Video summary
Following a series of severe drone and missile attacks on civilian and oil infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, which injured 73 people including women and children, Riyadh has launched fresh retaliatory strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. These assaults represent the most devastating assault on Saudi territory in years, temporarily disrupting oil production facilities and marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The attacks occurred amidst a renewed push by the Saudi-led coalition to reclaim lost ground from the Iranian-backed Houthis, highlighting the volatile nature of the region as both sides engage in a dangerous cycle of retaliation that threatens regional stability.
The expert analysis suggests that while the Houthis demonstrated audacious capabilities with their drones and missiles, catching the Saudis somewhat off guard, the attacks are driven by a complex mix of Yemeni desperation and Iranian strategic interests. The Houthis appear to be operating on their own timetable rather than acting solely as a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, partly in response to Saudi enforcement of an aviation blockade that prevented a funeral plane from landing in Sana'a. However, the situation is further complicated by Iran's tightening grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which encourages the Houthis to amplify pressure on Saudi Arabia and US interests in the Red Sea, mirroring Tehran's support for Hezbollah against Israel.
Despite leading a formidable coalition for over a decade, the Saudis have struggled to achieve a decisive victory due to strategic limitations and internal fractures within their alliance. A primary handicap has been the reluctance of Riyadh to deploy ground troops directly into Yemen, a move that carries high casualty risks but is often necessary for territorial conquest. While the United Arab Emirates initially provided ground forces, recent political rifts between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have weakened the coalition's effectiveness, leaving the internationally recognized government in Aden as the primary fighting force that was previously successful until diplomatic pressures halted their advance near the port of Hodeidah.
Looking forward, experts argue that a turning point for the Saudi campaign may only occur if Riyadh commits fully to supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government while securing renewed American involvement to provide essential training and technical support. Currently, the United States appears disinterested in deepening its engagement in the conflict, which leaves the Saudis vulnerable to continued Houthi aggression. Without a complete shift in strategy that includes both ground commitments and robust international backing, the war is likely to persist with catastrophic humanitarian consequences for civilians in Yemen and ongoing threats to Saudi infrastructure and energy security.
Read the full video transcript
Saudi Arabia has launched fresh strikes
against Houthi targets in Yemen after
the Iranian-backed group carried out the
worst attack on Saudi territory in
years. 73 people, including women and
children, were injured following drone
and missile attacks on multiple civilian
and oil infrastructure sites across the
kingdom. The attacks temporarily shut
down some oil production facilities. It
follows a renewed push by the Saudiled
coalition fighting in Yemen to reclaim
territory from the Houthies. Well, to
talk more about that, we're joined by
Edmund Fit and Brown. He's the former UK
ambassador to Yemen and now a senior
fellow at the FDD. Great to have you
with us, Edmund. So, this was a a really
very audacious attack by the Houthis,
wasn't it? Were the Saudis caught off
guard to a certain extent?
>> To a certain extent, yes. I mean it is
difficult to defend against these
attacks and the Houthies have been doing
this you know there was obviously we've
just come out of a four-year sort of
truce but before the truce um the
Houthies were doing a lot of attacks
inside southern Saudi Arabia um they've
got the capability they they have they
have drones missiles and various other
options um and of course now recently
they've been focusing on attacking Saudi
assets uh both in the Red Sea itself
Saudi ships uh but also So Saudi oil
installations in the south of the
country. So yeah, I mean you could say
the Saudis were caught off guard, but
actually it's very hard to defend
against this stuff.
>> Is this about an increasingly desperate
Iran, you know, that it's cornered, it's
suffering economically, it's suffering
militarily? Is this about Iran lashing
out? Or is this the Houthis reacting to
their own losses in Yemen?
>> Well, if you ask different Yemen
[clears throat] experts, you'll get a
slightly different answer on this. My
view is that this is actually partly
Houthy and Yemendriven. I don't think
that the Houthies are acting simply as a
branch of the IRGC. I think they do have
their own Yemen agenda and they do have
some uh control over certainly the
timing and the extent of how they react.
We saw this earlier in the conflict
between the US and Iran uh that the
Houthies seem to be operating to their
own timetable. So I think we can trace
this particular escalation back to when
the Saudis enforced their aviation
blockade against the Houthis in Sar. The
Houthis sent a delegation to the funeral
of uh the late Ayatah Hamay and the
Saudis then challenged the right of that
plane to return and land in Sar and it
ended up landing in Heda instead which
is another Houthy controlled city. Um
but the Houthis then said, "Well, if
you're blockading us, then we're going
to blockade you." So there's an element
of Yemen timing. But you're absolutely
right, there is also an Iranian
dimension to this because as the uh
Iranians have been um putting a strangle
hold on the straight of Hormuz, the
Houthis have seen that they can also
multiply the effect of that in the Red
Sea and in the uh Babal Mandab Strait.
And at the same time, the Iranians have
attacked Saudi Arabia and US bases in
Saudi Arabia in retaliation against US
military action. And once again, as the
Saudis have looked a little bit
irresolute in the face of Iranian
aggression, um the Houthies have been
turning the screw on that. Uh and so I
think what another way of looking at
this is to say that whilst the Iranians
have their unresolved conflict with the
Americans, they are relying on the
Houthis to increase the pressure on
Saudi Arabia. just as they're relying on
Lebanese Hezbollah to increase the
pressure on Israel.
>> Now, Saudi Arabia, one of the richest
countries on earth, has been waging war
on the Houthis in Yemen for more than a
decade now. Um, and you know, the
results have been catastrophic for
civilians in Yemen. Why is it so hard
for them to defeat them? Do you think
they ever will? Could this be a turning
point perhaps?
Well, uh, so one point that has
definitely handicapped the Saudis in
Yemen has been their unwillingness to
put, uh, boots on the ground. You this
sort of this, uh, famous thing that
people are so alarmed at doing and with
good reason because if you put boots on
the ground, you take casualties. Um, but
you know, the Saudis were leading a
pretty, uh, formidable coalition against
the Houthis. Um but the only uh member
of that coalition that really got
involved on the ground inside Yemen was
the United Arab Emirates. The Emiratis
put put boots on the ground but the
Saudis and the Emiratis have fallen out
with each other at the moment and the
Emiratis are not part of the current
Saudi coalition. The other thing of
course was that you know essentially the
the model that the Saudis and the
Emiratis were pursuing in the Yemen
civil war was that the main fighting
would be uh undertaken by the
internationally recognized government of
Yemen which is headquartered in Aiden in
the south of the country. And indeed
that was a reasonably effective strategy
up until 2018. uh the internationally
recognized government forces backed by
the uh Saudis and the Emiratis and the
rest of their alliance uh were pushing
the Houthis back and they pushed them
back to the gates of Heda on the Red Sea
coast and they pushed them back in the
center of the country as well. Um but
then that stopped with the Stockholm
agreement there. The international
community was concerned about
interrupting the flow of humanitarian
goods through Heda and so the Saudis and
the um internationally recognized
government were persuaded uh to stop
their advance and not to take the port
of Heda. Now, um I would say that if for
the Saudis to win this conflict against
the Houthies, what they need is a
complete commitment to the
internationally recognized government,
but they also need the support of the
Americans and others who provide the
training and other technical support
that is so important to the Saudis in
conducting this campaign. So, the Saudis
need the Americans back in this game,
but at the moment, the US doesn't seem
terribly interested.
>> Edmund Fitzen Brown, great to talk to
you. Thank you so much.
>> Most welcome.