same with
Lmentum. And analysts have Coherent
doing earnings per share of a buck 62
versus a dollar from last year. Very
good on revenue of $1.98 billion versus
1.53 billion from last year. We're
talking about 29 30% growth
year-over-year. Not too bad. And
Coherent is starting to get towards the
highs from about 2 3 months ago. And at
this rate with a with a blowout earnings
and strong guidance, we might be taking
that out. We might be taking that out
with uh the momentum that's building up.
Same with Lmentum, guys. Lmentum might
be taking out the highs from May, June,
July being about 1,00 you know 1,100.
That's where we're pushing right now.
Lmentum analysts have them doing $2.97
versus 88 from last year on revenue of
$987 million versus $480 million from
last year. Up over 105%
yearonear. So, when it comes to growth,
Lumenum's growing a lot more than
Coherent,
but I'm pretty sure uh they're trading a
bit more um expensively on a PE basis.
Lmentum is um compared to Coherent.
Either way, both of these stocks are
breaking out for the same reason. Um,
you know, again, the the fact that the
US Trump administration is looking to
ban Chinese AI equipment, this is
pushing up a lot of these uh, you know,
these picks and shovels plays, which is
what Coherent is, which is what Lmentum
is. And we can see another company here.
By the way, Lmentum, I think, is on the
12th. Um, no, they're on the 11th.
Lmentum's on Tuesday in the aftermarket.
And SMCI is also this week which um this
stock is on or this company's on the
11th. So on Tuesday after the bell and
this stock's been all over the place.
All over the place. This thing hit $18
back in March. It got all the way to 51.
Now we're back to 31. Quite frankly,
guys, listen. I don't trust this
company. I don't trust management. I
don't trust um you know this business at
all. Right? One day it's here, the next
day it's here. It's a fraud. One day
it's not. The next I'm okay with it. I'm
not going to touch it based on that
reason, but it could go ballistic. The
setup right now is quite interesting. We
saw a big run of 50 again, like I said,
back in June. Now it's pulled back, but
the overall support at 30 32 bucks has
been holding and we're one breakout away
from this completely
uh breaking out again, you know, on good
potentially on good earnings. If
earnings are strong, this thing's very
volatile around earning season. Um who
knows what's going to happen. They're
after the bell on um Tuesday. SMCI
analysts have them doing 96 cents versus
41 cents EPS from last year on revenue
of 11.56 billion versus $5.76 billion
from last year. That would be up 100%
year-over-year. Not bad, man. Not bad uh
for SMCI, but again, I don't trust this
company that much. Um, even though the
chart setup looks pretty good, I'm
staying away, but I will set an alert
for fun at 35 a share and we'll see if
we're able um to get out of there. And
by the way, guys, make sure to hit that
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appreciate you all for all the support.
Cisco is another one which we have a
clear bull flag heading into earnings on
the 12th, which is on Wednesday. The
stock's already breaking out. Looks like
with that bull flag, uh, it might be
going higher, maybe back to 130. Maybe
it takes out that 132 high from the
early days of June. Analysts have them
doing a $1.17 EPS versus 92 cents from
last year on revenue of 16.83 billion
versus 14.67
billion from last year. Up almost 15%
year-over-year. Not bad. But how much of
this is already priced in? And the
stock's up a lot from where it was
earlier this year. At the beginning of
the year, we were at 72. Now it's at
120. It's up 65%.
How much is already priced in? What do
you guys think? But it does look
bullish, right? Bull flag breakout above
these moving averages. Golden cross. I
like it. Uh but I'm not, you know,
hopping in quite yet. Uh personally, we
also have Cerebrros this week. CBRS is
the ticker. This company went public a
couple months ago and it hasn't been so
hot, which is why I don't mess with IPOs
um too much, especially when they first
come out, guys. I'm I'm much more of a
fan of waiting 6, 12, 18 months, which
we've talked about that a lot here on
the channel. So, Cerebrass has earnings,
I believe, on Wednesday. Um, yeah,
Wednesday in the aftermarket. And
listen, they are consolidating. The
stock is starting to put a bottom in
potentially. Um, and we're start we're
starting to see some type of momentum
heading into earnings. We have a cup and
handle right here. We're trying to break
out of this multimonth resistance at
about 235 240. Um, if that does break
guys on good earnings, there could be
something here. There could be some
momentum here on um Cerebras. analysts
have them doing EPS of18
on revenue of $193.5
million. And for me, the breakout spot
is right around 228
to 230. So, I'm going to set my alert
now. Might as well at 230 and we'll go
from there.
All right,
got some water in my system, guys. Stay
hydrated. But I was out playing golf um
all day today. Man, I'm freaking tired.
I don't even know how I'm making this
video uh with no coffee, guys. And I
have this crazy sunglass tan. I forgot
to put uh face sunscreen on. Whatever.
Who gives a crap? It is what it is,
guys. Hope you all had a great weekend.
Hope you guys um did have a great time.
Got to relax a bit. It was a nice
weekend. Now I'm ready uh to get back to
it. So, these are seven stocks I'm
watching. What are you watching? Let me
know in the comments. Hit the like
button. Again, make sure to subscribe
and join my Patreon if you want to keep
up with my realtime trades, investments,
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And with that being said, I'll see you
guys in the Patreon or in the next
video.