Video summary
The video provides a detailed mathematical analysis of whether the "Magnificent Monsters" Yu-Gi-Oh! set is worth opening, concluding that while the average expected value is nearly equal to the $35 MSRP price of a mini box, the experience is highly inconsistent due to erratic pull rates. The creator calculated that over 96% of the time, a pack will yield only standard Ultra Rare cards, resulting in an average loss of roughly $21 for the majority of buyers who do not hit the high-rarity pulls. However, the set is designed as a collector's chase rather than a player-focused product, meaning its primary value lies in the potential to pull massive Grand Master or Starlight Full Art cards that can be worth thousands of dollars, such as the Dark Magician or Dark Magical Curtain, which could theoretically turn a single box into a six-figure windfall.
A significant portion of the analysis focuses on the unpredictable nature of the card distribution, with the creator noting severe "clumping" issues where certain high-value cards are either impossible to pull or appear in massive clusters depending on the specific production run. While initial calculations based on four cases suggested a 0.63% chance for Starlight Extended Arts and a 1 in 12,000 chance for Grand Masters, subsequent streams involving hundreds of boxes revealed drastically lower ratios, with some runs failing to produce any high-rarity cards at all. This volatility means that the expected value calculations are tentative; if the pull rates continue to be skewed against buyers, the actual return on investment could drop significantly below the median, making the set a risky purchase for those who cannot afford to lose money repeatedly in pursuit of a rare hit.
In comparison to other recent sets like "Chaos Origins," which demonstrated a more stable economy where selling singles often covers the cost of opening packs, Magnificent Monsters presents a steeper financial risk due to its reliance on extreme outliers for profitability. The creator argues that while the set is not intended to provide players with competitive cards or cheap reprints, it offers a unique opportunity to chase legendary artwork that has never been seen in Yu-Gi-Oh! before at this price point. Ultimately, the recommendation hinges on the viewer's mindset: if one is willing to accept a 96% chance of financial loss for the thrill of potentially pulling a card worth $25,000 or more, the set is recommended as a fun collector's gamble, but it should not be viewed as a reliable way to make money or complete a binder.
Read the full video transcript
Today I'm taking a deep dive for
expected value when opening a mini box
of magnificent monsters and it's bleak.
What's up guys? We are back with another
video and today's a little bit of a
different video than what you've seen on
the channel for the most part. Overall,
I've opened a lot of Magnificent
Monsters recently for locals and for
whatnot. And I've seen a lot of comments
complaining about how bad the set is.
And most of those comments have to do
with the cost of the set. It's $35 a
mini box for only three packs in a promo
pack. The reprints aren't good enough.
Are they correct in saying this set
sucks? So, I decided to go in and do a
little bit of math. I took a deep dive
in the Magnificent Monsters pull rates
and the values of the cards you could
pull. And here is what I found. Here is
a spreadsheet. Don't get too scared if
you're scared of math. I will try to
make it make sense to you. It's a bunch
of scary numbers. But if you take a look
here, when you open a Magnificent
Monsters box, if you guys have seen any
of my videos, you know this or you've
seen my shorts, there are three packs
and there's a promo pack. Overall, you
get 18 cards for $35. That's MSRP. If
you take a look over here, it's actually
$48 on Walmart now. Occasionally,
they'll let you buy them for 35 or even
32 if you buy a display. So, they'll
occasionally flash them up at a lower
price. They've been doing that a lot
recently. Also, you can check out
Sassiato. He's got displays of 10 mini
boxes for $400. And if you use my code
magnificent rux 5, you get 5% off. So
400 minus 5% you can get 10 mini boxes.
So that's a little bit over MSRP, but
not much more. Just FYI. But we're going
to be using MSRP in the calculations
today, which is $35 a mini box to
calculate just how worth it it is. And
we'll try to answer if it's worth
opening, etc., etc. Here are all the
ultra rares listed out. And if you don't
know, the main card set is four ultra
rares in the pack. And then one card
that could be ultra rare, it could be
overframe in ultra or starlight or it
can be grandmaster rare. So most of the
cards you get are these ultra rares
listed here. So I put all the values
from TCG player low. And then I divided
them by the total number of ultra rares,
which is 117, unless I missed one, but
it'll be pretty close to average 73
cents per ultra rare. So you get an
average expected value for the four
ultra rares you're going to pull, plus
potentially a fifth one. We're doing a
little expected value calculation today.
So what that means is what you can
expect when you open a $35 box, what you
get. We're doing it pack by pack. So
ultra is what you're mostly expecting is
four of those. We'll skip the secret and
starlights cuz they're in the promo
pack. We'll go to the ultra extended
art. If you are going to pull an ultra
extended art, it'll be in the fourth
slot of the five cards. And here are the
total values here. A lot of the ultra
extended arts seem reasonable on the
price. The secret extended arts, on the
other hand, are pretty high. And keep in
mind when watching this that a lot of
the values will change cuz it is a new
set. They'll go up or down. But based on
what I'm hearing for the pull rates,
which we'll get into in just a minute,
they may or may not go up or down, but
it could even go up. So, the total of
all 20 of these Ultra Extended Arts is
$1,282. You divide that by the 20 and
you get $6410 average. So, if I pull an
Ultra Extended Art, the average price
would be $64. Now, that's an average
median. If you pull the lowest, it's
$15. I didn't sort these, but 15 is the
lowest, and I think 200 is the highest.
So, you've got a big range there. If you
pull the $200 one, you're obviously
doing way better than 64. If you're
pulling 15, you're doing way worse. Or
you can just pull in the middle here,
which there's nothing that close to 64.
I guess 72 is the closest you can get.
No, 68 here. Uh, and 56. So, yeah, there
there's kind of some that you could pull
pretty close to the median if you get
them. Then I did the Starlights, which
there are 20 as well because they're
just the same, basically the same list.
And you get $11,578.
This is where I think this calculation
could change, but I have to roll with
what I have right now, which is TCG
Player Low. There aren't a ton of
listings for a lot of these because if
you have not paid attention, these
Starlight Full Arts are absolutely
impossible to pull. Uh some places
they're a little bit easier. Seems like
there's some clumping going on where
they're not being pulled at all. So
maybe these prices hold up or even get
more expensive because they're so
annoying to pull, but we'll have to see
how that goes in the future. These are
normally the highest rarity. If there
wasn't Grandmaster, this would be like
the pinnacle of rarity, but we'll get
into Grandmaster in a second, which is a
whole other thing. So then if you just
take the total number divided by 20, you
end up with $578 average. And that's
being pulled up a lot by the dark
magician and the dark magical curtain,
which are ridiculous on TCG player. I
personally would never pay $2,500 for a
not even the highest rarity. Grandmaster
is the highest rarity. So you have like
the second highest rarity at $2,500. You
could buy ghost stardust near mint for
less than that. You could buy PSA 10s
from Metal Raiders for less than that.
It's an amazing looking card. It's an
awesome card. I really want the secret
dark magician in full art, but I call it
for some reason I kept putting secret.
It's starlight, but I I can't pay that
even close to that amount. I had one
offered for a little bit less than that
and I'm like I can't. That's just like I
was expecting 500700,
but you know you $25,000. I just can't
do it. But that'll probably come down.
But maybe not just because they're so so
hard to pull. Maybe this is actually a
bargain price because this set is going
to be very limited. It's widely
available right now, but there will
never be a reprint unless it's
unlimited. and that's going to be a
completely different story. So,
obviously you can either get a $2,500ish
card or you can get a $200 or $190 card,
which honestly Astrograph sorcerer seems
way expensive for $193. Who's paying
that? Who wants Astrograph Sorcerer full
art Starlight? I guess some people do,
but at $200, how many people are really
paying that? So, to me, this number is
going to change quite a bit and go down.
So, that's going to take away from the
expected value of the polls, obviously.
But, I could be wrong and maybe because
there's no more of this coming out and
the full arts are super hype and it's
really impossible to get the Grand
Masters. People settle for these
Starlight overframes instead. And I
tried to stick with the correct
terminology, extended art, but as you
can see, I put secret rare and I'm
calling them overframes. I'm struggling.
Now, we check out the Grand Masters. And
this one was almost impossible because
there's only some sales data. There's no
listings for a lot of these. So, a lot
of this is pure speculation on my end,
just guessing what these might be. And
I'm trying to come up with a number. So,
Dark Magician, I did hear through the
grapevine one did sell for 20K. It
wasn't a public sale. Uh, but obviously
when it's not a public sale, you know,
take it with a grain of salt. That
doesn't mean it's worth 20,000, but I'm
using it for my numbers and my
guesstimation. It's at least uh someone
said it happened and it is less than
Dark Magical Curtain, which is at 25K
and I did hear about a 27K uh also
private. So, that's all sort of
speculation when it's not a public sale.
And even in these public high-end sales,
it's kind of like, how legit is it with
this whole Pokemon thing going on?
People are selling stuff for hundreds of
thousands to each other. And you're
like, how real is that? Are you guys
just inflating the market so that you
can then sell to some other sucker and
make a ton of money? You have to be
careful with these high values. But I'm
doing my best to do legit sales and just
kind of estimate the values here. So, if
you are buying stuff like this, always
be very careful on what you're paying.
If you're paying tens of thousands, even
thousands, even hundreds of dollars,
usually at hundreds, there's a lot more
of a card like that. and it's a little
bit easier to see real sales on TCG or
eBay or auction houses, etc. Flaming
Wingman is one that got posted publicly
on Geeky Corner. He's been posting a lot
of the sales uh over on Instagram. So,
that one I feel like probably did
happen. Uh Stardust is a complete guess,
but this could definitely be more close
to 7750 if I I I really don't know.
Like, maybe it is 7750. I put 10K cuz
it's an iconic one. And uh you know,
this being 20, it's like half of Dark
Magician kind of makes sense. Same with
Shining Flare. This is probably around
Flame Wingman to be honest. I would
change like these to like something like
this. Uh, contract witch. I think one of
the links sold for 1,800 I heard. So, I
put all the links at 1,800 because
they're all kind of the same level of
popularity. And I'm like 1,800 is
probably I mean, a link is probably the
lowest along with pendulum. That kind of
makes sense to be around, you know,
a,000 something, but they're so hard to
pull. They're just not the one you
actually want. Because I feel like most
of the time people pull a Grandmaster
Pendulum or Link and they don't really
play modern half the time because this
is more of a collector product and
they're just like, "All right, I'll just
sell this." Like they're not really
looking to keep it. Uh, and they just
get moved. Like I get offered these all
the time. And the last few sets that
I've had the Grand Masters, it's like,
"Hey, I got this one. You want it?" And
it's like number 61 out of 100 pendulum
guy. I'm like, "No, I I don't at all,
but thank you for offering me." And they
also do not want it. So, it's kind of a
weird spot for those. maybe somebody
that plays that deck, a rocket
grandmaster in the deck. They're they're
weird. I I don't really know how to feel
about the ones that are more modern
modern cards. So, let me know if you're
like somebody who's like, "Yeah, 1,800
Cyber Contract Witch up my alley." And
don't don't be like, "Yeah, what do you
mean you don't like Cyber?" I'm not
saying it's a bad card, but for the
price of $1,800,
that that's a whole different story
about how much somebody would like it.
You know, it's not as collectible as a
lot of these other things. Wing Kuribo I
think could go up because the Kuribo
below at 9250 actually did get posted as
a real sale. So maybe Wing Kuribo could
do pretty well as well. It's not as cool
of an artwork in my opinion, but maybe
it's more than 4K, but I'm not going to
speculate. Ga Girl I think is a pretty
popular one. So put it at 5,000, but it
could be less. Utopia, same thing. It's
an exceed, so it's a little newer, but
Utopia is a very popular monster and
also a very cool artwork. So I have it a
little bit higher than some of the other
ones. Astrograph Pendulum. Synchro
Emergency is a trap card. That is kind
of iffy. I mean, it's probably the least
interesting. It's not even a monster.
So, I have that at 1500. Horoscope
Sorcerer. I don't know why I have this
at 2K instead of 1,800. I think I just
like the artwork. This, as you can see,
it's complete guess. I don't know if
you've seen any of these sales. I can
update this spreadsheet. Uh, Gaga
Magician 3K because it is one of the
lower valued uh overframes, but I think
the the art's really cool. So, I think
some people might actually want to keep
that for a collection. Uh, this I think
was a sale. Uh, I don't know about the
rest of these. I think Odd Eyes actually
did sell for 4K and 3500. So, I just put
at the higher one. And then these two
are both links. So, uh, this is all sort
of guesstimation. As you can see, it's
like $110,000 if you got all of them.
And then the average is 6,100 because
you can go anywhere from 25,000 to,500.
It's a big gap. So, all that being said,
then we get to do a lot more math here.
So, what I did, I pulled the value per
variable card. And what I meant by the
variable card is when you're opening a
pack of Magnificent Monsters, you have
the five cards. Four of them guaranteed
ultras. Then you have the fifth card
which is variable. Could be the ultra
rare or it could be the extended art
starlight extended art ultra or the
grandmaster. It could be any of those
three. So you had to pull the pull
rates. So the pull rate for getting just
an ultra rare according to my math which
I used of from my four cases opened and
[music] I I need to talk about this now.
The pull rates are ridiculous. They're
completely all over the place. My pull
rates don't seem to apply to the next
person's pull rates. They seem to be
completely random. There's either a
clumping issue or they didn't put any
sort of standard ratio and just
completely threw in random stuff in
random packs. I assume that they had a
case ratio of some kind when they
printed it and there was just some
errors where some didn't get put in or
they got clumped into another one, but I
could be wrong there. I have no idea.
I'm just speculating. So, because of
that, I had to just go off of what I've
opened, which was my four cases. I did
not keep up with my whatnot pulls, but I
can tell you for a fact on whatnot, we
opened 90 mini boxes and got absolutely
destroyed. We had way worse ratios than
I had in my four cases from my local
store. So, the ratios here are going to
be tentative. They could be changed.
They're not guaranteed. Keep that in
mind. But based on what I had in 480
packs, I pulled three total Starlight
Extended Arts out of 480 packs. So, if
you see that there, that equals 0.63.
So 63% chance to actually pull one from
a pack. That's one singular pack. Then
here on the Ultra Extended Arts, I
actually pulled 14 from 480. That was
292 aka 2.9% to actually pull an ultra
out of a singular pack. The Grand
Masters I had to estimate because
there's no real way to know this ratio
unless you like work at the factory,
which would be nice. You guys hit me up.
I'd love to have that info. I put them
at one in a 100 cases. So 1 in 12,000
packs as you can see. 0 01 or 0.01%
chance to pull a grandmaster. And yes, I
know some of you have opened one mini
box and got one. Like, congrat like
congrats. Everybody's happy for you.
That does not make a ratio. That doesn't
mean every time you open one, you get
one. Obviously, you guys were the lucky
few to pull them in a small amount,
which is amazing. And hopefully you got
the dark magician or dark magical
curtain. Those are amazing. I had to fix
a quick uh decimal mess up there, but
that leaves us with this. So, we have
the ultra rares. This is the chance to
pull an ultra rare as your fifth card.
This is where it gets bleak, okay guys?
So, you're opening a pack and you get
four ultras and you might get that fifth
ultra as something else, whether it's
extended art or grandmaster. Your
chances of getting five ultra rares is
96.45%.
So, over 96 out of 100 times, you're
just getting five ultra rares. And keep
in mind, I am separating ultra rares
from ultra extended arts. Those are
completely different things here. You're
not getting the ultra extended art.
You're not getting a Starlite extended
art. You're not getting a grandmaster.
You can't pull the Starlights in the
main set. So, you are just getting five
ultra rares, regular ultra rares, 96.45%
of the time. So, most mini boxes you
spend 35 and you get nothing but ultra
rares. That is excluding the promo pack,
which we will get to. You have this tiny
chance to get the ultra and the
starlight up to the one total pack. Now,
let's get into what's the value of that.
the average price per rarity which we
pulled from those other ta uh tabs I
showed you guys earlier 73 cents for
every ultra rare you're getting four
maybe most likely five of those 96% of
the time ultra extender you're getting
64 570 and 6,000 so then we get to
multiply the numbers together so when
you have a tiny 01% chance to pull a
grandmaster you times that by the
expected average value here you get
about 51 cents of grandmaster value per
pack opened and it seems weird because
you're like I didn't I don't get a
grandmaster How do I get value out of
it? The opportunity of pulling the
grandmaster adds 51 cents of value there
because once you open enough packs,
assuming it is one in 100 cases or
whatever, I guess uh once you open
enough packs, you'll get a grandmaster
on average and then you'll get a $6,100
pack or card on average. And then it
will become 51 cents per pack on
average. I know, a little confusing, but
you have to factor in potential pull
rates there. You get 51 cents there with
the Starlight Extended Arts because they
are a little bit inflated in my opinion
on the prices. You actually get $3.62 of
expected value from the Starlight
Extended Arts because you have this 63%
chance of pulling one. And if you pull
one, it is a hundreds of dollar card,
giving you $3.62 of value just for
opening it up and having that chance.
The Ultras are much lower at $64, so you
only get $1.87. But funny enough, if you
look, if that one in a 100 cases is
true, the Ultras and Starlight expected
value is actually way higher than the
Grandmaster. You're getting more value
from the cards that aren't even numbered
just because they're easier to pull and
their values uh stack up a little better
based on how hard they are to pull. Now,
this could all change that these are
actually one in 10 cases, which I highly
doubt they are because there's only
1,800 of them in the Americans region.
So, we've got a lot of countries in that
region that are going to be opening the
set. Then you have to factor in the
ultra rares, which there's one of them
that may or may not be in there because
you're only getting the 73 cents 96% of
the time. You have to times it by that
to get 70 cents. So you can expect that
fifth slot to be.7 cents of ultra rare
value because you're most likely going
to get the ultra rare, but you might
not, which gives you $6.70 in that
variable card slot. So that one card
slot is worth $6.70 every pack. And then
you have to add in four more cards at
73. You're going to end up with $9.60 60
cents per pack on Magnificent Monsters
just of expected value. Doesn't mean
you're going to pull anything, but it
might mean that you pull something
awesome. And we're baking that in with
the numbers. Let's quickly run through
the promo pack. It's very similar. The
secret rares, I added all of those up,
and I did these without actually putting
them in the spreadsheet, but it's 68
cents on average per secret rare. Then
the pull ratios, according to my first
opening, which they were much better
than the whatnot stream where they went
way down. We had 85% of the time we got
a secret rare in that third slot and
then there was 15% of the time you got a
Starlight. So the average price is here.
It looks like I did these a little
backwards. This is the average price and
then this is multiplied by the 85. So
this is actually your uh value per
variable card. This is actually the
average price. So 23 and you get $359
expected value because I don't know why
I have two of the same column here. It's
making confusing. But that's $4.27
of expected value from your one card
slot. And then you have the two secret
rares you have to add in as well at 80
each. You add that up, that becomes
$5.87.
Average expected value from your promo
pack, which you might have peaked at the
spreadsheet already, but that means your
expected value is $34.67
nearly the $35 MSRP, which actually
shocked me. I did not think it would be
that close. I knew the grand masters
being super expensive would help a lot,
but the fact that on average you're
actually going to end up pulling nearly
$35 in value from a $35 MSRP box makes
me think that Konami probably did this
calculation beforehand, but they would
have even less info because they don't
have any sales. I guess they could have
used the Japanese Grandmaster sales to
kind of figure it out, but nearly $35 in
an average scenario. But let's go to
what happens if you have not an average
mini box. Yeah, I mean here I I showed
the average mini box. We lost 33 cents,
but not average. Let's say we go to
medium low and you get all ultra rares,
which happens 96.45% of the time. You
get $13.28 on average. Now, sometimes
you'll get the best ultra rare air,
sometimes you get the worst. And this
1328 will actually be lower or higher
based on that. But if you get the
average, you lose $21.72.
That's 2/3 of your money. And that's
pretty brutal. And that's where I think
a lot of people are feeling the hurt.
96.45% 45% of people are opening a box
and getting a $21.72
loss. And now that we're 25 minutes in,
I should mention that obviously Yu-Gi-Oh
cards are not all about value, right?
This whole thing is about the value and
what you're getting back, etc. But you
have to factor in even when you lose
$21.72, you got some playable cards, you
got some reprints, you got some chibies
you like, you bought Yu-Gi-Oh cards, and
you like Yu-Gi-Oh cards, I hope, if
you're buying them. And the fact that
they can be used in the card game, they
can be used in your binder. You can just
love the cards and collect them and set
them up and display them. There's a lot
of things you can do with them means
that just because you lost $20 doesn't
mean it's a complete waste of money. And
I know I needed to say that cuz
sometimes people watch these videos and
they just get upset. They're like, how
it's all about money, man. It's like,
yeah, I know it's not. But one of the
main complaints about this set was the
value. And I'm trying to see, is it
actually as bad as people think? Is it
worse? I don't know. You guys are going
to have to make your distinction based
on this uh review here. So then we go to
the reason people actually open this
set, which is the median high, the
grandmaster pull. People are opening
this set. They want the full art
starlights and they want the grand
masters. If you pull a grandmaster, on
average, you're going to get a $6,122
card in a $35 box. So I didn't even like
do the math. Like I didn't even like add
in the other things you were going to
get from that. I didn't multiply it by
multiple pack. like you'd get ultra
rares and stuff as well, but I think the
6,100 does enough of for what you need
to see. And then if you factor in the
fact that it could be 25,000 or more,
you know, th this is the reason you are
opening. You make six grand opening a
mini box immediately. And that really
shows what this product is. It's a
collector set to open up and chase
massive cards. This set is not a player
set. And it replaced a player set in the
Megatins, which made a lot of players
mad. completely understandably. But in
the end, it is not a player set at all.
This set is a $2 per card set that is
purely here to chase massive cards and
maybe reprint a few cool old cards like
Woku, put some chibies in the TCG, etc.
This is not here to give you all the
missing cards that you need to win your
locals. And I'll say that some people
say there are good, it's like, yeah,
there are some good reprints, but
overall, this is not a mega 10 where
it's just giving you tons of cheap
reprints. So, I thought this was really
interesting to look at. And because I've
never done an expected value of a pack
before, I figured I'd do another set to
show you just how it looks and how Mammo
compares. So, we can look at Chaos
Origins, which is a recent set. I kind
of wanted to look at the Mega Tens cuz
the people compare these to the Megains
a lot. But because the Megains do so
well at the beginning and then
everything, you know, kind of crashes
immediately after because they're all
reprints meant for that current time. I
decided Chaos Origins would be a little
bit better because the Mega Tens are all
they're kind of a few month product and
then they're not really worth it anymore
because all those cards are not good
anymore. So, people don't really want
them. So, we have a core set here. A
little bit different than a reprint set,
but you get nine cards a pack. So, we
have to factor that in. I did all the
supers and the ultras and the secrets.
Here are the pull rates. You get a super
rare in every pack if you don't get
another high rarity. Well, this is much
easier to calculate because you usually
get two ultra rares in a box. Meaning
you get 4 divided by 24 which is 1670 or
you get a secret rare which is 2 and 24
which is 0830.
You're going to get two two per box
essentially. Then the star lights you're
getting about three per case. Ultras
three ultra overframe three per case.
And then starlights I put at one every
two cases because starlightly overframe
because that was kind of what happened
with me. I'm mixing all the terminology
that should say extended art but you
know I struggle with that. So, when you
subtract out the chances to get ultra
secret, Starlight, ultra overframe,
starlight overframe, you get uh 72.8% of
the time, you're going to get a super
rare and eight commons, which is the
lowest possible. That's the worst thing
you can pull basically most of the time.
There is ultra there are some ultras
that are like 10 cents, but uh in
theory, that would be your low bar for
like high pulls. So, in every pack,
you're going to get I average at 2 cents
per common cuz you can usually bulk out
stuff at 2 cents per common to people
and uh people aren't really buying
individual common. So, 2 cents per
common there. I got 50 cents on the
super rares. I added all these up, all
the super rares, and then averaged them
by dividing the number of super rares.
50 cents is the average. So, when you
get a super rare, you're probably going
to get a 50-cent card or on the median
time. Then there's an ultra rare, which
you will get $1.78.
I realized how bad the ultra rares in
this set. If you take a look, uh they
just don't add a lot of value, but there
are a couple of good ones like Griffo at
1150 and Angela Key, whatever that card
is called at $6.99. I didn't put the
full names on here, but after that it's
like we're looking at $1 to $2 on TCG
player. Pretty brutal on a lot of those.
So, you're not getting a ton there. Then
on the secret rares, you're getting
$15.50.
A lot of the secrets are actually pretty
brutal. Pot of sloth and black chaos
carry this set hard. Alistister being 11
and then it's like, whoa, $6 and below.
Not too pretty. Then for the Starlight
rares, uh just the regular Starlights,
the average ends up being $40. So,
pretty good average there, but you're
only getting threeish perks.
Occasionally in these you'll get more or
less two or four or something like that.
Ultra overframes actually less in this
set. Crazy. These are not that bad. BLS
$38. Starlight rares are a little bit
more. I guess people just want shiny
cards. So only $29 there. And then 202
for the Starlight overframes mostly
because the the top two are really
expensive. Then you do the average per
pack. So you do the multiplier. You're
getting 16 cents per pack on commons
which is 2 cents a card. Then on the
super rares, you're going to get 36
cents because you're only getting 72% of
the time on 50 cents. Then 16% of the
time, uh, times the 178, you're getting
30 cents in ultra rare expected value.
Then 8.3% of the time, you're getting
$15. That's 129. Looks like the secret
rares are the strongest actual
representation for value in these boxes.
Then on the Starlights, you're getting
four 41. That's cuz they're so hard to
pull. Same thing with ultra overframes
at 29 cents and 34 cents for the
Starllet overframes. So, they all add a
little bit of a chance to get something
nice, but they don't don't add that much
because they are so hard to pull. That's
average dollars per pack. The expected
value is here. Okay, that other column I
needed to remove cuz I messed something
up earlier, but it's this is the correct
column here. So, you end up with $3.15
from a Chaos Origins pack. So, you
actually get $3.92
because you add all of these up, all the
values you're getting out of there, and
then you times the 2 * 8 to get the 16,
which I actually guess I could I I did
this for really weird, but you get
almost $45, which is the pack cost.
That's one I found on eBay, but you did
have to pay shipping. Buying individual
packs is never a good idea anyway
because a lot of them can be mapped on
current sets. So, usually want to buy
booster boxes, but I tried to compare it
with some loose packs that are
available. you only lose about 13 cents
on expected value. Then on the box EV,
it's $94.112
if you just take the 392 time 24 packs
in a box. And at $80 on eBay right now,
you can actually go up in terms of
median expected value. And then if you
go case, which $930 was the cheapest
one, I think it was from Canada, you
actually end up going over $200, which
is actually pretty insane. So, the
prices of the singles are actually doing
well enough that it seems like this is
almost a worthwhile set to open, but you
do have to keep in mind this is median
and you can still get a lot of bad luck.
And of course, this the values do not
factor in selling cards. Some people
don't even sell cards. They don't sell
bulk. They don't sell any of their
cards. They don't do shipping, which
you'll pay ship, you know, fees for.
You'll pay the shipping cost, etc. So,
even if they do, you do pull median and
you make money. you have to factor that
in for selling it. If you trade in your
local store, it's going to be at a
percentage. So, even when it does super
well, you got to keep that in mind. But
Chaos Origin being pretty awesome. So,
you compare that to Mammo, which you are
losing money on average. It's like,
okay, that looks pretty good at first,
but then you look at Chaos Word, you're
like, "Wow, that's pretty amazing." And
the interesting thing about this math is
a lot of times the prices catch up to
each other. So, this case cost at 930 is
actually one of the only listed ones on
eBay. There are a bunch at like 1,100.
So, right around where the case value
would be. That is what uh that is what
the value is. So, it kind of matches up
a lot of the time with what you can
expect to pull. That's because the
economy of the singles usually matches
up a lot with the sealed if possible.
Because people do this math. They're
like, "Okay, I open this much in value.
Uh let's see if I can list them at
this." And a lot of the stores are able
to kind of hold a number because of
that. They know, okay, I need to list it
for this to like even get close to what
I paid for it. and individuals will sell
below, but they only have a small stock
of one or two bowls that they opened up
and then they're gone. So, overall, I
thought this was just a really
interesting look at it. And it does show
what to expect when opening a Mammo
pack. I would expect the average to
actually be more like uh unlikely
because average is just averaging the
prices. It doesn't mean the average
person or the average time. The actual
average is probably more like the median
low because it's 96.45% of the time
you're going to get that median low and
get absolutely cooked on the values. But
the reason people are opening the set is
that median high. As I said earlier,
it's that massive grandmaster chase. And
I've had tons of people message me,
Ruxen, I have no idea what to do. I
pulled this crazy card. I don't know
what to do about it. You know, I'm so
excited. I pulled a massive Grandmaster.
All of those people are the reason it's
being open. It's being bought at $35 or
$40 or $45 or whatever. I guess at the
end I have to answer if I recommend this
set. Based on my original pull rates, I
would recommend it. Even with the 96%
chance, it's a really fun time and the
opportunity is just crazy if you do pull
such an expensive card. Yu-Gi-Oh has not
had the craziness of a card like this
like ever. Unless you're opening LOB,
which is $2,000 a pack versus this is
$10 a pack or $35 for mini box, which oh
my gosh, $35. Like it is expensive per
card, but compare it to any other pack
that would have an opportunity to pull
something like this. It's literally a
tiny fraction of what those would cost.
So, in that regard, yes, I would
recommend for a fun time. I mean, you
shouldn't go below a lot because 96% of
the time, you're going to lose a lot of
your money. However, because of the
random stories and my own whatnot stream
and seems like a lot of clumping going
on, it is really scary to open this
because that 96% quickly becomes 98%
99%. We pull no Starlight full arts and
no grand masters and 90 mini boxes on
whatnot. None. Just nine ultra extended
arts and only a couple of Starlights as
well. I was getting 15% on my original
openings. I was getting like 5% in that
stream. I've seen other people getting
five, six full arts in just a few mini
boxes. So, it's clear there is a random
ratio or clumping issue. So, if you love
to just roll the dice and hope you get
that crazy lucky box with like three
full arts in it, and you don't care that
you have a 99% chance to fail, this is
the product for you. I will be opening
some for myself cuz I have yet to do
that. I'm going to be searching Walmart
soon. Hopefully, I can find a couple
boxes. If not, I do have a few more
boxes I can open up instead that I
ordered on Walmart.com. So, I'll be
opening those soon, determining if I'm
going to open more. I'm excited to open
some for myself because I do want that
Dark Magician full art and obviously a
grandmaster. But, as I've seen with my
own numbers, it is going to be very,
very difficult. And I figured if you're
thinking about opening this set as well,
you should see these numbers and decide
for yourself is 96% chance like like to
fail really good enough and maybe even
worse based on some of the clumping or
maybe better. You know, maybe you get
the clumped box and it averages out to
96%. But here is the data. And if you
made it through this math video, I
appreciate you guys watching. I figured
it'd be a valuable asset for the
community and people trying to open this
up. I know it's made me think a little
bit as well. I'm a little scared to open
a lot more of this. So, make sure you
subscribe. Keep an eye out for more
Mammo openings. We're going to have
Childhood Yu-Gi-Oh and Dual Kingdom
Conquest coming back very soon. So, keep
an eye out for tomorrow. That it'll be
tomorrow for DualS Kingdom Quunkos and
then Childhood Yu-Gi-Oh the next day.
So, thank you guys for watching. I'll
see you guys in the next one. Shout out
to Brandon Cheney, Adams, Be Training,
King Tamaya, [music] Junior Party,
>> OH, AND ARCH LORD Christian first
edition, Shangalang, and Crypto Poppy
Mike for your support as ultimate
members.
>> Oh [screaming]
my goodness, THE BLUE EYES WHITE DRAGON.
[screaming]
And I'll see you guys next time. Peace.