Mass destruction of Putin's soldiers in Donbas: Ukraine fights for its last strongholds
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The ongoing conflict in Donbas is characterized by a slow but persistent Russian advance as Ukrainian forces prepare to defend their final major positions in the region. While intelligence agencies suggest that Russian troops could reach the outskirts of key cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansky as early as 2027, experts warn that the situation for Ukraine is deteriorating in specific areas despite the sluggish pace of the offensive. Some analysts believe a complete capture of Donbas by Russia could occur next year, though this would likely inflict enormous losses on the Russian army. Conversely, other military observers note that Moscow's current speed of advance is its slowest since winter, potentially delaying a full conquest until the early 2030s unless significant changes occur in their strategy or manpower.
A critical factor influencing the battlefield dynamics is the disparity in drone capabilities and aerial bombardment tactics employed by both sides. In certain sectors, Russian forces utilize FPV drones at a ratio as high as ten to one against Ukrainian defenses, creating a severe local advantage that complicates Ukrainian operations. Additionally, guided aerial bombs continue to cause significant casualties and damage to Ukrainian positions. Military analysts emphasize that while the offensive has slowed, it does not indicate a stabilization of the front; instead, Russia may require a new mobilization effort in the fall to sustain or accelerate its progress by the first half of 2027. Without such mobilization, the Kremlin might struggle to maintain its current momentum against determined Ukrainian resistance.
Logistics and supply lines have emerged as pivotal elements in the upcoming battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansky, with Austrian military experts highlighting their potential decisive role. A significant portion of Ukraine's logistical support relies on heavy multicopters and ground-based unmanned aerial vehicles, which Russian forces are systematically targeting to sever Ukrainian supply chains. If Russia succeeds in cutting off these lifelines, Ukrainian troops may only be able to hold their positions for a limited duration before collapsing. The defense of the last strongholds around Kramatorsk and Sloviansky thus hinges on Ukraine's ability to break this vicious circle of attrition and prevent the isolation of its infantry units from reinforcements and rotation capabilities.
On the ground, Ukrainian commanders are focusing their strategy on destroying Russian drone operators while preserving as much infantry strength as possible, recognizing that the survival of soldiers directly correlates with the duration cities can be held. The tactics employed by Russian forces often involve sending small groups of attack aircraft to gradually wear down Ukrainian defenses rather than engaging in large-scale immediate assaults. This methodical approach aims to exhaust Ukrainian resources and morale over time, making the defense of these final strongholds an arduous task that requires not only tactical ingenuity but also sustained logistical resilience. Ultimately, the fate of Donbas will likely depend on whether Ukraine can maintain its defensive belt against a relentless, albeit slow, Russian push that seeks to exploit every technological and operational advantage available.
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The occupiers continue to slowly advance
in Donbass and Ukrainian troops are
preparing for heavy fighting for the
region's last major defensive positions.
Experts warned that the situation for
the Ukrainian armed forces in certain
areas of the front is deteriorating, but
the pace of the Russian offensive
remains extremely slow. According to
Business Insider, representatives of one
of Europe's leading intelligence
agencies estimate that the Russians
could reach the outskirts of Kromatursk
and Slavansk in early 2027. These cities
are the center of Ukraine's last major
defensive belt in the Donbass.
Intelligence officials believe that
Russia could completely capture Donbass
as early as next year. However, such a
campaign would cost the Russian army
enormous losses. At the same time, not
all experts consider this scenario
inevitable. The publication notes, for
example, military analyst Fran Stefan
Gotti noted that Russian troops are
currently advancing at their slowest
pace since winter. He believes that at
the current rate of advance, Moscow will
not be able to fully capture Donbass
until the early 2030s. At the same time,
the expert warned that a slowdown in the
offensive does not mean the front is
stabilizing. In certain areas, the
Russians have a local advantage,
particularly in the use of FPV drones.
In some areas, the drone ratio could be
as high as 10:1. An additional problem
for Ukrainian troops remains Russian
guided aerial bombs, which cause
significant losses to Ukrainian armed
forces positions. Gotti suggested that
the Russians could reach Kromatursk and
Slavians as early as the spring or
summer of 2027.
However, he believes that the Kremlin
may need a new mobilization to achieve
this. Russia needs to mobilize if it
wants to maintain or increase its
current pace. According to him, if
mobilization takes place in the fall,
the new military will be able to
significantly influence the situation on
the front around the first half of 2027.
Austrian armed forces Colonel Marcus
Risner believes that Russia's summer
offensive has not yet met the Kremlin's
expectations, but the Russian army
continues to advance slowly but
steadily. In his opinion, Ukrainian
logistics will be one of the key factors
in the upcoming battle for Kromatursk
and Slovian. If the Russians succeed in
cutting off the Ukrainian troops supply
lines, they will only be able to hold
their positions for a limited time. A
significant portion of Ukrainian
logistics is already carried out using
heavy multicopters and groundbased
unmanned aerial vehicles. The Russians
are attempting to systematically destroy
these assets as well as hinder the
arrival of reinforcements and the
conduct of rotations. Risner warned that
without Ukraine's ability to break this
vicious circle, the defensive belt
around Chromaturks and Slavansk could
collapse. According to 24-year-old
commander with the call sign Fleshka and
a 26-year-old commander with the call
sign Sasha, the main objective is to
destroy Russian drone operators and
preserve as much of the Ukrainian
infantry as possible. The longer the
infantry survives, the longer the cities
will be held, he explained. The military
man also described the Russians tactics,
which he said often sends in small
groups of attack aircraft, gradually
wearing down Ukrainian defenses.