Is Bitcoin Heading for a Major Correction? Bitget CEO Weighs In

It's a very important positive news that's not priced in yet. It will impact Bitcoin's price a lot. >> And I think going back to more than 100K is a very conservative guess or or speculation. One thing scares me about maybe Bitcoin price but more about this industry is that we don't see much real innovation in this cycle. [music] Hello, welcome back to Trade Secrets and today I'm joined by BitGet CEO Gracie Chen. Gracie, how are you doing? Hi, thank you for having me. >> Thanks for uh joining us on the show. Look, Gracie, we're going to get straight into it. If your whole career depended on this question, what would you say? Is Bitcoin going to end the year higher or lower than it is now? >> Now, oh my god, [laughter] I wish I have a crystal ball now on my hand and I can tell the future. Um I think well by the way today like cuz right now we know Bitcoin just went up from like the 63kish to 70k >> and that's mainly driven by more crypto friendly sort of you know clarity act and then the white house uh conference that President Trump hosted yesterday. So there were a lot of hypes right now. But if I'm going to pretend like 70k versus end of the year, um I I think this is really hard to predict and and it depends on a few factors uh that that that is totally out of our control, right? like like for example whether there's a interest rate increase end of this year like the FOMC interest uh increase I think the prediction um right now is around 30% plus that there will well be an increase if and if that happens bitcoin price should go down uh at least theoretically but then uh bitcoin is so much different than it was like 10 years ago now it's so integrated into into the traditional financial industry and the macroeconomics. So my guess is um maybe around the same range wouldn't be too different than it is now like slightly lower like 10 10k 20k um minus and plus I think that's my more responsible guess but if you force me to take a side I I would say I hope at least that bitcoin price is higher. Now you mentioned as well the optimism around the White House and you know we look all over social media now and a lot of Bitcoiners are getting excited at the potential for Donald Trump to start going in and aggressively buying Bitcoin. Do you think this is a realistic possibility before the end of his administration or do you think it's a bit all talk probably not going to happen? You mean the uh the US na national reserve sort of a bitcoin purchase power right? Um within the next two years my personal guess on that is I think it's unlikely. uh reasons are um if you look at the uh the Trump administration's real action for the at least past the past one year um I don't think adding Bitcoin into the national reserve is something that's like naively you know if I want it it happens sort of play. I'm pretty sure at least the current Trump administration is still relatively crypto friendly, but to add uh Bitcoin into the national reserve in terms of purchasing more Bitcoin, that would be a much bigger discussion and a lot of debates, a lot of you know Congress meetings, etc. between two parties, between you know, different stakeholders in this. So that's not just a simple thing. Uh although I I I hope to uh I hope to see that but I think um just from a policy perspective uh it's probably unlikely and if it is that simple maybe it's done already which we we at least don't see it coming right now. [music] If you like cutting edge markets alpha, make sure you're subscribed to Cointelegraph's market outlook newsletter. So, if it's unlikely, why do you think Trump alluded to that? >> I think Trump number one, Trump needed those votes, those um um those 20% of the US citizens who hold some some sort of cryptocurrency. Uh that's for one. And then um the the the president and and and maybe his family members are still pretty cry pro crypto by you know um co-ounding world liberty financials for example by passing Genius Act and trying to pass clarity act as soon as possible like all these different factors are part of that uh play and of course Bitcoin or you know USDT stable coin can enforce the strong power of for example the dollar dominance sort of narrative right like if you look at stablecoin it has to be packed to USD uh or something similar and that increased more scenario or ecosystem for US dollar dominance in terms of a global um coverage so from the national level, from the personal level, I I think there there are a lot of incentives that the current administration are being friendly to crypto and President Trump himself wanted it to be more at least a pro- crypto environment that we are seeing. Now, just speculating here, Gracie, if for whatever reason it turned out in two or three months they did actually start accumulating and they added Bitcoin to the reserve, how would that change your thoughts on the end ofear price for Bitcoin? Are all bets off then and we potentially go back to 100,000, go towards alltime highs? Um, what do you see? Yeah, I think if if that happens because it's a very important positive news that's not priced in yet, it will impact Bitcoin's price a lot. >> And I think going back to more than 100K is a very conservative guess or or speculation in terms of that. Um because the the the new purchase power from this particular narrative that you're talking about is not just about the US. It's also about about um you know states level in the US and many other smaller countries who are looking at how the United States or Fed level uh incorporating their national reserve uh which as a industry participant in crypto I'm definitely optimistic that um at least I think Bitcoin is digital gold and it's more valuable than gold um in the future by valuable more valuable what I mean is maybe the market cap one day Bitcoin market cap will surpass gold it's our me millennials sort of mindset I hope yeah um many national leaders etc share that mindset but again this is highly speculative and it is personal opinion so I wouldn't be able to represent beette on that and and um and no financial advice I so give enough claim disclaimers here. >> Yeah. No, absolutely. It's uh it's a show where there's no financial advice, just all opinions, predictions, and guesses. So, [laughter] um tell us Gracie, besides the price, then if that does happen and Trump does execute the accumulation of Bitcoin this year, outside of Bitcoin's price, what happens for the rest of the world? You mentioned smaller countries and states. Do you think it becomes a domino effect and very quickly where other countries start going well if the US have started doing it we must do it and they jump on really quickly or it will still be a slow effect for other countries? >> I think it will be a gradual effect um and it will impact a lot of countries but not all at least I don't see China going after that. So there are still many other big economists who are not that friendly when it goes to cryptocurrency. Um but many smaller countries for example Czech Republic I think uh a few one or two years earlier Czech was also um discussing like on their Congress level whether they should also buy Bitcoin as part of the national reserve. Right. So, so, so I think there are many economists who will follow as a domino effect, but it wouldn't be all and you wouldn't be like us start to do this in let's say November and then everyone follows in December. It wouldn't be that fast because everyone has their own um political system that they need to navigate in order for this to come true. But I'm guessing you know maybe maybe 10 countries 10 more countries that we we will see that really started to purchase um within I don't know half a year but again those are very speculative and I'm I'm not a political expert so it's based on my know gut feelings. Does that [snorts] push the the milliondoll Bitcoin mark that you know we've had Brian Armstrong, we've had Kathy Wood say that's a potential before 2030. If we do see an accumulation by the US government and then other countries start accumulating as well, do you think that million dollar price mark is potentially going to happen sooner than 2030? a million dollar price mark. I think that's very optimistic. Um it's it's nearly 15 times more than 15 times than the price now and sorry less than 15 times but around there. But I I I actually personally I don't think it will be uh achieved within 2030. The reason being if you look at the past four year Bitcoin cycles the increase of like the ratio of the alltime high in that cycle and alltime low in that cycle keep decreasing. So if we calculate this using the past four year cycle which the low is I don't know like like 1 point uh 16 1617K after FTX collapse and then to 100 uh sorry 126k which was you know before 1010 last year um that's about an eight times. So if that happens again and we consider I don't know 60k as this year's um um alltime low even if you times that by eight or seven you wouldn't hit 1 million. So it's just speculative mathematics that that I'm doing here. Um but again my my point is within four years uh and the present Bitcoin cycle um 100 million price mark is very optimistic >> and [snorts] do you think that formula stays pretty much in place regardless of what major catalyst like you know nation buying Bitcoin um you know ramping up across the world you think that doesn't change that formula of every cycle the the all-time high and all-time low gap gets smaller and smaller. uh my personal take on that is uh I still stand by my narrative and the rational and logic because if you look at again the last four year cycle all-time high was created mainly because of the institutional purchase power >> and for all those you know major companies including ETF and DAT holders >> purchasing so much Bitcoin again the increase is seven eight times >> of the alltime high and and alltime low. So uh for the same thing to happen I think you already need at national level solo purchase power and it's not just one nation. Hopefully it's a lot of nations. So if we can have another seven times of the current um autumn low I think that's already quite a base case or even optimistic case already. Um and and that's at least that's how I think about it. And is there anything that scares you about Bitcoin right now at Pricey? >> I I think one thing scares me about maybe Bitcoin price but more about this industry is that we don't see much real innovation in this cycle. all the innovations um that are meaningful are DAX or CEX related um you know R RWAS real world assets it's some it's somehow trading related it does make sense because uh when people said blockchain can be you know web three and revolutionizing web two and you know decentralized and gify NFT etc I didn't really buy in that and I think the the result as well as memecoin I I just hate memes. I'm very um very public about this and and people some of my users hate me for that because Bitcoin uh big does listed some does list some >> yes of course >> part of us being an exchange uh but at least myself I I don't like speculative uh tokens like memes um but that brought up the the the issue in terms of yeah if you look at the past four years let's say after FTX collapse What are some real innovation you can think of? I can think of hyperlquid. I can think of you know poly market prediction market. Um maybe Athena then no much left there. Maybe RWA is like some some great companies um broker dealer license um um companies like Alpaka who helped us and Binance to offer um US stocks to our global users. But they are all finance and trading related. So that's one thing I worry about this industry. um the innovations in cryptocurrency industry is so little that if you look at maybe our next door neighbor of AI industry >> where there so many um killer apps coming up and and existed for the past few years a lot of talents also migrated to um AI and and you know there's so there's so much more development ment over there. So that's something I worry about our industry. >> And now not only with talent, people say regarding AI but also the capital as well. A lot of people point to AI it is taking capital away from crypto but what you were saying about innovation. Do you think that is to do with maybe the the lack of venture capital funds now coming into crypto or more so the fact that there's so much regulatory un certainty at the moment? You know, we're still waiting for the clarity act that people are maybe holding back on on building what they want to build until they get a little bit more certainty and as a result more funds flowing in from VCs. Uh I think a ch it's a chicken and egg problem because there are less innovation and less people who are really seriously building something that users need then there are less opportunities for um capital increase and hence less VC and hence project. So it's a spiraly down or it wouldn't be that spiral yet but it's it is for sure a spiraly down sort of effect that um that we need all of those factors to to be able to work. Another thing is at least for the previous cycles a lot of projects who raised a lot of funds from their community from their investors they uh then listed on major exchanges like Binance and US >> and then the projects just stop really innovative. >> Yeah. this mechanism like you get a lot of uh uh tokens um either in Ethereum or Bitcoin or stable coin um and and then you you is your own token sort of like the ICO model very much similar to IPO right um but you you you you were ICOed or IPOed in that in that perspective without having a really matured product you are just pitching or you have a good relationship with exchanges maybe um you've get your your tokens listed but the product market fit for example is not there so it doesn't reward people who are really building so I think there are a lot of different factors like the mechanism itself of of token during an ICO um and and then less liquidity in many sectors maybe 1010 last year after that we see we saw a 30 to 40% drop of our users trading volume and keep in mind we are a big exchange we are top five exchange and then for the smaller exchanges only June this year June July this year I've seen three exchanges going down um yeah so those are are quite tragic in my opinion but I think um for example exchanges going down may continue happen any exchanges smaller than maybe a top 10 exchange. I think it's dangerous to uh to put their money there and it is hard to uh run an exchange um and to build credibility to build trust to maintain a good product and and and high security level. So um yeah, so the these are all different factors that come into play. So, Bit being one of the the biggest five exchanges, as you said before, when you do see other major exchanges shut down, being a competitor, is it something that you're happy about or is it something that's upsetting because it says something bigger about the industry? >> Uh, I'm definitely not happy about that. Uh, by the way, there were exchanges that I like for them funders that I I knew. Um, but but I lost cont contact to them now. Like they they just don't reply any message. I've even had money in one of those exchanges that went down recently. Not a lot, just like a thousand USDT when I was testing some altcoins that they listed but we did not. But but but again if if that happens to me I think the retail users are facing a more serious loss um by those exchanges going down and that will hurt the industry. So I wouldn't be happy for that. Um but but I would I would say um just very subjectively uh we need to look at this from many different perspective from a users protection perspective from for example me running exchange like what what what can we learn from for example X going down like it was one of the largest exchanges who invented Perpetual and Perpetual is a key business um um or key asset that we enable our users to trade yet BMAX went down and Arthur Hay is like taking a break recently. I think I saw I saw a tweet the other day that he is experimenting with his health or what but basically um those people behind those exchanges. Um I think I think I just use those examples to keep reminding myself and our team that we need really need to continue innovating not like sleeping on our previous achievement. We really need to think about what our users need, what our retail users need, what our institutional users need and be really uh stay to the so-called first principle. And what is PR first principle? What is uh the the foundation of running exchanges is you you know you provide products that users need. you um you keep your you you he keep hakers away like you don't lose lose fund like what I did last year and you um continue you know it iterating and have a strong team that it's not like doesn't sleep but pretty much like they don't sleep and they continue work hard right the the good quality will always beat the bad quality the cheaper price will beat the the more expensive price it's just simple like that and that's what what I call first first principle in our industry. >> Now [snorts] you mentioned before that you you hate meme coins. Um obviously across the board right now meme coins are red. Can you speculate for us Gracie? Do you think there is a time where we see another memecoin mania? Much against your wishes of course. Well, we see another meme meme coin mania like um about one and a half year ago when for example Trump issued is his coin. I well there will be I doubt I doubt the reason I doubt I think I think number one there will always be some altcoins that perform very very very well like 100 times in a day or 10,000 times in a day. That's very common. There will always be one or two tokens like that on one day but um but it doesn't mean it will stay there right it can it can also go go down much faster and and much stronger ultimately I look at the underlying value and what this token is creating as a value or or as utility but by default doesn't create that sort of value uh if you say community is a value okay maybe um but again the if if if everyone is making money who is losing money uh it won't just happen like um like before and and I guess a lot of meme coins that performed crazily in the past two years if you look at their current price you also saw the playbook like retails are not stupid they they they were they they they were fooled once I don't think they want to be food again. Um, so that's that's that's how I look at it. But while there will be another, you know, certain at least certain people who strongly believe in certain altcoins and then those altcoins also perform very well. I think again just mathematically this will always happen. But if you look at this as a bigger group, as a longer term, it wouldn't be sustainable for all the altcoins to go, you know, crazy like that. >> Is there an altcoin with utility that you're particularly bullish on at the moment? Um although although industry saw some biff that that we have with hyperlquid, I I I do like hyperlquid and I think hype also went up a lot yesterday because of the more um crypto friendly policy towards them. So that's probably one alcoin that I'm bullish on right now, especially if SFTC really find a way to let Hyperlquid enter the US market properly. Um, but I'm like today I don't really hold any altcoins. Most of my portfolio are in um either Bitcoin or like SP500. I don't I also don't trade that much because of my busy schedule running a large exchange. >> So um I don't even hold Ethereum and Solana nowadays. Maybe a little like less than 1% of my portfolio. But yeah, most of my um portfolio are in Bitcoin and um uh US stocks. So, as somebody that just holds Bitcoin as part of its digital assets portfolio, would you say between now and the end of the year, obviously a lot of people thought that $60,000 was the bottom for Bitcoin. Would you say it would be smarter for retail investors to DCA from now until the end of the year or look at now as kind of near enough to the bottom and put in a larger stack now? Um well at least other than Bitcoin and US stocks I also have a lot of stable coin and that says something about my personal opinion on Bitcoin's price and maybe asset price that I'm parking my stable coin there just doing three 4% annual return doing some wealth management but parked there waiting for opportunities to buy back those assets. Yeah. So to answer your question, I'm just telling you how my portfolio looks like. And I think that kind of answer the question in terms of um whether 70k is the all-time low in this cycle. Um I I doubt that. Uh I do think Bitcoin price is highly volatile and DCA is a good strategy rather than all in. Um but again, this is no financial advice and I might I might be wrong. I I I may I may even hope that I'm wrong. Um >> because I I just don't want to be that risky in terms of holding maybe 100% of my portfolio in Bitcoin. >> And you know, as well, Gracie, every analyst and every executive has a different take on where Bitcoin is going. Last year, we saw a lot of them were wrong. Um you know, and this year there's a lot of people that are saying Bitcoin might bottom in October. And then, you know, others have been talking around it. it has to go down to 40,000 before we see like a real bottom as well. So for the retail investor that's hearing all these different price predictions and not knowing where the bottom is, it can be a bit overwhelming. Uh what would you say to to your everyday retail investor on taking on these bits of information? Uh I would say 50k is a number that I'm looking at for my personal uh bitcoin buyback sort of price. But again keep in mind I'm not an analyst. I'm uh I'm just an exchange CEO and we we are not good at analyzing bitcoin price. We we are just good at providing a trading platform for all the analysts and traders to uh to act and to trade. So uh I wouldn't say whatever I predicted is that meaningful but again it's it's just my personal um sort of thought around around I don't have a uh a particular date or month in mind that I think you know Bitcoin could hit 50k. Um later this year might be a a good estimate. um or or maybe next year at least if you compare again the four-year cycle um just like ruler by ruler sort of comparison you know November 2022 was the last um alltime low um but I think the catalyst could be very different at least uh right now I don't see major exchanges having issue like what FTX did uh because FTX sort of problem happened not because of exchange change business being being troublesome, it's mainly because they coming their users fund and I think all the centralized exchanges learned uh a lot from that lesson that we don't touch you this fund. I think that's very very key. Um but is there other market players in the industry that could face black swan event? I think there are um I can't I can't give names now. I do have a few candidates in mind but I I just don't want to uh say that out uh because it's again very speculative and it may have an impact um but I think anyone who who is very big but not having a proper um for example auditing and uh um safeguarding of uh users asset and then compliance like all these issues might be problems to cause a black swan event. And if that happens, um, and again, if interest rate keeps going up, I think those are reasons that Bitcoin price can go lower than it is now. >> Amazing, Gracie. Thank you so much for joining us on Trade Secrets. Okay, thank you. [music] [music] >> [music]