Is the U.S.-Philippines Alliance Really at a Historic High?

A recent poll found that Filipinos are most confident in President Trump of any of 36 different countries surveyed. And this is a big year for the US Philippines alliance. It is celebrates 80 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries and 75 years since the mutual defense agreement. So what explains this level of popularity? How durable is this alliance in the shifting global environment? Today for a special episode of State of Play from the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, we are asking, is the US Philippines alliance at a historic high? [music] So, this is the first episode of State of Fate that we've recorded on the road. We are on the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum. Uh we're just starting the second day and I am absolutely delighted to have uh two guests today. So, Ambassador John Neonte um you're someone who truly needs no introduction, but I will just uh share some some very quick uh highlights. So the first director um of national intelligence, former deputy secretary of state and I think most relevant for today's discussion or especially relevant you are former ambassador to the Philippines and you're now the co-chair of the US Philippines society. So it is an honor to have you. Thank you so much for for doing this. >> Thank you. >> And of course Greg Polling, the director of the Southeast Asia program and also the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. Welcome back, Greg. and utterly absurd that you're having me here with Ambassador John Negropo. [laughter] I'm happy to do it. >> So, I want >> You're on the record. [laughter] >> So, I want to start by talking a little bit about those recent poll results that showed that Filipinos are the most confident in President Trump of any of the 36 countries that were surveyed. Um, why to what do you attribute the popularity of the US at this moment among Filipinos? >> Well, first of all, thank you for having me on your program. I I I think part of it just goes back to the long historic relationship between the our two peoples which after all doesn't just date to the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations which we're celebrating this year but which goes back to uh the original relationship uh between our two countries after the uh Spanishamean war and and and all the history that binds us. Also, uh there's a huge diaspora of Filipinos in the United States. Uh millions strong. I forget the number now. I think it's probably around 4 million people. >> 4 and a half million. >> There we are. Filipino defense. Yeah. >> So, I mean, I think there's an inbuilt uh admiration for appre and appreciation for the United States of America. coming to America has represented a major development in the lives of many millions of of Filipinos. And I think there's probably and because of the English language uh facility. I think also there's a a better understanding and appreciation for our people and our culture just as a result of be able of the ability to communicate as effectively as we do. So that may be some of the fact. Yeah. Well, I I would just flag that while those numbers are are accurate, we have to remember that every US president has effectively sky-high approval ratings in the Philippines. I mean, at least in the modern polling area era. And the numbers for the current Trump administration are considerably lower than they were for Biden or for Trump one. So you are seeing the same decrease in US soft power here you're seeing across the world but it is starting from a much higher point than say Indonesia or Malaysia bean if we're going to compare it to neighboring countries. It's interesting so and when we talk about the alliance for those of our listeners and and audience who don't closely follow this what are the foundation the foundational pieces of that like how what are the what's the core of the relations between the two countries? Well, I think the core emanates from the common experience of uh World War II. Uh the fighting that occurred then, the liberation of the Philippines by General MacArthur, the restoration of u Filipino and American governance here and and independence shortly thereafter. So that was sort of a a foundational uh basis and then we we progressed from that once and then we're now celebrating the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries and uh not long thereafter we establish this mut mutual defense treaty. So we took a stand very early on in the independence of uh this country to make commitments to the security and the well-being of a Filipino nation and people uh and uh we've uh we've kept safe of that. >> And is that are those defense ties continuing to grow closer? Is there deepening? Well, I think they got a spurt, a boost, if you will, with 911. >> I think the Philippines may have been the first country to which we sent troops after the events of 911, that sent contingents down to Mindanao to help deal with some of the issues down there. And u and and we've been building that ever since. And uh in in recent years with uh the changing geopolitical landscape if you will >> of this part of the world um we've we've sought ways uh to enhance the relationship and also to interest other uh affected states in the region other uh like-minded democratic countries uh to uh join with us uh in uh taking an interest in the well-being and security of the Filipino nation. >> You know, I I would frame this as um maybe kind of three acts of of the alliance and we are now well into the third act. So the first was the post uh World War II cold war era alliance represented by the the military basing agreement which expired 1992 and the MDT which was basically the US using the Philippines as a as a staging area both for counter Soviet operations and for the war in Vietnam. You know, phase two after kind of a 10-year hiatus was the counterterror mission that I mean really kind of had its root in the 1997 bidding forces agreement but took off with operation during freedom Philippines after 9/11 and that wholly dominated at least the security relationship during the Bush administration and the start of the Obama's administration. And phase three is then this pivot toward external defense where the alliance has been modernized and looks a lot more like say the US alliances with Japan or Korea or Australia or even NATO. And that's been a little slower to eventuate since the Obama administration, but has seen remarkable progress since I think particularly the fall of 2021 when uh the two sides issued what was called the joint vision statement for a 21st century partnership and in the space of about 3 years uh built up all these new institutions um information sharing agreements uh expansion of basing agreements huge increase in US uh funding for military finance for the Philippines that has created the structure. It's basically a mirror of the structures that you see in all the other postc cold war US alliances that had survived. >> And we should probably talk about the economic piece as well and the Luzon economic corridor is a big new initiative or newish it was what announced four years ago or yeah um but the commercial ties are growing investment is growing as well. Is that is that becoming um as important as the military cooperation side or or is it catching up? Is it sort of how would you characterize the importance of economic ties? >> Well, it's waxed and waned, hasn't it? In part um because of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the early 90s, which was a big setback both to the base talks that we were having then, but also to the economy of the Philippines. And I think and now that there's been recovery, economic recovery in both uh the base areas in Sububi and Clark Air Force Base. Um you see a lot more economic opportunities have appeared uh for cooperation between the US, other countries and the Philippines. and uh uh a lot more is being done now also by uh Japan. I think one of the big new factors in in all of this equation has been the growing uh interest of Japan in both the economic prosperity and the safety of the Filipino people. So uh various the combination of factors have joined I think to increase the amount of economic interest and the amount of economic activity that is going on between the Philippines and its uh democ democratic friends and neighbors. All the while given its proximity to the People's Republic of China, it it maintains also a pretty robust economic relationship with that country. >> And I want to talk about China in a second, but Greg, can I ask you about the economic piece as well? >> Yeah. >> Um, how do you how do you see it? >> Well, I think that's all right. you know the for for roughly 30 years the the last decade or so of the Marcos dictatorship through the the first couple decades of the uh people power era in the Philippines. The Philippines was hung with this reputation of the sick man of Asia. Low growth, high debt, um relatively high unemployment that really started to change in in the Austin from the time of the Aino administration to now. also a span of of roughly 15 years, Philippine GDP more than doubled um has considerably more than doubled. Uh pretty robust economic growth uh has until about a year and a half ago, the Philippines was projected by all the the multilateral development banks to be the second or third fastest growing economy in Asia behind India and Vietnam. Some of the the shine has come off of that over the last year and a half by a combination of a the significant corruption scandal here that has constrained public spending and then the uh real horrendous impacts of the US Israeli war on Iran. We led the Philippines to have the highest inflation in Asia. Um but I think those are short-term headwinds. >> The macroeconomics haven't changed. The Philippines is one of the healthiest developing economies in Southeast Asia. It's relatively resilient. uh hugely friendly to American investment and there's an enormous strategic uh imperative for US to do this. I think there's a recognition there's a reason that the Lucan Economic Corridor which was part of the PGI during the Biden administration is basically the only PGI program that the Trump administration kept because it's just too strategically important to abandon. Um, any Philippine president, whether it's the current administration, Marcos, or whoever comes next in 2028, is going to need to tell their voters that a close alliance with the Americans delivers benefit for the average Filipino. But there must be an economic component that goes along with the military component or the alliance is too fragile. >> So, talking about the um China factor here, this has come up in lots of the discussions and the panels that we've been having. Is it fair to say that China has become kind of the glue that holds the alliance together? Um, or is that overstating the importance of China to US Filipino relations? >> I think it may be it's certainly a factor. There's no question. China is uh hard to ignore >> uh for its impact on on on the entire East Asia-Pacific region and the world for that matter given the size and scope of its economy. So you can't you can never rule them out. But um it's not the only thing and I'm not I think there's too many other factors contributing to the glue that holds uh this together. Starting with history, the security relationships that have developed over the years, the renewed interest in the Philippines now from not only ourselves but other countries such as Japan, which we've talked about already, but also uh Korea and others. So, uh it's a factor, but it's not the only factor. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I I suppose I would I would agree if we define the alliance narrowly as the mutual defense treaty and the elevation of things like the enhanced defense cooperation agreement over the last 10 years then sure it the the external threat the Philippines feel from China and the South China Sea and the shared US threat reception along the first island chain is what's driving that military component but the broader partnership if we're using alliance in the broad sense not just the treaty that is founded on now more than 120 years of shared on experience something that the US does not have with any other Asia-Pacific country. >> Mhm. >> And then I think also we have to credit the the people in the government of the Philippines themselves for some of the things that have helped hold this together. And I I think particularly and having lived through a bit of it and watched it happen, the role that the Filipino government itself, particularly foreign minister Albert Del Rosario and during that presidency, the resistance to China's uh encroachment uh on the uh uh maritime jurisdiction issue both here in the Philippines but as well in other countries in Southeast Asia and the fact that the Philippines led a successful fight to get its jeritical position recognized by the arbitral tribunal which said loud and clear for everybody to hear that China was wrong and the Philippines were right. >> And I don't think there's anything the Chinese can do about that. And u while they sometimes just try to slough it off and poo poo it. In fact, uh I I think it's quite an embarrassment that the their position was robustly set back by these rulings by the international tribunal. >> So the question I posed at the start was is the US Philippines alliance at a high point and I want to look a little bit forward and consider what might derail this alliance or kind of undermine it. what challenges might we see that could be difficult to overcome? And one of them is, you know, a real crisis that could emerge. A Taiwan contingency um would would clearly be a very big challenge for the whole region. Um when you look ahead, what what what areas of potential concern or or what what things do you look to that might shift the alliance going forward? >> Well, complacency for one. You could have a piece a period of peace and quiet for quite a while and and sort of become comfortable with the status quo and forget that there's probably things that need to continue to be done to strengthen these relationships, not only bilaterally between the United States and the Philippines, but from the other likeminded countries in the region who have an interest in peace and stability in uh Southeast Asia as a whole and in the Pacific region and in that I think uh the US the Philippines are not the only players there are others and most notably in recent years the rather dramatic change in Japan's approach to some kind of forward defense and uh heightened security posture in this part of the world. Well, that work has got to continue. We shouldn't we shouldn't uh forget to do it. >> Yeah. >> And that can happen from administration to administration. Definitely. They come in, they have a new priority, and all of a sudden, >> oh gee, oh yeah, we forgot. We got to get back to that >> kind of thing. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. If if we're thinking about um kind of short sharp crises, then um the one that comes to mind is the South China Sea contingency. So if China were to use military force against the Philippine, I believe that the US even under this administration would fulfill its defense obligation. But I don't know that and neither do Filipinos. So a perception that the US fails in its legal and moral obligation to its oldest treaty ally would shatter the alliance, at least the security alliance. Um but pretty strong efforts have been made on the part of the United States to reassure the Philippines that we would be there if the balloon went up. So >> but then you know last months we have Elbridge Colby you know second highest ranking defense official in the United States come to the Philippines and for the first time in 15 years not say the word China or South China see your speech. >> So there are plenty of reasons. >> Yeah. He's been dying to do that for quite a >> No. >> I know Bridge it. worked for me and when I was the director of national intelligence. >> But so you know this is why I think we none of us can honestly tell Filipino counterparts that we are 100% sure what the Trump administration would do in an armed contingency in South China Sea. [clears throat] Um but the the other danger on the military side is um US senior US officials coming to the Philippines and making speeches that imply that the US is only here for a Taiwan contingency because the attacks from both the right and the left of the current administration on the progress in the alliance basically boil down to you're being fooled by the Americans are only using you as a launching pad for operations in Taiwan. They don't care about the Philippines. They don't care about some and US officials need to be extremely cautious not to play into that narrative which I don't think is true but is a major political vulnerability of the alliance. >> Okay. So I need to let you get back to the forum because it's about to start the second day. But I have three quick questions for for you each. That's okay. So firstly, one word or phrase to describe the US Philippines alliance. Ambassador Liberate. >> Historic. oldest. >> Yeah. Okay. [laughter] >> Okay. Well, wait. Sorry. Sinist. >> So, next. The US Philippines alliance needs more what? I think it it needs more thought about how the value of this alliance can be uh and this mutual defense treaty and the other relationships that have already been developed, how they can be leveraged and amplified in in in an intelligent way. not one that provokes China, but one that um helps uh increase stability in the region. >> I we need more supporters on the US side. Every Filipino knows the United States. Far too few Americans really know the Philippines. >> That's a really good point. >> Yeah, thank you. I broke a clock. Okay, so the last one then. So, if you could force every US policy maker working on the Philippines to do one thing before taking the job, what would it be? >> Come here. >> Yeah. Okay. [laughter] Have a look at what we're talking about here. >> Yeah. Yeah. The I the exact same. You can't you can't swing a dead cat in Washington without hitting somebody who's been to Tokyo and sold. How many have really been to Manila? >> Yeah. >> Well, this is my first time here. I'm very grateful for the opportunity to have come. I'm looking forward to getting to see a bit more of it after the conference is over. But um thank you so much Ambassador Negro Ponte. Thank you Greg. Good luck with the rest of the the conference and and everyone can watch it online as well. So uh we'll link to the videos. Thanks so much. >> Thank you. >> So to sum up then so the foundation of relations are a long history long-standing mutual defense commitments and also really important diaspora ties between the US and the Philippines. But relations between the two countries are evolving. We see now emerging structures uh in defense ties that mirror other US alliances. There's more of a pivot towards external defense. On the economic side, there is growing economic interest and emerging opportunities there. Although we're seeing some short-term headwinds, uh basically this is a healthy and growing economic relationship. We talked about China. China is difficult to ignore. It is the foundation perhaps of the defense cooperation part of the alliance. Um but it's not the glue that holds the alliance together more broadly. It's about so much more than just that. So when we talked about challenges um Greg pointed out that the popularity of President Trump that seems very high is actually lower than other recent US presidents including President Trump in his first term. So there has been a hit to US soft power recently and Ambassador Negra Ponte said complacency could emerge as a real issue here. Uh and Greg also highlighted the potential challenge of a South China Sea contingency some questions among Filipinos. Would the US really fulfill its mutual defense obligations? So then in some it is historic long-standing ties that are evolving and expanding. But we shouldn't take it for granted. Alliances need work to maintain them, to strengthen them, and to reassure the other partner. For more on the US Filipino Alliance, I would really encourage you to watch some of the sessions that have been held here in Manila for the Manila Strategy Forum. We will link to them in the show notes below. Um, and I would just like to say another huge thank you to Ambassador Negra Ponte and to Greg Polling. Thanks for listening to State of Play. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe to it wherever you heard it. And you can find more analysis at www.csis.org/geopolitics. [music] This podcast was produced by Sarah Baker. Until next time.