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How Close Are We To Proving UFOs? - Jesse Michels

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The discussion begins with a critical examination of the nature of UFO evidence, highlighting a significant disparity between the vast number of firsthand reports and tangible physical proof available to date. The speakers note that while there is an abundance of hearsay and sighting lists, concrete data such as recordings or verified crash sites remains scarce. A key point raised is the limitation of optical sensors like FLIR, which operate within the visible light spectrum (400–700 nanometers). Because anomalous aerial phenomena often move at speeds that cause them to crunch or stretch light, they frequently appear in infrared or ultraviolet spectrums rather than standard visual recordings. Despite this technological gap, photographic evidence exists; notable examples include the McMinnville photo from Oregon in the 1950s and the Calvine photo involving hikers in Scotland during the 1990s, both of which possess verified negatives that support their authenticity. Beyond optical imagery, the conversation shifts to physical material recovered by witnesses, specifically focusing on debris allegedly found near UFO crash sites. This evidence was reportedly forwarded from witness Jacquell Valet to Gary Nolan, a tenure-track professor at Stanford and Nobel Prize nominee who has conducted mass spectrometry analyses on these samples. The results indicate that certain isotope ratios within the materials do not naturally occur on Earth and fail to pattern-match with known asteroid compositions, suggesting an anomalous origin. However, when addressing large-scale saucers or a potential "hanger" scenario, the speakers argue against definitive proof of extraterrestrial origins in favor of probabilistic thinking. They reference statistician Thomas Bayes' model as a framework for scientific inquiry that avoids rigid adherence to null hypotheses, instead cataloging evidence based on probability levels rather than absolute certainty. A central theme regarding large-scale UFOs is the necessity of epistemic humility and an acknowledgment of geopolitical secrecy. The speakers posit that even if advanced technology or anti-gravity craft existed within a military hanger, it would be highly improbable for such assets to be declassified publicly. They argue that defense establishments prioritize tactical advantages and weaponization over public enlightenment, meaning any revolutionary technology discovered by the U.S. government—such as stealth bombers like the F-22 or F-35—is likely to remain classified indefinitely to maintain a strategic edge. This perspective suggests that while we can be 99% sure of the reality of unexplained aerial phenomena distinct from known aircraft, claiming absolute knowledge about their extraterrestrial nature requires accepting that some facts may never be publicly revealed due to national security interests and technological suppression similar to current AI developments. The dialogue also addresses skepticism regarding conspiracy theories versus genuine anomalies, using examples like Bigfoot or historical false flags such as the Gulf of Tonkin incident and the sinking of the USS Maine. The speakers distinguish between easily debunked hoaxes and complex phenomena that require a "horseshoe" theory rather than a simple disc shape to explain observations. They emphasize that believing in the reality of an event (like Bigfoot or UFOs) is not mutually exclusive with identifying specific conspiracy narratives as false; these are positive-sum concepts where one can accept existence while rejecting fabricated details. The conversation briefly touches on how certain high-profile conspiracies, such as those surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, have lost credibility because they alienate both political left and right simultaneously, whereas the UFO phenomenon maintains a unique space for belief despite intense scrutiny. Ultimately, the summary concludes that the current state of UFO research involves balancing probabilistic evidence with an understanding of institutional secrecy. While physical samples analyzed by experts like Gary Nolan provide compelling data regarding non-terrestrial isotopes, the absence of a public saucer in a hanger is attributed to deliberate government classification rather than mere lack of discovery. The speakers advocate for a nuanced approach that accepts the reality of anomalous aerial phenomena without demanding absolute proof of their origin or expecting immediate declassification of military assets. This balanced view allows for scientific investigation into sensor modalities and material evidence while maintaining humility regarding what can be definitively proven about our place in the universe versus what remains hidden behind layers of national security protocols.
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How is it the case, you know, that's a large cohort of people from different backgrounds all talking about things that they've seen or seen that they've seen or heard that someone's seen or been a so on and so forth. How is it the case that there is so much which is hearsay? >> Mhm. >> And so little which we have. Yes. to like the where is the actual tangible evidence? Not a recording that's on Fleer, not the story that somebody said, not a list of sightings. Like surely we should if there are this many we should have something >> for it. Yeah. Well, you again you do you have a massive database of you know firsthand reports. The fleer I think is important. It's a sensor modality that you know we see between 400 and 700 nanometers of the electromagnetic wave spectrum. Just because something's at the 800 nanometer mark or 300 nanometer mark doesn't mean it's fake, you know, like that is a real thing. So I think the fleer thing is is really important. And it feels like with UFOs they either crunch light or they stretch light because they move so fast. And so optical is not actually a good modality for them. usually they show up in infrared or in certain cases UV rays. So like uh the the ends actually of the visible spectrum. And so I do think that's like a really important question. Uh but then also there are photos like there's this McMinnville photo that was taken in Oregon in the ' 50s. There there's the Calvine photo which is you know from Scotland these hikers in the '9s and you know somebody from the British Ministry of Defense guy Nick Pope says that the Calvine photo is absolutely real. You have the negatives in both cases. Um, so you know, I do think you do have a decent amount of evidence. Now, what you're asking, I think, is why don't we have a a saucer unveiled at a hanger or something, >> piece of material that can be verifiably proven to be from something that's otherworldly? >> So, the the it's an interesting question. I don't think you can definitively prove that something is necessarily otherworldly. You have to look at a fact pattern that you know is this anomalous enough to say that it's not from here. And there's a guy named Gary Nolan who's a a Nobel Prize nominee every single year. He's a tenure professor at Stanford and he has crash materials in his lab. I've seen them. I've shown them on video on my show. They're small, but the, you know, they were basically given to him around UFO crash like like UFO crash witnesses mailed them to this guy Jacqu Valet. And Jacquell gave them to Gary Nolan. He's done mass spectrometry on them. He says that they have isotope ratios that don't naturally occur on Earth and they don't pattern match to asteroids as well. And so you have evidence like that. When it comes to like largecale saucers, I think you have to think probabilistically. So I there's this English statistician named Thomas Ba and his model is it's it's a way of scientific thinking but it's not necessarily like the Francis Bacon style where you go and you have this null hypothesis that you cling to at all costs. His is more you think about everything probabilistically and so you catalog something as low probability and you build up evidence. And so what I would say for the UFO phenomena is like everybody asks are UFOs real? I'm 99% sure that aerial phenomena in the sky that don't pattern match to you know planes like you know prosaic explanations where there's a nuclear link it that is that is fully real and then is there a conflation going on between that and like a saucer and a hanger like maybe I can't say in good faith that there definitely isn't because I haven't seen the saucer and the hanger right >> um so it's like you know it's this David Hume style quot you need the like ultimate like epistemic humility when it comes to that saucer in the hanger. Now, I can give you a million good reasons why if the American defense establishment I mean we haven't declassified an aerial uh program basically since I think the B2 stealth bomber like we you have you know F-22 F-35s I think those were uh uh uh unclassified upon their you know manufacturing 12 out of the 15 locked skunk works programs now are still classified so say you had this kind of ace in the hole crazy, you know, anti-gravity craft or whatever and it was in a hanger. I can give you a million different reasons why you would never let that see the light of day. You don't care about enlightening the public, inspiring them about other worlds. I mean, it it all go technology always gets weaponized and it's always used to confer a tactical advantage geopolitically and that will always take the day. That will always trump wanting to enlighten the public. It's going to do that with AI and all these other tech trees. So I think that would be the other reason. >> How do we know this isn't just a scop? >> I think it is a scop. I think there are scops. So So this is this is the real mind. >> [ __ ] horseshoe theory of UFOs. >> Not it's not a disc. It's a horseshoe. >> It is. Well, here's the thing. The the fact that something is real and it's a scup are positive sum, not not negative sum. So this is the total mind [ __ ] for people. How many if if Chris, you're a smart guy. If I were like, um, okay, Bigfoot, you know, exists. I promise it exists. And I tried to come up with some fact pattern around how it exists and like all this, you know, evidences, how would you ever believe me about Bigfoot? >> Uh, if you gave me sufficiently compelling evidence, I guess so. >> Well, most pe I don't know. I think the Bigfoot thing, you know, is is like pretty unlikely. They were like I can give you like other most scops are easy to figure out like the Gulf of Tonkan or something created the opaces around you know invading Vietnam where like I think it was like the first thing was like an attack on the USS Maddox and then there's like a second attack um under LBJ and it was just like a weather event and they claimed that it it was basically this false flag operation or the USS Maine. These these sorts of scops get figured out very quickly. Like does anybody believe the Epstein thing? Like, does anybody you talk to believe the Epstein? Nobody believes that. It's I don't The government doesn't believe that. >> I'm [ __ ] fascinated by that, dude. It is. The only person I've seen who appears to be happy with the outcome of it is actually Ben Shapiro. >> I was going to say that, too. >> The only guy that it's, you know what, one of those rare occurrences where both left and right are pissed off equally. >> Yes. >> You know, left pissed off because this sort of powerful banker appears and the reversal of the Trump administration, so on and so forth. the right's pissed off because they're like allergic to pedophilia and and and you know kind of want to stand up for kids and do all the rest of this stuff and you go >> everybody's pissed off. Is that Ben? >> Always one I don't know. >> He goes, "Guys, it's a it's we've decided you're a conspiracy theorist now." Like, what are you talking about, dude? Yeah, before we continue, if you haven't been feeling as sharp or energized as you'd like, getting your blood work done is the best place to start. 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