Video summary
Nvidia continues its impressive market performance, posting another strong green day and solidifying its position as one of the top holdings for the speaker. The stock recently broke even on key indices like the Dow while broader markets rallied, with Nvidia specifically showing a bullish flag pattern that suggests potential to test previous highs around $226. Technical analysis indicates a clear breakout on the four-hour timeframe supported by a golden cross and a bounce off the 50-day moving average, signaling strong momentum heading into earnings reports in two weeks. The speaker notes historical patterns where Nvidia tends to surge right before earnings only to experience a sell-off afterward, which influences his current strategy of holding long-term while managing short-term exposure through covered calls that expire on September 4th.
Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive with forty-eight buy ratings and an average price target of $302 per share, though the speaker acknowledges some targets as aggressive given Nvidia's massive market cap of over five trillion dollars. The company is projected to deliver extraordinary growth figures for the upcoming quarter, including nearly double-year revenue estimates reaching approximately ninety-two billion dollars and earnings per share doubling from a year ago. These projections reflect an eighty-two percent year-over-year growth rate in current fiscal year expectations, supported by high forward P/E ratios that still seem justified given Nvidia's dominant market position, massive profit margins, and exclusive partnerships with major entities like SpaceX and investment giants such as BlackRock and Goldman Sachs.
Despite the bullish outlook, the speaker maintains a cautious stance regarding immediate entry points for new investors who were not already positioned at lower price levels, suggesting patience might be warranted until potential pullbacks occur. While he believes there is more short-term upside than downside with bulls currently in charge, he warns that excitement should be tempered by historical precedents of post-earnings corrections which could trigger a sell-the-news event even if the stock reaches targets like $235 or $240 before reporting. The speaker emphasizes his willingness to lock in profits on some shares via option strategies rather than risking significant losses, acknowledging that while reaching valuation extremes like five hundred dollars per share seems unlikely within twelve months, hitting three hundred remains a plausible scenario over an eighteen-month horizon if current growth trajectories hold steady.
Read the full video transcript
Nvidia just keeps on crushing it, guys.
Another 3% green day as the entire
market did pretty well today, guys. The
S&P went up around a quarter percent,
the Qs and the Russell each went up
around 3/4 of a percent as the Dow broke
even and the VIX got squashed, man. 5%
red day for the VIX. So, we have to
break down Nvidia, the charts, earnings
coming up as now we're 2 weeks away from
earnings and we're going to go over my
thoughts, where my head's at, what I'm
going to do as it is one of my top
holdings right now. So, guys, hit the
like button, make sure to subscribe,
join my Patreon if you want to keep up
with my portfolio updates, trades,
investments. If you want to be a part of
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And now, cheers, got my good old coffee
from Chick-fil-A, guys. And I actually
haven't had a a coffee from Chick-fil-A
ever, I don't think. And this is
actually pretty good. And funny enough,
they uh they put my name down as Stash,
s t a s h. Yet again, guys, the ongoing
joke on the channel here is whenever I
go to a Starbucks, a Chick-fil-A, right,
they call me Josh, Scott, Walsh,
anything but Stas. And I get it, I get
it. Stas is uh you know, not so common
of a of a nickname. It's my nickname, by
the way, guys. Uh but yeah, either way,
got the coffee, we have the water, we're
ready to go, guys. Nvidia, like I said,
3% green day today, $7 up. And it looks
like we have a bit of a bull flag here
on the 5-day 5-minute, which means it
could be going higher. And honestly, I
think Nvidia might take out 226, which
is where it's testing right now. That
was the high from the 10th of August, a
couple of days ago. I think we're going
to take that out and we're gearing up
for that right now. You guys can see on
the 4-hour time frame,
we're completely breaking out. We have a
golden cross, and we did pull back the
last couple of days. Uh we got down to
about what? 217? Yeah, 218, and we can
see we clearly put in a put in a bottom
for now at the 50 moving average, and
we're bouncing off of it here on the
4-hour chart. So, if this takes out 225,
guys, this thing is going to go berserk
heading into earnings, and this is what
Nvidia does. This is what it does. It
runs into earnings, and then it sells
off after. At least that's what it what
it has been doing the last couple of
earnings reports. So, for me, guys, I'm
long, obviously, um heading into
earnings. It's a longer-term investment,
and on some of my shares, I actually
sold some covered calls, and they expire
on the 4th of September. I sold the 240
um or 235, and a big reason why I did
that is, obviously, to collect the
premium. The premiums are elevated right
now heading into earnings, and my bet is
we're going to run into earnings, but I
think afterwards, we're going to sell
off. Similar to what we've seen. You
know, if Nvidia runs to 230,
let's say it has a blow-off top to 235,
240 into earnings, I feel like we're
going to get a sell-the-news event, and
by the time expiration rolls around, um
we should be under the strike that I
sold. Um and if not, hey, I'm willing to
give up some Nvidia shares. It is what
it is. I mean, I'm in the stock uh for a
while. I'm up a lot on the stock, so I'm
willing to lock in some profits, uh but
I don't think they're going to get
called away, my shares. We'll see. Uh
but yeah, it's it's shaping up similar
to the last two earnings reports
technically uh where we ran into them,
got very hot, and then we sold off
after earnings. So, speaking of
earnings, let's talk about where
Nvidia is at right now, what the
analysts are saying, what they're saying
about estimates for EPS, revenue, price
targets, buy rating, sell, or you know,
hold. What are the analysts saying? So,
we can see right now if I pull this up
quickly. Give me a second here, guys. A
lot of a lot of people think a lot of
these analysts think, well, Nvidia is a
buy right now. And I tend to agree.
Well,
I I was buying under 200.
I mean, if I didn't have a position now,
would I be buying? Maybe not. Maybe on a
pullback, but I tend to agree. Okay, I
can see Nvidia
maybe being a buy, honestly, for for a
lot of people. But for me, since I'm in
at a lower price, I'm not buying here,
but I'm holding, right? And look, the
average target on the street is $302 a
share. The
The high is $500, guys. Think about
that. And the low is $180
per share. So, obviously, we're we're on
the lower end of this range. And the
high target on the street has Nvidia
doubling, more than doubling
from here, which I got to be honest,
these are 12-month targets. That's a bit
aggressive. Is Nvidia going to 10
trillion in the next year? I doubt it.
Maybe in the next 5 years, okay, now
we're talking.
But, you know, for now, 500's a bit a
bit far-fetched. 300, though,
now we're talking. I think 300 could be
in the cards in the next year, 18
months. And as of now, we have 48 buy
ratings,
>> [cough and clears throat]
>> 10 strong buy ratings, couple sell, or
actually, no.
Excuse me, we [cough and clears throat]
have a couple underperform, maybe a
couple hold ratings. and the average
targets on the street, let me show you.
Um actually, let me pull this up.
Well, before we talk about the
estimates, look at the market cap. It's
at 5.3 trillion right now, and they're
trading at 24 times forward earnings.
And of course, if their earnings get
slashed for any reason, if something out
of left field comes and their earnings
collapse, which could happen, never say
never, who knows. I doubt it, but okay,
that could change the stock price, the
valuation drastically, but as of now,
based on the projections, the forward
earnings, forward PE rather, is a 24.
Think about that with the trailing PE at
33. And wait till you see Wait till you
see what they're projecting when it
comes to
um the estimates here, guys.
Unbelievable. So, based on 42 analysts
for this quarter, they're about to
report for the average revenue estimate
is almost $92 billion. Um a year ago,
they did 46 billion. Um last I checked,
46 to 92, that's a double up. So,
they're projecting, analysts are, 96%
growth year-over-year on the top line.
And looking at EPS, based on 40
analysts, the average estimate is $2.08.
And a year ago, they did a buck five,
$1.05.
Um so, EPS is going to double pretty
much as well. So, EPS is doubling,
revenue's doubling, and for the current
year,
we can see the average estimate for EPS
is $9. And a year ago, they did $4.77
on uh let's see, the revenue, the
average revenue estimate is $393
billion for the current year uh versus
last year's $215 billion estimate, or
not estimate, but actual uh revenue
number. That's 82% growth year over
year. So, guys, Nvidia, yeah, their
growth is going to slow down in '28
over the next couple of years, but as of
right now, you're paying 24 times
forward earnings,
and you're getting a company growing at
100% on the top line, wildly profitable,
crazy margins, crazy moat around the
business. And to me, it's it's almost a
no-brainer to hold the stock. And again,
if you're not in the stock, you could
argue it's a good buy even at these
levels, even as it's up as much as it
is. Uh, there's so much good news that
we've gotten, you know? Nvidia clicking
up with the big boys on Wall Street,
Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman, right?
You name it, we got news regarding
SpaceX.
Um, they're going pretty much exclusive
with Nvidia
with their chips. I mean, there's so
much good news we've gotten recently,
and the stock I mean, look, the stock
has run. It's run off the lows, but it
kind of didn't run as much as you would
have thought on that, um, you know, Wall
Street news we got, and um, on the
SpaceX news that we got, but it kind of
seems like now it's starting to digest
that, and it's starting to run. Again,
it's bouncing off this low, or not this
low, but this moving average. We're
putting in a higher low, and I think if
this thing, if this stock takes 225 out,
226,
um, this could be an absolute runner
into earnings. But again, don't get too
excited because, quite frankly, I think,
um, yeah, I think we could have run
more, but I think a pullback post
earnings is coming, and I could be
wrong. Maybe we rip to 250 after
earnings, and uh, my shares get called
away, some of my shares at least. That
could happen, but based on history, uh,
there's a decent chance we sell off into
earnings. Or maybe, look, there's still
2 weeks till earnings. Maybe we pop over
the next couple of days, we got a
blow-off top rally,
and we pull back into earnings. We'll
see. Either way, Nvidia's on fire, bulls
are in charge. Um I think there's more
upside in the short term than downside.
What do you guys think? Let me know in
the comments. And again, I'm long,
obviously, it's my one of my top
holdings in my portfolios.
Um I'm excited for the report, and it's
been doing pretty well over the last
couple of days. What more could you ask
for, right, guys? And of course, long
term, it's been crushing it, right? So,
what do you guys think? Let me know in
the comments. Hit the like button. Make
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I'll see you guys in there. And with
that being said, cheers. Have a great
rest of your day.