Video summary
The latest election poll from i24NEWS reveals only minor shifts compared to previous data, presenting a complex landscape for Israel's upcoming vote. Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling Likud party leads with 27 seats, followed by Gadi Eisenkot's center-left Yesh Atid party with 21, while the centrist anti-Netanyahu alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid holds 10. The fragmented right-wing and opposition fields include various ultra-Orthodox parties, Arab lists, and far-right factions like Otzma Yehudit and Am Yisrael, each securing between five and eight seats. When aggregated, the coalition supporting Netanyahu is projected to hold 60 seats against 48 for the Zionist opposition and 12 for Arab parties; since a majority of 61 is required to form a government, no single bloc currently possesses enough power to govern alone, suggesting a potential need for a second round or further negotiations.
Tensions within the opposition camp have escalated into a public dispute over who should lead the alternative government if Netanyahu fails to secure a mandate. While Gadi Eisenkot argues that the leader of the largest party naturally assumes the role of Prime Minister candidate, both Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman contend that their smaller parties are better positioned to form a coalition due to their right-wing credentials, citing the 2021 precedent where Bennett became PM with only six seats. This internal infighting represents a significant strategic error for the opposition, as they waste valuable time forty days before the election fighting among themselves rather than consolidating votes against Netanyahu, thereby risking another political stalemate similar to recent years.
The religious sphere of the election highlights a fascinating competition between Shas and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party for the same ultra-Orthodox and religious voters. Shas, led by Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, warns its followers that voting for Ben-Gvir is forbidden under Jewish law because he supports access to the Temple Mount, a stance that directly targets Ben-Gvir's far-right platform. Despite this clear doctrinal divide, polls indicate that 18% of Ben-Gvir's current supporters voted for Shas in the previous election, illustrating the nuanced nature of Israeli society where voters may balance religious sentiment with strong nationalist or ultra-nationalist views. This rivalry underscores how internal competition within political blocks can be just as decisive as the broader battle between left and right.
Ultimately, while the immediate outcome of whether Shas or Otzma Yehudit wins more votes may not drastically alter the final government composition, the choice carries profound implications for the long-term balance of power in Israeli politics. Analysts suggest that this specific electoral dynamic serves as an early indicator of shifting cultural currents and societal directions that will resonate decades into the future, potentially influencing political landscapes by 2028 or beyond. As the election clock ticks down with forty days remaining, the focus remains on how these subtle but significant voter preferences will shape not just the next government, but the trajectory of Israeli culture and policy for generations to come.
Read the full video transcript
Let's start with the poll of the week.
Any real changes from this week compared
to last?
>> Minor changes, Nicole. I don't think
much for those abroad to worry about,
but let's quickly go through the numbers
that we have. You can see them on your
screen. Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling
Likud party with 27. Gadi Eisenkot, a
center-left party, Yesh Atid, with 21.
The Yachad, the party of Naftali Bennett
and Yair Lapid, centrist anti-Netanyahu
with 10. The Democrats, left-wing
Zionist, with with nine. The Ashkenazi
ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah
Judaism, with eight. Otzma Yehudit, the
far-right list of Itamar Ben-Gvir, with
eight. The Joint List of Arab parties
with seven. Yisrael Beiteinu, led by
Avigdor Lieberman, right-wing
anti-Netanyahu, with seven. Shas, the
Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party, with
seven. Religious Zionism, Zehut,
Betzalel Smotrich's party, a far-right
party, with six. The Ra'am party of
Mansour Abbas, an Arab party, but
interested in Arab-Jewish
reconciliation, or at least working
together in politics, with five. And the
Am Yisrael party, the new party of Ophir
Winter, a Nicole, a right-wing far-right
party, with five.
>> All right, interesting.
>> And, just so we actually bring the
bottom line for our viewers, to make
that come together from the party list,
60 for the current parties of the
coalition or those expected to support
Netanyahu, 48
for the Zionist parties of the
opposition, and 12 seats for the Arab
list. You need 61 to set up a
government. So, even in this poll,
nobody can do it. Although, this is a
good showing for the coalition compared
to polls in other Israeli news outlets,
which generally give the coalition over
the past few days between 50 and 54
seats. This is a better poll and has
been over the course of months for the
coalition. If the results were to be the
way they are in those other polls, and
even in this poll, Nicole, we would be
sitting on the day after the election,
potentially looking at a round two.
>> All right, Owen, while this might show
good for the coalition, let's talk about
the opposition. A bit of a yelling match
that we continue to see. Write down what
we saw today between Eisenkot, Bennett,
and Lieberman.
>> Right. Well, on the right-wing block,
Nicole, you have a clear candidate for
Prime Minister and a consensus choice,
Benjamin Netanyahu, of course. But in
the other block, it's more complicated.
There are two ways of looking at it. One
way of looking at it, I think, is the
obvious one, the common-sense one, which
is the person who leads the largest
party, leads the block, and is
essentially the candidate for Prime
Minister. And that would be Gadi
Eisenkot of the Yesh Atid party. But not
everyone sees it that way. If you ask
Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman,
they'll say, "No, that's not the
criteria. The criteria should be who's
more more likely to set up the
government?" Meaning, "You, Eisenkot,
are just too left-wing. In an Israeli
political culture and an Israeli public
that still tilts to the right because of
our right-wing bonafides, we may have
less less seats, but we're the ones who
are better placed to form a government.
In fact, that's exactly what happened in
in 2021, when Naftali Bennett with only
six seats in the Israeli Parliament, as
we all remember, became Prime Minister."
And anyway, Gadi Eisenkot giving a radio
interview this morning and laying into
both Bennett and Lieberman, but
especially Bennett, saying, "It has to
be that who leads Whoever leads the
largest party forms the government. It
can't be that what happened back in 2021
happens again." He doesn't like
rotations the way we had with the
Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz at
one point in the political stalemate
years. Lieberman and Bennett quick to
respond saying, "No, we should be Prime
Minister because we are the ones best
suited to form a government." Nicole,
this isn't only about the the principle
issue of who should be under principle.
This is obviously an issue of ambition.
Each of these three men wants to become
Prime Minister. But they all are hurt by
this, the opportunity cost. 40 days
until elections, Nicole, and an entire
day strategically lost to the opposition
because they were fighting with each
other and not trying to win votes from
the other side.
>> The election clock is certainly ticking,
Owen. Let's talk about the religious
sphere. Shas spiritual leader, Rabbi
Yitzhak Yosef, he warned voters not to
support politicians who sent the Temple
Mount. This is basically taking aim at
Ben-Gvir. But why would Shas supporters,
Shas voters even be thinking about
voting for Ben-Gvir? So it's my
Yahudits.
>> Because they're competing for the same
voters, Nicole. And what's fascinating
about Israeli politics is not
necessarily the competition between the
blocks, as crucial as that is to
understand the election and the outcome,
but within the blocks, how right-wing
parties fight with each other for
voters, how center-left parties compete
with each other for voters. And this is
a wonderful example. On one hand, you
have Shas, a Sephardi ultra-Orthodox
party, which plays on religious
sentimentalism, right? It wants those
people who wear black hats and are
Sephardi to vote for them. But also
wider public that just loves religion
and loves religious tradition and is
drawn to the party. People almost
universally with right-wing views in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That's one
side. The other side, Itamar Ben-Gvir.
People abroad know him. Far right, the
furthest part right part of the Israeli
political spectrum. He himself wears a
kippah, but not everybody in his list
does. He tries to cast a wider net to
people who are religious, who are
secular, but united by a far-right
perspective, particularly on issues of
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As you
mentioned, there's also this issue of
the Temple Mount. But let's hear what
Yitzhak Yosef, a leading rabbi, the
leading rabbi within the Shas movement,
had to say today about that question of
whether it's allowed for someone to vote
for Itamar Ben-Gvir. Here you go.
>> There's a temptation to vote for all
kinds of people who are not worthy.
It's forbidden under Jewish law to vote
for someone who does not fear God and
who goes up to the Temple Mount. That's
clear.
You have to vote only for people who
fear God and say words of Torah.
>> So Nicole, not only should you not vote
for Ben-Gvir, but you're not allowed to
under Jewish law. That's what Yitzhak
Yosef says. At any rate, as different as
these two parties are in their doctrine,
human beings are more complicated. And
there may be a single person on the one
hand has a strong sentiment toward
religion, but on the other hand likes
the full-throated nationalism or
ultra-nationalism of Itamar Ben-Gvir. It
is said that 18% of Ben-Gvir's current
supporters in polls voted for Shas last
time. Shas is obviously worried about
that. And so bringing out the biggest
gun of all, their leading rabbi, with
the biggest weapon of all, saying this
is against Jewish law to get them not to
vote for Ben-Gvir. The two parties split
on worldview on the specific issue
whether you can or can't go up to the
Temple Mount. But anyway, a fascinating
anecdote from Israeli society as we
parse through this election. Nicole, as
you mentioned, 40 days and 40 nights to
go. We're going to be flooded by
election news. But here on i24news,
we're going to build you your ark and
we'll navigate the turbulent waters.
>> We certainly will, both of us here in
studio, Owen. A A quick follow-up before
we change segments is what actual
difference would it make to the
coalition build-up if people vote for
Shas versus Otzma Yehudit?
>> None. At the end of the day, none.
It doesn't necessarily in this case
determine the outcome, but it does
determine in a subtle way, Nicole, the
balance of power in Israeli politics,
the balance of power within the
coalition if they form the coalition. It
says something about Israeli society
over the longer term. So you're right,
we may not come on October 28th on our
television and say, "This is what
decided the election." But we might just
come back in 2028 or 2029 or 2035 or
2040 and look back at this exchange and
said, "This was an early sign of
something brewing in Israeli society
about the way our culture is headed and
our politics are headed." That's why
it's still worth our attention.
>> It is certainly worth our attention to
see where this could go. Owen Altman
with a great breakdown, as always. Thank
you.