Iran War, USO, gold, silver, S&P500, SPY, QQQ, NVDA, GLD, SLV, RTX, Stock Market Crash or Not

Duration: 4:23 671 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

The recent escalation involving air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran against Israeli cities and American military bases in the Middle East, has prompted a critical look at how such geopolitical tensions influence financial markets. While there is hope that civilian casualties will be minimized, investors are urged to remain vigilant regarding their portfolios amidst this volatility. The speaker analyzes historical data from the past three years to understand patterns between military conflicts in the region and market reactions, noting specifically that while history does not guarantee future outcomes, having a historical perspective prevents panic-driven decisions based on fear alone rather than factual analysis. Contrary to common expectations of immediate price surges during wartime, the video reveals that oil prices tracked by the USO ETF have remained surprisingly stable since March 2023 despite various conflicts including attacks in Israel and strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen. The maximum price reached for USO has only been about three percent above current levels, suggesting that supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz have not yet faced a complete blockade which would be necessary to drive prices significantly higher. However, with oil tankers currently idling near the strait due to increased tension and volatility exceeding any point in the last three years, there is a possibility that USO could eventually break above its historical resistance level if the situation continues to deteriorate without resolution. In contrast to the muted reaction of energy stocks, precious metals have shown an upward trend regardless of whether one attributes it to fear or conflict-induced demand; both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) ETFs continue to rise even as military engagements persist in the region. Similarly, defense contractor RTX has seen its stock price increase directly linked to these ongoing conflicts, while major technology indices like the S&P 500 represented by SPY and the NASDAQ 100 tracked by QQQ have remained largely unaffected by Middle East fighting but did experience significant drops following tariff announcements in March. Notably, Nvidia, a leading player in the artificial intelligence sector, has stayed relatively flat or declined slightly immediately after military escalations, further illustrating that stock market reactions to regional wars are complex and do not always follow traditional risk-on narratives where equities might be expected to crash solely due to war news. Ultimately, the analysis concludes that while historical data shows limited immediate impact of Middle East conflicts on broad US equity indices compared to policy shifts like tariffs, investors must still monitor specific sectors such as energy supply routes and defense manufacturing closely for potential breakout scenarios. The speaker emphasizes that past outcomes do not dictate future events but provide a necessary framework to avoid flying blind during times of uncertainty. As always, the video serves an educational purpose rather than offering financial advice, reminding viewers to consult with qualified professionals before making buy or sell decisions in this volatile environment where geopolitical risks and economic policies intersect unpredictably.

Read the full video transcript

Hi everyone, this is Dan. Yesterday, the US and Israel launched multiple air strikes across Iran, hitting military and government targets. Iran in retaliation launched missile attacks on Israel and on several US military bases in the Middle East. While we hope that the casualties among the civilians will be minimized, we also need to watch for our financial investments. I looked into how Middle East military conflicts in the last three years have affected the US stock market and the prices of oil, gold, and silver and came to some very interesting conclusions. If you care about your investments, you might want to watch this video. I want to caution you that historical outcomes do not determine what will happen in the next few days. But having a historical perspective is certainly better than flying blind or just ringing our hands worrying about what will happen to our investments in the next few days. Let's continue. We'll look at the oil ETF USO first. This chart shows the weekly price of USO since March of 2023. I have labeled the military conflicts during this time period as well as tariff announcements in March and April of 2025. One is the day when Hamas attacked the civilians in Israel. Two is when the US bombed the Houthis in Yemen. Three is when the US bombed the Iran nuclear facilities. Four is a US air strike on Syria targeting ISIS and al-Qaeda linked militants. Five is the period when sweeping tariffs increases in the US were announced. Looking at this chart, I came to the following conclusions. First of all, USO did not go up after military conflicts. Maximum price of USO since 2023 has been about 84.5 which is only 3% above the current level. One thing worthy of mention is that during these past military conflicts, the straight of Hammoose was never completely blocked. As of today, the situation at the straight of Hammoose is more volatile than any time in the last 3 years. Many oil tankers have been idling or turning back near the straight of Hammoose. If the situation continues to be so tense, USO might just break above the historical resistance level of 84.5. Let's look at SPY, the ETF that mimics the movement of the S&P 500. We can see that SPY was not much affected by military conflicts. The tariffs announced in March caused significant drop in spy. Let's look at Triple Q, which is the ETF that mimics the movements of the NASDAQ 100. We can see that Triple Q was not much affected by military conflicts in the Middle East, but the terrorist announcements in March caused significant drop in Triple Q. This is Nvidia which is the leading stock of the very hot AI sector recently. We can see that Nvidia has been mostly flat or even down slightly immediately after military conflicts in the Middle East. Let's look at the gold ETF GLD. We can see that GLD has been going up in spite of the military conflicts or some say it's because of the military conflicts. This is the silver ETF SLV. Just like gold, SLV has been going up in spite of the military conflicts or because of the conflicts. Finally, let's look at the defense stock RTX Rathon. We can see that RTX has been going up because of the military conflicts. If you find this video to be helpful or interesting, please click the like, subscribe, and notification buttons. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.