Market Resiliency! Can It Last? | PS60 Day Trader

Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy Sunday everybody. Good morning and welcome to another edition of uh the accesstrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Finally, backtoback days of nice weather in the Northeast. One of the worst summers I've seen as far as weather. If this was snow, we'd be getting nine feet of snow every single leaf. So hopefully you guys are enjoying uh summer. We got basically about a month, month and a half left of nice weather and then going back to well father winter, right? Not exactly the the favorite time of year. Anyway, guys, thank you very much for tuning in, spending a couple minutes with me. Uh all I ask is click that like button, support the channel. Hopefully again I will continue to do my best to point you in the right direction. So 2026 is going to be down uh is going to go down as one of the most aggressive uh violent and resilient years. Uh you're probably going to trade uh in your career. It's going to be up there, right? It's going to be up there. Out of uh the I'm going on my 27th year. I I rarely remember going back and there's been some really aggressive violent markets, but I don't remember this much aggression on both sides. Right. on both sides. And you know, the way we always look at uh the tape is, well, if it's building above the 50-day moving average, it's good, right? Risk on. If it's building below the 50-day moving average, the last thing you want to do is be long until the market reclaims it back. And you can see just the evidence going back uh kind of going back from April. I mean, uh, April, uh, the Q's reclaimed the 50-day moving average and went from 609, uh, all the way up to June of 747. I mean, you're talking about 100 point move on the cues. And you can just see this last move down. And again, although it was very, very brief. You can see, you know, we went from 716 uh, 716 actually 724 on July the 15th all the way down to 660, guys. I mean that's a huge move. 60 70 points move on a couple of weeks. That is very very aggressive. And then equally what happened back on the way up in the last week or so. We've seen the QES go literally from 660 reclaim back the 50 the 50-day moving average at 715 and here we are in the 720s. And you know the one thing uh you know a lot of traders are exposed to is holding on, right? Uh you hold on once it works. You hold on twice it works. Hold on three times. It works. Eventually, at some point in your career, you're going to be faced with a situation that you can hold on, right? All you have to do is go back to uh 2007, 2008, 2022. That was the most uh the most recent uh example of what happens when the market gets violent and stays violent for that long. Uh in 2022, we were down like 30 35% if you guys remember uh on the NASDAQ. So, we are back above the 50-day moving average. Uh the second most important part uh well it was equally as important is the resilience right I think we have to talk about the resilience and the theme of what's happening uh during this earnings quarter we've noticed a lot of similarities of what happens when a stock beats their numbers they absolutely go crazy right case in point PLTR if you've been watching uh this broadcast or been in the webinar you've seen uh what PLTR and you've witnessed and you've traded uh what you've seen in PLTR are in the last couple of days has been absolutely awesome. Held came back in perfectly. Held the 200 day moving average, got above 59, got above 66 and yada yada yada. Here we are at 7240s. So you have one case of a stock that's gapping and going above a really good earnings report, right? Really, really strong. And then you have the other side of the equation. The stocks that had good earnings, wasn't a great initial reaction, but then recovered with a lot of vengeance. And again, you can see how many examples of that, right? You have Microsoft, oh, excuse me, wrong example. Microsoft is one of the ones that went gap and go. So, you have, for example, you have Google, right? You have Google. Uh, first example of a stock. I'm not sure why it's not coming up. All right. It's It's always good to record a video and and your e- signal is not working. Anyway, you have to take my word for it. Uh Google had uh a quarter came down very very aggressively, recovered and went nuts. Uh Tesla, right? And obviously this is going to go now for every single symbol that eigle is not working. All right, let me just restart it as I'm talking. Uh even Tesla, right? Tesla had a disgusting, nasty, aggressive move down. It felt like the stock was never going to get another uptick and then next thing you know, right? Next thing you know, you have a two-eek uh recovery. You can see here, right? Filing charts are working, right? You got a two-e recovery. Same thing with Google, right? Same thing with Google. Had a bad reaction to earnings, very great move up. Um, so it's a very very impressive, right? Impressive resilient market. And the last one obviously uh is uh Apple that's happening uh in the process. So, we're in a very resilient market, right? Very resilient market. You all you have to do is go back to Wednesday, right? SanDisk was the latest one that, you know, had the nasty reaction, right? Nasty reaction on earnings initially. Went down like 170 points and then just came back, right? And just came back. So, right now going into Monday's session, yes, we are above the 50-day moving average. Uh we're starting to kind of wind down on earnings, but the resilience, right? the resilience is still there in no bigger case than SpaceX right so you had this lock up period coming out uh what is was it a billion shares something like I don't even remember the exact number some ridiculous amount of shares being uh being released uh it looked like the stock was about to completely implode which was already imploding uh off the IPO high print and then next thing you know they engulfed right they engulfed the lockup um trapped you know late shorts and then next thing you know you you got a slew of 140 calls coming in for next week on SpaceX. I actually traded SpaceX pretty decently uh on Friday, but this is again a very very resilient, very aggressive market. If this is your first couple of years of trading, if you can if you can kind of wrap your brain around this, okay, I think slowly but surely every year is going to be much more organic, much more organized, a lot less noise than kind of what you're seeing now. But the point is it all starts with the macro, right? If you know the market is above the 50-day, there's a good chance if you have an uptrending symbol, right, that is sitting at support, it'll probably get bought up. However, and if we seen that obviously the opposite as soon as we close the 50-day, we got to get back above it or else again and even though it was a two week uh two week size sample, we did see a 60 70 point move on the cues uh to the downside. So again, we start the day up uh over the 50-day moving average. Last week's highs was 728.50. Obviously, that is going to be uh the next uh price discovery level going into next week. Uh the bulls want this rally to continue. You don't want to close below 70850 because that is the week's lows. And not only is that the week's lows, that is also the 5day. So above the 5day, good. Above the 50, great. any close below the 50 bad below the five not good as all. So be very very wary of that. So you have 72850 macro and then you have 708 macro uh to the downside. So let's talk about some ideas, right? Let's talk about uh some trades uh for potentially going into uh Monday. SpaceX, you know, trapped, right? Trapped a lot of shorts. Uh again, as I mentioned a couple of minutes ago, uh there is a lot of call buying coming in for this week's expiration. I saw a bunch 135s. I saw a bunch 140s. Uh obviously above Friday's channel. Can it get to 140? And again, you can see how it kind of correlates even though there's limited data behind this. You can see that there's a Ballinger band and there's a 34 EMA uh kind of lining up, right? Kind of lining up into this 13950 level. So, if we can get a move back above uh SpaceX, above Friday's channel, we should get a move at some point to that 139 uh 13950. Uh obviously, the value, right? The value on a SpaceX setup would be profit taken, right? You kind of want to see some profit taking uh at the open on Monday. And you would like to see this thing trap on the rising 60-minute support. If you look at the 60-minute support, and a lot of you guys who are not on the webinar, I've this is like completely a different language to you, but you can see how the stock keeps on hugging. You see how it keeps on hitting this orange line bounces, orange line bounces, orange line bounces, orange line bounces, orange line bounces, orange line bounces. Right? So, you kind of want to see kind of a a trend develop pre-market. Start putting in a little bit of a series of higher lows. And if it washes out to the bottom of the range and it holds, you can get long uh and see if it goes right to green. And obviously uh the hope is it takes out the previous uh day highs and uh really really goes uh Oracle, right? Let's talk about Oracle. I like this setup, man. I really do. I like this setup here. Uh beaten down stock. Again, he's a perfect example. When the stock gets above the 50-day, it went from 155 uh all the way to 250. When it lost the 50-day, it went from 187 all the way down to 116. Again, the power of the 50-day is very, very real. So, I like what it's doing right now. Number one, it's it's not coming off of overextended levels. It had a nice little rally here off the bottom. And now, it's just kind of going sideways, just kind of consolidating this flag here. Uh we did see some several 155 155 uh calls coming in short-term expiration. Some for this week, some for next week. As you can see, you have room all the way up to like 160, which is the 50-day moving average. But it needs to get back above last week's highs. If it could get back above last week's highs, um I do believe that there's a shot, right? Especially in this tape, how aggressive it is. Um I think there's an opportunity this thing gets back to uh the 50-day moving average, which is 160. And obviously there we'll have a completely different conversation. Uh Marvel, right? Look at Marvel. Marvel looks ready, man. Marvel looks ready. Had a again had an ugly move with the rest of the semis. Had a nice little recovery and just like Oracle is just kind of going sideways here, right? Still below the 50-day moving average, which is not a risk on scenario, but there is a trade setup there. Again, if it could get back above uh last week's highs, man, there is a shot this thing goes back to 240 uh which is the 50-day moving average. So, let's keep an eye on that. Avago, right? Avago was the big mover of the week. If you guys are in the webinar, uh, or if you've been following me, the 50-day break again was very, very important. You can see here, Vago so far has gone from 407 all the way up to the 431 level that reclaimed the 50-day moving average. We did see some pretty aggressive 450s uh coming in for the next couple of months. will be very very interesting if it could extend uh its rally, right? Uh Nvidia had a really great reversal this week. I think the stock again, here it is, reclaim back the 50-day moving average on August the 3rd. Again, you see a theme here, guys. Folks, if you're a brand new trader and you're tuning in for the first time, if there's nothing that you learn ever again from me, right, or anything that remotely uh interests you of what I have to say, just remember as soon as a stock reclaims the 50-day, it's a good thing, right? If it loses the 50-day, not so much. So, you can see really, really big move on Nvidia, I think it needs a couple of days rest, maybe a test of the 5day moving average potentially uh for a bounce. Uh the one stock I really liked this week, it got ruined was NBIS. Michael Barry. I mean, this thing looked just like a Vago and it was about to reclaim the 50-day. And then Michael Barry, as everybody knows, uh came out and uh you know, said he's short the stock and the stock got hit. You know, obviously has a you know, very very uh big following. So guys, always remember a setup is a setup, okay? You're not guessing when it's going to get there. The setup is a setup. I still have uh alerts set for this thing. We we don't care about stocks that haven't confirmed, right? There's 20,000 stocks out there. I can't be worried about stocks that haven't confirmed their technical levels. But if NBIS survives in the next uh couple weeks and gets back above the 50-day, I I definitely will be uh interested uh in the name. Uh SanDisk really really nice job uh really really nice job at least holding its earnings lows. You can see here on the 150day it held here four times. Having said that, if they continue to sell the memory names and you can again you can make a case this is still under a lot of supply under a lot of water you know you know let's just keep an eye on as a reference point. Let's keep an eye on this thing below uh its earnings lows. Um Micron you know nice little recovery. Um still flagging here. It's a little kind of kind of a delta neutral situation for me. It's a little bit kind of in the middle of the range. Would I'd like to see it get back above uh the June, excuse me, the July range. Yeah, if it does, you know, if it does, it it has like 40 50 points uh to the 50-day moving average, but something we definitely uh have to watch. It's kind of right now a little bit too early to tell. Uh it's in the middle of its range. Uh you got CRWV that is reporting um let me I think it's reporting on Tuesday or Wednesday. Let me just take a look. Um, it's a nice looking chart. It's too too bad they have earnings. I'm not going to I'm obviously not going to trade this thing into earnings. Uh, yeah, they come out on August the 11th, which is a Tuesday. They're reporting Well, let's keep guys, let's keep an eye on this thing. They're reporting Tuesday after hours. Let's keep an eye on this. And we still have Monday and Tuesday to trade it. If they could reclaim back last week's highs, potentially they could run this thing uh into earnings. Uh, let me see what else I want to give you guys. uh for Monday. Uh let me see if there's anything interesting I can give you guys. Uh for all you guys who trade these smaller names, uh look at Sou. Uh big move on uh Thursday above the 50-day moving average. Got rejected on the 150. And you can see here it got rejected on the 150 in May. Got rejected in 150 in June. It got rejected 150 on Thursday. If it could reclaim back the 150day moving average, uh this thing could wake up as well. and Uber, right? Look at Uber. Really, really aggressive move on Friday. Engulfed a lot of selling. It stopped again uh at the 150day moving average. Same case scenario. The 150 is a really it's almost like a brick wall, man. Stocks really need a lot of work to get through, but you can see uh it got rejected in May on the 150, got rejected in June on 150, and it didn't quite get there on Friday. But let's watch this thing. if this thing could just get back above the 150day moving average, this thing could really really stretch uh as well. So again guys, there's a lot of names uh obviously to cover. Uh the mega cap names are obviously my bread and butter. If you are uh interested in pivots uh and you are uh you know just just kind of stuck in your career guys come hang out with me 30 days uh see if it's a right fit for you and the only thing that you will possibly kind of leave behind is the quote unquote normal guys. God bless everybody. Have a wonderful Sunday and with God's help I'll see you on the field tomorrow. Take care.